Real-World Healthcare Cost Savings and Reduced Relapse Rate with Off-Label Rituximab versus Disease-Modifying Treatments Approved for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: A Nationwide Cost-Effectiveness Study.

OBJECTIVE: Although off-label use of rituximab is a common alternative to disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) approved for multiple sclerosis (MS) in several countries, the impact of this on treatment cost-effectiveness is not well known. METHODS: We evaluated the relative cost-effectiveness of rituximab and MS-approved DMTs in a register-based cohort study of Swedish residents with relapsing-remitting MS, aged 18-65 years, starting treatment with rituximab, natalizumab, fingolimod, or dimethyl fumarate between January 2010 and July 2016, and followed through July 2021 (n = 5,924). By linking the population-based Swedish MS register to several Swedish health care and demographic registers, we estimated health care costs in relation to number of relapses, over 5 years from treatment start. Differences between treatments were estimated in inverse probability of treatment-weighted regression models, adjusting for a broad range of potential confounders covering demographics, medical history, and MS-related clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Off-label rituximab was associated with both lower total health care costs (mean cost savings ranged $35,000-$66,000 vs. each approved DMT), and fewer relapses (mean number of prevented relapses ranged 0.12-0.22), per started therapy over 5 years. Results were robust to variations in discounting and pricing of health care visits, with the main driver of cost-savings being the price of the index drug itself. INTERPRETATION: The cost-effectiveness of rituximab dominated the MS-approved alternatives. Off-label, low-dose rituximab should be considered for persons with MS and could reduce barriers to treatment, especially in resource-limited settings. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:1099-1111.

COMBAT-MS: A Population-Based Observational Cohort Study Addressing the Benefit-Risk Balance of Multiple Sclerosis Therapies Compared with Rituximab.

OBJECTIVE: To assess comparative effectiveness, safety, and tolerability of off-label rituximab, compared with frequently used therapies approved for multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: A Swedish cohort study of persons with relapsing-remitting MS, age 18 to 75 years at inclusion and with a first therapy start or a first therapy switch between 2011 and 2018. Low-dose rituximab was compared with MS-approved therapies. Primary outcomes were proportions with 12 months confirmed disability worsening and change in MS Impact Scale-29 (MSIS-29) scores, respectively. Secondary endpoints included relapses, therapy discontinuation, and serious adverse events. Analyses used an intention-to-treat approach and were adjusted for demographics, MS features, and health characteristics. RESULTS: We included 2,449 participants as first therapy start and 2,463 as first therapy switch. Proportions with disability worsening at 3 years were 9.1% for rituximab as first therapy and 5.1% after therapy switch, with no differences to MS-approved comparators. Worsening on rituximab was mostly independent of relapses. MSIS-29 with rituximab at 3 years improved by 1.3/8.4 points (physical/psychological) for first disease-modifying therapy (DMT) and 0.4/3.6 for DMT switch, and was mostly similar across therapies. Rituximab had lower relapse rates and higher therapy persistence in both groups. The rate of hospital-treated infections was higher with rituximab after a therapy switch, but not as a first therapy. INTERPRETATION: This population-based real-world cohort study found low rates of disability progression, mostly independent of relapses, and without significant differences between rituximab and MS-approved comparators. Rituximab led to lower rates of inflammatory activity and higher treatment persistence, but was associated with an increased rate of serious infections. ANN NEUROL 2024.

Abatacept and non-melanoma skin cancer in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a comprehensive evaluation of randomised controlled trials and observational studies.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to evaluate non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) risk associated with abatacept treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: This evaluation included 16 abatacept RA clinical trials and 6 observational studies. NMSC incidence rates (IRs)/1000 patient-years (p-y) of exposure were compared between patients treated with abatacept versus placebo, conventional synthetic (cs) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and other biological/targeted synthetic (b/ts)DMARDs. For observational studies, a random-effects model was used to pool rate ratios (RRs). RESULTS: ~49 000 patients receiving abatacept were analysed from clinical trials (~7000) and observational studies (~42 000). In randomised trials (n=4138; median abatacept exposure, 12 (range 2-30) months), NMSC IRs (95% CIs) were not significantly different for abatacept (6.0 (3.3 to 10.0)) and placebo (4.0 (1.3 to 9.3)) and remained stable throughout the long-term, open-label period (median cumulative exposure, 28 (range 2-130 months); 21 335 p-y of exposure (7044 patients over 3 years)). For registry databases, NMSC IRs/1000 p-y were 5-12 (abatacept), 1.6-10 (csDMARDs) and 3-8 (other b/tsDMARDs). Claims database IRs were 19-22 (abatacept), 15-18 (csDMARDs) and 14-17 (other b/tsDMARDs). Pooled RRs (95% CIs) from observational studies for NMSC in patients receiving abatacept were 1.84 (1.00 to 3.37) vs csDMARDs and 1.11 (0.98 to 1.26) vs other b/tsDMARDs. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with the warnings and precautions of the abatacept label, this analysis suggests a potential increase in NMSC risk with abatacept use compared with csDMARDs. No significant increase was observed compared with b/tsDMARDs, but the lower limit of the 95% CI was close to unity.

Impact of previous treatment history and B-cell depletion treatment duration on infection risk in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: B-cell depletion displays striking effectiveness in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), but is also associated with increased infection risk. To what degree previous treatment history, disease-modifying therapy (DMT) switching pattern and time on treatment modulate this risk is unknown. The objective here was to evaluate previous DMT use and treatment duration as predictors of infection risk with B-cell depletion. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide RRMS cohort study leveraging data from the Swedish MS registry and national demographic and health registries recording all outpatient-treated and inpatient-treated infections and antibiotics prescriptions from 1 January 2012 to 30 June 2021. The risk of infection during treatment was compared by DMT, treatment duration, number and type of prior treatment and adjusted for a number of covariates. RESULTS: Among 4694 patients with RRMS on B-cell depletion (rituximab), 6049 on other DMTs and 20 308 age-sex matched population controls, we found higher incidence rates of inpatient-treated infections with DMTs other than rituximab used in first line (10.4; 95% CI 8.1 to 12.9, per 1000 person-years), being further increased with rituximab (22.7; 95% CI 18.5 to 27.5), compared with population controls (6.6; 95% CI 6.0 to 7.2). Similar patterns were seen for outpatient infections and antibiotics prescriptions. Infection rates on rituximab did not vary between first versus later line treatment, type of DMT before switch or exposure time. CONCLUSION: These findings underscore an important safety concern with B-cell depletion in RRMS, being evident also in individuals with shorter disease duration and no previous DMT exposure, in turn motivating the application of risk mitigation strategies.

Trajectories of self-reported fatigue following initiation of multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapy.

BACKGROUND: We analysed the COMparison Between All immunoTherapies for Multiple Sclerosis (NCT03193866), a Swedish nationwide observational study in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), to identify trajectories of fatigue and their association with physical disability following start of disease-modifying therapy (DMT). METHODS: Using a group-modelling approach, we assessed trajectories of fatigue with the Fatigue Scale for Motor and Cognitive Functions and physical disability with Expanded Disability Status Scale among 1587 and 1818 individuals who initiated a first DMT and had a first DMT switch, respectively, followed during 2011-2022. We investigated predictors of fatigue trajectories using group membership as a multinomial outcome and calculated conditional probabilities linking membership across the trajectories. RESULTS: We identified five trajectories of fatigue in participants who initiated their first DMT: no fatigue (mean starting values=23.7; 18.2% of population), low (35.5; 23.9%), mild (49.0; 21.6%), moderate (61.3; 20.1%) and severe (78.7; 16.1%). While no, low, mild and severe fatigue trajectories remained stable, the moderate trajectory increased to severe fatigue. Similarly, we identified six fatigue trajectories among participants who did a DMT switch, all indicating stable values over time. Women initiating a first DMT were more likely than men to display a severe fatigue trajectory, relative to the no fatigue one. There was a strong association between fatigue and physical disability trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of people with actively treated RRMS, self-reported fatigue remained stable or increased over the years following DMT start. There was a strong association between fatigue and disability after DMT start.

Trajectories of cognitive processing speed and physical disability over 11 years following initiation of a first multiple sclerosis disease-modulating therapy.

BACKGROUND: We analysed the COMparison Between All immunoTherapies for Multiple Sclerosis (NCT03193866), a Swedish nationwide observational study in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), to identify trajectories of processing speed and physical disability after disease-modulating therapy (DMT) start. METHODS: Using a group-modelling approach, we assessed trajectories of processing speed with oral Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) and physical disability with Expanded Disability Status Scale, from first DMT start among 1645 patients with RRMS followed during 2011-2022. We investigated predictors of trajectories using group membership as a multinomial outcome and calculated conditional probabilities linking membership across the trajectories. RESULTS: We identified 5 stable trajectories of processing speed: low SDMT scores (mean starting values=29.9; 5.4% of population), low/medium (44.3; 25.3%), medium (52.6; 37.9%), medium/high (63.1; 25.8%) and high (72.4; 5.6%). We identified 3 physical disability trajectories: no disability/stable (0.8; 26.8%), minimal disability/stable (1.6; 58.1%) and moderate disability (3.2; 15.1%), which increased to severe disability. Older patients starting interferons were more likely than younger patients starting rituximab to be on low processing speed trajectories. Older patients starting teriflunomide, with more than one comorbidity, and a history of pain treatment were more likely to belong to the moderate/severe physical disability trajectory, relative to the no disability one. There was a strong association between processing speed and physical disability trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of actively treated RRMS, patients' processing speed remained stable over the years following DMT start, whereas patients with moderate physical disability deteriorated in physical function. Nevertheless, there was a strong link between processing speed and disability after DMT start.

Combining Mendelian randomization with the sibling comparison design.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a popular epidemiologic study design that uses genetic variants as instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate causal effects, while accounting for unmeasured confounding. The validity of the MR design hinges on certain IV assumptions, which may sometimes be violated due to dynastic effects, population stratification, or assortative mating. Since these mechanisms act through parental factors it was recently suggested that the bias resulting from violations of the IV assumptions can be reduced by combing the MR design with the sibling comparison design, which implicitly controls for all factors that are constant within families. In this article, we provide a formal discussion of this combined MR-sibling design. We derive conditions under which the MR-sibling design is unbiased, and we relate these to the corresponding conditions for the standard MR and sibling comparison designs. We proceed by considering scenarios where all three designs are biased to some extent, and discuss under which conditions the MR-sibling design can be expected to have less bias than the other two designs. We finally illustrate the theoretical results and conclusions with an application to real data, in a study of low-density lipoprotein and diastolic blood pressure using data from the Swedish Twin Registry.

Hypogammaglobulinaemia during rituximab treatment in multiple sclerosis: A Swedish cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Mechanisms behind hypogammaglobulinaemia during rituximab treatment are poorly understood. METHODS: In this register-based multi-centre retrospective cohort study of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients in Sweden, 2745 patients from six participating Swedish MS centres were identified via the Swedish MS registry and included between 14 March 2008 and 25 January 2021. The exposure was treatment with at least one dose of rituximab for MS or clinically isolated syndrome, including data on treatment duration and doses. The degree of yearly decrease in immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) levels was evaluated. RESULTS: The mean decrease in IgG was 0.27 (95% confidence interval 0.17-0.36) g/L per year on rituximab treatment, slightly less in older patients, and without significant difference between sexes. IgG or IgM below the lower limit of normal (<6.7 or <0.27 g/L) was observed in 8.8% and 8.3% of patients, respectively, as nadir measurements. Six out of 2745 patients (0.2%) developed severe hypogammaglobulinaemia (IgG below 4.0 g/L) during the study period. Time on rituximab and accumulated dose were the main predictors for IgG decrease. Previous treatment with fingolimod and natalizumab, but not teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate, interferons or glatiramer acetate, were significantly associated with lower baseline IgG levels by 0.80-1.03 g/L, compared with treatment-naïve patients. Switching from dimethyl fumarate or interferons was associated with an additional IgG decline of 0.14-0.19 g/L per year, compared to untreated. CONCLUSIONS: Accumulated dose and time on rituximab treatment are associated with a modest but significant decline in immunoglobulin levels. Previous MS therapies may influence additional IgG decline.

Cancer risks with JAKi and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in patients with rheumatoid arthritis or psoriatic arthritis: a national real-world cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Assess cancer risks with Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) versus biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) in clinical practice. METHODS: Cohort study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or psoriatic arthritis (PsA) initiating treatment with JAKi, tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) or other (non-TNFi) bDMARDs 2016-2020 using prospectively collected data from the Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register linked to other registers including the Cancer Register. We estimated incidence rates, and HRs via Cox regression, for all cancers excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), and for individual cancer types including NMSC. RESULTS: We identified 10 447 patients with RA and 4443 patients with PsA who initiated treatment with JAKi, a non-TNFi bDMARD or a TNFi. Median follow-up times in RA were 1.95, 2.83 and 2.49 years, respectively. In RA, based on 38 incident cancers other than NMSC with JAKi vs 213 with TNFi the overall HR was 0.94 (95% CI 0.65 to 1.38). Based on 59 vs 189 incident NMSC, the HR was 1.39 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.91). At 2 or more years since treatment start, the HR for NMSC was 2.12 (95% CI 1.15 to 3.89). In PsA, based on 5 vs 73 incident cancers other than NMSC, and 8 vs 73 incident NMSC, the corresponding HRs were 1.9 (95% CI 0.7 to 5.2) and 2.1 (95% CI 0.8 to 5.3). CONCLUSION: In clinical practice, the short-term risk of cancer other than NMSC in individuals initiating treatment with JAKi is not higher than for TNFi, but we found evidence of increased risk for NMSC.

Venous thromboembolism with JAK inhibitors and other immune-modulatory drugs: a Swedish comparative safety study among patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi), tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) or other biological disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs). For contextualisation, to assess VTE incidences in the Swedish general population and in the RA source population. METHODS: We performed a nationwide register-based, active comparator, new user design cohort study in Sweden from 2010 to 2021. The Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register was linked to national health registers to identify treatment cohorts (exposure) of initiators of a JAKi, a TNFi, or a non-TNFi bDMARD (n=32 737 treatment initiations). We also identified a general population cohort (matched 1:5, n=92 108), and an 'overall RA' comparator cohort (n=85 722). Outcome was time to first VTE during the follow-up, overall and by deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). We calculated incidence rates (IR) and multivariable-adjusted HRs using Cox regression. RESULTS: Based on 559 incident VTE events, the age- and sex-standardised (to TNFi) IR (95% CI) for VTE was 5.15 per 1000 person-years (4.58 to 5.78) for patients treated with TNFi, 11.33 (8.54 to 15.04) for patients treated with JAKi, 5.86 (5.69 to 6.04) in the overall RA cohort and 3.28 (3.14 to 3.43) in the general population. The fully adjusted HR (95% CI) for VTE with JAKi versus TNFi was 1.73 (1.24 to 2.42), the corresponding HR for PE was 3.21 (2.11 to 4.88) and 0.83 (0.47 to 1.45) for DVT. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with RA treated with JAKi in clinical practice are at increased risk of VTE compared with those treated with bDMARDs, an increase numerically confined to PE.

Safety of biological and targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs for rheumatoid arthritis as used in clinical practice: results from the ARTIS programme.

OBJECTIVE: Longitudinal clinical registry-infrastructures such as Anti-Rheumatic Therapies in Sweden (ARTIS) allow simultaneous comparison of the safety of individual immunomodulatory drugs used in clinical practice, with consistent definitions of treatment cohorts, follow-up and outcomes. Our objective was to assess and compare incidence rates of key safety outcomes for individual targeted synthetic or biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/ts DMARDs) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), updating previous reports and including newer treatments including Janus Kinase inhibitors (JAKi). METHODS: Nationwide register-based cohort study including all patients with RA in Sweden registered as starting any b/tsDMARD 1 January 2010 through 31 December 2020, followed until 30 June 2021 (N=20 117). The incidence rates of selected outcomes, identified through national healthcare registers, were compared between individual b/tsDMARDs, adjusted for confounding by demographics, RA disease characteristics and comorbidity. RESULTS: There were marked differences in treatment discontinuations due to adverse events (rates per 1000 person-years ranged from 18 on rituximab to 57 on tofacitinib), but few significant differences were observed for the serious adverse events under study. Neither cardiovascular events nor general serious infections were more frequent on baricitinib or tofacitinib versus bDMARDs, but JAKi were associated with higher rates of hospital-treated herpes zoster (HR vs etanercept, 3.82 (95% CI 2.05 to 7.09) and 4.00 (1.59 to 10.06)). Low number of events limited some comparisons, in particular for sarilumab and tofacitinib. CONCLUSION: Data from ARTIS supports that the b/tsDMARDs currently used to treat RA have acceptable and largely similar safety profiles, but differences exist in particular concerning tolerability and specific infection risks.

Glucocorticoid exposure and the risk of serious infections in rheumatoid arthritis: a marginal structural model application.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies have reported an increased risk of infections associated with glucocorticoids in RA, not supported by evidence from randomized controlled trials. Inappropriately accommodating time-varying exposure and confounding in observational studies might explain the conflicting results. Therefore, we compared the incidence of serious infections between different oral glucocorticoid dose patterns over three years in a prospective inception cohort, adjusting for time-varying confounders in marginal structural models. METHODS: We included 9654 newly diagnosed RA patients from the Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register between 2007-2018 and followed them for three years after the first rheumatology visit. Follow-up was divided into 90-day periods. A mean oral prednisone daily dose was calculated for each period and categorized into 'no use', 'low' (≤10 mg/day) and 'high' (>10 mg/day) doses. The incidence of serious infections (hospitalization for infection) over follow-up periods was modelled by pooled logistic regression allowing separate effects for recent and past exposure. RESULTS: An increased incidence of serious infections was associated with higher compared with lower doses and with more recent compared with past glucocorticoid exposure. Over 3 years of follow-up, the marginal structural models predicted one additional serious infection for every 83 individuals treated with low GC doses for the first 6 months, and for every 125 individuals treated with high GC doses for the first 3 months, compared with no GC use. CONCLUSION: Our results broadly agree with previous observational studies showing a dose dependent increased risk of infection associated with (recent) use of oral glucocorticoids.

Genome-wide investigation of persistence to treatment with methotrexate in early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the influence of genetic factors on persistence to treatment of early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in a sample of 3902 Swedish early RA patients initiating MTX in DMARD-monotherapy as their first ever DMARD. The outcome, short- and long-term persistence to this treatment, was defined as remaining on MTX at one and at three years, respectively, with no additional DMARDs added. As genetic predictors, we investigated individual SNPs, and a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on SNPs associated with RA risk. The SNP-based heritability of persistence was estimated overall and by RA serostatus. RESULTS: No individual SNP reached genome-wide significance (p < 5e-8), neither for persistence at one nor at three years. The RA PRS was not significantly associated with persistence at one (RR = 0.98 (0.96-1.01)) nor three years (RR = 0.96 (0.93-1.00)). The heritability for persistence was estimated to be 0.45 (0.15-0.75) at one year and 0.14 (0-0.40) at three years. Results in seropositive RA were comparable to those in the analysis of RA overall, while heritability estimates and PRS RRs were attenuated towards the null in seronegative RA. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being the largest GWAS on an MTX treatment outcome to date, no genome-wide significant associations were detected. The modest heritability observed, coupled with the broad spread of suggestively associated loci, indicate that genetic influence is of polygenic nature. Nevertheless, persistence to MTX monotherapy was lower in patients with a greater genetic disposition, per the PRS, towards RA.

Multiple sclerosis, disease-modifying drugs and risk for adverse perinatal and pregnancy outcomes: Results from a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of information on maternal multiple sclerosis (MS) and risk of adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the association between MS and risks of adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes in women with MS. In women with MS, the influence of exposure to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) was also investigated. METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort study on singleton births to mothers with MS and matched MS-free mothers from the general population in Sweden between 2006 and 2020. Women with MS were identified through Swedish health care registries, with MS onset before child's birth. RESULTS: Of 29,568 births included, 3418 births were to 2310 mothers with MS. Compared with MS-free controls, maternal MS was associated with increased risks of elective caesarean sections, instrumental delivery, maternal infection and antepartum haemorrhage/ placental abruption. Compared with offspring of MS-free women, neonates of mothers with MS were at increased risks of medically indicated preterm birth and being born small for gestational age. DMT exposure was not associated with increased risks of malformations. CONCLUSIONS: While maternal MS was associated with a small increased risk of few adverse pregnancy and neonatal outcomes, DMT exposure close to pregnancy was not associated with major adverse outcomes.

The Swedish medical birth register during five decades: documentation of the content and quality of the register.

Pregnancy-related factors are important for short- and long-term health in mothers and offspring. The nationwide population-based Swedish Medical Birth Register (MBR) was established in 1973. The present study describes the content and quality of the MBR, using original MBR data, Swedish-language and international publications based on the MBR.The MBR includes around 98% of all births in Sweden. From 1982 onwards, the MBR is based on prospectively recorded information in standardized antenatal, obstetric, and neonatal records. When the mother and infant are discharged from hospital, this information is forwarded to the MBR, which is updated annually. Maternal data include information from first antenatal visit on self-reported obstetric history, infertility, diseases, medication use, cohabitation status, smoking and snuff use, self-reported height and measured weight, allowing calculation of body mass index. Birth and neonatal data include date and time of birth, mode of delivery, singleton or multiple birth, gestational age, stillbirth, birth weight, birth length, head circumference, infant sex, Apgar scores, and maternal and infant diagnoses/procedures, including neonatal care. The overall quality of the MBR is very high, owing to the semi-automated data extraction from the standardized regional electronic health records, Sweden's universal access to antenatal care, and the possibility to compare mothers and offspring to the Total Population Register in order to identify missing records. Through the unique personal identity numbers of mothers and live-born offspring, the MBR can be linked to other health registers. The Swedish MBR contains high-quality pregnancy-related information on more than 5 million births during five decades.

Accounting for missing data caused by drug cessation in observational comparative effectiveness research: a simulation study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of statistical methods used to compare the effectiveness between drugs in an observational setting in the presence of attrition. METHODS: In this simulation study, we compared the estimations of low disease activity (LDA) at 1 year produced by complete case analysis (CC), last observation carried forward (LOCF), LUNDEX, non-responder imputation (NRI), inverse probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputations of the outcome. All methods were adjusted for confounders. The reasons to stop the treatments were included in the multiple imputation method (confounder-adjusted response rate with attrition correction, CARRAC) and were either included (IPW2) or not (IPW1) in the IPW method. A realistic simulation data set was generated from a real-world data collection. The amount of missing data caused by attrition and its dependence on the 'true' value of the data missing were varied to assess the robustness of each method to these changes. RESULTS: LUNDEX and NRI strongly underestimated the absolute LDA difference between two treatments, and their estimates were highly sensitive to the amount of attrition. IPW1 and CC overestimated the absolute LDA difference between the two treatments and the overestimation increased with increasing attrition or when missingness depended on disease activity at 1 year. IPW2 and CARRAC produced unbiased estimations, but IPW2 had a greater sensitivity to the missing pattern of data and the amount of attrition than CARRAC. CONCLUSIONS: Only multiple imputation and IPW2, which considered both confounding and treatment cessation reasons, produced accurate comparative effectiveness estimates.

Influenza outcomes in patients with inflammatory joint diseases and DMARDs: how do they compare to those of COVID-19?

OBJECTIVES: To estimate absolute and relative risks for seasonal influenza outcomes in patients with inflammatory joint diseases (IJDs) and disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). To contextualise recent findings on corresponding COVID-19 risks. METHODS: Using Swedish nationwide registers for this cohort study, we followed 116 989 patients with IJD and matched population comparators across four influenza seasons (2015-2019). We quantified absolute risks of hospitalisation and death due to influenza, and compared IJD to comparators via Cox regression. We identified 71 556 patients with IJD on active treatment with conventional synthetic DMARDs and biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs)/targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (tsDMARDs) at the start of each influenza season, estimated risks for the same outcomes and compared these risks across DMARDs via Cox regression. RESULTS: Per season, average risks for hospitalisation listing influenza were 0.25% in IJD and 0.1% in the general population, corresponding to a crude HR of 2.38 (95% CI 2.21 to 2.56) that decreased to 1.44 (95% CI 1.33 to 1.56) following adjustments for comorbidities. For death listing influenza, the corresponding numbers were 0.015% and 0.006% (HR=2.63, 95% CI 1.93 to 3.58, and HR=1.46, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.01). Absolute risks for influenza outcomes were half (hospitalisation) and one-tenth (death) of those for COVID-19, but relative estimates comparing IJD to the general population were similar. CONCLUSIONS: In absolute terms, COVID-19 in IJD outnumbers that of average seasonal influenza, but IJD entails a 50%-100% increase in risk for hospitalisation and death for both types of infections, which is largely dependent on associated comorbidities. Overall, bDMARDs/tsDMARDs do not seem to confer additional risk for hospitalisation or death related to seasonal influenza.

EULAR points to consider when analysing and reporting comparative effectiveness research using observational data in rheumatology.

BACKGROUND: Comparing treatment effectiveness over time in observational settings is hampered by several major threats, among them confounding and attrition bias. OBJECTIVES: To develop European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) points to consider (PtC) when analysing and reporting comparative effectiveness research using observational data in rheumatology. METHODS: The PtC were developed using a three-step process according to the EULAR Standard Operating Procedures. Based on a systematic review of methods currently used in comparative effectiveness studies, the PtC were formulated through two in-person meetings of a multidisciplinary task force and a two-round online Delphi, using expert opinion and a simulation study. Finally, feedback from a larger audience was used to refine the PtC. Mean levels of agreement among the task force were calculated. RESULTS: Three overarching principles and 10 PtC were formulated, addressing, in particular, potential biases relating to attrition or confounding by indication. Building on Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines, these PtC insist on the definition of the baseline for analysis and treatment effectiveness. They also focus on the reasons for stopping treatment as an important consideration when assessing effectiveness. Finally, the PtC recommend providing key information on missingness patterns. CONCLUSION: To improve the reliability of an increasing number of real-world comparative effectiveness studies in rheumatology, special attention is required to reduce potential biases. Adherence to clear recommendations for the analysis and reporting of observational comparative effectiveness studies will improve the trustworthiness of their results.

Short- and longer-term cancer risks with biologic and targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs as used against rheumatoid arthritis in clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the occurrence and relative risks of first-ever-incident non-cutaneous cancer overall and for 16 sites in patients with RA treated with biologic and targeted synthetic DMARDs (b/tsDMARDs), by time since treatment start, attained age, and duration of active treatment. METHODS: This is an observational nationwide and population-based cohort study of patients with RA (n = 69 308), treated with TNF inhibitors (TNFi; adalimumab, certolizumab, etanercept, golimumab, infliximab) or other b/tsDMARDs (abatacept, rituximab, baricitinib, tofacitinib and tocilizumab) compared with RA patients not treated with b/tsDMARDs, and matched general population referents (n = 109 532), 2001-2018. The study was based on prospectively collected data from the Swedish Rheumatology Quality Register and from other registers, linked to the national Swedish Cancer Register. Incidence rates and hazard ratios were estimated via Cox regression adjusted for co-morbidities and other health characteristics. RESULTS: Based on 8633 incident cancers among RA patients, the overall relative risk of cancer with TNFi [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.0] was neither increased nor did it change with time since treatment start, duration of active treatment, or attained age, when compared with b/tsDMARD-naïve RA. For other b/tsDMARDs, we noted no consistent signal of increased overall risks (HRs ranged from 1.0 to 1.2), but there were statistically significant estimates above 1 for abatacept with 2-5 years of active treatment, for older age groups, and between several of the bDMARDs and urinary tract cancer. CONCLUSION: TNFis, as used long term in clinical practice against RA, are not linked to increased risks for cancer overall. For other b/tsDMARDs, and for site-specific risks, our results are generally reassuring but contain signals that call for replication.

Effectiveness of baricitinib and tofacitinib compared with bDMARDs in RA: results from a cohort study using nationwide Swedish register data.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the use of baricitinib and tofacitinib by Swedish RA patients and to compare their effectiveness with that of biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs). METHODS: RA patients who initiated baricitinib (n = 1420), tofacitinib (n = 316), abatacept (n = 1050), IL-6 inhibitors (IL-6is; n = 849), rituximab (n = 1101) or TNF inhibitors (TNFis; n = 6036) between January 2017 and November 2019 were followed for a minimum of 1 year using data from several linked Swedish national registers. Proportions reaching a good EULAR 28-joint DAS (DAS28) response, HAQ Disability Index (HAQ-DI) improvement >0.2 units and Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) remission were compared at 1 year, imputing discontinued treatments as 'non-response'. Additionally, we compared drug retention and changes in DAS28, HAQ-DI and CDAI from baseline to 3 months after treatment initiation. RESULTS: On average, baricitinib, and particularly tofacitinib, were initiated as later lines of therapy and more frequently as monotherapy compared with rituximab and TNFi. Adjusted 1 year response proportions were consistently lower on TNFi compared with baricitinib, with differences of -4.3 percentage points (95% CI -8.7, 0.1) for good EULAR response, -9.9 (-14.4 to -5.4) for HAQ-DI improvement and -6.0 (-9.8 to -2.2) for CDAI remission. Comparisons with non-TNFi bDMARDs also favoured baricitinib, but not consistently. Treatment responses for tofacitinib were only marginally lower than those for baricitinib and generally similar to those of bDMARDs, with precision limited by low power. Comparisons of drug retention and changes in disease activity from baseline to 3 months supported the 1 year findings. CONCLUSIONS: Baricitinib and tofacitinib showed at least equivalent effectiveness compared with bDMARDs after exploring several different effectiveness measures.