Stillbirth and early neonatal mortality rates may be underestimated using recall information: A comparison of demographic surveillance methodologies.

OBJECTIVE: Child mortality and stillbirth rates (SBR) remain high in low-income countries but may be underestimated due to incomplete reporting of child deaths in retrospective pregnancy/birth histories. The aim of this study is to compare stillbirth and mortality estimates derived using two different methods: the method assuming full information and the prospective method. METHODS: Bandim Health Project's Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) follows women of reproductive age and children under five through routine home visits every 1, 2 or 6 months. Between 2012 and 2020, we estimated and compared early neonatal (ENMR, <7 days), neonatal (NMR, <28 days), and infant mortality (IMR, <1 year) per 1000 live births and SBR per 1000 births. Risk time for children born to registered women was calculated from birth (the method assuming full information) versus date of first observation in the HDSS (the prospective method), either at birth (for pregnancy registration) or registration. Rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and compared in generalised linear models allowing for within-child correlation obtaining relative risks (RR). RESULTS: We registered and followed 29,413 infants (1380 deaths; 1459 stillbirths) prospectively. An additional 164 infant deaths and 129 stillbirths were registered retrospectively and included in the method assuming full information. The ENMR was 24.5 (95%CI: 22.6-26.4) for the method assuming full information and 25.8 (23.7-27.8) for the prospective method, RR = 0.96 (0.93-0.99). Differences were smaller for the NMRs and IMRs. For SBRs, the estimates were 53.5 (50.9-56.0) and 58.6 (55.7-61.5); RR = 0.91 (0.90-0.93). The difference between methods became more pronounced when the analysis was limited to areas visited every 6 months: RR for ENMR: 0.91 (0.86-0.96) and RR for SBR: 0.85 (0.83-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Assuming full information underestimates SBR and ENMR. Accounting for omissions of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths may lead to more accurate estimates and improved ability to monitor mortality.

Implementation of the vaccination program in Guinea-Bissau: Coverage and missed opportunities for BCG at birth.

BACKGROUND: The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is recommended at birth in Guinea-Bissau but often given with delay. Delays are not evident in routine coverage estimates since coverage is measured by 12 months of age. Studies show that BCG protects against other infections than tuberculosis and lowers neonatal mortality. Hence, the timing of BCG is important since the children should benefit from these non-specific effects as early as possible. METHODS: Using data from a nationally representative health and demographic surveillance system in Guinea-Bissau, we assessed BCG coverage at birth (within the first 3 days of life), 1 month, and 12 months for children born in 2013-19. We measured the proportion of children who had a documented health system contact within the first 3 days of life, thus an opportunity for BCG at birth, and whether the opportunities were utilized. In binomial regression models, we investigated factors associated with missed opportunities for vaccination. RESULTS: Among the 22,178 children only 19 % were vaccinated at birth. By 1 month and 12 months, BCG coverages were 64 % and 93 %. The timeliness of BCG improved over time, with coverage at birth increasing from 16 % in 2013 to 25 % in 2019 and 1-month coverage from 63 % in 2013 to 75 % in 2019. If all vaccination opportunities had been utilized, the BCG coverage at birth could have reached 45 % (in the 1-month cohort) instead of the actual coverage of 19 %, as only 40 % of the vaccination opportunities were utilized. Region of residence was associated with having a missed opportunity for vaccination. CONCLUSION: The high coverage estimates at 12 months falsely imply that the vaccine is being administered according to the recommended schedule. Our findings suggest that early coverage could be markedly improved by ensuring that children are vaccinated at their first contact with the health system.