The normal relationship between fat and lean mass for mature (21-30 year old) physically fit men and women.

OBJECTIVE: Determine if relative body fat (%BF) remains a biological norm in physically active, non-obese American men and women and determine reference values for other components of body composition. METHODS: Participants (n = 174 men, 70 women) were physically fit U.S. Marine 2nd Lieutenants, in their third decade of physical maturity (age 21-30). Body composition was assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA); and body images were obtained by 3D body scans. RESULTS: For men and women, respectively, %BF averaged 16.2 ± 4.1 (median 15.3), 24.3 ± 4.5 (median 23.8); fat-free mass (FFM): 67.7 ± 7.2, 49.4 ± 5.3 kg; FFM index: 21.5 ± 1.8, 18.3 ± 1.6 kg/m2 ; and body mass index (BMI): 25.5 ± 1.9, 24.1 ± 2.2 kg/m2 . Bone mineral content (BMC) was 5% of FFM; total body water (TBW) was 70%-72% of FFM. Physique remained similar between median and higher percentiles of %BF. Only small changes in key measures were noted across the six-month training program. CONCLUSIONS: Mean %BF of healthy active men and women in 2021 remains very similar to the 15% and 25% posited in 1980, suggesting that relative body fat has a normal fat-lean relationship in physically mature humans. These data may bring new attention to sex-appropriate %BF.

Body surface area equations for physically active men and women.

OBJECTIVES: To improve predictive formulae for estimating body surface area (BSA) in healthy men and women using a modern three-dimensional scanner technology. METHODS: Body surface areas were obtained from a convenience sample of 1267 US Marines (464 women and 803 men) using a whole body surface scanner (Size Stream SS20). The reliability of SS20 measures of total and regional BSA within participants was compared across triplicate scans. We then derived a series of formulae to estimate SS20-measured BSA using various combinations of sex, height, and mass. We also assessed relationships between percent body fat measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry and sex-specific formulae errors in Marines. RESULTS: Body surface areas recorded by the SS20 were highly reliable whether measured for the total body or by region (ICC ≥ .962). Formulae estimates of BSA from sex, height, and mass were precise (root-mean-square deviation, 0.031 m2 ). Errors from the Marine Corps formulae were positively associated with percent body fat for men (p = .001) but not women (p = .843). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians, military leaders, and researchers can use the newly developed BSA formulae for precise estimates in healthy physically active men and women. Users should be aware that height- and mass-based BSA estimates are less accurate for individuals with extremely low or high percent body fat.

Military Body Composition Standards and Physical Performance: Historical Perspectives and Future Directions.

ABSTRACT: Harty, PS, Friedl, KE, Nindl, BC, Harry, JR, Vellers, HL, and Tinsley, GM. Military body composition standards and physical performance: historical perspectives and future directions. J Strength Cond Res 36(12): 3551-3561, 2022-US military physique and body composition standards have been formally used for more than 100 years. These metrics promote appropriate physical fitness, trim appearance, and long-term health habits in soldiers, although many specific aspects of these standards have evolved as evidence-based changes have emerged. Body composition variables have been shown to be related to many physical performance outcomes including aerobic capacity, muscular endurance, strength and power production, and specialized occupational tasks involving heavy lifting and load carriage. Although all these attributes are relevant, individuals seeking to improve military performance should consider emphasizing strength, hypertrophy, and power production as primary training goals, as these traits appear vital to success in the new Army Combat Fitness Test introduced in 2020. This fundamental change in physical training may require an adjustment in body composition standards and methods of measurement as physique changes in modern male and female soldiers. Current research in the field of digital anthropometry (i.e., 3-D body scanning) has the potential to dramatically improve performance prediction algorithms and potentially could be used to inform training interventions. Similarly, height-adjusted body composition metrics such as fat-free mass index might serve to identify normal weight personnel with inadequate muscle mass, allowing for effective targeted nutritional and training interventions. This review provides an overview of the origin and evolution of current US military body composition standards in relation to military physical readiness, summarizes current evidence relating body composition parameters to aspects of physical performance, and discusses issues relevant to the emerging modern male and female warrior.

Body mass does not reflect the body composition changes in response to similar physical training in young women and men.

INTRODUCTION: U.S. Army Basic Combat Training (BCT) prepares new recruits to meet soldier physical demands. It also serves as a model of physical changes in healthy young nonobese women and men during an intensive 10-week training program without diet restriction. In this prospective observational study, we quantified the changes in lean mass and body fat induced by BCT in a large sample of men and women undergoing the same physical training program. METHODS: Young women (n = 573) and men (n = 1071) meeting Army health and fitness recruitment standards volunteered to provide DXA-derived body composition data at the beginning and end of BCT. RESULTS: During BCT, there was no change in body mass in women and a 1.7-kg loss in men. Relative body fat (%BF) declined by an average of 4.0 ± 2.4 and 3.4 ± 2.8 percentage points (±SD) for women and men, respectively. The greatest predictor of change in %BF during BCT for both sexes was %BF at the beginning of training. Women and men gained an average 2.7 ± 1.6 kg and 1.7 ± 2.0 kg of lean mass during BCT. CONCLUSIONS: Army BCT produced significant effects on body composition despite minimal changes in total body mass. These findings demonstrate the ability of a 10-week sex-integrated physical training program to positively alter body composition profiles of young adults.

Detecting Parkinson's Disease from Wrist-Worn Accelerometry in the U.K. Biobank.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic movement disorder that produces a variety of characteristic movement abnormalities. The ubiquity of wrist-worn accelerometry suggests a possible sensor modality for early detection of PD symptoms and subsequent tracking of PD symptom severity. As an initial proof of concept for this technological approach, we analyzed the U.K. Biobank data set, consisting of one week of wrist-worn accelerometry from a population with a PD primary diagnosis and an age-matched healthy control population. Measures of movement dispersion were extracted from automatically segmented gait data, and measures of movement dimensionality were extracted from automatically segmented low-movement data. Using machine learning classifiers applied to one week of data, PD was detected with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69 on gait data, AUC = 0.84 on low-movement data, and AUC = 0.85 on a fusion of both activities. It was also found that classification accuracy steadily improved across the one-week data collection, suggesting that higher accuracy could be achievable from a longer data collection. These results suggest the viability of using a low-cost and easy-to-use activity sensor for detecting movement abnormalities due to PD and motivate further research on early PD detection and tracking of PD symptom severity.

Mathematical prediction of core body temperature from environment, activity, and clothing: The heat strain decision aid (HSDA).

Physiological models provide useful summaries of complex interrelated regulatory functions. These can often be reduced to simple input requirements and simple predictions for pragmatic applications. This paper demonstrates this modeling efficiency by tracing the development of one such simple model, the Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA), originally developed to address Army needs. The HSDA, which derives from the Givoni-Goldman equilibrium body core temperature prediction model, uses 16 inputs from four elements: individual characteristics, physical activity, clothing biophysics, and environmental conditions. These inputs are used to mathematically predict core temperature (Tc) rise over time and can estimate water turnover from sweat loss. Based on a history of military applications such as derivation of training and mission planning tools, we conclude that the HSDA model is a robust integration of physiological rules that can guide a variety of useful predictions. The HSDA model is limited to generalized predictions of thermal strain and does not provide individualized predictions that could be obtained from physiological sensor data-driven predictive models. This fully transparent physiological model should be improved and extended with new findings and new challenging scenarios.

U.S. Army Research on Pharmacological Enhancement of Soldier Performance: Stimulants, Anabolic Hormones, and Blood Doping.

The level playing field of competitive sports is an irrelevant concern in asymmetrical warfare. However, there is a common theme of pressure to use performance-enhancing drugs because athletic or military opponents may be using them to advantage. This interest is fueled by personal anecdotes, misconceptions, and myths, and decisions to use or not to use pharmacological interventions may ignore available scientific data. The U.S. Army has led research in this area, with an abundance of published data extending back to World War II. Behavioral effects have been a consistent concern. A key conclusion to be drawn from this research is that although there may be specialized applications for some of these interventions, the majority of soldiers will gain the greatest performance benefits from effective physical and mental training programs combined with good principles of rest and nutrition. Furthermore, the perceived need to improve human biology with drugs may be solving the wrong problem, trying to fit the human to the demands of poorly conceived tactics, tasks, and equipments instead of capitalizing on human capabilities.

Perspectives on Aerobic and Strength Influences on Military Physical Readiness: Report of an International Military Physiology Roundtable.

Physical fitness training of military recruits is an enduring focus of armies. This is important for safe and effective performance of general tasks that anyone may have to perform in a military setting as well as preparation for more specialized training in specific job specialties. Decades of studies on occupationally specific physical requirements have characterized the dual aerobic and strength demands of typical military tasks; however, scientifically founded strategies to prepare recruits with a good mix of these 2 physiologically opposing capabilities have not been well established. High levels of aerobic training can compromise resistance training gains and increase injury rates. Resistance training requires a greater commitment of time and resources as well as a greater understanding of the science to produce true strength gains that may be beneficial to military performance. These are critical issues for modern armies with increased demands for well-prepared soldiers and fewer injury losses. The actual physical requirements tied to metrics of success in military jobs are also under renewed examination as women are increasingly integrated into military jobs previously performed only by men. At the third International Congress on Soldiers' Physical Performance, a roundtable of 10 physiologists with military expertise presented comparative perspectives on aerobic and strength training. These topics included the physiological basis of training benefits, how to train effectively, how to measure training effectiveness, considerations for the integration of women, and the big perspective. Key discussion points centered on (a) the significance of findings from research on integrated training, (b) strategies for effective strength development, and

Lifestyle and health-related risk factors and risk of cognitive aging among older veterans.

Lifestyle and health-related factors are critical components of the risk for cognitive aging among veterans. Because dementia has a prolonged prodromal phase, understanding effects across the life course could help focus the timing and duration of prevention targets. This perspective may be especially relevant for veterans and health behaviors. Military service may promote development and maintenance of healthy lifestyle behaviors, but the period directly after active duty has ended could be an important transition stage and opportunity to address some important risk factors. Targeting multiple pathways in one intervention may maximize efficiency and benefits for veterans. A recent review of modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer's disease estimated that a 25% reduction of a combination of seven modifiable risk factors including diabetes, hypertension, obesity, depression, physical inactivity, smoking, and education/cognitive inactivity could prevent up to 3 million cases worldwide and 492,000 cases in the United States. Lifestyle interventions to address cardiovascular health in veterans may serve as useful models with both physical and cognitive activity components, dietary intervention, and vascular risk factor management. Although the evidence is accumulating for lifestyle and health-related risk factors as well as military risk factors, more studies are needed to characterize these factors in veterans and to examine the potential interactions between them.

Effects of traumatic brain injury and posttraumatic stress disorder on Alzheimer's disease in veterans, using the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

Both traumatic brain injury (TBI) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are common problems resulting from military service, and both have been associated with increased risk of cognitive decline and dementia resulting from Alzheimer's disease (AD) or other causes. This study aims to use imaging techniques and biomarker analysis to determine whether traumatic brain injury (TBI) and/or PTSD resulting from combat or other traumas increase the risk for AD and decrease cognitive reserve in Veteran subjects, after accounting for age. Using military and Department of Veterans Affairs records, 65 Vietnam War veterans with a history of moderate or severe TBI with or without PTSD, 65 with ongoing PTSD without TBI, and 65 control subjects are being enrolled in this study at 19 sites. The study aims to select subject groups that are comparable in age, gender, ethnicity, and education. Subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia are being excluded. However, a new study just beginning, and similar in size, will study subjects with TBI, subjects with PTSD, and control subjects with MCI. Baseline measurements of cognition, function, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers; magnetic resonance images (structural, diffusion tensor, and resting state blood-level oxygen dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging); and amyloid positron emission tomographic (PET) images with florbetapir are being obtained. One-year follow-up measurements will be collected for most of the baseline procedures, with the exception of the lumbar puncture, the PET imaging, and apolipoprotein E genotyping. To date, 19 subjects with TBI only, 46 with PTSD only, and 15 with TBI and PTSD have been recruited and referred to 13 clinics to undergo the study protocol. It is expected that cohorts will be fully recruited by October 2014. This study is a first step toward the design and statistical powering of an AD prevention trial using at-risk veterans as subjects, and provides the basis for a larger, more comprehensive study of dementia risk factors in veterans.

Foreword: U.S. Marine Gender Integration in Recruit Training.

The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act mandated that the Marine Corps not segregate recruit training by gender. This Military Medicine supplement details an independent academic study contracted by the Marine Corps Training and Education Command to inform the Marine Corps' future approaches to gender integration at recruit training. The authors conclude that with proper science-based training and an intentional approach to gender integration, the Marine Corps can bolster gender integration without losing its traditions, high standards, or warrior ethos in recruit training. A feasible path lies ahead to enhance the Corps' legacy of success. This special issue supports the Marine Corps Training and Education Command 2030 posture statement for leveraging science and technology for policy and doctrine to prepare and modernize the Marine Corps for the future operating environment.

Defining Overweight and Obesity by Percent Body Fat instead of Body Mass Index.

OBJECTIVE: Thresholds for overweight and obesity are currently defined by body mass index (BMI), a poor surrogate marker of actual adiposity (percent body fat, %BF). Practical modern technologies provide estimates of %BF but medical providers need outcome-based %BF thresholds to guide patients. This analysis determines %BF thresholds based on key obesity-related comorbidities, exhibited as metabolic syndrome (MetSyn). These limits were compared to existing BMI thresholds of overweight and obesity. DESIGN: Correlational analysis of data from cross sectional sampling of 16,918 adults (8,734 men and 8,184 women) from the US population, accessed by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) public use datasets. RESULTS: Individuals measured by BMI as overweight (BMI>25 kg/m2) and with obesity (BMI>30 kg/m2) included 5% and 35% of individuals with MetSyn, respectively. For men, there were no cases of MetSyn below 18%BF, %BF equivalence to "overweight" (i.e., 5% of MetSyn individuals) occurred at 25%BF, and "obesity" (i.e., 35% of MetSyn individuals) corresponded to 30%BF. For women, there were no cases of MetSyn below 30%BF, "overweight" occurred at 36%BF, and "obesity" corresponded to 42%BF. Comparison of BMI to %BF illustrates the wide range of variability in BMI prediction of %BF, highlighting the potential importance of using more direct measures of adiposity to manage obesity-related disease. CONCLUSIONS: Practical methods of body composition estimation can now replace the indirect BMI assessment for obesity management, using threshold values provided from this study. Clinically relevant "overweight" can be defined as 25 and 36% BF for men and women, respectively, and "obesity" is defined as 30 and 42% BF for men and women.

The 300 Marines: characterizing the US Marines with perfect scores on their physical and combat fitness tests.

Few US Marines earn perfect 300 scores on both their Physical Fitness Test (PFT) and Combat Fitness Test (CFT). The number 300 invokes the legendary 300 Spartans that fought at the Battle of Thermopylae, which inspired high physical fitness capabilities for elite ground forces ever since. Purpose: Determine distinguishing characteristics of the "300 Marines" (perfect PFT and CFT scores) that may provide insights into the physical and physiological requirements associated with this capability. These tests have been refined over time to reflect physical capabilities associated with Marine Corps basic rifleman performance. Materials and methods: Data were analyzed from US Marines, including 497 women (age, 29 ± 7 years; height 1.63 ± 0.07 m; body mass, 67.4 ± 8.4 kg) and 1,224 men (30 ± 8 years; 1.77 ± 0.07 m; 86.1 ± 11.1 kg). Marines were grouped by whether they earned perfect 300 scores on both the PFT and CFT (300 Marines) or not. We analyzed group differences in individual fitness test events and body composition (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry). Results: Only 2.5% (n = 43) of this sample earned perfect PFT and CFT scores (n = 21 women; n = 22 men). Compared to sex-matched peers, 300 Marines performed more pull-ups, with faster three-mile run, maneuver-under-fire, and movement-to-contact times (each p < 0.001); 300 Marines of both sexes had lower fat mass, body mass index, and percent body fat (each p < 0.001). The lower percent body fat was explained by greater lean mass (p = 0.041) but similar body mass (p = 0.085) in women, whereas men had similar lean mass (p = 0.618), but lower total body mass (p = 0.025). Conclusion: Marines earning perfect PFT and CFT scores are most distinguished from their peers by their maneuverability, suggesting speed and agility capabilities. While both sexes had considerably lower percent body fat than their peers, 300 Marine women were relatively more muscular while men were lighter.

Metabolic Costs of Walking with Weighted Vests.

INTRODUCTION: The US Army Load Carriage Decision Aid (LCDA) metabolic model is used by militaries across the globe and is intended to predict physiological responses, specifically metabolic costs, in a wide range of dismounted warfighter operations. However, the LCDA has yet to be adapted for vest-borne load carriage, which is commonplace in tactical populations, and differs in energetic costs to backpacking and other forms of load carriage. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a metabolic model term that accurately estimates the effect of weighted vest loads on standing and walking metabolic rate for military mission-planning and general applications. METHODS: Twenty healthy, physically active military-age adults (4 women, 16 men; age, 26 ± 8 yr old; height, 1.74 ± 0.09 m; body mass, 81 ± 16 kg) walked for 6 to 21 min with four levels of weighted vest loading (0 to 66% body mass) at up to 11 treadmill speeds (0.45 to 1.97 m·s -1 ). Using indirect calorimetry measurements, we derived a new model term for estimating metabolic rate when carrying vest-borne loads. Model estimates were evaluated internally by k -fold cross-validation and externally against 12 reference datasets (264 total participants). We tested if the 90% confidence interval of the mean paired difference was within equivalence limits equal to 10% of the measured walking metabolic rate. Estimation accuracy, precision, and level of agreement were also evaluated by the bias, standard deviation of paired differences, and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), respectively. RESULTS: Metabolic rate estimates using the new weighted vest term were statistically equivalent ( P < 0.01) to measured values in the current study (bias, -0.01 ± 0.54 W·kg -1 ; CCC, 0.973) as well as from the 12 reference datasets (bias, -0.16 ± 0.59 W·kg -1 ; CCC, 0.963). CONCLUSIONS: The updated LCDA metabolic model calculates accurate predictions of metabolic rate when carrying heavy backpack and vest-borne loads. Tactical populations and recreational athletes that train with weighted vests can confidently use the simplified LCDA metabolic calculator provided as Supplemental Digital Content to estimate metabolic rates for work/rest guidance, training periodization, and nutritional interventions.

Allostatic Load Is Associated with Overuse Musculoskeletal Injury during US Marine Corps Officer Candidates School.

INTRODUCTION: Overuse musculoskeletal injuries (MSKIs) remain a significant medical challenge in military personnel undergoing military training courses; a further understanding of the biological process leading to overuse MSKI development and biological signatures for injury risk are warranted. The purpose of this study was to determine the association between overuse MSKI occurrence and physiological characteristics of allostatic load (AL) characterized as maladaptive biological responses to chronic stress measured by wearable devices in US Marine Corps officer candidates during a 10-week training course. METHODS: Devices recorded energy expenditure (EE), daytime heart rate (HR), sleeping HR, and sleep architecture (time and percent of deep, light, REM sleep, awake time, total sleep). Flux was calculated as the raw or absolute difference in the average value for that day or night and the day or night beforehand. Linear mixed-effect model analysis accounting for cardiorespiratory fitness assessed the association between overuse MSKI occurrence and device metrics (α = 0.05). RESULTS: Sixty-nine participants (23 females) were included. Twenty-one participants (eight females) sustained an overuse MSKI. Overuse MSKI occurrence in male participants was positively associated with daytime HR (ß = 5.316, p = 0.008), sleeping HR (ß = 2.708, p = 0.032), relative EE (ß = 8.968, p = 0.001), absolute flux in relative EE (ß = 2.994, p = 0.002), absolute EE (ß = 626.830, p = 0.001), and absolute flux in absolute EE (ß = 204.062, p = 0.004). Overuse MSKI occurrence in female participants was positively associated with relative EE (ß = 5.955, p = 0.026), deep sleep time (ß = 0.664, p < 0.001), %deep sleep (ß = 12.564, p < 0.001) and negatively associated with absolute flux in sleeping HR (ß = -0.660, p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Overuse MSKI occurrences were associated with physiological characteristics of AL including chronically elevated HR and EE and greater time in restorative sleep stages, which may serve as biological signatures for overuse MSKI risk.

Military risk factors for Alzheimer's disease.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are signature injuries of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and have been linked to an increased risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias. A meeting hosted by the Alzheimer's Association and the Veterans' Health Research Institute (NCIRE) in May 2012 brought together experts from the U.S. military and academic medical centers around the world to discuss current evidence and hypotheses regarding the pathophysiological mechanisms linking TBI, PTSD, and AD. Studies underway in civilian and military populations were highlighted, along with new research initiatives such as a study to extend the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) to a population of veterans exposed to TBI and PTSD. Greater collaboration and data sharing among diverse research groups is needed to advance an understanding and appropriate interventions in this continuum of military injuries and neurodegenerative disease in the aging veteran.

With life there is motion. Activity biomarkers signal important health and performance outcomes.

Measures of human motion provide a rich source of health and physiological status information. This paper provides examples of motion-based biomarkers in the form of patterns of movement, quantified physical activity, and characteristic gaits that can now be assessed with practical measurement technologies and rapidly evolving physiological models and algorithms, with research advances fed by the increasing access to motion data and associated contextual information. Quantification of physical activity has progressed from step counts to good estimates of energy expenditure, useful to weight management and to activity-based health outcomes. Activity types and intensity durations are important to health outcomes and can be accurately classified even from carried smart phone data. Specific gaits may predict injury risk, including some re-trainable injurious running or modifiable load carriage gaits. Mood status is reflected in specific types of human movement, with slumped posture and shuffling gait signaling depression. Increased variability in body sway combined with contextual information may signify heat strain, physical fatigue associated with heavy load carriage, or specific neuropsychological conditions. Movement disorders might be identified earlier and chronic diseases such as Parkinson's can be better medically managed with automatically quantified information from wearable systems. Increased path tortuosity suggests head injury and dementia. Rapidly emerging wear-and-forget systems involving global positioning system and inertial navigation, triaxial accelerometry, smart shoes, and functional fiber-based clothing are making it easier to make important health and performance outcome associations, and further refine predictive models and algorithms that will improve quality of life, protect health, and enhance performance.

Human performance and medical treatment during cold weather operations - synthesis of a symposium.

In October 2022, the Human Factors and Medicine (HFM) panel of the NATO Science and Technology Organization convened a review of progress in military biomedical research for cold weather operations. This paper represents a summary of the research presentations and future directions. The importance of realistic training was an overarching theme. Many reported studies took advantage of cold weather training exercises to monitor soldiers' health and performance; these are valuable data, using winter exercises as a platform to gain further knowledge regarding human performance in the cold and represent an excellent extension of controlled laboratory studies. Topics also included prevention of Cold Weather Injuries (CWI); effects of cold weather stressors on cognitive function; field treatment of freezing cold injuries (FCI); and new consideration to injury and trauma care in the cold. Future work programmes re-emphasise development of cold weather training and establishment of consensus diagnostic criteria and treatments for FCI and non-FCI. CWI prevention should take advantage of biomathematical models that predict risk of CWI and provide guidance regarding optimal clothing and equipment and move from group averages to personalised predictions. The publication of selected presentations from the symposium in this special issue increases attention to military cold weather research.

Use case for predictive physiological models: tactical insights about frozen Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

Biomathematical models quantitatively describe human physiological responses to environmental and operational stressors and have been used for planning and real-time prevention of cold injury. These same models can be applied from a military tactical perspective to gain valuable insights into the health status of opponent soldiers. This paper describes a use case for predicting physiological status of Russian soldiers invading Ukraine using open-source information. In March 2022, media outlets reported Russian soldiers in a stalled convoy invading Ukraine were at serious risk of hypothermia and predicted these soldiers would be "freezing to death" within days because of declining temperatures (down to -20°C). Using existing Army models, clothing data and open-source intelligence, modelling and analyses were conducted within hours to quantitatively assess the conditions and provide science-based predictions. These predictions projected a significant increase in risks of frostbite for exposed skin and toes and feet, with a very low (negligible) risk of hypothermia. Several days later, media outlets confirmed these predictions, reporting a steep rise in evacuations for foot frostbite injuries in these Russian forces. This demonstrated what can be done today with the existing mathematical physiology and how models traditionally focused on health risk can be used for tactical intelligence.