Comparing Natural History of Early and Late Onset Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to describe and compare disease course and prognosis of early (ie, disease onset before age 11 years) and late (ie, disease onset after age 11 years) onset pediatric multiple sclerosis. METHODS: Prospectively collected clinical information from Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register of 1993 pediatric multiple sclerosis patients, of whom 172 had early onset, was analyzed. Cox models adjusted for sex, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale score, and disease-modifying treatments and stratified for diagnostic criteria adopted (Poser vs McDonald) were used to assess the risk of reaching irreversible Expanded Disability Status Scale scores of 3, 4, and 6, and conversion to secondary progressive phenotype in early versus late onset pediatric patients. Prognostic factors were also evaluated. RESULTS: A greater proportion of males, isolated brainstem involvement, and longer time interval between first and second clinical episode were observed in early versus late onset pediatric patients. Compared to late onset, early onset pediatric patients took longer from disease onset to convert to secondary progressive phenotype and to reach all disability milestones. Recovery from first demyelinating event, time to first relapse, annualized relapse rate during the first 3 years of disease, and disease-modifying treatment exposure were independent predictors for long-term disability in early onset pediatric patients. In late onset pediatric patients, isolated optic neuritis, multifocal symptoms, and progressive course at disease onset were additional predictors for long-term disability. INTERPRETATION: These findings point toward the existence of a different natural history in early versus late onset pediatric multiple sclerosis patients. ANN NEUROL 2022;91:483-495.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years. METHODS: Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement. RESULTS: 23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability. CONCLUSIONS: The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS. METHODS: We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS. RESULTS: Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. OBJECTIVE: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. METHODS: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. RESULTS: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Progression is independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis: a real-life cohort study.

Disability accrual in multiple sclerosis may occur as relapse-associated worsening or progression independent of relapse activity. The role of progression independent of relapse activity in early multiple sclerosis is yet to be established. The objective of this multicentre, observational, retrospective cohort study was to investigate the contribution of relapse-associated worsening and progression independent of relapse activity to confirmed disability accumulation in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, assessed within one year from onset and with follow-up ≥5 years (n = 5169). Data were extracted from the Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register. Confirmed disability accumulation was defined by an increase in Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed at 6 months, and classified per temporal association with relapses. Factors associated with progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening were assessed using multivariable Cox regression models. Over a follow-up period of 11.5 ± 5.5 years, progression independent of relapse activity occurred in 1427 (27.6%) and relapse-associated worsening in 922 (17.8%) patients. Progression independent of relapse activity was associated with older age at baseline [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.19; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.25, P < 0.001], having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.44; 95% CI 1.28-1.61, P < 0.001), longer disease duration at baseline (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.28-1.90, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.88-0.96, P < 0.001) and lower number of relapses before the event (HR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.73-0.80, P < 0.001). Relapse-associated worsening was associated with younger age at baseline (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.81-0.93, P < 0.001), having a relapsing-remitting course at baseline (HR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.35-1.79, P < 0.001), lower Expanded Disability Status Scale at baseline (HR = 0.94; 95% CI 0.89-0.99, P = 0.017) and a higher number of relapses before the event (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07, P < 0.001). Longer exposure to disease-modifying drugs was associated with a lower risk of both progression independent of relapse activity and relapse-associated worsening (P < 0.001). This study provides evidence that in an early relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis cohort, progression independent of relapse activity was an important contributor to confirmed disability accumulation. Our findings indicate that insidious progression appears even in the earliest phases of the disease, suggesting that inflammation and neurodegeneration can represent a single disease continuum, in which age is one of the main determinants of disease phenomenology.

Herpes zoster preceding neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder: casual or causal relationship? A systematic literature review.

Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) is a severe, inflammatory, immune-mediated astrocytopathy of the central nervous system, characterized by recurrent inflammatory events primarily involving optic nerves and the spinal cord. Recently, a triggering role of infectious events in the development of NMOSD has been suggested. Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is the agent most involved, although the linkage with anti-aquaporin-4 antibodies is so far unknown. A review of the literature on the association between NMOSD and VZV infection was carried out by searching PUBMED and EMBASE from 1975 to July 2020. A total of 13 articles concerning Herpes zoster preceding NMOSD were identified. All patients were female and the median age at NMOSD presentation was 28.5 (range 5-63) years. Four NMOSD cases occurred after chicken pox while the remaining ten after HZ. Full recovery occurred in 5/14 patients. From the review of the literature, we can infer that VZV seems to trigger LETM attacks and not the disease itself. The strict temporal relationship between VZV infection and NMOSD seems to exceed the pure chance and represents an unusual clinical scenario posing several diagnostic and management challenges.

Exposure to natalizumab throughout pregnancy: effectiveness and safety in an Italian cohort of women with multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing the risk of clinical and radiological reactivation during pregnancy and post partum in women with multiple sclerosis (MS) treated with natalizumab (NTZ) throughout pregnancy (LONG_EXP) compared with women interrupting treatment before (NO_EXP) and within >-30 days and ≤90 days from conception (SHORT_EXP), and describing newborns' outcomes. METHODS: Maternal clinical and radiological outcomes and obstetric and fetal outcomes were retrospectively collected and compared among groups (NO_EXP, SHORT_EXP, LONG_EXP). Predictors of clinical and radiological reactivation were investigated through univariable and multivariable analysis. RESULTS: 170 eligible pregnancies from 163 women referring to 29 Italian MS centres were included. Annualised relapse rate (ARR) was significantly lower in LONG_EXP (n=66, 0.02 (0.001-0.09)) compared with NO_EXP (n=31, 0.43 (0.21-0.75), p=0.002) and SHORT_EXP (n=73, 0.46 (0.30-0.66), p=0.0004) during pregnancy, and in LONG_EXP (0.12 (0.05-0.24)) compared with SHORT_EXP (0.30 (0.17-0.50), p=0.008) during post partum. Gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions were less frequent in LONG_EXP (n=6/50, 2.00%) compared with NO_EXP (n=9/21, 42.86%) and SHORT_EXP after delivery (n=17/49, 34.69%, p=0.010).Delaying NTZ resumption after delivery significantly increased the risk of relapses (OR=1.29 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.57), p=0.009) and Gd+ lesions (OR=1.49 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.89, p=0.001). Newborns' weight, length, head circumference and gestational age did not differ among groups after adjusting for confounders. Anaemia was tracked in 4/69 LONG_EXP newborns. Congenital anomaly rate was within the expected range for the untreated MS population. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that in women with MS treated with NTZ before conception, continuation of NTZ throughout pregnancy and its early resumption after delivery mitigate the risk of clinical and radiological reactivation. This approach has no major impact on newborns' outcomes.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS.

BACKGROUND: The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability. OBJECTIVE: To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS. METHODS: The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C. RESULTS: A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model. CONCLUSION: Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Towards a validated definition of the clinical transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A study from the Italian MS Register.

BACKGROUND: Definitions for reliable identification of transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) to secondary progressive (SP)MS in clinical cohorts are not available. OBJECTIVES: To compare diagnostic performances of two different data-driven SPMS definitions. METHODS: Data-driven SPMS definitions based on a version of Lorscheider's algorithm (DDA) and on the EXPAND trial inclusion criteria were compared, using the neurologist's definition (ND) as gold standard, in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: A cohort of 10,240 MS patients with ⩾5 years of follow-up was extracted from the Italian MS Registry; 880 (8.5%) patients were classified as SPMS according to the neurologist definition, 1806 (17.6%) applying the DDA and 1134 (11.0%) with the EXPAND definition. The DDA showed greater discrimination power (AUC: 0.8 vs 0.6) and a higher sensitivity (77.1% vs 38.0%) than the EXPAND definition, with similar specificity (88.0% vs 91.5%). PPV and NPV were higher using the DDA than considering EXPAND definition (37.5% vs 29.5%; 97.6% vs 94.0%). CONCLUSION: Data-driven definitions demonstrated greater ability to capture SP transition than neurologist's definition and the global accuracy of DDA seems to be higher than the EXPAND definition.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. METHODS: In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. RESULTS: The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual.

Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation following alemtuzumab therapy in aggressive multiple sclerosis: A report of three cases.

The management of multiple sclerosis patients with persistent disease activity under alemtuzumab treatment is not established yet. Concerns have been raised on the safety of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (aHSCT) after alemtuzumab treatment because of the risk of serious infectious adverse events. We report short-term safety and efficacy data from three patients treated with aHSCT following alemtuzumab treatment. Early adverse events were consistent with expected transplant toxicities. All patients were free of disease activity at the last follow-up. Our data suggest that aHSCT can be considered as a rescue treatment strategy for MS patients with persistent disease activity during alemtuzumab treatment.

Prediction of on-treatment disability worsening in RRMS with the MAGNIMS score.

BACKGROUND: The magnetic resonance imaging in multiple sclerosis (MAGNIMS) score combines relapses and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions to predict disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with interferon-ß. OBJECTIVE: To validate the MAGNIMS score and extend to other disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). To examine the prognostic value of gadolinium contrast-enhancing (Gd+) lesions. METHODS: This RRMS MSBase cohort study (n = 2293) used a Cox model to examine the prognostic value of relapses, MRI activity and the MAGNIMS score for disability worsening during treatment with interferon-ß and three other DMTs. RESULTS: Three new T2 lesions (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.60, p = 0.028) or two relapses (HR = 2.24, p = 0.002) on interferon-ß (for 12 months) were predictive of disability worsening over 4 years. MAGNIMS score = 2 (1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses) was associated with a greater risk of disability worsening on interferon-ß (HR = 2.0, p = 0.001). In pooled cohort of four DMTs, similar associations were seen (MAGNIMS score = 2: HR = 1.72, p = 0.001). Secondary analyses demonstrated that the addition of Gd+ to the MAGNIMS did not materially improve its prediction of disability worsening. CONCLUSION: We have validated the MAGNIMS score in RRMS and extended its application to three other DMTs: 1 relapse and ⩾3 T2 lesions or ⩾2 relapses predicted worsening of disability. Contrast-enhancing lesions did not substantially improve the prognostic score.

Determinants of therapeutic lag in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: A delayed onset of treatment effect, termed therapeutic lag, may influence the assessment of treatment response in some patient subgroups. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to explore the associations of patient and disease characteristics with therapeutic lag on relapses and disability accumulation. METHODS: Data from MSBase, a multinational multiple sclerosis (MS) registry, and OFSEP, the French MS registry, were used. Patients diagnosed with MS, minimum 1 year of exposure to MS treatment and 3 years of pre-treatment follow-up, were included in the analysis. Studied outcomes were incidence of relapses and disability accumulation. Therapeutic lag was calculated using an objective, validated method in subgroups stratified by patient and disease characteristics. Therapeutic lag under specific circumstances was then estimated in subgroups defined by combinations of clinical and demographic determinants. RESULTS: High baseline disability scores, annualised relapse rate (ARR) ⩾ 1 and male sex were associated with longer therapeutic lag on disability progression in sufficiently populated groups: females with expanded disability status scale (EDSS) < 6 and ARR < 1 had mean lag of 26.6 weeks (95% CI = 18.2-34.9), males with EDSS < 6 and ARR < 1 31.0 weeks (95% CI = 25.3-36.8), females with EDSS < 6 and ARR ⩾ 1 44.8 weeks (95% CI = 24.5-65.1), and females with EDSS ⩾ 6 and ARR < 1 54.3 weeks (95% CI = 47.2-61.5). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-treatment EDSS and ARR are the most important determinants of therapeutic lag.

Disability outcomes of early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebellar and brainstem symptoms are common in early stages of multiple sclerosis (MS) yet their prognostic values remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate long-term disability outcomes in patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms. METHODS: This study used data from MSBase registry. Patients with early cerebellar/brainstem presentations were identified as those with cerebellar/brainstem relapse(s) or functional system score ⩾ 2 in the initial 2 years. Early pyramidal presentation was chosen as a comparator. Andersen-Gill models were used to compare cumulative hazards of (1) disability progression events and (2) relapses between patients with and without early cerebellar/brainstem symptoms. Mixed effect models were used to estimate the associations between early cerebellar/brainstem presentations and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores. RESULTS: The study cohort consisted of 10,513 eligible patients, including 2723 and 3915 patients with early cerebellar and brainstem symptoms, respectively. Early cerebellar presentation was associated with greater hazard of progression events (HR = 1.37, p < 0.001) and EDSS (ß = 0.16, p < 0.001). Patients with early brainstem symptoms had lower hazard of progression events (HR = 0.89, p = 0.01) and EDSS (ß = -0.06, p < 0.001). Neither presentation was associated with changes in relapse risk. CONCLUSION: Early cerebellar presentation is associated with unfavourable outcomes, while early brainstem presentation is associated with favourable prognosis. These presentations may be used as MS prognostic markers and guide therapeutic approach.

Antibiotic Use and Risk of Multiple Sclerosis: A Nested Case-Control Study in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy.

INTRODUCTION: Known risk factors for multiple sclerosis (MS) include smoking, a low vitamin D status, obesity, and EBV, while the inflammatory feature of the disease strongly suggests the presence of additional infectious agents. The association between use of antibiotics and MS risk that could shed light on these factors is still undetermined. We aimed to evaluate the association between antibiotics and MS risk, in the Emilia-Romagna region (RER), Italy. METHODS: All adult patients with MS seen at any RER MS center (2015-2017) were eligible. For each of the 877 patients included, clinical information was collected and matched to 5 controls (RER residents) (n = 4,205) based on age, sex, place of residence, and index year. Information on antibiotic prescription was obtained through the linkage with the RER drug prescription database. RESULTS: Exposure to any antibiotic 3 years prior to the index year was associated with an increased MS risk (OR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.29-1.79). Similar results were found for different classes. No dose-response effect was found. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest an association between the use of antibiotics and MS risk in RER population. However, further epidemiological studies should be done with information on early life and lifestyle factors.

Secondary cluster headache due to a contralateral demyelinating periaqueductal gray matter lesion.

OBJECTIVES/BACKGROUND: Tension-type headache and migraine without aura are the most common primary headaches occurring in people with demyelinating diseases, whereas cluster headache (CH) can be considered exceptional. The location of demyelinating lesions could be strategic in these cases, involving areas interacting with the trigeminovascular system. METHODS AND RESULTS: We report a case of a 54-year-old woman with right-sided CH as the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis and showing a left dorsal brainstem lesion on magnetic resonance imaging, in the region of the dorsal longitudinal fasciculus (DLF). CONCLUSION: Our case seems to suggest a possible role of the DLF in the process that leads to CH attacks. Because neuroimaging clearly showed a lesion contralateral to CH pain, we hypothesize that some fibers from periaqueductal gray matter project to the contralateral side, besides the known ipsilateral connections.

Disease-modifying drugs can reduce disability progression in relapsing multiple sclerosis.

An ever-expanding number of disease-modifying drugs for multiple sclerosis have become available in recent years, after demonstrating efficacy in clinical trials. In the real-world setting, however, disease-modifying drugs are prescribed in patient populations that differ from those included in pivotal studies, where extreme age patients are usually excluded or under-represented. In this multicentre, observational, retrospective Italian cohort study, we evaluated treatment exposure in three cohorts of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis defined by age at onset: paediatric-onset (≤18 years), adult-onset (18-49 years) and late-onset multiple sclerosis (≥50 years). We included patients with a relapsing-remitting phenotype, ≥5 years follow-up, ≥3 Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) evaluations and a first neurological evaluation within 3 years from the first demyelinating event. Multivariate Cox regression models (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) were used to assess the risk of reaching a first 12-month confirmed disability worsening and the risk of reaching a sustained EDSS of 4.0. The effect of disease-modifying drugs was assessed as quartiles of time exposure. We found that disease-modifying drugs reduced the risk of 12-month confirmed disability worsening, with a progressive risk reduction in different quartiles of exposure in paediatric-onset and adult-onset patients [adjusted hazard ratios in non-exposed versus exposed >62% of the follow-up time: 8.0 (3.5-17.9) for paediatric-onset and 6.3 (4.9-8.0) for adult-onset, P < 0.0001] showing a trend in late-onset patients [adjusted hazard ratio = 1.9 (0.9-4.1), P = 0.07]. These results were confirmed for a sustained EDSS score of 4.0. We also found that relapses were a risk factor for 12-month confirmed disability worsening in all three cohorts, and female sex exerted a protective role in the late-onset cohort. This study provides evidence that sustained exposure to disease-modifying drugs decreases the risk of disability accumulation, seemingly in a dose-dependent manner. It confirms that the effectiveness of disease-modifying drugs is lower in late-onset patients, although still detectable.

Delay from treatment start to full effect of immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis.

In multiple sclerosis, treatment start or switch is prompted by evidence of disease activity. Whilst immunomodulatory therapies reduce disease activity, the time required to attain maximal effect is unclear. In this study we aimed to develop a method that allows identification of the time to manifest fully and clinically the effect of multiple sclerosis treatments ('therapeutic lag') on clinical disease activity represented by relapses and progression-of-disability events. Data from two multiple sclerosis registries, MSBase (multinational) and OFSEP (French), were used. Patients diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, minimum 1-year exposure to treatment, minimum 3-year pretreatment follow-up and yearly review were included in the analysis. For analysis of disability progression, all events in the subsequent 5-year period were included. Density curves, representing incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed progression events, were separately constructed for each sufficiently represented therapy. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to identify the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start; this point represented the point of stabilization of treatment effect, after the maximum treatment effect was observed. The method was developed in a discovery cohort (MSBase), and externally validated in a separate, non-overlapping cohort (OFSEP). A merged MSBase-OFSEP cohort was used for all subsequent analyses. Annualized relapse rates were compared in the time before treatment start and after the stabilization of treatment effect following commencement of each therapy. We identified 11 180 eligible treatment epochs for analysis of relapses and 4088 treatment epochs for disability progression. External validation was performed in four therapies, with no significant difference in the bootstrapped mean differences in therapeutic lag duration between registries. The duration of therapeutic lag for relapses was calculated for 10 therapies and ranged between 12 and 30 weeks. The duration of therapeutic lag for disability progression was calculated for seven therapies and ranged between 30 and 70 weeks. Significant differences in the pre- versus post-treatment annualized relapse rate were present for all therapies apart from intramuscular interferon beta-1a. In conclusion we have developed, and externally validated, a method to objectively quantify the duration of therapeutic lag on relapses and disability progression in different therapies in patients more than 3 years from multiple sclerosis onset. Objectively defined periods of expected therapeutic lag allows insights into the evaluation of treatment response in randomized clinical trials and may guide clinical decision-making in patients who experience early on-treatment disease activity. This method will subsequently be applied in studies that evaluate the effect of patient and disease characteristics on therapeutic lag.

Early clinical markers of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Patients with the 'aggressive' form of multiple sclerosis accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive multiple sclerosis, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive multiple sclerosis is essential to optimize treatment in this multiple sclerosis subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive multiple sclerosis can be identified based on early clinical markers. We then replicated this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from the MSBase observational study. Inclusion criteria were (i) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset; (ii) at least two recorded EDSS scores; and (iii) at least 10 years of observation time, based on time of last recorded EDSS score. Patients were classified as having 'aggressive multiple sclerosis' if all of the following criteria were met: (i) EDSS ≥ 6 reached within 10 years of symptom onset; (ii) EDSS ≥ 6 confirmed and sustained over ≥6 months; and (iii) EDSS ≥ 6 sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalization). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Of the 2403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive multiple sclerosis (6%). Bayesian model averaging identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS ≥ 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive multiple sclerosis [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.75, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.98]. The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive multiple sclerosis. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = 0.75, 95% CIs: 0.66, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.97). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Clinical effectiveness of different natalizumab interval dosing schedules in a large Italian population of patients with multiple sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Natalizumab (NTZ) is one of the most effective treatment options for multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment. Our study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of NTZ when administered according to the extended dosing strategy compared with standard 4-weekly administration in a large Italian MS population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective multicentre study included patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) who received NTZ administrations between the 1 June 2012 and the 15 May 2018 and were followed by the 'Italian MS Register'. All patients with MS were stratified into two groups based on NTZ administration schedule: standard interval dosing (SID) patients who received infusions on average from 28 to 32 days (median 30) and extended interval dosing (EID) including patients who have been infused with interval between 33 and 49 days (median 43). Clinical data were assessed at baseline (before starting NTZ), after 12 (T1) and 24 months (T2) of treatment. RESULTS: Out of 5231 patients with RR-MS screened, 2092 (mean age 43.2±12.0, 60.6% women) were enrolled. A total of 1254 (59.9%) received NTZ according to SID, and 838 (40.1%) according to EID. At 12 and 24 months, no differences in terms of annualised relapse rate and disability status were found between the two groups. Progression index and confirmed disability worsening were similar between the two groups. DISCUSSION: The use of NTZ with an extended interval schedule showed similar effectiveness compared with SID. Unchanged clinical efficacy of EID schedule may raise the question of a possible advantage in terms of tolerability and safety.