How much should we still worry about QTc prolongation in rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis? ECG findings from TB-PRACTECAL clinical trial.

Regimens for the treatment of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis currently rely on the use of QT-prolonging agents. Using data from the randomized controlled trial, TB-PRACTECAL, we investigated differences in QTcF among participants in the three interventional arms: BPaL (bedaquiline, pretomanid, and linezolid), BPaLC (BPaL with clofazimine), and BPaLM (BPaL with moxifloxacin). Additionally, we assessed whether age, body mass index, and country were causally associated with QTcF prolongation. The trial included participants from South Africa, Uzbekistan, and Belarus. A post hoc analysis of electrocardiogram data was undertaken. Random effects regression was used to model QTcF longitudinally over 24 weeks and causal frameworks guided the analysis of non-randomized independent variables. 328 participants were included in BPaL-based arms. The longitudinal analysis of investigational arms showed an initial QTcF steep increase in the first week. QTcF trajectories between weeks 2 and 24 differed slightly by regimen, with highest mean peak for BPaLC (QTcF 446.5 ms). Overall, there were 397 QTcF >450 ms (of 3,744) and only one QTcF >500 ms. The odds of QTcF >450 ms among participants in any investigational arm, was 8.33 times higher in Uzbekistan compared to Belarus (95% confidence interval: 3.25-21.33). No effect on QTcF prolongation was found for baseline age or body mass index (BMI). Clinically significant QTc prolongation was rare in this cohort of closely monitored participants. Across BPaL-based regimens, BPaLC showed a slightly longer and sustained effect on QTcF prolongation, but the differences (both in magnitude of change and trajectory over time) were clinically unimportant. The disparity in the risk of QTc prolongation across countries would be an important factor to further investigate when evaluating monitoring strategies. CLINICAL TRIALS: This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02589782.

Forgiveness Is the Attribute of the Strong: Nonadherence and Regimen Shortening in Drug-sensitive Tuberculosis.

Rationale: "Forgiveness" charts the ability of a drug or regimen to withstand nonadherence without negative clinical consequences. Objectives: We aimed to determine the influence of regimen length, regimen drugs, and dosing, and when during treatment nonadherence occurs on the forgiveness of antituberculosis regimens. Methods: Using data from three randomized controlled trials comparing experimental 4-month regimens for drug-sensitive tuberculosis with the standard 6-month regimen, we used generalized linear models to examine how the risk of a negative composite outcome changed as dose-taking decreased. The percentage of doses taken and the absolute number of doses missed were calculated during the intensive and continuation phases of treatment, and overall. A mediation analysis was undertaken to determine how much the association between intensive phase dose-taking and the negative composite outcome was mediated through continuation phase dose-taking. Measurements and Main Results: Forgiveness of the 4- and 6-month regimens did not differ for any treatment period. Importantly, 4-month regimens were no less forgiving of small numbers of absolute missed doses than the 6-month regimen (e.g., for 3-7 missed doses vs. no missed doses [baseline], 6-month regimen adjusted risk ratio 1.65 [95% confidence interval, 0.80-3.41] and 4-month regimens 1.80 [1.33-2.45]). No 4-month regimen was conclusively more forgiving than another. We found evidence of mediation by continuation phase dose-taking on the intensive phase dose-taking and negative composite outcome relationship. Conclusions: With the current appetite for, and progress toward, shorter drug-sensitive tuberculosis regimens worldwide, we offer reassurance that shorter regimens are not necessarily less forgiving of nonadherence. Given the importance of continuation phase adherence, patient support during this period should not be neglected.

Cluster randomised trials with a binary outcome and a small number of clusters: comparison of individual and cluster level analysis method.

BACKGROUND: Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are often designed with a small number of clusters, but it is not clear which analysis methods are optimal when the outcome is binary. This simulation study aimed to determine (i) whether cluster-level analysis (CL), generalised linear mixed models (GLMM), and generalised estimating equations with sandwich variance (GEE) approaches maintain acceptable type-one error including the impact of non-normality of cluster effects and low prevalence, and if so (ii) which methods have the greatest power. We simulated CRTs with 8-30 clusters, altering the cluster-size, outcome prevalence, intracluster correlation coefficient, and cluster effect distribution. We analysed each dataset with weighted and unweighted CL; GLMM with adaptive quadrature and restricted pseudolikelihood; GEE with Kauermann-and-Carroll and Fay-and-Graubard sandwich variance using independent and exchangeable working correlation matrices. P-values were from a t-distribution with degrees of freedom (DoF) as clusters minus cluster-level parameters; GLMM pseudolikelihood also used Satterthwaite and Kenward-Roger DoF. RESULTS: Unweighted CL, GLMM pseudolikelihood, and Fay-and-Graubard GEE with independent or exchangeable working correlation matrix controlled type-one error in > 97% scenarios with clusters minus parameters DoF. Cluster-effect distribution and prevalence of outcome did not usually affect analysis method performance. GEE had the least power. With 20-30 clusters, GLMM had greater power than CL with varying cluster-size but similar power otherwise; with fewer clusters, GLMM had lower power with common cluster-size, similar power with medium variation, and greater power with large variation in cluster-size. CONCLUSION: We recommend that CRTs with ≤ 30 clusters and a binary outcome use an unweighted CL or restricted pseudolikelihood GLMM both with DoF clusters minus cluster-level parameters.

Annual Tuberculosis Preventive Therapy for Persons With HIV Infection : A Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis preventive therapy for persons with HIV infection is effective, but its durability is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare treatment completion rates of weekly isoniazid-rifapentine for 3 months versus daily isoniazid for 6 months as well as the effectiveness of the 3-month rifapentine-isoniazid regimen given annually for 2 years versus once. DESIGN: Randomized trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02980016). SETTING: South Africa, Ethiopia, and Mozambique. PARTICIPANTS: Persons with HIV infection who were receiving antiretroviral therapy, were aged 2 years or older, and did not have active tuberculosis. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomly assigned to receive weekly rifapentine-isoniazid for 3 months, given either annually for 2 years or once, or daily isoniazid for 6 months. Participants were screened for tuberculosis symptoms at months 0 to 3 and 12 of each study year and at months 12 and 24 using chest radiography and sputum culture. MEASUREMENTS: Treatment completion was assessed using pill counts. Tuberculosis incidence was measured over 24 months. RESULTS: Between November 2016 and November 2017, 4027 participants were enrolled; 4014 were included in the analyses (median age, 41 years; 69.5% women; all using antiretroviral therapy). Treatment completion in the first year for the combined rifapentine-isoniazid groups (n = 3610) was 90.4% versus 50.5% for the isoniazid group (n = 404) (risk ratio, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.61 to 1.95]). Tuberculosis incidence among participants receiving the rifapentine-isoniazid regimen twice (n = 1808) or once (n = 1802) was similar (hazard ratio, 0.96 [CI, 0.61 to 1.50]). LIMITATION: If rifapentine-isoniazid is effective in curing subclinical tuberculosis, then the intensive tuberculosis screening at month 12 may have reduced its effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Treatment completion was higher with rifapentine-isoniazid for 3 months compared with isoniazid for 6 months. In settings with high tuberculosis transmission, a second round of preventive therapy did not provide additional benefit to persons receiving antiretroviral therapy. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: The U.S. Agency for International Development through the CHALLENGE TB grant to the KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation.

Evidence for the Use of Triage, Respiratory Isolation, and Effective Treatment to Reduce the Transmission of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in Healthcare Settings: A Systematic Review.

Evidence is limited for infection prevention and control (IPC) measures reducing Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) transmission in health facilities. This systematic review, 1 of 7 commissioned by the World Health Organization to inform the 2019 update of global tuberculosis (TB) IPC guidelines, asked: do triage and/or isolation and/or effective treatment of TB disease reduce MTB transmission in healthcare settings? Of 25 included articles, 19 reported latent TB infection (LTBI) incidence in healthcare workers (HCWs; absolute risk reductions 1%-21%); 5 reported TB disease incidence in HCWs (no/slight [high TB burden] or moderate [low burden] reduction) and 2 in human immunodeficiency virus-positive in-patients (6%-29% reduction). In total, 23/25 studies implemented multiple IPC measures; effects of individual measures could not be disaggregated. Packages of IPC measures appeared to reduce MTB transmission, but evidence for effectiveness of triage, isolation, or effective treatment, alone or in combination, was indirect and low quality. Harmonizing study designs and reporting frameworks will permit formal data syntheses and facilitate policy making.

Cost-effectiveness of a Novel Lipoarabinomannan Test for Tuberculosis in Patients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: A novel urine lipoarabinomannan assay (FujiLAM) has higher sensitivity and higher cost than the first-generation AlereLAM assay. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of FujiLAM for tuberculosis testing among hospitalized people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), irrespective of symptoms. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to project clinical and economic outcomes of 3 testing strategies: (1) sputum Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert), (2) sputum Xpert plus urine AlereLAM (Xpert+AlereLAM), (3) sputum Xpert plus urine FujiLAM (Xpert+FujiLAM). The modeled cohort matched that of a 2-country clinical trial. We applied diagnostic yields from a retrospective study (yields for Xpert/Xpert+AlereLAM/Xpert+FujiLAM among those with CD4 <200 cells/µL: 33%/62%/70%; among those with CD4 ≥200 cells/µL: 33%/35%/47%). Costs of Xpert/AlereLAM/FujiLAM were US$15/3/6 (South Africa) and $25/3/6 (Malawi). Xpert+FujiLAM was considered cost-effective if its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (US$/year-of-life saved) was <$940 (South Africa) and <$750 (Malawi). We varied key parameters in sensitivity analysis and performed a budget impact analysis of implementing FujiLAM countrywide. RESULTS: Compared with Xpert+AlereLAM, Xpert+FujiLAM increased life expectancy by 0.2 years for those tested in South Africa and Malawi. Xpert+FujiLAM was cost-effective in both countries. Xpert+FujiLAM for all patients remained cost-effective compared with sequential testing and CD4-stratified testing strategies. FujiLAM use added 3.5% (South Africa) and 4.7% (Malawi) to 5-year healthcare costs of tested patients, primarily reflecting ongoing HIV treatment costs among survivors. CONCLUSIONS: FujiLAM with Xpert for tuberculosis testing in hospitalized people with HIV is likely to increase life expectancy and be cost-effective at the currently anticipated price in South Africa and Malawi. Additional studies should evaluate FujiLAM in clinical practice settings.

Dynamics of sputum conversion during effective tuberculosis treatment: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Two weeks' isolation is widely recommended for people commencing treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The evidence that this corresponds to clearance of potentially infectious tuberculous mycobacteria in sputum is not well established. This World Health Organization-commissioned review investigated sputum sterilisation dynamics during TB treatment. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For the main analysis, 2 systematic literature searches of OvidSP MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health, and EBSCO CINAHL Plus were conducted to identify studies with data on TB infectiousness (all studies to search date, 1 December 2017) and all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for drug-susceptible TB (from 1 January 1990 to search date, 20 February 2018). Included articles reported on patients receiving effective treatment for culture-confirmed drug-susceptible pulmonary TB. The outcome of interest was sputum bacteriological conversion: the proportion of patients having converted by a defined time point or a summary measure of time to conversion, assessed by smear or culture. Any study design with 10 or more particpants was considered. Record sifting and data extraction were performed in duplicate. Random effects meta-analyses were performed. A narrative summary additionally describes the results of a systematic search for data evaluating infectiousness from humans to experimental animals (PubMed, all studies to 27 March 2018). Other evidence on duration of infectiousness-including studies reporting on cough dynamics, human tuberculin skin test conversion, or early bactericidal activity of TB treatments-was outside the scope of this review. The literature search was repeated on 22 November 2020, at the request of the editors, to identify studies published after the previous censor date. Four small studies reporting 3 different outcome measures were identified, which included no data that would alter the findings of the review; they are not included in the meta-analyses. Of 5,290 identified records, 44 were included. Twenty-seven (61%) were RCTs and 17 (39%) were cohort studies. Thirteen studies (30%) reported data from Africa, 12 (27%) from Asia, 6 (14%) from South America, 5 (11%) from North America, and 4 (9%) from Europe. Four studies reported data from multiple continents. Summary estimates suggested smear conversion in 9% of patients at 2 weeks (95% CI 3%-24%, 1 single study [N = 1]), and 82% of patients at 2 months of treatment (95% CI 78%-86%, N = 10). Among baseline smear-positive patients, solid culture conversion occurred by 2 weeks in 5% (95% CI 0%-14%, N = 2), increasing to 88% at 2 months (95% CI 84%-92%, N = 20). At equivalent time points, liquid culture conversion was achieved in 3% (95% CI 1%-16%, N = 1) and 59% (95% CI 47%-70%, N = 8). Significant heterogeneity was observed. Further interrogation of the data to explain this heterogeneity was limited by the lack of disaggregation of results, including by factors such as HIV status, baseline smear status, and the presence or absence of lung cavitation. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review found that most patients remained culture positive at 2 weeks of TB treatment, challenging the view that individuals are not infectious after this interval. Culture positivity is, however, only 1 component of infectiousness, with reduced cough frequency and aerosol generation after TB treatment initiation likely to also be important. Studies that integrate our findings with data on cough dynamics could provide a more complete perspective on potential transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis by individuals on treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Systematic review registration: PROSPERO 85226.

Evaluation of implementation and effectiveness of digital adherence technology with differentiated care to support tuberculosis treatment adherence and improve treatment outcomes in Ethiopia: a study protocol for a cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Digital adherence technologies (DATs) are recommended to support patient-centred, differentiated care to improve tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes, but evidence that such technologies improve adherence is limited. We aim to implement and evaluate the effectiveness of smart pillboxes and medication labels linked to an adherence data platform, to create a differentiated care response to patient adherence and improve TB care among adult pulmonary TB participants. Our study is part of the Adherence Support Coalition to End TB (ASCENT) project in Ethiopia. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a pragmatic three-arm cluster-randomised trial with 78 health facilities in two regions in Ethiopia. Facilities are randomised (1:1:1) to either of the two intervention arms or standard of care. Adults aged ≥ 18 years with drug-sensitive (DS) pulmonary TB are enrolled over 12 months and followed-up for 12 months after treatment initiation. Participants in facilities randomised to either of the two intervention arms are offered a DAT linked to the web-based ASCENT adherence platform for daily adherence monitoring and differentiated response to patient adherence for those who have missed doses. Participants at standard of care facilities receive routine care. For those that had bacteriologically confirmed TB at treatment initiation and can produce sputum without induction, sputum culture will be performed approximately 6 months after the end of treatment to measure disease recurrence. The primary endpoint is a composite unfavourable outcome measured over 12 months from TB treatment initiation defined as either poor end of treatment outcome (lost to follow-up, death, or treatment failure) or treatment recurrence measured 6 months after the scheduled end of treatment. This study will also evaluate the effectiveness, feasibility, and cost-effectiveness of DAT systems for DS-TB patients. DISCUSSION: This trial will evaluate the impact and contextual factors of medication label and smart pillbox with a differentiated response to patient care, among adult pulmonary DS-TB participants in Ethiopia. If successful, this evaluation will generate valuable evidence via a shared evaluation framework for optimal use and scale-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202008776694999, https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=12241 , registered on August 11, 2020.

Correction to: Small contribution of gold mines to the ongoing tuberculosis epidemic in South Africa: a modeling-based study.

The original article [1] did not contain comprehensive information regarding two authors' affiliations that may be considered a potential competing interest.

Small contribution of gold mines to the ongoing tuberculosis epidemic in South Africa: a modeling-based study.

BACKGROUND: Gold mines represent a potential hotspot for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission and may be exacerbating the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic in South Africa. However, the presence of multiple factors complicates estimation of the mining contribution to the TB burden in South Africa. METHODS: We developed two models of TB in South Africa, a static risk model and an individual-based model that accounts for longer-term trends. Both models account for four populations - mine workers, peri-mining residents, labor-sending residents, and other residents of South Africa - including the size and prevalence of latent TB infection, active TB, and HIV of each population and mixing between populations. We calibrated to mine- and country-level data and used the static model to estimate force of infection (FOI) and new infections attributable to local residents in each community compared to other residents. Using the individual-based model, we simulated a counterfactual scenario to estimate the fraction of overall TB incidence in South Africa attributable to recent transmission in mines. RESULTS: We estimated that the majority of FOI in each community is attributable to local residents: 93.9% (95% confidence interval 92.4-95.1%), 91.5% (91.4-91.5%), and 94.7% (94.7-94.7%) in gold mining, peri-mining, and labor-sending communities, respectively. Assuming a higher rate of Mtb transmission in mines, 4.1% (2.6-5.8%), 5.0% (4.5-5.5%), and 9.0% (8.8-9.1%) of new infections in South Africa are attributable to gold mine workers, peri-mining residents, and labor-sending residents, respectively. Therefore, mine workers with TB disease, who constitute ~ 2.5% of the prevalent TB cases in South Africa, contribute 1.62 (1.04-2.30) times as many new infections as TB cases in South Africa on average. By modeling TB on a longer time scale, we estimate 63.0% (58.5-67.7%) of incident TB disease in gold mining communities to be attributable to recent transmission, of which 92.5% (92.1-92.9%) is attributable to local transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Gold mine workers are estimated to contribute a disproportionately large number of Mtb infections in South Africa on a per-capita basis. However, mine workers contribute only a small fraction of overall Mtb infections in South Africa. Our results suggest that curtailing transmission in mines may have limited impact at the country level, despite potentially significant impact at the mining level.

Challenges in the Estimation of the Annual Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Children Aged Less Than 5 Years.

Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012-2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%-11.5% at ages <2 years and 0.8%-3.3% at ages 2-4 years. The Rust and Thomas method was the only method to give a lower estimate in the younger age group (0.7% vs 0.8%), suggesting that it was the only method that adjusted appropriately for the marked effect of BCG-attributable induration in the very young.

A trial of mass isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis control.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is epidemic among workers in South African gold mines. We evaluated an intervention to interrupt tuberculosis transmission by means of mass screening that was linked to treatment for active disease or latent infection. METHODS: In a cluster-randomized study, we designated 15 clusters with 78,744 miners as either intervention clusters (40,981 miners in 8 clusters) or control clusters (37,763 miners in 7 clusters). In the intervention clusters, all miners were offered tuberculosis screening. If active tuberculosis was diagnosed, they were referred for treatment; if not, they were offered 9 months of isoniazid preventive therapy. The primary outcome was the cluster-level incidence of tuberculosis during the 12 months after the intervention ended. Secondary outcomes included tuberculosis prevalence at study completion. RESULTS: In the intervention clusters, 27,126 miners (66.2%) underwent screening. Of these miners, 23,659 (87.2%) started taking isoniazid, and isoniazid was dispensed for 6 months or more to 35 to 79% of miners, depending on the cluster. The intervention did not reduce the incidence of tuberculosis, with rates of 3.02 per 100 person-years in the intervention clusters and 2.95 per 100 person-years in the control clusters (rate ratio in the intervention clusters, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 1.34; P=0.98; adjusted rate ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.21; P=0.71), or the prevalence of tuberculosis (2.35% vs. 2.14%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.48; P=0.90). Analysis of the direct effect of isoniazid in 10,909 miners showed a reduced incidence of tuberculosis during treatment (1.10 cases per 100 person-years among miners receiving isoniazid vs. 2.91 cases per 100 person-years among controls; adjusted rate ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.88; P=0.03), but there was a subsequent rapid loss of protection. CONCLUSIONS: Mass screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis had no significant effect on tuberculosis control in South African gold mines, despite the successful use of isoniazid in preventing tuberculosis during treatment. (Funded by the Consortium to Respond Effectively to the AIDS TB Epidemic and others; Thibela TB Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN63327174.).

Bias and inference from misspecified mixed-effect models in stepped wedge trial analysis.

Many stepped wedge trials (SWTs) are analysed by using a mixed-effect model with a random intercept and fixed effects for the intervention and time periods (referred to here as the standard model). However, it is not known whether this model is robust to misspecification. We simulated SWTs with three groups of clusters and two time periods; one group received the intervention during the first period and two groups in the second period. We simulated period and intervention effects that were either common-to-all or varied-between clusters. Data were analysed with the standard model or with additional random effects for period effect or intervention effect. In a second simulation study, we explored the weight given to within-cluster comparisons by simulating a larger intervention effect in the group of the trial that experienced both the control and intervention conditions and applying the three analysis models described previously. Across 500 simulations, we computed bias and confidence interval coverage of the estimated intervention effect. We found up to 50% bias in intervention effect estimates when period or intervention effects varied between clusters and were treated as fixed effects in the analysis. All misspecified models showed undercoverage of 95% confidence intervals, particularly the standard model. A large weight was given to within-cluster comparisons in the standard model. In the SWTs simulated here, mixed-effect models were highly sensitive to departures from the model assumptions, which can be explained by the high dependence on within-cluster comparisons. Trialists should consider including a random effect for time period in their SWT analysis model. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The timing of tuberculosis after isoniazid preventive therapy among gold miners in South Africa: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The durability of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) in preventing tuberculosis (TB) is limited in high-prevalence settings. The underlying mechanism (reactivation of persistent latent TB or reinfection) is not known. We aimed to investigate the timing of TB incidence during and after IPT and associated risk factors in a very high TB and HIV-prevalence setting, and to compare the observed rate with a modelled estimate of TB incidence rate after IPT due to reinfection. METHODS: In a post-hoc analysis of a cluster-randomized trial of community-wide IPT among South African gold miners, all intervention arm participants that were dispensed IPT for at least one of the intended 9 months were included. An incident TB case was defined as any participant with a positive sputum smear or culture, or with a clinical TB diagnosis assigned by a senior study clinician. Crude TB incidence rates were calculated during and after IPT, overall and by follow-up time. HIV status was not available. Multivariable Cox regression was used to analyse risk factors by follow-up time after IPT. Estimates from a published mathematical model of trial data were used to calculate the average reinfection TB incidence in the first year after IPT. RESULTS: Among 18,520 participants (96% male, mean age 41 years, median follow-up 2.1 years), 708 developed TB. The TB incidence rate during the intended IPT period was 1.3/100 person-years (pyrs; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0-1.6) and afterwards 2.3/100 pyrs (95% CI, 1.9-2.7). TB incidence increased within 6 months followed by a stable rate over time. There was no evidence for changing risk factors for TB disease over time after miners stopped IPT. The average TB incidence rate attributable to reinfection in the first year was estimated at 1.3/100 pyrs, compared to an observed rate of 2.2/100 pyrs (95% CI, 1.8-2.7). CONCLUSIONS: The durability of protection by IPT was lost within 6-12 months in this setting with a high HIV prevalence and a high annual risk of M. tuberculosis infection. The observed rate was higher than the modelled rate, suggesting that reactivation of persistent latent infection played a role in the rapid return to baseline TB incidence.

Rapid urine-based screening for tuberculosis to reduce AIDS-related mortality in hospitalized patients in Africa (the STAMP trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) co-infection remains an enormous burden to international public health. Post-mortem studies have highlighted the high proportion of HIV-positive adults admitted to hospital with TB. Determine TB-LAM and Xpert MTB/RIF assays can substantially increase diagnostic yield of TB within one day of hospital admission. However, it remains unclear if this approach can impact clinical outcomes. The STAMP trial aims to test the hypothesis that the implementation a urine-based screening strategy for TB can reduce all cause-mortality among HIV-positive patients admitted to hospital when compared to current, sputum-based screening. METHODS: The trial is a pragmatic, individually randomised, multi-country (Malawi and South Africa) clinical trial with two study arms (1:1 recruitment). Unselected HIV-positive patients admitted to medical wards, irrespective of presentation, meeting the inclusion criteria and giving consent will be randomized to screening for TB using either: (i) 'standard of care'- testing of sputum using the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) or (ii) 'intervention'- testing of sputum using Xpert and testing of urine using (a) Determine TB-LAM lateral-flow assay and (b) Xpert following concentration of urine by centrifugation. Patients will be excluded if they have received TB treatment in the previous 12 months, if they have received isoniazid preventive therapy in the last 6 months, if they are aged <18 years or they live outside the pre-specified geographical area. Results will be provided to the responsible medical team as soon as available to inform decisions regarding TB treatment. Both the study and routine medical team will be masked to study arm allocation. 1300 patients will be enrolled per arm (equal numbers at the two trial sites). The primary endpoint is all-cause mortality at 56 days. An economic analysis will be conducted to project long-term outcomes for shorter-term trial data, including cost-effectiveness. DISCUSSION: This pragmatic trial assesses an intervention to reduce the high mortality caused by HIV-associated TB, which could feasibly be scaled up in high-burden settings if shown to be efficacious and cost-effective. We discuss the challenges of designing a trial to assess the impact on mortality of laboratory-based TB screening interventions given frequent initiation of empirical treatment and a failure of several previous clinical trials to demonstrate an impact on clinical outcomes. We also elaborate on the practical and ethical issues of 'testing a test' in general. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ( ISRCTN71603869 ) prospectively registered 08 May 2015; the South African National Controlled Trials Registry (DOH-27-1015-5185) prospectively registered October 2015.

Effectiveness of Electronic Reminders to Improve Medication Adherence in Tuberculosis Patients: A Cluster-Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND: Mobile text messaging and medication monitors (medication monitor boxes) have the potential to improve adherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment and reduce the need for directly observed treatment (DOT), but to our knowledge they have not been properly evaluated in TB patients. We assessed the effectiveness of text messaging and medication monitors to improve medication adherence in TB patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In a pragmatic cluster-randomised trial, 36 districts/counties (each with at least 300 active pulmonary TB patients registered in 2009) within the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Chongqing, China, were randomised using stratification and restriction to one of four case-management approaches in which patients received reminders via text messages, a medication monitor, combined, or neither (control). Patients in the intervention arms received reminders to take their drugs and reminders for monthly follow-up visits, and the managing doctor was recommended to switch patients with adherence problems to more intensive management or DOT. In all arms, patients took medications out of a medication monitor box, which recorded when the box was opened, but the box gave reminders only in the medication monitor and combined arms. Patients were followed up for 6 mo. The primary endpoint was the percentage of patient-months on TB treatment where at least 20% of doses were missed as measured by pill count and failure to open the medication monitor box. Secondary endpoints included additional adherence and standard treatment outcome measures. Interventions were not masked to study staff and patients. From 1 June 2011 to 7 March 2012, 4,292 new pulmonary TB patients were enrolled across the 36 clusters. A total of 119 patients (by arm: 33 control, 33 text messaging, 23 medication monitor, 30 combined) withdrew from the study in the first month because they were reassessed as not having TB by their managing doctor (61 patients) or were switched to a different treatment model because of hospitalisation or travel (58 patients), leaving 4,173 TB patients (by arm: 1,104 control, 1,008 text messaging, 997 medication monitor, 1,064 combined). The cluster geometric mean of the percentage of patient-months on TB treatment where at least 20% of doses were missed was 29.9% in the control arm; in comparison, this percentage was 27.3% in the text messaging arm (adjusted mean ratio [aMR] 0.94, 95% CI 0.71, 1.24), 17.0% in the medication monitor arm (aMR 0.58, 95% CI 0.42, 0.79), and 13.9% in the combined arm (aMR 0.49, 95% CI 0.27, 0.88). Patient loss to follow-up was lower in the text messaging arm than the control arm (aMR 0.42, 95% CI 0.18-0.98). Equipment malfunction or operation error was reported in all study arms. Analyses separating patients with and without medication monitor problems did not change the results. Initiation of intensive management was underutilised. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to our knowledge to utilise a randomised trial design to demonstrate the effectiveness of a medication monitor to improve medication adherence in TB patients. Reminders from medication monitors improved medication adherence in TB patients, but text messaging reminders did not. In a setting such as China where universal use of DOT is not feasible, innovative approaches to support patients in adhering to TB treatment, such as this, are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN46846388.

Tuberculosis control in South African gold mines: mathematical modeling of a trial of community-wide isoniazid preventive therapy.

A recent major cluster randomized trial of screening, active disease treatment, and mass isoniazid preventive therapy for 9 months during 2006-2011 among South African gold miners showed reduced individual-level tuberculosis incidence but no detectable population-level impact. We fitted a dynamic mathematical model to trial data and explored 1) factors contributing to the lack of population-level impact, 2) the best-achievable impact if all implementation characteristics were increased to the highest level achieved during the trial ("optimized intervention"), and 3) how tuberculosis might be better controlled with additional interventions (improving diagnostics, reducing treatment delay, providing isoniazid preventive therapy continuously to human immunodeficiency virus-positive people, or scaling up antiretroviral treatment coverage) individually and in combination. We found the following: 1) The model suggests that a small proportion of latent infections among human immunodeficiency virus-positive people were cured, which could have been a key factor explaining the lack of detectable population-level impact. 2) The optimized implementation increased impact by only 10%. 3) Implementing additional interventions individually and in combination led to up to 30% and 75% reductions, respectively, in tuberculosis incidence after 10 years. Tuberculosis control requires a combination prevention approach, including health systems strengthening to minimize treatment delay, improving diagnostics, increased antiretroviral treatment coverage, and effective preventive treatment regimens.

Viral suppression following switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy: associations with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance and subtherapeutic drug concentrations prior to switch.

BACKGROUND: High rates of second-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) failure are reported. The association with resistance and nonadherence on switching to second-line ART requires clarification. METHODS: Using prospectively collected data from patients in South Africa, we constructed a cohort of patients switched to second-line ART (1 January 2003 through 31 December 2008). Genotyping and drug concentrations (lamivudine, nevirapine, and efavirenz) were measured on stored samples preswitch. Their association with viral load (VL) <400 copies/mL by 15 months was assessed using modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-two of 417 patients (49% male; median age, 36 years) had genotyping (n = 115) and/or drug concentrations (n = 80) measured. Median CD4 count and VL at switch were 177 cells/µL (interquartile range [IQR], 77-263) and 4.3 log10 copies/mL (IQR, 3.8-4.7), respectively. Fifty-five percent (n = 44/80) had subtherapeutic drug concentrations preswitch. More patients with therapeutic vs subtherapeutic ART had resistance (n = 73): no major mutations (3% vs 51%), nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (94% vs 44%), M184V/I (94% vs 26%), and ≥ 1 thymidine analogue mutations (47% vs 18%), all P = .01; and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) cross-resistance mutations (26% vs 13%, P = .23). Following switch, 68% (n = 83/122) achieved VL <400 copies/mL. Absence of NRTI mutations and subtherapeutic ART preswitch were associated with failure to achieve VL <400 copies/mL. CONCLUSIONS: Nonadherence, suggested by subtherapeutic ART with/without major resistance mutations, significantly contributed to failure when switching regimen. Unresolved nonadherence, not NRTI resistance, drives early second-line failure.