The Society of Thoracic Surgeons voluntary public reporting initiative: the first 4 years.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate participant characteristics and outcomes during the first 4 years of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) public reporting program. BACKGROUND: This is the first detailed analysis of a national, voluntary, cardiac surgery public reporting program using STS clinical registry data and National Quality Forum-endorsed performance measures. METHODS: The distributions of risk-adjusted mortality rates, multidimensional composite performance scores, star ratings, and volumes for public reporting versus nonreporting sites were studied during 9 consecutive semiannual reporting periods (2010-2014). RESULTS: Among 8929 unique observations (∼1000 STS participant centers, 9 reporting periods), 916 sites (10.3%) were classified low performing, 6801 (76.2%) were average, and 1212 (13.6%) were high performing. STS public reporting participation varied from 22.2% to 46.3% over the 9 reporting periods. Risk-adjusted, patient-level mortality rates for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting were consistently lower in public reporting versus nonreporting sites (P value range: <0.001-0.0077). Reporting centers had higher composite performance scores and star ratings (23.2% high performing and 4.5% low performing vs 7.6% high performing and 13.8% low performing for nonreporting sites). STS public reporting sites had higher mean annualized coronary artery bypass grafting volumes than nonreporting sites (169 vs 145, P < 0.0001); high-performing programs had higher mean coronary artery bypass grafting volumes (n = 241) than average (n = 139) or low-performing (n = 153) sites. Risk factor prevalence (except reoperation) and expected mortality rates were generally stable during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: STS programs that voluntarily participate in public reporting have significantly higher volumes and performance. No evidence of risk aversion was found.

Calibration Factors for STS Risk Model Predictions: Why, How and When They Are Used.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database is the world's premier adult cardiac surgery outcomes registry. This tutorial explains the following: how STS updates the risk models that are used to calculate the predicted risks of adverse events in the registry; why STS on a quarterly basis adjusts or "calibrates" the observed-to-expected ratios to equal 1 (O/E = 1), thereby effectively making the annual number of adverse events predicted by the model match the annual number of adverse events observed in the entire registry; the differences between the calibrated and uncalibrated O/E ratios; and how and when to use each.

The STS Participant-Level, Multiprocedural Composite Measure for Adult Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Composite performance measures for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database participants (typically hospital departments or practice groups) are currently available only for individual procedures. To assess overall participant performance, STS has developed a composite metric encompassing the most common adult cardiac procedures. METHODS: Analyses included 1-year (July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019) and 3-year (July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2019) time windows. Operations included isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR), isolated mitral valve repair (MVr) or replacement (MVR), AVR + CABG, MVr or MVR + CABG, AVR + MVr or MVR, and AVR + (MVr or MVR) + CABG. The composite was estimated using Bayesian hierarchical models with risk-adjusted mortality and morbidity end points. Star ratings were based upon whether the 95% credible interval of a participant's score was entirely lower than (1 star), overlapping (2 star), or higher than (3 star) the STS average composite score. RESULTS: The North American procedural mix in the 3-year study cohort was as follows: 448 569 CABG, 72 067 AVR, 35 708 MVr, 29 953 MVR, 45 254 AVR + CABG, 12 247 MVr + CABG, 10 118 MVR + CABG, 3743 AVR + MVr, 6846 AVR + MVR, and 3765 AVR + (MVr or MVR) + CABG. Mortality and morbidity weightings were similar for 1- and 3-year analyses (76% and 24% [3-year]), as were composite score distributions (median, 94.7%; interquartile range, 93.6% to 95.6% [3-year]). The 3-year time frame was selected for operational use because of higher model reliability (0.81 [0.78-0.83]) and better outlier discrimination (26%, 3 star; 16%, 1 star). Risk-adjusted outcomes for 1-, 2-, and 3-star programs were 4.3%, 3.0%, and 1.8% mortality and 18.4%, 13.4%, and 9.7% morbidity, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The STS participant-level, multiprocedural composite measure provides comprehensive, highly reliable, overall quality assessment of adult cardiac surgery practices.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2021 Adult Cardiac Surgery Risk Models for Multiple Valve Operations.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Quality Measurement Task Force has developed risk models and composite performance measures for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR), isolated mitral valve replacement or repair (MVRR), AVR+CABG, and MVRR+CABG. To further enhance its portfolio of risk-adjusted performance metrics, STS has developed new risk models for multiple valve operations ± CABG procedures. METHODS: Using July 2011 to June 2019 STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database data, risk models for AVR+MVRR (n = 31,968) and AVR+MVRR+CABG (n = 12,650) were developed with the following endpoints: Operative Mortality, major morbidity (any 1 or more of the following: cardiac reoperation, deep sternal wound infection/mediastinitis, stroke, prolonged ventilation, and renal failure), and combined mortality and/or major morbidity. Data were divided into development (July 2011 to June 2017; n = 35,109) and validation (July 2017 to June 2019; n = 9509) samples. Predictors were selected by assessing model performance and clinical face validity of full and progressively more parsimonious models. Performance of the resulting models was evaluated by assessing discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: C-statistics for the overall population of multiple valve ± CABG procedures were 0.7086, 0.6734, and 0.6840 for mortality, morbidity, and combined mortality and/or morbidity in the development sample, and 0.6953, 0.6561, and 0.6634 for the same outcomes, respectively, in the validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: New STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database risk models have been developed for multiple valve ± CABG operations, and these models will be used in subsequent STS performance metrics.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Composite Measure: 2021 Methodology Update.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) original coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) composite measure uses a 1-year analytic cohort and 98% credible intervals (CrI) to classify better than expected (3-star) performance or worse than expected (1-star) performance. As CABG volumes per STS participant (eg, hospital or practice group) have decreased, it has become more challenging to classify performance categories using this approach, especially for lower volume programs, and alternative approaches have been explored. METHODS: Among 990 STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database participants, performance classifications for the CABG composite were studied using various analytic cohorts: 1 year (current approach, 2017); 3 years (2015 to 2017); last 450 cases within 3 years; and most recent year (2017) plus additional cases to 450 total. We also compared 98% CrI with 95% CrI (used in other STS composite measures). RESULTS: Using 3 years of data and 95% CrIs, 113 of 990 participants (11.4%) were classified 1-star and 198 (20%) 3-star. Compared with 1-year analytic cohorts and 98% CrI, the absolute and relative increases in the proportion of 3-star participants were 14 percentage points and 233% (n = 198 [20%] vs n = 59 [6%]). Corresponding changes for 1-star participants were 6.5 percentage points and 133% (n = 113 [11.4%] vs n = 48 [4.9%]). These changes were particularly notable among lower volume (fewer than 199 CABG per year) participants. Measure reliability with the 3-year, 95% CrI modification is 0.78. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with current STS CABG composite methodology, a 3-year analytic cohort and 95% CrI increases the number and proportion of better or worse than expected outliers, especially among lower-volume Adult Cardiac Surgery Database participants. This revised methodology is also now consistent with other STS procedure composites.

Failure to Rescue: A New Society of Thoracic Surgeons Quality Metric for Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Failure to rescue (FTR) focuses on the ability to prevent death among patients who have postoperative complications. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Quality Measurement Task Force has developed a new, risk-adjusted FTR quality metric for adult cardiac surgery. METHODS: The study population was taken from 1118 STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database participants including patients who underwent isolated CABG, aortic valve replacement with or without CABG, or mitral valve repair or replacement with or without CABG between January 2015 and June 2019. The FTR analysis was derived from patients who had one or more of the following complications: prolonged ventilation, stroke, reoperation, and renal failure. Data were randomly split into 70% training samples (n = 89,059) and 30% validation samples (n = 38,242). Risk variables included STS predicted risk of mortality, operative procedures, and intraoperative variables (cardiopulmonary bypass and cross-clamp times, unplanned procedures, need for circulatory support, and massive transfusion). RESULTS: Overall mortality for patients undergoing any of the index operations during the study period was 2.6% (27,045 of 1,058,138), with mortality of 0.9% (8316 of 930,837), 8% (7618 of 94,918), 30.6% (8247 of 26,934), 51.9% (2661 of 5123), and 62.3% (203 of 326), respectively, among patients having none, one, two, three, or four complications. The FTR risk model calibration was excellent, as were model discrimination (c-statistic 0.806) and the Brier score (0.102). Using 95% Bayesian credible intervals, 62 participants (5.6%) performed worse and 53 (4.7%) performed better than expected. CONCLUSIONS: A new risk-adjusted FTR metric has been developed that complements existing STS performance measures. The metric specifically assesses institutional effectiveness of postoperative care, allowing hospitals to target quality improvement efforts.

Does tight glucose control prevent myocardial injury and inflammation?

Hyperglycemia has been postulated to be cardiotoxic. We addressed the hypothesis that uncontrolled blood glucose induces myocardial damage in diabetic patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery receiving continuous insulin infusion in the immediate postoperative period. Our primary aim was to assess the degree of tight glycemic control for each patient and to link the degree of glycemic control to intermediate outcome of myocardial damage. We prospectively enrolled 199 consecutive patients with diabetes undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery from October 2003 through August 2005. Preoperative hemoglobin A1c and glucose measures were collected from the surgical admission. We measured biomarkers of myocardial damage (cardiac troponin I) and metabolic dysfunction (blood glucose and hemoglobin A1c) to identify a difference among patients under tight (90-100% of glucose measures < or = 150 mg/dL) or loose (<90%) glycemic control. All patients received continuous insulin infusion in the immediate postoperative period. We discovered 45.6% of the patients were in tight control. We found tight glycemic control resulted in no significant difference in troponin I release. Mean cardiac troponin I for tight and loose control was 4.9 and 8.5 (ng/mL), p value .3.We discovered patients varied with their degree of control, even with established protocols to maintain glucose levels within the normal range. We were unable to verify tight glycemic control compared to loose control was significantly associated with decreased cardiac troponin I release. Future studies are needed to evaluate the cardiotoxic mechanisms of hyperglycemia postulated in this study.

Continuous Monitoring of Risk-Adjusted Outcomes: Excess Deaths vs Lives Saved.

Reporting of risk-adjusted surgical outcomes is commonly used to compare providers and track changes over time. Preferred graphical methods use the relationship of the observed to the expected values of outcome events, including their ratio (O/E), and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of their differences over time, called Risk-Adjusted CUSUM (RA-CUSUM) or Variable Life Adjusted Display (VLAD). We demonstrate these methods using operative mortality data for 7255 isolated coronary artery bypass graft patients from January 2014 to June 2017. RA-CUSUM and VLAD are excellent techniques to display risk-adjusted outcomes and, unlike O/E, can provide continuous monitoring as performance varies over time.

Fifteen-minute Frequency of Glucose Measurements and the Use of Threshold Alarms: Impact on Mitigating Dysglycemia in Critically Ill Patients.

BACKGROUND: The use of near-continuous blood glucose (BG) monitoring has the potential to improve glycemic control in critically ill patients. The MANAGE IDE trial evaluated the performance of the OptiScanner (OS) 5000 in a multicenter cohort of 200 critically ill patients. METHODS: An Independent Group reviewed the BG run charts of all 200 patients and voted whether unblinded use of the OS, with alarms set at 90 and 130 to 150 mg/dL to alert the clinical team to impending hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia, respectively, would have eliminated episodes of dysglycemia: hypoglycemia, defined as a single BG <70 mg/dL; hyperglycemia, defined as >4 hours of BG >150 mg/dL; severe hyperglycemia, defined as >4 hours of BG >200 mg/dL and increased glucose variability (GV), defined as coefficient of variation (CV) >20%. RESULTS: At least one episode of dysglycemia occurred in 103 (51.5%) of the patients, including 6 (3.0%) with hypoglycemia, 83 (41.5%) with hyperglycemia, 18 (9.0%) with severe hyperglycemia, and 40 (20.0%) with increased GV. Unblinded use of the OS with appropriate alarms would likely have averted 97.1% of the episodes of dysglycemia: hypoglycemia (100.0%), hyperglycemia (96.4%), severe hyperglycemia (100.0%), and increased GV (97.5%). Point accuracy of the OS was very similar to that of the point of care BG monitoring devices used in the trial. CONCLUSION: Unblinded use of the OS would have eliminated nearly every episode of dysglycemia in this cohort of critically ill patients, thereby markedly improving the quality and safety of glucose control.

Initial and Longitudinal Cost of Surgical Resection for Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal cost of treating patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) undergoing surgical resection has not been evaluated. We describe initial and 4-year resource use and cost for NSCLC patients aged 65 years of age or greater who were treated surgically between 2008 and 2013. METHODS: Using clinical data for NSCLC resections from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database linked to Medicare claims, resource use and cost of preoperative staging, surgery, and subsequent care through 4 years were examined ($2017). Cost of hospital-based care was estimated using cost-to-charge ratios; professional services and care in other settings were valued using reimbursements. Inverse probability weighting was used to account for administrative censoring. Outcomes were stratified by pathologic stage and by surgical approach for stage I lobectomy patients. RESULTS: Resection hospitalizations averaged 6 days and cost $31,900. In the first 90 days, costs increased with stage ($12,430 for stage I to $26,350 for stage IV). Costs then declined toward quarterly means more similar among stages. Cumulative costs ranged from $131,032 (stage I) to $205,368 (stage IV). In the stage I lobectomy cohort, patients selected for minimally invasive procedures had lower 4-year costs than did thoracotomy patients ($120,346 versus $136,250). CONCLUSIONS: The 4-year cost of surgical resection for NSCLC was substantial and increased with pathologic stage. Among stage I lobectomy patients, those selected for minimally invasive surgery had lower costs, particularly through 90 days. Potential avenues for improving the value of surgical resection include judicious use of postoperative intensive care and earlier detection and treatment of disease.

Costs Associated With Lobectomy for Lung Cancer: An Analysis Merging STS and Medicare Data.

BACKGROUND: Costs related to care of patients who undergo lobectomy for lung cancer may vary depending on patient, disease, and treating facility characteristics. We aimed to identify underlying case mix factors that contribute to variability of 90-day costs of lobectomy for early-stage lung cancer. METHODS: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database was queried for lobectomy for clinical stage I lung cancer (2008-2013). Demographics, clinical outcomes, and 90-day episode-of-care costs across all care settings were analyzed for patients successfully linked to Medicare data. Hospital costs were estimated from charges using cost-to-charge ratios. Comprehensive regression models were created to identify impact of preoperative patient factors and hospital characteristics on costs, and to delineate additive costs due to perioperative outcomes and complications. RESULTS: The mean 90-day cost for lobectomy was $45,080 ± $38,239. Variables associated with significant additive costs were age greater than or equal to 75 years, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification III or IV, forced expiratory volume in 1 second less than 80% predicted, body mass index less than 18.5 or greater than 35, current or past smoker, cerebrovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, impaired functional status, open thoracotomy, prolonged operative time, government hospitals, metropolitan setting, and geographic location. Patients with 1 or more postoperative complication resulted in an overall mean added cost of $27,259. Added costs increased with the number of complications; isolated recurrent laryngeal nerve paresis ($3,911) and respiratory failure ($35,011) were associated with the least and most additive cost, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Lobectomy is associated with substantial variability of episode-of-care costs. Variability is driven by patient demographic and clinical factors, hospital characteristics, and the occurrence and severity of complications.

Equivalent Survival Between Lobectomy and Segmentectomy for Clinical Stage IA Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: The oncologic efficacy of segmentectomy is controversial. We compared long-term survival in clinical stage IA (T1N0) Medicare patients undergoing lobectomy and segmentectomy in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons database. METHODS: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database was linked to Medicare data in 14,286 lung cancer patients who underwent segmentectomy (n = 1654) or lobectomy (n = 12,632) for clinical stage IA disease from 2002 to 2015. Cox regression was used to create a long-term survival model. Patients were then propensity matched on demographic and clinical variables to derive matched pairs. RESULTS: In Cox modeling segmentectomy was associated with survival similar to lobectomy in the entire cohort (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-1.20; P = .64) and in the matched subcohort. A subanalysis restricted to the 2009 to 2015 population (n = 11,811), when T1a tumors were specified and positron emission tomography results and mediastinal staging procedures were accurately recorded in the database, also showed that segmentectomy and lobectomy continue to have similar survival (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.16). Subanalysis of the pathologic N0 patients demonstrated the same results. CONCLUSIONS: Lobectomy and segmentectomy for early-stage lung cancer are equally effective treatments with similar survival. Surgeons from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons database appear to be selecting patients appropriately for sublobar procedures.

Penetration, Completeness, and Representativeness of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database for Lobectomy.

BACKGROUND: Not all surgeons performing lobectomy in the United States report outcomes to The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database (STS GTSD). We examined penetration, completeness, and representativeness of the STS GTSD for lobectomy in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) patient population. METHODS: The STS GTSD lobectomies from 2002 to 2013 were linked and matched to CMS data using a deterministic matching algorithm. Penetration at center- and patient-level were determined by the number of CMS lobectomy sites and patients, matched to STS GTSD data, divided by the total number of CMS lobectomy sites and patients, respectively. Completeness was defined as the ratio of lobectomies linked to STS GTSD data to the total number of lobectomies. Representativeness was determined by comparing outcomes for patients undergoing lobectomy at matched and unmatched STS GTSD sites. RESULTS: A total of 9,569 centers were included in the study. Center level penetration steadily increased from 1.2% (10 of 859 sites) in 2002 to 25% (169 of 675 sites) in 2013. Patient-level penetration was highest, 38% (4,177 of 11,018), in 2013. Completeness at GTSD sites varied from 59% to 78% over the study period. Postoperative length of stay was longer for nonparticipants than for STS GTSD surgeons (median 6 versus 5 days, p < 0.001); 30-day mortality was higher for nonparticipants than for STS GTSD participants (3.3% versus 1.6%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Participation in the STS GTSD has increased over time, but penetration lags behind that of the other STS National Databases. The STS GTSD participants have superior observed perioperative outcomes for lobectomy compared with nonparticipants. Database participation may reflect high quality care, and ongoing efforts to increase surgeon participation in the STS GTSD should be continued.

Lack of correlation between short- and long-term performance after lung cancer surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Outcomes for lung cancer surgery are currently measured according to perioperative morbidity and mortality. However, the oncologic efficacy of the surgery is reflected by long-term survival. We examined correlation between measures of short-term and long-term performance for lung cancer surgery. METHODS: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database linked to Medicare survival data was queried for pathologic stage I lung cancer resected between 2009 and 2013. Two separate multivariable models were created: (1) short-term: avoidance of perioperative major morbidity and mortality; and (2) long-term: 3-year survival. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons programs (participants) to determine risk-adjusted participant performance measures for the short- and long-term time points. Correlation of participant standardized incidence ratios for short- and long-term performance was assessed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: The study population included 12,596 patients from 229 participating programs. One hundred fifty-one participants met minimum volume and follow-up requirements for analysis. Overall, performance for the short-term measure was uniform with only 2 (1.3%) participants performing better than expected and 2 (1.3%) worse than expected. For the long-term measure, 9 (6%) participants achieved better than expected and 5 (3.3%) worse than expected survival. No participant was an above or below average performer for the short- and long-term measures. Further, no correlation was observed between participant short- and long-term performance (Pearson correlation coefficient, 0.12; 95% confidence interval, -0.04 to 0.28; P = .14). CONCLUSIONS: Avoidance of perioperative morbidity and mortality is an incomplete measure of performance in lung cancer surgery. Lung cancer surgery performance metrics should assess the safety of surgery and long-term survival.

Aprotinin does not increase the risk of renal failure in cardiac surgery patients.

BACKGROUND: Aprotinin is frequently used in high-risk cardiac surgery patients to decrease bleeding complications and transfusions of packed red blood cells (PRBC). Transfusions of PRBC are known to directly increase the risk of new onset postoperative renal failure (ARF) in cardiac surgery patients. A recent highly publicized report implicated aprotinin as an independent causal factor for postoperative renal failure, but ignored the potential confounding affect of numerical PRBC data on ARF. We sought to investigate that claim with an analysis that included all perioperative risk factors for renal failure, including PRBC transfusion data. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospectively collected patient data from 12 centers contributing to the Merged Cardiac Registry, an international multicenter cardiac surgery database, operated on between January 2000 and February 2006 were retrospectively analyzed. A previously published risk model for ARF incorporating 12 variables was used to calculate a baseline ARF risk score for each patient in whom those variables were available (n=15,174). After adding transfused PRBC data 11,198 patients remained for risk-adjusted assessment of ARF in relation to aprotinin use. Risk-adjusted multivariable analyses were carried out with, and without, consideration of transfused PRBC. Aprotinin was used in 24.6% (2757/11,198). The overall incidence of ARF was 1.6% (180/11,198) and was higher in the aprotinin subset (2.6%, 72/2757 versus 1.3%, 108/8441; P<0.001). The incidence of ARF directly and significantly increased with increasing transfusions of PRBC (P<0.001). Risk-adjusted analysis without transfused PRBC in the model suggests that aprotinin significantly impacts ARF (P=0.008; OR=1.5). However, further risk adjustment with the addition of the highly significant transfused PRBC variable (P<0.0001; OR=1.23/transfused PRBC) to the model attenuates the purported independent affect of aprotinin (P=0.231) on ARF. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in renal failure seen in patients who were administered aprotinin was directly related to increased number of transfusions in that high-risk patient population. Aprotinin use does not independently increase the risk of renal failure in cardiac surgery patients.

Prediction of Long-Term Survival After Lung Cancer Surgery for Elderly Patients in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database.

BACKGROUND: Prior risk models using the STS General Thoracic Surgery database (STS-GTSD) have been limited to 30-day outcomes. We have now linked STS data to Medicare data and sought to create a risk prediction model for long-term mortality after lung cancer resection in patients older than 65 years. METHODS: The STS-GTSD was linked to Medicare data for lung cancer resections from 2002 to 2013 as previously reported. Successful linkage was performed in 29,899 lung cancer resection patients. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to create a long-term survival model. Variable selection was performed using statistically significant univariate factors and known clinical predictors of outcome. Calibration was assessed by dividing the cohort into deciles of predicted survival and discrimination assessed with a C-statistic corrected for optimism via 1,000 bootstrap replications. RESULTS: Median age was 73 years (interquartile range, 68 to 78 years), and 48% of the patients were male. Of the 29,094 patients with nonmissing pathologic stage, 69% were stage I, 18% stage II, 11% stage III, and 2% stage IV. Procedure performed was lobectomy in 69%, bilobectomy in 3%, pneumonectomy in 3%, segmentectomy in 7%, sleeve lobectomy in 1%, and wedge resection in 17%. Thoracoscopic approach was performed in 47% of resections. The final Cox model reveals that stage and age are the strongest predictors of long-term survival. Even after controlling for stage, wedge resection, segmentectomy, bilobectomy, and pneumonectomy are all associated with increased hazard of death in comparison with lobectomy. Thoracoscopic approach is associated with improved long-term survival in comparison with thoracotomy. Other modifiable predictive factors include smoking and low body mass index. Calibration of the model demonstrates excellent performance across all survival deciles and a C-statistic of 0.694. CONCLUSIONS: The STS-GTSD-Medicare long-term risk model includes several novel factors associated with mortality. Although medical factors predict long-term survival, age and stage are the strong predictors. Despite this, procedure choice and thoracoscopic/open approach are potentially modifiable predictors of long-term survival after lung cancer resection.

Differential effects of operative complications on survival after surgery for primary lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Complications adversely affect survival after lung cancer surgery. We tested the hypothesis that effects of complications after lung cancer surgery on survival vary substantially across the spectrum of postoperative complications. METHODS: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database was linked to Medicare data for lung cancer resections from 2002 through 2013. Linkage was achieved for 29,899 patients. A survival model was created that included operative complications as explanatory variables and adjusted for relevant baseline covariates. Because of violation of the proportional hazard assumption, we used time-varying coefficient Cox modeling for the complication variables. RESULTS: Median patient age was 73 years, and 48% were male. Procedures performed were lobectomy in 69%, wedge in 17%, segmentectomy in 7%, bilobectomy in 3%, pneumonectomy in 3%, and sleeve lobectomy in 1%. Most frequent complications were atrial arrhythmia (14%), pneumonia (4.3%), reintubation (3.8%), delirium (2%), and acute kidney injury (1.4%). In the early period (0-90 days), 12 complications are associated with worse survival. From 3 to 18 months after surgery, only 4 complications are associated with survival: delirium, blood transfusion, reintubation, and pneumonia. After 18 months, only sepsis and blood transfusion are associated with a significant late hazard. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis confirmed the presence of differential magnitude and time-varying effects on survival of individual complications after lung cancer surgery. We conclude that the derived time-dependent hazard ratios can serve as objective weights in future models that enhance performance measurement and focus attention on prevention and management of complications with greatest effects.

Minimally Invasive Lung Cancer Surgery Performed by Thoracic Surgeons as Effective as Thoracotomy.

Purpose The prevalence of minimally invasive lung cancer surgery using video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) has increased dramatically over the past decade, yet recent studies have suggested that the lymph node evaluation during VATS lobectomy is inadequate. We hypothesized that the minimally invasive approach to lobectomy for stage I lung cancer resulted in a longitudinal outcome that was not inferior to thoracotomy. Patients and Methods Patients > 65 years of age who had undergone lobectomy for stage I lung cancer between 2002 and 2013 were analyzed within the Society of Thoracic Surgeons General Thoracic Surgery Database, which had been linked to Medicare data, as part of a retrospective-cohort, noninferiority study. Results A total of 10,597 patients with clinical stage I lung cancer who underwent lobectomy were evaluated (4,448 patients underwent thoracotomy, and 6,149 underwent VATS). VATS patients had a more favorable distribution of all health-related variables, including pulmonary function (59% of VATS patients had intact spirometry v 51% of thoracotomy patients; P < .001). Cox proportional hazards models were performed over two eras to account for an evolving practice standard. The mortality risk associated with the VATS approach was not greater than thoracotomy in either the earlier era (2002 to 2008; hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.87 to 1.09; P = .62) or the more recent era (2009 to 2013; hazard ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.93; P < .001). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates of 2,901 propensity-matched VATS-thoracotomy pairs demonstrated that the 4-year survival associated with VATS (68.6%) was modestly superior to thoracotomy (64.8%; P = .003). The analyses detailed above were replicated in a separate cohort of pathologic stage I patients with similar findings. Conclusion The long-term efficacy of lobectomy for stage I lung cancer performed using the VATS approach by board-certified thoracic surgeons does not seem to be inferior to that of thoracotomy.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2018 Adult Cardiac Surgery Risk Models: Part 1-Background, Design Considerations, and Model Development.

BACKGROUND: The last published version of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) risk models were developed in 2008 based on patient data from 2002 to 2006 and have been periodically recalibrated. In response to evolving changes in patient characteristics, risk profiles, surgical practice, and outcomes, the STS has now developed a set of entirely new risk models for adult cardiac surgery. METHODS: New models were estimated for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG [n = 439,092]), isolated aortic or mitral valve surgery (n = 150,150), and combined valve plus CABG procedures (n = 81,588). The development set was based on July 2011 to June 2014 STS ACSD data; validation was performed using July 2014 to December 2016 data. Separate models were developed for operative mortality, stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, reoperation, composite major morbidity or mortality, and prolonged or short postoperative length of stay. Because of its low occurrence rate, a combined model incorporating all operative types was developed for deep sternal wound infection/mediastinitis. RESULTS: Calibration was excellent except for the deep sternal wound infection/mediastinitis model, which slightly underestimated risk because of higher rates of this endpoint in the more recent validation data; this will be recalibrated in each feedback report. Discrimination (c-index) of all models was superior to that of 2008 models except for the stroke model for valve patients. CONCLUSIONS: Completely new STS ACSD risk models have been developed based on contemporary patient data; their performance is superior to that of previous STS ACSD models.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2018 Adult Cardiac Surgery Risk Models: Part 2-Statistical Methods and Results.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) uses statistical models to create risk-adjusted performance metrics for Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) participants. Because of temporal changes in patient characteristics and outcomes, evolution of surgical practice, and additional risk factors available in recent ACSD versions, completely new risk models have been developed. METHODS: Using July 2011 to June 2014 ACSD data, risk models were developed for operative mortality, stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, reoperation, major morbidity or mortality composite, prolonged postoperative length of stay, and short postoperative length of stay among patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (n = 439,092), aortic or mitral valve surgery (n = 150,150), or combined valve plus coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (n = 81,588). Separate models were developed for each procedure and endpoint except mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, which was analyzed in a combined model because of its infrequency. A surgeon panel selected predictors by assessing model performance and clinical face validity of full and progressively more parsimonious models. The ACSD data (July 2014 to December 2016) were used to assess model calibration and to compare discrimination with previous STS risk models. RESULTS: Calibration in the validation sample was excellent for all models except mediastinitis/deep sternal wound infection, which slightly underestimated risk and will be recalibrated in feedback reports. The c-indices of new models exceeded those of the last published STS models for all populations and endpoints except stroke in valve patients. CONCLUSIONS: New STS ACSD risk models have generally excellent calibration and discrimination and are well suited for risk adjustment of STS performance metrics.