How the COVID-19 pandemic signaled the demise of Antarctic exceptionalism.

This paper explores how the COVID-19 pandemic affected science and tourism activities and their governance in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. The pandemic reduced the ability of Antarctic Treaty Parties to make decisions on policy issues and placed a considerable burden on researchers. Tourism was effectively suspended during the 2020-2021 Antarctic season and heavily reduced in 2021-2022 but rebounded to record levels in 2022-2023. The pandemic stimulated reflection on practices to facilitate dialog, especially through online events. Opportunities arose to integrate innovations developed during the pandemic more permanently into Antarctic practices, in relation to open science, reducing operational greenhouse gas footprints and barriers of access to Antarctic research and facilitating data sharing. However, as well as the long-term impacts arising directly from the pandemic, an assemblage of major geopolitical drivers are also in play and, combined, these signal a considerable weakening of Antarctic exceptionalism in the early Anthropocene.

"We have been warned"-preparing now to prevent the next pandemic.

'COVID-19: Make it the Last Pandemic' is the aspirational title of the recently released report by the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response. This panel, co-chaired by Helen Clark and Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, was convened in mid-2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to assess the global handling of COVID-19.

Coronavirus at the end of the world: Antarctica matters.

The potential impact of coronavirus in Antarctica through tourism and scientific research as well as the Antarctic Treaty System is reviewed over three time periods. In the short term, to April 2021, Antarctic tourism and field-based research will be severely reduced. The impact on Antarctic governance means that few, if any, international meetings will take place thereby leaving discussions on issues, such as fishing quotas, uncertain. Looking to the medium term, to April 2024, polar tourism is unlikely to have recovered and may face collapse unless alternatives are developed. Scientific research, organised through National Antarctic Programs could be reduced due to the economics of a global recession. Moving to a long-term view of six years or so, in terms of scientific activity, this will be highly dependent on the role and status of science in society following the pandemic and the extent to which science funding gets drawn into the economics of the recession. It is unlikely that cruise tourism will have regained its previous volumes though fishing, especially if food security becomes a major issue, is likely to increase pressure on environmental management mechanisms. Both these aspects will continue to put demands on the Antarctic Treaty System and its ability to respond to a fast changing global situation. In this latter sense, it could provide valuable lessons, and also learn from, for other global agreements such as climate change and biodiversity.

Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making.

This paper reviews the latest research on scenarios including the processes and products for socio-environmental systems (SES) analysis, modeling and decision making. A group of scenario researchers and practitioners participated in a workshop to discuss consolidation of existing research on the development and use of scenario analysis in exploring and understanding the interplay between human and environmental systems. This paper presents an extended overview of the workshop discussions and follow-up review work. It is structured around the essential challenges that are crucial to progress support of decision making and learning with respect to our highly uncertain socio-environmental futures. It identifies a practical research agenda where challenges are grouped according to the process stage at which they are most significant: before, during, and after the creation of the scenarios as products. These challenges for SES include: enhancing the role of stakeholder and public engagement in the co-development of scenarios, linking scenarios across multiple geographical, sectoral and temporal scales, improving the links between the qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenario analysis, addressing uncertainties especially surprise, addressing scenario diversity and their consistency together, communicating scenarios including visualization methods, and linking scenarios to decision making.