Diabetes, Prediabetes, and the Risk of a Composite Outcome of Long-term Sickness Absence and Pre-retirement Death Due to Physical Disorders.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes and prediabetes have been linked with morbidity or mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, or other physical disorders among working-age populations, but less is known about outcomes directly related to labor loss (eg, Tlong-term sickness absence [LTSA] or pre-retirement death due to physical disorders).This prospective study aimed to examine the association of diabetes and prediabetes with the risk of a composite outcome of LTSA and pre-retirement death due to physical disorders. The present study also examined the associations of severe outcomes (LTSA or death) due to specific physical disorders or injuries/external causes in relation to diabetes and prediabetes. METHODS: Data were derived from the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health study. A total of 60,519 workers from 12 companies were followed for 8 years. Diabetes and prediabetes were defined based on the American Diabetes Association criteria. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to examine the association between diabetes/prediabetes and severe outcomes due to physical disorders or injuries/external causes. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios of severe outcomes due to all physical disorders were 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.45) and 2.32 (95% CI, 2.04-2.64) for prediabetes and diabetes, respectively. In cause-specific analyses, an increased risk was observed for severe outcomes due to cancers, cardiovascular diseases, diseases of the musculoskeletal system, and injuries/external causes in relation to either or both diabetes and prediabetes. CONCLUSION: Diabetes and prediabetes were associated with an increased risk of severe outcomes due to physical disorders or injuries/external causes among Japanese workers.

Metabolic syndrome and the risk of severe cancer events: a longitudinal study in Japanese workers.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with cancer risk; however, little is known regarding its relationship with the risk of cancer-related premature death and long-term sick leave (LTSL), which can lead to a substantial loss in working years. The present study aimed to quantify the all-site and site-specific associations between MetS and the risk of severe cancer events (a composite outcome of LTSL and mortality due to cancer) in a large working population in Japan. METHODS: We recruited 70,875 workers (59,950 men and 10,925 women), aged 20-59 years, who attended health check-ups in 2011 (10 companies) and 2014 (2 companies). All workers underwent follow up for severe cancer events until March 31, 2020. MetS was defined in accordance with the Joint Interim Statement. Cox regression models were used to quantify the association between baseline MetS and severe cancer events. RESULTS: During 427,379 person-years of follow-up, 523 participants experienced the outcome consisting of 493 LTSLs of which 124 eventually resulted in death, and 30 deaths without taking LTSL. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for composite severe events due to all-site, obesity-related, and non-obesity-related cancer among those with vs. without MetS were 1.26 (1.03, 1.55), 1.37 (1.04, 1.82), and 1.15 (0.84, 1.56), respectively. In cancer site-specific analyses, MetS was associated with an increased risk of severe events due to pancreatic cancer (HR, 2.06; 95% CI, 0.99-4.26). When mortality was treated solely as the endpoint, the association was significant for all-site (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.10-2.26), and obesity-related (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.00-2.54) cancer. Additionally, a greater number of MetS components was associated with a greater risk of both severe cancer events and cancer-related mortality (P trend < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Among Japanese workers, MetS was associated with an increased risk of severe cancer events, especially those due to obesity-linked cancer.

Blood pressure classification using the Japanese Society of Hypertension Guidelines for the Management of Hypertension and cardiovascular events among young to middle-aged working adults.

The Japanese Society of Hypertension updated guidelines for hypertension management (JSH2019), changing the blood pressure (BP) classification. However, evidence is sparse regarding the association of the classification with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events among young to middle-aged workers in Japan. We examined this issue using longitudinal data from Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study with a prospective cohort design. Participants were 81,876 workers (aged 20-64 years) without taking antihypertensive medication at baseline. BP in 2011 or 2010 was used as exposure. CVD events that occurred from 2012 to 2021 were retrieved from a within-study registry. Cox regression was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of CVD events. During 0.5 million person-years of follow-up, 334 cardiovascular events, 75 cardiovascular deaths, and 322 all-cause deaths were documented. Compared with normal BP (systolic BP [SBP] < 120 mmHg and diastolic BP [DBP] < 80 mmHg), multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of cardiovascular events were 1.98 (1.49-2.65), 2.10 (1.58-2.77), 3.48 (2.33-5.19), 4.12 (2.22-7.64), and 7.81 (3.99-15.30) for high normal BP (SBP120-129 mmHg and DBP < 80 mmHg), elevated BP (SBP130-139 mmHg and/or DBP80-89 mmHg), stage 1 hypertension (SBP140-159 mmHg and DBP90-99 mmHg), stage 2 hypertension (SBP160-179 mmHg and/or DBP100-109 mmHg), and stage 3 hypertension (SBP ≥ 180 mmHg and/or DBP ≥ 110 mmHg), respectively. The highest population attributable fraction was observed in elevated BP (17.8%), followed by stage 1 hypertension (14.1%). The present data suggest that JSH2019 may help identify Japanese workers at a higher cardiovascular risk.

Development and Validation of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Model for the Japanese Working Population: The Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to develop a cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk model using data from a large occupational cohort. METHODS: A risk prediction model was developed using the routine health checkup data of 96,117 Japanese employees (84.0% men) who were 30-64 years of age and had no CVD at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regression models were employed to develop a risk model for assessing the 10-year CVD risk. Measures of discrimination and calibration were used to assess the predictive performance of the model and internal validation was used to examine potential overfitting. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 6.7 years (range, 0.1-11.0 years), 422 cases of incident CVD were confirmed. The final model, which included predictor variables of age, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, demonstrated a good predictive ability (Harrell's C-statistic, 0.796; 95% confidence interval, 0.775-0.817) with excellent calibration between observed and predicted values. Internal validation revealed minimal overfitting. CONCLUSIONS: The developed model can accurately predict the 10-year CVD risk. Because it is based on routine health checkup data, the prediction model can be easily implemented in the workplace. Further studies are required to assess the external validity and transferability of the proposed CVD risk model.