Development of Novel, Value-Based, Digital Endpoints for Clinical Trials: A Structured Approach Toward Fit-for-Purpose Validation.

Novel digital endpoints gathered via wearables, small devices, or algorithms hold great promise for clinical trials. However, implementation has been slow because of a lack of guidelines regarding the validation process of these new measurements. In this paper, we propose a pragmatic approach toward selection and fit-for-purpose validation of digital endpoints. Measurements should be value-based, meaning the measurements should directly measure or be associated with meaningful outcomes for patients. Devices should be assessed regarding technological validity. Most importantly, a rigorous clinical validation process should appraise the tolerability, difference between patients and controls, repeatability, detection of clinical events, and correlation with traditional endpoints. When technically and clinically fit-for-purpose, case building in interventional clinical trials starts to generate evidence regarding the response to new or existing health-care interventions. This process may lead to the digital endpoint replacing traditional endpoints, such as clinical rating scales or questionnaires in clinical trials. We recommend initiating more data-sharing collaborations to prevent unnecessary duplication of research and integration of value-based measurements in clinical care to enhance acceptance by health-care professionals. Finally, we invite researchers and regulators to adopt this approach to ensure a timely implementation of digital measurements and value-based thinking in clinical trial design and health care. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Novel digital endpoints are often cited as promising for the clinical trial of the future. However, clear validation guidelines are lacking in the literature. This paper contains pragmatic criteria for the selection, technical validation, and clinical validation of novel digital endpoints and provides recommendations for future work and collaboration.

Challenging the challenge: A randomized controlled trial evaluating the inflammatory response and pain perception of healthy volunteers after single-dose LPS administration, as a potential model for inflammatory pain in early-phase drug development.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Following an infection, cytokines not only regulate the acute immune response, but also contribute to symptoms such as inflammatory hyperalgesia. We aimed to characterize the acute inflammatory response induced by a human endotoxemia model, and its effect on pain perception using evoked pain tests in two different dose levels. We also attempted to determine whether combining a human endotoxemia challenge with measurement of pain thresholds in healthy subjects could serve as a model to study drug effects on inflammatory pain. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a placebo-controlled, randomized, cross-over study in 24 healthy males. Twelve subjects were administered a bolus of 1 ng/kg LPS intravenously, and twelve 2 ng/kg LPS. Before days of placebo/LPS administration, subjects completed a full study day without study drug administration, but with identical pain threshold testing. Blood sampling and evoked pain tests (electrical burst and -stair, heat, pressure, and cold pressor test) were performed pre-dose and at frequent intervals up to 10hr post-dose. Data were analysed with a repeated-measures ANCOVA. For both dose levels, LPS induced an evident acute inflammatory response, but did not significantly affect any of the pain modalities. In a post-hoc analysis, lowering of pain thresholds was observed in the first 3 h after dosing, corresponding with the peak of the acute inflammatory response around 1-3 h post-dose. CONCLUSION: Mild acute systemic inflammation, as induced by 1 ng/kg and 2 ng/kg LPS intravenous administration, did not significantly change pain thresholds in this study. The endotoxemia model in combination with evoked pain tests is not suitable to study acute inflammatory hyperalgesia in healthy males.

The use of biomarkers in human pharmacology (Phase I) studies.

The development of a new medicine is a risky and costly undertaking that requires careful planning. This planning is largely applied to the operational aspects of the development and less so to the scientific objectives and methodology. The drugs that will be developed in the future will increasingly affect pathophysiological pathways that have been largely unexplored. Such drug prototypes cannot be immediately introduced in large clinical trials. The effects of the drug on normal physiology, pathophysiology, and eventually the desired clinical effects will need to be evaluated in a structured approach, based on the definition of drug development as providing answers to important questions by appropriate clinical studies. This review describes the selection process for biomarkers that are fit-for-purpose for the stage of drug development in which they are used. This structured and practical approach is widely applicable and particularly useful for the early stages of innovative drug development.

Glutathione-PEGylated liposomal methylprednisolone in comparison to free methylprednisolone: slow release characteristics and prolonged lymphocyte depression in a first-in-human study.

AIMS: Intravenous high-dose free methylprednisolone (MP) hemisuccinate is the primary treatment for an acute relapse in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. However, it is inconvenient and its side effects are undesirable. Both dose and dosing frequency can be reduced by incorporating free MP in glutathione-PEGylated liposomes, creating a slow-release formulation with reduced toxicity and prolonged peripheral efficacy. This first-in-human study was designed to assess the safety, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of glutathione-PEGylated liposomes containing MP (2B3-201). METHODS: The first part was a double-blind, three-way cross over study in 18 healthy male subjects, receiving ascending doses of 2B3-201, active comparator (free MP) or placebo. Part 2 of the study was an open-label infusion of 2B3-201 (different doses), exploring pretreatment with antihistamines and different infusion schedules in another 18 healthy male subjects, and a cross-over study in six healthy female subjects. MP plasma concentrations, lymphocyte counts, adrenocorticotropic hormone, osteocalcin and fasting glucose were determined. Safety and tolerability profiles were assessed based on adverse events, safety measurements and central nervous system tests. RESULTS: The most frequent recorded AE related to 2B3-201 was an infusion related reaction (89%). 2B3-201 was shown to have a plasma half-life between 24 and 37 h and caused a prolonged decrease in the lymphocyte count, adrenocorticotropic hormone and osteocalcin, and a rise in fasting glucose. CONCLUSION: 2B3-201 is considered safe, with no clinically relevant changes in central nervous system safety parameters and no serious adverse events. In addition, 2B3-201 shows a long plasma half-life and prolonged immunosuppressive effects.

Effect profile of paracetamol, Δ9-THC and promethazine using an evoked pain test battery in healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: A battery of evoked pain tasks (PainCart) was developed to investigate the pharmacodynamic properties of novel analgesics in early-phase clinical research. As part of its clinical validation, compounds with different pharmacological mechanisms of actions are investigated. The aim was to investigate the analgesic effects of classic and nonclassic analgesics compared to a sedating negative control in a randomized placebo-controlled crossover study in 24 healthy volunteers using the PainCart. METHODS: The PainCart consisted of pain tasks eliciting electrical, pressure, heat, cold and inflammatory pain. Subjective scales for cognitive functioning and psychotomimetic effects were included. Subjects were administered each of the following oral treatments: paracetamol (1000 mg), Δ9-THC (10 mg), promethazine (50 mg) or matching placebo. Pharmacodynamic measurements were performed at baseline and repeated up to 10 h postdose. RESULTS: Paracetamol did not show a significant reduction in pain sensation or subjective cognitive functioning compared to placebo. Promethazine induced a statistically significant reduction in PTT for cold pressor and pressure stimulation. Furthermore, reduced subjective alertness was observed. Δ9-THC showed a statistically significant decrease in PTT for electrical and pressure stimulation. Δ9-THC also demonstrated subjective effects, including changes in alertness and calmness, as well as feeling high and psychotomimetic effects. CONCLUSIONS: This study found a decreased pain tolerance due to Δ9-THC and promethazine, or lack thereof, using an evoked pain task battery. Pain thresholds following paracetamol administration remained unchanged, which may be due to insufficient statistical power. We showed that pain thresholds determined using this pain test battery are not driven by sedation. SIGNIFICANCE: The multimodal battery of evoked pain tasks utilized in this study may play an important role in early-phase clinical drug development. This battery of pain tasks is not sensitive to the effects of sedation alone, and thus suitable to investigate the analgesic potential of novel analgesic compounds.

Intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids and vitamin E reduces the risk of developing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: To assess whether the premorbid dietary intake of fatty acids, cholesterol, glutamate or antioxidants was associated with the risk of developing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). METHODS: Patients referred to our clinic during 2001-2002, who had definite, probable or possible ALS according to El Escorial criteria, without a familial history of ALS, were asked to participate in a case-control study (132 patients and 220 healthy controls). A food-frequency questionnaire was used to assess dietary intake for the nutrients of interest. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed with adjustment for confounding factors (sex, age, level of education, energy intake, body mass index and smoking). RESULTS: A high intake of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) and vitamin E was significantly associated with a reduced risk of developing ALS (PUFA: odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.2 to 0.7, p = 0.001; vitamin E: OR = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.2 to 0.7, p = 0.001). PUFA and vitamin E appeared to act synergistically, because in a combined analysis the trend OR for vitamin E was further reduced from 0.67 to 0.37 (p = 0.02), and that for PUFA from 0.60 to 0.26 (p = 0.005), with a significant interaction term (p = 0.03). The intake of flavonols, lycopene, vitamin C, vitamin B2, glutamate, calcium or phytoestrogens was not associated with the risk of developing ALS. CONCLUSION: A high intake of PUFAs and vitamin E is associated with a 50-60% decreased risk of developing ALS, and these nutrients appear to act synergistically.

No evidence of potentiation of buprenorphine by milnacipran in healthy subjects using a nociceptive test battery.

BACKGROUND: Serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors inhibit the reuptake of serotonin and noradrenalin and are used in the treatment of neuropathic pain. Animal studies suggest that milnacipran co-administered with opioids may potentiate the analgesic effect of µ-opioid receptor agonists. This study hypothesized that co-administration of milnacipran and buprenorphine would have a synergistic effect in evoked pain models in healthy subjects. METHODS: This was a randomized double-blinded, placebo-controlled, four-way cross-over, multiple dose clinical trial to investigate the analgesic effects of buprenorphine (placebo, 0.5, 1 and 3 µg/kg) in combination with milnacipran (placebo, 25 and 50 mg) in healthy subjects. RESULTS: 11 healthy men were enrolled in the study. Buprenorphine alone showed a dose-response relationship indicative of anti-nociception in the pain tests. Following milnacipran administration, no changes were seen in the pharmacodynamic measurements for pain, psychomotor function, body stability or eye movements. For the electrical tests, cold pressor test and pressure pain test, buprenorphine alone was superior when compared with buprenorphine plus milnacipran. No differences in pharmacodynamic variables, besides an increase in pupil/iris ratio, were observed after repeated administration of milnacipran 50 mg. Single and multiple doses of 25 or 50 mg milnacipran did not further potentiate the anti-nociceptive effects of buprenorphine. CONCLUSIONS: Buprenorphine showed dose-dependent effects consistent with its pharmacological profile. Milnacipran alone did not affect any of the pain variables. The combination of both buprenorphine and milnacipran did not potentiate or show a synergistic effect on the pain models used in this study. SIGNIFICANCE: Buprenorphine is known to be a potent opioid agonist. Animal studies suggest that milnacipran co-administered with opioids may potentiate the analgesic effect of µ-opioid receptor agonists. Here, we found that buprenorphine showed a dose-dependent analgesic effect, but that no potentiation or synergy on a battery of evoked pain tasks could be observed after co-administration of both milnacipran and buprenorphine.

Quantifying Beta-Galactosylceramide Kinetics in Cerebrospinal Fluid of Healthy Subjects Using Deuterium Labeling.

Therapeutics promoting myelin synthesis may enhance recovery in demyelinating diseases, such as multiple sclerosis. However, no suitable method exists to quantify myelination. The turnover of galactosylceramide (myelin component) is indicative of myelination in mice, but its turnover has not been determined in humans. Here, six healthy subjects consumed 120 mL 70% D2 O daily for 70 days to label galactosylceramide. We then used mass spectrometry and compartmental modeling to quantify the turnover rate of galactosylceramide in cerebrospinal fluid. Maximum deuterium enrichment of body water ranged from 1.5-3.9%, whereas that of galactosylceramide was much lower: 0.05-0.14%. This suggests a slow turnover rate, which was confirmed by the model-estimated galactosylceramide turnover rate of 0.00168 day-1 , which corresponds to a half-life of 413 days. Additional studies in patients with multiple sclerosis are needed to investigate whether galactosylceramide turnover could be used as an outcome measure in clinical trials with remyelination therapies.

PCV chemotherapy for recurrent glioblastoma multiforme.

The authors evaluated response, time to progression (TTP), survival, prognostic factors, and toxicity in 63 patients with a recurrent glioblastoma multiforme treated with procarbazine, lomustine, and vincristine (PCV) chemotherapy. Complete and partial response was observed in two (3%) and five patients (8%). In 16 patients (25%), stable disease was observed. Median TTP and survival were 13 and 33 weeks. Age < 40 years and Karnofsky Performance Status > or = 90 were associated with longer TTP and survival. PCV treatment was generally well tolerated.

Ovariectomy and 17beta-estradiol modulate disease progression of a mouse model of ALS.

The incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is higher among men than women but rises in women after the menopause. Estrogens may play a protective role. Treatment with estrogens has been shown to be neuroprotective in models of several neurodegenerative diseases. We therefore determined the effect of ovariectomy on female G93A mSOD1 transgenic mice, and the effect of subsequent treatment with 17beta-estradiol (E2). Ovariectomy led to a significant acceleration of disease progression of the mice, and high-dose E2 treatment significantly delayed disease progression of ovariectomized G93A mSOD1 transgenic mice. We conclude that treatment with E2 may also delay disease progression of post-menopausal women with ALS.

Zinc amplifies mSOD1-mediated toxicity in a transgenic mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Transgenic mice overexpressing the human mutated form (G93A) of Cu,Zn-superoxide dismutase (mSOD1) develop motor neuron degeneration resembling amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. In vitro studies have shown that mSOD1-induced, reactive oxygen species-mediated apoptosis of motor neurons depends on the presence of copper and the relative absence of zinc. Oral intake of zinc sulphate induces the expression of metallothioneins, enzymes that decrease oxidative stress, and leads to higher serum zinc, and lower copper levels. We therefore tested the effect of chronic oral administration of zinc sulfate (0.075 and 0.375 g/kg) on disease onset and survival of mSOD1 transgenic mice. We observed that zinc sulfate, rather than prolonging survival, decreased survival. We conclude that zinc sulfate amplifies the mSOD1 transgenic mouse phenotype. This finding may shed more light on the role of zinc in mSOD1-mediated toxicity.

Inter- and intraindividual variability of riluzole serum concentrations in patients with ALS.

All patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are treated with the same dose of riluzole: 50 mg twice daily. Reasonably large interindividual differences in clearance of the drug have been reported. The relatively small group of patients with high blood concentrations of riluzole has probably primarily influenced the efficacy and the incidence of side-effects in the previously conducted clinical trials with riluzole. Individual dosing of the drug may, in the case of large interindividual differences in serum concentrations of the drug, be necessary in the future. Exact data concerning the plasma and serum concentrations of riluzole in patients with ALS, after standardized intake of the drug, diet and blood sampling are unknown so far. In this study, inter- and intraindividual variability of serum and plasma levels of riluzole in 21 patients with "probable" or "definite" ALS were determined. The interindividual variability of peak serum levels (coefficient of variation=74%) was significantly larger than intraindividual variability (p<0.001). Serum levels were not correlated with age or smoking status. The determination of a correlation between riluzole serum concentrations and survival of patients with ALS will be the aim of further studies.

[Diagnostic image (162) A woman with temporary hemiplegia. Temporary embolic occlusion of the left middle cerebral artery by a thrombus]. / Diagnose in beeld (162). Een vrouw met tijdelijke hemiplegie. Tijdelijke afsluiting van de A. cerebri media door een trombus.

A 48-year-old woman with right-sided hemiplegia by embolic occlusion of the left middle cerebral artery was treated with alteplase. A pre- and post-treatment CT angiography scan showed the vanishing blood clot.

[Fever, large eyes and confusion; the anticholinergic syndrome]. / Koorts, grote ogen en verwardheid; het anticholinergisch syndroom.

A 52-year-old woman was in a confused state and had difficulty walking and swallowing, as well as dysarthria. That same day she had consumed some berries, which she thought were bilberries, but she had instead eaten Atropa belladonna (deadly nightshade). She made a spontaneous and full recovery within a few days. A 3-year-old boy, with amblyopia, was vomiting, had difficulty walking and had a temperature of 39 degrees C. He was agitated and had a warm, red skin and dilated pupils that did not respond to light. A suspected intoxication with a parasympathicolytic agent was confirmed upon an empty bottle of atropine eye drops being found at his home. The boy made a full recovery following treatment with physostigmine. It is important to consider an anticholinergenic intoxication in the case of patients who are confused, have difficulty speaking, large fixed pupils and fever. A specific anamnesis with respect to medicines, eye drops and berries or plants consumed can confirm the diagnosis. It is important to recognise an anticholinergic intoxication because without treatment, the outcome can be fatal.

An association study of riluzole serum concentration and survival and disease progression in patients with ALS.

Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) who are treated with the antiglutamatergic drug riluzole receive a fixed-dose regimen of 50 mg b.i.d. The drug has been shown to increase tracheostomy-free survival by 3-6 months. The pharmacokinetics of riluzole show a high interindividual variability. Riluzole serum concentrations are associated with side effects and ALS symptoms, but the effect of the actual blood level of riluzole on disease progression and survival is unknown. We measured trough and peak serum concentrations of riluzole in 160 patients with ALS, and estimated the area under the curve for one dosage interval (AUCi) using a Bayesian method. We then determined the association between riluzole AUCi and survival over a 5-year period, and between riluzole AUCi and disease progression, defined by the rates of decline of arm strength and vital lung capacity. No significant association was found between riluzole AUCi and survival or disease progression.

Pharmacokinetics of riluzole: evidence for glucuronidation as a major metabolic pathway not associated with UGT1A1 genotype.

Pharmacokinetic studies of riluzole show a large inter-individual variability of the drug's clearance and serum concentrations. Optimizing the individual dosage of riluzole may have the potential to improve the effect of riluzole treatment on survival of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Limited data are available on the in vivo metabolic elimination of riluzole. From in vitro experiments, CYP1A2 seems to be mainly involved in riluzole clearance. However, in vitro studies suggest that formation of riluzole-glucuronide plays a role and may determine the drug's pharmacokinetic variability in patients to some extent. In the current study the formation of riluzole-glucuronide was examined in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. It also aimed at relating glucuronidation of riluzole to differential UGT1A1*28 genotypes. The formation of riluzole-glucuronide was confirmed in serum from a group of 14 ALS patients taking riluzole. Riluzole-glucuronide concentrations were positively associated with those of riluzole. In a separate group of 131 ALS patients taking riluzole, the UGT1A1*28 genotype was not associated with trough or peak serum concentrations of riluzole. This study provides evidence that the in vivo metabolic elimination of riluzole in ALS patients involves glucuronidation. The results do not indicate that glucuronidation of riluzole highly contributes to the drug's inter-individual pharmacokinetic variability.

Few adverse effects of long-term creatine supplementation in a placebo-controlled trial.

Although oral creatine supplementation is very popular among athletes, no prospective placebo-controlled studies on the adverse effects of long-term supplementation have yet been conducted. We performed a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of creatine monohydrate in patients with the neurodegenerative disease amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, because of the neuroprotective effects it was shown to have in animal experiments. The purpose of this paper is to compare the adverse effects, and to describe the effects on indirect markers of renal function of long-term creatine supplementation. 175 subjects (age = 57.7 +/- 11.1 y) were randomly assigned to receive creatine monohydrate 10 g daily or placebo during an average period of 310 days. After one month, two months and from then on every fourth month, adverse effects were scored using dichotomous questionnaires, plasma urea concentrations were measured, and urinary creatine and albumin concentrations were determined. No significant differences in the occurrence at any time of adverse effects due to creatine supplementation were found (23 % nausea in the creatine group, vs. 24 % in the placebo group, 19 % gastro-intestinal discomfort in the creatine group, vs. 18 % in the placebo group, 35 % diarrhoea in the creatine group, vs. 24 % in the placebo group). After two months of treatment, oedematous limbs were seen more often in subjects using creatine, probably due to water retention. Severe diarrhoea (n = 2) and severe nausea (n = 1) caused 3 subjects in the creatine group to stop intake of creatine, after which these adverse effects subsided. Long-term supplementation of creatine did not lead to an increase of plasma urea levels (5.69 +/- 1.47 before treatment vs. 5.26 +/- 1.44 at the end of treatment) or to a higher prevalence of micro-albuminuria (5.4 % before treatment vs. 1.8 % at the end of treatment).

Physical activity and the association with sporadic ALS.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether lifetime physical activity during work and leisure time is associated with an increased risk of developing ALS and to determine the association between physical activity and duration or age at onset of disease. METHODS: Patients referred to our clinic during the 1-year period 2001 to 2002 who had definite, probable, or possible ALS according to El Escorial criteria, without a familial history of ALS, were asked to participate in the study. A case-control study was performed taking into account all occupational and leisure time activities of patients (n = 219) and controls (n = 254). Multivariate analysis included confounding factors (sex, age, level of education, body mass index, alcohol use, and smoking). Three quantitative measures of cumulative physical activity were calculated: until 1 year before the onset of disease (total physical activity), the last 10 years before the onset of disease (late physical activity), and until the age of 25 (early physical activity). In addition, a systematic review of all published data is presented. RESULTS: Smoking and alcohol use were independently associated with ALS (current smoking increased risk, OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.0 to 3.0, p = 0.03, ever/current alcohol use decreased risk, OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.3 to 0.9, p = 0.04). No significant association with occupational or leisure time physical activity was found (all ORs < or = 1.7), which was in agreement with most studies with the highest level of evidence in the systematic review. Higher leisure time activities were associated with an earlier age at onset: activity levels before age of 25 (p < 0.001, 7 years earlier), and activity during the last 10 years (p < 0.001, 3 years earlier). CONCLUSIONS: There is no association between physical activity and the risk of developing ALS.

Association between CYP1A2 activity and riluzole clearance in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

AIMS: Riluzole is used in a fixed dosing schedule of 50 mg twice daily to treat patients with amyotropic lateral sclerosis (ALS), one form of motor neurone disease. The large variability in the pharmacokinetics of riluzole may be a factor contributing to its limited therapeutic benefit. Riluzole is assumed to be mainly metabolized by the cytochrome P450 enzyme 1A2 (CYP1A2). The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between CYP1A2 activity and riluzole clearance with a view to optimize drug treatment. METHODS: A group of 30 ALS patients participated in the study. In each patient the CYP1A2 activity was determined using caffeine as a metabolic probe. Riluzole clearance was estimated from serum drug concentration measurements followed by Bayesian fitting. RESULTS: Riluzole clearance and the serum paraxanthine : caffeine (P/C) ratio showed a positive correlation (r = 0.693; P = 0.0002). Linear regression analysis identified the P/C ratio (beta: 1.16) and height (beta: 0.027) as independent predictors of riluzole clearance (adjusted r2 = 0.369). CONCLUSIONS: The P/C ratio, used as measure of CYP1A2 activity, significantly correlated with the riluzole clearance, although only 37% of the observed variability could be explained.

SMN genotypes producing less SMN protein increase susceptibility to and severity of sporadic ALS.

BACKGROUND: ALS is believed to be multifactorial in origin with modifying genes affecting its clinical expression. Childhood-onset spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is an autosomal recessive disorder of motor neurons, caused by mutations of the survival motor neuron (SMN) gene. The SMN gene exists in two highly homologous variants: SMN1, the causative gene responsible for the production of the majority of functional SMN protein, and SMN2, responsible for the production of less protein but sufficient for modifying the SMA phenotype. OBJECTIVE: To test whether SMN genotypes are associated with susceptibility to and severity of sporadic ALS. METHODS: We performed competitive quantitative PCR analysis for both SMN1 and SMN2 genes in 242 clinically well-defined ALS patients and 175 controls. The combined determination of SMN1 and SMN2 copies also allowed for an estimation of the level of SMN for each patient (estimated SMN protein level = SMN1 copy number + 0.20 x SMN2 copy number). RESULTS: One copy of SMN1 was associated with an increased risk of developing ALS (odds ratio = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.2 to 14.2, p = 0.02) and ALS patients carried fewer SMN2 copy numbers (p < 0.001). Sixty-one percent of patients had an estimated protein SMN level < or = 2.2 vs only 36% of controls (p = 0.0000004). Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that lower SMN2 copy numbers and lower levels of estimated SMN protein (hazard ratio = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1 to 1.6, p = 0.03) were associated with an increased mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: SMN genotypes producing less SMN protein increase susceptibility to and severity of ALS.