Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 response required the cancellation of all but the most urgent surgical procedures. The number of cancelled surgical procedures owing to Covid-19, and the reintroduction of surgical acivirt, was modelled. METHODS: This was a modelling study using Hospital Episode Statistics data (2014-2019). Surgical procedures were grouped into four urgency classes. Expected numbers of surgical procedures performed between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021 were modelled. Procedure deficit was estimated using conservative assumptions and the gradual reintroduction of elective surgery from the 1 June 2020. Costs were calculated using NHS reference costs and are reported as millions or billions of euros. Estimates are reported with 95 per cent confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 4 547 534 (95 per cent c.i. 3 318 195 to 6 250 771) patients with a pooled mean age of 53.5 years were expected to undergo surgery between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021. By 31 May 2020, 749 247 (513 564 to 1 077 448) surgical procedures had been cancelled. Assuming that elective surgery is reintroduced gradually, 2 328 193 (1 483 834 - 3 450 043) patients will be awaiting surgery by 28 February 2021. The cost of delayed procedures is €5.3 (3.1 to 8.0) billion. Safe delivery of surgery during the pandemic will require substantial extra resources costing €526.8 (449.3 to 633.9) million. CONCLUSION: As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, provision of elective surgery will be delayed and associated with increased healthcare costs.

Mortality after surgery with SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: a population-wide epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has heavily impacted elective and emergency surgery around the world. We aimed to confirm the incidence of perioperative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and associated mortality after surgery. METHODS: Analysis of routine electronic health record data from NHS hospitals in England. We extracted data from Hospital Episode Statistics in England describing adult patients undergoing surgery between January 1, 2020 and February 28, 2021. The exposure was SARS-CoV-2 infection defined by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The primary outcome measure was 90 day in-hospital mortality. Data were analysed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Index of Multiple Deprivation, presence of cancer, surgical procedure type and admission acuity. Results are presented as n (%) and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We identified 2 666 978 patients undergoing surgery of whom 28 777 (1.1%) had SARS-CoV-2 infection. In total, 26 364 (1.0%) patients died in hospital. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with a much greater risk of death (SARS-CoV-2: 6153/28 777 [21.4%] vs no SARS-CoV-2: 20 211/2 638 201 [0.8%]; OR=5.7 [95% CI, 5.5-5.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing elective surgery, 2412/1 857 586 (0.1%) had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 172/2412 (7.1%) died, compared with 1414/1 857 586 (0.1%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=25.8 [95% CI, 21.7-30.9]; P<0.001). Amongst patients undergoing emergency surgery, 22 918/582 292 (3.9%) patients had SARS-CoV-2, of whom 5752/22 918 (25.1%) died, compared with 18 060/559 374 (3.4%) patients without SARS-CoV-2 (OR=5.5 [95% CI, 5.3-5.7]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The low incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHS surgical pathways suggests current infection prevention and control policies are highly effective. However, the high mortality amongst patients with SARS-CoV-2 suggests these precautions cannot be safely relaxed.

Age of patients undergoing surgery.

BACKGROUND: Advancing age is independently associated with poor postoperative outcomes. The ageing of the general population is a major concern for healthcare providers. Trends in age were studied among patients undergoing surgery in the National Health Service in England. METHODS: Time trend ecological analysis was undertaken of Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics data for England from 1999 to 2015. The proportion of patients undergoing surgery in different age groupings, their pooled mean age, and change in age profile over time were calculated. Growth in the surgical population was estimated, with associated costs, to the year 2030 by use of linear regression modelling. RESULTS: Some 68 205 695 surgical patient episodes (31 220 341 men, 45·8 per cent) were identified. The mean duration of hospital stay was 5·3 days. The surgical population was older than the general population of England; this gap increased over time (1999: 47·5 versus 38·3 years; 2015: 54·2 versus 39·7 years). The number of people aged 75 years or more undergoing surgery increased from 544 998 (14·9 per cent of that age group) in 1999 to 1 012 517 (22·9 per cent) in 2015. By 2030, it is estimated that one-fifth of the 75 years and older age category will undergo surgery each year (1·49 (95 per cent c.i. 1·43 to 1·55) million people), at a cost of €3·2 (3·1 to 3·5) billion. CONCLUSION: The population having surgery in England is ageing at a faster rate than the general population. Healthcare policies must adapt to ensure that provision of surgical treatments remains safe and sustainable.

Preoperative systemic inflammation and perioperative myocardial injury: prospective observational multicentre cohort study of patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammation is pivotal in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. As inflammation can directly cause cardiomyocyte injury, we hypothesised that established systemic inflammation, as reflected by elevated preoperative neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >4, predisposes patients to perioperative myocardial injury. METHODS: We prospectively recruited 1652 patients aged ≥45 yr who underwent non-cardiac surgery in two UK centres. Serum high sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) concentrations were measured on the first three postoperative days. Clinicians and investigators were blinded to the troponin results. The primary outcome was perioperative myocardial injury, defined as hsTnT≥14 ng L-1 within 3 days after surgery. We assessed whether myocardial injury was associated with preoperative NLR>4, activated reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation in circulating monocytes, or both. Multivariable logistic regression analysis explored associations between age, sex, NLR, Revised Cardiac Risk Index, individual leukocyte subsets, and myocardial injury. Flow cytometric quantification of ROS was done in 21 patients. Data are presented as n (%) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Preoperative NLR>4 was present in 239/1652 (14.5%) patients. Myocardial injury occurred in 405/1652 (24.5%) patients and was more common in patients with preoperative NLR>4 [OR: 2.56 (1.92-3.41); P<0.0001]. Myocardial injury was independently associated with lower absolute preoperative lymphocyte count [OR 1.80 (1.50-2.17); P<0.0001] and higher absolute preoperative monocyte count [OR 1.93 (1.12-3.30); P=0.017]. Monocyte ROS generation correlated with NLR (r=0.47; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative NLR>4 is associated with perioperative myocardial injury, independent of conventional risk factors. Systemic inflammation may contribute to the development of perioperative myocardial injury. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01842568.

The surgical safety checklist and patient outcomes after surgery: a prospective observational cohort study, systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The surgical safety checklist is widely used to improve the quality of perioperative care. However, clinicians continue to debate the clinical effectiveness of this tool. METHODS: Prospective analysis of data from the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), an international observational study of elective in-patient surgery, accompanied by a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature. The exposure was surgical safety checklist use. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and the secondary outcome was postoperative complications. In the ISOS cohort, a multivariable multi-level generalized linear model was used to test associations. To further contextualise these findings, we included the results from the ISOS cohort in a meta-analysis. Results are reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We included 44 814 patients from 497 hospitals in 27 countries in the ISOS analysis. There were 40 245 (89.8%) patients exposed to the checklist, whilst 7508 (16.8%) sustained ≥1 postoperative complications and 207 (0.5%) died before hospital discharge. Checklist exposure was associated with reduced mortality [odds ratio (OR) 0.49 (0.32-0.77); P<0.01], but no difference in complication rates [OR 1.02 (0.88-1.19); P=0.75]. In a systematic review, we screened 3732 records and identified 11 eligible studies of 453 292 patients including the ISOS cohort. Checklist exposure was associated with both reduced postoperative mortality [OR 0.75 (0.62-0.92); P<0.01; I2=87%] and reduced complication rates [OR 0.73 (0.61-0.88); P<0.01; I2=89%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients exposed to a surgical safety checklist experience better postoperative outcomes, but this could simply reflect wider quality of care in hospitals where checklist use is routine.

Association of preoperative anaemia with postoperative morbidity and mortality: an observational cohort study in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is associated with poor postoperative outcomes, but few studies have described the impact of preoperative anaemia in low- and middle- (LMICs), and high-income countries (HICs). METHODS: This was a planned analysis of data collected during an international 7 day cohort study of adults undergoing elective inpatient surgery. The primary outcome was in-hospital death, and the secondary outcomes were in-hospital complications. Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin <12 g dl-1 for females and <13 g dl-1 for males. Hierarchical three-level mixed-effect logistic regression models were constructed to examine the associations between preoperative anaemia and outcomes. RESULTS: We included 38 770 patients from 474 hospitals in 27 countries of whom 11 675 (30.1%) were anaemic. Of these, 6886 (17.8%) patients suffered a complication and 198 (0.5%) died. Patients from LMICs were younger with lower ASA physical status scores, but a similar prevalence of anaemia [LMIC: 5072 (32.5%) of 15 585 vs HIC: 6603 (28.5%) of 23 185]. Patients with moderate [odds ratio (OR): 2.70; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.88-3.87] and severe anaemia (OR: 4.09; 95% CI: 1.90-8.81) were at an increased risk of death in both HIC and LMICs. Complication rates increased with the severity of anaemia. Compared with patients in LMICs, those in HICs experienced fewer complications after an interaction term analysis [LMIC (OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87-0.97) vs HIC (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.84-0.87); P<0.01]. CONCLUSIONS: One-third of patients undergoing elective surgery are anaemic. These patients have an increased risk of complications and death. The prevalence of anaemia is similar amongst patients in LMICs despite their younger age and lower risk profile. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN51817007.

A systematic review and consensus definitions for standardised end-points in perioperative medicine: pulmonary complications.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for robust, clearly defined, patient-relevant outcome measures for use in randomised trials in perioperative medicine. Our objective was to establish standard outcome measures for postoperative pulmonary complications research. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, Web of Science, SciELO, and the Korean Journal Database. Definitions were extracted from included manuscripts. We then conducted a three-stage Delphi consensus process to select the optimal outcome measures in terms of methodological quality and overall suitability for perioperative trials. RESULTS: From 2358 records, the full texts of 81 manuscripts were retrieved, of which 45 met the inclusion criteria. We identified three main categories of outcome measure specific to perioperative pulmonary outcomes: (i) composite outcome measures of multiple pulmonary outcomes (27 definitions); (ii) pneumonia (12 definitions); and (iii) respiratory failure (six definitions). These were rated by the group according to suitability for routine use. The majority of definitions were given a low score, and many were imprecise, difficult to apply consistently, or both, in large patient populations. A small number of highly rated definitions were identified as appropriate for widespread use. The group then recommended four outcome measures for future use, including one new definition. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of postoperative pulmonary outcome measures have been used, but most are poorly defined. Our four recommended outcome measures include a new definition of postoperative pulmonary complications, incorporating an assessment of severity. These definitions will meet the needs of most clinical effectiveness trials of treatments to improve postoperative pulmonary outcomes.

Frequency of surgical treatment and related hospital procedures in the UK: a national ecological study using hospital episode statistics.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence of high activity, the number of surgical procedures performed in UK hospitals, their cost and subsequent mortality remain unclear. METHODS: Time-trend ecological study using hospital episode data from England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The primary outcome was the number of in-hospital procedures, grouped using three increasingly specific categories of surgery. Secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, length of hospital stay and healthcare costs according to standard National Health Service tariffs. RESULTS: Between April 1, 2009 and March 31, 2014, 39 631 801 surgical patient episodes were recorded. There was an annual average of 7 926 360 procedures (inclusive category), 5 104 165 procedures (intermediate category) and 1 526 421 procedures (restrictive category). This equates to 12 537, 8073 and 2414 procedures per 100 000 population per year, respectively. On average there were 85 181 deaths (1.1%) within 30 days of a procedure each year, rising to 178 040 deaths (2.3%) after 90 days. Approximately 62.8% of all procedures were day cases. Median length of stay for in-patient procedures was 1.7 (1.3-2.0) days. The total cost of surgery over the 5 yr period was £54.6 billion ($104.4 billion), representing an average annual cost of £10.9 billion (inclusive), £9.5 billion (intermediate) and £5.6 billion (restrictive). For each category, the number of procedures increased each year, while mortality decreased. One-third of all mortalities in national death registers occurred within 90 days of a procedure (inclusive category). CONCLUSIONS: The number of surgical procedures in the UK varies widely according to definition. The number of procedures is slowly increasing whilst the number of deaths is decreasing.

Systematic review of the methodological and reporting quality of case series in surgery.

BACKGROUND: Case series are an important and common study type. No guideline exists for reporting case series and there is evidence of key data being missed from such reports. The first step in the process of developing a methodologically sound reporting guideline is a systematic review of literature relevant to the reporting deficiencies of case series. METHODS: A systematic review of methodological and reporting quality in surgical case series was performed. The electronic search strategy was developed by an information specialist and included MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Methods Register, Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings Citation index, from the start of indexing to 5 November 2014. Independent screening, eligibility assessments and data extraction were performed. Included articles were then analysed for five areas of deficiency: failure to use standardized definitions, missing or selective data (including the omission of whole cases or important variables), transparency or incomplete reporting, whether alternative study designs were considered, and other issues. RESULTS: Database searching identified 2205 records. Through the process of screening and eligibility assessments, 92 articles met inclusion criteria. Frequencies of methodological and reporting issues identified were: failure to use standardized definitions (57 per cent), missing or selective data (66 per cent), transparency or incomplete reporting (70 per cent), whether alternative study designs were considered (11 per cent) and other issues (52 per cent). CONCLUSION: The methodological and reporting quality of surgical case series needs improvement. The data indicate that evidence-based guidelines for the conduct and reporting of case series may be useful.

Meta-analysis of the association between preoperative anaemia and mortality after surgery.

BACKGROUND: Numerous published studies have explored associations between anaemia and adverse outcomes after surgery. However, there are no evidence syntheses describing the impact of preoperative anaemia on postoperative outcomes. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies exploring associations between preoperative anaemia and postoperative outcomes was performed. Studies investigating trauma, burns, transplant, paediatric and obstetric populations were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day or in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were acute kidney injury, stroke and myocardial infarction. Predefined analyses were performed for the cardiac and non-cardiac surgery subgroups. A post hoc analysis was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between anaemia and infection. Data are presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95 per cent c.i. RESULTS: From 8973 records, 24 eligible studies including 949 445 patients were identified. Some 371 594 patients (39·1 per cent) were anaemic. Anaemia was associated with increased mortality (OR 2·90, 2·30 to 3·68; I(2) = 97 per cent; P < 0·001), acute kidney injury (OR 3·75, 2·95 to 4·76; I(2) = 60 per cent; P < 0·001) and infection (OR 1·93, 1·17 to 3·18; I(2) = 99 per cent; P = 0·01). Among cardiac surgical patients, anaemia was associated with stroke (OR 1·28, 1·06 to 1·55; I(2) = 0 per cent; P = 0·009) but not myocardial infarction (OR 1·11, 0·68 to 1·82; I(2) = 13 per cent; P = 0·67). Anaemia was associated with an increased incidence of red cell transfusion (OR 5·04, 4·12 to 6·17; I(2) = 96 per cent; P < 0·001). Similar findings were observed in the cardiac and non-cardiac subgroups. CONCLUSION: Preoperative anaemia is associated with poor outcomes after surgery, although heterogeneity between studies was significant. It remains unclear whether anaemia is an independent risk factor for poor outcome or simply a marker of underlying chronic disease. However, red cell transfusion is much more frequent amongst anaemic patients.

Dental Surgical Activity in Hospitals during COVID-19: A Nationwide Observational Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: The number of surgical extractions performed in hospitals in England remains unclear. This study reports the volume of surgical extractions conducted in hospitals and change in activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide observational cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England for patients undergoing surgical removal of a tooth (defined using OPSC-4 code F09) between April 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020. Procedures were stratified by age, gender, and urgency (elective or nonelective), reported using descriptive statistics, number, and percentage. We conducted post hoc modeling to predict surgical activity to December 2023. In addition, we contrasted this with aggregate national data on simple dental extraction procedures and drainage of dental abscesses in hospital as well as dental activity in general practice. RESULTS: We identified a total of 569,938 episodes for the surgical removal of a tooth (females 57%). Of these, 493,056/569,938 (87%) were for adults and 76,882/569,938 (13%) children ≤18 years. Surgical extractions were most frequent in adult females. Elective cases accounted for 96% (n = 548,805/569,938) of procedures. The median number of procedures carried out per quarter was 27,256, dropping to 12,003 during the COVID-19 pandemic, representing a 56% reduction in activity. This amounted to around 61,058 cancelled procedures. Modeling predicts that this activity has not returned to prepandemic levels. CONCLUSIONS: The number of surgical extractions taking place in hospitals during the pandemic fell by 56%. The true impact of this reduction is unknown, but delayed treatment increases the risk of complications, including life-threatening infections. KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT: The result of this study provides an evidence-based overview of the trends relating to surgical extractions of teeth in England taking place in hospitals. This information can be used to inform service and workforce planning to meet the needs of patients requiring surgical extractions. The data also provide an insight into the oral health needs of the population in England.

Health Resource Utilisation and Disparities: an Ecological Study of Admission Patterns Across Ethnicity in England Between 2017 and 2020.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted adverse outcomes in Asian, Black, and ethnic minority groups. More research is required to explore underlying ethnic health inequalities. In this study, we aim to examine pre-COVID ethnic inequalities more generally through healthcare utilisation to contextualise underlying inequalities that were present before the pandemic. DESIGN: This was an ecological study exploring all admissions to NHS hospitals in England from 2017 to 2020. METHODS: The primary outcomes were admission rates within ethnic groups. Secondary outcomes included age-specific and age-standardised admission rates. Sub-analysis of admission rates across an index of multiple deprivation (IMD) deciles was also performed to contextualise the impact of socioeconomic differences amongst ethnic categories. Results were presented as a relative ratio (RR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Age-standardised admission rates were higher in Asian (RR 1.40 [1.38-1.41] in 2019) and Black (RR 1.37 [1.37-1.38]) and lower in Mixed groups (RR 0.91 [0.90-0.91]) relative to White. There was significant missingness or misassignment of ethnicity in NHS admissions: with 11.7% of admissions having an unknown/not-stated ethnicity assignment and 'other' ethnicity being significantly over-represented. Admission rates did not mirror the degree of deprivation across all ethnic categories. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows Black and Asian ethnic groups have higher admission rates compared to White across all age groups and when standardised for age. There is evidence of incomplete and misidentification of ethnicity assignment in NHS admission records, which may introduce bias to work on these datasets. Differences in admission rates across individual ethnic categories cannot solely be explained by socioeconomic status. Further work is needed to identify ethnicity-specific factors of these inequalities to allow targeted interventions at the local level.

Prevention of hemolysis in rapidly frozen erythrocytes by using a laser pulse.

This paper reports on the successful recovery of rapidly frozen unprotected erythrocytes by vitrification of the intracellular solution with a laser pulse prior to thawing. Erythrocytes that were frozen at 10,000 degrees C/min exhibited 100% hemolysis when thawed unless they were first irradiated by a 7 ns. laser pulse that selectively targeted the intracellular ice so that it was melted and resolidified into a glass phase. Up to 80% of the cells treated in this way remained intact after thawing. Wright's staining confirmed a healthy cell morphology and the retention of hemoglobin in the laser treated cells. While it is well known that small amounts of intracellular ice can be tolerated by cells, the findings of this study are the first to indicate that intracellular ice may be innocuous even when formed in substantial quantities provided that crystal growth and coalescence can somehow be avoided during warming.

Selective photothermolysis in skin by using subcutaneous optical fibers.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Vascular selective photothermolysis has been shown to be effective in treating hypertrophic scars. Performing selective photothermolysis on the vasculature deep within thick scars requires new methods for delivering laser energy. It is the objective of this study to model the use of subcutaneous fiber optics to perform selective photothermolysis in skin as a possible aid in the treatment of thick scars. STUDY DESIGN/MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to study the expected region of vascular necrosis in a two layer skin model when 585-nm radiation is delivered into the dermis by means of subcutaneous optical fibers. RESULTS: The extent of vascular necrosis is independent of fiber diameter for a fixed total energy. A fiber penetrating barely below the epidermis decreases the maximum epidermal fluence by more than an order of magnitude relative to a superficial beam. Using four fibers simultaneously can significantly increase the depth of vascular necrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Small diameter fibers are optimum if the maximum fluence tolerable in the dermis is not a limiting factor. Shallowly inserted fibers can significantly decrease epidermal damage to dark-skinned patients undergoing laser therapy.

Propagation of focused and multibeam laser energy in biological tissue.

The results of a Monte Carlo simulation of laser beam propagation in turbid media are presented. The study was performed to determine whether using a focused beam or multiple beams instead of a single collimated beam could improve subsurface laser energy delivery in biological tissue. A parametric study was carried out to determine both the laser fluence at a target depth and the ratio of fluence at the target over surface fluence as a function of tissue properties and the mode of energy delivery. It was found that the reduced scattering coefficient was the primary determinant as to whether multibeam or focused beam delivery could be effective. A focused beam was found to be extremely effective in increasing fluence at the target if the dimensionless reduced scattering coefficient was less than 2. The delivered fluence, however, was found to be extremely sensitive to tissue properties. A five-beam laser system was found to be less effective at increasing fluence at the target than a focused beam; but the fluence delivered by a five-beam system was far less sensitive to tissue properties, thereby making accurate dosimetry more feasible.

Recruitment and the structure of assemblages of fish on coral reefs.

Much recent research has focused on the question of the high species richness and population densities of fish inhabiting coral reefs. Both density-dependent (post-recruitment) and density-independent (pre-recruitment) processes have been implicated in the regulation of these assemblages. These processes may operate at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Here we review recent progress and point to some of the key questions for future research.