Propensity score matching for estimating a marginal hazard ratio.

Propensity score matching is commonly used to draw causal inference from observational survival data. However, its asymptotic properties have yet to be established, and variance estimation is still open to debate. We derive the statistical properties of the propensity score matching estimator of the marginal causal hazard ratio based on matching with replacement and a fixed number of matches. We also propose a double-resampling technique for variance estimation that takes into account the uncertainty due to propensity score estimation prior to matching.

Practical recommendations on double score matching for estimating causal effects.

Unlike in randomized clinical trials (RCTs), confounding control is critical for estimating the causal effects from observational studies due to the lack of treatment randomization. Under the unconfoundedness assumption, matching methods are popular because they can be used to emulate an RCT that is hidden in the observational study. To ensure the key assumption hold, the effort is often made to collect a large number of possible confounders, rendering dimension reduction imperative in matching. Three matching schemes based on the propensity score (PSM), prognostic score (PGM), and double score (DSM, ie, the collection of the first two scores) have been proposed in the literature. However, a comprehensive comparison is lacking among the three matching schemes and has not made inroads into the best practices including variable selection, choice of caliper, and replacement. In this article, we explore the statistical and numerical properties of PSM, PGM, and DSM via extensive simulations. Our study supports that DSM performs favorably with, if not better than, the two single score matching in terms of bias and variance. In particular, DSM is doubly robust in the sense that the matching estimator is consistent requiring either the propensity score model or the prognostic score model is correctly specified. Variable selection on the propensity score model and matching with replacement is suggested for DSM, and we illustrate the recommendations with comprehensive simulation studies. An R package is available at https://github.com/Yunshu7/dsmatch.

Diagnosis, consultation, treatment, and impact of migraine in the US: Results of the OVERCOME (US) study.

OBJECTIVE: The ObserVational survey of the Epidemiology, tReatment and Care of MigrainE (OVERCOME; United States) study is a multicohort, longitudinal web survey that assesses symptomatology, consulting, diagnosis, treatment, and impact of migraine in the United States. BACKGROUND: Regularly updating population-based views of migraine in the United States provides a method for assessing the quality of ongoing migraine care and identifying unmet needs. METHODS: The OVERCOME (US) 2018 migraine cohort involved: (I) creating a demographically representative sample of US adults using quota sampling (n = 97,478), (II) identifying people with active migraine in the past year via a validated migraine diagnostic questionnaire and/or self-reported medical diagnosis of migraine (n = 24,272), and (III) assessing consultation, diagnosis, and treatment of migraine (n = 21,143). The current manuscript evaluated whether those with low frequency episodic migraine (LFEM; 0-3 monthly headache days) differed from other categories on outcomes of interest. RESULTS: Among the migraine cohort (n = 21,143), 19,888 (94.1%) met our International Classification of Headache Disorders, 3rd edition-based case definition of migraine and 12,905 (61.0%) self-reported a medical diagnosis of migraine. Respondents' mean (SD) age was 42.2 (15.0) years; 15,697 (74.2%) were women. Having at least moderate disability was common (n = 8965; 42.4%) and around half (n = 10,783; 51.0%) had consulted a medical professional for migraine care in the past year. Only 4792 (22.7%) of respondents were currently using a triptan. Overall, 8539 (40.4%) were eligible for migraine preventive medication and 3555 (16.8%) were currently using migraine preventive medication. Those with LFEM differed from moderate and high frequency episodic migraine and chronic migraine on nearly all measures of consulting, diagnosis, and treatment. CONCLUSION: The OVERCOME (US) 2018 cohort revealed slow but steady progress in diagnosis and preventive treatment of migraine. However, despite significant impact among the population, many with migraine have unmet needs related to consulting for migraine, migraine diagnosis, and getting potentially beneficial migraine treatment. Moreover, it demonstrated the heterogeneity and varying unmet needs within episodic migraine.

Addressing unmeasured confounding in comparative observational research.

PURPOSE: Observational pharmacoepidemiological studies can provide valuable information on the effectiveness or safety of interventions in the real world, but one major challenge is the existence of unmeasured confounder(s). While many analytical methods have been developed for dealing with this challenge, they appear under-utilized, perhaps due to the complexity and varied requirements for implementation. Thus, there is an unmet need to improve understanding the appropriate course of action to address unmeasured confounding under a variety of research scenarios. METHODS: We implemented a stepwise search strategy to find articles discussing the assessment of unmeasured confounding in electronic literature databases. Identified publications were reviewed and characterized by the applicable research settings and information requirements required for implementing each method. We further used this information to develop a best practice recommendation to help guide the selection of appropriate analytical methods for assessing the potential impact of unmeasured confounding. RESULTS: Over 100 papers were reviewed, and 15 methods were identified. We used a flowchart to illustrate the best practice recommendation which was driven by 2 critical components: (1) availability of information on the unmeasured confounders; and (2) goals of the unmeasured confounding assessment. Key factors for implementation of each method were summarized in a checklist to provide further assistance to researchers for implementing these methods. CONCLUSION: When assessing comparative effectiveness or safety in observational research, the impact of unmeasured confounding should not be ignored. Instead, we suggest quantitatively evaluating the impact of unmeasured confounding and provided a best practice recommendation for selecting appropriate analytical methods.

Evaluating different strategies for estimating treatment effects in observational studies.

Since the introduction of the propensity score (PS), methods for estimating treatment effects with observational data have received growing attention in the literature. Recent research has added substantially to the number of available statistical approaches for controlling confounding in such analyses. However, researchers need guidance to decide on the optimal analytic strategy for any given scenario. To address this gap, we conducted simulations evaluating both well-established methods (regression, PS weighting, stratification, and matching) and more recently proposed approaches (tree-based methods, local control, entropy balancing, genetic matching, prognostic scoring). The simulation scenarios included tree-based and smooth regression models as true data-generation mechanisms. We evaluated an extensive number of analysis strategies combining different treatment choices and outcome models. Key findings include 1) the lack of a single best strategy across all potential scenarios; 2) the importance of appropriately addressing interactions in the treatment choice model and/or outcome model; and 3) a tree-structured treatment choice model and a polynomial outcome model with second-order interactions performed well. One limitation to this initial assessment is the lack of heterogeneous simulation scenarios allowing treatment effects to vary by patient.

Propensity score matching and subclassification in observational studies with multi-level treatments.

In this article, we develop new methods for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies, in settings with more than two treatment levels, assuming unconfoundedness given pretreatment variables. We emphasize propensity score subclassification and matching methods which have been among the most popular methods in the binary treatment literature. Whereas the literature has suggested that these particular propensity-based methods do not naturally extend to the multi-level treatment case, we show, using the concept of weak unconfoundedness and the notion of the generalized propensity score, that adjusting for a scalar function of the pretreatment variables removes all biases associated with observed pretreatment variables. We apply the proposed methods to an analysis of the effect of treatments for fibromyalgia. We also carry out a simulation study to assess the finite sample performance of the methods relative to previously proposed methods.

Estimating optimal treatment regimes via subgroup identification in randomized control trials and observational studies.

With new treatments and novel technology available, personalized medicine has become an important piece in the new era of medical product development. Traditional statistics methods for personalized medicine and subgroup identification primarily focus on single treatment or two arm randomized control trials. Motivated by the recent development of outcome weighted learning framework, we propose an alternative algorithm to search treatment assignments which has a connection with subgroup identification problems. Our method focuses on applications from clinical trials to generate easy to interpret results. This framework is able to handle two or more than two treatments from both randomized control trials and observational studies. We implement our algorithm in C++ and connect it with R. Its performance is evaluated by simulations, and we apply our method to a dataset from a diabetes study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

"A Bayesian sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of unmeasured confounding with external data: a real world comparative effectiveness study in osteoporosis".

PURPOSE: Observational studies are frequently used to assess the effectiveness of medical interventions in routine clinical practice. However, the use of observational data for comparative effectiveness is challenged by selection bias and the potential of unmeasured confounding. This is especially problematic for analyses using a health care administrative database, in which key clinical measures are often not available. This paper provides an approach to conducting a sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. METHODS: In a real world osteoporosis comparative effectiveness study, the bone mineral density (BMD) score, an important predictor of fracture risk and a factor in the selection of osteoporosis treatments, is unavailable in the data base and lack of baseline BMD could potentially lead to significant selection bias. We implemented Bayesian twin-regression models, which simultaneously model both the observed outcome and the unobserved unmeasured confounder, using information from external sources. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of our conclusions to changes in such external data. RESULTS: The use of Bayesian modeling in this study suggests that the lack of baseline BMD did have a strong impact on the analysis, reversing the direction of the estimated effect (odds ratio of fracture incidence at 24 months: 0.40 vs. 1.36, with/without adjusting for unmeasured baseline BMD). CONCLUSIONS: The Bayesian twin-regression models provide a flexible sensitivity analysis tool to quantitatively assess the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Baseline characteristics and hospitalizations in patients with schizophrenia receiving olanzapine long-acting injection: an interim analysis from a non-interventional, prospective observational safety study.

BACKGROUND: Depot antipsychotics are a treatment option for medication nonadherence in patients with schizophrenia. Nonadherence can lead to increased relapse and hospitalization rates. This article reports hospitalization data before and after initiation of olanzapine long-acting injection (LAI), a depot antipsychotic. METHODS: Data were assessed from an ongoing, multinational, prospective, observational post-authorisation safety study being conducted to evaluate post-injection delirium/sedation syndrome (PDSS), an adverse reaction that can occur following injection of olanzapine LAI. Eligible patients were aged ≥18 years, diagnosed with schizophrenia, were prescribed olanzapine LAI, and lived outside the United States. Psychiatric hospitalization and medication data were collected retrospectively for the 6-month period before study entry and prospectively throughout the study. Paired t-tests and McNemar's tests were used to assess changes in hospitalization incidence and duration. Stepwise Cox proportional hazards models assessed factors associated with hospitalizations. Analyses were based on data from the first 3 years of the continuously enrolling study (N = 668). RESULTS: The average duration of olanzapine LAI exposure for all patients was 0.768 years. Of the 529 patients who received at least 1 injection of olanzapine LAI and were not hospitalized at study entry, 8.1% had at least 1 subsequent psychiatric hospitalization with a mean duration of 2.0 days. Of the 288 patients who had a >6-month follow-up, 8.3% had at least 1 post-baseline psychiatric hospitalization with a mean duration of 2.3 days. The incidence of hospitalizations in the 6-month period after treatment was significantly lower than that in the 6-month period prior to treatment (8.3 vs 32.6%, respectively; P < 0.001). Furthermore, mean hospitalization duration decreased from 11.5 days in the 6-month period before treatment to 2.3 days in the 6-month period after treatment (P < 0.001). Psychiatric hospitalization in the prior 12 months (P < 0.0001) and recreational drug use within 24 h of baseline visit (P = 0.015) were identified as potential predictors of time to first psychiatric hospitalization after beginning to take olanzapine LAI. At the time of interim analysis, 5 PDSS events had occurred, which was too few for a full analysis of those events. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate a significant reduction in the incidence and days of hospitalization from the 6-month period before to the 6-month period after olanzapine LAI initiation, which suggests reduced relapse and hospitalization during treatment. Results should be interpreted with caution due to the observational nature of the study and use of retrospective baseline data.

Medical costs of Alzheimer's disease misdiagnosis among US Medicare beneficiaries.

INTRODUCTION: Recent developments in diagnostic technology can support earlier, more accurate diagnosis of non-Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementias. METHODS: To evaluate potential economic benefits of early rule-out of AD, annual medical resource use and costs for Medicare beneficiaries potentially misdiagnosed with AD prior to their diagnosis of vascular dementia (VD) or Parkinson's disease (PD) were compared with that of similar patients never diagnosed with AD. RESULTS: Patients with prior AD diagnosis used substantially more medical services every year until their VD/PD diagnosis, resulting in incremental annual medical costs of approximately $9,500-$14,000. However, following their corrected diagnosis, medical costs converged with those of patients never diagnosed with AD. DISCUSSION: The observed correlation between timing of correct diagnosis and subsequent reversal in excess costs is strongly suggestive of the role of misdiagnosis of AD - rather than AD comorbidity - in this patient population. Our findings suggest potential benefits from earlier, accurate diagnosis.

Direct medical costs and medication compliance among fibromyalgia patients: duloxetine initiators vs. pregabalin initiators.

OBJECTIVES: To assess and compare direct medical costs and medication compliance between patients with fibromyalgia who initiated duloxetine and patients with fibromyalgia who initiated pregabalin in 2008. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study design was used based on a large US national commercial claims database (2006 to 2009). Patients with fibromyalgia aged 18 to 64 who initiated duloxetine or pregabalin in 2008 and who had continuous health insurance 1 year preceding and 1 year following the initiation were selected into duloxetine cohort or pregabalin cohort based on their initiated agent. Medication compliance was measured by total supply days, medication possession ratio (MPR), and proportion of patients with MPR ≥ 0.8. Direct medical costs were measured by annual costs per patient and compared between the cohorts in the year following the initiation. Propensity score stratification and bootstrapping methods were used to adjust for distribution bias, as well as cross-cohort differences in demographic, clinical and economic characteristics, and medication history prior to the initiation. RESULTS: Both the duloxetine (n = 3,033) and pregabalin (n = 4,838) cohorts had a mean initiation age around 49 years, 89% were women. During the postindex year, compared to the pregabalin cohort, the duloxetine cohort had higher totally annual supply days (273.5 vs. 176.6, P < 0.05), higher MPR (0.7 vs. 0.5, P < 0.05), and more patients with MPR ≥ 0.8 (45.1% vs. 29.4%, P < 0.05). Further, relative to pregabalin cohort, duloxetine cohort had lower inpatient costs ($2,994.9 vs. $4,949.6, P < 0.05), lower outpatient costs ($8,259.6 vs. $10,312.2, P < 0.05), similar medication costs ($5,214.6 vs. $5,290.8, P > 0.05), and lower total medical costs ($16,469.1 vs. $20,552.6, P < 0.05) in the postinitiation year. CONCLUSIONS: In a real-world setting, patients with fibromyalgia who initiated duloxetine in 2008 had better medication compliance and consumed less inpatient, outpatient, and total medical costs than those who initiated pregabalin.

Predicting Response to Bolus Insulin Therapy in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a predictive model to classify people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) into expected levels of success upon bolus insulin initiation. METHODS: Machine learning methods were applied to a large nationally representative insurance claims database from the United States (dNHI database; data from 2007 to 2017). We trained boosted decision tree ensembles (XGBoost) to assign people into Class 0 (never meeting HbA1c goal), Class 1 (meeting but not maintaining HbA1c goal), or Class 2 (meeting and maintaining HbA1c goal) based on the demographic and clinical data available prior to initiating bolus insulin. The primary objective of the study was to develop a model capable of determining at an individual level, whether people with T2D are likely to achieve and maintain HbA1c goals. HbA1c goal was defined at <8.0% or reduction of baseline HbA1c by >1.0%. RESULTS: Of 15 331 people with T2D (mean age, 53.0 years; SD, 8.7), 7800 (50.9%) people met HbA1c goal but failed to maintain that goal (Class 1), 4510 (29.4%) never attained this goal (Class 0), and 3021 (19.7%) people met and maintained this goal (Class 2). Overall, the model's receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was 0.79 with greater performance on predicting those in Class 2 (ROC = 0.92) than those in Classes 0 and 1 (ROC = 0.71 and 0.62, respectively). The model achieved high area under the precision-recall curves for the individual classes (Class 0, 0.46; Class 1, 0.58; Class 2, 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Predictive modeling using routine health care data reasonably accurately classified patients initiating bolus insulin who would achieve and maintain HbA1c goals, but less so for differentiation between patients who never met and who did not maintain goals. Prior HbA1c was a major contributing parameter for the predictions.

A cross-validation of the provisional diagnostic instrument (PDI-4).

BACKGROUND: The Provisional Diagnostic Instrument (PDI-4) is a brief, adult self-report instrument for 4 common psychiatric diagnoses in primary care patients: major depressive episode (MDE), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and bipolar I disorder based on past or present mania. Our objective was to assess validity of the PDI-4 in a population independent of the study population originally used to develop the scale. METHODS: An online version of the 17-item PDI-4 was administered to 1,047 adults in the US; respondents also completed the PHQ-9, HADS-A, CAARS-S, and MDQ within the online survey. Respondents self-reported diagnosis by a healthcare professional with the terms depression (n=221), anxiety (n=218), attention deficit disorder (n=206), bipolar or manic depressive disorder (n=195), or none of these (n=207). Statistical analyses examined convergent and discriminant validity, and operating characteristics of the PDI-4 relative to the individual, validated, self-rated scales PHQ-9, HADS-A, CAARS-S, and MDQ, for each PDI-4 diagnosis. RESULTS: Convergent validity of the PDI-4 was supported by strong correlations with the corresponding individual scales (range of 0.63 [PDI-4 and MDQ] to 0.87 [PDI-4 and PHQ-9]). Operating characteristics of the PDI-4 were similar to results in the previous site-based study. The scale exhibited moderate sensitivities (0.52 [mania] to 0.70 [ADHD]) and strong specificities (0.86 [mania] to 0.92 [GAD]) using the individual scales as the gold standards. ANOVAs demonstrated that PDI-4 discriminated between subsets of patients defined by pre-specified severity level cutoff scores of the individual scales. However, overlapping symptoms and co-morbidities made differentiation between mental diagnoses much weaker than differentiation from the control group with none of the diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: The PDI-4 appears to be a suitable, brief, self-rated tool for provisional diagnoses of common mental disorders. However, the high level of symptom overlap between these diagnoses emphasizes that such brief scales are not a replacement for thorough diagnostic evaluation by trained medical providers.

The challenges of evaluating dose response in flexible-dose trials using marginal structural models.

Assessing dose response from flexible-dose clinical trials is problematic. The true dose effect may be obscured and even reversed in observed data because dose is related to both previous and subsequent outcomes. To remove selection bias, we propose marginal structural models, inverse probability of treatment-weighting (IPTW) methodology. Potential clinical outcomes are compared across dose groups using a marginal structural model (MSM) based on a weighted pooled repeated measures analysis (generalized estimating equations with robust estimates of standard errors), with dose effect represented by current dose and recent dose history, and weights estimated from the data (via logistic regression) and determined as products of (i) inverse probability of receiving dose assignments that were actually received and (ii) inverse probability of remaining on treatment by this time. In simulations, this method led to almost unbiased estimates of true dose effect under various scenarios. Results were compared with those obtained by unweighted analyses and by weighted analyses under various model specifications. The simulation showed that the IPTW MSM methodology is highly sensitive to model misspecification even when weights are known. Practitioners applying MSM should be cautious about the challenges of implementing MSM with real clinical data. Clinical trial data are used to illustrate the methodology.

Causal analyses with target trial emulation for real-world evidence removed large self-inflicted biases: systematic bias assessment of ovarian cancer treatment effectiveness.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Drawing causal conclusions from real-world data (RWD) poses methodological challenges and risk of bias. We aimed to systematically assess the type and impact of potential biases that may occur when analyzing RWD using the case of progressive ovarian cancer. METHODS: We retrospectively compared overall survival with and without second-line chemotherapy (LOT2) using electronic medical records. Potential biases were determined using directed acyclic graphs. We followed a stepwise analytic approach ranging from crude analysis and multivariable-adjusted Cox model up to a full causal analysis using a marginal structural Cox model with replicates emulating a reference randomized controlled trial (RCT). To assess biases, we compared effect estimates (hazard ratios [HRs]) of each approach to the HR of the reference trial. RESULTS: The reference trial showed an HR for second line vs. delayed therapy of 1.01 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.82-1.25). The corresponding HRs from the RWD analysis ranged from 0.51 for simple baseline adjustments to 1.41 (95% CI: 1.22-1.64) accounting for immortal time bias with time-varying covariates. Causal trial emulation yielded an HR of 1.12 (95% CI: 0.96-1.28). CONCLUSION: Our study, using ovarian cancer as an example, shows the importance of a thorough causal design and analysis if one is expecting RWD to emulate clinical trial results.

A provisional screening instrument for four common mental disorders in adult primary care patients.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an adult self-report instrument for provisional diagnosis of four common mental disorders in primary care patients. METHODS: Primary care patients were evaluated during routine clinic visits with a self-report screening tool comprised of 85 DSM-IV symptom-based candidate questions. Patients with a physician-assessed provisional diagnosis for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), major depressive episode (MDE), past/present mania, and adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), or none of these, completed additional self-report clinical questionnaires, and then were interviewed on the telephone by a trained rater for a SCID/ACDS diagnosis. Responses to the symptom-based candidate questions were used to calculate sensitivity and specificity for a SCID/ACDS diagnosis (GAD, N = 24; MDE, N = 89; Mania, N = 24; ADHD, N = 65) and to select the optimal four questions for each diagnosis to be included in the instrument. RESULTS: Analyses resulted in a 17-item instrument for provisional differential diagnosis of GAD, MDE, past/present mania, and ADHD. Comparison of limited symptom-based versus full DSM-IV criteria-based diagnosis showed minimal differences for relative diagnostic accuracy. Sensitivities and specificities, respectively, were 83% and 75% for GAD, 80% and 80% for MDE, 83% and 82% for mania, and 82%and 73% for ADHD. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this preliminary work, the Provisional Diagnostic Instrument-4 is a brief, easily scored, self-report instrument that may assist primary care physicians to identify potential cases of GAD, MDE, past/present mania, and ADHD.

Sustained favorable long-term outcome in the treatment of schizophrenia: a 3-year prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: This study of chronically ill patients with schizophrenia aimed to identify patients who achieve sustained favorable long-term outcome - when the outcome incorporates severity of symptoms, level of functioning, and use of acute care services - and to identify the best baseline predictors of achieving this sustained favorable long-term outcome. METHODS: Using data from the United States Schizophrenia Care and Assessment Program (US-SCAP) (N = 2327), a large 3-year prospective, multisite, observational study of individuals treated for schizophrenia in the US, a hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to group patients based upon baseline symptom severity. Symptom severity was assessed using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) scores, level of functioning, and use of acute care services. Level of functioning reflected patient-reported productivity and clinician-rated occupational role functioning. Use of acute care services reflected self-reported psychiatric hospitalization and emergency service use. Change of health state was determined over the 3-year period. A patient was classified as having a sustained favorable long-term outcome if their health state values had the closest distance to the defined "best baseline cluster" at each point over the length of the study. Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine baseline predictors of sustained favorable long-term outcome. RESULTS: At baseline, 5 distinct health state clusters were identified, ranging from "best" to "worst." Of 1635 patients with sufficient data, only 157 (10%) experienced sustained favorable long-term outcome during the 2-years postbaseline. The baseline predictors associated with sustained favorable long-term outcome included better quality of life, more daily activities, patient-reported clearer thinking from medication, better global functioning, being employed, not being a victim of a crime, not having received individual therapy, and not having received help with shopping and leisure activities. CONCLUSIONS: Only a small percentage of patients achieved sustained favorable long-term outcome in this study, suggesting there continues to be a great need for improvement in the treatment of schizophrenia. Findings suggest that clinicians could make early projections of health states and identify those patients more likely to achieve favorable long-term outcomes enabling early therapeutic interventions to enhance benefits for patients.

Predicting optimal treatment regimens for patients with HR+/HER2- breast cancer using machine learning based on electronic health records.

Aim: To predict optimal treatments maximizing overall survival (OS) and time to treatment discontinuation (TTD) for patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) using machine learning methods on electronic health records. Patients/methods: Adult females with HR+/HER2- MBC on first- or second-line systemic therapy were eligible. Random survival forest (RSF) models were used to predict optimal regimen classes for individual patients and each line of therapy based on baseline characteristics. Results: RSF models suggested greater use of CDK4 & 6 inhibitor-based therapies may maximize OS and TTD. RSF-predicted optimal treatments demonstrated longer OS and TTD compared with nonoptimal treatments across line of therapy (hazard ratios = 0.44∼0.79). Conclusion: RSF may help inform optimal treatment choices and improve outcomes for patients with HR+/HER2- MBC.

Predictors of switching antipsychotic medications in the treatment of schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: To identify patient characteristics and early changes in patients' clinical status that best predict subsequent switching of antipsychotic agents in the long-term treatment of schizophrenia. METHODS: This post-hoc analysis used data from a one-year randomized, open-label, multisite study of antipsychotics in the treatment of schizophrenia. The study protocol permitted switching of antipsychotics when clinically warranted after the first eight weeks. Baseline patient characteristics were assessed using standard psychiatric measures and reviews of medical records. The prediction model included baseline sociodemographics, comorbid psychiatric and non-psychiatric conditions, body weight, clinical and functional variables, as well as change scores on standard efficacy and tolerability measures during the first two weeks of treatment. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to identify the best predictors of switching from the initially assigned antipsychotic medication. RESULTS: About one-third of patients (29.5%, 191/648) switched antipsychotics before the end of the one-year study. There were six variables identified as the best predictors of switching: lack of antipsychotic use in the prior year, pre-existing depression, female gender, lack of substance use disorder, worsening of akathisia (as measured by the Barnes Akathisia Scale), and worsening of symptoms of depression/anxiety (subscale score on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale) during the first two weeks of antipsychotic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Switching antipsychotics appears to be prevalent in the naturalistic treatment of schizophrenia and can be predicted by a small and distinct set of variables. Interestingly, worsening of anxiety and depressive symptoms and of akathisia following two weeks of treatment were among the more robust predictors of subsequent switching of antipsychotics.

Involvement in the US criminal justice system and cost implications for persons treated for schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with schizophrenia may have a higher risk of encounters with the criminal justice system than the general population, but there are limited data on such encounters and their attendant costs. This study assessed the prevalence of encounters with the criminal justice system, encounter types, and the estimated cost attributable to these encounters in the one-year treatment of persons with schizophrenia. METHODS: This post-hoc analysis used data from a prospective one-year cost-effectiveness study of persons treated with antipsychotics for schizophrenia and related disorders in the United States. Criminal justice system involvement was assessed using the Schizophrenia Patients Outcome Research Team (PORT) client survey and the victimization subscale of the Lehman Quality of Life Interview (QOLI). Direct cost of criminal justice system involvement was estimated using previously reported costs per type of encounter. Patients with and without involvement were compared on baseline characteristics and direct annual health care and criminal justice system-related costs. RESULTS: Overall, 278 (46%) of 609 participants reported at least 1 criminal justice system encounter. They were more likely to be substance users and less adherent to antipsychotics compared to participants without involvement. The 2 most prevalent types of encounters were being a victim of a crime (67%) and being on parole or probation (26%). The mean annual per-patient cost of involvement was $1,429, translating to 6% of total annual direct health care costs for those with involvement (11% when excluding crime victims). CONCLUSIONS: Criminal justice system involvement appears to be prevalent and costly for persons treated for schizophrenia in the United States. Findings highlight the need to better understand the interface between the mental health and the criminal justice systems and the related costs, in personal, societal, and economic terms.