Estimating the optimal individualized treatment rule from a cost-effectiveness perspective.

Optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) provide customized treatment recommendations based on subject characteristics to maximize clinical benefit in accordance with the objectives in precision medicine. As a result, there is growing interest in developing statistical tools for estimating optimal ITRs in evidence-based research. In health economic perspectives, policy makers consider the tradeoff between health gains and incremental costs of interventions to set priorities and allocate resources. However, most work on ITRs has focused on maximizing the effectiveness of treatment without considering costs. In this paper, we jointly consider the impact of effectiveness and cost on treatment decisions and define ITRs under a composite-outcome setting, so that we identify the most cost-effective ITR that accounts for individual-level heterogeneity through direct optimization. In particular, we propose a decision-tree-based statistical learning algorithm that uses a net-monetary-benefit-based reward to provide nonparametric estimations of the optimal ITR. We provide several approaches to estimating the reward underlying the ITR as a function of subject characteristics. We present the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and provide practical guidelines by comparing their performance in simulation studies. We illustrate the top-performing approach from our simulations by evaluating the projected 15-year personalized cost-effectiveness of the intensive blood pressure control of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) study.

A Sequential Multiple-Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) for Stepped Care Management of Low Back Pain in the Military Health System: A Trial Protocol.

BACKGROUND: The Defense Health Agency has prioritized system-level pain management initiatives within the Military Health System (MHS), with low back pain as one of the key focus areas. A stepped care model focused on nonpharmacologic treatment to promote self-management is recommended. Implementation of stepped care is complicated by lack of information on the most effective nonpharmacologic strategies and how to sequence and tailor the various available options. The Sequential Multiple-Assignment Randomization Trial for Low Back Pain (SMART LBP) is a multisite pragmatic trial using a SMART design to assess the effectiveness of nonpharmacologic treatments for chronic low back pain. DESIGN: This SMART trial has two treatment phases. Participants from three military treatment facilities are randomized to 6 weeks of phase I treatment, receiving either physical therapy (PT) or Army Medicine's holistic Move2Health (M2H) program in a package specific to low back pain. Nonresponders to treatment in phase I are again randomized to phase II treatment of combined M2H + PT or mindfulness-based treatment using the Mindfulness-Oriented Recovery Enhancement (MORE) program. The primary outcome is the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System pain interference computer-adapted test score. SUMMARY: This trial is part of an initiative funded by the National Institutes of Health, Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Defense to establish a national infrastructure for effective system-level management of chronic pain with a focus on nonpharmacologic treatments. The results of this study will provide important information on nonpharmacologic care for chronic LBP in the MHS embedded within a stepped care framework.

Factors That Contribute to Cost Differences Based on ICU of Admission in Neonates Undergoing Congenital Heart Surgery: A Novel Decomposition Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We leveraged decomposition analysis, commonly used in labor economics, to understand determinants of cost differences related to location of admission in children undergoing neonatal congenital heart surgery. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Pediatric Health Information Systems database. PATIENTS: Neonates (<30 d old) undergoing their index congenital heart surgery between 2004 and 2013. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A decomposition analysis with bootstrapping determined characteristic (explainable by differing covariate levels) and structural effects (if covariates are held constant) related to cost differences. Covariates included center volume, age at admission, prematurity, sex, race, genetic or major noncardiac abnormality, Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery-1 score, payor, admission year, cardiac arrest, infection, and delayed sternal closure.Of 19,984 infants included (10,491 [52%] to cardiac ICU/PICU and 9,493 [48%] to neonatal ICU), admission to the neonatal ICU had overall higher average costs ($24,959 ± $3,260; p < 0.001) versus cardiac ICU/PICU admission. Characteristic effects accounted for higher costs in the neonatal ICU ($28,958 ± $2,044; p < 0.001). Differing levels of prematurity, genetic syndromes, hospital volume, age at admission, and infection contributed to higher neonatal ICU costs, with infection rate providing the most significant contribution ($13,581; p < 0.001). Aggregate structural effects were not associated with cost differences for those admitted to the neonatal ICU versus cardiac ICU/PICU (p = 0.1). Individually, prematurity and age at admission were associated with higher costs due to structural effects for infants admitted to the neonatal ICU versus cardiac ICU/PICU. CONCLUSIONS: The difference in cost between neonatal ICU and cardiac ICU/PICU admissions is largely driven by differing prevalence of risk factors between these units. Infection rate was a modifiable factor that accounted for the largest difference in costs between admitting units.

Cardiac Stress Testing during Workup for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair Is Not Associated with Improved Patient Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac stress testing (CST) is commonly used to help determine whether patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) are better candidates for open versus endovascular repair, although it is unknown whether the use of CST achieves its goal of optimizing patient selection and postoperative outcomes. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 3,635 patients in the Vascular Quality Initiative database (2010-2012) with an AAA ≥ 5.0 cm who were candidates for either open or endovascular AAA repair. The Vascular Study Group Cardiac Risk Index (VSG-CRI) was used to stratify patient risk. We applied generalized estimating equations with inverse probability weighting (IPW) to adjust for patient factors and hospital-level CST utilization to evaluate the effect of CST on composite of 30-day major adverse cardiac events or mortality (MACE-M) following AAA repair. RESULTS: CST was utilized in 1,627 (45%) patients during AAA workup, including 451 of 794 (57%) patients selected for open repair and 1,176 of 2,841 (41%) selected for endovascular repair. After IPW, the use of CST was not associated with the probability of patients receiving open versus endovascular repair (OR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.77-1.32). As compared to patients without CST during AAA workup, adjusted analyses revealed that CST utilization was not associated with improved MACE or mortality outcomes following AAA repair. Among patients receiving CST, an abnormal CST was not significantly associated with selection of open versus endovascular repair or with postoperative outcomes after adjustment for the VSG-CRI score. Similar results were found for patients with either low or high VSG-CRI scores. CONCLUSIONS: Utilization of CST during workup for AAA is not associated with procedure selection and improved outcomes. Identifying risk factors for individuals who would benefit from preoperative CST before AAA repair will help reduce health care utilization and improve postoperative outcomes.

Candidate Surrogate End Points for ESRD after AKI.

AKI, a frequently transient condition, is not accepted by the US Food and Drug Association as an end point for drug registration trials. We assessed whether an intermediate-term change in eGFR after AKI has a sufficiently strong relationship with subsequent ESRD to serve as an alternative end point in trials of AKI prevention and/or treatment. Among 161,185 United States veterans undergoing major surgery between 2004 and 2011, we characterized in-hospital AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and decline in eGFR from prehospitalization to postdischarge time points and quantified associations of these values with ESRD and mortality over a median of 3.8 years. An eGFR decline of ≥30% at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge occurred in 3.1%, 2.5%, and 2.6%, of survivors without AKI and 15.9%, 12.2%, and 11.7%, of survivors with AKI. For patients with in-hospital AKI compared with those with no AKI and stable eGFR, a 30% decline in eGFR at 30, 60, and 90 days after discharge demonstrated adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of ESRD of 5.60 (4.06 to 7.71), 6.42 (4.76 to 8.65), and 7.27 (5.14 to 10.27), with corresponding estimates for 40% decline in eGFR of 6.98 (5.21 to 9.35), 8.03 (6.11 to 10.56), and 10.95 (8.10 to 14.82). Risks for mortality were smaller but consistent in direction. A 30%-40% decline in eGFR after AKI could be a surrogate end point for ESRD in trials of AKI prevention and/or treatment, but additional trial evidence is needed.

APOL1 risk variants, race, and progression of chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Among patients in the United States with chronic kidney disease, black patients are at increased risk for end-stage renal disease, as compared with white patients. METHODS: In two studies, we examined the effects of variants in the gene encoding apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) on the progression of chronic kidney disease. In the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK), we evaluated 693 black patients with chronic kidney disease attributed to hypertension. In the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study, we evaluated 2955 white patients and black patients with chronic kidney disease (46% of whom had diabetes) according to whether they had 2 copies of high-risk APOL1 variants (APOL1 high-risk group) or 0 or 1 copy (APOL1 low-risk group). In the AASK study, the primary outcome was a composite of end-stage renal disease or a doubling of the serum creatinine level. In the CRIC study, the primary outcomes were the slope in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the composite of end-stage renal disease or a reduction of 50% in the eGFR from baseline. RESULTS: In the AASK study, the primary outcome occurred in 58.1% of the patients in the APOL1 high-risk group and in 36.6% of those in the APOL1 low-risk group (hazard ratio in the high-risk group, 1.88; P<0.001). There was no interaction between APOL1 status and trial interventions or the presence of baseline proteinuria. In the CRIC study, black patients in the APOL1 high-risk group had a more rapid decline in the eGFR and a higher risk of the composite renal outcome than did white patients, among those with diabetes and those without diabetes (P<0.001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Renal risk variants in APOL1 were associated with the higher rates of end-stage renal disease and progression of chronic kidney disease that were observed in black patients as compared with white patients, regardless of diabetes status. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others.).

Implementation of a Value-Driven Outcomes Program to Identify High Variability in Clinical Costs and Outcomes and Association With Reduced Cost and Improved Quality.

IMPORTANCE: Transformation of US health care from volume to value requires meaningful quantification of costs and outcomes at the level of individual patients. OBJECTIVE: To measure the association of a value-driven outcomes tool that allocates costs of care and quality measures to individual patient encounters with cost reduction and health outcome optimization. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Uncontrolled, pre-post, longitudinal, observational study measuring quality and outcomes relative to cost from 2012 to 2016 at University of Utah Health Care. Clinical improvement projects included total hip and knee joint replacement, hospitalist laboratory utilization, and management of sepsis. EXPOSURES: Physicians were given access to a tool with information about outcomes, costs (not charges), and variation and partnered with process improvement experts. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Total and component inpatient and outpatient direct costs across departments; cost variability for Medicare severity diagnosis related groups measured as coefficient of variation (CV); and care costs and composite quality indexes. RESULTS: From July 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015, there were 1.7 million total patient visits, including 34 000 inpatient discharges. Professional costs accounted for 24.3% of total costs for inpatient episodes ($114.4 million of $470.4 million) and 41.9% of total costs for outpatient visits ($231.7 million of $553.1 million). For Medicare severity diagnosis related groups with the highest total direct costs, cost variability was highest for postoperative infection (CV = 1.71) and sepsis (CV = 1.37) and among the lowest for organ transplantation (CV ≤ 0.43). For total joint replacement, a composite quality index was 54% at baseline (n = 233 encounters) and 80% 1 year into the implementation (n = 188 encounters) (absolute change, 26%; 95% CI, 18%-35%; P < .001). Compared with the baseline year, mean direct costs were 7% lower in the implementation year (95% CI, 3%-11%; P < .001) and 11% lower in the postimplementation year (95% CI, 7%-14%; P < .001). The hospitalist laboratory testing mean cost per day was $138 (median [IQR], $113 [$79-160]; n = 2034 encounters) at baseline and $123 (median [IQR], $99 [$66-147]; n = 4276 encounters) in the evaluation period (mean difference, -$15; 95% CI, -$19 to -$11; P < .001), with no significant change in mean length of stay. For a pilot sepsis intervention, the mean time to anti-infective administration following fulfillment of systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria in patients with infection was 7.8 hours (median [IQR], 3.4 [0.8-7.8] hours; n = 29 encounters) at baseline and 3.6 hours (median [IQR], 2.2 [1.0-4.5] hours; n = 76 encounters) in the evaluation period (mean difference, -4.1 hours; 95% CI, -9.9 to -1.0 hours; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Implementation of a multifaceted value-driven outcomes tool to identify high variability in costs and outcomes in a large single health care system was associated with reduced costs and improved quality for 3 selected clinical projects. There may be benefit for individual physicians to understand actual care costs (not charges) and outcomes achieved for individual patients with defined clinical conditions.

Estimating time to ESRD using kidney failure risk equations: results from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK).

BACKGROUND: Planning for renal replacement therapy, such as referral for arteriovenous fistula placement and transplantation, often is guided by level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The use of risk equations might enable more accurate estimation of time to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), thus improving patient care. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 1,094 participants in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) cohort. PREDICTOR: Age, sex, urine protein-creatinine ratio ≥ 1g/g, APOL1 high-risk status, and 3-year antecedent eGFR decline. OUTCOME: Cumulative incidence of ESRD from 5 different starting points: eGFR of 30 and 15mL/min/1.73m(2) and 1-year ESRD risk of 5%, 10%, and 20%, estimated by a published 4-variable kidney failure risk equation. RESULTS: 566 participants developed eGFR of 30mL/min/1.73m(2), 244 developed eGFR of 15mL/min/1.73m(2), and 437, 336, and 259 developed 1-year ESRD risks of 5%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. The 1-year cumulative incidence of ESRD was 4.3% from eGFR of 30mL/min/1.73m(2), 49.0% from eGFR of 15mL/min/1.73m(2), 6.7% from 5% ESRD risk, 15.0% from 10% ESRD risk, and 29% from 20% ESRD risk. From eGFR of 30mL/min/1.73m(2), there were several risk factors that predicted ESRD risk. From eGFR of 15mL/min/1.73m(2), only level of proteinuria did; median time to ESRD was 9 and 19 months in those with higher and lower proteinuria, respectively. Median times were less variable from corresponding ESRD risk thresholds. For example, median times to ESRD from 20% ESRD risk were 22 and 25 months among those with higher and lower proteinuria, respectively. LIMITATIONS: Relatively homogeneous population of African Americans with hypertensive kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: Results of the present study suggest the potential benefit of incorporating kidney failure risk equations into clinical care, with selection of a specific threshold guided by its intended use.

The effects of weight change on glomerular filtration rate.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effect of weight loss/gain on kidney function. Analyses are complicated by uncertainty about optimal body surface indexing strategies for measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR). METHODS: Using data from the African-American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK), we determined the association of change in weight with three different estimates of change in kidney function: (i) unindexed mGFR estimated by renal clearance of iodine-125-iothalamate, (ii) mGFR indexed to concurrently measured BSA and (iii) GFR estimated from serum creatinine (eGFR). All models were adjusted for baseline weight, time, randomization group and time-varying diuretic use. We also examined whether these relationships were consistent across a number of subgroups, including tertiles of baseline 24-h urine sodium excretion. RESULTS: In 1094 participants followed over an average of 3.6 years, a 5-kg weight gain was associated with a 1.10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (95% CI: 0.87 to 1.33; P < 0.001) increase in unindexed mGFR. There was no association between weight change and mGFR indexed for concurrent BSA (per 5 kg weight gain, 0.21; 95% CI: -0.02 to 0.44; P = 0.1) or between weight change and eGFR (-0.09; 95% CI: -0.32 to 0.14; P = 0.4). The effect of weight change on unindexed mGFR was less pronounced in individuals with higher baseline sodium excretion (P = 0.08 for interaction). CONCLUSION: The association between weight change and kidney function varies depending on the method of assessment. Future clinical trials should examine the effect of intentional weight change on measured GFR or filtration markers robust to changes in muscle mass.

A within-patient analysis for time-varying risk factors of CKD progression.

Recent data suggest that nonlinear GFR trajectories are common among patients with CKD, but the modifiable risk factors underlying these changes in CKD progression rate are unknown. Analyses relating baseline risk factors to subsequent GFR decline are suboptimal because these relationships often attenuate as follow-up time increases and these analyses do not account for temporal changes in risk factors. We identified 74 participants in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension who had both a period of rapid GFR decline and an extended period of stability during a follow-up period of ≥12 years. We performed a within-patient comparison of time-varying risk factors measured during the periods of GFR decline and stability and identified several risk factors associated with faster GFR decline: more hospitalization episodes and hospitalization days per year; higher BP, serum phosphorus, and urine protein-to-creatinine ratio; lower serum albumin and urine sodium-to-potassium ratio; slower rate of decline of serum urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, serum uric acid, and serum phosphorus; and faster rate of decline of serum hematocrit and serum bicarbonate. By allowing each patient to serve as his or her own control, this novel, within-patient analytic approach holds considerable promise as a means to identify time-varying risk factors associated with stabilization of GFR or acceleration of GFR decline.

Effects of daily hemodialysis on heart rate variability: results from the Frequent Hemodialysis Network (FHN) Daily Trial.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with reduced heart rate variability (HRV), components of which generally are associated with advanced age, diabetes mellitus and left ventricular hypertrophy. We hypothesized that daily in-center hemodialysis (HD) would increase HRV. METHODS: The Frequent Hemodialysis Network (FHN) Daily Trial randomized 245 patients to receive 12 months of six versus three times per week in-center HD. Two hundred and seven patients had baseline Holter recordings. HRV measures were calculated from 24-h Holter electrocardiograms at both baseline and 12 months in 131 patients and included low-frequency power (LF, a measure of sympathetic modulation), high-frequency power (HF, a measure of parasympathetic modulation) and standard deviation (SD) of the R-R interval (SDNN, a measure of beat-to-beat variation). RESULTS: Baseline to Month 12 change in LF was augmented by 50% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 6.1-112%, P =0.022] and LF + HF was augmented by 40% (95% CI 3.3-88.4%, P = 0.03) in patients assigned to daily hemodialysis (DHD) compared with conventional HD. Changes in HF and SDNN were similar between the randomized groups. The effects of DHD on LF were attenuated by advanced age and diabetes mellitus (predefined subgroups). Changes in HF (r = -0.20, P = 0.02) and SDNN (r = -0.18, P = 0.04) were inversely associated with changes in left ventricular mass (LVM). CONCLUSIONS: DHD increased the LF component of HRV. Reduction of LVM by DHD was associated with increased vagal modulation of heart rate (HF) and with increased beat-to-beat heart rate variation (SDNN), suggesting an important functional correlate to the structural effects of DHD on the heart in uremia.

Impact of Local Tailoring on Acute Stroke Care in 21 Disparate Emergency Departments: A Prospective Stepped Wedge Type III Hybrid Effectiveness-Implementation Study.

BACKGROUND: Faster delivery of tPA (tissue-type plasminogen activator) results in better health outcomes for eligible patients with stroke. Standardization of stroke protocols in emergency departments (EDs) has been difficult, especially in nonstroke centers. We measured the effectiveness of a centrally led implementation strategy with local site tailoring to sustain adherence to an acute stroke protocol to improve door-to-needle (DTN) times across disparate EDs in a multihospital health system. METHODS: Prospective, type III hybrid effectiveness-implementation cohort study measuring performance at 21 EDs in Utah and Idaho (stroke centers [4]/nonstroke centers [17]) from January 2018 to February 2020 using a nonrandomized stepped-wedge design, monthly repeated site measures and multilevel hierarchical modeling. Each site received the implementation strategies in 1 of 6 steps providing control and intervention data. Co-primary outcomes were percentage of DTN times ≤60 minutes and median DTN time. Secondary outcomes included percentage of door-to-activation of neurological consult times ≤10 minutes and clinical effectiveness outcomes. Results were stratified between stroke and nonstroke centers. RESULTS: A total of 855 474 ED patient encounters occurred with 5325 code stroke activations (median age, 69 [IQR, 56-79] years; 51.8% female patients]. Percentage of door-to-activation times ≤10 minutes increased from 47.5% to 59.9% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.93 [95% CI, 1.40-2.67]). A total of 615 patients received tPA of ≤3 hours from symptom onset (median age, 71 [IQR, 58-80] years; 49.6% female patients). The percentage of DTN times ≤60 minutes increased from 72.5% to 86.1% (adjusted odds ratio, 3.38, [95% CI, 1.47-7.78]; stroke centers (77.4%-90.0%); nonstroke centers [59.3%-72.1%]). Median DTN time declined from 46 to 38 minutes (adjusted median difference, -9.68 [95% CI, -17.17 to -2.20]; stroke centers [41-35 minutes]; nonstroke centers [55-52 minutes]). No differences were observed in clinical effectiveness outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: A centrally led implementation strategy with local site tailoring led to faster delivery of tPA across disparate EDs in a multihospital system with no change in clinical effectiveness outcomes including rates of complication. Disparities in performance persisted between stroke and nonstroke centers.

Association Between Self-Reported Medication Adherence and Therapeutic Inertia in Hypertension: A Secondary Analysis of SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial).

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic inertia (TI), failure to intensify antihypertensive medication when blood pressure (BP) is above goal, remains prevalent in hypertension management. The degree to which self-reported antihypertensive adherence is associated with TI with intensive BP goals remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cross-sectional analysis was performed of the 12-month visit of participants in the intensive arm of SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), which randomized adults to intensive (<120 mm Hg) versus standard (<140 mm Hg) systolic BP goals. TI was defined as no increase in antihypertensive regimen intensity score, which incorporates medication number and dose, when systolic BP is ≥120 mm Hg. Self-reported adherence was assessed using the 8-Item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8) and categorized as low (MMAS-8 score <6), medium (MMAS-8 score 6 to <8), and high (MMAS-8 score 8). Poisson regressions estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs for TI associated with MMAS-8. Among 1009 intensive arm participants with systolic BP >120 mm Hg at the 12-month visit (mean age, 69.6 years; 35.2% female, 28.8% non-Hispanic Black), TI occurred in 50.8% of participants. Participants with low adherence (versus high) were younger and more likely to be non-Hispanic Black or smokers. The prevalence of TI among patients with low, medium, and high adherence was 45.0%, 53.5%, and 50.4%, respectively. After adjustment, neither low nor medium adherence (versus high) were associated with TI (PR, 1.11 [95% CI, 0.87-1.42]; PR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.84-1.38], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although clinician uncertainty about adherence is often cited as a reason for why antihypertensive intensification is withheld when above BP goals, we observed no evidence of an association between self-reported adherence and TI.

Phenotyping Depression After Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: Evaluating the Impact of Multiple Injury, Gender, and Injury Context.

The chronic mental health consequences of mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) are a leading cause of disability. This is surprising given the expectation of significant recovery after mild TBI, which suggests that other injury-related factors may contribute to long-term adverse outcomes. The objective of this study was to determine how number of prior injuries, gender, and environment/context of injury may contribute to depressive symptoms after mild TBI among deployed United States service members and veterans (SMVs). Data from the Long-term Impact of Military-Relevant Brain Injury Consortium Prospective Longitudinal Study was used to assess TBI injury characteristics and depression scores previously measured on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) among a sample of 1456 deployed SMVs. Clinical diagnosis of mild TBI was defined via a multi-step process centered on a structured face-to-face interview. Logistical and linear regressions stratified by gender and environment of injury were used to model depressive symptoms controlling for sociodemographic and combat deployment covariates. Relative to controls with no history of mild TBI (n = 280), the odds ratios (OR) for moderate/severe depression (PHQ-9 ≥ 10) were higher for SMVs with one mild TBI (n = 358) OR: 1.62 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-2.40, p = 0.016) and two or more mild TBIs (n = 818) OR: 1.84 (95% CI 1.31-2.59, p < 0.001). Risk differences across groups were assessed in stratified linear models, which found that depression symptoms were elevated in those with a history of multiple mild TBIs compared with those who had a single mild TBI (p < 0.001). Combat deployment-related injuries were also associated with higher depression scores than injuries occurring in non-combat or civilian settings (p < 0.001). Increased rates of depression after mild TBI persisted in the absence of post-traumatic stress disorder. Both men and women SMVs separately exhibited significantly increased depressive symptom scores if they had had combat-related mild TBI. These results suggest that contextual information, gender, and prior injury history may influence long-term mental health outcomes among SMVs with mild TBI exposure.

New Users of Angiotensin II Receptor Blocker-Versus Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor-Based Antihypertensive Medication Regimens and Cardiovascular Disease Events: A Secondary Analysis of ACCORD-BP and SPRINT.

BACKGROUND Angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) block distinct components of the renin-angiotensin system. Whether this translates into differential effects on cardiovascular disease events remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS We used the ACCORD-BP (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes-Blood Pressure) trial and the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) to emulate target trials of new users of ARBs versus ACEIs on cardiovascular disease events (primary outcome) and death (secondary outcome). We estimated marginal cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and treatment-specific cumulative incidence functions with inverse probability of treatment weights. We identified 3298 new users of ARBs or ACEIs (ACCORD-BP: 374 ARB versus 884 ACEI; SPRINT: 727 ARB versus 1313 ACEI). For participants initiating ARBs versus ACEIs, the inverse probability of treatment weight rate of the primary outcome was 3.2 versus 3.5 per 100 person-years in ACCORD-BP (HR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.63-1.31]) and 1.8 versus 2.2 per 100 person-years in SPRINT (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.56-1.18]). There were no appreciable differences in pooled analyses, except that ARBs versus ACEIs were associated with a lower death rate (HR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.37-0.85]). ARBs were associated with a lower rate of the primary outcome among subgroups of male versus female participants, non-Hispanic Black versus non-Hispanic White participants, and those randomly assigned to standard versus intensive blood pressure (Pinteraction: <0.01, 0.05, and <0.01, respectively). CONCLUSIONS In this secondary analysis of ACCORD-BP and SPRINT, new users of ARB- versus ACEI-based antihypertensive medication regimens experienced similar cardiovascular disease events rates, with important subgroup differences and lower rates of death overall. REGISTRATION URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT01206062, NCT00000620.

Identifying Patients for Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment Based on Cognitive Benefit: A Secondary Analysis of the SPRINT Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Intensive vs standard treatment to lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) reduces risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia; however, the magnitude of cognitive benefit likely varies among patients. Objective: To estimate the magnitude of cognitive benefit of intensive vs standard systolic BP (SBP) treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this ad hoc secondary analysis of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), 9361 randomized clinical trial participants 50 years or older with high cardiovascular risk but without a history of diabetes, stroke, or dementia were followed up. The SPRINT trial was conducted between November 1, 2010, and August 31, 2016, and the present analysis was completed on October 31, 2022. Intervention: Systolic blood pressure treatment to an intensive (<120 mm Hg) vs standard (<140 mm Hg) target. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of adjudicated probable dementia or amnestic MCI. Results: A total of 7918 SPRINT participants were included in the analysis; 3989 were in the intensive treatment group (mean [SD] age, 67.9 [9.2] years; 2570 [64.4%] men; 1212 [30.4%] non-Hispanic Black) and 3929 were in the standard treatment group (mean [SD] age, 67.9 [9.4] years; 2570 [65.4%] men; 1249 [31.8%] non-Hispanic Black). Over a median follow-up of 4.13 (IQR, 3.50-5.88) years, there were 765 and 828 primary outcome events in the intensive treatment group and standard treatment group, respectively. Older age (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD, 1.87 [95% CI, 1.78-1.96]), Medicare enrollment (HR per 1 SD, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.35-1.49]), and higher baseline serum creatinine level (HR per 1 SD, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.19-1.29]) were associated with higher risk of the primary outcome, while better baseline cognitive functioning (HR per 1 SD, 0.43 [95% CI, 0.41-0.44]) and active employment status (HR per 1 SD, 0.44 [95% CI, 0.42-0.46]) were associated with lower risk of the primary outcome. Risk of the primary outcome by treatment goal was estimated accurately based on similar projected and observed absolute risk differences (C statistic = 0.79). Higher baseline risk for the primary outcome was associated with greater benefit (ie, larger absolute reduction of probable dementia or amnestic MCI) of intensive vs standard treatment across the full range of estimated baseline risk. Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of the SPRINT trial, participants with higher baseline projected risk of probable dementia or amnestic MCI gained greater absolute cognitive benefit from intensive vs standard SBP treatment in a monotonic fashion. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01206062.

Longitudinal progression trajectory of GFR among patients with CKD.

BACKGROUND: The traditional paradigm of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) progression in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a steady nearly linear decline over time. We describe individual GFR progression trajectories over 12 years of follow-up in participants in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK). STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 846 AASK patients with at least 3 years of follow-up and 8 GFR estimates. MEASUREMENTS: Longitudinal GFR estimates from creatinine-based equations. PREDICTORS: Patient demographic and clinical features. OUTCOMES: Probability of a nonlinear trajectory and probability of a period of nonprogression calculated for each patient from a Bayesian model of individual estimated GFR (eGFR) trajectories. RESULTS: 352 (41.6%) patients showed a > 0.9 probability of having either a nonlinear trajectory or a prolonged nonprogression period; in 559 (66.1%), the probability was > 0.5. Baseline eGFR > 40 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine protein-creatinine ratio < 0.22 g/g were associated with a higher likelihood of a nonprogression period. 74 patients (8.7%) had both a substantial period of stable or increasing eGFR and a substantial period of rapid eGFR decrease. LIMITATIONS: Clinical trial population; absence of direct GFR measurements. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the traditional paradigm of steady GFR progression over time, many patients with CKD have a nonlinear GFR trajectory or a prolonged period of nonprogression. These findings highlight the possibility that stable kidney disease progression can accelerate and, conversely, provide hope that CKD need not be relentlessly progressive. These results should encourage researchers to identify time-dependent factors associated with periods of nonprogression and other desirable trajectories.

N-myristoyltransferase 2-based Blood Test for the Detection of Colorectal Adenomatous Polyps and Cancer.

Background: Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths. This study demonstrates the utility of a simple blood test with high sensitivity and specificity for colorectal adenomatous polyps and cancer. A simple blood test with high sensitivity and specificity for adenomas would help identify individuals for a follow-up colonoscopy during which any adenomatous polyps found could be removed, thus preventing colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods: We determined the H-score by using immunohistochemical analyses of N-myristoyltransferase 2 (NMT2) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) isolated from the blood. We determined the sensitivity and specificity of the NMT2-based blood test in identifying colorectal adenomatous polyps and cancer. Design: All experimental procedures were performed by research personnel blinded to the colonoscopy status of the participants. Setting: In this cohort study, participants were recruited from those coming for an outpatient colonoscopy at a referral center. Participants: PBMC were collected from 74 subjects at the Health Sciences Centre, Winnipeg, Canada. Samples were collected from colonoscopy patients prior to colonoscopy. All 74 subjects were included in CRC vs. non-CRC analysis, whereas only 70 subjects were analyzed for colorectal adenomatous polyps and cancer versus individuals with no evidence of disease and non-adenomatous polyps. NMT2 expression was tested in samples by immunohistochemistry. Results: The expression of NMT2 was significantly higher in PBMC of subjects with colorectal adenomatous polyps and cancer (n = 34) compared with individuals with non-adenomatous polyps or no evidence of disease (n = 36) (P < 0.0001). The test had an overall sensitivity of 91% (95% confidence intervals: 84.49-97.80) and specificity of 81% (95% confidence intervals: 71.28-89.83) in detecting colorectal adenomatous polyps and cancer (all stages). Conclusions: Our results suggest that the sensitivity of NMT2 in detecting adenomatous polyps is high (91%). A simple blood-based CRC screening test using NMT2 expression detects colorectal adenomatous polyps and cancer with high sensitivity and specificity has the potential of increasing the compliance for CRC screening as has been reported for other blood-based CRC screening tests.