Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Pathogens on Plant Performance: A Global Meta-Analysis.

Plant health is increasingly threatened by abiotic and biotic stressors linked to anthropogenic global change. These stressors are frequently studied in isolation. However, they might have non-additive (antagonistic or synergistic) interactive effects that affect plant communities in unexpected ways. We conducted a global meta-analysis to summarize existing evidence on the joint effects of climate change (drought and warming) and biotic attack (pathogens) on plant performance. We also investigated the effect of drought and warming on pathogen performance, as this information is crucial for a mechanistic interpretation of potential indirect effects of climate change on plant performance mediated by pathogens. The final databases included 1230 pairwise cases extracted from 117 recently published scientific articles (from 2006) on a global scale. We found that the combined negative effects of drought and pathogens on plant growth were lower than expected based on their main effects, supporting the existence of antagonistic interactions. Thus, the larger the magnitude of the drought, the lower the pathogen capacity to limit plant growth. On the other hand, the combination of warming and pathogens caused larger plant damage than expected, supporting the existence of synergistic interactions. Our results on the effects of drought and warming on pathogens revealed a limitation of their growth rates and abundance in vitro but an improvement under natural conditions, where multiple factors operate across the microbiome. Further research on the impact of climate change on traits explicitly defining the infective ability of pathogens would enhance the assessment of its indirect effects on plants. The evaluated plant and pathogen responses were conditioned by the intensity of drought or warming and by moderator categorical variables defining the pathosystems. Overall, our findings reveal the need to incorporate the joint effect of climatic and biotic components of global change into predictive models of plant performance to identify non-additive interactions.

Net plant interactions are highly variable and weakly dependent on climate at the global scale.

Although plant-plant interactions (i.e. competition and facilitation) have long been recognised as key drivers of plant community composition and dynamics, their global patterns and relationships with climate have remained unclear. Here, we assembled a global database of 10,502 pairs of empirical data from the literature to address the patterns of and climatic effects on the net outcome of plant interactions in natural communities. We found that plant interactions varied among plant performance indicators, interaction types and biomes, yet competition occurred more frequently than facilitation in plant communities worldwide. Unexpectedly, plant interactions showed weak latitudinal pattern and were weakly related to climate. Our study provides a global comprehensive overview of plant interactions, highlighting competition as a fundamental mechanism structuring plant communities worldwide. We suggest that further investigations should focus more on local factors (e.g. microclimate, soil and disturbance) than on macroclimate to identify key environmental determinants of interactions in plant communities.

The Hierarchy-of-Hypotheses Approach: A Synthesis Method for Enhancing Theory Development in Ecology and Evolution.

In the current era of Big Data, existing synthesis tools such as formal meta-analyses are critical means to handle the deluge of information. However, there is a need for complementary tools that help to (a) organize evidence, (b) organize theory, and (c) closely connect evidence to theory. We present the hierarchy-of-hypotheses (HoH) approach to address these issues. In an HoH, hypotheses are conceptually and visually structured in a hierarchically nested way where the lower branches can be directly connected to empirical results. Used for organizing evidence, this tool allows researchers to conceptually connect empirical results derived through diverse approaches and to reveal under which circumstances hypotheses are applicable. Used for organizing theory, it allows researchers to uncover mechanistic components of hypotheses and previously neglected conceptual connections. In the present article, we offer guidance on how to build an HoH, provide examples from population and evolutionary biology and propose terminological clarifications.

Soil-borne pathogens as determinants of regeneration patterns at community level in Mediterranean forests.

Emergent diseases are an increasing problem in forests worldwide. Exotic pathogens are now threatening forests where pathogens have not traditionally been considered to be major ecological drivers of tree demography, such as water-limited Mediterranean forests. However, how pathogens might limit regeneration in invaded forests is largely unknown. Here we used fungicide to analyse the impact of soil-borne oomycete pathogens on seedling establishment at community level in Mediterranean forests invaded by the exotic oomycete Phytophthora cinnamomi. Fungicide effects were modelled as a function of the tree neighbourhood composition, the seed mass of the target species, and the abiotic environment. Fungicide application had positive effects on seedling performance that varied in magnitude and spatial structure among coexisting species. Seed mass predicted fungicide effects on seedling emergence, but not on survival or growth. Positive fungicide effects were modulated by levels of abiotic resources, mainly water, increasing with soil moisture. Our results support a novel role for soil-borne oomycete pathogens as one more axis of the regeneration niche of woody species in water-limited forests. Given the increasing numbers of exotic oomycete pathogens worldwide, more research is needed to understand the role of this relevant microbial group as a factor shaping seedling establishment.

A conceptual map of invasion biology: Integrating hypotheses into a consensus network.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Since its emergence in the mid-20th century, invasion biology has matured into a productive research field addressing questions of fundamental and applied importance. Not only has the number of empirical studies increased through time, but also has the number of competing, overlapping and, in some cases, contradictory hypotheses about biological invasions. To make these contradictions and redundancies explicit, and to gain insight into the field's current theoretical structure, we developed and applied a Delphi approach to create a consensus network of 39 existing invasion hypotheses. RESULTS: The resulting network was analysed with a link-clustering algorithm that revealed five concept clusters (resource availability, biotic interaction, propagule, trait and Darwin's clusters) representing complementary areas in the theory of invasion biology. The network also displays hypotheses that link two or more clusters, called connecting hypotheses, which are important in determining network structure. The network indicates hypotheses that are logically linked either positively (77 connections of support) or negatively (that is, they contradict each other; 6 connections). SIGNIFICANCE: The network visually synthesizes how invasion biology's predominant hypotheses are conceptually related to each other, and thus, reveals an emergent structure - a conceptual map - that can serve as a navigation tool for scholars, practitioners and students, both inside and outside of the field of invasion biology, and guide the development of a more coherent foundation of theory. Additionally, the outlined approach can be more widely applied to create a conceptual map for the larger fields of ecology and biogeography.

Plant-soil feedbacks in declining forests: implications for species coexistence.

Plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) play a relevant role as drivers of species abundance, coexistence, and succession in plant communities. However, the potential contribution of PSFs to community dynamics in changing forest ecosystems affected by global change drivers is still largely unexplored. We measured the direction, strength and nature (biological vs. chemical) of PSFs experienced by coexisting tree species in two types of declining Quercus suber forests of southwestern Spain (open woodland vs. closed forest) invaded by the exotic soil pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi. To test PSFs in a realistic community context, we focused not only on individual PSFs (i.e., comparing the growth of a tree species on conspecific vs. heterospecific soil) but also calculated net-pairwise PSFs by comparing performance of coexisting tree species on their own and each other's soils. We hypothesized that the decline and death of Q. suber would alter the direction and strength of individual and net-pairwise PSFs due to the associated changes in soil nutrients and microbial communities, with implications for recruitment dynamics and species coexistence. In support of our hypothesis, we found that the decline of Q. suber translated into substantial alterations of individual and net-pairwise PSFs, which shifted from mostly neutral to significantly positive or negative, depending on the forest type. In both cases however the identified PSFs benefited other species more than Q. suber (i.e., heterospecific positive PSF in the open woodland, conspecific negative PSF in the closed forest). Our results supported PSFs driven by changes in chemical soil properties (mainly phosphorus) and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, but not in pathogen abundance. Overall, our study suggests that PSFs might reinforce the loss of dominance of Q. suber in declining forests invaded by P. cinnamomi by promoting the relative performance of non-declining coexisting species. More generally, our results indicate an increase in the strength of net PSFs as natural forests become disturbed by global change drivers (e.g., invasive species), suggesting an increasingly important role of PSFs in forest community dynamics in the near future.

RecruitNet: A global database of plant recruitment networks.

Plant recruitment interactions (i.e., what recruits under what) shape the composition, diversity, and structure of plant communities. Despite the huge body of knowledge on the mechanisms underlying recruitment interactions among species, we still know little about the structure of the recruitment networks emerging in ecological communities. Modeling and analyzing the community-level structure of plant recruitment interactions as a complex network can provide relevant information on ecological and evolutionary processes acting both at the species and ecosystem levels. We report a data set containing 143 plant recruitment networks in 23 countries across five continents, including temperate and tropical ecosystems. Each network identifies the species under which another species recruits. All networks report the number of recruits (i.e., individuals) per species. The data set includes >850,000 recruiting individuals involved in 118,411 paired interactions among 3318 vascular plant species across the globe. The cover of canopy species and open ground is also provided. Three sampling protocols were used: (1) The Recruitment Network (RN) protocol (106 networks) focuses on interactions among established plants ("canopy species") and plants in their early stages of recruitment ("recruit species"). A series of plots was delimited within a locality, and all the individuals recruiting and their canopy species were identified; (2) The paired Canopy-Open (pCO) protocol (26 networks) consists in locating a potential canopy plant and identifying recruiting individuals under the canopy and in a nearby open space of the same area; (3) The Georeferenced plot (GP) protocol (11 networks) consists in using information from georeferenced individual plants in large plots to infer canopy-recruit interactions. Some networks incorporate data for both herbs and woody species, whereas others focus exclusively on woody species. The location of each study site, geographical coordinates, country, locality, responsible author, sampling dates, sampling method, and life habits of both canopy and recruit species are provided. This database will allow researchers to test ecological, biogeographical, and evolutionary hypotheses related to plant recruitment interactions. There are no copyright restrictions on the data set; please cite this data paper when using these data in publications.

Phylogenetic relatedness as a tool in restoration ecology: a meta-analysis.

Biotic interactions assembling plant communities can be positive (facilitation) or negative (competition) and operate simultaneously. Facilitative interactions and posterior competition are among the mechanisms triggering succession, thus representing a good scenario for ecological restoration. As distantly related species tend to have different phenotypes, and therefore different ecological requirements, they can coexist, maximizing facilitation and minimizing competition. We suggest including phylogenetic relatedness together with phenotypic information as a predictor for the net effects of the balance between facilitation and competition in nurse-based restoration experiments. We quantify, by means of a Bayesian meta-analysis of nurse-based restoration experiments performed worldwide, the importance of phylogenetic relatedness and life-form disparity in the survival, growth and density of facilitated plants. We find that the more similar the life forms of neighbouring plants are the greater the positive effect of phylogenetic distance is on survival and density. This result suggests that other characteristics beyond life form are also contained in the phylogeny, and the larger the phylogenetic distance, the less is the niche overlap, and therefore the less is the competition. As a general rule, we can maximize the success of the nurse-based practices by increasing life-form disparity and phylogenetic distances between the neighbour and the facilitated plant.

Spatial patterns of soil pathogens in declining Mediterranean forests: implications for tree species regeneration.

Soil-borne pathogens are a key component of the belowground community because of the significance of their ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, very little is known about the complexity of their distribution patterns in natural systems. Here, we explored the patterns, causes and ecological consequences of spatial variability in pathogen abundance in Mediterranean forests affected by oak decline. We used spatially explicit neighborhood models to predict the abundance of soil-borne pathogen species (Phytophthora cinnamomi, Pythium spiculum and Pythium spp.) as a function of local abiotic conditions (soil texture) and the characteristics of the tree and shrub neighborhoods (species composition, size and health status). The implications of pathogen abundance for tree seedling performance were explored by conducting a sowing experiment in the same locations in which pathogen abundance was quantified. Pathogen abundance in the forest soil was not randomly distributed, but exhibited spatially predictable patterns influenced by both abiotic and, particularly, biotic factors (tree and shrub species). Pathogen abundance reduced seedling emergence and survival, but not in all sites or tree species. Our findings suggest that heterogeneous spatial patterns of pathogen abundance at fine spatial scale can be important for the dynamics and restoration of declining Mediterranean forests.

Non-linear effects of drought under shade: reconciling physiological and ecological models in plant communities.

The combined effects of shade and drought on plant performance and the implications for species interactions are highly debated in plant ecology. Empirical evidence for positive and negative effects of shade on the performance of plants under dry conditions supports two contrasting theoretical models about the role of shade under dry conditions: the trade-off and the facilitation hypotheses. We performed a meta-analysis of field and greenhouse studies evaluating the effects of drought at two or more irradiance levels on nine response variables describing plant physiological condition, growth, and survival. We explored differences in plant response across plant functional types, ecosystem types and methodological approaches. The data were best fit using quadratic models indicating a humped-back shape response to drought along an irradiance gradient for survival, whole plant biomass, maximum photosynthetic capacity, stomatal conductance and maximal photochemical efficiency. Drought effects were ameliorated at intermediate irradiance, becoming more severe at higher or lower light levels. This general pattern was maintained when controlling for potential variations in the strength of the drought treatment among light levels. Our quantitative meta-analysis indicates that dense shade ameliorates drought especially among drought-intolerant and shade-tolerant species. Wet tropical species showed larger negative effects of drought with increasing irradiance than semiarid and cold temperate species. Non-linear responses to irradiance were stronger under field conditions than under controlled greenhouse conditions. Non-linear responses to drought along the irradiance gradient reconciliate opposing views in plant ecology, indicating that facilitation is more likely within certain range of environmental conditions, fading under deep shade, especially for drought-tolerant species.

Disentangling the role of oomycete soil pathogens as drivers of plant-soil feedbacks.

Interactions among plant species and their soil biota drive plant-soil feedbacks (PSFs) that play a major role in the dynamics and diversity of plant communities. Among the different components of the soil community, pathogens are considered to be the main drivers of negative PSFs. Despite this, the number of studies that have experimentally quantified the contribution of soil pathogens to PSFs remains considerably low. Here we conducted a greenhouse experiment with oomycete-specific fungicide to quantify the contribution of soil pathogens, and particularly oomycete pathogens, to individual and pairwise PSFs in forest communities. We used as a case study Mediterranean mixed forests dominated by Quercus suber and invaded by the oomycete pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi. The fungicide treatment was crossed with a competition treatment to explore how conspecific neighbors might modify pathogen effects. To place the results of the experiment in a wider context, we also conducted a systematic review of published papers that explicitly used fungicide to explore the role of pathogens in PSF experiments. Our experimental results showed that oomycete pathogens were the main drivers of individual PSFs in the study forests. Oomycete effects varied among tree species according to their susceptibility to P. cinnamomi, driving negative PSFs in the highly susceptible Q. suber but not in the coexistent Olea europaea. Oomycete-driven PSFs were not modified by intraspecific competition. Oomycete pathogens were also major contributors to negative pairwise PSFs assumed to promote species coexistence. Results from the systematic review supported the novelty of our experimental results, since only three studies had previously used oomycete-specific fungicide in a PSF context and none in systems invaded by exotic oomycetes. Overall, our results provide novel evidence of oomycete pathogens (including the exotic P. cinnamomi) as fundamental drivers of negative individual and pairwise PSFs with implications for species coexistence in invaded communities. Although in the short-term invasive pathogens might contribute to species coexistence by causing self-limitation in dominant species, strong inter-specific variation in self-limitation might undermine coexistence in the long-term. Because of the increasing number of exotic oomycetes worldwide, further attention should be given to oomycetes as drivers of PSFs in plant communities.

An excess of niche differences maximizes ecosystem functioning.

Ecologists have long argued that higher functioning in diverse communities arises from the niche differences stabilizing species coexistence and from the fitness differences driving competitive dominance. However, rigorous tests are lacking. We couple field-parameterized models of competition between 10 annual plant species with a biodiversity-functioning experiment under two contrasting environmental conditions, to study how coexistence determinants link to biodiversity effects (selection and complementarity). We find that complementarity effects positively correlate with niche differences and selection effects differences correlate with fitness differences. However, niche differences also contribute to selection effects and fitness differences to complementarity effects. Despite this complexity, communities with an excess of niche differences (where niche differences exceeded those needed for coexistence) produce more biomass and have faster decomposition rates under drought, but do not take up nutrients more rapidly. We provide empirical evidence that the mechanisms determining coexistence correlate with those maximizing ecosystem functioning.

Are pine plantations valid tools for restoring Mediterranean forests? An assessment along abiotic and biotic gradients.

The ecological impacts of forest plantations are a focus of intense debate, from studies that consider plantations as "biological deserts" to studies showing positive effects on plant diversity and dynamics. This lack of consensus might be influenced by the scarcity of studies that examine how the ecological characteristics of plantations vary along abiotic and biotic gradients. Here we conducted a large-scale assessment of plant regeneration and diversity in plantations of southern Spain. Tree seedling and sapling density, plant species richness, and Shannon's (H') diversity index were analyzed in 442 pine plantation plots covering a wide gradient of climatic conditions, stand density, and distance to natural forests that act as seed sources. Pronounced variation in regeneration and diversity was found in plantation understories along the gradients explored. Low- to mid-altitude plantations showed a diverse and abundant seedling bank dominated by Quercus ilex, whereas high-altitude plantations showed a virtually monospecific seeding bank of Pinus sylvestris. Regeneration was null in plantations with stand densities exceeding 1500 pines/ha. Moderate plantation densities (500-1000 pines/ha) promoted recruitment in comparison to low or null canopy cover, suggesting the existence of facilitative interactions. Quercus ilex recruitment diminished exponentially with distance to the nearest Q. ilex forest. Richness and H' index values showed a hump-shaped distribution along the altitudinal and radiation gradients and decreased monotonically along the stand density gradient. From a management perspective, different strategies will be necessary depending on where a plantation lies along the gradients explored. Active management will be required in high-density plantations with arrested succession and low diversity. Thinning could redirect plantations toward more natural densities where facilitation predominates. Passive management might be recommended for low- to moderate-density plantations with active successional dynamics (e.g., toward oak or pine-oak forests at low to mid altitudes). Enrichment planting will be required to overcome seed limitation, especially in plantations far from natural forests. We conclude that plantations should be perceived as dynamic systems where successional trajectories and diversity levels are determined by abiotic constraints, complex balances of competitive and facilitative interactions, the spatial configuration of native seed sources, and species life-history traits.

Functional traits and phenotypic plasticity modulate species coexistence across contrasting climatic conditions.

Functional traits are expected to modulate plant competitive dynamics. However, how traits and their plasticity in response to contrasting environments connect with the mechanisms determining species coexistence remains poorly understood. Here, we couple field experiments under two contrasting climatic conditions to a plant population model describing competitive dynamics between 10 annual plant species in order to evaluate how 19 functional traits, covering physiological, morphological and reproductive characteristics, are associated with species' niche and fitness differences. We find a rich diversity of univariate and multidimensional associations, which highlight the primary role of traits related to water- and light-use-efficiency for modulating the determinants of competitive outcomes. Importantly, such traits and their plasticity promote species coexistence across climatic conditions by enhancing stabilizing niche differences and by generating competitive trade-offs between species. Our study represents a significant advance showing how leading dimensions of plant function connect to the mechanisms determining the maintenance of biodiversity.

Drought modulates interactions between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity and barley genotype diversity.

Droughts associated with climate change alter ecosystem functions, especially in systems characterized by low biodiversity, such as agricultural fields. Management strategies aimed at buffering climate change effects include the enhancement of intraspecific crop diversity as well as the diversity of beneficial interactions with soil biota, such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). However, little is known about reciprocal relations of crop and AMF diversity under drought conditions. To explore the interactive effects of plant genotype richness and AMF richness on plant yield under ambient and drought conditions, we established fully crossed diversity gradients in experimental microcosms. We expected highest crop yield and drought tolerance at both high barley and AMF diversity. While barley richness and AMF richness altered the performance of both barley and AMF, they did not mitigate detrimental drought effects on the plant and AMF. Root biomass increased with mycorrhiza colonization rate at high AMF richness and low barley richness. AMF performance increased under higher richness of both barley and AMF. Our findings indicate that antagonistic interactions between barley and AMF may occur under drought conditions, particularly so at higher AMF richness. These results suggest that unexpected alterations of plant-soil biotic interactions could occur under climate change.

Differential light responses of Mediterranean tree saplings: linking ecophysiology with regeneration niche in four co-occurring species.

The ecophysiological mechanisms underlying plant-plant interactions and forest regeneration processes in Mediterranean ecosystems are poorly understood, and the experimental evidence for the role of light availability in these processes is particularly scant. We analyzed the effects of high and low irradiances on 31 ecological, morphological and physiological variables in saplings of four late-successional Mediterranean trees, two deciduous (Acer opalus subsp. granatense (Boiss.) Font Quer & Rothm. and Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) and two evergreen (Pinus nigra Arnold subsp. salzmannii (Dunal) Franco and Quercus ilex L.), which coexist in mature montane forests. Species differed in both their capacity to withstand high radiation and in their shade tolerance. The two deciduous species were the least tolerant to high radiation, exhibiting both dynamic and chronic photoinhibition in full sunlight, with severe implications for gas exchange and photosynthetic performance. Excess light severely limited the survival of A. opalus subsp. granatense, even minor reductions of excessive radiation (from full sunlight to 80% sunlight) being crucial for sapling survival. Among species, P. nigra was the most tolerant of high irradiances but showed the poorest shade acclimation. Interspecific differences in the mechanisms of response to light provide a partial explanation of the differential regeneration patterns previously reported for these species, with shade-tolerant plants (i.e., deciduous broadleaf species) benefiting the most from associations with nurse plants. We conclude that light availability is an important environmental factor defining the regeneration niche of Mediterranean woody species.

A neighborhood analysis of the consequences of Quercus suber decline for regeneration dynamics in Mediterranean forests.

In forests, the vulnerable seedling stage is largely influenced by the canopy, which modifies the surrounding environment. Consequently, any alteration in the characteristics of the canopy, such as those promoted by forest dieback, might impact regeneration dynamics. Our work analyzes the interaction between canopy neighbors and seedlings in Mediterranean forests affected by the decline of their dominant species (Quercus suber). Our objective was to understand how the impacts of neighbor trees and shrubs on recruitment could affect future dynamics of these declining forests. Seeds of the three dominant tree species (Quercus suber, Olea europaea and Quercus canariensis) were sown in six sites during two consecutive years. Using a spatially-explicit, neighborhood approach we developed models that explained the observed spatial variation in seedling emergence, survival, growth and photochemical efficiency as a function of the size, identity, health, abundance and distribution of adult trees and shrubs in the neighborhood. We found strong neighborhood effects for all the performance estimators, particularly seedling emergence and survival. Tree neighbors positively affected emergence, independently of species identity or health. Alternatively, seedling survival was much lower in neighborhoods dominated by defoliated and dead Q. suber trees than in neighborhoods dominated by healthy trees. For the two oak species, these negative effects were consistent over the three years of the experimental seedlings. These results indicate that ongoing changes in species' relative abundance and canopy trees' health might alter the successional trajectories of Mediterranean oak-forests through neighbor-specific impacts on seedlings. The recruitment failure of dominant late-successional oaks in the gaps opened after Q. suber death would indirectly favor the establishment of other coexisting woody species, such as drought-tolerant shrubs. This could lead current forests to shift into open systems with lower tree cover. Adult canopy decline would therefore represent an additional factor threatening the recruitment of Quercus forests worldwide.

Testing predictions of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence for distance- and density-dependent seed and seedling survival.

The Janzen-Connell hypothesis proposes that specialist natural enemies, such as herbivores and pathogens, maintain diversity in plant communities by reducing survival rates of conspecific seeds and seedlings located close to reproductive adults or in areas of high conspecific density. Variation in the strength of distance- and density-dependent effects is hypothesized to explain variation in plant species richness along climatic gradients, with effects predicted to be stronger in the tropics than the temperate zone and in wetter habitats compared to drier habitats.We conducted a comprehensive literature search to identify peer-reviewed experimental studies published in the 40+ years since the hypothesis was first proposed. Using data from these studies, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the current weight of evidence for the distance and density predictions of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis.Overall, we found significant support for both the distance- and density-dependent predictions. For all studies combined, survival rates were significantly reduced near conspecifics compared to far from conspecifics, and in areas with high densities of conspecifics compared to areas with low conspecific densities. There was no indication that these results were due to publication bias.The strength of distance and density effects varied widely among studies. Contrary to expectations, this variation was unrelated to latitude, and there was no significant effect of study region. However, we did find a trend for stronger distance and density dependence in wetter sites compared to sites with lower annual precipitation. In addition, effects were significantly stronger at the seedling stage compared to the seed stage.Synthesis. Our study provides support for the idea that distance- and density-dependent mortality occurs in plant communities world-wide. Available evidence suggests that natural enemies are frequently the cause of such patterns, consistent with the Janzen-Connell hypothesis, but additional studies are needed to rule out other mechanisms (e.g. intraspecific competition). With the widespread existence of density and distance dependence clearly established, future research should focus on assessing the degree to which these effects permit species coexistence and contribute to the maintenance of diversity in plant communities.

Patterns and drivers of tree mortality in iberian forests: climatic effects are modified by competition.

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information from c. 400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions.