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BackgroundTravellers are generally considered good sentinels for infectious disease surveillance.AimTo investigate whether health data from travellers arriving from Africa to Europe could provide evidence to support surveillance systems in Africa.MethodsWe examined disease occurrence and estimated risk of infection among travellers arriving from Africa to Europe from 2015 to 2019 using surveillance data of arthropod-borne disease cases collected through The European Surveillance System (TESSy) and flight passenger volumes from the International Air Transport Association.ResultsMalaria was the most common arthropod-borne disease reported among travellers from Africa, with 34,235 cases. The malaria travellers' infection rate (TIR) was 28.8 cases per 100,000 travellers, which is 36 and 144 times higher than the TIR for dengue and chikungunya, respectively. The malaria TIR was highest among travellers arriving from Central and Western Africa. There were 956 and 161 diagnosed imported cases of dengue and chikungunya, respectively. The highest TIR was among travellers arriving from Central, Eastern and Western Africa for dengue and from Central Africa for chikungunya in this period. Limited numbers of cases of Zika virus disease, West Nile virus infection, Rift Valley fever and yellow fever were reported.ConclusionsDespite some limitations, travellers' health data can efficiently complement local surveillance data in Africa, particularly when the country or region has a sub-optimal surveillance system. The sharing of anonymised traveller health data between regions/continents should be encouraged.
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Artrópodos , Fiebre Chikungunya , Dengue , Infección por el Virus Zika , Virus Zika , Animales , Humanos , Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Viaje , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , África/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BackgroundUsutu virus (USUV) is a flavivirus with an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes; humans are incidental dead-end hosts. In Europe, the virus was first detected in Italy in 1996; since then, it has spread to many European countries.AimWe aimed to report on the epidemiology, surveillance, diagnosis and prevention of USUV infection in humans, mosquitoes and other animals in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) from 2012 to 2021.MethodsWe collected information through a literature review, an online survey and an expert meeting.ResultsEight countries reported USUV infection in humans (105 cases, including 12 [corrected] with neurological symptoms), 15 countries in birds and seven in mosquitoes. Infected animals were also found among pets, wild and zoo animals. Usutu virus was detected primarily in Culex pipiens but also in six other mosquito species. Detection of USUV infection in humans is notifiable only in Italy, where it is under surveillance since 2017 and now integrated with surveillance in animals in a One Health approach. Several countries include USUV infection in the differential diagnosis of viral encephalitis and arbovirus infections. Animal USUV infection is not notifiable in any EU/EEA country.ConclusionHuman USUV infections, mainly asymptomatic and, less frequently, with a febrile illness or a neuroinvasive disease, have been reported in several EU/EEA countries, where the virus is endemic. Climate and environmental changes are expected to affect the epidemiology of USUV. A One Health approach could improve the monitoring of its evolution in Europe.
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Culicidae , Infecciones por Flavivirus , Flavivirus , Animales , Humanos , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Encefalitis Viral , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Infecciones por Flavivirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Flavivirus/epidemiología , Vigilancia en Salud PúblicaRESUMEN
BackgroundTick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a vaccine-preventable disease involving the central nervous system. TBE became a notifiable disease on the EU/EEA level in 2012.AimWe aimed to provide an updated epidemiological assessment of TBE in the EU/EEA, focusing on spatiotemporal changes.MethodsWe performed a descriptive analysis of case characteristics, time and location using data of human TBE cases reported by EU/EEA countries to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control with disease onset in 2012-2020. We analysed data at EU/EEA, national, and subnational levels and calculated notification rates using Eurostat population data. Regression models were used for temporal analysis.ResultsFrom 2012 to 2020, 19 countries reported 29,974 TBE cases, of which 24,629 (98.6%) were autochthonous. Czechia, Germany and Lithuania reported 52.9% of all cases. The highest notification rates were recorded in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia (16.2, 9.5 and 7.5 cases/100,000 population, respectively). Fifty regions from 10 countries, had a notification rate ≥ 5/100,000. There was an increasing trend in number of cases during the study period with an estimated 0.053 additional TBE cases every week. In 2020, 11.5% more TBE cases were reported than predicted based on data from 2016 to 2019. A geographical spread of cases was observed, particularly in regions situated north-west of known endemic regions.ConclusionA close monitoring of ongoing changes to the TBE epidemiological situation in Europe can support the timely adaption of vaccination recommendations. Further analyses to identify populations and geographical areas where vaccination programmes can be of benefit are needed.
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Encefalitis Transmitida por Garrapatas , Vacunas Virales , Humanos , Encefalitis Transmitida por Garrapatas/epidemiología , Encefalitis Transmitida por Garrapatas/prevención & control , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Alemania/epidemiología , VacunaciónRESUMEN
BackgroundArthropod vectors such as ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and biting midges are of public and veterinary health significance because of the pathogens they can transmit. Understanding their distributions is a key means of assessing risk. VectorNet maps their distribution in the EU and surrounding areas.AimWe aim to describe the methodology underlying VectorNet maps, encourage standardisation and evaluate output.Methods: Vector distribution and surveillance activity data have been collected since 2010 from a combination of literature searches, field-survey data by entomologist volunteers via a network facilitated for each participating country and expert validation. Data were collated by VectorNet members and extensively validated during data entry and mapping processes.ResultsAs of 2021, the VectorNet archive consisted of ca 475,000 records relating to > 330 species. Maps for 42 species are routinely produced online at subnational administrative unit resolution. On VectorNet maps, there are relatively few areas where surveillance has been recorded but there are no distribution data. Comparison with other continental databases, namely the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and VectorBase show that VectorNet has 5-10 times as many records overall, although three species are better represented in the other databases. In addition, VectorNet maps show where species are absent. VectorNet's impact as assessed by citations (ca 60 per year) and web statistics (58,000 views) is substantial and its maps are widely used as reference material by professionals and the public.ConclusionVectorNet maps are the pre-eminent source of rigorously validated arthropod vector maps for Europe and its surrounding areas.
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Artrópodos , Humanos , Animales , Mosquitos Vectores , Vectores de Enfermedades , Vectores Artrópodos , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BackgroundRodent-borne viruses such as orthohantaviruses and arenaviruses cause considerable disease burden with regional and temporal differences in incidence and clinical awareness. Therefore, it is important to regularly evaluate laboratory diagnostic capabilities, e.g. by external quality assessments (EQA).AimWe wished to evaluate the performance and diagnostic capability of European expert laboratories to detect orthohantaviruses and lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and human antibody response towards orthohantaviruses.MethodsWe conducted an EQA in 2021; molecular panels consisted of 12 samples, including different orthohantaviruses (Seoul, Dobrava-Belgrade (DOBV), Puumala (PUUV) and Hantaan orthohantavirus), LCMV and negative controls. Serological panels consisted of six human serum samples reactive to PUUV, DOBV or negative to orthohantaviruses. The EQA was sent to 25 laboratories in 20 countries.ResultsThe accuracy of molecular detection of orthohantaviruses varied (50â67%, average 62%) among 16 participating laboratories, while LCMV samples were successfully detected in all 11 participating laboratories (91-100%, average 96%). The accuracy of serological diagnosis of acute and past orthohantavirus infections was on average 95% among 20 participating laboratories and 82% in 19 laboratories, respectively. A variety of methods was used, with predominance of in-house assays for molecular tests, and commercial assays for serological ones.ConclusionSerology, the most common tool to diagnose acute orthohantavirus infections, had a high accuracy in this EQA. The molecular detection of orthohantaviruses needs improvement while LCMV detection (performed in fewer laboratories) had 95% accuracy. Further EQAs are recommended to be performed periodically to monitor improvements and challenges in the diagnostics of rodent-borne diseases.
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Infecciones por Hantavirus , Orthohantavirus , Humanos , Virus de la Coriomeningitis Linfocítica/genética , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Infecciones por Hantavirus/diagnóstico , Anticuerpos AntiviralesRESUMEN
BackgroundDengue is a disease with major impacts on public health in tropical and subtropical countries. In Europe, in the past decade, few autochthonous outbreaks were described.AimWe aimed to identify factors associated with frequency of dengue virus infection among European travellers and at assessing how surveillance data could support preparedness against autochthonous outbreaks within Europe.MethodsWe performed a descriptive analysis of travel-related dengue cases reported by European countries from 2015 through 2019. Using flight passenger data, we calculated travellers' infection rates (TIR). We investigated the following associations: (i) between TIR and incidence rate in selected countries of infection and (ii) between number of travel-related cases and occurrence of autochthonous outbreaks within Europe.ResultsThere were 11,478 travel-related dengue cases and the TIR was 2.8 cases per 100,000 travellers. Most cases were infected in Asia (71%), predominantly in south-eastern Asia. The TIR was highest among travellers returning from Asia (6.1/100,000). There was an association between the incidence rate in the country of infection and the TIR but no association between the number of travel-related cases and occurrence of autochthonous outbreaks in Europe.ConclusionsThe likelihood of infection in travellers is a function of the ongoing epidemiological situation in the country of exposure. The number of travel-related cases alone is not sufficient to estimate the likelihood of autochthonous outbreaks where vectors are present in Europe. Additional contributing factors such as adequate vectorial capacity and suitable environmental conditions are required.
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Dengue , Viaje , Dengue/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Enfermedad Relacionada con los ViajesRESUMEN
Following the report of a non-travel-associated cluster of monkeypox cases by the United Kingdom in May 2022, 41 countries across the WHO European Region have reported 21,098 cases and two deaths by 23 August 2022. Nowcasting suggests a plateauing in case notifications. Most cases (97%) are MSM, with atypical rash-illness presentation. Spread is mainly through close contact during sexual activities. Few cases are reported among women and children. Targeted interventions of at-risk groups are needed to stop further transmission.
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Exantema , Mpox , Animales , Niño , Brotes de Enfermedades , Femenino , Humanos , Mpox/diagnóstico , Mpox/epidemiología , Monkeypox virus , Organización Mundial de la SaludRESUMEN
A questionnaire survey of animal and human health authorities in Europe revealed that leishmaniases are not notifiable in all countries with autochthonous cases. Few countries implement surveillance and control targeting both animal and human infections. Leishmaniases are considered emergent diseases in most countries, and lack of resources is a challenge for control.
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Leishmaniasis , Animales , Europa (Continente) , Unión Europea , HumanosRESUMEN
BackgroundWest Nile virus (WNV) circulates in an enzootic cycle involving mosquitoes and birds; humans are accidental hosts.AimWe analysed human WNV infections reported between 2010 and 2018 to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to better understand WNV epidemiology.MethodsWe describe probable and confirmed autochthonous human cases of WNV infection reported by European Union (EU) and EU enlargement countries. Cases with unknown clinical manifestation or with unknown place of infection at NUTS 3 or GAUL 1 level were excluded from analysis.ResultsFrom southern, eastern and western Europe, 3,849 WNV human infections and 379 deaths were reported. Most cases occurred between June and October. Two large outbreaks occurred, in 2010 (n = 391) and in 2018 (n = 1,993). The outbreak in 2018 was larger than in all previous years and the first cases were reported unusually early. The number of newly affected areas (n = 45) was higher in 2018 than in previous years suggesting wider spread of WNV.ConclusionReal-time surveillance of WNV infections is key to ensuring that clinicians and public health authorities receive early warning about the occurrence of cases and potential unusual seasonal patterns. Human cases may appear shortly after first detection of animal cases. Therefore, public health authorities should develop preparedness plans before the occurrence of human or animal WNV infections.
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Culicidae , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental , Virus del Nilo Occidental , Animales , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Unión Europea , Humanos , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Autochthonous outbreaks of chikungunya have occurred in the European Union (EU) after virus introduction by infected travelers. We reviewed the surveillance data of travel-related cases reported in the EU during 2012-2018 to document factors associated with increased infection rates among travelers and to assess how surveillance data could support preparedness against secondary transmission and timely control of outbreaks. Thirteen EU countries reported 2,616 travel-related chikungunya cases. We observed 3 successive epidemiologic periods; the highest number of cases (75%) occurred during 2014-2015, when most cases were associated with the Caribbean and South America. The highest infection rates among travelers were observed during the same phase. Although surveillance of travel-related cases is relevant for estimating the infection risk for travelers, we could not identify a relationship between the number of infected travelers and a higher likelihood of secondary transmission in the EU.
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Fiebre Chikungunya , Virus Chikungunya , Región del Caribe , Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Unión Europea , Humanos , América del Sur , Viaje , Enfermedad Relacionada con los ViajesRESUMEN
Two months after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the possibility of established and widespread community transmission in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) is becoming more likely. We provide scenarios for use in preparedness for a possible widespread epidemic. The EU/EEA is moving towards the 'limited sustained transmission' phase. We propose actions to prepare for potential mitigation phases and coordinate efforts to protect the health of citizens.
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Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Planificación en Desastres , Epidemias , Planificación en Salud , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidad , COVID-19 , Comorbilidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Unión Europea , Predicción , Humanos , Internacionalidad , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Salud Pública , Factores de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2 , IncertidumbreRESUMEN
Rabies is enzootic in over one hundred countries worldwide. In the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA), the vast majority of human rabies cases are travellers bitten by dogs in rabies-enzootic countries, mostly in Asia and Africa. Thus, EU/EEA travellers visiting rabies enzootic countries should be aware of the risk of being infected with the rabies virus when having physical contact with mammals. They should consider pre-exposure vaccination following criteria recommended by the World Health Organization and if unvaccinated, immediately seek medical attention in case of bites or scratches from mammals. As the majority of the EU/EEA countries are free from rabies in mammals, elimination of the disease (no enzootic circulation of the virus and low number of imported cases) has been achieved by 2020. However, illegal import of potentially infected animals, mainly dogs, poses a risk to public health and might threaten the elimination goal. Additionally, newly recognised bat lyssaviruses represent a potential emerging threat as the rabies vaccine may not confer protective immunity. To support preparedness activities in EU/EEA countries, guidance for the assessment and the management of the public health risk related to rabies but also other lyssaviruses, should be developed.
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Lyssavirus , Vacunas Antirrábicas/administración & dosificación , Rabia/prevención & control , Infecciones por Rhabdoviridae/prevención & control , Viaje , Zoonosis , Animales , Enfermedades de los Perros/epidemiología , Enfermedades de los Perros/prevención & control , Perros , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Unión Europea , Humanos , Rabia/epidemiología , Rabia/transmisión , Infecciones por Rhabdoviridae/epidemiología , Infecciones por Rhabdoviridae/transmisión , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) circulate in several European Union (EU) countries. The risk of transfusion-transmitted West Nile virus (TT-WNV) has been recognized, and preventive blood safety measures have been implemented. We summarized the applied interventions in the EU countries and assessed the safety of the blood supply by compiling data on WNV positivity among blood donors and on reported TT-WNV cases. The paucity of reported TT-WNV infections and the screening results suggest that blood safety interventions are effective. However, limited circulation of WNV in the EU and presumed underrecognition or underreporting of TT-WNV cases contribute to the present situation. Because of cross-reactivity between genetically related flaviviruses in the automated nucleic acid test systems, USUV-positive blood donations are found during routine WNV screening. The clinical relevance of USUV infection in humans and the risk of USUV to blood safety are unknown.
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Donantes de Sangre , Seguridad de la Sangre , Unión Europea , Infecciones por Flavivirus/epidemiología , Flavivirus , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/epidemiología , Virus del Nilo Occidental , Transfusión Sanguínea , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/epidemiología , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Infecciones por Flavivirus/prevención & control , Infecciones por Flavivirus/transmisión , Infecciones por Flavivirus/virología , Humanos , Incidencia , Vigilancia en Salud Pública , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/prevención & control , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/transmisión , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/virologíaRESUMEN
West Nile virus (WNV) infection is notifiable in humans and equids in the European Union (EU). An area where a human case is detected is considered affected until the end of the mosquito transmission season (week 48) and blood safety measures have to be implemented. We used human and equine case notifications between 2013 and 2017 to define the WNV distribution in the EU and to investigate the relevance of using equine cases as a complementary trigger for blood safety measures. Adding areas with equine cases to the definition of an affected area would have a major impact on blood safety measures. Adding areas with equine cases where human cases have been reported in the past would increase the timeliness of blood safety measures with only a limited impact. Although the occurrence of human and/or equine cases confirms virus circulation in the EU, no evidence was found that occurrence of equine cases leads to human cases and vice versa. We conclude that information about equine data should contribute to raising awareness among public health experts and trigger enhanced surveillance. Further studies are required before extending the definition of affected areas to areas with human and/or equine cases.
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Seguridad de la Sangre , Notificación de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Enfermedades de los Caballos/virología , Salud Única , Vigilancia en Salud Pública/métodos , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/sangre , Virus del Nilo Occidental/patogenicidad , Animales , Culicidae/virología , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Reservorios de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Unión Europea , Caballos , Humanos , Salud Pública , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/prevención & control , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/virologíaRESUMEN
Autochthonous outbreaks of chikungunya and dengue during the past decade showed that continental Europe is vulnerable to Aedes albopictus-borne infections. Ae. albopictus has spread geographically, resulting in more people exposed to risk. Timely application of adequate mosquito suppression measures may delay, or even prevent, the vector population from crossing the potential epidemic abundance threshold should a pathogen be introduced. Health authorities should be on alert to detect early cases to prevent autochthonous outbreaks.
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Infecciones por Alphavirus/epidemiología , Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Mosquitos Vectores/virología , Aedes/virología , Animales , Fiebre Chikungunya/transmisión , Dengue/transmisión , Vectores de Enfermedades , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Modelos Biológicos , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
Since December 2016, Brazil has faced a large outbreak of yellow fever with ca 1,500 confirmed human cases. In the first 2 months of 2018, Brazil reported almost as many cases as in 2017 as a whole. In these 2 months, five imported cases were reported among unvaccinated European travellers. Three had travelled to Ilha Grande, a popular destination among European tourists. Physicians and European travellers visiting Brazil should follow yellow fever vaccination recommendations.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Viaje , Fiebre Amarilla/diagnóstico , Brasil/epidemiología , Humanos , Enfermedad Relacionada con los Viajes , Vacunación , Fiebre Amarilla/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In Europe, surveillance indicates that the 2018 West Nile fever transmission season started earlier than in previous years and with a steeper increase of locally-acquired human infections. Between 2014 and 2017, European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) and EU enlargement countries notified five to 25 cases in weeks 25 to 31 compared with 168 cases in 2018. Clinicians and public health authorities should be alerted to ensure timely implementation of prevention measures including blood safety measures.
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Culicidae/virología , Notificación de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Brotes de Enfermedades , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/diagnóstico , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/transmisión , Virus del Nilo Occidental/aislamiento & purificación , Animales , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Mosquitos Vectores , Estaciones del Año , Vigilancia de Guardia , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/epidemiología , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/virologíaRESUMEN
This article uses the experience of five European countries to review the integrated approaches (human, animal and vector) for surveillance and monitoring of West Nile virus (WNV) at national and European levels. The epidemiological situation of West Nile fever in Europe is heterogeneous. No model of surveillance and monitoring fits all, hence this article merely encourages countries to implement the integrated approach that meets their needs. Integration of surveillance and monitoring activities conducted by the public health authorities, the animal health authorities and the authorities in charge of vector surveillance and control should improve efficiency and save resources by implementing targeted measures. The creation of a formal interagency working group is identified as a crucial step towards integration. Blood safety is a key incentive for public health authorities to allocate sufficient resources for WNV surveillance, while the facts that an effective vaccine is available for horses and that most infected animals remain asymptomatic make the disease a lesser priority for animal health authorities. The examples described here can support other European countries wishing to strengthen their WNV surveillance or preparedness, and also serve as a model for surveillance and monitoring of other (vector-borne) zoonotic infections.
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Vectores de Enfermedades , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/epidemiología , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/veterinaria , Virus del Nilo Occidental/aislamiento & purificación , Animales , Culicidae/virología , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Caballos , Humanos , Masculino , Fiebre del Nilo Occidental/virología , Virus del Nilo Occidental/inmunologíaRESUMEN
Between 2014 and 2015, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control was informed of an increase in numbers of Salmonella enterica serotype Chester cases with travel to Morocco occurring in six European countries. Epidemiological and microbiological investigations were conducted. In addition to gathering information on the characteristics of cases from the different countries in 2014, the epidemiological investigation comprised a matched case-case study involving French patients with salmonellosis who travelled to Morocco that year. A univariate conditional logistic regression was performed to quantify associations. The microbiological study included a whole genome sequencing (WGS) analysis of clinical and non-human isolates of S. Chester of varied place and year of isolation. A total of 162 cases, mostly from France, followed by Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark and Sweden were reported, including 86 (53%) women. The median age per country ranged from 3 to 38 years. Cases of S. Chester were more likely to have eaten in a restaurant and visited the coast of Morocco. The results of WGS showed five multilocus sequence types (ST), with 96 of 153 isolates analysed clustering into a tight group that corresponded to a novel ST, ST1954. Of these 96 isolates, 46 (48%) were derived from food or patients returning from Morocco and carried two types of plasmids containing either qnrS1 or qnrB19 genes. This European-wide outbreak associated with travel to Morocco was likely a multi-source outbreak with several food vehicles contaminated by multidrug-resistant S. Chester strains.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Intoxicación Alimentaria por Salmonella/epidemiología , Infecciones por Salmonella/epidemiología , Salmonella enterica/aislamiento & purificación , Viaje , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Preescolar , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pruebas de Sensibilidad Microbiana , Persona de Mediana Edad , Marruecos , Tipificación de Secuencias Multilocus , Filogenia , Plásmidos , Intoxicación Alimentaria por Salmonella/microbiología , Infecciones por Salmonella/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Salmonella/microbiología , Salmonella enterica/clasificación , Salmonella enterica/genética , Serogrupo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: No autochthonous human cases of Japanese encephalitis (JE) have been reported to date in the European Union (EU). In this study, we assess the likelihood of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) introduction and transmission within the EU and propose outbreak response measures. RISK ASSESSMENT: Given the global geographical distribution of JEV, the probability of virus introduction into the EU is currently very low, with viremic bird migration being the most plausible pathway of introduction. However, this likelihood would significantly increase if the virus were to become established in the Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia or Africa. Considering the environmental conditions that are expected to be conducive for virus circulation, there is a high likelihood of virus transmission within the EU after its introduction in environmentally suitable areas. The spread of the virus within the EU would likely occur through the movement of wild birds, pigs and mosquitoes. MITIGATION: To mitigate or potentially contain the emergence of JE in the EU, early detection of both human and animal cases will be crucial.