HIV prevalence and related risk behaviours in female seasonal farm workers in Souss Massa Draa, Morocco: results from a cross-sectional survey using cluster-based sampling.

OBJECTIVES: To determine prevalence of HIV and HIV-related behaviours in female seasonal farm workers (FSFWs) in two provinces of Souss Massa Draa (SMD) region in Morocco. SMD has a higher burden of HIV compared with other parts of Morocco and is characterised by a substantial aggregation of FSFW. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional HIV biobehavioural survey using cluster-based sampling of farms in the provinces Chtouka Aït Baha and Taroudant Ouled Teïma in 2014. HIV testing was done using the Determine HIV-1/2 rapid test and reactive specimens were tested using ELISA and western blot. Collected data were post hoc weighted for region-based stratification and adjusted for clustering effects using complex survey functions of SPSS (V.21). RESULTS: Among those eligible to participate, the response rate was 92.8%. HIV prevalence was 0.9% (95% CI 0.4% to 2.4%) among 520 recruited participants. A high proportion of respondents (67.7%) had no education. Ever having sex was reported by 79.8% and among these, 12.7% ever exchanged sex for money or goods. Sixty-one per cent reported condom use at most recent commercial vaginal sex in the past 12 months. STI symptom recognition was found to be low because 62.4% and 46.8% of FSFW could not report any STI symptoms in men and women, respectively. Twenty-seven per cent of respondents had an HIV test in the past 12 months. In multivariable analysis, those with primary or higher education (adjusted OR (aOR)=2.38, 95% CI 1.33 to 4.27) and those who participated in an HIV educational session at their workplace (aOR=11.00, 95% CI 3.99 to 30.31) had higher odds of ever been tested for HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Although we found a relatively low HIV prevalence among FSFW in SMD, HIV interventions should be intensified, in particular, in a subgroup of women who are involved in sex work.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. METHODS: The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys.

Trends in Adult Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Prevalence, Incidence and Urethral Discharge Case Reporting in Morocco over 1995-2015-Estimates Using the Spectrum-Sexually Transmitted Infection Model.

BACKGROUND: Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) trends to inform program planning and resource allocation. METHODS: The Spectrum modeling tool estimated prevalence and incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Morocco's 15- to 49-year-old population, based on prevalence surveys. Incident cases, broken down between symptomatic and asymptomatic, and treated versus untreated, were compared with urethral discharge (UD) case reports, to estimate reporting completeness among treated UD cases. RESULTS: Gonorrhea prevalence was estimated at 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14-1.0%) in women and 0.32% (0.12-0.87%) in men in 2015; chlamydia prevalences were 3.8% (95% CI, 2.1-6.4%) and 3.0% (95% CI, 1.7-5.1%). Corresponding estimated numbers of new cases in women and men in 2015 were 79,598 (95% CI, 23,918-256,206) and 112,013 (95% CI, 28,700-307,433) for gonorrhea, and 291,908 (95% CI, 161,064-524,270) and 314,032 (95% CI, 186,076-559,133) for chlamydia. Gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence had declined by an estimated 41% and 27%, respectively, over 1995 to 2015. Prevalence declines probably related to improved STI treatment coverage, and decreasing risk behaviors. Reporting completeness among treated UD cases was estimated at 46% to 77% in 2015. Reported UD cases corresponded to 13% of all estimated (symptomatic and asymptomatic) gonorrhea and chlamydia cases. CONCLUSIONS: STI declines and improvements in treatment coverage are consistent with Morocco's introduction of syndromic management in 2000, scale-up of prevention, and declining human immunodeficiency virus incidence. While gonorrhea is four-fold more common as cause of clinical UD cases than chlamydia, Morocco continues to suffer a large, untreated burden of chlamydia. Reliable monitoring of both STIs requires new periodic surveys and/or novel forms of affordable surveillance beyond high-risk populations.

Sex Differences in HIV Prevalence, Behavioral Risks and Prevention Needs Among Anglophone and Francophone Sub-Saharan African Migrants Living in Rabat, Morocco.

Morocco has experienced a dramatic increase of migration from sub-Sahara Africa during the past decade. Recently included among the most vulnerable populations cited in the Morocco National Strategic Plans on HIV/TB for 2012-2016, sub-Saharan Africa migrants living in an irregular administrative situation participated in a survey to provide baseline data about their socio-demographic, sexual and HIV testing behaviors and HIV and syphilis prevalence. Two surveys using respondent driven sampling were conducted in 2013 among males and females, ≥18 years, originating from sub-Saharan African countries and living and/or working in an irregular administrative situation in Rabat and residing at least 3 months in Morocco. Analysis was conducted to evaluate differences between the two samples and between females and males within each sample using the successive sampling estimator in RDS Analyst. Roughly 3 % of francophone and anglophone migrants were infected with HIV, whereas a statistically significantly higher percentage of francophone (2.8 %), compared to anglophone (0.3 %), migrants were infected with syphilis. Females were found to have HIV infection rates three times higher and past year sexually transmitted infection signs and symptoms more than two times higher than their male counterparts. Female migrants also had statistically significantly higher percentages of ever testing for HIV and HIV testing and receiving results in the past year compared to males. We found distinct and important differences between migrants depending on whether they come from francophone versus anglophone countries and whether they were male or female. Future research should continue to explore these differences, while policies and programs should note these differences to best allocate resources in providing social and health services to these populations.

Estimating the Size of Hidden Populations Using Respondent-driven Sampling Data: Case Examples from Morocco.

BACKGROUND: Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics, such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations; however, reliable measures of population size often do not exist. METHODS: Successive sampling-population size estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier, and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. RESULTS: Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Saharan Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. CONCLUSIONS: SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population.

The distribution of new HIV infections by mode of exposure in Morocco.

OBJECTIVES: Building on a wealth of new empirical data, the objective of this study was to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections in Morocco by mode of exposure using the modes of transmission (MoT) mathematical model. METHODS: The MoT model was implemented within a collaboration with the Morocco Ministry of Health and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. The model was parameterised through a comprehensive review and synthesis of HIV and risk behaviour data in Morocco, mainly through the Middle East and North Africa HIV/AIDS Synthesis Project. Uncertainty analyses were used to assess the reliability of and uncertainty around our calculated estimates. RESULTS: Female sex workers (FSWs), clients of FSWs, men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs) contributed 14%, 24%, 14% and 7% of new HIV infections, respectively. Two-thirds (67%) of new HIV infections occurred among FSWs, clients of FSWs, MSM and IDUs, or among the stable sexual partners of these populations. Casual heterosexual sex contributed 7% of HIV infections. More than half (52%) of HIV incidence is among females, but 71% of these infections are due to an infected spouse. The vast majority of HIV infections among men (89%) are due to high-risk behaviour. A very small HIV incidence is predicted to arise from medical injections or blood transfusions (0.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic in Morocco is driven by HIV incidence in high-risk population groups, with commercial heterosexual sex being the largest contributor to incidence. There is a need to focus HIV response more on these populations, mainly through proactive and sustainable HIV surveillance, and the expansion and increased geographical coverage of services such as condom promotion among FSWs, voluntary counselling and testing, harm reduction and treatment.

Assessment of Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Trichomonas vaginalis prevalence using a molecular Point of Care: Findings from a respondent driven sampling study among MSM.

Objectives: Due to the limited data available within the Moroccan context, the aim of the study was therefore to estimate the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) infection and co-infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) as well as to update the behavioral indicators for this population. Methods: During the period of November 2020 to January 2021, 275 and 303 MSM in Agadir and Fes respectively, were recruited by using respondent-driven sampling protocol (RDS). Eligibility criteria for participants included men identified as having anal sex with another man in the last 6 months, aged 18 years or older and residing in either Agadir or Fes, regardless of their nationality, for the past 6 months.Anal swabs were collected from 445 respondents for molecular investigation of CT, NG, and TV. GeneXpert (Cepheid, USA) was used to test all samples. A survey on the socio-demographic, and risk behavior was then administered to participants. Results: Most MSM subjects were identified as being young, and homosexual. CT prevalence was 11.3% (95%CI, 7.2 to 15.4) and 12.5% (95%CI, 7.5 to 17.5) in Agadir and Fes respectively; NG was 13.3% (95%CI, 8.5 to 18.1) in Agadir and 5.5% (95%CI, 1.9 to 9.2) in Fes. Meanwhile, TV prevalence was 0.4% (95%CI, 0 to 1.1) in Agadir and 0.2% (95%CI, -0.2 to 0.6) in Fes. A CT/NG co-infection was found in 4.5% (95%CI, 3.5 to 5.9) of cases in Agadir and 2.7% (95%CI, 1.9 to 3.9), in Fes. Conclusion: It follows that a regular risk assessment and Sexually Transmitted Infectious (STIs) screening should be administered in these two cities as part of a global strategy to enhance the sexual health of the key populations in question.

Mapping of new HIV infections in Morocco and impact of select interventions.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess HIV modes of exposure in Morocco at the national level and also for Souss-Massa-Drâa, the region most affected by HIV. Another aim was to assess the impact of different scenarios of select intervention packages. METHODS: The Modes of Transmission Model was adapted and used, and was parameterized using quality bio-behavioral surveillance data among key populations, routine data sources, and literature reviews. RESULTS: Nationally in 2013, the largest number of new infections occurred among clients of female sex workers (FSWs) (25%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 14-37%), followed by men who have sex with men (MSM) (22%; 95% CI 12-35%), HIV serodiscordant couples (22%; 95% CI 12-34%), FSWs (11%; 95% CI 6-18%), and people who inject drugs (5%; 95% CI 2-9%). A similar pattern of results was observed in Souss-Massa-Drâa, but the HIV incidence rate was four-fold that at the national level. Different scenarios of feasible intervention packages reduced HIV incidence by 8-44%. CONCLUSIONS: Commercial heterosexual sex networks continue as the leading driver of the epidemic, with half of HIV incidence. A quarter of new infections occurred among MSM, a third of which in Souss-Massa-Drâa. Feasible expanded coverage of interventions could lead to large reductions in incidence.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. METHODS: Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. RESULTS: In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. CONCLUSIONS: Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations.