Optima TB: A tool to help optimally allocate tuberculosis spending.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting.

Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

Evaluating the effectiveness of incentives to improve HIV prevention outcomes for young females in Eswatini: Sitakhela Likusasa impact evaluation protocol and baseline results.

BACKGROUND: Eswatini continues to have the highest prevalence of HIV in the world, and one of the highest HIV incidences among adult populations (aged 15-49). This analysis reports on both key elements of study design/protocol and baseline results from an impact evaluation of an intervention incentivizing (i) initiation, enrolment, attendance or completion of some form of education, and (ii) lower risk sexual behaviour. METHODS: The impact evaluation employs a two by two factorial design in which participants are enrolled in either the incentive for education arm ('education treatment arm' providing a conditional cash incentive) or the control arm ('education control arm'). In each of these arms, 50% of participants were randomized to also be eligible for selection - three times a year - to participate in a conditional raffle conditional on testing negative for curable STIs (syphilis and Trichomonas vaginalis). RESULTS: Baseline recruitment and screening occurred in 2016 when a total of 6055 individuals were screened of which 4863 participated in the baseline survey, and 4819 individuals were randomized into one of the study arms. The baseline prevalence of HIV, Trichomonas vaginalis, and syphilis among adolescent girls and young women 8.20% (397/4840), 3.31% (150/4533) and 0.17% (8/4830) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An educational cash incentive and raffle incentive impact evaluation that addresses adolescent girls and young women who are in-education and out-of-education has the potential to reduce HIV risk in adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Name of the registry: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PACTR201811609257043 . Date of registration: May 11, 2018 'Retrospectively registered'. URL of trial registry record: https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=4685.

Adherence clubs and decentralized medication delivery to support patient retention and sustained viral suppression in care: Results from a cluster-randomized evaluation of differentiated ART delivery models in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery models, in which patients are provided with care relevant to their current status (e.g., newly initiating, stable on treatment, or unstable on treatment) has become an essential part of patient-centered health systems. In 2015, the South African government implemented Chronic Disease Adherence Guidelines (AGLs), which involved five interventions: Fast Track Initiation Counseling for newly initiating patients, Enhanced Adherence Counseling for patients with an unsuppressed viral load, Early Tracing of patients who miss visits, and Adherence Clubs (ACs) and Decentralized Medication Delivery (DMD) for stable patients. We evaluated two of these interventions in 24 South African facilities: ACs, in which patients meet in groups outside usual clinic procedures and receive medication; and DMD, in which patients pick up their medication outside usual pharmacy queues. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compared those participating in ACs or receiving DMD at intervention sites to those eligible for ACs or DMD at control sites. Outcomes were retention and sustained viral suppression (<400 copies/mL) 12 months after AC or DMD enrollment (or comparable time for controls). 12 facilities were randomly allocated to intervention and 12 to control arms in four provinces (Gauteng, North West, Limpopo, and KwaZulu Natal). We calculated adjusted risk differences (aRDs) with cluster adjustment using generalized estimating equations (GEEs) using difference in differences (DiD) with patients eligible for ACs/DMD prior to implementation (Jan 1, 2015) for comparison. For DMD, randomization was not preserved, and the analysis was treated as observational. For ACs, 275 intervention and 294 control patients were enrolled; 72% of patients were female, 61% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 268 cells/µL. AC patients had higher 1-year retention (89.5% versus 81.6%, aRD: 8.3%; 95% CI: 1.1% to 15.6%) and comparable sustained 1-year viral suppression (<400 copies/mL any time ≤ 18 months) (80.0% versus 79.6%, aRD: 3.8%; 95% CI: -6.9% to 14.4%). Retention associations were apparently stronger for men than women (men RD: 13.1%, 95% CI: 0.3% to 23.5%; women RD: 6.0%, 95% CI: -0.9% to 12.9%). For DMD, 232 intervention and 346 control patients were enrolled; 71% of patients were female, 65% were aged 30-49 years, and median CD4 count at ART initiation was 270 cells/µL. DMD patients had apparently lower retention (81.5% versus 87.2%, aRD: -5.9%; 95% CI: -12.5% to 0.8%) and comparable viral suppression versus standard of care (77.2% versus 74.3%, aRD: -1.0%; 95% CI: -12.2% to 10.1%), though in both cases, our findings were imprecise. We also noted apparently increased viral suppression among men (RD: 11.1%; 95% CI: -3.4% to 25.5%). The main study limitations were missing data and lack of randomization in the DMD analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found comparable DMD outcomes versus standard of care at facilities, a benefit for retention of patients in care with ACs, and apparent benefits in terms of retention (for AC patients) and sustained viral suppression (for DMD patients) among men. This suggests the importance of alternative service delivery models for men and of community-based strategies to decongest primary healthcare facilities. Because these strategies also reduce patient inconvenience and decongest clinics, comparable outcomes are a potential success. The cost of all five AGL interventions and possible effects on reducing clinic congestion should be investigated. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02536768.

Effectiveness of interventions for unstable patients on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: results of a cluster-randomised evaluation.

BACKGROUND: As loss from HIV care is an ongoing challenge globally, interventions are needed for patients who don't achieve or maintain ART stability. The 2015 South African National Adherence Guidelines (AGL) for Chronic Diseases include two interventions targeted at unstable patients: early tracing of patients who miss visits (TRIC) and enhanced adherence counselling (EAC). METHODS: As part of a cluster-randomised evaluation at 12 intervention and 12 control clinics in four provinces, intervention sites implemented the AGL interventions, while control sites retained standard care. We report on outcomes of EAC for patients with an elevated viral load (>400 copies/ml) and for TRIC patients who missed a visit by >5 days. We estimated risk differences (RD) of 3 and 12-month viral resuppression (<400 copies/ml) and 12-month retention with cluster adjustment using generalised estimating equations and controlled for imbalances using difference-in-differences compared to all eligible in 2015, prior to intervention roll-out. RESULTS: For EAC, we had 358 intervention and 505 control site patients (61% female, median ART initiation CD4 count 154 cells/µl). We found no difference between arms in 3-month resuppression (RD: -1.7%; 95%CI: -4.3% to 0.9%), but <20% of patients had a repeat viral load within 3 months (19.8% intervention, 13.5% control). Including the entire clinic population eligible for EAC with a repeat viral load at all evaluation sites (n = 934), intervention sites showed a small increase in 3-month resuppression (28% vs. 25%, RD 3.0%; 95%CI: -2.7% to 8.8%). Adjusting for baseline differences increased the RD to 8.1% (95% CI: -0.1% to 17.2%). However, we found no differences in 12-month suppression (RD: 1.5%; 95% CI: -14.1% to 17.1% but suppression was low overall at 40%) or retention (RD: 2.8%; 95% CI: -7.5% to 13.2%). For TRIC, we enrolled 155 at intervention sites and 248 at control sites (44% >40 years, 67% female, median CD4 count 212 cells/µl). We found no difference between groups in return to care by 12 months (RD: -6.8%; 95% CI: -17.7% to 4.8%). During the study period, control sites continued to use tracing within standard care, however, potentially masking intervention effects. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced adherence counselling showed no benefit over 12 months. Implementation of the tracing intervention under the new guidelines was similar to the standard of care. Interventions that aim to return unstable patients to care should incorporate active monitoring to determine if the interventions are effective.

Effectiveness of and Financial Returns to Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in South Africa: An Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Empirical studies and population-level policy simulations show the importance of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in generalized epidemics. This paper complements available scenario-based studies (projecting costs and outcomes over some policy period, typically spanning decades) by adopting an incremental approach-analyzing the expected consequences of circumcising one male individual with specific characteristics in a specific year. This approach yields more precise estimates of VMMC's cost-effectiveness and identifies the outcomes of current investments in VMMC (e.g., within a fiscal budget period) rather than of investments spread over the entire policy period. METHODS/FINDINGS: The model has three components. We adapted the ASSA2008 model, a demographic and epidemiological model of the HIV epidemic in South Africa, to analyze the impact of one VMMC on HIV incidence over time and across the population. A costing module tracked the costs of VMMC and the resulting financial savings owing to reduced HIV incidence over time. Then, we used several financial indicators to assess the cost-effectiveness of and financial return on investments in VMMC. One circumcision of a young man up to age 20 prevents on average over 0.2 HIV infections, but this effect declines steeply with age, e.g., to 0.08 by age 30. Net financial savings from one VMMC at age 20 are estimated at US$617 at a discount rate of 5% and are lower for circumcisions both at younger ages (because the savings occur later and are discounted more) and at older ages (because male circumcision becomes less effective). Investments in male circumcision carry a financial rate of return of up to 14.5% (for circumcisions at age 20). The cost of a male circumcision is refinanced fastest, after 13 y, for circumcisions at ages 20 to 25. Principal limitations of the analysis arise from the long time (decades) over which the effects of VMMC unfold-the results are therefore sensitive to the discount rate applied, and more generally to the future course of the epidemic and of HIV/AIDS-related policies pursued by the government. CONCLUSIONS: VMMC in South Africa is highly effective in reducing both HIV incidence and the financial costs of the HIV response. The return on investment is highest if males are circumcised between ages 20 and 25, but this return on investment declines steeply with age.

The economics, financing and implementation of HIV treatment as prevention: what will it take to get there?

The 2013 Lancet Commission Report, Global Health 2035, rightly pointed out that we are at a unique place in history where a "grand convergence" of health initiatives to reduce both infectious diseases, and child and maternal mortality--diseases that still plague low income countries--would yield good returns in terms of development and health outcomes. This would also be a good economic investment. Such investments would support achieving health goals of reducing under-five (U5) mortality to 16 per 1000 live births, reducing deaths due to HIV/AIDS to 8 per 100,000 population, and reducing annual TB deaths to 4 per 100,000 population. Treatment as prevention (TasP) holds enormous potential in reducing HIV transmission, and morbidity and mortality associated with HIV/AIDS--and therefore contributing to Global Health 2035 goals. However, TasP requires large financial investments and poses significant implementation challenges. In this review, we discuss the potential effectiveness, financing and implementation of TasP. Overall, we conclude that TasP shows great promise as a cost-effective intervention to address the dual aims of reducing new HIV infections and reducing the global burden of HIV-related disease. Successful implementation will be no easy feat, though. The dramatic increases in the numbers of persons who need antiretroviral therapy (ART) under a TasP approach will pose enormous challenges at all stages of the HIV treatment cascade: HIV diagnosis, antiretroviral (ARV) initiation, ARV adherence and retention, and increased drug resistance with long-term enrolment on ART. Overcoming these implementation challenges will require targeted implementation, not focusing exclusively on TasP, most-at-risk population (MARP)-friendly services for key populations, integrating services, task shifting, more efficient programme management, balancing supply and demand, integration into universal health coverage efforts, demand creation, improved ART retention and adherence strategies, the use of incentives to improve HIV treatment outcomes and reduce unit costs, continued operational research and tapping into technological innovations.

The effect of interview method on self-reported sexual behavior and perceptions of community norms in Botswana.

Since self-reports of sensitive behaviors play an important role in HIV/AIDS research, the accuracy of these measures has often been examined. In this paper we (1) examine the effect of three survey interview methods on self-reported sexual behavior and perceptions of community sexual norms in Botswana, and (2) introduce an interview method to research on self-reported sexual behavior in sub-Saharan Africa. Comparing across these three survey methods (face-to-face, ballot box, and randomized response), we find that ballot box and randomized response surveys both provide higher reports of sensitive behaviors; the results for randomized response are particularly strong. Within these overall patterns, however, there is variation by question type; additionally the effect of interview method differs by sex. We also examine interviewer effects to gain insight into the effectiveness of these interview methods, and our results suggest that caution be used when interpreting the differences between survey methods.

Measuring Integrated Care - Methodological Reflections from Monitoring and Evaluation Process of the PHC Plus Pilot Program in Poland.

Introduction: Integrated care is an important strategy for increasing health system performance. Despite its growing significance, detailed evidence on the measurement properties of integrated care instruments remains vague and limited. This article aims to present the Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (M&EF) used in the pilot program of coordinated primary care in Poland. It can serve as an example of Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) concept for the countries taking their first steps in the care integration implementation or establishing PHC reforms. This article belongs to the series of publications entitled: "Highway to hell or stairway to heaven - evaluating complex integrated care models - lessons from the Primary Healthcare Plus pilot program (PHC Plus) in Poland". Methods: The M&EF of the PHC Plus was based on the Theory of Change within which a shift was to take place in the following 4 aspects: (1) change in health outcomes among participating patients; (2) change in health care experience among participating patients; (3) change in the fragmentation of care provided for chronic diseases among participating patients; (4) change in overall spending on health services for the patients in the PHC Plus facilities. Data for the M&EF of the PHC Plus came from two main sources: the National Health Fund (national insurer) database and the results survey questionnaires. Results: Based on the established M&EF of PHC Plus it was possible to monitor and evaluate the change in patients' health outcomes, health experience and health literacy, fragmentation of care index, and overall spending on healthcare services offered in the pilot. Some of the analyzes planned could not be carried out due errors in data reporting systems, the lack of data of adequate quality or the pandemic. However, M&E implementation process provided many insightful information supporting broader PHC reform in Poland. Inclusive process of information and data sharing, discussions with the country health stakeholders and solid analytical background allowed for better informed policy making and scaling up the pilot. Conclusion: M&E process was put in place to help identify interventions, processes and approaches that could be scaled up and implemented at the country level. This approach resulted in broader understanding and acceptance of the proposed reforms in the PHC in Poland, following PHC Plus pilot implementation. Tools and approaches available and used to evaluate care integration in the PHC setting may not fully respond to the PHC and care integration system characteristic and country capacity. Therefore, revised M&E approach should be an integral part of the health policy interventions and further development of the PHC. Care integration specific measurement tools should be considered. Integration is a complex, multidimensional concept that requires measurement at multiple levels, including the patient level, the provider (professional) level, organizational and systems level. The M&E system of care integration requires use of multidimensional approach, complexed data systems, but also active sharing process of key findings. A phased approach is recommended to help researchers define clearly where they are in the research process and show progress on the outcomes' achievement. Some simplification of the M&EF used in the PHC Plus is recommended to increase its sustainability without loosing key analytics.

HIV treatment as prevention: principles of good HIV epidemiology modelling for public health decision-making in all modes of prevention and evaluation.

Public health responses to HIV epidemics have long relied on epidemiological modelling analyses to help prospectively project and retrospectively estimate the impact, cost-effectiveness, affordability, and investment returns of interventions, and to help plan the design of evaluations. But translating model output into policy decisions and implementation on the ground is challenged by the differences in background and expectations of modellers and decision-makers. As part of the PLoS Medicine Collection "Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections"--which focuses on the contribution of modelling to current issues in HIV prevention--we present here principles of "best practice" for the construction, reporting, and interpretation of HIV epidemiological models for public health decision-making on all aspects of HIV. Aimed at both those who conduct modelling research and those who use modelling results, we hope that the principles described here will become a shared resource that facilitates constructive discussions about the policy implications that emerge from HIV epidemiology modelling results, and that promotes joint understanding between modellers and decision-makers about when modelling is useful as a tool in quantifying HIV epidemiological outcomes and improving prevention programming.

Factors associated with the adoption of a digital health service by patent proprietary medicine vendors (PPMVs) in Lagos, Nigeria.

Background: Patent proprietary medicine vendors (PPMVs) are the first point of care for low-income Nigerian households. They are likely to have an important role in a digital care pathway established for low-income Nigerian women and children. Yet, little is known about what drives the adoption of digital platforms by PPMVs. Methods: This study explores factors associated with the adoption of a digital service, NaijaCare, created to enable PPMVs to increase the range and quality of products and services they offer. A structured, quantitative, face-to-face survey was conducted among 248 PPMVs in Lagos in February and March 2020. Multivariate analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with the adoption of NaijaCare. Results: Women comprise the majority (67%) of medicine vendors in Lagos. Most medicine vendors (64%) had gotten health training on the job. About a quarter (27%) of medicine vendors reported seeking business advice on the internet. Medicine vendors who had obtained on-the-job training had a 12.31 times higher odds ratio (p < 0.01) of adopting the digital service. Medicine vendors who sought business advice on the internet had a 6.48 times higher odds ratio (p < 0.001) of adopting NaijaCare. Conclusion: The study findings suggest that PPMVs' use of the digital service was driven by their desire to increase business profits. Digital care pathways targeting low-income households should be aligned with the business interests of informal providers.

The impact of financial incentives on HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini: Sitakhela Likusasa, a cluster randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: Incentives conditional on school attendance or on remaining free of sexually transmitted infections have produced mixed results in reducing HIV incidence. METHODS: HIV-negative adolescent girls and young women aged 15-22%-50% of whom were out of school-were recruited from 293 clusters in Eswatini from urban (30%) and rural areas (70%).Financial incentives conditional on education attendance were randomly allocated at the cluster level. All participants were further individually randomised into eligibility for a raffle incentive conditional on random selection into the raffle, on negative tests for syphilis and Trichomonas vaginalis and on being a raffle winner, creating four subarms in a 2×2 factorial design: no-intervention, raffle incentive, education incentive and raffle & education incentive. Randomisation was unblinded to participants.Logistic regressions were used in intention-to-treat analysis of HIV incidence over 3 years to estimate the impact of incentives conditional on school attendance and raffle incentives conditional on remaining sexually transmitted infection free. RESULTS: The study recruited 4389 HIV-negative participants, who were distributed into four subarms: no intervention (n=1068), raffle incentive (n=1162), education incentive (n=1088) and raffle and education incentive (n=1071).At endline, 272 participants from 3772 for whom endline data were collected, tested positive for HIV. HIV incidence among participants in education treatment arm was significantly lower than in the education control arm, 6.34% (119/1878) versus 8.08% (153/1894) (p=0.041); OR: 0.766 (0.598 to 0.981); adjusted OR (aOR): 0.754 (0.585 to 0.972). Compared with the no intervention subarm, HIV incidence in the raffle and education incentive subarm was significantly lower, 5.79% (54/878) versus 8.84% (80/905); OR: 0.634 (0.443 to 0.907); aOR: 0.622 (0.433 to 0.893), while it was not significantly lower in the raffle incentive subarm. CONCLUSION: Financial incentives conditional on education participation significantly reduced HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini and appear to be a promising tool for prevention in high HIV prevalence settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Western Institutional Review Board-protocol number 20 141 630.Eswatini National Health Research Review Board-FWA00026661.Pan African Clinical Trials Registry-PACTR201811609257043.

Recalibrating the notion of modelling for policymaking during pandemics.

COVID-19 disease models have aided policymakers in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) with many critical decisions. Many challenges remain surrounding their use, from inappropriate model selection and adoption, inadequate and untimely reporting of evidence, to the lack of iterative stakeholder engagement in policy formulation and deliberation. These issues can contribute to the misuse of models and hinder effective policy implementation. Without guidance on how to address such challenges, the true potential of such models may not be realised. The COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration (CMCC) was formed to address this gap. CMCC is a global collaboration between decision-makers from LMICs, modellers and researchers, and development partners. To understand the limitations of existing COVID-19 disease models (primarily from high income countries) and how they could be adequately support decision-making in LMICs, a desk review of modelling experience during the COVID-19 and past disease outbreaks, two online surveys, and regular online consultations were held among the collaborators. Three key recommendations from CMCC include: A 'fitness-for-purpose' flowchart, a tool that concurrently walks policymakers (or their advisors) and modellers through a model selection and development process. The flowchart is organised around the following: policy aims, modelling feasibility, model implementation, model reporting commitment. Holmdahl and Buckee (2020) A 'reporting standards trajectory', which includes three gradually increasing standard of reports, 'minimum', 'acceptable', and 'ideal', and seeks collaboration from funders, modellers, and decision-makers to enhance the quality of reports over time and accountability of researchers. Malla et al. (2018) A framework for "collaborative modelling for effective policy implementation and evaluation" which extends the definition of stakeholders to funders, ground-level implementers, public, and other researchers, and outlines how each can contribute to modelling. We advocate for standardisation of modelling processes and adoption of country-owned model through iterative stakeholder participation and discuss how they can enhance trust, accountability, and public ownership to decisions.

Impacts of COVID-19-related service disruptions on TB incidence and deaths in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru: Implications for national TB responses.

Initial global-level estimates reported in June 2020 by the World Health Organization suggested that levels of disruption to TB service delivery could be as high as 25%-50% and result in an additional 6·3 million cases of tuberculosis (TB) and an additional 1·4 million TB-related deaths attributable to COVID-19 between 2020 and 2025. Quarterly epidemiological estimates and programmatic TB data capturing disruption levels to each TB service were collected by National TB Programmes in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru. Data from 2019, for a pre-COVID-19 baseline, and throughout 2020, together with the NTP's COVID-19 response plans, were used within Optima TB models to project TB incidence and deaths over five years because of COVID-19-related disruptions, and the extent to which those impacts may be mitigated through proposed catch-up strategies in each country. Countries reported disruptions of up to 64% to demand-driven TB diagnosis. However, TB service availability disruptions were shorter and less severe, with TB treatment experiencing levels of disruption of up to 21%. We predicted that under the worse-case scenario cumulative new latent TB infections, new active TB infections, and TB-related deaths could increase by up to 23%, 11%, and 20%, respectively, by 2024. However, three of the five countries were on track to mitigate these increases to 3% or less by maintaining TB services in 2021 and 2022 and by implementing proposed catch-up strategies. Indonesia was already experiencing the worse-case scenario, which could lead to 270,000 additional active TB infections and 36,000 additional TB-related deaths by the end of 2024. The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to negatively affect progress towards 2035 End TB targets, especially in countries already off-track. Findings highlight both successful TB service delivery adaptions in 2020 and the need to proactively maintain TB service availability despite potential future waves of more transmissible COVID-19 variants.

Technology and Universal Health Coverage: Examining the role of digital health.

While there is tremendous promise to leverage technology for UHC, it will require smart, context-specific policies and programming with ample flexibility to adapt as needs and opportunities change - and with robust safeguards to protect privacy, data security, and equity. The health sector, by its very nature of being data intensive, lends itself to the use of technology for analytics to improve health outcomes, respond to public health crises, and efficiently and equitably allocate resources. The first imperative in considering the use of digital health to expand UHC is to remember that digital health is a means to an end, and only one of the available means. Efforts leveraging digital health to move along that path to universality have taken many forms: to increase the number of people reached, to provide enhanced service coverage, and to reduce the financial burdens on individuals in need of health care. Making use of digital health interventions is an evolving process, not a one-time decision point. It is context specific and needs a clear vision to move from pilot interventions to scaled implementation. Technology can be a key tool in achieving UHC but its use has to be strategic, judicious, and cognizant of issues around privacy and patient rights.

Using allocative efficiency analysis to inform health benefits package design for progressing towards Universal Health Coverage: Proof-of-concept studies in countries seeking decision support.

BACKGROUND: Countries are increasingly defining health benefits packages (HBPs) as a way of progressing towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Resources for health are commonly constrained, so it is imperative to allocate funds as efficiently as possible. We conducted allocative efficiency analyses using the Health Interventions Prioritization tool (HIPtool) to estimate the cost and impact of potential HBPs in three countries. These analyses explore the usefulness of allocative efficiency analysis and HIPtool in particular, in contributing to priority setting discussions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HIPtool is an open-access and open-source allocative efficiency modelling tool. It is preloaded with publicly available data, including data on the 218 cost-effective interventions comprising the Essential UHC package identified in the 3rd Edition of Disease Control Priorities, and global burden of disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. For these analyses, the data were adapted to the health systems of Armenia, Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe. Local data replaced global data where possible. Optimized resource allocations were then estimated using the optimization algorithm. In Armenia, optimized spending on UHC interventions could avert 26% more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), but even highly cost-effective interventions are not funded without an increase in the current health budget. In Côte d'Ivoire, surgical interventions, maternal and child health and health promotion interventions are scaled up under optimized spending with an estimated 22% increase in DALYs averted-mostly at the primary care level. In Zimbabwe, the estimated gain was even higher at 49% of additional DALYs averted through optimized spending. CONCLUSIONS: HIPtool applications can assist discussions around spending prioritization, HBP design and primary health care transformation. The analyses provided actionable policy recommendations regarding spending allocations across specific delivery platforms, disease programs and interventions. Resource constraints exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic increase the need for formal planning of resource allocation to maximize health benefits.

Short-term Outcomes from a Cluster Randomized Evaluation of Adherence Clubs as Part of Differentiated HIV Care in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Differentiated care has been proposed to improve HIV treatment outcomes. In June 2016, South Africa's National Department of Health in collaboration with researchers began an evaluation of its National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases (AGL) which was being rolled-out by NDOH to public sector health facilities. METHODS: The evaluation has a cluster-randomized design with 12 intervention and 12 control facilities in 4 provinces. Follow up was by passive surveillance using clinical records. Enrollment occurred between June-December 2016. Our primary outcome was receipt of ART through Adherence Clubs (AC) within the first 4 months after AC eligibility. We compared crude results, used baseline covariate adjustment and difference-in-differences approaches to assess effects of ACs. RESULTS: We enrolled 275 patients from ACs and 294 control arm patients. About 57% were <40 years and just over 70% were female. At ART initiation average CD4 count was 268 cells (range 157-379). ACs showed a benefit in crude analyses of a 4 percentage point increase in patients picking up their medication (RD 4.4%; 95% CI: -0.6% to 9.4%) which increased to 6.7 percentage points (95% CI: 3.4% to 10.4%) after adjusting for baseline differences. The difference remained after adjusting for clusters and baseline covariates, though the confidence interval widened (RD 7.5%; 95% CI: -1.3% to 16.2%). CONCLUSIONS: We found early benefits to ACs in terms of medication pickups, though our results lacked precision. As we progress to long-term outcomes, it is important to see if these early gains translate into improved retention and viral suppression.

Opportunities for improved HIV prevention and treatment through budget optimization in Eswatini.

INTRODUCTION: Eswatini achieved a 44% decrease in new HIV infections from 2014 to 2019 through substantial scale-up of testing and treatment. However, it still has one of the highest rates of HIV incidence in the world, with 14 infections per 1,000 adults 15-49 years estimated for 2017. The Government of Eswatini has called for an 85% reduction in new infections by 2023 over 2017 levels. To make further progress towards this target and to achieve maximum health gains, this study aims to model optimized investments of available HIV resources. METHODS: The Optima HIV model was applied to estimate the impact of efficiency strategies to accelerate prevention of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. We estimated the number of infections and deaths that could be prevented by optimizing HIV investments. We optimize across HIV programs, then across service delivery modalities for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral refill, as well as switching to a lower cost antiretroviral regimen. FINDINGS: Under an optimized budget, prioritising HIV testing for the general population followed by key preventative interventions may result in approximately 1,000 more new infections (2% more) being averted by 2023. More infections could be averted with further optimization between service delivery modalities across the HIV cascade. Scaling-up index and self-testing could lead to 100,000 more people getting tested for HIV (25% more tests) with the same budget. By prioritizing Fast-Track, community-based, and facility-based antiretroviral refill options, an estimated 30,000 more people could receive treatment, 17% more than baseline or US$5.5 million could be saved, 4% of the total budget. Finally, switching non-pregnant HIV-positive adults to a Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy regimen and concentrating delivery of VMMC to existing fixed facilities over mobile clinics, US$4.5 million (7% of total budget) and US$6.6 million (10% of total budget) could be saved, respectively. SIGNIFICANCE: With a relatively short five-year timeframe, even under a substantially increased and optimized budget, Eswatini is unlikely to reach their ambitious national prevention target by 2023. However, by optimizing investment of the same budget towards highly cost-effective VMMC, testing, and treatment modalities, further reductions in HIV incidence and cost savings could be realized.

"Patients are not the same, so we cannot treat them the same" - A qualitative content analysis of provider, patient and implementer perspectives on differentiated service delivery models for HIV treatment in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: In 2014, the South African government adopted a differentiated service delivery (DSD) model in its "National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases (HIV, TB and NCDs)" (AGL) to strengthen the HIV care cascade. We describe the barriers and facilitators of the AGL implementation as experienced by various stakeholders in eight intervention and control sites across four districts. METHODS: Embedded within a cluster-randomized evaluation of the AGL, we conducted 48 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with healthcare providers, 16 IDIs with Department of Health and implementing partners and 24 focus group discussions (FGDs) with three HIV patient groups: new, stable and those not stable on treatment or not adhering to care. IDIs were conducted from August 2016 to August 2017; FGDs were conducted in January to February 2017. Content analysis was guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. Findings were triangulated among respondent types to elicit barriers and facilitators to implementation. RESULTS: New HIV patients found counselling helpful but intervention respondents reported sub-optimal counselling and privacy concerns as barriers to initiation. Providers felt insufficiently trained for this intervention and were confused by the simultaneous rollout of the Universal Test and Treat strategy. For stable patients, repeat prescription collection strategies (RPCS) were generally well received. Patients and providers concurred that RPCS reduced congestion and waiting times at clinics. There was confusion though, among providers and implementers, around implementation of RPCS interventions. For patients not stable on treatment, enhanced counselling and tracing patients lost-to-follow-up were perceived as beneficial to adherence behaviours but faced logistical challenges. All providers faced difficulties accessing data and identifying patients in need of tracing. Congestion at clinics and staff attitude were perceived as barriers preventing patients returning to care. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of DSD models at scale is complex but this evaluation identified several positive aspects of AGL implementation. The positive perception of RPCS interventions and challenges managing patients not stable on treatment aligned with results from the larger evaluation. While some implementation challenges may resolve with experience, ensuring providers and implementers have the necessary training, tools and resources to operationalize AGL effectively is critical to the overall success of South Africa's HIV control strategy.

Differentiated HIV care in South Africa: the effect of fast-track treatment initiation counselling on ART initiation and viral suppression as partial results of an impact evaluation on the impact of a package of services to improve HIV treatment adherence.

INTRODUCTION: In response to suboptimal adherence and retention, South Africa's National Department of Health developed and implemented National Adherence Guidelines for Chronic Diseases. We evaluated the effect of a package of adherence interventions beginning in January 2016 and report on the impact of Fast-Track Treatment Initiation Counselling (FTIC) on ART initiation, adherence and retention. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized mixed-methods evaluation in 4 provinces at 12 intervention sites which implemented FTIC and 12 control facilities providing standard of care. Follow-up was by passive surveillance using clinical records. We included data on subjects eligible for FTIC between 08 Jan 2016 and 07 December 2016. We adjusted for pre-intervention differences using difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses controlling for site-level clustering. RESULTS: We enrolled 362 intervention and 368 control arm patients. Thirty-day ART initiation was 83% in the intervention and 82% in the control arm (RD 0.5%; 95% CI: -5.0% to 6.0%). After adjusting for baseline ART initiation differences and covariates using DiD we found a 6% increase in ART initiation associated with FTIC (RD 6.3%; 95% CI: -0.6% to 13.3%). We found a small decrease in viral suppression within 18 months (RD -2.8%; 95% CI: -9.8% to 4.2%) with no difference after adjustment (RD: -1.9%; 95% CI: -9.1% to 5.4%) or when considering only those with a viral load recorded (84% intervention vs. 86% control). We found reduced crude 6-month retention in intervention sites (RD -7.2%; 95% CI: -14.0% to -0.4%). However, differences attenuated by 12 months (RD: -3.6%; 95% CI: -11.1% to 3.9%). Qualitative data showed FTIC counselling was perceived as beneficial by patients and providers. CONCLUSIONS: We saw a short-term ART-initiation benefit to FTIC (particularly in districts where initiation prior to intervention was lower), with no reductions but also no improvement in longer-term retention and viral suppression. This may be due to lack of fidelity to implementation and delivery of those components that support retention and adherence. FTIC must continue to be implemented alongside other interventions to achieve the 90-90-90 cascade and fidelity to post-initiation counselling sessions must be monitored to determine impact on longer-term outcomes. Understanding the cost-benefit and role of FTIC may then be warranted.