Predicting chronic kidney disease progression with artificial intelligence.

BACKGROUND: The use of tools that allow estimation of the probability of progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to advanced stages has not yet achieved significant practical importance in clinical setting. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based model for predicting the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and disease progression for patients with stage 3-5 CKD. METHODS: This was a retrospective, closed cohort, observational study. Patients with CKD affiliated with a private insurer with five-year follow-up data were selected. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were included, and the models were developed based on machine learning methods. The outcomes were CKD progression, a significant decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the need for RRT. RESULTS: Three prediction models were developed-Model 1 (risk at 4.5 years, n = 1446) with a F1 of 0.82, 0.53, and 0.55 for RRT, stage progression, and reduction in the eGFR, respectively,- Model 2 (time- to-event, n = 2143) with a C-index of 0.89, 0.67, and 0.67 for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively, and Model 3 (reduced Model 2) with C-index = 0.68, 0.68 and 0.88, for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively. CONCLUSION: The time-to-event model performed well in predicting the three outcomes of CKD progression at five years. This model can be useful for predicting the onset and time of occurrence of the outcomes of interest in the population with established CKD.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common genetic cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that requires dialysis. Knowing geographical clusters can be critical for early diagnosis, progression control, and genetic counseling. The objective was to establish the prevalence, geographic location, and ethnic groups of patients with ADPKD who underwent dialysis or kidney transplant in Colombia between 2015 and 2019. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional study with data from the National Registry of Chronic Kidney Disease (NRCKD) managed by the High-Cost Diseases Fund (Cuenta de Alto Costo [CAC] in Spanish) between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2019. We included Colombian population with CKD with or without renal replacement therapy (RRT) due to ADPKD. Crude and adjusted prevalence rates were estimated by state and city. RESULTS: 3,339 patients with ADPKD were included, period prevalence was 9.81 per 100,000 population; there were 4.35 cases of RRT per 100,000 population, mean age of 52.58 years (± 13.21), and 52.78% women. Seventy-six patients were Afro-Colombians, six were indigenous, and one Roma people. A total of 46.07% began scheduled dialysis. The highest adjusted prevalence rate was in Valle del Cauca (6.55 cases per 100,000 population), followed by Risaralda, and La Guajira. Regarding cities, Cali had the highest prevalence rate (9.38 cases per 100,000 population), followed by Pasto, Medellin, and Bucaramanga. CONCLUSIONS: ADPKD prevalence is lower compared to Europe and US; some states with higher prevalence could be objective to genetic prevalence study.

Risk factors associated with acute kidney injury in a cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Patients with COVID-19 have a high incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI), which is associated with mortality. The objective of the study was to determine the factors associated with AKI in patients with COVID-19. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective cohort was established in two university hospitals in Bogotá, Colombia. Adults hospitalized for more than 48 h from March 6, 2020, to March 31, 2021, with confirmed COVID-19 were included. The main outcome was to determine the factors associated with AKI in patients with COVID-19 and the secondary outcome was estimate the incidence of AKI during the 28 days following hospital admission. RESULTS: A total of 1584 patients were included: 60.4% were men, 738 (46.5%) developed AKI, 23.6% were classified as KDIGO 3, and 11.1% had renal replacement therapy. The risk factors for developing AKI during hospitalization were male sex (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.73-2.99), age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), history of chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR 3.61, 95% CI 2.03-6.42), High Blood Pressure (HBP) (OR 6.51, 95% CI 2.10-20.2), higher qSOFA score to the admission (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.14-1.71), the use of vancomycin (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.05-2.37), piperacillin/tazobactam (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.2-2.31), and vasopressor support (CI 2.39, 95% CI 1.53-3.74). The gross hospital mortality for AKI was 45.5% versus 11.7% without AKI. CONCLUSIONS: This cohort showed that male sex, age, history of HBP and CKD, presentation with elevated qSOFA, in-hospital use of nephrotoxic drugs and the requirement for vasopressor support were the main risk factors for developing AKI in patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

B-mode ultrasonographic evaluation of long bones in Falconiformes and Strigiformes birds.

Bone fractures in birds are usually diagnosed with the aid of traditional radiography. However, this technique remains limited because of the difficulties associating this examination with real-time procedures. The aim of this study was to describe the use of B-mode ultrasound to assess the long bones of two avian orders. For the study, we used carcases of birds from the orders Falconiformes (n = 9) and Strigiformes (n = 12), with weights ranging from 108 to 1020 g. An ultrasound device with a 5-12 MHz linear probe was employed to produce images of the long bones (humerus, radius, ulna, femur and tibiotarsus). Ultrasound (US) measurements and physical measurements using a caliper were applied to compare the diameter of the bones. Images were also recorded from the US examination performed in two live patients attending the hospital with suspected bone fractures. No statistical difference was found between the two methods of measurement in carcases weighing up to 267 g (P > 0.01). The US examination provided relevant clinical information about the bone cortex and assisted in real-time surgical procedures. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Long bones of Falconiformes and Strigiformes birds were assessed with B-mode ultrasound. Ultrasound analysis is a relevant tool in clinical orthopaedics for avian species. Ultrasound of the bone might be applied for monitoring of healing processes.

HbA1c overestimates the glucose management indicator: a pilot study in patients with diabetes, chronic kidney disease not on dialysis, and anemia using isCGM.

Introduction: There are multiple mechanisms by which HbA1c values can be altered in chronic kidney disease (CKD), which limits its usefulness as a strategy to assess glycemic control in this population. Methods: Concordance and agreement study between two diagnostic tests: HbA1c and glucose management indicator (GMI) measured by intermittently scanned continuous glucose monitoring (isCGM), based in a prospective cohort of patients with diabetes, CKD (glomerular filtration rate between 15 and 60 ml/min/1.73 m²), and anemia. The isCGM was performed for 3 months, and the GMI was compared with the HbA1c levels taken at the end of isCGM. Agreement was evaluated using Bland-Altman graph analysis and Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). The concordance of the measures with good glycemic control (<7%) was also evaluated. Results: A total of 74 patients were enrolled (median age 68.5 years, 51.3% female, 64.9% with CKD stage 3, hemoglobin 11.1 ± 1.2 g/l). The Bland-Altman analysis shows a mean difference between GMI and HbA1c of 0.757 ± 0.687% (95% limits of agreement: -0.590 and 2.105). Difference was greater as the values of GMI and HbA1c increased. The agreement was poor [CCC 0.477; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.360-0.594], as well as the concordance of values with good glycemic control according to GMI versus HbA1c (67.5% versus 29.7%, p < 0.001) (Kappa 0.2430; 95% CI: 0.16-0.32). Conclusion: The HbA1c overestimates the GMI values with highly variable ranges of difference, which prevents a precise correction factor. isCGM probably is a safer option for monitoring and decision-making in this population, especially in patients treated with insulin where the risk of hypoglycemia is greater.

Cost-Effectiveness of Rituximab (Fixed Schedule vs Tailored Dose) Compared With Azathioprine Maintenance Therapy in Adults With Generalized Antineutrophil Cytoplasm Antibody-Associated Vasculitis in Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: Azathioprine has been the therapy of choice for the maintenance of remission in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasm antibody (ANCA)-associated systemic vasculitis, but recent studies show that rituximab could be more effective. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of azathioprine, fixed-schedule rituximab, and tailored-dose rituximab for ANCA-associated systemic vasculitis. METHODS: A Markov model from the perspective of the Colombian healthcare system was designed with annual cycles and a 5-year time horizon, charting the following states: remission, minor relapse, major relapse, and death. The discount rate was 5%. Transition probabilities were obtained from a systematic literature review. The costs (1 US dollar = 2956 Colombian pesos in 2018) were estimated based on national drug registries and official fee manuals for procedures, along with other resources. The main outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) taken from the Tufts registry. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Final costs were $1446 for azathioprine, $4898 for tailored-dose rituximab, and $6311 for fixed-schedule rituximab. QALYs gained were 3.18, 4.08, and 3.98, respectively. Rituximab was cost-effective (cost per incremental QALY gained: $4919, and $6865), and tailored-dose administration had a lower cost. Sensitivity analyses did not affect the results. CONCLUSIONS: Tailored-dose rituximab was the most cost-effective treatment for ANCA-associated vasculitis. Azathioprine presented worse effectiveness and lower cost, and fixed-schedule rituximab was dominated by tailored-dose rituximab.

Costo-efectividad de dos esquemas de prevención de la infección por citomegalovirus en pacientes con trasplante renal y riesgo intermedio en Colombia.

Introducción. El citomegalovirus es la causa más frecuente de infección en pacientes con trasplante renal. Existen dos estrategias de similar efectividad para prevenirlo: la profilaxis universal con valganciclovir durante 90 días o el tratamiento anticipado verificando la carga viral semanal y aplicándolo solo si esta es positiva.Objetivo. Determinar cuál de estas dos estrategias sería más costo-efectiva en pacientes de riesgo intermedio en Colombia.Materiales y métodos. Se diseñó un árbol de decisiones bajo la perspectiva del tercer pagador considerando únicamente los costos médicos directos en pesos colombianos (COP) del 2014 durante un periodo de un año en una población de pacientes con riesgo intermedio para citomegalovirus (donante positivo y receptor positivo, o donante negativo y receptor positivo). Las probabilidades de transición se extrajeron de los estudios clínicos y se validaron con expertos mediante el método Delphi.Los costos de los procedimientos se basaron en el manual tarifario ISS 2001, con un incremento del 33 % a partir del índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) en salud de 2014, en tanto que los de los medicamentos se extrajeron de las circulares del Ministerio de Salud y del Sistema de Información de Medicamentos (Sismed).Resultados. La profilaxis universal con valganciclovir resultó ser menos costosa y se asoció con una menor probabilidad de infección. El costo promedio del primer año de tratamiento anticipado sería de COP$ 30'961.290, mientras que el universal sería de COP$ 29'967.834, es decir, un costo 'incremental' de COP$ 993.456.Conclusiones. Para los pacientes de riesgo intermedio con trasplante renal en Colombia, la profilaxis universal es la mejor estrategia por ser menos costosa y reducir el riesgo de infección.

Dickkopf 1 protein circulating levels as a possible biomarker of functional disability and chronic damage in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an inflammatory disease characterized by joint destruction, deformity, lower functionality, and decrease in life expectancy. Wingless signaling pathway (Wnt) has been recently involved in bone homeostasis. Studies suggest that overexpression of the pathway inhibitors, like the Dickkopf 1 protein (DKK1), has been implicated in bone destruction. The objective of this study is to compare circulating levels of DKK1 in different groups of patients with disease activity (remission, low, moderate, high activity,) and functionality status. Three hundred seventy-nine patients with RA were evaluated between March 2015 and November 2016. Disease activity was evaluated by disease activity score 28 with C-reactive protein (DAS28CPR), simplified and clinical disease activity scores (SDAI, CDAI), routine assessment of patient index data 3 (RAPID3), functional status using Multidimensional Health Assessment Questionnaire (MD-HAQ), and the Steinbrocker functional classification. DKK1 levels were measured by ELISA. The mean age was 60.7 ± 13.9 years. Disease duration was 13.2 ± 10.9 years. Higher levels of DKK1 were not associated with disease activity by CDAI (p = 0.70), SDAI (p = 0.84), DAS28CRP (p = 0.80), or RAPID3 (p = 0.70). Interestingly higher levels of DKK1 were significantly associated to lower functional status evaluating by the Steinbrocker classification (p = 0,013), severe disability by MD-HAQ (p = 0,004), and variables associated with joint destruction like osteoporosis, higher titles of rheumatoid factor, smoking, and increased hospital admissions related to RA. Higher levels of DKK1 were found in patients with lower functional status. This association was not found in patients with greater disease activity by CDAI, SDAI, DAS28, and RAPID3. This could be explained by more structural damage; DKK1 could be used as a biomarker of joint destruction in RA.

Costo-efectividad de dos esquemas de prevención de la infección por citomegalovirus en pacientes con trasplante renal y riesgo intermedio en Colombia / Cost-effectiveness of two prevention cytomegalovirus infection schemes in renal transplant patients at intermediate risk in Colombia

Resumen Introducción. El citomegalovirus es la causa más frecuente de infección en pacientes con trasplante renal. Existen dos estrategias de similar efectividad para prevenirlo: la profilaxis universal con valganciclovir durante 90 días o el tratamiento anticipado verificando la carga viral semanal y aplicándolo solo si esta es positiva. Objetivo. Determinar cuál de estas dos estrategias sería más costo-efectiva en pacientes de riesgo intermedio en Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se diseñó un árbol de decisiones bajo la perspectiva del tercer pagador considerando únicamente los costos médicos directos en pesos colombianos (COP) del 2014 durante un periodo de un año en una población de pacientes con riesgo intermedio para citomegalovirus (donante positivo y receptor positivo, o donante negativo y receptor positivo). Las probabilidades de transición se extrajeron de los estudios clínicos y se validaron con expertos mediante el método Delphi. Los costos de los procedimientos se basaron en el manual tarifario ISS 2001, con un incremento del 33 % a partir del índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) en salud de 2014, en tanto que los de los medicamentos se extrajeron de las circulares del Ministerio de Salud y del Sistema de Información de Medicamentos (Sismed). Resultados. La profilaxis universal con valganciclovir resultó ser menos costosa y se asoció con una menor probabilidad de infección. El costo promedio del primer año de tratamiento anticipado sería de COP$ 30'961.290, mientras que el universal sería de COP$ 29'967.834, es decir, un costo 'incremental' de COP$ 993.456. Conclusiones. Para los pacientes de riesgo intermedio con trasplante renal en Colombia, la profilaxis universal es la mejor estrategia por ser menos costosa y reducir el riesgo de infección.

Abstract Introduction: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is the most frequent opportunistic infection after renal transplantation. There are two strategies for its prevention: Universal prophylaxis, with valganciclovir for 90 days, and anticipated therapy, using weekly viral load surveillance, and therapy only if positive. Meta-analysis directly comparing both strategies have shown them to have similar effectiveness. Objective: To determine which strategy is more cost-effective in intermediate risk patients in Colombia. Materials and methods: We designed a third-party payer perspective decision tree, considering only direct medical costs in 2014 Colombian pesos (COP) (USD$ 1=COP$ 2,000) and a time horizon of one year. The target population was intermediate CMV risk patients (positive receptor). Transition probabilities were extracted from clinical studies, validated with a Delphi expert panel method; procedural costs were obtained from the ISS 2001 manual with a 33% increment based on the Consumer Price Index for 2014, while medication costs were obtained from the official Ministry of Health information system. Results: Universal prophylaxis with valganciclovir was dominant, with lower costs and less probability of infection. The average cost of the first year in anticipated therapy would be COP$ 30,961,290, whereas in the case of universal therapy the cost would be COP$ 29,967,834 (incremental cost of COP$ 993,456). Conclusions: For Colombian renal transplant patients at intermediate risk for CMV infection, universal prophylaxis strategy is the best option.