Secular trends in the prevalence of female genital mutilation/cutting among girls: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Current evidence on the decline in the prevalence of female genital mutilation or cutting (FGM/C) has been lacking worldwide. This study analyses the prevalence estimates and secular trends in FGM/C over sustained periods (ie, 1990-2017). Its aim is to provide analytical evidence on the changing prevalence of FGM/C over time among girls aged 0-14 years and examine geographical variations in low-income and middle-income countries. METHODS: Analysis on the shift in prevalence of FGM/C was undertaken using the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) data sets from Africa and Middle East. A random-effects model was used to derive overall prevalence estimates. Using Poisson regression models, we conducted time trends analyses on the FGM/C prevalence estimates between 1990 and 2017. FINDINGS: We included 90 DHS and MICS data sets for 208 195 children (0-14 years) from 29 countries spread across Africa and two countries in Western Asia. The prevalence of FGM/C among children varied greatly between countries and regions and also within countries over the survey periods. The percentage decline in the prevalence of FGM/C among children aged 0-14 years old was highest in East Africa, followed by North and West Africa. The prevalence decreased from 71.4% in 1995 to 8.0% in 2016 in East Africa. In North Africa, the prevalence decreased from 57.7% in 1990 to 14.1% in 2015. In West Africa, the prevalence decreased from 73.6% in 1996 to 25.4% in 2017. The results of the trend analysis showed a significant shift downwards in the prevalence of FGM/C among children aged 0-14 years in such regions and subregions of East Africa, North Africa and West Africa. East Africa has experienced a much faster decrease in the prevalence of the practice (trend=-7.3%, 95% CI -7.5% to -7.1%) per year from 1995 to 2014. By contrast, the decline in prevalence has been much slower in North Africa (trend=-4.4%, 95% CI -4.5% to -4.3%) and West Africa (trend=-3.0%, 95% CI -3.1% to -2.9%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of FGM/C among children aged 0-14 years varied greatly between countries and regions and also within countries over the survey periods. There is evidence of huge and significant decline in the prevalence of FGM/C among children across countries and regions. There is a need to sustain comprehensive intervention efforts and further targeted efforts in countries and regions still showing high prevalence of FGM/C among children, where the practice is still pervasive.

Stroke survivors in Nigeria: A door-to-door prevalence survey from the Niger Delta region.

The burden of stroke has been projected to increase in low-and middle-income countries due to the ongoing epidemiological transition. However, community-based stroke prevalence studies are sparse in sub-Saharan Africa particularly in Nigeria. This study aimed to provide a comparative estimate of the prevalence of stroke survivors in the rural Niger Delta region. A three-phased door-to-door survey was conducted using WHO modified instruments. In the first-phase, 2028 adults (≥18years) participants randomly selected from two rural communities were screened by trained health research assistants for probable stroke. In the second phase, suspected cases were screened with stroke-specific tool. Positive cases were made to undergo complete neurological evaluation by two study neurologist in phase-three. Stroke diagnosis was based on clinical evaluation using WHO criteria. Overall, 27 (8 first-ever and 19 recurrent cases) stroke survivors with crude prevalence of 13.31/1000 (95% CI, 8.32-18.31) and a non-significant difference in prevalence between the two study communities were found, (P=0.393I). In addition, age-adjusted prevalence of stroke survivors was 14.6/1000 person, about 7-folds higher than previous estimates outside the Niger Delta region. The prevalence increases significantly with advancing in age, P<0·001. Among others, hypertension (92.59%) was the commonest risk factor and comorbidity found. Improved stroke surveillance and care, as well as better management of the underlying risk factors, primarily undetected or uncontrolled high blood pressure, remains a public health priority.

The Burden of Hypertension in an Oil- and Gas-Polluted Environment: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of positive association between traffic-related air pollution and elevated blood pressure has been published widely. However, the risk of hypertension and prolonged exposure to crude oil pollution and gas flares remains unexplored. METHODS: We recruited 2,028 residents (aged 18-80) in a cross-sectional survey of both oil/gas polluted and nonpolluted communities in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. Prevalence and risk of hypertension, anthropometric indices, lifestyle and sociodemographic factors, and cardiovascular comorbidities were examined and compared between the 2 groups. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure ≥140/90mm Hg or on antihypertensive medication. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine factors associated with hypertension. Model fits statistics were used to assess the parsimonious model and predictive power. RESULTS: More than one-third of participants were hypertensive (37.4%). Half of the participants were from oil-polluted areas (51%). Only 15% of participants reported family history of hypertension. In the adjusted model, participants living in oil-polluted areas were almost 5 times as likely to have developed hypertension (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.85, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.84-12.82) compared to participants in unpolluted areas. Age modifies the association between pollution status and risk of hypertension. For every 10 years increase in the age of the participants, the odds of developing hypertension increased by 108% (aOR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.77-2.43). CONCLUSION: The results suggested that exposure to oil/gas pollution may be associated with an increased risk of hypertension. Our findings need to be further investigated in longitudinal studies.

Stroke survivors in low- and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis of prevalence and secular trends.

PURPOSE: To provide an up-to-date estimate on the changing prevalence of stroke survivors, and examines the geographic and socioeconomic variations in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Science databases and systematically reviewed articles reporting stroke prevalence and risk factors from inception to July 2015. Pooled prevalence estimates and secular trends based on random-effects models were conducted across LMICs, World Bank regions and income groups. RESULTS: Overall, 101 eligible community-based studies were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled crude prevalence of stroke survivors was highest in Latin America and Caribbean (21.2 per 1000, 95% CI 13.7 to 30.29) but lowest in sub-Saharan Africa (3.5 per 1000, 95% CI 1.9 to 5.7). Steepest increase in stroke prevalence occurred in low-income countries, increasing by 14.3% annually while the lowest increase occurred in lower-middle income countries (6% annually), and for every 10years increase in participants' mean age, the prevalence of stroke survivors increases by 62% (95% CI 6% to 147%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence estimates of stroke survivors are significantly different across LMICs in both magnitude and secular trend. Improved stroke surveillance and care, as well as better management of the underlying risk factors, primarily undetected or uncontrolled high blood pressure (HBP) are needed.