Characterization and antiviral susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.

The recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529 lineage) variants possessing numerous mutations has raised concerns of decreased effectiveness of current vaccines, therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and antiviral drugs for COVID-19 against these variants1,2. The original Omicron lineage, BA.1, prevailed in many countries, but more recently, BA.2 has become dominant in at least 68 countries3. Here we evaluated the replicative ability and pathogenicity of authentic infectious BA.2 isolates in immunocompetent and human ACE2-expressing mice and hamsters. In contrast to recent data with chimeric, recombinant SARS-CoV-2 strains expressing the spike proteins of BA.1 and BA.2 on an ancestral WK-521 backbone4, we observed similar infectivity and pathogenicity in mice and hamsters for BA.2 and BA.1, and less pathogenicity compared with early SARS-CoV-2 strains. We also observed a marked and significant reduction in the neutralizing activity of plasma from individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 and vaccine recipients against BA.2 compared to ancestral and Delta variant strains. In addition, we found that some therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (REGN10987 plus REGN10933, COV2-2196 plus COV2-2130, and S309) and antiviral drugs (molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir and S-217622) can restrict viral infection in the respiratory organs of BA.2-infected hamsters. These findings suggest that the replication and pathogenicity of BA.2 is similar to that of BA.1 in rodents and that several therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and antiviral compounds are effective against Omicron BA.2 variants.

Impact of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants in Previously Infected Hamsters.

The diversity of SARS-CoV-2 mutations raises the possibility of reinfection of individuals previously infected with earlier variants, and this risk is further increased by the emergence of the B.1.1.529 Omicron variant. In this study, we used an in vivo, hamster infection model to assess the potential for individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 to be reinfected with Omicron variant and we also investigated the pathology associated with such infections. Initially, Syrian hamsters were inoculated with a lineage A, B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.617.2 or a subvariant of Omicron, BA.1 strain and then reinfected with the BA.1 strain 5 weeks later. Subsequently, the impact of reinfection with Omicron subvariants (BA.1 and BA.2) in individuals previously infected with the BA.1 strain was examined. Although viral infection and replication were suppressed in both the upper and lower airways, following reinfection, virus-associated RNA was detected in the airways of most hamsters. Viral replication was more strongly suppressed in the lower respiratory tract than in the upper respiratory tract. Consistent amino acid substitutions were observed in the upper respiratory tract of infected hamsters after primary infection with variant BA.1, whereas diverse mutations appeared in hamsters reinfected with the same variant. Histopathology showed no acute pneumonia or disease enhancement in any of the reinfection groups and, in addition, the expression of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines in the airways of reinfected animals was only mildly elevated. These findings are important for understanding the risk of reinfection with new variants of SARS-CoV-2. IMPORTANCE The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the widespread use of COVID-19 vaccines has resulted in individual differences in immune status against SARS-CoV-2. A decay in immunity over time and the emergence of variants that partially evade the immune response can also lead to reinfection. In this study, we demonstrated that, in hamsters, immunity acquired following primary infection with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants was effective in preventing the onset of pneumonia after reinfection with the Omicron variant. However, viral infection and multiplication in the upper respiratory tract were still observed after reinfection. We also showed that more diverse nonsynonymous mutations appeared in the upper respiratory tract of reinfected hamsters that had acquired immunity from primary infection. This hamster model reveals the within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and its pathology after reinfection, and provides important information for countermeasures against diversifying SARS-CoV-2 variants.

A community cluster of influenza A(H3N2) virus infection with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir due to a PA E199G substitution in Japan, February to March 2023.

A community cluster of influenza A(H3N2) caused by viruses with an E199G substitution in PA was detected in Nara, Japan, between February and March 2023. The three patients with these mutant viruses had not received antiviral treatment before specimen collection but patients in the same hospital had. The sequences of the mutant viruses were closely related, suggesting clonal spread in Nara. They showed reduced susceptibility to baloxavir in vitro; however, the clinical significance of the PA E199G substitution remains unclear.

Detection of Variants With Reduced Baloxavir Marboxil and Oseltamivir Susceptibility in Children With Influenza A During the 2019-2020 Influenza Season.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to detect influenza variants with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) and oseltamivir and identify differences in the clinical course between children with and without these variants after antiviral treatment. METHODS: During the 2019-2020 influenza season, we enrolled children with confirmed influenza A (20 treated with baloxavir and 16 with oseltamivir). We analyzed patients' sequential viral RNA loads and infectious virus titers, the drug susceptibilities of clinical isolates, and amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerase acidic protein subunits or neuraminidase. We assessed patients' clinical information using questionnaires. RESULTS: All viral RNA loads and virus titers were significantly decreased after treatment, but we detected baloxavir-resistant and oseltamivir-resistant variants in 5 of 20 and 3 of 16 patients, respectively. The duration of fever was similar between patients with and without the variants, but infectious viral shedding lasted 3 days longer in patients with baloxavir-resistant variants. In addition, the duration to improvement of clinical symptoms was longer in these patients (75.0 vs 29.5 hours; P = .106). CONCLUSIONS: After antiviral treatment, the emergence of baloxavir-resistant variants may affect the patients' clinical course, but oseltamivir-resistant variants had no clinical impact.

Successful treatment with baloxavir marboxil of a patient with peramivir-resistant influenza A/H3N2 with a dual E119D/R292K substitution after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Extended use of oseltamivir in an immunocompromised host could reportedly induce neuraminidase gene mutation possibly leading to oseltamivir-resistant influenza A/H3N2 virus. To our knowledge, no report is available on the clinical course of a severely immunocompromised patient with a dual E119D/R292K neuraminidase mutated-influenza A/H3N2 during the administration of peramivir. CASE PRESENTATION: A 49-year-old male patient was admitted for second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for active acute leukemia. The patient received 5 mg prednisolone and 75 mg cyclosporine and had severe lymphopenia (70/µL). At the time of hospitalization, the patient was diagnosed with upper tract influenza A virus infection, and oseltamivir treatment was initiated immediately. However, the patient was intolerant to oseltamivir. The following day, treatment was changed to peramivir. Despite a total period of neuraminidase-inhibitor administration of 16 days, the symptoms and viral shedding continued. Changing to baloxavir marboxil resolved the symptoms, and the influenza diagnostic test became negative. Subsequently, sequence analysis of the nasopharyngeal specimen revealed the dual E119D/R292K neuraminidase mutant influenza A/H3N2. CONCLUSIONS: In a highly immunocompromised host, clinicians should take care when peramivir is used for extended periods to treat influenza virus A/H3N2 infection as this could potentially leading to a dual E119D/R292K substitution in neuraminidase protein. Baloxavir marboxil may be one of the agents that can be used to treat this type of mutated influenza virus infection.

Human-to-Human Transmission of Influenza A(H3N2) Virus with Reduced Susceptibility to Baloxavir, Japan, February 2019.

In 2019, influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic gene, which confers reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, were detected in Japan in an infant without baloxavir exposure and a baloxavir-treated sibling. These viruses' whole-genome sequences were identical, indicating human-to-human transmission. Influenza virus isolates should be monitored for baloxavir susceptibility.

Genetic and antigenic characterisation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses isolated in Yokohama during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A(H3N2) virus rapidly evolves to evade human immune responses, resulting in changes in the antigenicity of haemagglutinin (HA). Therefore, continuous genetic and antigenic analyses of A(H3N2) virus are necessary to detect antigenic mutants as quickly as possible. AIM: We attempted to phylogenetically and antigenically capture the epidemic trend of A(H3N2) virus infection in Yokohama, Japan during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons. METHODS: We determined the HA sequences of A(H3N2) viruses detected in Yokohama, Japan during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons to identify amino acid substitutions and the loss or gain of potential N-glycosylation sites in HA, both of which potentially affect the antigenicity of HA. We also examined the antigenicity of isolates using ferret antisera obtained from experimentally infected ferrets. RESULTS: Influenza A(H3N2) viruses belonging to six clades (clades 3C.2A1, 3C.2A1a, 3C.2A1b, 3C.2A2, 3C.2A3 and 3C.2A4) were detected during the 2016/17 influenza season, whereas viruses belonging to two clades (clades 3C.2A1b and 3C.2A2) dominated during the 2017/18 influenza season. The isolates in clades 3C.2A1a and 3C.2A3 lost one N-linked glycosylation site in HA relative to other clades. Antigenic analysis revealed antigenic differences among clades, especially clade 3C.2A2 and 3C.2A4 viruses, which showed distinct antigenic differences from each other and from other clades in the antigenic map. CONCLUSION: Multiple clades, some of which differed antigenically from others, co-circulated in Yokohama, Japan during the 2016/17 and 2017/18 influenza seasons.

Detection of influenza A(H3N2) viruses exhibiting reduced susceptibility to the novel cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir in Japan, December 2018.

The novel cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir marboxil was approved for the treatment of influenza virus infection in Japan in February 2018. Two influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic subunit (PA) were detected in baloxavir-treated children in December 2018. This mutation is known to confer reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, and the two mutant viruses exhibited 76- and 120-fold reduced susceptibility to baloxavir.

Influenza A(H3N2) virus exhibiting reduced susceptibility to baloxavir due to a polymerase acidic subunit I38T substitution detected from a hospitalised child without prior baloxavir treatment, Japan, January 2019.

In January 2019, two influenza A(H3N2) viruses carrying an I38T substitution in the polymerase acidic subunit (PA), which confers reduced susceptibility to baloxavir, were detected from epidemiologically unrelated hospitalised children in Japan. The viruses exhibited reduced susceptibility to baloxavir but were susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors. Only one of the two children had been treated with baloxavir. An epidemiological analysis suggests possible transmission of the PA I38T mutant A(H3N2) virus among humans.

Clinical characteristics of influenza virus-induced lower respiratory infection during the 2015 to 2016 season.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infections often manifest severe respiratory symptoms, particularly in patients with a past history of allergic disease. Most of these findings were reported during the 2009 pandemic. The purpose of this study was to detail the clinical characteristics of influenza virus-induced lower respiratory infection (LRI) during the A(H1N1)pdm09-predominant 2015-2016 season. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical characteristics of influenza-induced LRI cases in children admitted to a tertiary children's hospital. Molecular diagnostic evaluation was performed on samples obtained from the most severe cases. RESULTS: We identified 66 patients with influenza-associated hospitalization and included 21 patients with influenza virus-induced LRI for analyses. Twelve patients (57%) were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit, seven (33%) required mechanical ventilation, and three (14%) required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Plastic bronchitis (PB) was identified in six patients (29%), among whom a past medical history of asthma or food allergy were noted in all six patients. A past history of allergic disease was more common among patients with, than among those without, PB (p = 0.009). A(H1N1)pdm09 was detected from all the PB cases, and phylogenetic analyses of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes demonstrated that this virus belonged to subclades 6B.1 and 6B.2. In the six PB cases, we found one patient with H275Y mutation in neuraminidase. CONCLUSION: Allergic disease was a risk factor for developing PB due to influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection during the 2015-16 season.

Virological characteristics of hepatitis B genotype G/A2 recombination virus in Japan.

AIM: We identified four cases of infection with hepatitis B virus genotype G and A2 recombinant (HBV/G/A2) strains, which were initially overlooked by enzyme immunoassay-based genotyping. The patients were all men who have sex with men (MSM) and inhabited several metropolitan areas of Japan, suggesting that the recombinant strains may be circulating among high-risk groups such as MSM. Here, we investigated the genomic structure and virological properties of the HBV/G/A2 strains. METHODS: Complete genome sequences of the isolates were determined and phylogenetically analyzed. Replication efficiency of HBV/G/A2 was investigated by transfecting plasmids containing 1.24-fold viral genome. The in vivo viral kinetics of HBV/G/A2 were investigated using chimeric mice with humanized livers. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the four strains were almost identical (>99.7% homologous). The preS2/S region of these strains was highly homologous to that of genotype A2 and the remaining region was almost identical to that of genotype G, reflecting inter-genotypic recombination. Interestingly, in all four cases, genotype A was co-infected as a minor population. In vitro analysis revealed that HBV/G/A2 had a low replication rate. Although detectable viremia was not measurable following the inoculation of HBV/G/A2 into chimeric mice, subsequent superinfection of HBV genotype A greatly enhanced HBV/G/A2 replication and viral spread. CONCLUSION: We found that four cases of HBV/G/A2 recombinant among MSM patients in the metropolitan areas of Japan, and HBV/A co-infections are required for its efficient replication. High-risk groups such as MSM should be carefully tested for infection of genotype G-derived variants.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus exhibiting enhanced cross-resistance to oseltamivir and peramivir due to a dual H275Y/G147R substitution, Japan, March 2016.

An influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus carrying a G147R substitution in combination with an H275Y substitution in the neuraminidase protein, which confers cross-resistance to oseltamivir and peramivir, was detected from an immunocompromised inpatient in Japan, March 2016. This dual H275Y/G147R mutant virus exhibited enhanced cross-resistance to both drugs compared with the single H275Y mutant virus and reduced susceptibility to zanamivir, although it showed normal inhibition by laninamivir.

Geographic and temporal trends in the molecular epidemiology and genetic mechanisms of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance: an individual-patient- and sequence-level meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Regional and subtype-specific mutational patterns of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) are essential for informing first-line antiretroviral (ARV) therapy guidelines and designing diagnostic assays for use in regions where standard genotypic resistance testing is not affordable. We sought to understand the molecular epidemiology of TDR and to identify the HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations responsible for TDR in different regions and virus subtypes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We reviewed all GenBank submissions of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences with or without protease and identified 287 studies published between March 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, with more than 25 recently or chronically infected ARV-naïve individuals. These studies comprised 50,870 individuals from 111 countries. Each set of study sequences was analyzed for phylogenetic clustering and the presence of 93 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs). The median overall TDR prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), south/southeast Asia (SSEA), upper-income Asian countries, Latin America/Caribbean, Europe, and North America was 2.8%, 2.9%, 5.6%, 7.6%, 9.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. In SSA, there was a yearly 1.09-fold (95% CI: 1.05-1.14) increase in odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up attributable to an increase in non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance. The odds of NNRTI-associated TDR also increased in Latin America/Caribbean (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06-1.25), North America (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12-1.26), Europe (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01-1.13), and upper-income Asian countries (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.12-1.55). In SSEA, there was no significant change in the odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up (OR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.92-1.02). An analysis limited to sequences with mixtures at less than 0.5% of their nucleotide positions­a proxy for recent infection­yielded trends comparable to those obtained using the complete dataset. Four NNRTI SDRMs­K101E, K103N, Y181C, and G190A­accounted for >80% of NNRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. Sixteen nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) SDRMs accounted for >69% of NRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. In SSA and SSEA, 89% of NNRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to nevirapine or efavirenz, whereas only 27% of NRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to zidovudine, lamivudine, tenofovir, or abacavir. Of 763 viruses with TDR in SSA and SSEA, 725 (95%) were genetically dissimilar; 38 (5%) formed 19 sequence pairs. Inherent limitations of this study are that some cohorts may not represent the broader regional population and that studies were heterogeneous with respect to duration of infection prior to sampling. CONCLUSIONS: Most TDR strains in SSA and SSEA arose independently, suggesting that ARV regimens with a high genetic barrier to resistance combined with improved patient adherence may mitigate TDR increases by reducing the generation of new ARV-resistant strains. A small number of NNRTI-resistance mutations were responsible for most cases of high-level resistance, suggesting that inexpensive point-mutation assays to detect these mutations may be useful for pre-therapy screening in regions with high levels of TDR. In the context of a public health approach to ARV therapy, a reliable point-of-care genotypic resistance test could identify which patients should receive standard first-line therapy and which should receive a protease-inhibitor-containing regimen.

Characterization of a large cluster of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses cross-resistant to oseltamivir and peramivir during the 2013-2014 influenza season in Japan.

Between September 2013 and July 2014, 2,482 influenza 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) [A(H1N1)pdm09] viruses were screened in Japan for the H275Y substitution in their neuraminidase (NA) protein, which confers cross-resistance to oseltamivir and peramivir. We found that a large cluster of the H275Y mutant virus was present prior to the main influenza season in Sapporo /: Hokkaido, with the detection rate for this mutant virus reaching 29% in this area. Phylogenetic analysis suggested the clonal expansion of a single mutant virus in Sapporo /: Hokkaido. To understand the reason for this large cluster, we examined the in vitro and in vivo properties of the mutant virus. We found that it grew well in cell culture, with growth comparable to that of the wild-type virus. The cluster virus also replicated well in the upper respiratory tract of ferrets and was transmitted efficiently between ferrets by way of respiratory droplets. Almost all recently circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, including the cluster virus, possessed two substitutions in NA, V241I and N369K, which are known to increase replication and transmission fitness. A structural analysis of NA predicted that a third substitution (N386K) in the NA of the cluster virus destabilized the mutant NA structure in the presence of the V241I and N369K substitutions. Our results suggest that the cluster virus retained viral fitness to spread among humans and, accordingly, caused the large cluster in Sapporo/Hokkaido. However, the mutant NA structure was less stable than that of the wild-type virus. Therefore, once the wild-type virus began to circulate in the community, the mutant virus could not compete and faded out.

Antiviral susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses from 3 co-infected pediatric patients.

In Japan, influenza activity was low throughout the COVID-19 pandemic until the 2022-23 season, when the first influenza outbreak occurred since the 2020-21 season. In our influenza surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus had not been detected; however, in January 2024, we identified three pediatric outpatients co-infected with these viruses: one with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron EG.5 sublineage HK.3 and influenza A(H3N2) and two with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 sublineage JN.1.5 and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We evaluated the susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 against RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibitors (remdesivir and molnupiravir) and 3C-like protease inhibitors (nirmatrelvir and ensitrelvir), and that of influenza viruses against neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir, peramivir, zanamivir, and laninamivir) and the cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir. All viruses tested were susceptible to these antiviral drugs and did not possess amino acid substitutions associated with reduced antiviral susceptibility. The patients were treated with anti-influenza drugs and did not develop severe symptoms despite the co-infection. Since SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses continue to evolve, continuous monitoring of their circulation remains essential to assess public health measures and support clinical management.

Evaluation of a qualified MDCK cell line for virus isolation to develop cell-based influenza vaccine viruses with appropriate antigenicity.

We established a qualified Madin-Darby canine kidney cell line (qMDCK-Cs) and investigated its suitability for source virus isolation to develop cell-based seasonal influenza vaccine viruses using vaccine manufacturer cells (Manuf-Cs). When inoculated with 81 influenza-positive clinical specimens, the initial virus isolation efficiency of qMDCK-Cs was exceeded 70%. Among the qMDCK-C isolates, 100% of the A/H1N1pdm09, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata strains and >70% of the A/H3N2 strains showed antigenicity equivalent to that of the contemporary vaccine or relevant viruses in haemagglutination inhibition (HI) or virus neutralization (VN) tests using ferret antisera. These qMDCK-C isolates were propagated in Manuf-Cs (MDCK and Vero cells) (Manuf-C viruses) to develop vaccine viruses. In reciprocal antigenicity tests, ferret antisera raised against corresponding reference viruses and Manuf-C viruses recognized 29 of 31 Manuf-C viruses and corresponding reference viruses, respectively at HI or VN titres more than half of the homologous virus titres, which is the antigenicity criterion for cell culture seasonal influenza vaccine viruses specified by the World Health Organization. Furthermore, ferret antisera against these Manuf-C viruses recognized ≥95% of the viruses circulating during the relevant influenza season with HI or VN titres greater than one-quarter of the homologous virus titres. No cell line-specific amino acid substitutions were observed in the resulting viruses. However, polymorphisms at positions 158/160 of H3HA, 148/151 of N2NA and 197/199 of B/Victoria HA were occasionally detected in the qMDCK-C and Manuf-C viruses but barely affected the viral antigenicity. These results indicated that qMDCK-Cs are suitable for isolating influenza viruses that can serve as a source of antigenically appropriate vaccine viruses. The use of the qMDCK-C isolates will eliminates the need for clinical sample collection, virus isolation, and antigenicity analysis every season, and is expected to contribute to the promotion of vaccine virus development using manufacturer cells.

Monitoring Influenza C and D Viruses in Patients With Respiratory Diseases in Japan, January 2018 to March 2023.

BACKGROUND: Influenza viruses can cause zoonotic infections that pose public health risks. Surveillance of influenza A and B viruses is conducted globally; however, information on influenza C and D viruses is limited. Longitudinal monitoring of influenza C virus in humans has been conducted in several countries, but there has been no long-term monitoring of influenza D virus in humans. The public health risks associated with the influenza D virus therefore remain unknown. METHODS: We established a duplex real-time RT-PCR to detect influenza C and D viruses and analyzed respiratory specimens collected from 2144 patients in Japan with respiratory diseases between January 2018 and March 2023. We isolated viruses and conducted hemagglutination inhibition tests to examine antigenicity and focus reduction assays to determine susceptibility to the cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir marboxil. RESULTS: We detected three influenza C viruses belonging to the C/Kanagawa- or C/Sao Paulo-lineages, which recently circulated globally. None of the specimens was positive for the influenza D virus. The C/Yokohama/1/2022 strain, isolated from the specimen with the highest viral RNA load and belonging to the C/Kanagawa-lineage, showed similar antigenicity to the reference C/Kanagawa-lineage strain and was susceptible to baloxavir. CONCLUSIONS: Our duplex real-time RT-PCR is useful for the simultaneous detection of influenza C and D viruses from the same specimen. Adding the influenza D virus to the monitoring of the influenza C virus would help in assessing the public health risks posed by this virus.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Seasonal influenza (flu) viruses cause outbreaks every winter. People infected with influenza typically develop mild respiratory symptoms. But flu infections can cause serious illness in young children, older adults and people with chronic medical conditions. Infected or vaccinated individuals develop some immunity, but the viruses evolve quickly to evade these defenses in a process called antigenic drift. As the viruses change, they can re-infect previously immune people. Scientists update the flu vaccine yearly to keep up with this antigenic drift. The immune system fights flu infections by recognizing two proteins, known as antigens, on the virus's surface, called hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). However, mutations in the genes encoding these proteins can make them unrecognizable, letting the virus slip past the immune system. Scientists would like to know how these changes affect the size, severity and timing of annual influenza outbreaks. Perofsky et al. show that tracking genetic changes in HA and NA may help improve flu season predictions. The experiments compared the severity of 22 flu seasons caused by the A(H3N2) subtype in the United States with how much HA and NA had evolved since the previous year. The A(H3N2) subtype experiences the fastest rates of antigenic drift and causes more cases and deaths than other seasonal flu viruses. Genetic changes in HA and NA were a better predictor of A(H3N2) outbreak severity than the blood tests for protective antibodies that epidemiologists traditionally use to track flu evolution. However, the prevalence of another subtype of influenza A circulating in the population, called A(H1N1), was an even better predictor of how severe A(H3N2) outbreaks would be. Perofsky et al. are the first to show that genetic changes in NA contribute to the severity of flu seasons. Previous studies suggested a link between genetic changes in HA and flu season severity, and flu vaccines include the HA protein to help the body recognize new influenza strains. The results suggest that adding the NA protein to flu vaccines may improve their effectiveness. In the future, flu forecasters may want to analyze genetic changes in both NA and HA to make their outbreak predictions. Tracking how much of the A(H1N1) subtype is circulating may also be useful for predicting the severity of A(H3N2) outbreaks.