Catalyzing success in community-based conservation.

Efforts to devolve rights and engage Indigenous Peoples and local communities in conservation have increased the demand for evidence of the efficacy of community-based conservation (CBC) and insights into what enables its success. We examined the human well-being and environmental outcomes of a diverse set of 128 CBC projects. Over 80% of CBC projects had some positive human well-being or environmental outcomes, although just 32% achieved positive outcomes for both (i.e., combined success). We coded 57 total national-, community-, and project-level variables and controls from this set, performed random forest classification to identify the variables most important to combined success, and calculated accumulated local effects to describe their individual influence on the probability of achieving it. The best predictors of combined success were 17 variables suggestive of various recommendations and opportunities for conservation practitioners related to national contexts, community characteristics, and the implementation of various strategies and interventions informed by existing CBC frameworks. Specifically, CBC projects had higher probabilities of combined success when they occurred in national contexts supportive of local governance, confronted challenges to collective action, promoted economic diversification, and invested in various capacity-building efforts. Our results provide important insights into how to encourage greater success in CBC.

Los esfuerzos por transferirle derechos e involucrar a los pueblos originarios y a las comunidades locales en la conservación han incrementado la demanda de evidencia sobre la eficiencia de la conservación basada en la comunidad (CBC) y de conocimiento sobre lo que posibilita su éxito. Analizamos los resultados ambientales y de bienestar humano en un conjunto diverso de 28 proyectos de CBC. Más del 80% de estos proyectos tuvieron resultados positivos para el ambiente o el bienestar humano, aunque sólo el 32% logró resultados positivos para ambos (es decir, éxito combinado). Codificamos en total 57 variables y controles a nivel nacional, comunitario y de proyecto en este conjunto, aplicamos una clasificación aleatoria de bosque para identificar las variables más importantes para el éxito combinado y calculamos los efectos locales acumulados para describir su influencia sobre la probabilidad de alcanzar el éxito combinado. Los mejores pronósticos del éxito combinado se obtuvieron con 17 variables sugerentes de varias políticas y oportunidades para los practicantes de la conservación relacionadas con los contextos nacionales, las características de la comunidad y la implementación de varias estrategias e intervenciones guiadas por los marcos existentes de CBC. Específicamente, los proyectos de CBC tuvieron mayor probabilidad de tener éxito combinado cuando se dieron dentro de contextos nacionales que respaldan la gobernanza local, enfrentan los retos de la acción colectiva, promueven la diversificación económica e invierten en varios esfuerzos por construir capacidades. Nuestros resultados proporcionan información importante sobre cómo alentar un mayor éxito en la CBC.

Mapping global land conversion pressure to support conservation planning.

Proactively identifying where land conversion might occur is critical to targeted and effective conservation planning. Previous efforts to map future habitat loss have largely focused on forested systems and have been limited in their consideration of drivers of loss. We developed a 1-km resolution, global map of land conversion pressure from multiple drivers, referred to as the conversion pressure index (CPI). The CPI combines past rates of anthropogenic change, as measured by temporal human modification maps, with suitability maps for potential future expansion by large-scale development. The CPI thus offers a new way to measure a cumulative gradient of anthropogenic pressure as opposed to categorical land cover change. We find that nearly 23% of land across 200 countries have relatively high conversion pressure, potentially impacting over 460 million ha of intact natural lands. We illustrate how this information can be used to identify areas for proactive conservation to avoid future loss and ensure that national commitments under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity and Paris Agreement Climate Frameworks are upheld.