Quality of ethnicity data within Scottish health records and implications of misclassification for ethnic inequalities in severe COVID-19: a national linked data study.

BACKGROUND: We compared the quality of ethnicity coding within the Public Health Scotland Ethnicity Look-up (PHS-EL) dataset, and other National Health Service datasets, with the 2011 Scottish Census. METHODS: Measures of quality included the level of missingness and misclassification. We examined the impact of misclassification using Cox proportional hazards to compare the risk of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (hospitalization & death) by ethnic group. RESULTS: Misclassification within PHS-EL was higher for all minority ethnic groups [12.5 to 69.1%] compared with the White Scottish majority [5.1%] and highest in the White Gypsy/Traveller group [69.1%]. Missingness in PHS-EL was highest among the White Other British group [39%] and lowest among the Pakistani group [17%]. PHS-EL data often underestimated severe COVID-19 risk compared with Census data. e.g. in the White Gypsy/Traveller group the Hazard Ratio (HR) was 1.68 [95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 1.03, 2.74] compared with the White Scottish majority using Census ethnicity data and 0.73 [95% CI: 0.10, 5.15] using PHS-EL data; and HR was 2.03 [95% CI: 1.20, 3.44] in the Census for the Bangladeshi group versus 1.45 [95% CI: 0.75, 2.78] in PHS-EL. CONCLUSIONS: Poor quality ethnicity coding in health records can bias estimates, thereby threatening monitoring and understanding ethnic inequalities in health.

Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Current UK vaccination policy is to offer future COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at high risk of serious illness from COVID-19, but it is still uncertain which groups of the population could benefit most. In response to an urgent request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death) in individuals who had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule and had received the first booster vaccine. METHODS: We constructed prospective cohorts across all four UK nations through linkages of primary care, RT-PCR testing, vaccination, hospitalisation, and mortality data on 30 million people. We included individuals who received primary vaccine doses of BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer-BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in our initial analyses. We then restricted analyses to those given a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (elasomeran; Moderna) booster and had a severe COVID-19 outcome between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022 (when the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant was dominant). We fitted time-dependent Poisson regression models and calculated adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between risk factors and COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death. We adjusted for a range of potential covariates, including age, sex, comorbidities, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then did pooled analyses across UK nations using fixed-effect meta-analyses. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022, 16 208 600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13 836 390 individuals received a booster dose. Between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022, 59 510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26 100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years). Older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; aRR 3·60 [95% CI 3·45-3·75]), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9·51 [9·07-9·97]), being male (male vs female; 1·23 [1·20-1·26]), and those with certain underlying health conditions-in particular, individuals receiving immunosuppressants (yes vs no; 5·80 [5·53-6·09])-and those with chronic kidney disease (stage 5 vs no; 3·71 [2·90-4·74]) remained at high risk despite the initial booster. Individuals with a history of COVID-19 infection were at reduced risk (infected ≥9 months before booster dose vs no previous infection; aRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·29-0·58]). INTERPRETATION: Older people, those with multimorbidity, and those with specific underlying health conditions remain at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the initial vaccine booster and should, therefore, be prioritised for additional boosters, including novel optimised versions, and the increasing array of COVID-19 therapeutics. FUNDING: National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

Maternal multimorbidity and preterm birth in Scotland: an observational record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is common in women across the life course. Preterm birth is the single biggest cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity. We aim to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in pregnant women and to examine the association between maternal multimorbidity and PTB. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using electronic health records from the Scottish Morbidity Records. All pregnancies among women aged 15 to 49 with a conception date between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more pre-existing long-term physical or mental health conditions, and complex multimorbidity as the presence of four or more. It was calculated at the time of conception using a predefined list of 79 conditions published by the MuM-PreDiCT consortium. PTB was defined as babies born alive between 24 and less than 37 completed weeks of gestation. We used Generalised Estimating Equations adjusted for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, BMI, and smoking history to estimate the effect of maternal pre-existing multimorbidity. Absolut rates are reported in the results and tables, whilst Odds Ratios (ORs) are adjusted (aOR). RESULTS: Thirty thousand five hundred fifty-seven singleton births from 27,711 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity and complex multimorbidity was 16.8% (95% CI: 16.4-17.2) and 3.6% (95% CI: 3.3-3.8), respectively. The prevalence of multimorbidity in the youngest age group was 10.2%(95% CI: 8.8-11.6), while in those 40 to 44, it was 21.4% (95% CI: 18.4-24.4), and in the 45 to 49 age group, it was 20% (95% CI: 8.9-31.1). In women without multimorbidity, the prevalence of PTB was 6.7%; it was 11.6% in women with multimorbidity and 15.6% in women with complex multimorbidity. After adjusting for maternal age, socioeconomic status, number of previous pregnancies, Body Mass Index (BMI), and smoking, multimorbidity was associated with higher odds of PTB (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.48-1.82). CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity at the time of conception was present in one in six women and was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth. Multimorbidity presents a significant health burden to women and their offspring. Routine and comprehensive evaluation of women with multimorbidity before and during pregnancy is urgently needed.

Polypharmacy during pregnancy and associated risk factors: a retrospective analysis of 577 medication exposures among 1.5 million pregnancies in the UK, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: The number of medications prescribed during pregnancy has increased over the past few decades. Few studies have described the prevalence of multiple medication use among pregnant women. This study aims to describe the overall prevalence over the last two decades among all pregnant women and those with multimorbidity and to identify risk factors for polypharmacy in pregnancy. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2000 and 2019 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) pregnancy register. Prescription records for 577 medication categories were obtained. Prevalence estimates for polypharmacy (ranging from 2+ to 11+ medications) were presented along with the medications commonly prescribed individually and in pairs during the first trimester and the entire pregnancy period. Logistic regression models were performed to identify risk factors for polypharmacy. RESULTS: During the first trimester (812,354 pregnancies), the prevalence of polypharmacy ranged from 24.6% (2+ medications) to 0.1% (11+ medications). During the entire pregnancy period (774,247 pregnancies), the prevalence ranged from 58.7 to 1.4%. Broad-spectrum penicillin (6.6%), compound analgesics (4.5%) and treatment of candidiasis (4.3%) were commonly prescribed. Pairs of medication prescribed to manage different long-term conditions commonly included selective beta 2 agonists or selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Risk factors for being prescribed 2+ medications during the first trimester of pregnancy include being overweight or obese [aOR: 1.16 (1.14-1.18) and 1.55 (1.53-1.57)], belonging to an ethnic minority group [aOR: 2.40 (2.33-2.47), 1.71 (1.65-1.76), 1.41 (1.35-1.47) and 1.39 (1.30-1.49) among women from South Asian, Black, other and mixed ethnicities compared to white women] and smoking or previously smoking [aOR: 1.19 (1.18-1.20) and 1.05 (1.03-1.06)]. Higher and lower age, higher gravidity, increasing number of comorbidities and increasing level of deprivation were also associated with increased odds of polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of polypharmacy during pregnancy has increased over the past two decades and is particularly high in younger and older women; women with high BMI, smokers and ex-smokers; and women with multimorbidity, higher gravidity and higher levels of deprivation. Well-conducted pharmaco-epidemiological research is needed to understand the effects of multiple medication use on the developing foetus.

The development of a core outcome set for studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity.

BACKGROUND: Heterogeneity in reported outcomes can limit the synthesis of research evidence. A core outcome set informs what outcomes are important and should be measured as a minimum in all future studies. We report the development of a core outcome set applicable to observational and interventional studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity. METHODS: We developed the core outcome set in four stages: (i) a systematic literature search, (ii) three focus groups with UK stakeholders, (iii) two rounds of Delphi surveys with international stakeholders and (iv) two international virtual consensus meetings. Stakeholders included women with multimorbidity and experience of pregnancy in the last 5 years, or are planning a pregnancy, their partners, health or social care professionals and researchers. Study adverts were shared through stakeholder charities and organisations. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies were included in the systematic literature search (2017 to 2021) reporting 185 outcomes. Thematic analysis of the focus groups added a further 28 outcomes. Two hundred and nine stakeholders completed the first Delphi survey. One hundred and sixteen stakeholders completed the second Delphi survey where 45 outcomes reached Consensus In (≥70% of all participants rating an outcome as Critically Important). Thirteen stakeholders reviewed 15 Borderline outcomes in the first consensus meeting and included seven additional outcomes. Seventeen stakeholders reviewed these 52 outcomes in a second consensus meeting, the threshold was ≥80% of all participants voting for inclusion. The final core outcome set included 11 outcomes. The five maternal outcomes were as follows: maternal death, severe maternal morbidity, change in existing long-term conditions (physical and mental), quality and experience of care and development of new mental health conditions. The six child outcomes were as follows: survival of baby, gestational age at birth, neurodevelopmental conditions/impairment, quality of life, birth weight and separation of baby from mother for health care needs. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity in pregnancy is a new and complex clinical research area. Following a rigorous process, this complexity was meaningfully reduced to a core outcome set that balances the views of a diverse stakeholder group.

Intranasal steroid use and COVID-19 mortality among patients with asthma and COPD: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Systemic corticosteroids have been widely used for treating patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Inhaled corticosteroids may have a protective effect for treating acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); however, little is known about the potential effect of intranasal corticosteroids (INCS) on COVID-19 outcomes and severity. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of prior long-term INCS exposure on COVID-19 mortality among patients with chronic respiratory disease and in the general population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between INCS exposure and all-cause and COVID-19 mortality, adjusted by age, sex, deprivation, exacerbations in the last year, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Exposure to INCS did not have a significant association with COVID-19 mortality among the general population or cohorts with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma, with HRs of 0.8 (95% CI, 0.6-1.0, P = .06), 0.6 (95% CI, 0.3-1.1, P = .1), and 0.9 (95% CI, 0.2-3.9, P = .9), respectively. Exposure to INCS was, however, significantly associated with reduction in all-cause mortality in all groups, which was 40% lower (HR, 0.6 [95% CI, 0.5-0.6, P < .001]) among the general population, 30% lower (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.8, P < .001) among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 50% lower (HR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7, P = .003) among patients with asthma. CONCLUSION: The role of INCS in COVID-19 is still unclear, but exposure to INCS does not adversely affect COVID-19 mortality. Further studies are needed to explore the association between their use and inflammatory activation, viral load, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 gene expression, and outcomes, exploring different types and doses of INCS.

Coverage-level and predictors of maternity continuum of care in Nigeria: implications for maternal, newborn and child health programming.

BACKGROUND: Completing maternity continuum of care from pregnancy to postpartum is a core strategy to reduce the burden of maternal and neonatal mortality dominant in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly Nigeria. Thus, we evaluated the level of completion, dropout and predictors of women uptake of optimal antenatal care (ANC) in pregnancy, continuation to use of skilled birth attendants (SBA) at childbirth and postnatal care (PNC) utilization at postpartum in Nigeria. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative 21,447 pregnancies that resulted to births within five years preceding the 2018 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey. Maternity continuum of care model pathway based on WHO recommendation was the outcome measure while explanatory variables were classified as; socio-demographic, maternal and birth characteristics, pregnancy care quality, economic and autonomous factors. Descriptive statistics describes the factors, backward stepwise regression initially assessed association (p < 0.10), multivariable binary logistic regression and complementary-log-log model quantifies association at a 95% confidence interval (α = 0.05). RESULTS: Coverage decrease from 75.1% (turn-up at ANC) to 56.7% (optimal ANC) and to 37.4% (optimal ANC and SBA) while only 6.5% completed the essential continuum of care. Dropout in the model pathway however increase from 17.5% at ANC to 20.2% at SBA and 30.9% at PNC. Continuation and completion of maternity care are positively drive by women; with at least primary education (AOR = 1.27, 95%CI = 1.01-1.62), average wealth index (AOR = 1.83, 95%CI = 1.48 -2.25), southern geopolitical zone (AOR = 1.61, 95%CI = 1.29-2.01), making health decision alone (AOR = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.16-1.66), having nurse as ANC provider (AOR = 3.53, 95%CI = 2.01-6.17) and taking at least two dose of tetanus toxoid vaccine (AOR = 1.25, 95%CI = 1.06-1.62) while women in rural residence (AOR = 0.78, 95%CI = 0.68-0.90) and initiation of ANC as late as third trimester (AOR = 0.44, 95%CI = 0.34-0.58) negatively influenced continuation and completion. CONCLUSIONS: 6.5% coverage in maternity continuum of care completion is very low and far below the WHO recommended level in Nigeria. Women dropout more at postnatal care than at skilled delivery and antenatal. Education, wealth, women health decision power and tetanus toxoid vaccination drives continuation and completion of maternity care. Strategies optimizing these factors in maternity packages will be supreme to strengthen maternal, newborn and child health.

Decomposing the rural-urban disparities in overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obese women face various reproductive and other health challenges, and in some cases, even mortality. Despite evidence of rural-urban disparities in overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age, there is limited evidence regarding the predictors of these disparities. This study aims to investigate the factors associated with overweight and obesity and examine the contributors to rural-urban disparities in overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age in Nigeria. METHODS: We utilized the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey dataset. The survey employed a two-stage cluster sampling technique based on Nigeria's 2006 census enumeration areas for sample selection. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25. Data analyses were conducted using the Logistic Regression Model and the threefold Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition model (α0.05). RESULTS: The study revealed that older women (OR = 2.44; CI = 2.11-2.83), those with higher wealth (OR = 2.05; CI = 1.81-2.31), contraceptive users (OR = 1.41; CI = 1.27-1.57), and residents of the South-South region (OR = 1.24; CI = 1.07-1.45) were more likely to be overweight/obese. The decomposition analysis indicated that the mean predicted prevalence of overweight and obesity is 35.5% in urban areas, compared to 21.1% in rural areas of Nigeria. Factors such as wealth status, educational level, media exposure, and contraceptive use were identified as significant contributors to these disparities. CONCLUSION: The findings underscore the importance of addressing socioeconomic disparities when designing healthcare interventions to reduce the burden of overweight and obesity, particularly in urban areas. Prioritizing these factors can facilitate efforts to promote healthier lifestyles and enhance overall well-being.

Spatio-temporal analysis of childhood vaccine uptake in Nigeria: a hierarchical Bayesian Zero-inflated Poisson approach.

BACKGROUND: Globally, child mortality and morbidity remain a serious health challenge and infectious diseases are the leading causes. The use of count models together with spatial analysis of the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken is limited in the literature. We used a Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson regression model with spatio-temporal components to assess the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken among children aged 12-23 months and their associated factors. METHODS: Data of 19,564 children from 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 population-based cross-sectional Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey were used. The childhood vaccines include one dose of Bacillus-Calmette-Guérin; three doses of Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus; three doses of Polio and one dose of Measles. Uptake of all nine vaccines was regarded as full vaccination. We examined the multilevel factors associated with the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken using descriptive, bivariable and multivariable Bayesian models. Analysis was conducted in Stata version 16 and R statistical packages, and visualization in ArcGIS. RESULTS: The prevalence of full vaccination was 6.5% in 2003, 14.8% in 2008, 21.8% in 2013 and 23.3% in 2018. Full vaccination coverage ranged from 1.7% in Sokoto to 51.9% in Anambra. Factors associated with the number of doses of childhood vaccines taken include maternal age (adjusted Incidence "risk" Ratio (aIRR) = 1.05; 95% Credible Interval (CrI) = 1.03-1.07) for 25-34 years and (aIRR = 1.07; 95% CrI = 1.05-1.10) for 35-49 years and education: (aIRR = 1.11, 95% CrI = 1.09-1.14) for primary and (aIRR = 1.16; 95% CrI = 1.13-1.19) for secondary/tertiary education. Other significant factors are wealth status, antenatal care attendance, working status, use of skilled birth attendants, religion, mother's desire for the child, community poverty rate, community illiteracy, and community unemployment. CONCLUSION: Although full vaccination has remained low, there have been improvements over the years with wide disparities across the states. Improving the uptake of vaccines by educating women on the benefits of hospital delivery and vaccines through radio jingles and posters should be embraced, and state-specific efforts should be made to address inequality in access to routine vaccination in Nigeria.

A multilevel Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Poisson modelling of factors associated with components of antenatal care offered to pregnant women in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The most recent WHO guideline on antenatal care (ANC) utilization reaffirmed the necessary and compulsory care and services a pregnant woman should receive to maximize the importance and gains of ANC. While most studies focused on the time of initiation and number of ANC contacts, emphasis was rarely placed on the components of ANC offered to women. This study assessed how complete the components of ANC received by pregnant women are as a proxy for the quality of ANC services offered in Nigeria. We also assessed the clustering of the components and state-level differentials and inequalities in the components of ANC received in Nigeria. METHODS: We used nationally representative cross-sectional data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey. We analysed the data of 11,867 women who had at least one ANC contact during the most recent pregnancy within five years preceding the survey. The assessed components were tetanus injection, blood pressure, urine test, blood test, iron supplement, malaria intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp), and told about danger signs. Others are intestinal parasite drugs (IPD)intermittent and HIV/PMTCT counsel. Descriptive statistics, bivariable and multivariable multilevel Bayesian Monte Carlo Poisson models were used. RESULTS: In all, 94% had blood pressure measured, 91% received tetanus injection, had iron supplement-89%, blood test-87%, urine test-86%, IPTp-24%, danger signs-80%, HIV/PMTC-82% and IPD-22%. The overall prevalence of receiving all 9 components was 5% and highest in Ogun (24%) and lowest in Kebbi state (0.1%). The earlier the initiation of ANC, the higher the number of contacts, and the higher the quality of ANC received. Respondents with higher education have a 4% (adjusted incidence risk ratio (aIRR): 1.04, 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.01-1.09) higher risk of receiving more components of ANC relative to those with no education. The risk of receiving more ANC components was 5% (aIRRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.10) higher among pregnant women aged 40 to 49 years than those aged 15 to 19 years. Women who decide their healthcare utilization alone had a 2% higher risk of getting more components than those whose spouses are the only decision taker of healthcare use. Other significant factors were household wealth status, spouse education, ethnicity, place of ANC, and skill of ANC provider. Pregnant women who had their blood pressure measured were very likely to have blood and urine tests, tetanus injections, iron supplements, and HIV talks. CONCLUSIONS: Only one in every 20 pregnant women received all the 9 ANC components with wide disparities and inequalities across the background characteristics and the States of residence in Nigeria. There is a need to ensure that all pregnant women receive adequate components. Stakeholders should increase supplies, train, and create awareness among ANC providers and pregnant women in particular.

Epidemiology of pre-existing multimorbidity in pregnant women in the UK in 2018: a population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Although maternal death is rare in the United Kingdom, 90% of these women had multiple health/social problems. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity (two or more long-term physical or mental health conditions) in pregnant women in the United Kingdom (England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland). STUDY DESIGN: Pregnant women aged 15-49 years with a conception date 1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018 were included in this population-based cross-sectional study, using routine healthcare datasets from primary care: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD, United Kingdom, n = 37,641) and Secure Anonymized Information Linkage databank (SAIL, Wales, n = 27,782), and secondary care: Scottish Morbidity Records with linked community prescribing data (SMR, Tayside and Fife, n = 6099). Pre-existing multimorbidity preconception was defined from 79 long-term health conditions prioritised through a workshop with patient representatives and clinicians. RESULTS: The prevalence of multimorbidity was 44.2% (95% CI 43.7-44.7%), 46.2% (45.6-46.8%) and 19.8% (18.8-20.8%) in CPRD, SAIL and SMR respectively. When limited to health conditions that were active in the year before pregnancy, the prevalence of multimorbidity was still high (24.2% [23.8-24.6%], 23.5% [23.0-24.0%] and 17.0% [16.0 to 17.9%] in the respective datasets). Mental health conditions were highly prevalent and involved 70% of multimorbidity CPRD: multimorbidity with ≥one mental health condition/s 31.3% [30.8-31.8%]). After adjusting for age, ethnicity, gravidity, index of multiple deprivation, body mass index and smoking, logistic regression showed that pregnant women with multimorbidity were more likely to be older (CPRD England, adjusted OR 1.81 [95% CI 1.04-3.17] 45-49 years vs 15-19 years), multigravid (1.68 [1.50-1.89] gravidity ≥ five vs one), have raised body mass index (1.59 [1.44-1.76], body mass index 30+ vs body mass index 18.5-24.9) and smoked preconception (1.61 [1.46-1.77) vs non-smoker). CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity is prevalent in pregnant women in the United Kingdom, they are more likely to be older, multigravid, have raised body mass index and smoked preconception. Secondary care and community prescribing dataset may only capture the severe spectrum of health conditions. Research is needed urgently to quantify the consequences of maternal multimorbidity for both mothers and children.

Sex inequality in under-five deaths and associated factors in low and middle-income countries: a Fairlie decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: There exist sex disparities in the burden of Under-five deaths (U5D) with a higher prevalence among male children. Factors explaining this inequality remain unexplored in Low-and Medium-Income Countries (LMIC). This study quantified the contributions of the individual- and neighborhood-level factors to sex inequalities in U5D in LMIC. METHODS: Demographic and Health Survey datasets (2010-2018) of 856,987 under-five children nested in 66,495 neighborhoods across 59 LMIC were analyzed. The outcome variable was U5D. The main group variable was the sex of the child while individual-level and neighborhood-level factors were the explanatory variables. Fairlie decomposition analysis was used to quantify the contributions of explanatory factors to the male-female inequalities in U5D at p<0.05. RESULTS: Overall weighted prevalence of U5D was 51/1000 children, 55 among males and 48 among females (p<0.001). Higher prevalence of U5D was recorded among male children in all countries except Liberia, Kyrgyz Republic, Bangladesh, Nepal, Armenia, Turkey and Papua New Guinea. Pro-female inequality was however not significant in any country. Of the 59 countries, 25 had statistically significant pro-male inequality. Different factors contributed to the sex inequality in U5D in different countries including birth order, birth weight, birth interval and multiple births. CONCLUSIONS: There were sex inequalities in the U5D in LMIC with prominent pro-male-inequality in many countries. Interventions targeted towards the improvement of the health system that will, in turn, prevent preterm delivery and improve management of prematurity and early childhood infection (which are selective threats to the male child survival) are urgently required to address this inequality.

Factors contributing to household wealth inequality in under-five deaths in low- and middle-income countries: decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: The burden of under-5 deaths is disproportionately high among poor households relative to economically viable ones in developing countries. Despite this, the factors driving this inequality has not been well explored. This study decomposed the contributions of the factors associated with wealth inequalities in under-5 deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We analysed data of 856,987 children from 66,495 neighbourhoods across 59 LMICs spanning recent Demographic and Health Surveys (2010-2018). Under-5 mortality was described as deaths among live births within 0 to 59 months of birth and it was treated as a dichotomous variable (dead or alive). The prevalence of under-five deaths was stratified using household wealth status. A Fairlie decomposition analysis was utilized to investigate the relative contribution of the factors associated with household wealth inequality in under-5 deaths at p<0.05. The WHO health equity assessment toolkit Plus was used to assess the differences (D) ratios (R), population attributable risk (PAR), and population attributable fraction (PAF) in household wealth inequalities across the countries. RESULTS: The proportion of children from poor households was 45%. The prevalence of under-5 deaths in all samples was 51 per 1000 children, with 60 per 1000 and 44 per 1000 among children from poor and non-poor households (p<0.001). The prevalence of under-5 deaths was higher among children from poor households than those from non-poor households in all countries except in Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zambia, Lesotho, Gambia and Sierra Leone, and in the Maldives. Thirty-four of the 59 countries showed significantly higher under-5 deaths in poor households than in non-poor households (pro-non-poor inequality) and no significant pro-poor inequality. Rural-urban contexts, maternal education, neighborhood socioeconomic status, sex of the child, toilet kinds, birth weight and preceding birth intervals, and sources of drinking water are the most significant drivers of pro-poor inequities in under-5 deaths in these countries. CONCLUSIONS: Individual-level and neighbourhood-level factors were associated with a high prevalence of under-5 deaths among poor households in LMICs. Interventions in countries should focus on reducing the gap between the poor and the rich as well as improve the education and livelihood of disadvantaged people.

Higher education students' achievement emotions and their antecedents in e-learning amid COVID-19 pandemic: A multi-country survey.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a wide range of negative consequences for higher education students. We explored the generalizability of the control-value theory of achievement emotions for e-learning, focusing on their antecedents. We involved 17019 higher education students from 13 countries, who completed an online survey during the first wave of the pandemic. A structural equation model revealed that proximal antecedents (e-learning self-efficacy, computer self-efficacy) mediated the relation between environmental antecedents (cognitive and motivational quality of the task) and positive and negative achievement emotions, with some exceptions. The model was invariant across country, area of study, and gender. The rates of achievement emotions varied according to these same factors. Beyond their theoretical relevance, these findings could be the basis for policy recommendations to support stakeholders in coping with the challenges of e-learning and the current and future sequelae of the pandemic.

Sub-national analysis and determinants of numbers of antenatal care contacts in Nigeria: assessing the compliance with the WHO recommended standard guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria has unimpressive maternal and child health indicators. Compliance with the WHO guidelines on the minimum number of antenatal care (ANC) contacts could improve these indicators. We assessed the compliance with WHO recommended standards on ANC contacts in Nigeria and identify the associated factors. METHODS: Nationally representative cross-sectional data during pregnancy of 21,785 most recent births within five years preceding the 2018 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey was used. The number of ANC contacts was categorised into "None", "1-3", "4-7" and "8 or more" contacts based on subsequent WHO guidelines. Descriptive statistics, bivariable and multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used at p = 0.05. RESULTS: About 25 % of the women had no ANC contact, 58 % had at least 4 contacts while only 20 % had 8 or more ANC contacts. The highest rate of 8 or more ANC contacts was in Osun (80.2 %), Lagos (76.8 %), and Imo (72.0 %) while the lowest rates were in Kebbi (0.2 %), Zamfara (1.1 %) and Yobe (1.3 %). Respondents with higher education were twelve times (adjusted relative risk (aRR): 12.46, 95 % CI: 7.33-21.2), having secondary education was thrice (aRR: 2.91, 95 % CI: 2.35-3.60), and having primary education was twice (aRR: 2.17, 95 % CI: 1.77-2.66) more likely to make at least 8 contacts than those with no education. Respondents from households in the richest and middle wealth categories were 129 and 67 % more likely to make 8 or more ANC contacts compared to those from households in the lowest wealth category respectively. The likelihood of making 8 ANC contacts was 89 and 47 % higher among respondents from communities in the least and middle disadvantaged groups, respectively,  compared to the most disadvantaged group. Other significant variables were spouse education, health care decision making, media access, ethnicity, religion, and other community factors. CONCLUSIONS: Compliance with WHO guidelines on the minimum number of ANC contacts in Nigeria is poor. Thus, Nigeria has a long walk to attaining sustainable development goal's targets on child and maternal health. We recommend that the maternal and child health programmers should review existing policies and develop new policies to adopt, implement and tackle the challenges of adherence to the WHO recommended minimum of 8 ANC contacts. Women's education, socioeconomic status and adequate mobilization of families should be prioritized. There is a need for urgent intervention to narrow the identified inequalities and substantial disparities in the characteristics of pregnant women across the regions and states.

Preventable multiple high-risk birth behaviour and infant survival in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Globally, infant mortality has declined considerably but has remained unacceptably high in sub-Saharan Africa, especially Nigeria where infant mortality rate is 67/1000 live births. To facilitate infant mortality reduction in Nigeria, an understanding of the synergistic effect of bio-demographic characteristics of mothers known as High Risk Birth Behaviours (HrBBs) is important. We therefore investigated the influence of HrBBs on infant survival in Nigeria. METHODS: This cross-sectional study design utilized data from the 2018 round of Nigerian Demographic Health Survey. The study participants were a representative sample of women of reproductive age (n = 21,350) who had given birth within the 5 years preceding the survey. HrBBs was measured through integration of information on maternal age at child's birth, parity, and preceding birth interval with respect to the most recent child. The HrBBs was categorized as none, single and multiple. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model (α =0.05). RESULTS: The mean age of the women was 29.7 ± 7.2 and 4.1% had experienced infant death. Infant mortality was highest among women with multiple HrBBs (5.1%). Being a male, having small size at birth, failure to receive tetanus injection, non-use of contraceptives and living in the core-north (North West and North East) predisposed children to higher risk of dying before 12 months of age. The hazard ratio of infant mortality was significantly higher among infants of mothers in multiple HrBBs category (aHR = 1.66; CI: 1.33-2.06) compared to their counterparts with no HrBBs. CONCLUSION: Multiple HrBBs increase the chances of dying among infants in Nigeria. Screening women for HrBBs for special health attention during pregnancy, birth and postnatal period will alleviate infant death in Nigeria.

A comparative analysis of the influence of contraceptive use and fertility desire on the duration of second birth interval in four sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: Fertility decline characterised by inter-birth intervals remains rather slow or stall in many countries of sub-Saharan African (SSA). Non-adherence to optimal inter-birth intervals often occasioned by low prevalence of contraceptive use and high fertility desires often lead to poor maternal and child health outcomes. Additionally, information on the influence of contraception and fertility desire on interval between first and second births (SBI) is rarely available. This study therefore aimed to examine the influence of fertility desire and contraception on SBI among women in four SSA countries. METHODS: We analysed cross-sectional data on women aged 15-49 years who participated in the recent Demographic and Health Surveys in DR Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria and South Africa. Semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards regression was employed for the analysis at 5% significance level. RESULTS: The median time to second birth was 34 months in DR Congo; 35 months, Nigeria; 42 months, Ethiopia; and 71 months, South Africa. About 70% of the women desired additional child(ren) and two-thirds have never used contraceptive in both Nigeria and DR Congo. The hazard of second birth was significantly lower among women who desired additional child(ren) compared to desired for no more child in DR Congo (aHR = 0.93; CI: 0.89-0.97), Ethiopia (aHR = 0.64; CI: 0.61-0.67) and South Africa (aHR = 0.51; CI: 0.47-0.55). Women who had never used contraceptive were 12%, 20% and 24% more likely to lengthen SBI than those who were current users in DR Congo, Nigeria and South Africa respectively. DR Congo and Nigerian women were about two times more likely to shorten SBI compared with their South African counterparts. Other significant determinants of SBI include ethnicity, rural residential, age and marital status at first birth, wealth and employment status. CONCLUSION: Findings showed differentials in the linkage between second birth interval and the desired fertility and contraception by country, demonstrating the importance of context. The contribution of these factors to second birth interval requires country context-specific attention if further decline in fertility and poor health outcomes associated with sub-optimal inter-birth interval is to be attained in SSA.

On the discriminatory and predictive accuracy of the RDT against the microscopy in the diagnosis of malaria among under-five children in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Accurate identification of malaria cases is crucial to the management of cases and the eventual success of malaria eradication agenda. This study is designed to evaluate the discriminatory and predictive accuracy of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in Nigeria. METHODS: The data obtained during the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey was used to quantify the discriminatory accuracy of the RDT against the microscopy through the analysis of its sensitivity, specificity, positive (LR+) and negative (LR-) likelihood ratio. The positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and diagnostic odds ratio were used to assess the predictive accuracy of the RDTs using expert microscopy as a gold standard at p = 0.05. The McNemar paired test and the Kappa statistics were used to assess the level of agreement between the diagnostic tests. RESULTS: There was a significant but not an excellent agreement between the results of the RDT and microscopy tests (p < 0.001). The overall sensitivity of the RDT was 87.6% (85.9-89.2%), specificity was 75.8% (74.4-77.1%), while the diagnostic accuracy stood at 79.0% (77.9-80.0%). The LR+, LR-, PPV and NPV were 3.6 (3.4-3.8) and 0.16 (0.14-0.19), 57.5% (56.1-58.9%) and 94.2% (93.5-94.9%), respectively. The sensitivity of RDT increased as the age of the children increased, from 85.7% among those aged 0-6 months to 86.1% in 7-23 month olds to 88.1% among those aged 24-59 months, but the reverse was the specificity. For children with severe anaemia, the sensitivity of the RDT was nearly 100% compared with a specificity of 39%. While the sensitivity and the PPV reduced with children's level of anaemia, the higher the severity of anaemia, the lower the NPV, specificity, the diagnostic accuracy of the RDT. The odds of RDT being sensitive was about 50% [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 0.52 (95% CI 0.30-0.90)] lower among children aged 7-23 months compared with those aged 24-59 months while the odds of RDT being sensitive was 2 times [aOR = 2.15 (95% CI 1.67-2.77)] higher among those 7-23 months than among those aged 24-59 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was a significant agreement in the outcomes of RDT and microscopy tests, the discriminatory accuracy of RDT was weak. Also, the predictive accuracy, especially the PPV of the RDTS, were very low. These measures of accuracies differed across the age of the children, level of anaemia, recent experience of malaria and other characteristics. Without an accurate, efficient and reliable diagnosis of malaria, the goal of eliminating malaria and reduction of malaria-related deaths to zero by 2020 will only remain elusive.

Wealth and antenatal care utilization in Nigeria: Policy implications.

Antenatal care (ANC) utilization is lower in Nigeria than the African average. We investigated the relationship between wealth and utilization of ANC and also assessed other determinants associated with ANC utilization in Nigeria. Using data of the most recent births within 5 years prior to a 2012 nationally representative survey, we modeled predictors of ANC utilization. Respondents in the wealthiest quintile were over five times (aOR = 5.5 (95% CI: 4.2-7.2) more likely to adequately use ANC. The odds of ANC use were generally lower among the poor and the least educated women living in rural areas who need ANC the most.

Survival analysis and prognostic factors of timing of first childbirth among women in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: First childbirth in a woman's life is one of the most important events in her life. It marks a turnaround when she might have to drop roles of career building and education, for motherhood and parenthood. The timing of the commencement of these roles affects the child bearing behavior of women as they progress in their reproductive ages. Prevalent early first childbirth in Nigeria has been reported as the main cause of high population growth and high  fertility, mortality and morbidity among women, but little has been documented on the progression into first birth as well as factors affecting it in Nigeria. This paper modelled timing of first birth among women in Nigeria and determined socio-demographic and other factors affecting its timing. METHODS: We hypothesized that background characteristics of a woman will influence her progression into having first birth. We developed and fitted a survival analysis model to understand the timing of first birth among women in Nigeria using a national representative 2013 NDHS data. Women with no children were right censored as of the date of the survey. The Kaplan Meier survival function was used to estimate the probabilities of first birth not occurring until certain ages of women while Cox proportional hazard regression was used to model the timing of first births at 5 % significance level. RESULTS: About 75.7 % of the respondents had given birth in the Northern region of Nigerian compared with 63.8 % in the South. Half (50.1 %) of the first childbirth occurred within the 15-19 years age bracket and 38.1 % within 20-29 years. The overall median survival time to first birth was 20 years (North 19, South 22), 27 years among women with higher education and 18 years for those with no formal education. The adjusted hazard of first birth was higher in the Northern region of Nigeria than in the South (aHR = 1.24, 95 % CI: 1.20-1.27), and higher in rural areas than in urban areas (aHR = 1.15, 95 % CI: 1.12-1.19). Also, hazard of earlier first birth tripled among women with no education (aHR = 3.36, 95 % CI: 3.17-3.55) compared to women with higher education. The significant factors affecting age at first birth are education, place and zone of residence, age at first marriage, religion, ethnicity and use of contraceptives. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that progression into early first birth is most affected by the education standing of women as well as age at first marriage. Delay of first childbirths as a strategy for fertility reduction and maternal health improvement can be achieved if women are empowered early in life with quality education. Stakeholders should therefore, give adequate attention to educating the girl child. Adverse socio-cultural norms of betrothing and marrying young girls should be abrogated, while health education and promotion of need to delay child bearing must be intensified especially among rural dwellers and also in Northern Nigeria.