Use of quantitative bias analysis to evaluate single-arm trials with real-world data external controls.

PURPOSE: Use of real-world data (RWD) for external controls added to single-arm trials (SAT) is increasingly prevalent in regulatory submissions. Due to inherent differences in the data-generating mechanisms, biases can arise. This paper aims to illustrate how to use quantitative bias analysis (QBA). METHODS: Advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) serves as an example, where many small subsets of patients with molecular tumor subtypes exist. First, some sources of bias that may occur in oncology when comparing RWD to SAT are described. Second, using a hypothetical immunotherapy agent, a dataset is simulated based on expert input for survival analysis of advanced NSCLC. Finally, we illustrate the impact of three biases: missing confounder, misclassification of exposure, and outcome evaluation. RESULTS: For each simulated scenario, bias was induced by removing or adding data; hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated applying conventional analyses. Estimating the bias-adjusted treatment effect and uncertainty required carefully selecting the bias model and bias factors. Although the magnitude of each biased and bias-adjusted HR appeared moderate in all three hypothetical scenarios, the direction of bias was variable. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that QBA can provide an intuitive framework for bias analysis, providing a key means of challenging assumptions about the evidence. However, the accuracy of bias analysis is itself dependent on correct specification of the bias model and bias factors. Ultimately, study design should reduce bias, but QBA allows us to evaluate the impact of unavoidable bias to assess the quality of the evidence.

Use of External Comparators for Health Technology Assessment Submissions Based on Single-Arm Trials.

BACKGROUND: Single-arm trial (SAT) data is increasingly reviewed for drug approvals by regulators and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) bodies. Supplementary data in the form of external comparators (ECs) can be used to provide clinical context to support these drug evaluations. In this study we characterized HTAs for SAT-based submissions, the use of supplementary EC data and outcomes from HTA review. METHODS: HTA Accelerator database was used to describe SAT-based HTA submissions with decisions (2011-2019). RESULTS: A total of 433 SAT-based HTA submissions were identified between 2011 and 2019 with a 13-fold increase during this period. Around 65%(283/433) were in oncology or hem-oncology. Around 52%(226/433) of submissions contained some type of EC data, including prior clinical trials (24%, 104) and real-world data (RWD) (20%, 87), but 40%(175) contained no EC data. The overall acceptance rate for SAT-based submissions was 48% and with RWD EC data acceptance was 59%. In the latest 5-year period (2015-2019), use of RWD ECs increased 22% as a proportion of submissions per year, whereas, prior trial ECs decreased (-14%) and use of no EC remained stable (-2%). Between 2015 to 2017 and 2018 to 2019, acceptance rate for RWD ECs increased by 20% (41% in 2015-2017 to 61% in 2018-2019) whereas prior trial EC use decreased by 10% and no EC submissions decreased 16%. Of 226 submissions using ECs, only 29%(66) used an adjusted indirect treatment comparison method. CONCLUSIONS: SAT-based submissions to HTA bodies are rapidly evolving in terms of composition and acceptance. Types of EC and methodological approach used are important determinants of positive outcomes.

Small cell lung cancer treatment and survival in Portugal: A retrospective analysis from the I-O Optimise initiative.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to describe treatment patterns and overall survival (OS) among a Portuguese cohort of patients with small cell lung cancer (SCLC). METHODS: This study utilised a database held by IPO-Porto, Portugal's largest oncology hospital. Adult patients diagnosed with SCLC at IPO-Porto between January 2012 and June 2017, with follow-up to December 2017, were included. Patients were stratified into subgroups with limited disease (LD) or extensive disease (ED). Treatment analyses were performed from 2015 onwards. RESULTS: Overall, 227 patients diagnosed with SCLC (37 LD; 190 ED) were analysed. Median OS (interquartile range [IQR]) was 15.0 months (3.8-39.3) for LD-SCLC and 5.0 months (1.7-10.3) for ED-SCLC. Among 19 patients diagnosed with LD-SCLC from 2015 onwards, 12 (63.2%) received initial treatment with systemic anticancer therapy (SACT) ± radiotherapy; 6 (31.6%) received best supportive care (BSC). Among 89 patients with ED-SCLC, 57 (68.5%) received SACT ± palliative radiotherapy; 28 (31.5%) received BSC. For patients receiving platinum doublet chemotherapy (±radiotherapy), median OS (IQR) was not reached for LD-SCLC and 5.4 months (2.3-10.9) for ED-SCLC. CONCLUSION: This real-world data analysis from a large Portuguese oncology hospital demonstrates a high disease burden for patients diagnosed with SCLC, particularly those with ED, and highlights a need for more effective therapies.

Real-world treatment patterns and survival outcomes for advanced non-small cell lung cancer in the pre-immunotherapy era in Portugal: a retrospective analysis from the I-O Optimise initiative.

BACKGROUND: As part of the multinational I-O Optimise research initiative, this retrospective cohort study of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) evaluated real-world treatment patterns and survival prior to immunotherapy reimbursement in Portugal. METHODS: This study utilized a database held by IPO-Porto, Portugal's largest oncology hospital. Adult patients diagnosed with stage IIIB or IV NSCLC from January 2012 to December 2016 at IPO-Porto, with follow-up to June 2017, were included. Treatment analyses were performed from 2015 onwards. Kaplan-Meier methods were used for overall survival (OS). Factors associated with OS and systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) treatment were assessed using multivariate statistical models. RESULTS: Of 1524 patients diagnosed with NSCLC at IPO-Porto, 1008 patients had advanced disease (stage IIIB: 10.1%, 154/1524, stage IV: 56.0%, 854/1524). For those with advanced disease, median age was 65 years (range: 21-92) and 75.6% (762/1008) were male. Median OS (interquartile range [IQR]) was 11.4 (5.2-26.9) months for stage IIIB and 6.3 (2.4-15.0) months for stage IV. Factors associated with decreased risk of death included female sex and epidermal growth factor receptor gene (EGFR)/anaplastic lymphoma kinase gene (ALK) mutations/rearrangements; factors associated with increased risk of death included older age and stage IV disease. Among patients diagnosed in 2015 or 2016, 75.8% (297/392) received ≥1 line of SACT. Platinum-based chemotherapy was the most common first-line therapy (non-squamous cell carcinoma [NSQ]: 72.9%; squamous cell carcinoma [SQ] 87.3%, 55/63; patients with EGFR/ALK mutations/rearrangements primarily received tyrosine kinase inhibitors). The likelihood of receiving SACT was lower in older patients and those diagnosed with stage IV disease. Patients not receiving SACT had poor survival outcomes (median OS [IQR]: NSQ, 1.8 [1.1-3.1] months; SQ, 2.3 (1.3-3.4) months), while median OS (IQR) in SACT-treated patients was 12.6 (6.1-24.5) months for NSQ and 10.3 (5.7-15.9) months for SQ. CONCLUSIONS: This real-world data analysis from a large Portuguese oncology hospital demonstrates a high disease burden for advanced NSCLC in the pre-immunotherapy era, with nearly one-quarter of patients not receiving SACT. Even in patients receiving SACT, median survival was only about 1 year.

Comparison of Hematologic and Biochemical Test Results in Blood Samples Obtained by Jugular Venipuncture Versus Nail Clip in Moluccan Cockatoos (Cacatua moluccensis).

In birds, blood samples are often collected from the jugular, medial metatarsal, and basilic vein. Samples are sometimes collected by toe nail clip, but concerns to avoid drawing blood from the nail include pain after nail clips for blood collection, potential differences in complete blood count (CBC) results, and potential contamination with uric acid values. To compare differences in biochemical and hematologic values in blood samples obtained by jugular venipuncture versus toenail clip, blood samples were collected from Moluccan cockatoos (Cacatua moluccensis) (N = 23) and sent to a commercial laboratory for routine CBCs and serum biochemical analysis. Results showed good agreement between venipuncture and nail clip blood samples in red blood cell count, packed cell volume, heterophil count and percentage, lymphocyte count and percentage, aspartate aminotransferase, chloride, creatine phosphokinase, glucose, lactate dehydrogenase, total protein, and uric acid values. Constant bias was found in values of bile acids, cholesterol, and hemoglobin. Proportional bias toward higher values in the jugular sample were found in total white blood cell (WBC) count and inorganic phosphorus. Serum calcium plots revealed a proportional bias toward higher values in the toe nail blood when values were increased. Results suggest some differences in WBC count, bile acids, calcium, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and phosphorus values between blood samples collected by jugular venipuncture and samples collected by toe nail clip, but the differences are mostly minor and, with the possible exception of inorganic phosphorus and marginally elevated or very low WBC counts, are unlikely to affect the use or interpretation of the avian blood panel.

Using Climate-HIV to describe real-world clinical outcomes for people living with HIV taking dolutegravir-based regimens.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to describe the real-world use and effectiveness of dolutegravir-based regimens (DBRs) in routine clinical practice in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Retrospective analysis was conducted using data from four National Health Service trusts using Climate-HIV, an electronic case record system. Eligible patients were aged ≥18 years with HIV-1 infection who were prescribed a DBR from December 2012 to March 2018. Outcome measurements were accessed at DBR initiation and at weeks 24, 48 and 96 and the last recorded visit up to the extraction date (last measurement). The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients with HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL at Week 48. RESULTS: The study cohort included 934 patients; 337 (36%) were female, 414 (47%) were white and 717 (77%) were treatment experienced (TE). The Kaplan-Meier estimated probability of achieving HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL at 48 weeks was 96% for treatment-naive (TN) patients and 86% for TE patients. Median times to viral suppression (<50 copies/mL) were 49 and 57 days for TN and TE patients with detectable baseline viral load, respectively, according to Kaplan-Meier analysis. Median follow-up time was 377 days (interquartile range: 131-683). At last measurement, 87% (809/934) of patients remained on a DBR; among those patients, 681 (84%) had HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of virologic suppression and low rates of discontinuation of DBRs were seen in a large, diverse, UK-based population with HIV-1 infection. These findings are broadly consistent with efficacy data from phase III studies.

Treatment and outcomes for early non-small-cell lung cancer: a retrospective analysis of a Portuguese hospital database.

AIM: This observational study evaluated treatment patterns and survival for patients with stage I-IIIA non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). MATERIALS & METHODS: Adults newly diagnosed with NSCLC in 2012-2016 at IPO-Porto hospital were included. Treatment data were available for patients diagnosed in 2015-2016. RESULTS: 495 patients were included (median age: 67 years). The most common treatments were surgery alone or with another therapy (stage I: 66%) and systemic anticancer therapy plus radiotherapy (stage II: 54%; stage IIIA: 59%). One-year OS (95% CI) for patients with stage I, II and IIIA NSCLC (diagnosed 2012-2016) were 92% (88-96), 71% (62-82) and 69% (63-75), respectively; one-year OS (95% CI) for treated patients with stage I-II or stage IIIA NSCLC (diagnosed 2015-2016) were 89% (81-97) and 86% (75-98) for non-squamous cell and 76% (60-95) and 49% (34-70) for squamous cell NSCLC. CONCLUSION: Treatment advances are strongly needed for stage I-IIIA NSCLC, especially for patients with squamous cell histology.

A Framework for Methodological Choice and Evidence Assessment for Studies Using External Comparators from Real-World Data.

Several approaches have been proposed recently to accelerate the pathway from drug discovery to patient access. These include novel designs such as using controls external to the clinical trial where standard randomised controls are not feasible. In parallel, there has been rapid growth in the application of routinely collected healthcare 'real-world' data for post-market safety and effectiveness studies. Thus, using real-world data to establish an external comparator arm in clinical trials is a natural next step. Regulatory authorities have begun to endorse the use of external comparators in certain circumstances, with some positive outcomes for new drug approvals. Given the potential to introduce bias associated with observational studies, there is a need for recommendations on how external comparators should be best used. In this article, we propose an evaluation framework for real-world data external comparator studies that enables full assessment of available evidence and related bias. We define the principle of exchangeability and discuss the applicability of criteria described by Pocock for consideration of the exchangeability of the external and trial populations. We explore how trial designs using real-world data external comparators fit within the evidence hierarchy and propose a four-step process for good conduct of external comparator studies. This process is intended to maximise the quality of evidence based on careful study design and the combination of covariate balancing, bias analysis and combining outcomes.

Identity-by-descent estimation with population- and pedigree-based imputation in admixed family data.

BACKGROUND: In the past few years, imputation approaches have been mainly used in population-based designs of genome-wide association studies, although both family- and population-based imputation methods have been proposed. With the recent surge of family-based designs, family-based imputation has become more important. Imputation methods for both designs are based on identity-by-descent (IBD) information. Apart from imputation, the use of IBD information is also common for several types of genetic analysis, including pedigree-based linkage analysis. METHODS: We compared the performance of several family- and population-based imputation methods in large pedigrees provided by Genetic Analysis Workshop 19 (GAW19). We also evaluated the performance of a new IBD mapping approach that we propose, which combines IBD information from known pedigrees with information from unrelated individuals. RESULTS: Different combinations of the imputation methods have varied imputation accuracies. Moreover, we showed gains from the use of both known pedigrees and unrelated individuals with our IBD mapping approach over the use of known pedigrees only. CONCLUSIONS: Our results represent accuracies of different combinations of imputation methods that may be useful for data sets similar to the GAW19 pedigree data. Our IBD mapping approach, which uses both known pedigree and unrelated individuals, performed better than classical linkage analysis.