Were small businesses more likely to permanently close in the pandemic?

Previous estimates indicate that COVID-19 led to a large drop in the number of operating businesses operating early in the pandemic, but surprisingly little is known on whether these shutdowns turned into permanent closures and whether small businesses were disproportionately hit. This paper provides the first analysis of permanent business closures using confidential administrative firm-level panel data covering the universe of businesses filing sales taxes from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. We find large increases in closure rates in the first two quarters of 2020, but a strong reversal of this trend in the third quarter of 2020. The increase in closures rates in the first two quarters of the pandemic was substantially larger for small businesses than large businesses, but the rebound in the third quarter was also larger. The disproportionate closing of small businesses led to a sharp concentration of market share among larger businesses as indicated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index with only a partial reversal after the initial increase. The findings highlight the fragility of small businesses during a large adverse shock and the consequences for the competitiveness of markets.

The early impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on business sales.

Abstract: COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the Current Population Survey, for example, indicate that the number of active business owners dropped by 22% from February to April 2020. We provide the first analysis of losses in sales among the universe of businesses in California using administrative data from the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. Losses in taxable sales average 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, which lost 91%, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Placing business types into different categories based on whether they were considered essential or nonessential (and thus subject to early lockdowns) and whether they have a moderate or high level of person-to-person contact, we find interesting correlations between sales losses and COVID-19 cases per capita across counties in California. The results suggest that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions as safety measures for public health and voluntary behavioral responses as reactions to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role. Plain English Summary: Business sales dropped by 17% on average due to the pandemic during the second quarter of 2020 in California. Accommodations lost 91% of sales, whereas online sales grew by 180%. Sales fell more steeply in counties with more COVID-19 cases. We examine how much businesses lost in sales using administrative sales tax data. The average losses of 17% in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the second quarter of 2019 occurred even though year-over-year sales typically grow by 3-4%. We find that sales losses were largest in businesses affected by mandatory lockdowns such as accommodations, drinking places, and arts, entertainment, and recreation. Distinguishing between essential and nonessential businesses, which were subject to early lockdowns, and by the level of person-to-person contact, we find that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions for public health safety and voluntary responses to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role. The results suggest that small businesses may need more support from governments and consumers to mitigate the strong shift to online vendors, and that the pandemic must be brought under control as a prerequisite to a full recovery. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11187-021-00479-4.

Did the Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program get disbursed to minority communities in the early stages of COVID-19?

Social distancing restrictions and health- and economic-driven demand shifts from COVID-19 shut down many small businesses with especially negative impacts on minority owners. Is there evidence that the unprecedented federal government response to help small businesses-the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the related COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL)-which had a stated goal of helping disadvantaged groups, was disbursed evenly to minority communities? In this descriptive research note, we provide the first detailed analysis of how the 2020 PPP and EIDL funds were disbursed across minority communities in the country. From our analysis of data on the universe of loans from these programs and administrative data on employer firms, we generally find a slightly positive relationship between PPP loan receipt per business and the minority share of the population or businesses, although funds flowed to minority communities later than to communities with lower minority shares. PPP loan amounts per employee, however, are negatively related to the minority share of the population. The EIDL program, in contrast, both in numbers per business and amounts per employee, was distributed positively to minority communities.