Constrained groupwise additive index models.

In environmental epidemiology, there is wide interest in creating and using comprehensive indices that can summarize information from different environmental exposures while retaining strong predictive power on a target health outcome. In this context, the present article proposes a model called the constrained groupwise additive index model (CGAIM) to create easy-to-interpret indices predictive of a response variable, from a potentially large list of variables. The CGAIM considers groups of predictors that naturally belong together to yield meaningful indices. It also allows the addition of linear constraints on both the index weights and the form of their relationship with the response variable to represent prior assumptions or operational requirements. We propose an efficient algorithm to estimate the CGAIM, along with index selection and inference procedures. A simulation study shows that the proposed algorithm has good estimation performances, with low bias and variance and is applicable in complex situations with many correlated predictors. It also demonstrates important sensitivity and specificity in index selection, but non-negligible coverage error on constructed confidence intervals. The CGAIM is then illustrated in the construction of heat indices in a health warning system context. We believe the CGAIM could become useful in a wide variety of situations, such as warning systems establishment, and multipollutant or exposome studies.

The Effect of Perceived Threats and Response Efficacy on Adaptation to Smog: An Instrumental Variables Design.

Threats and response efficacyperceptions are core conceptsof the protection motivationtheory, and recent years have witnessed a considerable growth of research on the effect of thesefactors on adaptation to air pollution. However, few studies use appropriate designs to deal with endogeneity issues, a situation that raises serious questions on the validity of their findings. To overcome this problem, this study uses the instrumental variables method to test the effect of perceived threats and response efficacy on adaptation to smog episodes. The results of this study show that the conjunction of a moderate to high perception of threats with a high perception of response efficacy is positively associated with the adoption of the recommended behavior. The increase of perceived threats does not seem to have an effect on the behavior of individuals with low response efficacy perception. Moreover, change in perceived response efficacy does not lead to any change in the behavior of individuals with low threat perceptions. Concerning policy implications, this study suggests that smog warnings and health communication campaigns could be more effective if they provide accurate information simultaneously on air pollution level, its adverse effects, and advice on how to mitigate these effects.

A heat-health watch and warning system with extended season and evolving thresholds.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have developed heat-health watch and warning systems (HHWWS) or early-warning systems to mitigate the health consequences of extreme heat events. HHWWS usually focuses on the four hottest months of the year and imposes the same threshold over these months. However, according to climate projections, the warm season is expected to extend and/or shift. Some studies demonstrated that health impacts of heat waves are more severe when the human body is not acclimatized to the heat. In order to adapt those systems to potential heat waves occurring outside the hottest months of the season, this study proposes specific health-based monthly heat indicators and thresholds over an extended season from April to October in the northern hemisphere. METHODS: The proposed approach, an adoption and extension of the HHWWS methodology currently implemented in Quebec (Canada). The latter is developed and applied to the Greater Montreal area (current population 4.3 million) based on historical health and meteorological data over the years. This approach consists of determining excess mortality episodes and then choosing monthly indicators and thresholds that may involve excess mortality. RESULTS: We obtain thresholds for the maximum and minimum temperature couple (in °C) that range from (respectively, 23 and 12) in April, to (32 and 21) in July and back to (25 and 13) in October. The resulting HHWWS is flexible, with health-related thresholds taking into account the seasonality and the monthly variability of temperatures over an extended summer season. CONCLUSIONS: This adaptive and more realistic system has the potential to prevent, by data-driven health alerts, heat-related mortality outside the typical July-August months of heat waves. The proposed methodology is general and can be applied to other regions and situations based on their characteristics.

Squeezed helical elastica.

We theoretically study the conformations of a helical semi-flexible filament confined to a flat surface. This squeezed helix exhibits a variety of unexpected shapes resembling circles, waves or spirals depending on the material parameters. We explore the conformation space in detail and show that the shapes can be understood as the mutual elastic interaction of conformational quasi-particles. Our theoretical results are potentially useful to determine the material parameters of such helical filaments in an experimental setting.

A multilevel analysis to explain self-reported adverse health effects and adaptation to urban heat: a cross-sectional survey in the deprived areas of 9 Canadian cities.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies the characteristics and perceptions related to the individual, the dwelling and the neighbourhood of residence associated with the prevalence of self-reported adverse health impacts and an adaptation index when it is very hot and humid in summer in the most disadvantaged sectors of the nine most populous cities of Québec, Canada, in 2011. METHODS: The study uses a cross-sectional design and a stratified representative sample; 3485 people (individual-level) were interviewed in their residence. They lived in 1647 buildings (building-level) in 87 most materially and socially disadvantaged census dissemination areas (DA-level). Multilevel analysis was used to perform 3-level models nested one in the other to examine individual impacts as well as the adaptation index. RESULTS: For the prevalence of impacts, which is 46 %, the logistic model includes 13 individual-level indicators (including air conditioning and the adaptation index) and 1 building-level indicator. For the adaptation index, with values ranging from -3 to +3, the linear model has 10 individual-level indicators, 1 building-level indicator and 2 DA-level indicators. Of all these indicators, 9 were associated to the prevalence of impacts only and 8 to the adaptation index only. CONCLUSION: This 3-level analysis shows the differential importance of the characteristics of residents, buildings and their surroundings on self-reported adverse health impacts and on adaptation (other than air conditioning) under hot and humid summer conditions. It also identifies indicators specific to impacts or adaptation. People with negative health impacts from heat rely more on adaptation strategies while low physical activity and good dwelling/building insulation lead to lower adaptation. Better neighbourhood walkability favors adaptations other than air conditioning. Thus, adaptation to heat in these neighbourhoods seems reactive rather than preventive. These first multi-level insights pave the way for the development of a theoretical framework of the process from heat exposure to impacts and adaptation for research, surveillance and public health interventions at all relevant levels.

An effective public health program to reduce urban heat islands in Québec, Canada.

In 2005, the Government of the Province of Québec, Canada, adopted the Climate Change Action Plan for 2006 - 2012. The Institut national de santé publique du Québec (National Institute of Public Health of Québec), charged with implementing the health adaptation component of the Plan, worked to mitigate urban heat islands (UHI) by funding and evaluating 40 pilot projects. These projects explored different methods of fighting UHIs by greening cities in a participative and mobilizing approach led mainly by non-governmental organizations and municipalities. An assessment of temperatures before and after implementing various methods demonstrated that some actions enabled significant gains of coolness and more efficiently mitigated heat (reduction of concrete/asphalt surfaces, increasing vegetation, etc.). An assessment of quality of life showed that projects were positively received by users, especially by those living in vulnerable situations. A lifecycle analysis showed that from the environmental perspective, UHI mitigation measures that do not require fertilization or maintenance are preferable. Finally, communication efforts that raise awareness of UHI and mitigation are of significant importance to program success.

An observatory to gather and disseminate information on the health-related effects of environmental and climate change.

This report sought to critically examine proposals, potentials, and challenges of environmental health observatories with an emphasis on climate change processes. A critical review of existing environmental health observatories was performed, examining their purposes, potential audiences, and technological platforms. The implementation of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory (C&HO) is described, and two stages are defined: (i) the requirement analysis and negotiation stage that identified the national and regional institutional players and their roles as data producers/users; and (ii) thematic health-related workshops that reviewed water-related diseases, vector-borne diseases, extreme climate events, and health problems derived from forest fires. The C&HO is an example of making information on climate and health available through an Internet site where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. Complex queries are made by users and can be executed over multiple sites, geographically distributed, with all technical details hidden from the end user. At this stage of the C&HO prototype, alongside the queries, users can also produce semi-qualitative graphs and maps. A multi-scale approach was developed using the platform by setting up sentinel sites. Building a successful observatory is a participatory process that involves choosing indicators, data sources, information technology, and languages to best reach different audiences, such as researchers, citizens, public health professionals, and decisionmakers.

National survey of psoriasis flares after 2009 monovalent H1N1/seasonal vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a common chronic immune-mediated disease resulting from interactions of a genetic background with environmental triggering factors such as stress and infection. So far, there is very limited information available about the impact of vaccine stimuli on psoriasis course. OBJECTIVE: To collect cases of psoriasis flares occurring after vaccination through a national survey. METHODS: We investigated cases of onset or flare of psoriasis occurring within 3 months following the 2009 monovalent H1N1/seasonal vaccination during the campaign of the 2009-2010 flu seasons in France. RESULTS: Ten patients, 6 men and 4 women with a median age of 44 years (range 9-88), were reported with a psoriasis of new onset (n = 7) or with a worsening of previously diagnosed psoriasis (n = 3) within a median time period of 8 days following vaccination. Nine of them presented with a mixed guttate/plaque clinical phenotype, and 1 showed 2 successive generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP) flares after 2 different vaccine injections. CONCLUSION: The short time interval between vaccination and onset of psoriasis flares, the lack of other triggers and the flaring sequence following 2 different vaccines in a GPP patient suggest a possible association between the 2009 monovalent H1N1/seasonal vaccination and psoriasis flaring in the collected cases. Nevertheless, the likely very low incidence of psoriasis following vaccination emphasizes the safe profile and the relevance of vaccination strategies in psoriasis patients, especially in candidates for immunosuppressive treatments.

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada.

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56% of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

Children's ability to recognize emotions from partial and complete facial expressions.

The authors investigated children's ability to recognize emotions from the information available in the lower, middle, or upper face. School-age children were shown partial or complete facial expressions and asked to say whether they corresponded to a given emotion (anger, fear, surprise, or disgust). The results indicate that 5-year-olds were able to recognize fear, anger, and surprise from partial facial expressions. Fear was better recognized from the information located in the upper face than those located in the lower face. A similar pattern of results was found for anger, but only in girls. Recognition improved between 5 and 10 years old for surprise and anger, but not for fear and disgust.

Health impacts of the July 2010 heat wave in Québec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: One of the consequences of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves which can cause serious health impacts. In Québec, July 2010 was marked by an unprecedented heat wave in recent history. The purpose of this study is to estimate certain health impacts of this heat wave. METHODS: The crude daily death and emergency department admission rates during the heat wave were analyzed in relation to comparison periods using 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: During the heat wave, the crude daily rates showed a significant increase of 33% for deaths and 4% for emergency department admissions in relation to comparison periods. No displacement of mortality was observed over a 60-day horizon. CONCLUSIONS: The all-cause death indicator seems to be sufficiently sensitive and specific for surveillance of exceedences of critical temperature thresholds, which makes it useful for a heat health-watch system. Many public health actions combined with the increased use of air conditioning in recent decades have contributed to a marked reduction in mortality during heat waves. However, an important residual risk remains, which needs to be more vigorously addressed by public health authorities in light of the expected increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves and the aging of the population.

A general and flexible methodology to define thresholds for heat health watch and warning systems, applied to the province of Québec (Canada).

Several watch and warning systems have been established in the world in recent years to prevent the effects of heat waves. However, many of these approaches can be applied only in regions with perfect conditions (e.g., enough data, stationary series or homogeneous regions). Furthermore, a number of these approaches do not account for possible trend in mortality and/or temperature series, whereas others are generally not adapted to regions with low population densities or low daily mortality levels. In addition, prediction based on multiple days preceding the event can be less accurate if it attributes the same importance to each of these days, since the forecasting accuracy actually decreases with the period. The aim of the present study was to identify appropriate indicators as well as flexible and general thresholds that can be applied to a variety of regions and conditions. From a practical point of view, the province of Québec constitutes a typical case where a number of the above-mentioned constraints are present. On the other hand, until recently, the province's watch and warning system was based on a study conducted in 2005, covering only the city of Montreal and applied to the whole province. The proposed approach is applied to each one of the other health regions of the province often experiencing low daily counts of mortality and presenting trends. The first constraint led to grouping meteorologically homogeneous regions across the province in which the number of deaths is sufficient to carry out the appropriate data analyses. In each region, mortality trends are taken into account. In addition, the proposed indicators are defined by a 3-day weighted mean of maximal and minimal temperatures. The sensitivity of the results to the inclusion of traumatic deaths is also checked. The application shows that the proposed method improved the results in terms of sensitivity, specificity and number of yearly false alarms, compared to those of the existing and other classical approaches. An additional criterion based on the Humidex is applied in a second step and a local validation is applied to historical observations at reference forecasting stations. An integrated heat health watch and warning system with thresholds that are adapted to the regional climate has thus been established for each sub-region of the province of Quebec and became operational in June 2010.

Future temperature-related excess mortality under climate change and population aging scenarios in Canada.

OBJECTIVE: Climate change is expected to increase global temperatures. How temperature-related mortality risk will change is not completely understood, and how future demographic changes will affect temperature-related mortality needs to be clarified. We evaluate temperature-related mortality across Canada until 2099, accounting for age groups and scenarios of population growth. METHODS: We used daily counts of non-accidental mortality for 2000 to 2015 for all 111 health regions across Canada, incorporating in the study both urban and rural areas. A two-part time series analysis was used to estimate associations between mean daily temperatures and mortality. First, current and future daily mean temperature time series simulations were developed from Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from past and projected climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Next, excess mortality due to heat and cold and the net difference were projected to 2099, also accounting for different regional and population aging scenarios. RESULTS: For 2000 to 2015, we identified 3,343,311 non-accidental deaths. On average, a net increase of 17.31% (95% eCI: 13.99, 20.62) in temperature-related excess mortality under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario is expected for Canada in 2090-2099, which represents a greater burden than a scenario that assumed strong levels of greenhouse gas mitigation policies (net increase of 3.29%; 95% eCI: 1.41, 5.17). The highest net increase was observed among people aged 65 and over, and the largest increases in both net and heat- and cold-related mortality were observed in population scenarios that incorporated the highest rates of aging. CONCLUSION: Canada may expect net increases in temperature-related mortality under a higher emissions climate change scenario, compared to one assuming sustainable development. Urgent action is needed to mitigate future climate change impacts.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Les changements climatiques devraient accroître les températures mondiales. La façon dont le risque de mortalité lié à la température évoluera n'est pas entièrement comprise, et la façon dont les changements démographiques futurs influeront sur la mortalité liée à la température doit être clarifiée. Nous étudions la mortalité liée à la température au Canada jusqu'en 2099, en tenant compte des groupes d'âge et des scénarios de croissance démographique. MéTHODES: Nous avons utilisé les nombres quotidiens de mortalité non accidentelle pour 2000 à 2015 pour toutes les 111 régions socio sanitaires du Canada, en intégrant dans l'étude des régions urbaines et rurales. Une analyse en séries chronologiques en deux parties a été utilisée pour estimer les associations entre les températures quotidiennes moyennes et la mortalité. Premièrement, des simulations de séries chronologiques de températures moyennes quotidiennes actuelles et futures ont été élaborées à partir d'ensembles de modèles climatiques du Projet de comparaison croisée 6 (CMIP6) du modèle couplé à partir de scénarios de changements climatiques passés et projetés dans le cadre de voies socioéconomiques partagées (SSP). Ensuite, la surmortalité due à la chaleur et au froid et la différence nette ont été projetées jusqu'en 2099, ce qui tient également compte de différents scénarios régionaux et de vieillissement de la population. RéSULTATS: De 2000 à 2015, nous avons recensé 3 343 311 décès non accidentels. En moyenne, une augmentation nette de 17,31% (eCI à 95%: 13,99, 20,62) de la mortalité excessive liée à la température dans le cadre d'un scénario d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre plus élevées est prévue pour le Canada en 2090­2099, ce qui représente un fardeau plus lourd qu'un scénario qui suppose des niveaux élevés de politiques d'atténuation des émissions de gaz (augmentation nette de 3,29%; eCI à 95%: 1,41, 5,17). La plus forte augmentation nette a été observée chez les personnes de 65 ans ou plus, et les plus fortes augmentations de la mortalité nette, de mortalité liée à la chaleur et au froid ont été observées dans les scénarios de population qui comprenaient les taux de vieillissement les plus élevés. CONCLUSION: Le Canada pourrait s'attendre à des augmentations nettes de la mortalité liée à la température dans le cadre d'un scénario de changement climatique à émissions plus élevées, comparativement à un scénario de développement durable. Des mesures urgentes sont nécessaires pour atténuer les répercussions futures des changements climatiques.

Environmental and demographic risk factors for campylobacteriosis: do various geographical scales tell the same story?

BACKGROUND: Campylobacter is a common cause of bacterial gastro-enteritis characterized by multiple environmental sources and transmission pathways. Ecological studies can be used to reveal important regional characteristics linked to campylobacteriosis risk, but their results can be influenced by the choice of geographical units of analysis. This study was undertaken to compare the associations between the incidence of campylobacteriosis in Quebec, Canada and various environmental characteristics using seven different sets of geographical units. METHODS: For each set of geographical unit, a conditional autoregressive model was used to model the incidence of reported cases of campylobacteriosis according to environmental (poultry density, ruminant density, slaughterhouse presence, temperature, and precipitation) and demographic (population density, level of education) characteristics. Models were compared in terms of number of significant predictors, differences in direction and magnitude of predictors, and fit of the models. RESULTS: In general, the number of significant predictors was reduced as the aggregation level increased. More aggregated scales tend to show larger but less precise estimates for all variables, with the exception of slaughterhouse presence. Regional characteristics associated with an increased regional risk of campylobacteriosis, for at least some geographical units, were high ruminant density, high poultry density, high population density, and presence of a large poultry slaughterhouse, whereas a reduction in risk was associated with a lower percentage of people with diplomas, a lower level of precipitation, and warmer temperature. Two clusters of elevated residual risk were observed, with different location and size depending on the geographical unit used. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results suggest that the use of municipality or census consolidated subdivision were the most optimal scales for studying environmental determinants of campylobacteriosis at a regional level. This study highlights the need for careful selection and analysis of geographical units when using ecological study designs.

Data-Enhancement Strategies in Weather-Related Health Studies.

Although the relationship between weather and health is widely studied, there are still gaps in this knowledge. The present paper proposes data transformation as a way to address these gaps and discusses four different strategies designed to study particular aspects of a weather-health relationship, including (i) temporally aggregating the series, (ii) decomposing the different time scales of the data by empirical model decomposition, (iii) disaggregating the exposure series by considering the whole daily temperature curve as a single function, and (iv) considering the whole year of data as a single, continuous function. These four strategies allow studying non-conventional aspects of the mortality-temperature relationship by retrieving non-dominant time scale from data and allow to study the impact of the time of occurrence of particular event. A real-world case study of temperature-related cardiovascular mortality in the city of Montreal, Canada illustrates that these strategies can shed new lights on the relationship and outlines their strengths and weaknesses. A cross-validation comparison shows that the flexibility of functional regression used in strategies (iii) and (iv) allows a good fit of temperature-related mortality. These strategies can help understanding more accurately climate-related health.

Heat-related mortality prediction using low-frequency climate oscillation indices: Case studies of the cities of Montréal and Québec, Canada.

Heat-related mortality is an increasingly important public health burden that is expected to worsen with climate change. In addition to long-term trends, there are also interannual variations in heat-related mortality that are of interest for efficient planning of health services. Large-scale climate patterns have an important influence on summer weather and therefore constitute important tools to understand and predict the variations in heat-related mortality. Methods: In this article, we propose to model summer heat-related mortality using seven climate indices through a two-stage analysis using data covering the period 1981-2018 in two metropolitan areas of the province of Québec (Canada): Montréal and Québec. In the first stage, heat attributable fractions are estimated through a time series regression design and distributed lag nonlinear specification. We consider different definitions of heat. In the second stage, estimated attributable fractions are predicted using climate index curves through a functional linear regression model. Results: Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is the best predictor of heat-related mortality in both Montréal and Québec and that it can predict up to 20% of the interannual variability. Conclusion: We found evidence that one climate index is predictive of summer heat-related mortality. More research is needed with longer time series and in different spatial contexts. The proposed analysis and the results may nonetheless help public health authorities plan for future mortality related to summer heat.

An open source web application for the surveillance and prevention of the impacts on public health of extreme meteorological events: the SUPREME system.

BACKGROUND: Every year, many deaths or health problems are directly linked to heat waves. Consequently, numerous jurisdictions around the world have developed intervention plans that are employed during extreme heat events; beyond their emergency sections, these plans generally include preventive measures to be implemented each year. Over the last five years, local and regional information systems have been implemented in a few Canadian cities for surveillance purposes. However, until recently, no such systems existed at the provincial level. In the context of the Government of Quebec's 2006-2012 Action Plan on Climate Change, a real-time integrated system for the surveillance and monitoring of extreme heat events has been implemented on a provincial level. The system is a component of a broader approach that would also monitor the public health impacts of all types of extreme meteorological events. RESULTS: After conducting a detailed needs analysis, the Quebec National Institute for Public Health developed and implemented an integrated web application leveraging open source software for the real-time Surveillance and Prevention of the impacts of Extreme Meteorological Events on public health, called the SUPREME system. Its first field use involved heat waves. This decision-support system is based on open source software and is composed of four modules: (1) data acquisition and integration, (2) risk analysis and alerts, (3), cartographic application, and (4) information dissemination - climate change and health portal. The system is available to health specialists through a secure web information portal and provides access to weather forecasts, historic and real-time indicators (including deaths and hospital admissions), alerts and various cartographic data used for conducting prevention activities and launching emergency measures. CONCLUSIONS: The SUPREME system was implemented and used during the summer of 2010. It served as an important decision-making tool during the July 2010 heat wave in the province of Quebec, Canada. Planned improvements for 2011 include the integration of data related to other risk factors for other extreme events to the system. The next steps will be to provide access to the application to other groups of specialists that are involved in the prevention, monitoring, or analysis of extreme meteorological events and their effects on community health and well-being.

Do patients with recurrent episodes of campylobacteriosis differ from those with a single disease event?

BACKGROUND: Although Campylobacter is the leading cause of reported bacterial gastro-enteritis in industrialized countries, little is known on its recurrence. The objective of this study is to describe the risk and the patient characteristics of recurrent episodes of human campylobacteriosis reported in Quebec. METHODS: Laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacteriosis reported in the province of Quebec, Canada, through ongoing surveillance between 1996 and 2006 were analyzed. The risk of having a recurrent episode of campylobacteriosis was described using life table estimates. Logistic regression was used to assess if gender, age and patient residential location were associated with an increased risk of recurrence. RESULTS: Compared to the baseline risk, the risk for a recurrent disease event was higher for a period of four years and followed a decreasing trend. This increased risk of a recurrent event was similar across gender, but higher for people from rural areas and lower for children under four years of age. CONCLUSIONS: These results may suggest the absence of durable immunity or clinical resilience following a first episode of campylobacteriosis and periodical re-exposure, at least among cases reported through the surveillance system.

Cardiovascular Health Peaks and Meteorological Conditions: A Quantile Regression Approach.

Cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are influenced by meteorological conditions, such as temperature or snowfall. Relationships between cardiovascular health and meteorological conditions are usually studied based on specific meteorological events or means. However, those studies bring little to no insight into health peaks and unusual events far from the mean, such as a day with an unusually high number of hospitalizations. Health peaks represent a heavy burden for the public health system; they are, however, usually studied specifically when they occur (e.g., the European 2003 heatwave). Specific analyses are needed, using appropriate statistical tools. Quantile regression can provide such analysis by focusing not only on the conditional median, but on different conditional quantiles of the dependent variable. In particular, high quantiles of a health issue can be treated as health peaks. In this study, quantile regression is used to model the relationships between conditional quantiles of cardiovascular variables and meteorological variables in Montreal (Canada), focusing on health peaks. Results show that meteorological impacts are not constant throughout the conditional quantiles. They are stronger in health peaks compared to quantiles around the median. Results also show that temperature is the main significant variable. This study highlights the fact that classical statistical methods are not appropriate when health peaks are of interest. Quantile regression allows for more precise estimations for health peaks, which could lead to refined public health warnings.

Spatial variability of climate effects on ischemic heart disease hospitalization rates for the period 1989-2006 in Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Studies have suggested an association between climate variables and circulatory diseases. The short-term effect of climate conditions on the incidence of ischemic heart disease (IHD) over the 1989-2006 period was examined for Quebec's 18 health regions. METHODS: Analyses were carried out for two age groups. A GAM statistical model, that blends the properties of generalized linear models with additive models, was used to fit the standardized daily hospitalization rates for IHD and their relationship with climatic conditions up to two weeks prior to the day of admission, controlling for time trends, day of the season and gender. RESULTS: Results show that, in most of Quebec's regions, cold temperatures during winter months and hot episodes during the summer months are associated with an increase of up to 12% in the daily hospital admission rate for IHD but also show decreased risks in some areas. The risk of hospitalization is higher for men and women of 45-64 years and varies spatially. In most regions, exposure to a continuous period of cold or hot temperature was more harmful than just one isolated day of extreme weather. Men aged 45-64 years showed higher risk levels of IHD than women of the same age group. In most regions, the annual maximum of daily IHD admissions for 65 years old was reached earlier in the season for both genders and both seasons compared to younger age groups. The effects of meteorological variables on the daily IHD admissions rate were more pronounced in regions with high smoking prevalence and high deprivation index. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the differential effects of cold and hot periods on IHD in Quebec health regions depending on age, sex, and other factors such as smoking, behaviour and deprivation levels.