Real-Time Use of a Dynamic Model To Measure the Impact of Public Health Interventions on Measles Outbreak Size and Duration - Chicago, Illinois, 2024.

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease that can cause severe illness, hospitalization, and death. A measles outbreak associated with a migrant shelter in Chicago occurred during February-April 2024, in which a total of 57 confirmed cases were identified, including 52 among shelter residents, three among staff members, and two among community members with a known link to the shelter. CDC simulated a measles outbreak among shelter residents using a dynamic disease model, updated in real time as additional cases were identified, to produce outbreak forecasts and assess the impact of public health interventions. As of April 8, the model forecasted a median final outbreak size of 58 cases (IQR = 56-60 cases); model fit and prediction range improved as more case data became available. Counterfactual analysis of different intervention scenarios demonstrated the importance of early deployment of public health interventions in Chicago, with a 69% chance of an outbreak of 100 or more cases had there been no mass vaccination or active case-finding compared with only a 1% chance when those interventions were deployed. This analysis highlights the value of using real-time, dynamic models to aid public health response, set expectations about outbreak size and duration, and quantify the impact of interventions. The model shows that prompt mass vaccination and active case-finding likely substantially reduced the chance of a large (100 or more cases) outbreak in Chicago.

Measles Outbreak Associated with a Migrant Shelter - Chicago, Illinois, February-May 2024.

Measles, a highly contagious respiratory virus with the potential to cause severe complications, hospitalization, and death, was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000; however, with ongoing global transmission, infections in the United States still occur. On March 7, 2024, the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) confirmed a case of measles in a male aged 1 year residing in a temporary shelter for migrants in Chicago. Given the congregate nature of the setting, high transmissibility of measles, and low measles vaccination coverage among shelter residents, measles virus had the potential to spread rapidly among approximately 2,100 presumed exposed shelter residents. CDPH immediately instituted outbreak investigation and response activities in collaboration with state and local health departments, health care facilities, city agencies, and shelters. On March 8, CDPH implemented active case-finding and coordinated a mass vaccination campaign at the affected shelter (shelter A), including vaccinating 882 residents and verifying previous vaccination for 784 residents over 3 days. These activities resulted in 93% measles vaccination coverage (defined as receipt of ≥1 recorded measles vaccine dose) by March 11. By May 13, a total of 57 confirmed measles cases associated with residing in or having contact with persons from shelter A had been reported. Most cases (41; 72%) were among persons who did not have documentation of measles vaccination and were considered unvaccinated. In addition, 16 cases of measles occurred among persons who had received ≥1 measles vaccine dose ≥21 days before first known exposure. This outbreak underscores the need to ensure high vaccination coverage among communities residing in congregate settings.

SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection Risk in Persons with HIV, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2020-2022.

Understanding if persons with HIV (PWH) have a higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 reinfection may help tailor future COVID-19 public health guidance. To determine whether HIV infection was associated with increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, we followed adult residents of Chicago, Illinois, USA, with SARS-CoV-2 longitudinally from their first reported infection through May 31, 2022. We matched SARS-CoV-2 laboratory data and COVID-19 vaccine administration data to Chicago's Enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System. Among 453,587 Chicago residents with SARS-CoV-2, a total of 5% experienced a SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, including 192/2,886 (7%) PWH and 23,642/450,701 (5%) persons without HIV. We observed higher SARS-CoV-2 reinfection incidence rates among PWH (66 [95% CI 57-77] cases/1,000 person-years) than PWOH (50 [95% CI 49-51] cases/1,000 person-years). PWH had a higher adjusted rate of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection (1.46, 95% CI 1.27-1.68) than those without HIV. PWH should follow the recommended COVID-19 vaccine schedule, including booster doses.

Postvaccination SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among Skilled Nursing Facility Residents and Staff Members - Chicago, Illinois, December 2020-March 2021.

Early studies suggest that COVID-19 vaccines protect against severe illness (1); however, postvaccination SARS-CoV-2 infections (i.e., breakthrough infections) can occur because COVID-19 vaccines do not offer 100% protection (2,3). Data evaluating the occurrence of breakthrough infections and impact of vaccination in decreasing transmission in congregate settings are limited. Skilled nursing facility (SNF) residents and staff members have been disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 (4,5), and were prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination (6,7). Starting December 28, 2020, all 78 Chicago-based SNFs began COVID-19 vaccination clinics over several weeks through the federal Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care Program (PPP).† In February 2021, through routine screening, the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) identified a SARS-CoV-2 infection in a SNF resident >14 days after receipt of the second dose of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccination series. SARS-CoV-2 cases, vaccination status, and possible vaccine breakthrough infections were identified by matching facility reports with state case and vaccination registries. Among 627 persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 75 SNFs since vaccination clinics began, 22 SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified among 12 residents and 10 staff members across 15 facilities ≥14 days after receiving their second vaccine dose (i.e., breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated persons). Nearly two thirds (14 of 22; 64%) of persons with breakthrough infections were asymptomatic; two residents were hospitalized because of COVID-19, and one died. No facility-associated secondary transmission occurred. Although few SARS-CoV-2 infections in fully vaccinated persons were observed, these cases demonstrate the need for SNFs to follow recommended routine infection prevention and control practices and promote high vaccination coverage among SNF residents and staff members.

COVID-19 Outbreak Among a University's Men's and Women's Soccer Teams - Chicago, Illinois, July-August 2020.

Data on transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), among college athletes are limited. In August 2020, the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) was notified of a cluster of COVID-19 cases among a university's men's and women's soccer teams. CDPH initiated an investigation, interviewed members of both teams, and collated laboratory data to understand transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the teams. Numerous social gatherings with limited mask use or social distancing preceded the outbreak. Transmission resulted in 17 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases across both teams (n = 45), likely from a single source introduction of SARS-CoV-2 (based on whole genome sequencing) and subsequent transmission during multiple gatherings. Colleges and universities are at risk for COVID-19 outbreaks because of shared housing and social gatherings where recommended prevention guidance is not followed. Improved strategies to promote mask use and social distancing among college-aged adults need to be implemented, as well as periodic repeat testing to identify asymptomatic infections and prevent outbreaks among groups at increased risk for infection because of frequent exposure to close contacts in congregate settings on and off campus.

Outbreaks Associated with Untreated Recreational Water - California, Maine, and Minnesota, 2018-2019.

Outbreaks associated with fresh or marine (i.e., untreated) recreational water can be caused by pathogens or chemicals, including toxins. Voluntary reporting of these outbreaks to CDC's National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) began in 2009. NORS data for 2009-2017 are finalized, and data for 2018-2019 are provisional. During 2009-2019 (as of May 13, 2020), public health officials from 31 states voluntarily reported 119 untreated recreational water-associated outbreaks, resulting at least 5,240 cases; 103 of the outbreaks (87%) started during June-August. Among the 119 outbreaks, 88 (74%) had confirmed etiologies. The leading etiologies were enteric pathogens: norovirus (19 [22%] outbreaks; 1,858 cases); Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) (19 [22%]; 240), Cryptosporidium (17 [19%]; 237), and Shigella (14 [16%]; 713). This report highlights three examples of outbreaks that occurred during 2018-2019, were caused by leading etiologies (Shigella, norovirus, or STEC), and demonstrate the wide geographic distribution of such outbreaks across the United States. Detection and investigation of untreated recreational water-associated outbreaks are challenging, and the sources of these outbreaks often are not identified. Tools for controlling and preventing transmission of enteric pathogens through untreated recreational water include epidemiologic investigations, regular monitoring of water quality (i.e., testing for fecal indicator bacteria), microbial source tracking, and health policy and communications (e.g., observing beach closure signs and not swimming while ill with diarrhea).

Quantification of exposure to fecal contamination in open drains in four neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana.

In low-income countries, rapid urbanization adds pressure to already stressed water and sanitation systems that are critical to the health of communities. Drainage networks, designed for stormwater but commonly used for disposing of waste, are rarely covered completely, allowing residents to easily come into contact with their contents. This study used spatial mapping, documentation of physical drain characteristics, microbiological analysis of drain samples, and behavioral observation to comprehensively examine drains as a route of exposure to fecal contamination in four low-income neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana. A stochastic model of six likely exposure scenarios was constructed to estimate children's exposure to drain water. Regardless of the age of the child, any exposure scenario considered resulted in exposure to a high level of fecal contamination. Fecal contamination levels in drains were high (Escherichia coli: geometric mean (GM), 8.60 cfu log(10)/100 mL; coliphage: GM, 5.56 pfu log(10)/100 mL), and did not differ by neighborhood or physical drain characteristics, indicating that frequency of contact with drains, and not drain type or location, drives exposure risk. To mitigate health risks associated with this exposure, drains should be covered, with priority given to large concrete and small to medium dirt-lined drains that children were most commonly observed entering.

Correlation of wastewater surveillance data with traditional influenza surveillance measures in Cook County, Illinois, October 2022-April 2023.

Influenza is a respiratory illness that can result in serious outcomes, particularly among persons who are immunocompromised, aged <5 years or aged >65 years. Traditional influenza surveillance approaches rely upon syndromic surveillance of emergency departments and public health reporting from clinicians and laboratories. Wastewater surveillance infrastructure developed to monitor SARS-CoV-2 is being used for influenza surveillance in the Chicago area. The goal was to evaluate timeliness and correlations between influenza virus detected through wastewater surveillance and traditional influenza surveillance measures to assess utility of wastewater surveillance for influenza at the county level. Specifically, we measured correlations between influenza virus gene copies in wastewater samples and 1) the number of intensive care unit admissions associated with a diagnosis of influenza, 2) the percentage emergency department (ED) visits for influenza-like-illness, and 3) the percentage of ED visits with influenza diagnosis at discharge2 in Cook County. Influenza concentrations in wastewater were strongly correlated with traditional influenza surveillance measures, particularly for catchment areas serving >100,000 residents. Wastewater indicators lagged traditional influenza surveillance measures by approximately one week when analyzed in cross-correlations. Although wastewater data lagged traditional influenza surveillance measures in this analysis, it can serve as a useful surveillance tool as a complement to syndromic surveillance; it is a form of influenza surveillance that does not rely on healthcare-seeking behavior or reporting by healthcare providers.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children in the United States, March 2020 to February 2021.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) varies by race and ethnicity. This study assessed whether disparities in MIS-C in the United States by race and ethnicity exceed known disparities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence. METHODS: We compared the distribution of race and ethnicity among patients with MIS-C (<21 years of age, termed children) with onset March 2020 to February 2021 to that of children with COVID-19 and in the general population. Analysis was restricted to 369 counties with high completeness of race and ethnicity reporting for MIS-C and COVID-19. For each racial and ethnic group, observed numbers of patients with MIS-C were compared with expected numbers (observed/expected ratio) in children with COVID-19 and in the general population within these counties. RESULTS: Compared with children in the general population, MIS-C was more frequent among Hispanic (139% of expected) and non-Hispanic Black children (183%) and less frequent among non-Hispanic White (64%) and non-Hispanic Asian children (48%). Compared with children with COVID-19, MIS-C was more frequent in non-Hispanic Black children (207% of expected) and less frequent in non-Hispanic White children (68%); however, frequency was not different among Hispanic (102%) and non-Hispanic Asian (74%) children. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in MIS-C by race and ethnicity exist, even after controlling for COVID-19 disparities and geographic variations. The high proportion of MIS-C among Hispanic children and low proportion among non-Hispanic Asian children align with COVID-19 rates, while the high proportion among non-Hispanic Black children and low proportion among non-Hispanic White children are not explainable by COVID-19 rates.

Characteristics of Hospitalized Pediatric Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases in Chicago, Illinois, March-April 2020.

BACKGROUND: To date, no report on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pediatric patients in a large urban center with data on underlying comorbidities and coinfection for hospitalized cases has been published. METHODS: This was a case series of Chicago COVID-19 patients aged 0-17 years reported to the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) from March 5 to April 8, 2020. Enhanced case investigation was performed. χ 2 and Wilcoxon 2-sample tests were used to compare characteristics among hospitalized and nonhospitalized cases. RESULTS: During March 5-April 8, 2020, 6369 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported to CDPH; 64 (1.0%) were among children aged 0-17 years. Ten patients (16%) were hospitalized, and 7 (70%) required intensive care (median length of hospitalization, 4 days [range, 1-14 days]). Reported fever and dyspnea were significantly higher in hospitalized patients than in nonhospitalized patients (9/10 vs 28/54, P = .04 and 7/10 vs 10/54, P = .002, respectively). Hospitalized patients were significantly younger than nonhospitalized patients (median, 3.5 years vs 12 years; P = .03) and all either had an underlying comorbidity or coinfection. Among the 34 unique households with multiple laboratory-confirmed infections, the median number of laboratory-confirmed infections was 2 (range, 2-5), and 31 (91%) households had at least 1 COVID-19-infected adult. For 15 households with available data to assess transmission, 11 (73%) were adult-to-child, 2 (13%) child-to-child, and 2 (13%) child-to-adult. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced case investigation of hospitalized patients revealed that underlying comorbidities and coinfection might have contributed to severe disease. Given frequency of household transmission, healthcare providers should consider alternative dispositional planning for affected families of children living with comorbidities.

Risk Factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection in Homeless Shelters in Chicago, Illinois-March-May, 2020.

BACKGROUND: People experiencing homelessness are at increased risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but little is known about specific risk factors for infection within homeless shelters. METHODS: We performed widespread severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction testing and collected risk factor information at all homeless shelters in Chicago with at least 1 reported case of COVID-19 (n = 21). Multivariable, mixed-effects log-binomial models were built to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) for SARS-CoV-2 infection for both individual- and facility-level risk factors. RESULTS: During March 1 to May 1, 2020, 1717 shelter residents and staff were tested for SARS-CoV-2; 472 (27%) persons tested positive. Prevalence of infection was higher for residents (431 of 1435, 30%) than for staff (41 of 282, 15%) (prevalence ratio = 2.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.78-3.58). The majority of residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection (293 of 406 with available information about symptoms, 72%) reported no symptoms at the time of specimen collection or within the following 2 weeks. Among residents, sharing a room with a large number of people was associated with increased likelihood of infection (aPR for sharing with >20 people compared with single rooms = 1.76; 95% CI, 1.11-2.80), and current smoking was associated with reduced likelihood of infection (aPR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.60-0.85). At the facility level, a higher proportion of residents leaving and returning each day was associated with increased prevalence (aPR = 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.16), whereas an increase in the number of private bathrooms was associated with reduced prevalence (aPR for 1 additional private bathroom per 100 people = 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in homeless shelters. Reducing the number of residents sharing dormitories might reduce the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection. When community transmission is high, limiting movement of persons experiencing homelessness into and out of shelters might also be beneficial.

Consumer Response to Gastrointestinal Illness Perceived To Originate from Food Service Facilities.

Consumer responses to food product recalls have been documented, but there is little information on how consumers respond to illnesses or outbreaks associated with food service facilities. This study uses an on-line survey of 885 adults conducted in 2012 to determine how respondents changed their dining behavior following personal experiences with and secondhand reports of gastrointestinal illness believed to be associated with food service facilities. In response to personally experiencing gastrointestinal illness that they attributed to a food service facility, 90% of survey participants reported that they avoided the implicated facility for a time following the incident; almost one-half decided to never return to the facility they believed had made them ill. In response to a secondhand report of gastrointestinal illness, 86% of respondents reported they would avoid the implicated facility for a time, and 22% said they would never return to the facility. After both personal experiences of illness and secondhand reports of illness, consumer responses were significantly more severe toward the implicated facility than toward all other food service facilities. Frequent diners avoided facilities for shorter periods of time and were less likely to never go back to a facility than were infrequent diners. The survey results indicate that 24 to 97 fewer meals were purchased per respondent, or a 11 to 20% reduction in meals purchased outside the home, in the year following respondents' illness. Future estimates of the economic burden of foodborne illnesses, including those caused by noroviruses, should consider the impacts on the food service industry attributable to changes in consumer behavior, in addition to health care costs and loss of productivity.