Systems analysis and controlled malaria infection in Europeans and Africans elucidate naturally acquired immunity.

Controlled human infections provide opportunities to study the interaction between the immune system and malaria parasites, which is essential for vaccine development. Here, we compared immune signatures of malaria-naive Europeans and of Africans with lifelong malaria exposure using mass cytometry, RNA sequencing and data integration, before and 5 and 11 days after venous inoculation with Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites. We observed differences in immune cell populations, antigen-specific responses and gene expression profiles between Europeans and Africans and among Africans with differing degrees of immunity. Before inoculation, an activated/differentiated state of both innate and adaptive cells, including elevated CD161+CD4+ T cells and interferon-γ production, predicted Africans capable of controlling parasitemia. After inoculation, the rapidity of the transcriptional response and clusters of CD4+ T cells, plasmacytoid dendritic cells and innate T cells were among the features distinguishing Africans capable of controlling parasitemia from susceptible individuals. These findings can guide the development of a vaccine effective in malaria-endemic regions.

NetTDP: permutation-based true discovery proportions for differential co-expression network analysis.

Existing methods for differential network analysis could only infer whether two networks of interest have differences between two groups of samples, but could not quantify and localize network differences. In this work, a novel method, permutation-based Network True Discovery Proportions (NetTDP), is proposed to quantify the number of edges (correlations) or nodes (genes) for which the co-expression networks are different. In the NetTDP method, we propose an edge-level statistic and a node-level statistic, and detect true discoveries of edges and nodes in the sense of differential co-expression network, respectively, by the permutation-based sumSome method. Furthermore, the NetTDP method could further localize the differences by inferring the TDPs for edge or gene subsets of interest, which can be selected post hoc. Our NetTDP method allows inference on data-driven modules or biology-driven gene sets, and remains valid even when these sub-networks are optimized using the same data. Experimental results on both simulation data sets and five real data sets show the effectiveness of the proposed method in inferring the quantification and localization of differential co-expression networks. The R code is available at https://github.com/LiminLi-xjtu/NetTDP.

Cerebrospinal Fluid and Plasma Amine Profiles in Interictal Migraine.

OBJECTIVE: Impaired amine metabolism has been associated with the etiology of migraine, that is, why patients continue to get migraine attacks. However, evidence from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is lacking. Here, we evaluated individual amine levels, global amine profiles, and amine pathways in CSF and plasma of interictal migraine patients and healthy controls. METHODS: CSF and plasma were sampled between 8:30 am and 1:00 pm, randomly and interchangeably over the time span to avoid any diurnal and seasonal influences, from healthy volunteers and interictal migraine patients, matched for age, sex, and sampling time. The study was approved by the local medical ethics committee. Individual amines (n = 31), global amine profiles, and specific amine pathways were analyzed using a validated ultraperformance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry platform. RESULTS: We analyzed n = 99 participants with migraine with aura, n = 98 with migraine without aura, and n = 96 healthy volunteers. Univariate analysis with Bonferroni correction indicated that CSF L-arginine was reduced in migraine with aura (10.4%, p < 0.001) and without aura (5.0%, p = 0.03). False discovery rate-corrected CSF L-phenylalanine was also lower in migraine with aura (6.9%, p = 0.011) and without aura (8.1%, p = 0.001), p = 0.088 after Bonferroni correction. Multivariate analysis revealed that CSF global amine profiles were similar for both types of migraine (p = 0.64), but distinct from controls (p = 0.009). Global profile analyses were similar in plasma. The strongest associated pathways with migraine were related to L-arginine metabolism. INTERPRETATION: L-Arginine was decreased in the CSF (but not in plasma) of interictal patients with migraine with or without aura, and associated pathways were altered. This suggests that dysfunction of nitric oxide signaling is involved in susceptibility to getting migraine attacks. ANN NEUROL 2023;93:715-728.

Clarifying the biological and statistical assumptions of cross-sectional biological age predictors: an elaborate illustration using synthetic and real data.

BACKGROUND: There is divergence in the rate at which people age. The concept of biological age is postulated to capture this variability, and hence to better represent an individual's true global physiological state than chronological age. Biological age predictors are often generated based on cross-sectional data, using biochemical or molecular markers as predictor variables. It is assumed that the difference between chronological and predicted biological age is informative of one's chronological age-independent aging divergence ∆. METHODS: We investigated the statistical assumptions underlying the most popular cross-sectional biological age predictors, based on multiple linear regression, the Klemera-Doubal method or principal component analysis. We used synthetic and real data to illustrate the consequences if this assumption does not hold. RESULTS: The most popular cross-sectional biological age predictors all use the same strong underlying assumption, namely that a candidate marker of aging's association with chronological age is directly informative of its association with the aging rate ∆. We called this the identical-association assumption and proved that it is untestable in a cross-sectional setting. If this assumption does not hold, weights assigned to candidate markers of aging are uninformative, and no more signal may be captured than if markers would have been assigned weights at random. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-sectional methods for predicting biological age commonly use the untestable identical-association assumption, which previous literature in the field had never explicitly acknowledged. These methods have inherent limitations and may provide uninformative results, highlighting the importance of researchers exercising caution in the development and interpretation of cross-sectional biological age predictors.

Cumulative incidence and risk factors for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma metastases in organ transplant recipients: The Skin Care in Organ Transplant Patients in Europe-International Transplant Skin Cancer Collaborative metastases study, a prospective multicenter study.

INTRODUCTION: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are believed to have an increased risk of metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), but reliable data are lacking regarding the precise incidence and associated risk factors. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, including 19 specialist dermatology outpatient clinics in 15 countries, patient and tumor characteristics were collected using standardized questionnaires when SOTRs presented with a new cSCC. After a minimum of 2 years of follow-up, relevant data for all SOTRs were collected. Cumulative incidence of metastases was calculated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Fine and Gray models were used to assess multiple risk factors for metastases. RESULTS: Of 514 SOTRs who presented with 623 primary cSCCs, metastases developed in 37 with a 2-year patient-based cumulative incidence of 6.2%. Risk factors for metastases included location in the head and neck area, local recurrence, size > 2 cm, clinical ulceration, poor differentiation grade, perineural invasion, and deep invasion. A high-stage tumor that is also ulcerated showed the highest risk of metastasis, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of 46.2% (31.9%-68.4%). CONCLUSIONS: SOTRs have a high risk of cSCC metastases and well-established clinical and histologic risk factors have been confirmed. High-stage, ulcerated cSCCs have the highest risk of metastasis.

The AccelerAge framework: a new statistical approach to predict biological age based on time-to-event data.

Aging is a multifaceted and intricate physiological process characterized by a gradual decline in functional capacity, leading to increased susceptibility to diseases and mortality. While chronological age serves as a strong risk factor for age-related health conditions, considerable heterogeneity exists in the aging trajectories of individuals, suggesting that biological age may provide a more nuanced understanding of the aging process. However, the concept of biological age lacks a clear operationalization, leading to the development of various biological age predictors without a solid statistical foundation. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a comprehensive operationalization of biological age, introducing the "AccelerAge" framework for predicting biological age, and introducing previously underutilized evaluation measures for assessing the performance of biological age predictors. The AccelerAge framework, based on Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, directly models the effect of candidate predictors of aging on an individual's survival time, aligning with the prevalent metaphor of aging as a clock. We compare predictors based on the AccelerAge framework to a predictor based on the GrimAge predictor, which is considered one of the best-performing biological age predictors, using simulated data as well as data from the UK Biobank and the Leiden Longevity Study. Our approach seeks to establish a robust statistical foundation for biological age clocks, enabling a more accurate and interpretable assessment of an individual's aging status.

Mycosis Fungoides and Associated Malignancies in a Dutch Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study.

The prognosis of patients with mycosis fungoides is variable. As the current literature is scarce and shows mixed results this study investigates the incidence of other primary malignancies in mycosis fungoides patients. A retrospective, nationwide, population- based cohort study was performed with patients with mycosis fungoides between 2000 and 2020 in The Netherlands. All histopathology reports were requested from the Nationwide Network and Registry of Histo- and Cytopathology and screened for other primary malignancies. Lifelong incidence rates were used to compare the incidence of malignancies in mycosis fungoides patients and the general population. In total 1,024 patients were included with a mean follow-up of 10 years (SD 6). A total of 294 cases of other primary malignancies were found with 29% of the mycosis fungoides patients developing at least 1 other primary malignancy. Only cutaneous (odds ratio [OR] 2.54; CI 2.0-3.2) and haematological malignancies (OR 2.62; CI 2.00-3.42) had a statistically significant higher incidence than the Dutch population overall. Mycosis fungoides patients have a significantly increased risk of developing melanomas (OR 2.76; CI 2.11-3.59) and cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas mycosis fungoides (OR 2.34; CI 1.58-3.45). This study shows no association between mycosis fungoides and other solid organ tumours; however, such patients are significantly at risk of developing other haematological and cutaneous malignancies. Clinicians should be aware of this increased risk.

Early-Onset Sepsis as an Early Predictor for Retinopathy of Prematurity: A Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Neonatal sepsis has been established as a risk factor for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) but previous meta-analyses have predominately focused on late-onset sepsis (LOS). This meta-analysis aims to explore the association between early-onset sepsis (EOS) and the risk of ROP. STUDY DESIGN: Observational studies reporting (unadjusted) data on proven EOS in neonates with ROP were included. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library were searched. Proven EOS was defined as a positive blood or cerebrospinal fluid culture. Effect sizes were calculated by using logistic random-effects models and meta-regression analyses. Primary outcomes were any stage ROP and severe ROP (≥stage 3, type I, aggressive [posterior] ROP, plus disease or requiring treatment). Potential confounders explored were gestational age at birth, birth weight, small for gestational age, maternal steroid use, necrotizing enterocolitis, LOS, and mechanical ventilation duration. RESULTS: Seventeen studies reporting the incidence of proven EOS in neonates with ROP were included. Proven EOS showed no significant association with any stage ROP (odds ratio [OR] = 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-3.79, p = 0.067) but heterogeneity between studies was significantly high. Neonates with proven EOS had an increased risk for severe ROP (OR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.68-2.90), and no significant confounders influencing this effect size were found in the meta-regression analysis. CONCLUSION: Neonates with proven EOS are at increased risk of severe ROP. Neonatologists need to be aware that EOS is an early predictor of ROP and should adapt their policy and treatment decisions where possible to reduce ROP. KEY POINTS: · This meta-analysis reveals a 2.2-fold increased risk of severe ROP in neonates with proven EOS.. · Future studies should distinguish between EOS and LOS when investigating risk factors of ROP.. · Treatment decisions should be adapted where possible in neonates with EOS before ROP screening begins..

Combining Partial True Discovery Guarantee Procedures.

Closed testing has recently been shown to be optimal for simultaneous true discovery proportion control. It is, however, challenging to construct true discovery guarantee procedures in such a way that it focuses power on some feature sets chosen by users based on their specific interest or expertise. We propose a procedure that allows users to target power on prespecified feature sets, that is, "focus sets." Still, the method also allows inference for feature sets chosen post hoc, that is, "nonfocus sets," for which we deduce a true discovery lower confidence bound by interpolation. Our procedure is built from partial true discovery guarantee procedures combined with Holm's procedure and is a conservative shortcut to the closed testing procedure. A simulation study confirms that the statistical power of our method is relatively high for focus sets, at the cost of power for nonfocus sets, as desired. In addition, we investigate its power property for sets with specific structures, for example, trees and directed acyclic graphs. We also compare our method with AdaFilter in the context of replicability analysis. The application of our method is illustrated with a gene ontology analysis in gene expression data.

Inflated false discovery rate due to volcano plots: problem and solutions.

MOTIVATION: Volcano plots are used to select the most interesting discoveries when too many discoveries remain after application of Benjamini-Hochberg's procedure (BH). The volcano plot suggests a double filtering procedure that selects features with both small adjusted $P$-value and large estimated effect size. Despite its popularity, this type of selection overlooks the fact that BH does not guarantee error control over filtered subsets of discoveries. Therefore the selected subset of features may include an inflated number of false discoveries. RESULTS: In this paper, we illustrate the substantially inflated type I error rate of volcano plot selection with simulation experiments and RNA-seq data. In particular, we show that the feature with the largest estimated effect is a very likely false positive result. Next, we investigate two alternative approaches for multiple testing with double filtering that do not inflate the false discovery rate. Our procedure is implemented in an interactive web application and is publicly available.

Maximum likelihood estimation in the additive hazards model.

The additive hazards model specifies the effect of covariates on the hazard in an additive way, in contrast to the popular Cox model, in which it is multiplicative. As the non-parametric model, additive hazards offer a very flexible way of modeling time-varying covariate effects. It is most commonly estimated by ordinary least squares. In this paper, we consider the case where covariates are bounded, and derive the maximum likelihood estimator under the constraint that the hazard is non-negative for all covariate values in their domain. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator may be obtained by separately maximizing the log-likelihood contribution of each event time point, and we show that the maximizing problem is equivalent to fitting a series of Poisson regression models with an identity link under non-negativity constraints. We derive an analytic solution to the maximum likelihood estimator. We contrast the maximum likelihood estimator with the ordinary least-squares estimator in a simulation study and show that the maximum likelihood estimator has smaller mean squared error than the ordinary least-squares estimator. An illustration with data on patients with carcinoma of the oropharynx is provided.

Closed testing with Globaltest, with application in metabolomics.

The Globaltest is a powerful test for the global null hypothesis that there is no association between a group of features and a response of interest, which is popular in pathway testing in metabolomics. Evaluating multiple feature sets, however, requires multiple testing correction. In this paper, we propose a multiple testing method, based on closed testing, specifically designed for the Globaltest. The proposed method controls the familywise error rate simultaneously over all possible feature sets, and therefore allows post hoc inference, that is, the researcher may choose feature sets of interest after seeing the data without jeopardizing error control. To circumvent the exponential computation time of closed testing, we derive a novel shortcut that allows exact closed testing to be performed on the scale of metabolomics data. An R package ctgt is available on comprehensive R archive network for the implementation of the shortcut procedure, with applications on several real metabolomics data examples.

Permutation-based true discovery proportions for functional magnetic resonance imaging cluster analysis.

We propose a permutation-based method for testing a large collection of hypotheses simultaneously. Our method provides lower bounds for the number of true discoveries in any selected subset of hypotheses. These bounds are simultaneously valid with high confidence. The methodology is particularly useful in functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging cluster analysis, where it provides a confidence statement on the percentage of truly activated voxels within clusters of voxels, avoiding the well-known spatial specificity paradox. We offer a user-friendly tool to estimate the percentage of true discoveries for each cluster while controlling the family-wise error rate for multiple testing and taking into account that the cluster was chosen in a data-driven way. The method adapts to the spatial correlation structure that characterizes functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging data, gaining power over parametric approaches.

Histological Chorioamnionitis and Funisitis as New Risk Factors for Retinopathy of Prematurity: A Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The role of placental inflammation in neonatal morbidities is underestimated due to lack of placental examination. This meta-analysis aims to assess the association between histological chorioamnionitis (HCA) with and without funisitis (FUN) and risk of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). STUDY DESIGN: Forty-five studies reporting (unadjusted) data on HCA without FUN and HCA with FUN in neonates with ROP were included. Primary outcomes were any stage ROP and severe ROP. Potential confounders explored were gestational age (GA) at birth, birthweight, maternal steroid use, necrotizing enterocolitis, sepsis (suspected/proven) and mechanical ventilation duration. RESULTS: Neonates with HCA had increased risk for any stage ROP (odds ratio [OR] 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-2.4) and severe ROP (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.2-1.8) compared with neonates without HCA. The rates of any stage ROP (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.4-2.2) and severe ROP (OR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.6) were higher in neonates with FUN compared with neonates without FUN. Multivariate meta-regression analysis suggests that lower GA increases the effect size between FUN and severe ROP. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis confirms that presence of HCA and FUN are risk factors for any stage ROP and severe ROP. Structured histological placental examination of HCA and FUN may be a tool to further refine the ROP risk profile. KEY POINTS: · This systematic review confirms that HCA is a risk factor for ROP.. · This meta-analysis reveals that FUN results in an even higher risk for developing ROP.. · Placental examination of HCA/FUN may be a tool to further refine the ROP risk profile..

Molecular Landscape of Pelvic Organ Prolapse Provides Insights into Disease Etiology.

Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) represents a major health care burden in women, but its underlying pathophysiological mechanisms have not been elucidated. We first used a case-control design to perform an exome chip study in 526 women with POP and 960 control women to identify single nucleotide variants (SNVs) associated with the disease. We then integrated the functional interactions between the POP candidate proteins derived from the exome chip study and other POP candidate molecules into a molecular landscape. We found significant associations between POP and SNVs in 54 genes. The proteins encoded by 26 of these genes fit into the molecular landscape, together with 43 other POP candidate molecules. The POP landscape is located in and around epithelial cells and fibroblasts of the urogenital tract and harbors four interacting biological processes-epithelial-mesenchymal transition, immune response, modulation of the extracellular matrix, and fibroblast function-that are regulated by sex hormones and TGFB1. Our findings were corroborated by enrichment analyses of differential gene expression data from an independent POP cohort. Lastly, based on the landscape and using vaginal fibroblasts from women with POP, we predicted and showed that metformin alters gene expression in these fibroblasts in a beneficial direction. In conclusion, our integrated molecular landscape of POP provides insights into the biological processes underlying the disease and clues towards novel treatments.

Better-than-chance classification for signal detection.

The estimated accuracy of a classifier is a random quantity with variability. A common practice in supervised machine learning, is thus to test if the estimated accuracy is significantly better than chance level. This method of signal detection is particularly popular in neuroimaging and genetics. We provide evidence that using a classifier's accuracy as a test statistic can be an underpowered strategy for finding differences between populations, compared to a bona fide statistical test. It is also computationally more demanding than a statistical test. Via simulation, we compare test statistics that are based on classification accuracy, to others based on multivariate test statistics. We find that the probability of detecting differences between two distributions is lower for accuracy-based statistics. We examine several candidate causes for the low power of accuracy-tests. These causes include: the discrete nature of the accuracy-test statistic, the type of signal accuracy-tests are designed to detect, their inefficient use of the data, and their suboptimal regularization. When the purpose of the analysis is the evaluation of a particular classifier, not signal detection, we suggest several improvements to increase power. In particular, to replace V-fold cross-validation with the Leave-One-Out Bootstrap.

Simultaneous Enrichment Analysis of all Possible Gene-sets: Unifying Self-Contained and Competitive Methods.

Studying sets of genomic features is increasingly popular in genomics, proteomics and metabolomics since analyzing at set level not only creates a natural connection to biological knowledge but also offers more statistical power. Currently, there are two gene-set testing approaches, self-contained and competitive, both of which have their advantages and disadvantages, but neither offers the final solution. We introduce simultaneous enrichment analysis (SEA), a new approach for analysis of feature sets in genomics and other omics based on a new unified null hypothesis, which includes the self-contained and competitive null hypotheses as special cases. We employ closed testing using Simes tests to test this new hypothesis. For every feature set, the proportion of active features is estimated, and a confidence bound is provided. Also, for every unified null hypotheses, a $P$-value is calculated, which is adjusted for family-wise error rate. SEA does not need to assume that the features are independent. Moreover, users are allowed to choose the feature set(s) of interest after observing the data. We develop a novel pipeline and apply it on RNA-seq data of dystrophin-deficient mdx mice, showcasing the flexibility of the method. Finally, the power properties of the method are evaluated through simulation studies.

Echo planar imaging-induced errors in intracardiac 4D flow MRI quantification.

PURPOSE: To assess errors associated with EPI-accelerated intracardiac 4D flow MRI (4DEPI) with EPI factor 5, compared with non-EPI gradient echo (4DGRE). METHODS: Three 3T MRI experiments were performed comparing 4DEPI to 4DGRE: steady flow through straight tubes, pulsatile flow in a left-ventricle phantom, and intracardiac flow in 10 healthy volunteers. For each experiment, 4DEPI was repeated with readout and blip phase-encoding gradient in different orientations, parallel or perpendicular to the flow direction. In vitro flow rates were compared with timed volumetric collection. In the left-ventricle phantom and in vivo, voxel-based speed and spatio-temporal median speed were compared between sequences, as well as mitral and aortic transvalvular net forward volume. RESULTS: In steady-flow phantoms, the flow rate error was largest (12%) for high velocity (>2 m/s) with 4DEPI readout gradient parallel to the flow. Voxel-based speed and median speed in the left-ventricle phantom were ≤5.5% different between sequences. In vivo, mean net forward volume inconsistency was largest (6.4 ± 8.5%) for 4DEPI with nonblip phase-encoding gradient parallel to the main flow. The difference in median speed for 4DEPI versus 4DGRE was largest (9%) when the 4DEPI readout gradient was parallel to the flow. CONCLUSIONS: Velocity and flow rate are inaccurate for 4DEPI with EPI factor 5 when flow is parallel to the readout or blip phase-encoding gradient. However, mean differences in flow rate, voxel-based speed, and spatio-temporal median speed were acceptable (≤10%) when comparing 4DEPI to 4DGRE for intracardiac flow in healthy volunteers.

Simultaneous confidence intervals for ranks with application to ranking institutions.

When a ranking of institutions such as medical centers or universities is based on a numerical measure of performance provided with a standard error, confidence intervals (CIs) should be calculated to assess the uncertainty of these ranks. We present a novel method based on Tukey's honest significant difference test to construct simultaneous CIs for the true ranks. When all the true performances are equal, the probability of coverage of our method attains the nominal level. In case the true performance measures have no exact ties, our method is conservative. For this situation, we propose a rescaling method to the nominal level that results in shorter CIs while keeping control of the simultaneous coverage. We also show that a similar rescaling can be applied to correct a recently proposed Monte-Carlo based method, which is anticonservative. After rescaling, the two methods perform very similarly. However, the rescaling of the Monte-Carlo based method is computationally much more demanding and becomes infeasible when the number of institutions is larger than 30-50. We discuss another recently proposed method similar to ours based on simultaneous CIs for the true performance. We show that our method provides uniformly shorter CIs for the same confidence level. We illustrate the superiority of our new methods with a data analysis for travel time to work in the United States and on rankings of 64 hospitals in the Netherlands.

Gaining power in multiple testing of interval hypotheses via conditionalization.

In this article, we introduce a novel procedure for improving power of multiple testing procedures (MTPs) of interval hypotheses. When testing interval hypotheses the null hypothesis $P$-values tend to be stochastically larger than standard uniform if the true parameter is in the interior of the null hypothesis. The new procedure starts with a set of $P$-values and discards those with values above a certain pre-selected threshold, while the rest are corrected (scaled-up) by the value of the threshold. Subsequently, a chosen family-wise error rate (FWER) or false discovery rate MTP is applied to the set of corrected $P$-values only. We prove the general validity of this procedure under independence of $P$-values, and for the special case of the Bonferroni method, we formulate several sufficient conditions for the control of the FWER. It is demonstrated that this "filtering" of $P$-values can yield considerable gains of power.