The effect of neighborhood socioeconomic status on education and health outcomes for children living in social housing.

OBJECTIVES: We explored differences in health and education outcomes between children living in social housing and not, and effects of social housing's neighborhood socioeconomic status. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used the population-based repository of administrative data at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy. We included children aged 0 to 19 years in Winnipeg, Manitoba, in fiscal years 2006-2007 to 2008-2009 (n = 13,238 social housing; n = 174,017 others). We examined 5 outcomes: age-2 complete immunization, a school-readiness measure, adolescent pregnancy (ages 15-19 years), grade-9 completion, and high-school completion. Logistic regression and generalized estimating equation modeling generated rates. We derived neighborhood income quintiles (Q1 lowest, Q5 highest) from average household income census data. RESULTS: Children in social housing fared worse than comparative children within each neighborhood income quintile. When we compared children in social housing by quintile, preschool indicators (immunization and school readiness) were similar, but adolescent outcomes (grade-9 and high-school completion, adolescent pregnancy) were better in Q3 to Q5. CONCLUSIONS: Children in social housing had poorer health and education outcomes than all others, but living in social housing in wealthier areas was associated with better adolescent outcomes.

Construction and validation of a population-based bone densitometry database.

Utilization of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for the initial diagnostic assessment of osteoporosis and in monitoring treatment has risen dramatically in recent years. Population-based studies of the impact of DXA and osteoporosis remain challenging because of incomplete and fragmented test data that exist in most regions. Our aim was to create and assess completeness of a database of all clinical DXA services and test results for the province of Manitoba, Canada and to present descriptive data resulting from testing. A regionally based bone density program for the province of Manitoba, Canada was established in 1997. Subsequent DXA services were prospectively captured in a program database. This database was retrospectively populated with earlier DXA results dating back to 1990 (the year that the first DXA scanner was installed) by integrating multiple data sources. A random chart audit was performed to assess completeness and accuracy of this dataset. For comparison, testing rates determined from the DXA database were compared with physician administrative claims data. There was a high level of completeness of this database (>99%) and accurate personal identifier information sufficient for linkage with other health care administrative data (>99%). This contrasted with physician billing data that were found to be markedly incomplete. Descriptive data provide a profile of individuals receiving DXA and their test results. In conclusion, the Manitoba bone density database has great potential as a resource for clinical and health policy research because it is population based with a high level of completeness and accuracy.

A methodology for estimating hospital bed need in Manitoba in 2020.

A team of health researchers of the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy at the University of Manitoba was asked to forecast the number of acute care hospital beds that will be required to meet the needs of residents of the province of Manitoba by the year 2020. Methodological considerations for this request included identification of factors expected to affect bed use in the future, and how to account for these factors. The objective of this paper is to describe these methodological considerations, how decisions were made, and steps taken in our approach to this problem. The actual projections and their implications are the subject of another contribution in this issue of the journal (Finlayson, Stewart, Tate, MacWilliam & Roos, 2005).

Anticipating change: how many acute care hospital beds will Manitoba regions need in 2020?

Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent 3-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.

Direct costs of fractures in Canada and trends 1996-2006: a population-based cost-of-illness analysis.

Cost-of-illness (COI) analysis is used to evaluate the economic burden of illness in terms of health care resource (HCR) consumption. We used the Population Health Research Data Repository for Manitoba, Canada, to identify HCR costs associated with 33,887 fracture cases (22,953 women and 10,934 men) aged 50 years and older that occurred over a 10-year period (1996-2006) and 101,661 matched control individuals (68,859 women and 32,802 men). Costs (in 2006 Canadian dollars) were estimated for the year before and after fracture, and the change (incremental cost) was modeled using quantile regression analysis to adjust for baseline covariates and to study temporal trends. The greatest total incremental costs were associated with hip fractures (median $16,171 in women and $13,111 for men), followed by spine fractures ($8,345 in women and $6,267 in men). The lowest costs were associated with wrist fractures ($663 in women and $764 in men). Costs for all fracture types were greater in older individuals (p < 0.001). Similar results were obtained with regression-based adjustment for baseline factors. Some costs showed a slight increase over the 10 years. The largest temporal increase in women was for hip fracture ($13 per year, 95% CI $6-$21, p < 0.001) and in men was for humerus fracture ($11 per year, 95% CI $3-$19, p = 0.007). At the population level, hip fractures were responsible for the largest proportion of the costs after age 80, but the other fractures were more important prior to age 80. We found that there are large incremental health care costs associated with incident fractures in Canada. Identifying COI from HCR use offers a cost baseline for measuring the effects of evidence-based guidelines implementation.

A population-based study of osteoporosis testing and treatment following introduction of a new bone densitometry service.

Bone density measurement plays a key role in the initial diagnostic assessment of osteoporosis and in targeting pharmacologic therapies. The impact of access to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) on physician prescribing habits is unclear, however. We were able to directly evaluate the change in physician osteoporosis testing and prescribing following introduction of a DXA testing service in a geographic region that had previously had very limited access. This evaluation was conducted in the province of Manitoba, Canada, which has a provincially based bone density testing program and maintains a population-based bone density database that can be linked with administrative health data sources including drug prescriptions. The province of Manitoba was geographically partitioned into the urban and rural health regions serviced by the new program (urban(new )and rural(new)) and the remaining urban and rural health regions which had relatively unchanged DXA access during this period (urban(control) and rural(control)). Regression models of DXA testing rates and osteoporosis prescription rates were created for all older women in these regions. There was a statistically significant increase in bone density testing and BMD-guided osteoporosis treatment in the urban(new) and rural(new) regions following introduction of the DXA testing service, relative to the control regions. Although the overall rate of empiric postfracture and preventive osteoporosis treatment did not show a specific region effect, when analysis was limited to nonhormonal agents there was a significant reduction in preventive and empiric postfracture treatment in some subgroups of women. These results suggest that the local availability of the bone density testing service led to an increase in objective test-guided therapy with some reduction in the use of empiric and preventive strategies and had a neutral effect on overall use of these agents.