Nonparametric inference in the accelerated failure time model using restricted means.

We propose a nonparametric estimate of the scale-change parameter for characterizing the difference between two survival functions under the accelerated failure time model using an estimating equation based on restricted means. Advantages of our restricted means based approach compared to current nonparametric procedures is the strictly monotone nature of the estimating equation as a function of the scale-change parameter, leading to a unique root, as well as the availability of a direct standard error estimate, avoiding the need for hazard function estimation or re-sampling to conduct inference. We derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator for fixed and for random point of restriction. In a simulation study, we compare the performance of the proposed estimator with parametric and nonparametric competitors in terms of bias, efficiency, and accuracy of coverage probabilities. The restricted means based approach provides unbiased estimates and accurate confidence interval coverage rates with efficiency ranging from 81% to 95% relative to fitting the correct parametric model. An example from a randomized clinical trial in head and neck cancer is provided to illustrate an application of the methodology in practice.

Quercetin Therapy for Selected Patients with PIM1 Kinase-Positive Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma: A Pilot Study.

We reported that PIM1 kinase is expressed in the lymphocytes of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL). Quercetin, a naturally occurring flavonoid, is a dietary supplement and inhibits many kinases, including PIM1, in vitro. Under an Institutional Review Board-approved protocol, we performed an open-label, single-arm pilot study to evaluate the antitumor activity of quercetin in patients with CLL/SLL. Q-ForceTM chews were administered orally, 500 mg twice daily, for 3 months. Eligible patients had failed prior therapies, had had no other standard treatment, or refused other therapies. Response was assessed based on objective change in disease parameters. Patients were included if their lymphocyte counts were rising and ≥10,000/µL but not > 100,000/µL. Three patients received quercetin treatment. There was no toxicity. Two responded with stabilization of rising lymphocyte counts (p < 0.001 for each), which remained stable during their follow-up (5 and 11 months after cessation of treatment, respectively). The CLL cells in the nonresponder harbored a TP53 mutation. Although our data from this pilot translational study are based on a small sample, further studies of quercetin as a potential therapeutic agent in selected patients with CLL/SLL appear warranted.

High relative humidity pre-harvest reduces post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella in tomatoes.

Outbreaks of human illness caused by enteric pathogens such as Salmonella are increasingly linked to the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Knowledge on the factors affecting Salmonella proliferation on fresh produce therefore becomes increasingly important to safeguard public health. Previous experiments showed a limited impact of pre-harvest production practices on Salmonella proliferation on tomatoes, but suggested a significant effect of harvest time. We explored the data from two previously published and one unpublished experiment using regression trees, which allowed overcoming the interpretational difficulties of classical statistical models with higher order interactions. We assessed the effect of harvest time by explicitly modeling the climatic conditions at harvest time and by performing confirmatory laboratory experiments. Across all datasets, regression trees confirmed the dominant effect of harvest time on Salmonella proliferation, with humidity-related factors emerging as the most important underlying climatic factors. High relative humidity the week prior to harvest was consistently associated with lower Salmonella proliferation. A controlled lab experiment confirmed that tomatoes containing their native epimicrobiota supported significantly lower Salmonella proliferation when incubated at higher humidity prior to inoculation. The complex interactions between environmental conditions and the native microbiota of the tomato crop remain to be fully understood.

A meta-analysis on the effect of dietary application of exogenous fibrolytic enzymes on the performance of dairy cows.

The aim of this study was to use meta-analytical methods to estimate effects of adding exogenous fibrolytic enzymes (EFE) to dairy cow diets on their performance and to determine which factors affect the response. Fifteen studies with 17 experiments and 36 observations met the study selection criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis. The effects were compared by using random-effect models to examine the raw mean difference (RMD) and standardized mean difference between EFE and control treatments after both were weighted with the inverse of the study variances. Heterogeneity sources evaluated by meta-regression included experimental duration, EFE type and application rate, form (liquid or solid), and method (application to the forage, concentrate, or total mixed ration). Only the cellulase-xylanase (C-X) enzymes had a substantial number of observations (n = 13 studies). Application of EFE, overall, did not affect dry matter intake, feed efficiency but tended to increase total-tract dry matter digestibility and neutral detergent fiber digestibility (NDFD) by relatively small amounts (1.36 and 2.30%, respectively, or <0.31 standard deviation units). Application of EFE increased yields of milk (0.83 kg/d), 3.5% fat-corrected milk (0.55 kg/d), milk protein (0.03 kg/d), and milk lactose (0.05 kg/d) by moderate to small amounts (<0.30 standard deviation units). Low heterogeneity (I 2 statistic <25%) was present for yields and concentrations of milk fat and protein and lactose yield. Moderate heterogeneity (I 2 = 25 to 50%) was detected for dry matter intake, milk yield, 3.5% fat-corrected milk, and feed efficiency (kg of milk/kg of dry matter intake), whereas high heterogeneity (I 2 > 50%) was detected for total-tract dry matter digestibility and NDFD. Milk production responses were higher for the C-X enzymes (RMD = 1.04 kg/d; 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 1.74), but were still only moderate, about 0.35 standardized mean difference. A 24% numerical increase in the RMD resulting from examining only C-X enzymes instead of all enzymes (RMD = 1.04 vs. 0.83 kg/d) suggests that had more studies met the inclusion criteria, the C-X enzymes would have statistically increased the milk response relative to that for all enzymes. Increasing the EFE application rate had no effect on performance measures. Application of EFE to the total mixed ration improved only milk protein concentration, and application to the forage or concentrate had no effect. Applying EFE tended to increase dry matter digestibility and NDFD and increased milk yield by relatively small amounts, reflecting the variable response among EFE types.

Distribution and Characterization of Salmonella enterica Isolates from Irrigation Ponds in the Southeastern United States.

Irrigation water has been implicated as a likely source of produce contamination by Salmonella enterica. Therefore, the distribution of S. enterica was surveyed monthly in irrigation ponds (n = 10) located within a prime agricultural region in southern Georgia and northern Florida. All ponds and 28.2% of all samples (n = 635) were positive for Salmonella, with an overall geometric mean concentration (0.26 most probable number [MPN]/liter) that was relatively low compared to prior reports for rivers in this region. Salmonella peaks were seasonal; the levels correlated with increased temperature and rainfall (P < 0.05). The numbers and occurrence were significantly higher in water (0.32 MPN/liter and 37% of samples) than in sediment (0.22 MPN/liter and 17% of samples) but did not vary with depth. Representative isolates (n = 185) from different ponds, sample types, and seasons were examined for resistance to 15 different antibiotics; most strains were resistant to streptomycin (98.9%), while 20% were multidrug resistant (MDR) for 2 to 6 antibiotics. DiversiLab repetitive extragenic palindromic-element sequence-based PCR (rep-PCR) revealed genetic diversity and showed 43 genotypes among 191 isolates, as defined by >95% similarity. The genotypes did not partition by pond, season, or sample type. Genetic similarity to known serotypes indicated Hadar, Montevideo, and Newport as the most prevalent. All ponds achieved the current safety standards for generic Escherichia coli in agricultural water, and regression modeling showed that the E. coli level was a significant predictor for the probability of Salmonella occurrence. However, persistent populations of Salmonella were widely distributed in irrigation ponds, and the associated risks for produce contamination and subsequent human exposure are unknown, supporting continued surveillance of this pathogen in agricultural settings.

Effect of the irrigation regime on the susceptibility of pepper and tomato to post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella enterica.

Raw produce is increasingly recognized as a vehicle of human gastroenteritis. Non-typhoidal Salmonella, pathogenic Escherichia coli, and other human pathogens have been isolated from fruits and vegetables in the field and in the marketplace, which led to the hypothesis that these microbes can use plants as alternate hosts. However, environmental and physiological factors that facilitate persistence of these bacteria in the crop production environment and make produce more vulnerable to post-harvest contamination have not been fully delineated. This study tested the effect of irrigation regimes on the susceptibility of peppers and tomatoes to post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella. The experiments were carried out over three experimental seasons in two locations using seven strains of Salmonella. The irrigation regime per se did not affect susceptibility of tomatoes and peppers to post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella; however, in some of the seasons, irrigation regime-dependent differences were observed. Red peppers and tomatoes were more conducive to proliferation of Salmonella than green fruit in all seasons. Inter-seasonal differences were the strongest factors affecting proliferation of Salmonella in peppers.

Racial and ethnic disparities in the observed COVID-19 case fatality rate among the U.S. population.

PURPOSE: During the initial 12 months of the pandemic, racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 death rates received considerable attention but it has been unclear whether disparities in death rates were due to disparities in case fatality rates (CFRs), incidence rates or both. We examined differences in observed COVID-19 CFRs between U.S. White, Black/African American, and Latinx individuals during this period. METHODS: Using data from the COVID Tracking Project and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Use dataset, we calculated CFR ratios comparing Black and Latinx to White individuals, both overall and separately by age group. We also used a model of monthly COVID-19 deaths to estimate CFR ratios, adjusting for age, gender, and differences across states and time. RESULTS: Overall Black and Latinx individuals had lower CFRs than their White counterparts. However, when adjusting for age, Black and Latinx had higher CFRs than White individuals among those younger than 65. CFRs varied substantially across states and time. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in COVID-19 case fatality among U.S. Black and Latinx individuals under age 65 were evident during the first year of the pandemic. Understanding racial and ethnic differences in COVID-19 CFRs is challenging due to limitations in available data.

Development of a novel cross-streaking method for isolation, confirmation, and enumeration of Salmonella from irrigation ponds.

The 2013 Produce Safety Rules in Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA) require regular testing for generic Escherichia coli in agricultural water intended for pre-harvest contact with the edible portion of fresh produce. However, the use of fecal contamination indicators frequently does not correctly reflect distribution of foodborne pathogens such as Salmonella enterica, and ensuring food safety may require direct detection and enumeration of pathogens in agricultural settings. Herein we report the evaluation of different cost-effective methods for quantification, isolation, and confirmation of Salmonella in irrigation pond water and sediment samples. A most probably number (MPN) dual enrichment culture method was used in combination with differential and selective agars, XLT4 and CHROMagar™ Salmonella plus (CSP). The necessity for PCR confirmation was evaluated, and methods were compared by cost and performance measures (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value). Statistical analyses showed that using XLT4 as the initial selective agar to isolate Salmonella colonies improved recovery compared to CSP agar; however, PCR confirmation was required to avoid false positive results on either agar. Therefore, a novel cross-streaking method utilizing CHROMagar™ agar for individual colony confirmation of Salmonella presence/absence on XLT4 was developed. This method classifies the colony as positive if typical Salmonella appearance is observed on both agars. Statistical analysis showed that this method was as effective as PCR for species confirmation of pure individual strains isolated from enrichment cultures (sensitivity=0.99, specificity=1.00, relative to PCR). This method offers a cost-effective alternative to PCR that would increase the capacity and sensitivity of Salmonella evaluation.

Factors that affect proliferation of Salmonella in tomatoes post-harvest: the roles of seasonal effects, irrigation regime, crop and pathogen genotype.

MAIN OBJECTIVES: Fresh fruits and vegetables become increasingly recognized as vehicles of human salmonellosis. Physiological, ecological, and environmental factors are all thought to contribute to the ability of Salmonella to colonize fruits and vegetables pre- and post-harvest. The goal of this study was to test how irrigation levels, fruit water congestion, crop and pathogen genotypes affect the ability of Salmonella to multiply in tomatoes post-harvest. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Fruits from three tomato varieties, grown over three production seasons in two Florida locations, were infected with seven strains of Salmonella and their ability to multiply post-harvest in field-grown tomatoes was tested. The field experiments were set up as a two-factor factorial split plot experiment, with the whole-plot treatments arranged in a randomized complete-block design. The irrigation treatment (at three levels) was the whole-plot factor, and the split-plot factor was tomato variety, with three levels. The significance of the main, two-way, and three-way interaction effects was tested using the (type III) F-tests for fixed effects. Mean separation for each significant fixed effect in the model was performed using Tukey's multiple comparison testing procedure. MOST IMPORTANT DISCOVERIES AND SIGNIFICANCE: The irrigation regime per se did not affect susceptibility of the crop to post-harvest proliferation of Salmonella. However, Salmonella grew significantly better in water-congested tissues of green tomatoes. Tomato maturity and genotype, Salmonella genotype, and inter-seasonal differences were the strongest factors affecting proliferation. Red ripe tomatoes were significantly and consistently more conducive to proliferation of Salmonella. Tomatoes harvested in the driest, sunniest season were the most conducive to post-harvest proliferation of the pathogen. Statistically significant interactions between production conditions affected post-harvest susceptibility of the crop to the pathogen. UV irradiation of tomatoes post-harvest promoted Salmonella growth.