War and Health Care Services Utilization for Chronic Diseases in Rural and Semiurban Areas of Tigray, Ethiopia.

Importance: The war in Tigray, Ethiopia, has disrupted the health care system of the region. However, its association with health care services disruption for chronic diseases has not been well documented. Objective: To assess the association of the war with the utilization of health care services for patients with chronic diseases. Design, Setting, and Participants: Of 135 primary health care facilities, a registry-based cross-sectional study was conducted on 44 rural and semiurban facilities of Tigray. Data on health services utilization were extracted for patients with tuberculosis, HIV, diabetes, hypertension, and psychiatric disorders in the prewar period (September 1, to October 31, 2020) and during the first phase of the war period (November 4, 2020, to June 30, 2021). Main Outcomes and Measures: Records on the number of follow-up, laboratory tests, and patients undergoing treatment of the aforementioned chronic diseases were counted during the prewar and war periods. Results: Of 4645 records of patients with chronic diseases undergoing treatment during the prewar period, 998 records (21%) indicated having treatment during the war period. Compared with the prewar period, 59 of 180 individuals (33%; 95% CI, 26%-40%) had tuberculosis, 522 of 2211 (24%; 95% CI, 22%-26%) had HIV, 228 of 1195 (19%; 95% CI, 17%-21%) had hypertension, 123 of 632 (20%; 95% CI, 16%-22%) had psychiatric disorders, and 66 of 427 (15%; 95% CI, 12%-18%) had type 2 diabetes records, which revealed continued treatment during the war period. Of 174 records of patients with type 1 diabetes in the prewar period, at 2 to 3 months into the war, the numbers dropped to 10 with 94% decline compared with prewar observations. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that the war in Tigray has resulted in critical health care service disruption and high loss to follow-up for patients with chronic disease, likely leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Local, national, and global policymakers must understand the extent and impact of the service disruption and urge their efforts toward restoration of those services.

Impact of a double catastrophe, war and COVID-19, on health service utilization of a tertiary care hospital in Tigray: an interrupted time-series study.

BACKGROUND: In developing nations with fragile healthcare systems, the effect of war is likely to be much worse than it would be in more developed countries. The presence of COVID-19 will also likely exacerbate the war's impact. This study set out to determine the effect of armed conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic on health service utilization at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. METHODS: An interrupted time-series study design was used to analyze patient visits over forty-eight consecutive months (from July 2017 to June 2021) at inpatient, outpatient, and emergency departments. Data were analyzed using segmented regression analysis with a defined outcome of level and trend changes in the number of patient visits. In addition, negative binomial regression analysis was also used to estimate the impact of both COVID-19 and the war on patient flow. RESULTS: There were 59,935 admissions, 876,533 outpatient visits, and 127,872 emergency room visits. The effect of COVID-19 was seen as soon as the Tigray regional government imposed comprehensive restrictions. Immediately after COVID-19 appeared, all the service areas exhibited a significant monthly drop in visits; [-35.6% (95% CI: -48.2%, -23.1%)] for inpatient, [-60.6% (95% CI: -71.6%, -49.5%)] for outpatient, and [-44.1% (95% CI: -59.5%, -28.7%)] for emergency department visits. The impact of the war became apparent after a lag time of one month. Controlling the effects of time and COVID-19, the war led to a significant fall in inpatient visits [-44.3% (95% CI: -67.2%, -21.5%)], outpatients [-52.1% (95% CI: -82.7%, -21.5%)], and emergency-room attendances [-45.0% (95% CI: -74.8%, -15.2%)]. An upward trend in outpatient flow was observed after the war [1,219.4 (95% CI: 326.1, 2,112.8)]. CONCLUSIONS: The present study has clearly indicated that the war and COVID-19 have led to a large reduction in admissions, outpatient attendance, and emergency department visits. The evidence from this study suggests that due to this double catastrophe, thousands of patients could not gain access to healthcare, with probable negative consequences. Governments and organizations should implement measures to buttress the healthcare system to maintain pre-war status of service.

Adverse events of Oxford/AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine among health care workers of Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Tigray, Ethiopia.

Background: : The safety of COVID vaccines should be continuously followed. This study reports adverse events of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. Methods: : A prospective single-cohort study design was conducted to assess adverse events following immunization and associated factors of the first dose of Oxford/AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine in Ayder Comprehensive specialized hospital. A structured questionnaire was administered consecutively to 423 participants. Follow-up data were collected 72 hours after vaccination via phone. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to find associations between adverse events and independent variables. Statistical significance was declared at P<0.05. Results: : Out of 423 health care workers approached, 395 responded. At least one adverse event (95% CI: 63.58, 72.77) was reported by 270 participants. Local and systemic symptoms occurred in 46.8% (95% CI: 41.94, 51.79) and 58.48% (95% CI: 53.53, 63.26)], respectively. Muscle ache, fatigue, headache and fever were the most common local symptoms. No reports of hospitalization, disability or death. Age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]=0.97, P=0.048), female sex (AOR=1.84, P=0.028), and comorbidity (AOR=2.28, P=0.040) were independent predictors of adverse events. Conclusion and recommendation: : Adverse events following immunization are commonly reported after the first dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine; age, female sex and comorbidity are independent predictors.