SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection.

The spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is critical for virus infection through the engagement of the human ACE2 protein1 and is a major antibody target. Here we show that chronic infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to viral evolution and reduced sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies in an immunosuppressed individual treated with convalescent plasma, by generating whole-genome ultra-deep sequences for 23 time points that span 101 days and using in vitro techniques to characterize the mutations revealed by sequencing. There was little change in the overall structure of the viral population after two courses of remdesivir during the first 57 days. However, after convalescent plasma therapy, we observed large, dynamic shifts in the viral population, with the emergence of a dominant viral strain that contained a substitution (D796H) in the S2 subunit and a deletion (ΔH69/ΔV70) in the S1 N-terminal domain of the spike protein. As passively transferred serum antibodies diminished, viruses with the escape genotype were reduced in frequency, before returning during a final, unsuccessful course of convalescent plasma treatment. In vitro, the spike double mutant bearing both ΔH69/ΔV70 and D796H conferred modestly decreased sensitivity to convalescent plasma, while maintaining infectivity levels that were similar to the wild-type virus.The spike substitution mutant D796H appeared to be the main contributor to the decreased susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies, but this mutation resulted in an infectivity defect. The spike deletion mutant ΔH69/ΔV70 had a twofold higher level of infectivity than wild-type SARS-CoV-2, possibly compensating for the reduced infectivity of the D796H mutation. These data reveal strong selection on SARS-CoV-2 during convalescent plasma therapy, which is associated with the emergence of viral variants that show evidence of reduced susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies in immunosuppressed individuals.

Genomic and geographical structure of human cytomegalovirus.

Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) has infected humans since the origin of our species and currently infects most of the world's population. Variability between CMV genomes is the highest of any human herpesvirus, yet large portions of the genome are conserved. Here, we show that the genome encodes 74 regions of relatively high variability each with 2 to 8 alleles. We then identified two patterns in the CMV genome. Conserved parts of the genome and a minority (32) of variable regions show geographic population structure with evidence for African or European clustering, although hybrid strains are present. We find no evidence that geographic segregation has been driven by host immune pressure affecting known antigenic sites. Forty-two variable regions show no geographical structure, with similar allele distributions across different continental populations. These "nongeographical" regions are significantly enriched for genes encoding immunomodulatory functions suggesting a core functional importance. We hypothesize that at least two CMV founder populations account for the geographical differences that are largely seen in the conserved portions of the genome, although the timing of separation and direction of spread between the two are not clear. In contrast, the similar allele frequencies among 42 variable regions of the genome, irrespective of geographical origin, are indicative of a second evolutionary process, namely balancing selection that may preserve properties critical to CMV biological function. Given that genetic differences between CMVs are postulated to alter immunogenicity and potentially function, understanding these two evolutionary processes could contribute important information for the development of globally effective vaccines and the identification of novel drug targets.

Favipiravir induces HuNoV viral mutagenesis and infectivity loss with clinical improvement in immunocompromised patients.

Chronic human norovirus (HuNoV) infections in immunocompromised patients result in severe disease, yet approved antivirals are lacking. RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) inhibitors inducing viral mutagenesis display broad-spectrum in vitro antiviral activity, but clinical efficacy in HuNoV infections is anecdotal and the potential emergence of drug-resistant variants is concerning. Upon favipiravir (and nitazoxanide) treatment of four immunocompromised patients with life-threatening HuNoV infections, viral whole-genome sequencing showed accumulation of favipiravir-induced mutations which coincided with clinical improvement although treatment failed to clear HuNoV. Infection of zebrafish larvae demonstrated drug-associated loss of viral infectivity and favipiravir treatment showed efficacy despite occurrence of RdRp variants potentially causing favipiravir resistance. This indicates that within-host resistance evolution did not reverse loss of viral fitness caused by genome-wide accumulation of sequence changes. This off-label approach supports the use of mutagenic antivirals for treating prolonged RNA viral infections and further informs the debate surrounding their impact on virus evolution.

Selection for cooperativity causes epistasis predominately between native contacts and enables epistasis-based structure reconstruction.

Epistasis and cooperativity of folding both result from networks of energetic interactions in proteins. Epistasis results from energetic interactions among mutants, whereas cooperativity results from energetic interactions during folding that reduce the presence of intermediate states. The two concepts seem intuitively related, but it is unknown how they are related, particularly in terms of selection. To investigate their relationship, we simulated protein evolution under selection for cooperativity and separately under selection for epistasis. Strong selection for cooperativity created strong epistasis between contacts in the native structure but weakened epistasis between nonnative contacts. In contrast, selection for epistasis increased epistasis in both native and nonnative contacts and reduced cooperativity. Because epistasis can be used to predict protein structure only if it preferentially occurs in native contacts, this result indicates that selection for cooperativity may be key for predicting structure using epistasis. To evaluate this inference, we simulated the evolution of guanine nucleotide-binding protein (GB1) with and without cooperativity. With cooperativity, strong epistatic interactions clearly map out the native GB1 structure, while allowing the presence of intermediate states (low cooperativity) obscured the structure. This indicates that using epistasis measurements to reconstruct protein structure may be inappropriate for proteins with stable intermediates.

Evolution of viral variants in remdesivir-treated and untreated SARS-CoV-2-infected pediatrics patients.

Detailed information on intrahost viral evolution in SARS-CoV-2 with and without treatment is limited. Sequential viral loads and deep sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from the upper respiratory tract of nine hospitalized children, three of whom were treated with remdesivir, revealed that remdesivir treatment suppressed viral load in one patient but not in a second infected with an identical strain without any evidence of drug resistance found. Reduced levels of subgenomic RNA during treatment of the second patient, suggest an additional effect of remdesivir on viral replication. Haplotype reconstruction uncovered persistent SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes in four patients. These likely arose from within-host evolution, although superinfection cannot be excluded in one case. Although our dataset is small, observed sample-to-sample heterogeneity in variant frequencies across four of nine patients suggests the presence of discrete viral populations in the lung with incomplete population sampling in diagnostic swabs. Such compartmentalization could compromise the penetration of remdesivir into the lung, limiting the drugs in vivo efficacy, as has been observed in other lung infections.

Positive selection in dNTPase SAMHD1 throughout mammalian evolution.

The vertebrate protein SAMHD1 is highly unusual in having roles in cellular metabolic regulation, antiviral restriction, and regulation of innate immunity. Its deoxynucleoside triphosphohydrolase activity regulates cellular dNTP concentration, reducing levels below those required by lentiviruses and other viruses to replicate. To counter this threat, some primate lentiviruses encode accessory proteins that bind SAMHD1 and induce its degradation; in turn, positive diversifying selection has been observed in regions bound by these lentiviral proteins, suggesting that primate SAMHD1 has coevolved to evade these countermeasures. Moreover, deleterious polymorphisms in human SAMHD1 are associated with autoimmune disease linked to uncontrolled DNA synthesis of endogenous retroelements. Little is known about how evolutionary pressures affect these different SAMHD1 functions. Here, we examine the deeper history of these interactions by testing whether evolutionary signatures in SAMHD1 extend to other mammalian groups and exploring the molecular basis of this coevolution. Using codon-based likelihood models, we find positive selection in SAMHD1 within each mammal lineage for which sequence data are available. We observe positive selection at sites clustered around T592, a residue that is phosphorylated to regulate SAMHD1 activity. We verify experimentally that mutations within this cluster affect catalytic rate and lentiviral restriction, suggesting that virus-host coevolution has required adaptations of enzymatic function. Thus, persistent positive selection may have involved the adaptation of SAMHD1 regulation to balance antiviral, metabolic, and innate immunity functions.

Human cytomegalovirus haplotype reconstruction reveals high diversity due to superinfection and evidence of within-host recombination.

Recent sequencing efforts have led to estimates of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) genome-wide intrahost diversity that rival those of persistent RNA viruses [Renzette N, Bhattacharjee B, Jensen JD, Gibson L, Kowalik TF (2011) PLoS Pathog 7:e1001344]. Here, we deep sequence HCMV genomes recovered from single and longitudinally collected blood samples from immunocompromised children to show that the observations of high within-host HCMV nucleotide diversity are explained by the frequent occurrence of mixed infections caused by genetically distant strains. To confirm this finding, we reconstructed within-host viral haplotypes from short-read sequence data. We verify that within-host HCMV nucleotide diversity in unmixed infections is no greater than that of other DNA viruses analyzed by the same sequencing and bioinformatic methods and considerably less than that of human immunodeficiency and hepatitis C viruses. By resolving individual viral haplotypes within patients, we reconstruct the timing, likely origins, and natural history of superinfecting strains. We uncover evidence for within-host recombination between genetically distinct HCMV strains, observing the loss of the parental virus containing the nonrecombinant fragment. The data suggest selection for strains containing the recombinant fragment, generating testable hypotheses about HCMV evolution and pathogenesis. These results highlight that high HCMV diversity present in some samples is caused by coinfection with multiple distinct strains and provide reassurance that within the host diversity for single-strain HCMV infections is no greater than for other herpesviruses.

Viral CpG Deficiency Provides No Evidence That Dogs Were Intermediate Hosts for SARS-CoV-2.

Due to the scope and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic there exists a strong desire to understand where the SARS-CoV-2 virus came from and how it jumped species boundaries to humans. Molecular evolutionary analyses can trace viral origins by establishing relatedness and divergence times of viruses and identifying past selective pressures. However, we must uphold rigorous standards of inference and interpretation on this topic because of the ramifications of being wrong. Here, we dispute the conclusions of Xia (2020. Extreme genomic CpG deficiency in SARS-CoV-2 and evasion of host antiviral defense. Mol Biol Evol. doi:10.1093/molbev/masa095) that dogs are a likely intermediate host of a SARS-CoV-2 ancestor. We highlight major flaws in Xia's inference process and his analysis of CpG deficiencies, and conclude that there is no direct evidence for the role of dogs as intermediate hosts. Bats and pangolins currently have the greatest support as ancestral hosts of SARS-CoV-2, with the strong caveat that sampling of wildlife species for coronaviruses has been limited.

Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021-2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study.

BACKGROUND: To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions. METHODS: Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021. RESULTS: We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages. CONCLUSIONS: Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Biophysics and population size constrains speciation in an evolutionary model of developmental system drift.

Developmental system drift is a likely mechanism for the origin of hybrid incompatibilities between closely related species. We examine here the detailed mechanistic basis of hybrid incompatibilities between two allopatric lineages, for a genotype-phenotype map of developmental system drift under stabilising selection, where an organismal phenotype is conserved, but the underlying molecular phenotypes and genotype can drift. This leads to number of emergent phenomenon not obtainable by modelling genotype or phenotype alone. Our results show that: 1) speciation is more rapid at smaller population sizes with a characteristic, Orr-like, power law, but at large population sizes slow, characterised by a sub-diffusive growth law; 2) the molecular phenotypes under weakest selection contribute to the earliest incompatibilities; and 3) pair-wise incompatibilities dominate over higher order, contrary to previous predictions that the latter should dominate. The population size effect we find is consistent with previous results on allopatric divergence of transcription factor-DNA binding, where smaller populations have common ancestors with a larger drift load because genetic drift favours phenotypes which have a larger number of genotypes (higher sequence entropy) over more fit phenotypes which have far fewer genotypes; this means less substitutions are required in either lineage before incompatibilities arise. Overall, our results indicate that biophysics and population size provide a much stronger constraint to speciation than suggested by previous models, and point to a general mechanistic principle of how incompatibilities arise the under stabilising selection for an organismal phenotype.

ChromaClade: combined visualisation of phylogenetic and sequence data.

BACKGROUND: Studying site-specific amino acid frequencies by eye can reveal biologically significant variability and lineage-specific adaptation. This so-called 'sequence gazing' often informs bioinformatics and experimental research. But it is important to also account for the underlying phylogeny, since similarities may be due to common descent rather than selection pressure, and because it is important to distinguish between founder effects and convergent evolution. We set out to combine phylogenetic and sequence data to produce evolutionarily insightful visualisations. RESULTS: We present ChromaClade, a convenient tool with a graphical user-interface that works in concert with popular tree viewers to produce colour-annotated phylogenies highlighting residues found in each taxon and at each site in a sequence alignment. Colouring branches according to residues found at descendent tips also quickly identifies lineage-specific residues and those internal branches where key substitutions have occurred. We demonstrate applications of ChromaClade to human immunodeficiency virus and influenza A virus datasets, illustrating cases of conservative, adaptive and convergent evolution. CONCLUSIONS: We find this to be a powerful approach for visualising site-wise residue distributions and detecting evolutionary patterns, especially in large datasets. ChromaClade is available for Windows, macOS and Unix or Linux; program executables and source code are available at github.com/chrismonit/chroma_clade .

SubRecon: ancestral reconstruction of amino acid substitutions along a branch in a phylogeny.

Summary: Existing ancestral sequence reconstruction techniques are ill-suited to investigating substitutions on a single branch of interest. We present SubRecon, an implementation of a hybrid technique integrating joint and marginal reconstruction for protein sequence data. SubRecon calculates the joint probability of states at adjacent internal nodes in a phylogeny, i.e. how the state has changed along a branch. This does not condition on states at other internal nodes and includes site rate variation. Simulation experiments show the technique to be accurate and powerful. SubRecon has a user-friendly command line interface and produces concise output that is intuitive yet suitable for subsequent parsing in an automated pipeline. Availability and implementation: SubRecon is platform independent, requiring Java v1.8 or above. Source code, installation instructions and an example dataset are freely available under the Apache 2.0 license at https://github.com/chrismonit/SubRecon.

Finding Direction in the Search for Selection.

Tests for positive selection have mostly been developed to look for diversifying selection where change away from the current amino acid is often favorable. However, in many cases we are interested in directional selection where there is a shift toward specific amino acids, resulting in increased fitness in the species. Recently, a few methods have been developed to detect and characterize directional selection on a molecular level. Using the results of evolutionary simulations as well as HIV drug resistance data as models of directional selection, we compare two such methods with each other, as well as against a standard method for detecting diversifying selection. We find that the method to detect diversifying selection also detects directional selection under certain conditions. One method developed for detecting directional selection is powerful and accurate for a wide range of conditions, while the other can generate an excessive number of false positives.

Skeletal Muscle Injury Biomarkers: Assay Qualification Efforts and Translation to the Clinic.

Skeletal muscle (SKM) injury or myopathy results in structural or functional defects in SKMs that can be caused by variety of factors such as (1) genetic, (2) drug-induced, (3) disease progression (cachexia), or (4) aging (sarcopenia). Creatine kinase (CK) and aspartate transaminase (AST) activity assays have been routinely used as SKM injury biomarkers, but they lack sensitivity and tissue specificity. In collaboration with the Predictive Safety Testing Consortium, we evaluated the diagnostic performance of a muscle injury biomarker panel (MIP) compared to CK and AST and their correlation with the histology scores across 34 different rat studies. The MIP panel included the analytes skeletal troponin I, myosin light chain 3, fatty acid binding protein 3, and a CK mass (versus activity) assay. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for MIP panel ranged from 0.82 to 0.91 as compared to 0.71 and 0.82 for CK and AST activity assays, respectively. Because the MIP biomarkers outperformed the routine biomarkers, the European Medicines Agency and U.S. Food and Drug Administration posted Letters of Support encouraging further study of these analytes and acknowledged the utility of the MIP panel. Ongoing efforts are directed toward the application of the MIP panel biomarkers in clinical studies and regulatory qualification.

Nonadaptive Amino Acid Convergence Rates Decrease over Time.

Convergence is a central concept in evolutionary studies because it provides strong evidence for adaptation. It also provides information about the nature of the fitness landscape and the repeatability of evolution, and can mislead phylogenetic inference. To understand the role of adaptive convergence, we need to understand the patterns of nonadaptive convergence. Here, we consider the relationship between nonadaptive convergence and divergence in mitochondrial and model proteins. Surprisingly, nonadaptive convergence is much more common than expected in closely related organisms, falling off as organisms diverge. The extent of the convergent drop-off in mitochondrial proteins is well predicted by epistatic or coevolutionary effects in our "evolutionary Stokes shift" models and poorly predicted by conventional evolutionary models. Convergence probabilities decrease dramatically if the ancestral amino acids of branches being compared have diverged, but also drop slowly over evolutionary time even if the ancestral amino acids have not substituted. Convergence probabilities drop-off rapidly for quickly evolving sites, but much more slowly for slowly evolving sites. Furthermore, once sites have diverged their convergence probabilities are extremely low and indistinguishable from convergence levels at randomized sites. These results indicate that we cannot assume that excessive convergence early on is necessarily adaptive. This new understanding should help us to better discriminate adaptive from nonadaptive convergence and develop more relevant evolutionary models with improved validity for phylogenetic inference.

A coarse-grained biophysical model of sequence evolution and the population size dependence of the speciation rate.

Speciation is fundamental to understanding the huge diversity of life on Earth. Although still controversial, empirical evidence suggests that the rate of speciation is larger for smaller populations. Here, we explore a biophysical model of speciation by developing a simple coarse-grained theory of transcription factor-DNA binding and how their co-evolution in two geographically isolated lineages leads to incompatibilities. To develop a tractable analytical theory, we derive a Smoluchowski equation for the dynamics of binding energy evolution that accounts for the fact that natural selection acts on phenotypes, but variation arises from mutations in sequences; the Smoluchowski equation includes selection due to both gradients in fitness and gradients in sequence entropy, which is the logarithm of the number of sequences that correspond to a particular binding energy. This simple consideration predicts that smaller populations develop incompatibilities more quickly in the weak mutation regime; this trend arises as sequence entropy poises smaller populations closer to incompatible regions of phenotype space. These results suggest a generic coarse-grained approach to evolutionary stochastic dynamics, allowing realistic modelling at the phenotypic level.

Amino acid coevolution induces an evolutionary Stokes shift.

The process of amino acid replacement in proteins is context-dependent, with substitution rates influenced by local structure, functional role, and amino acids at other locations. Predicting how these differences affect replacement processes is difficult. To make such inference easier, it is often assumed that the acceptabilities of different amino acids at a position are constant. However, evolutionary interactions among residue positions will tend to invalidate this assumption. Here, we use simulations of purple acid phosphatase evolution to show that amino acid propensities at a position undergo predictable change after an amino acid replacement at that position. After a replacement, the new amino acid and similar amino acids tend to become gradually more acceptable over time at that position. In other words, proteins tend to equilibrate to the presence of an amino acid at a position through replacements at other positions. Such a shift is reminiscent of the spectroscopy effect known as the Stokes shift, where molecules receiving a quantum of energy and moving to a higher electronic state will adjust to the new state and emit a smaller quantum of energy whenever they shift back down to the original ground state. Predictions of changes in stability in real proteins show that mutation reversals become less favorable over time, and thus, broadly support our results. The observation of an evolutionary Stokes shift has profound implications for the study of protein evolution and the modeling of evolutionary processes.

The evolution of collective restraint: policing and obedience among non-conjugative plasmids.

The repression of competition by mechanisms of policing is now recognized as a major force in the maintenance of cooperation. General models on the evolution of policing have focused on the interplay between individual competitiveness and mutual policing, demonstrating a positive relationship between within-group diversity and levels of policing. We expand this perspective by investigating what is possibly the simplest example of reproductive policing: copy number control (CNC) among non-conjugative plasmids, a class of extra-chromosomal vertically transmitted molecular symbionts of bacteria. Through the formulation and analysis of a multi-scale dynamical model, we show that the establishment of stable reproductive restraint among plasmids requires the co-evolution of two fundamental plasmid traits: policing, through the production of plasmid-coded trans-acting replication inhibitors, and obedience, expressed as the binding affinity of plasmid-specific targets to those inhibitors. We explain the intrinsic replication instabilities that arise in the absence of policing and we show how these instabilities are resolved by the evolution of copy number control. Increasing levels of policing and obedience lead to improvements in group performance due to tighter control of local population size (plasmid copy number), delivering benefits both to plasmids, by reducing the risk of segregational loss and to the plasmid-host partnership, by increasing the rate of cell reproduction, and therefore plasmid vertical transmission.