Vanadium: A U.S. Perspective on an Understudied Metal.

Vanadium is an element that is little known except to those who manufacture high-performance iron alloys and other widely used metal products that are indispensable for creating improved product performance across a variety of final-use sectors. We report here on deriving a detailed material flow cycle for vanadium in the United States for 1992-2021, the most recent year for which detailed data are available. The steels [tool steel, alloy steels, and high-strength low-alloy (HSLA) steels] are responsible for about half of the cumulative vanadium demand (167 Gg), with significantly smaller fractions being used to create catalysts, titanium-vanadium alloys, and several smaller product groups. These products flow to five end-use sectors, transport (61 Gg) and industrial machinery (62 Gg) being the largest. At end of product life, the vanadium-containing tool steels and catalysts are largely recycled, while most of the vanadium in carbon steels, alloy steels, HSLA steels, and other vanadium use sectors is functionally lost.

Global Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production and Associated Resource Decoupling: 2010-2050.

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) methodology has previously been developed to assess the intensity of anthropogenic extraction of biomass resources. However, there is limited analysis concerning future trends of HANPP. Here we present four scenarios for global biomass demand and HANPPharv (the most key component of HANPP) from 2010 to 2050 by incorporating data on expanded historical drivers and disaggregated biomass demand (food, wood material, and fuelwood). The results show that the biomass demand has the lowest value in the equitability world scenario (an egalitarian vision) and the highest value in the security foremost scenario (an isolationist vision). The biomass demand for food and materials increases over time, while fuelwood demand decreases over time. Global HANPPharv rises to between 8.5 and 10.1 Pg C/yr in 2050 in the four scenarios, 14-35% above its value in 2010, and some 50% of HANPPharv is calculated to be crop residues, wood residues, and food losses in the future. HANPPharv in developing regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America) increases faster than that in more-developed regions (North America and Europe), due to urbanization, population growth, and increasing income. Decoupling of HANPPharv and socioeconomic development is also discussed in this work.

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

In-use product stocks link manufactured capital to natural capital.

In-use stock of a product is the amount of the product in active use. In-use product stocks provide various functions or services on which we rely in our daily work and lives, and the concept of in-use product stock for industrial ecologists is similar to the concept of net manufactured capital stock for economists. This study estimates historical physical in-use stocks of 91 products and 9 product groups and uses monetary data on net capital stocks of 56 products to either approximate or compare with in-use stocks of the corresponding products in the United States. Findings include the following: (i) The development of new products and the buildup of their in-use stocks result in the increase in variety of in-use product stocks and of manufactured capital; (ii) substitution among products providing similar or identical functions reflects the improvement in quality of in-use product stocks and of manufactured capital; and (iii) the historical evolution of stocks of the 156 products or product groups in absolute, per capita, or per-household terms shows that stocks of most products have reached or are approaching an upper limit. Because the buildup, renewal, renovation, maintenance, and operation of in-use product stocks drive the anthropogenic cycles of materials that are used to produce products and that originate from natural capital, the determination of in-use product stocks together with modeling of anthropogenic material cycles provides an analytic perspective on the material linkage between manufactured capital and natural capital.

Criticality of metals and metalloids.

Imbalances between metal supply and demand, real or anticipated, have inspired the concept of metal criticality. We here characterize the criticality of 62 metals and metalloids in a 3D "criticality space" consisting of supply risk, environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction. Contributing factors that lead to extreme values include high geopolitical concentration of primary production, lack of available suitable substitutes, and political instability. The results show that the limitations for many metals important in emerging electronics (e.g., gallium and selenium) are largely those related to supply risk; those of platinum group metals, gold, and mercury, to environmental implications; and steel alloying elements (e.g., chromium and niobium) as well as elements used in high-temperature alloys (e.g., tungsten and molybdenum), to vulnerability to supply restriction. The metals of most concern tend to be those available largely or entirely as byproducts, used in small quantities for highly specialized applications, and possessing no effective substitutes.

On the materials basis of modern society.

It is indisputable that modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Those technologies do many things very well, largely because each material is used for purposes to which it is exquisitely fitted. The result over time has been a steady increase in product performance. We show that this materials complexity has markedly increased in the past half-century and that elemental life cycle analyses characterize rates of recycling and loss. A further concern is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. Should materials availability constraints occur, the use of substitute materials comes to mind. We studied substitution potential by generating a comprehensive summary of potential substitutes for 62 different metals in all their major uses and of the performance of the substitutes in those applications. As we show herein, for a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. This situation largely decouples materials substitution from price, thereby forcing material design changes to be primarily transformative rather than incremental. As wealth and population increase worldwide in the next few decades, scientists will be increasingly challenged to maintain and improve product utility by designing new and better materials, but doing so under potential constraints in resource availability.

Toward Financially Viable Phytoextraction and Production of Plant-Based Palladium Catalysts.

Although a promising technique, phytoextraction has yet to see significant commercialization. Major limitations include metal uptake rates and subsequent processing costs. However, it has been shown that liquid-culture-grown Arabidopsis can take up and store palladium as nanoparticles. The processed plant biomass has catalytic activity comparable to that of commercially available catalysts, creating a product of higher value than extracted bulk metal. We demonstrate that the minimum level of palladium in Arabidopsis dried tissues for catalytic activity comparable to commercially available 3% palladium-on-carbon catalysts was achieved from dried plant biomass containing between 12 and 18 g·kg-1 Pd. To advance this technology, species suitable for in-the-field application: mustard, miscanthus, and 16 willow species and cultivars, were tested. These species were able to grow, and take up, palladium from both synthetic and mine-sourced tailings. Although levels of palladium accumulation in field-suitable species are below that required for commercially available 3% palladium-on-carbon catalysts, this study both sets the target, and is a step toward, the development of field-suitable species that concentrate catalytically active levels of palladium. Life cycle assessment on the phytomining approaches described here indicates that the use of plants to accumulate palladium for industrial applications has the potential to decrease the overall environmental impacts associated with extracting palladium using present-day mining processes.

Building the Material Flow Networks of Aluminum in the 2007 U.S. Economy.

Based on the combination of the U.S. economic input-output table and the stocks and flows framework for characterizing anthropogenic metal cycles, this study presents a methodology for building material flow networks of bulk metals in the U.S. economy and applies it to aluminum. The results, which we term the Input-Output Material Flow Networks (IO-MFNs), achieve a complete picture of aluminum flow in the entire U.S. economy and for any chosen industrial sector (illustrated for the Automobile Manufacturing sector). The results are compared with information from our former study on U.S. aluminum stocks and flows to demonstrate the robustness and value of this new methodology. We find that the IO-MFN approach has the following advantages: (1) it helps to uncover the network of material flows in the manufacturing stage in the life cycle of metals; (2) it provides a method that may be less time-consuming but more complete and accurate in estimating new scrap generation, process loss, domestic final demand, and trade of final products of metals, than existing material flow analysis approaches; and, most importantly, (3) it enables the analysis of the material flows of metals in the U.S. economy from a network perspective, rather than merely that of a life cycle chain.

Structural Investigation of Aluminum in the U.S. Economy using Network Analysis.

Metals are used in numerous products and are sourced via increasingly global and complex supply chains. Monetary input-output tables (MIOT) and network analysis can be applied to intersectoral supply chains and used to analyze structural aspects. We first provide a concise review of the literature related to network analysis applied to MIOTs. On the basis of a physical input-output table (PIOT) table of aluminum in the United States economy in 2007, we identify key sectors and discuss the overall topology of the aluminum network using tools of network analysis. Sectors highly dependent on metal product inputs or sales are identified using weighted degree centrality and their hierarchical organization is explored via clustering. Betweenness centrality and random walk centrality (page rank) are explored as means to identify network bottlenecks and relative sector importance. Aluminum, even though dominated by uses in the automobile, beverage and containers, and construction industries, finds application in a wide range of sectors. Motor vehicle parts manufacturing relies on a large number of upstream and downstream suppliers to function. We conclude by analyzing structural aspects of a subnetwork for automobile manufacturing and discuss how the use of network analysis relates to current criticality analyses of metal and mineral resources.

Metal Dissipation and Inefficient Recycling Intensify Climate Forcing.

In the metals industry, recycling is commonly included among the most viable options for climate change mitigation, because using secondary (recycled) instead of primary sources in metal production carries both the potential for significant energy savings and for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Secondary metal production is, however, limited by the relative quantity of scrap available at end-of-life for two reasons: long product lifespans during use delay the availability of the material for reuse and recycling; and end-of-life recycling rates are low, a result of inefficient collection, separation, and processing. For a few metals, additional losses exist in the form of in-use dissipation. The sum of these lost material flows forms the theoretical maximum potential for future efficiency improvements. Based on a dynamic material flow analysis, we have evaluated these factors from an energy perspective for 50 metals and calculated the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions associated with the supply of lost material from primary sources that would otherwise be used to satisfy demand. A use-by-use examination demonstrates the potential emission gains associated with major application sectors. The results show that minimizing in-use dissipation and constraints to metal recycling have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the metal industry by about 13-23%, corresponding to 1% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Improved alternatives for estimating in-use material stocks.

Determinations of in-use material stocks are useful for exploring past patterns and future scenarios of materials use, for estimating end-of-life flows of materials, and thereby for guiding policies on recycling and sustainable management of materials. This is especially true when those determinations are conducted for individual products or product groups such as "automobiles" rather than general (and sometimes nebulous) sectors such as "transportation". We propose four alternatives to the existing top-down and bottom-up methods for estimating in-use material stocks, with the choice depending on the focus of the study and on the available data. We illustrate with aluminum use in automobiles the robustness of and consistencies and differences among these four alternatives and demonstrate that a suitable combination of the four methods permits estimation of the in-use stock of a material contained in all products employing that material, or in-use stocks of different materials contained in a particular product. Therefore, we anticipate the estimation in the future of in-use stocks for many materials in many products or product groups, for many regions, and for longer time periods, by taking advantage of methodologies that fully employ the detailed data sets now becoming available.

Lost by Design.

In some common uses metals are lost by intent-copper in brake pads, zinc in tires, and germanium in retained catalyst applications being examples. In other common uses, metals are incorporated into products in ways for which no viable recycling approaches exist, examples include selenium in colored glass and vanadium in pigments. To determine quantitatively the scope of these "losses by design", we have assessed the major uses of 56 metals and metalloids, assigning each use to one of three categories: in-use dissipation, currently unrecyclable when discarded, or potentially recyclable when discarded. In-use dissipation affects fewer than a dozen elements (including mercury and arsenic), but the spectrum of elements dissipated increases rapidly if applications from which they are currently unrecyclable are considered. In many cases the resulting dissipation rates are higher than 50%. Among others, specialty metals (e.g., gallium, indium, and thallium) and some heavy rare earth elements are representative of modern technology, and their loss provides a measure of the degree of unsustainability in the contemporary use of materials and products. Even where uses are currently compatible with recycling technologies and approaches, end of life recycling rates are in most cases well below those that are potentially achievable. The outcomes of this research provide guidance in identifying product design approaches for reducing material losses so as to increase element recovery at end-of-life.

Criticality of iron and its principal alloying elements.

Because modern technology depends on reliable supplies of a wide variety of materials and because of increasing concern about those supplies, a comprehensive methodology was created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we apply this methodology to iron and several of its main alloying elements (i.e., vanadium, chromium, manganese, and niobium). These elements represent the basic metals of any industrial society and are vital for national security and economic well-being. Assessments relating to the dimensions of criticality - supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications - for 2008 are made on the global level and for the United States. Evaluations of each of the multiple indicators are presented, with aggregate results plotted in "criticality space", together with Monte Carlo simulation-derived "uncertainty cloud" estimates. Iron has the lowest supply risk, primarily because of its widespread geological occurrence. Vanadium displays the highest cradle-to-gate environmental implications, followed by niobium, chromium, manganese, and iron. Chromium and manganese, both essential in steel making, display the highest vulnerability to supply restriction, largely because substitution or substitution at equal performance is not possible for all end-uses. From a comprehensive perspective, we regard the overall criticality as low for iron and modest for the alloying elements we evaluated.

Metal spectra as indicators of development.

We have assembled extensive information on the cycles of seven industrial metals in 49 countries, territories, or groups of countries, drawn from a database of some 200,000 material flows, and have devised analytical approaches to treat the suite of metals as composing an approach to a national "materials metabolism." We demonstrate that in some of the more developed countries, per capita metal use is more than 10 times the global average. Additionally, countries that use more than the per capita world average of any metal do so for all metals, and vice versa, and countries that are above global average rates of use are very likely to be above global average rates at all stages of metal life cycles from fabrication onward. We show that all countries are strongly dependent on international trade to supply the spectrum of nonrenewable resources that modern technology requires, regardless of their level of development. We also find that the rate of use of the spectrum of metals stock is highly correlated to per capita gross domestic product, as well as to the Human Development Index and the Global Competitiveness Innovation Index. The implication is that as wealth and technology increase in developing countries, strong demand will be created not for a few key resources, but across the entire spectrum of the industrial metals. Long-term metal demand can be estimated given gross domestic product projections; the results suggest overall metal flow into use in 2050 of 5-10 times today's level should supplies permit.

Tracking the metal of the goblins: cobalt's cycle of use.

Cobalt is a vital element in many technological applications, which, together with its increasing end-use in batteries, makes it important to quantify its cycle of use. We have done so for the planet as a whole and for the three principal cobalt-using countries - China, Japan, and the United States - for 2005. Together, China, Japan, and the United States accounted for approximately 65% of the cobalt fabricated and manufactured into end-use products (a total of 37 Gg Co). A time residence model allowed calculations of in-use stock accumulation and recycled and landfilled flows. China had the largest accumulation of in-use stock at some 4.3 Gg Co, over half of which was comprised of consumer battery stock. More than half of the stock accumulation in the United States was estimated to be in aircraft, rocket, and gas turbine engines, with a total in-use stock accumulation of approximately 3 Gg Co. The largest amounts of cobalt landfilled in China, the United States, and the planet were from the "chemical and other uses" category, and Japan's largest landfilled flow was in consumer batteries.

Anthropogenic cycles of the elements: a critical review.

A cycle is the quantitative characterization of the flows of a specific material into, within, and from a given system. An anthropogenic elemental cycle can be static (for a point in time) or dynamic (over a time interval). The about 350 publications collected for this review contain a total of 1074 individual cycle determinations, 989 static and 85 dynamic, for 59 elements; more than 90% of the publications have appeared since 2000. The cycles are of varying quality and completeness, with about 80% at country- or territory-level, addressing 45 elements, and 5% at global-level, addressing 30 elements. Despite their limitations, cycles have often been successful in revealing otherwise unknown information. Most of the elements for which no cycles exist are radioactively unstable or are used rarely and in small amounts. For a variety of reasons, the anthropogenic cycles of only perhaps a dozen elements are well characterized. For all the others, with cycles limited or nonexistent, our knowledge of types of uses, lifetimes in those uses, international trade, losses to the environment, and rates of recycling is quite limited, thereby making attempts to evaluate resource sustainability particularly problematic.

Methodology of metal criticality determination.

A comprehensive methodology has been created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we present and discuss the methodology, which is comprised of three dimensions: supply risk, environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction. Supply risk differs with the time scale (medium or long), and at its more complex involves several components, themselves composed of a number of distinct indicators drawn from readily available peer-reviewed indexes and public information. Vulnerability to supply restriction differs with the organizational level (i.e., global, national, and corporate). The criticality methodology, an enhancement of a United States National Research Council template, is designed to help corporate, national, and global stakeholders conduct risk evaluation and to inform resource utilization and strategic decision-making. Although we believe our methodological choices lead to the most robust results, the framework has been constructed to permit flexibility by the user. Specific indicators can be deleted or added as desired and weighted as the user deems appropriate. The value of each indicator will evolve over time, and our future research will focus on this evolution. The methodology has proven to be sufficiently robust as to make it applicable across the entire spectrum of metals and organizational levels and provides a structural approach that reflects the multifaceted factors influencing the availability of metals in the 21st century.

Criticality of the geological copper family.

Because modern technology depends on reliable supplies of a wide variety of materials, and because of increasing concern about those supplies, a comprehensive methodology has been created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we apply this methodology to the elements of the geological copper family: Cu, As, Se, Ag, Te, and Au. These elements are technologically important, but show a substantial variation in different factors relating to their supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications. Assessments are made on corporate, national, and global levels for year 2008. Evaluations of each of the multiple indicators are presented and the results plotted in "criticality space", together with Monte Carlo simulation-derived "uncertainty cloud" estimates for each of the aggregated evaluations. For supply risk over both the medium term and long term, As is the highest risk of the six metals, with Se and Ag nearly as high. Gold has the most severe environmental implications ranking. Vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) at the corporate level for an invented solar cell manufacturing firm shows Se, Te, and Cu as approximately equal, Cu has the highest VSR at the national level, and Cu and Au have the highest VSRs at the global level. Criticality vector magnitudes are greatest at the global level for As (and then Au and Ag) and at the national level for As and Au; at the corporate level, Se is highest with Te and Cu lower. An extension of this work, now in progress, will provide criticality estimates for several different development scenarios for the period 2010-2050.

Alloy information helps prioritize material criticality lists.

Materials scientists employ metals and alloys that involve most of the periodic table. Nonetheless, materials scientists rarely take material criticality and reuse potential into account. In this work, we expand upon lists of "critical materials" generated by national and regional governments by showing that many materials are employed predominantly as alloying elements, which can be a deterrent to recovery and reuse at end of product life and, likely as a consequence, have low functional end-of-life recycling rates, among other problematic characteristics. We thereby single out six metals for enhanced concern: dysprosium, samarium, vanadium, niobium, tellurium, and gallium. From that perspective, the use of critical metals in low concentrations in alloys unlikely to be routinely recycled should be avoided if possible. If not, provision should be made for better identification and more efficient recycling so that materials designated as critical can have increased potential for more than a single functional use.