Clinical and Laboratory Factors Associated with Severe Dengue: A Case-Control Study of Hospitalized Children.

Background: More than half of the hospitalizations because of dengue in Brazil occurred in children <15 years of age in 2007 and 2008, an unexpected change in the epidemiological pattern. We sought to determine clinical and laboratory parameters associated with severity. Methods: A case-control study was conducted in three pediatric hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; 233 laboratory-confirmed dengue patients were included: 69 cases and 164 controls. Specific clinical and laboratory factors were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. Results: Lethargy [adjusted odds ratio (ORa): 9.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.08-27.12], dyspnea (ORa: 8.24, 95% CI: 3.27-20.72) and abdominal pain (ORa: 6.78, 95% CI: 1.44-31.84) were independently associated with severe dengue in children. Lethargy and dyspnea presented as early as 72 and 48 h, respectively, before shock. Conclusions: Abdominal pain and lethargy confirmed their role as warning signs, which along with dyspnea might be helpful in identifying cases progressing to severe dengue.

Sensitivity and specificity of the World Health Organization dengue classification schemes for severe dengue assessment in children in Rio de Janeiro.

BACKGROUND: The clinical definition of severe dengue fever remains a challenge for researchers in hyperendemic areas like Brazil. The ability of the traditional (1997) as well as the revised (2009) World Health Organization (WHO) dengue case classification schemes to detect severe dengue cases was evaluated in 267 children admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed dengue. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using the traditional scheme, 28.5% of patients could not be assigned to any category, while the revised scheme categorized all patients. Intensive therapeutic interventions were used as the reference standard to evaluate the ability of both the traditional and revised schemes to detect severe dengue cases. Analyses of the classified cases (n = 183) demonstrated that the revised scheme had better sensitivity (86.8%, P<0.001), while the traditional scheme had better specificity (93.4%, P<0.001) for the detection of severe forms of dengue. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This improved sensitivity of the revised scheme allows for better case capture and increased ICU admission, which may aid pediatricians in avoiding deaths due to severe dengue among children, but, in turn, it may also result in the misclassification of the patients' condition as severe, reflected in the observed lower positive predictive value (61.6%, P<0.001) when compared with the traditional scheme (82.6%, P<0.001). The inclusion of unusual dengue manifestations in the revised scheme has not shifted the emphasis from the most important aspects of dengue disease and the major factors contributing to fatality in this study: shock with consequent organ dysfunction.