Clinical Application of a Novel Genetic Risk Score for Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Cardiometabolic Disease.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms that are associated with an increased risk of stroke. We sought to determine whether a genetic risk score (GRS) could identify subjects at higher risk for ischemic stroke after accounting for traditional clinical risk factors in 5 trials across the spectrum of cardiometabolic disease. METHODS: Subjects who had consented for genetic testing and who were of European ancestry from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation), SOLID-TIMI 52 (Stabilization of Plaques Using Darapladib), SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin), and FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Patients With Elevated Risk) trials were included in this analysis. A set of 32 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with ischemic stroke was used to calculate a GRS in each patient and identify tertiles of genetic risk. A Cox model was used to calculate hazard ratios for ischemic stroke across genetic risk groups, adjusted for clinical risk factors. RESULTS: In 51 288 subjects across the 5 trials, a total of 960 subjects had an ischemic stroke over a median follow-up period of 2.5 years. After adjusting for clinical risk factors, a higher GRS was strongly and independently associated with increased risk for ischemic stroke (P trend=0.009). In comparison with individuals in the lowest third of the GRS, individuals in the middle and top tertiles of the GRS had adjusted hazard ratios of 1.15 (95% CI, 0.98-1.36) and 1.24 (95% CI 1.05-1.45) for ischemic stroke, respectively. Stratification into subgroups revealed that the performance of the GRS appeared stronger in the primary prevention cohort with an adjusted hazard ratio for the top versus lowest tertile of 1.27 (95% CI, 1.04-1.53), in comparison with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.06 (95% CI, 0.81-1.41) in subjects with previous stroke. In an exploratory analysis of patients with atrial fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2, high genetic risk conferred a 4-fold higher risk of stroke and an absolute risk equivalent to those with CHA2DS2-VASc score of 3. CONCLUSIONS: Across a broad spectrum of subjects with cardiometabolic disease, a 32-single-nucleotide polymorphism GRS was a strong, independent predictor of ischemic stroke. In patients with atrial fibrillation but lower CHA2DS2-VASc scores, the GRS identified patients with risk comparable to those with higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores.

Predicting Benefit From Evolocumab Therapy in Patients With Atherosclerotic Disease Using a Genetic Risk Score: Results From the FOURIER Trial.

BACKGROUND: The ability of a genetic risk score to predict risk in established cardiovascular disease and identify individuals who derive greater benefit from PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) inhibition has not been established. METHODS: We studied 14 298 patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease from the FOURIER trial (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Researh With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk). A 27-single-nucleotide polymorphism genetic risk score defined low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk. Patients were also categorized by major atherosclerotic risk factors including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥100 mg/dl, and smoking; multiple (≥2) risk factors was considered high clinical risk. Outcomes consisted of major coronary events (coronary heart death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization) and major vascular events (major coronary events and ischemic stroke). Median follow-up was 2.3 years. RESULTS: After we adjusted for clinical factors, the genetic risk score was associated with risk for both major vascular events (Ptrend=0.005) and major coronary events (Ptrend<0.0001). Individuals with intermediate and high genetic risk scores had 1.23- and 1.65-fold increased hazard for major coronary events, respectively. Elevated genetic risk was additive to major atherosclerotic risk factors and identified patients more likely to benefit from evolocumab. There was no benefit for major vascular events in patients without multiple clinical risk factors or high genetic risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.02; absolute risk reduction [ARR], -0.2%, P=0.86). In contrast, there was a 13% relative risk reduction (HR, 0.87 [0.75-0.998], P=0.047) and a 1.4% ARR in patients with multiple clinical risk factors but without high genetic risk and a 31% relative risk reduction (HR, 0.69 [0.55-0.86], P=0.0012), and 4.0% ARR in patients with high genetic risk, irrespective of clinical risk (Ptrend for HR=0.017, ARR Ptrend=0.004). Patients with high genetic risk who received evolocumab had event rates similar to patients with a low burden of both genetic and clinical risk. CONCLUSION: Patients without multiple clinical risk factors or high genetic risk had a low event rate and did not appear to derive benefit from evolocumab over 2.3 years. Conversely, patients with multiple clinical risk factors but without high genetic risk had intermediate risk and intermediate risk reduction. Patients with high genetic risk, regardless of clinical risk, had a high event rate and derived the greatest relative and absolute benefit from evolocumab, which mitigated this risk.

The Effect of PCSK9 (Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9) Inhibition on the Risk of Venous Thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between cholesterol levels and risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. We set out to determine the effect of PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9) inhibition on the risk of VTE, explore potential mechanisms, and examine the efficacy in subgroups with clinically and genetically defined risk. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis of the FOURIER trial (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Subjects With Elevated Risk) testing whether evolocumab reduces the risk of VTE events (deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism). Data from FOURIER and ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment with Alirocumab) were then combined in a meta-analysis to assess the class effect of PCSK9 inhibition on the risk of VTE. We also analyzed baseline lipids in FOURIER to investigate potential mechanisms explaining the reduction in VTE with evolocumab. Last, an exploratory genetic analysis was performed in FOURIER to determine whether a VTE polygenic risk score could identify high-risk patients who would derive the greatest VTE reduction from evolocumab. RESULTS: In FOURIER, the hazard ratio (HR) for VTE with evolocumab was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.50-1.00; P=0.05), with no effect in the 1st year (HR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.57-1.62]) but a 46% reduction (HR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.33-0.88]; P=0.014) beyond 1 year. A meta-analysis of FOURIER and ODYSSEY OUTCOMES demonstrated a 31% relative risk reduction in VTE with PCSK9 inhibition (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.53-0.90]; P=0.007). There was no relation between baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and magnitude of VTE risk reduction. In contrast, in patients with higher baseline lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) levels, evolocumab reduced Lp(a) by 33 nmol/L and risk of VTE by 48% (HR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.30-0.89]; P=0.017), whereas, in patients with lower baseline Lp(a) levels, evolocumab reduced Lp(a) by only 7 nmol/L and had no effect on VTE risk (Pinteraction 0.087 for HR; Pheterogeneity 0.037 for absolute risk reduction). Modeled as a continuous variable, there was a significant interaction between baseline Lp(a) concentration and magnitude of VTE risk reduction (Pinteraction=0.04). A polygenic risk score identified patients who were at >2-fold increased risk for VTE and who derived greater relative (Pinteraction=0.04) and absolute VTE reduction (Pheterogeneity=0.009) in comparison with those without high genetic risk. CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9 inhibition significantly reduces the risk of VTE. Lp(a) reduction may be an important mediator of this effect, a finding of particular interest given the ongoing development of potent Lp(a) inhibitors.

Metformin Use and Clinical Outcomes Among Patients With Diabetes Mellitus With or Without Heart Failure or Kidney Dysfunction: Observations From the SAVOR-TIMI 53 Trial.

BACKGROUND: Metformin is first-line therapy for type 2 diabetes mellitus, although its effects on the cardiovascular system are unproved. METHODS: In this post hoc analysis, patients in SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus) with baseline biomarker samples (n=12 156) were classified as ever versus never taking metformin during the trial period. Associations between metformin exposure and outcomes were estimated with inverse probability of treatment weighting Cox modeling for the composite end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke, as well as cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality, with biomarkers included as covariates. Additional sensitivity analyses included propensity score matching and Cox multivariable models. RESULTS: Of the 12 156 patients with baseline biomarker samples, 8971 (74%) had metformin exposure, 1611 (13%) had prior heart failure, and 1332 (11%) had at least moderate chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤45 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2). Metformin use was associated with no difference in risk for the composite end point (hazard ratio for inverse probability of treatment weighting, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.76-1.11]) but lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for inverse probability of treatment weighting, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.59-0.95]). There was no significant relationship between metformin use and these end points in patients with prior heart failure or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of 12 156 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk, metformin use was associated with lower rates of all-cause mortality, including after adjustment for clinical variables and biomarkers, but not lower rates of the composite end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke. This association was most apparent in patients without prior heart failure or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01107886.

Heart Failure Risk Stratification and Efficacy of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at increased risk of developing heart failure. Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors reduce the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) in patients with T2DM. We aimed to develop and validate a practical clinical risk score for HHF in patients with T2DM and assess whether this score can identify high-risk patients with T2DM who have the greatest reduction in risk for HHF with a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor. METHODS: We developed a clinical risk score for HHF in 8212 patients with T2DM in the placebo arm of SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53). Candidate variables were assessed using multivariable Cox regression, and independent clinical risk indicators achieving statistical significance of P<0.001 were included in the risk score. We externally validated the score in 8578 patients with T2DM in the placebo arm of DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58). The relative and absolute risk reductions in HHF with the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor dapagliflozin were assessed by baseline HHF risk. RESULTS: Five clinical variables were independent risk predictors of HHF: prior heart failure, history of atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. A simple integer-based score (0-7 points) using these predictors identified a >20-fold gradient of HHF risk (P for trend <0.001) in both the derivation and validation cohorts, with C indices of 0.81 and 0.78, respectively. Although relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin were similar for patients across the risk scores (25%-34%), absolute risk reductions were greater in those at higher baseline risk (1-sided P for trend=0.04), with high-risk (2 points) and very-high-risk (≥3 points) patients having 1.5% and 2.7% absolute reductions in Kaplan-Meier estimates of HHF risk at 4 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification using a novel clinical risk score for HHF in patients with T2DM identifies patients at higher risk for HHF who derive greater absolute benefit from sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibition. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT01107886 and NCT01730534.

Cardiovascular biomarkers in patients with acute decompensated heart failure randomized to sacubitril-valsartan or enalapril in the PIONEER-HF trial.

AIMS: Circulating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hsTn) and soluble ST2 (sST2) reflect myocardial stress in patients with heart failure (HF). Production of cyclic guanosine 3'5' monophosphate (cGMP) in response to activation of natriuretic peptide receptors reduces cardiac afterload and preload. We assessed the effects of sacubitril/valsartan on these biomarkers in patients with reduced ejection fraction and acute decompensated HF (ADHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: PIONEER-HF was a randomized, double-blind trial of sacubitril/valsartan vs. enalapril in hospitalized patients with ADHF following haemodynamic stabilization. We measured circulating hsTnT, sST2, and urinary cGMP at baseline, 1, 2 (sST2, cGMP), 4, and 8 weeks (n = 694 with all baseline biomarkers). Ratios of geometric means (timepoint/baseline) were determined and compared as a ratio for sacubitril/valsartan vs. enalapril. Compared with enalapril, sacubitril/valsartan led to a significantly greater decline in hsTnT and sST2. This effect emerged as early as 1 week for sST2 and was significant for both at 4 weeks with a 16% greater reduction in hsTnT (P < 0.001) and 9% greater reduction in sST2 (P = 0.0033). Serial urinary cGMP increased with sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril (P < 0.001, 1 week). The significant differences between treatment groups for each biomarker were sustained at 8 weeks. In an exploratory multivariable-adjusted analysis of cardiovascular death or HF-rehospitalization, the concentrations of hsTnT, sST2 at week 1 were significantly associated with subsequent outcome. CONCLUSION: Biomarkers of myocardial stress are elevated in patients with ADHF and associated with outcome. Compared with enalapril, sacubitril/valsartan reduces myocardial injury and haemodynamic stress as reflected by biomarkers, with an onset that is apparent within 1-4 weeks. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02554890 clinical.trials.gov.

Cardiac and Inflammatory Biomarkers Are Associated with Worsening Renal Outcomes in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Observations from SAVOR-TIMI 53.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac and renal diseases commonly occur with bidirectional interactions. We hypothesized that cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers may assist in identification of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at high risk of worsening renal function. METHODS: In this exploratory analysis from SAVOR-TIMI 53, concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-TnT), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were measured in baseline serum samples of 12310 patients. The primary end point for this analysis was a ≥40% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at end of treatment (EOT) at a median of 2.1 years. The relationships between biomarkers and the end point were modeled using adjusted logistic and Cox regression. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment including baseline renal function, each biomarker was independently associated with an increased risk of ≥40% decrease in eGFR at EOT [Quartile (Q) Q4 vs Q1: hs-TnT adjusted odds ratio (OR), 5.63 (3.49-9.10); NT-proBNP adjusted OR, 3.53 (2.29-5.45); hs-CRP adjusted OR, 1.84 (95% CI, 1.27-2.68); all P values ≤0.001]. Furthermore, each biomarker was independently associated with higher risk of worsening of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) category (all P values ≤0.002). Sensitivity analyses in patients without heart failure and eGFR >60 mL/min provided similar results. In an adjusted multimarker model, hs-TnT and NT-proBNP remained significantly associated with both renal outcomes (all P values <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: hs-TnT, NT-proBNP, and hs-CRP were each associated with worsening of renal function [reduction in eGFR (≥40%) and deterioration in UACR class] in high-risk patients with T2DM. Patients with high cardiac or inflammatory biomarkers should be treated not only for their risk of cardiovascular outcomes but also followed for renal deterioration.

Blood pressure and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes and high cardiovascular risk.

Aims: Optimal blood pressure for prevention of cardiovascular (CV) events in patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains uncertain and there is concern for increased risk with low diastolic blood pressure (DBP). This study analysed the association between blood pressure and CV outcomes in high-risk patients with T2DM. Methods and results: Patients with T2DM and elevated CV risk were enrolled in the Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in patients with diabetes mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53 trial. Cardiovascular outcomes were compared in the biomarker subgroup (n = 12 175) after stratification by baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) and DBP. Adjusted risk was calculated by blood pressure stratum using clinical covariates plus N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin-T (hsTnT). Trends were tested using linear and quadratic models. Adjusted risk of the composite endpoint of CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), or ischaemic stroke showed U-shaped relationships with baseline SBP and DBP (Pquadratic ≤ 0.01) with nadirs at SBP 130-140 or DBP 80-90 mmHg. Diastolic blood pressure <60 mmHg was associated with increased risk of MI (adjusted hazard ratio 2.30; 95% confidence interval 1.50-3.53) relative to DBP 80-90 mmHg. Adjusted odds of hsTnT concentration ≥14 ng/L showed U-shaped relationships with SBP and DBP (Pquadratic ≤ 0.01). The relationships between low DBP, elevated hsTnT, and increased MI remained after exclusion of patients with prior heart failure or NT-proBNP >median, suggesting that the relationship was not due to confounding from diagnosed or undiagnosed heart failure. Conclusions: In patients with diabetes and elevated CV risk, even after extensive adjustment for underlying disease burden, there was a persistent association for low DBP with subclinical myocardial injury and risk of MI.

Efficacy and Safety of Sacubitril/Valsartan in High-Risk Patients in the PIONEER-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: In patients stabilized during hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure (HF), initiation of sacubitril/valsartan compared with enalapril decreased the risk of cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for HF without increasing the risk of adverse events. It is unknown whether potentially high-risk subpopulations have a similar risk-benefit profile. METHODS: PIONEER-HF (Comparison of Sacubitril/Valsartan Versus Enalapril on Effect on NT-proBNP [N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide] in Patients Stabilized From an Acute HF Episode) was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind trial of in-hospital initiation of sacubitril/valsartan (n=440) versus enalapril (n=441) in patients stabilized during hospitalization for acute decompensated HF. The composite of cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for HF was adjudicated. Safety outcomes included worsening renal function, symptomatic hypotension, and hyperkalemia. We evaluated heterogeneity in the effect of sacubitril/valsartan on these efficacy and safety outcomes in selected subgroups of clinical concern: patients with baseline systolic blood pressure ≤118 mm Hg (median; n=448), baseline NT-proBNP >2701 pg/mL (median; n=395), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/minute per 1.73 m2 (n=455), ≥1 additional hospitalization for HF within the prior year (n=343), admission to the ICU during the index hospitalization (n=96), inotrope use during the index hospitalization (n=68), and severe congestion (n=219). RESULTS: The relative risk reduction in cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for HF with sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril was consistent across all high-risk subgroups (P interaction=non-significant [NS] for each). The risks of worsening renal function, symptomatic hypotension, and hyperkalemia with sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril were also consistent in each high- versus low-risk subgroup (P interaction=NS for each). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk subpopulations admitted for acute decompensated HF, treatment with sacubitril/valsartan after initial stabilization conferred a consistent reduction in cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for HF and was well tolerated.

Long-Term Ticagrelor in Patients With Prior Coronary Stenting in the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 Trial.

Background Coronary stent type and risk of stent thrombosis remain important factors affecting recommended duration of dual antiplatelet therapy. We investigated the efficacy and safety of long-term ticagrelor in patients with prior coronary stenting enrolled in the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 54) trial. Methods and Results Patients in PEGASUS-TIMI 54 had a myocardial infarction 1 to 3 year prior and were randomized 1:1:1 to ticagrelor 60 or 90 mg BID or placebo. The primary end point was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (major adverse cardiovascular events). Stent thrombosis was prospectively adjudicated (Academic Research Consortium definition). Baseline characteristics were compared by most recent stent type (bare metal versus drug-eluting stent and first- versus later-generation drug-eluting stent). Treatment arms were compared using Cox proportional hazards models. Of 21 162 patients randomized, 80% (n=16 891) had prior coronary stenting. Following randomization, myocardial infarction was the most frequent ischemic event in patients with prior stenting in the placebo arm, occurring in 5.2% of patients (Type 1: 4.1%), followed by cardiovascular death (2.3%), stroke (1.7%), and stent thrombosis (0.9%). Ticagrelorpooled reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (7.0% versus 8.0%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75-96) regardless of stent type (bare metal stent versus drug-eluting stent: pinteraction=0.767; first versus later generation: pinteraction=0.940). The rate of any stent thrombosis was numerically lower with ticagrelorpooled (0.7% versus 0.9%; HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.50-1.05) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction major bleeding was increased (HR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.90-3.68). Conclusions Long-term ticagrelor reduces major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with prior myocardial infarction and coronary stenting regardless of stent type, with the benefit driven predominantly by reduction in de novo events. Nonfatal major bleeding is increased with ticagrelor. Registration Information clinicaltrials.gov. Identifier: NCT01225562.

Genetic Risk Score to Identify Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Cardiometabolic Disease.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and has a known genetic contribution. We tested the performance of a genetic risk score for its ability to predict VTE in 3 cohorts of patients with cardiometabolic disease. METHODS: We included patients from the FOURIER (Further Cardiovascular Outcomes Research With PCSK9 Inhibition in Patients With Elevated Risk), PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin), and SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus) trials (history of a major atherosclerotic cardiovascular event, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, respectively) who consented for genetic testing and were not on baseline anticoagulation. We calculated a VTE genetic risk score based on 297 single nucleotide polymorphisms with established genome-wide significance. Patients were divided into tertiles of genetic risk. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios for VTE across genetic risk groups. The polygenic risk score was compared with available clinical risk factors (age, obesity, smoking, history of heart failure, and diabetes) and common monogenic mutations. RESULTS: A total of 29 663 patients were included in the analysis with a median follow-up of 2.4 years, of whom 174 had a VTE event. There was a significantly increased gradient of risk across VTE genetic risk tertiles (P-trend <0.0001). After adjustment for clinical risk factors, patients in the intermediate and high genetic risk groups had a 1.88-fold (95% CI, 1.23-2.89; P=0.004) and 2.70-fold (95% CI, 1.81-4.06; P<0.0001) higher risk of VTE compared with patients with low genetic risk. In a continuous model adjusted for clinical risk factors, each standard deviation increase in the genetic risk score was associated with a 47% (95% CI, 29-68) increased risk of VTE (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In a broad spectrum of patients with cardiometabolic disease, a polygenic risk score is a strong, independent predictor of VTE after accounting for available clinical risk factors, identifying 1/3 of patients who have a risk of VTE comparable to that seen with established monogenic thrombophilia.

Efficacy and Safety of Sacubitril/Valsartan by Dose Level Achieved in the PIONEER-HF Trial.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate the efficacy and safety of sacubitril/valsartan according to dose level achieved in the PIONEER-HF (Comparison of Sacubitril/Valsartan Versus Enalapril on Effect on NT-proBNP in Patients Stabilized From an Acute Heart Failure Episode) trial. BACKGROUND: In patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), in-hospital initiation and continuation of sacubitril/valsartan as compared with enalapril is well tolerated, achieves a greater reduction in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and reduces the risk of cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for HF through 8 weeks. However, not all patients achieve the target dose of sacubitril/valsartan, and its efficacy and safety in such patients are of interest. METHODS: PIONEER-HF was a randomized, double-blind, active-controlled trial of sacubitril/valsartan versus enalapril in 881 patients stabilized during hospitalization for ADHF. Blinded study medication was administered for 8 weeks, with initial dosing selected based on the systolic blood pressure at randomization and titrated toward a target of sacubitril/valsartan 97/103 mg twice daily, or enalapril 10 mg twice daily, with an algorithm based on systolic blood pressure and the investigator's assessment of tolerability. RESULTS: At 4 weeks, 199 (55%) patients allocated to sacubitril/valsartan and 211 (60%) patients allocated to enalapril were dispensed the target dose. Baseline characteristics were similar in the 2 treatment groups within each dose level. There was no heterogeneity across dose levels in the effect of sacubitril/valsartan on the reduction in NT-proBNP (pinteraction = 0.69), the reduction in cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for heart failure (pinteraction = 0.42), or the pre-specified adverse events of special interest through 8 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: In hemodynamically stabilized patients with ADHF, the efficacy and safety of sacubitril/valsartan are generally consistent across dose levels. (Comparison of Sacubitril/Valsartan Versus Enalapril on Effect on NT-proBNP in Patients Stabilized From an Acute Heart Failure Episode [PIONEER-HF]; NCT02554890).

Gut Microbiota-Dependent Trimethylamine N-oxide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Prior Myocardial Infarction: A Nested Case Control Study From the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 Trial.

Background Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) may have prothrombotic properties. We examined the association of TMAO quartiles with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and the effect of TMAO on the efficacy of ticagrelor. Methods and Results PEGASUS-TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin - Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 54) randomized patients with prior myocardial infarction to ticagrelor or placebo (median follow-up 33 months). Baseline plasma concentrations of TMAO were measured in a nested case-control study of 597 cases with cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (MACE) and 1206 controls matched for age, sex, and estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]. Odds ratios (OR) were used for the association between TMAO quartiles and MACE, adjusting for baseline clinical characteristics (age, sex, eGFR, region, body mass index, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking, peripheral artery disease, index event, aspirin dosage and treatment arm), and cardiovascular biomarkers (hs-TnT [high-sensitivity troponin T], hs-CRP [high-sensitivity C-reactive protein], NT-proBNP [N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide]). Higher TMAO quartiles were associated with risk of MACE (OR for quartile 4 versus quartile 1, 1.43, 95% CI, 1.06-1.93, P trend=0.015). The association was driven by cardiovascular death (OR 2.25, 95% CI, 1.28-3.96, P trend=0.003) and stroke (OR 2.68, 95% CI, 1.39-5.17, P trend<0.001). After adjustment for clinical factors, the association persisted for cardiovascular death (ORadj 1.89, 95% CI, 1.03-3.45, P trend=0.027) and stroke (ORadj 2.01, 95% CI, 1.01-4.01, P trend=0.022), but was slightly attenuated after adjustment for cardiovascular biomarkers (cardiovascular death: ORadj 1.74, 95% CI, 0.88-3.45, P trend=0.079; and stroke: ORadj 1.82, 95% CI, 0.88-3.78, P trend=0.056). The reduction in MACE with ticagrelor was consistent across TMAO quartiles (P interaction=0.92). Conclusions Among patients with prior myocardial infarction, higher TMAO levels were associated with cardiovascular death and stroke but not with recurrent myocardial infarction. The efficacy of ticagrelor was consistent regardless of TMAO levels. Registration URL: https://www.clini​caltr​ials.gov; Unique identifiers: PEGASUS-TIMI 54, NCT01225562.

Caffeinated Beverage Intake, Dyspnea With Ticagrelor, and Cardiovascular Outcomes: Insights From the PEGASUS-TIMI 54 Trial.

Background A proposed cause of dyspnea induced by ticagrelor is an increase in adenosine blood levels. Because caffeine is an adenosine antagonist, it can potentially improve drug tolerability with regard to dyspnea. Furthermore, association between caffeine and cardiovascular events is of clinical interest. Methods and Results This prespecified analysis used data from the PEGASUS TIMI 54 (Prevention of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Prior Heart Attack Using Ticagrelor Compared to Placebo on a Background of Aspirin-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 54) trial, which randomized 21 162 patients with prior myocardial infarction to ticagrelor 60 mg or 90 mg or matching placebo (twice daily). Baseline caffeine intake in cups per week was prospectively collected for 9694 patients. Outcomes of interest included dyspnea, major adverse cardiovascular events (ie, the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke), and arrhythmias. Dyspnea analyses considered the pooled ticagrelor group, whereas cardiovascular outcome analyses included patients from the 3 randomized arms. After adjustment, caffeine intake, compared with no intake, was not associated with lower rates of dyspnea in patients taking ticagrelor (adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 0.91; 95% CI, 0.76-1.10; P=0.34). There was no excess risk with caffeine for major adverse cardiovascular events (adjusted HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.63-0.98; P=0.031), sudden cardiac death (adjusted HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.57-1.70; P=0.95), or atrial fibrillation (adjusted odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.56-2.04; P=0.84). Conclusions In patients taking ticagrelor for secondary prevention after myocardial infarction, caffeine intake at baseline was not associated with lower rates of dyspnea compared with no intake. Otherwise, caffeine appeared to be safe in this population, with no apparent increase in atherothrombotic events or clinically significant arrhythmias. Registration URL: https://www.clini​caltr​ials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01225562.

A Sexual Partnership Duration: Characterizing Sampling Conditions That Permit unbiased Estimation of Survivorship and Effect on It of Covariates.

Partnership duration data are commonly obtained through surveys that collect information on relationships that are ongoing during a fixed time window. This sampling mechanism leads to duration data that are left truncated and right censored; such data have been analysed using the standard truncation product limit estimator (TPLE). In this paper, we describe a common sampling scheme for collecting sexual partnership data, discuss a key assumption required for the TPLE to be unbiased, and provide the conditions under which the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of the relationship duration distribution is unique and consistent. We also investigate the conditions required for the consistency of the regression coefcient from a Cox proportional hazards model that apply even when the distribution of duration is not completely identifiable due to restrictions on the support of the truncation distribution. Lastly, we will provide some illustrative examples on estimating distribution of most recent partnerships and present spline regression results based on partnership data collected from sexual behavior survey in Mochudi, Botswana.

Risk Assessment in Patients With Diabetes With the TIMI Risk Score for Atherothrombotic Disease.

OBJECTIVE: Improved risk assessment for patients with type 2 diabetes and elevated cardiovascular (CV) risk is needed. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) predicts a gradient of risk in patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI) but has not been evaluated in patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: CV event rates were compared by baseline TRS 2°P in 16,488 patients enrolled in SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53) with type 2 diabetes and high CV risk or established CV disease. Calibration was tested in the diabetes cohort from the REACH (REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) Registry. RESULTS: TRS 2°P revealed a robust risk gradient for the composite of CV death, MI, and ischemic stroke in the full trial population, with 2-year event rates of 0.9% in the lowest- and 19.8% in the highest-risk groups (Ptrend < 0.001). A clear risk gradient was present within the subgroups of all coronary artery disease (CAD), CAD without prior MI, CAD with prior MI, peripheral artery disease, and prior stroke (Ptrend < 0.001 for each), with consistent risk relationships across subgroups. The C-statistic (0.71 for CV death and 0.66 for the composite end point) was consistent in each subgroup. There was close calibration with the type 2 diabetes cohort from the REACH Registry (goodness-of-fit P = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: The expanded TRS 2°P provides a practical and well-calibrated risk prediction tool for patients with type 2 diabetes.

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

BACKGROUND: The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered. METHODS: To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2) in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models. RESULTS: The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic. DISCUSSION: By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

Bone mineral density in children and adolescents with perinatal HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate prevalence of low bone mineral density (BMD) in perinatally HIV-infected (HIV+) and HIV-exposed but uninfected (HEU) children, and to determine predictors of BMD in HIV+. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis within a 15-site United States and Puerto Rico cohort study. METHODS: Total body and lumbar spine BMD were measured using dual energy-X-ray absorptiometry. BMD Z-scores accounted for bone age and sex. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate differences in Z-scores by HIV status and for predictors of BMD in HIV+. RESULTS: 350 HIV+ and 160 HEU were enrolled. Mean age was 12.6 and 10.7 years for HIV+ and HEU, respectively. Most (87%) HIV+ were receiving HAART. More HIV+ than HEU had total body and lumbar spine Z-scores less than -2.0 (total body: 7 vs. 1%, P = 0.008; lumbar spine: 4 vs. 1%, P = 0.08). Average differences in Z-scores between HIV+ and HEU were attenuated after height and/or weight adjustment. Among HIV+, total body Z-scores were lower in those with higher CD4% and in those who ever used boosted protease inhibitors or lamivudine. Lumbar spine Z-scores were lower with higher peak viral load and CD4%, more years on HAART, and ever use of indinavir. CONCLUSION: Rates of low BMD in HIV+ children were greater than expected based on normal population distributions. These differences were partially explained by delays in growth. As most HIV+ children in this study had not entered their pubertal growth spurt, prepubertal factors associated with BMD, magnified or carried forward, may result in sub-optimal peak BMD in adulthood.

Risk factors for failed staged palliation after bidirectional Glenn in infants who have undergone stage one palliation.

OBJECTIVE: The bidirectional Glenn procedure (BDG) is a routine intermediary step in single-ventricle palliation. In this study, we examined risk factors for death or transplant and failure to reach Fontan completion after BDG in patients, who had previously undergone stage one palliation (S1P). METHODS: All patients at our institution, who underwent BDG following S1P between 2002 and 2009 (n=194), were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Transplant-free survival through 18 months post BDG was 91%. Univariable competing risk analyses showed atrioventricular valve regurgitation (AVVR) >mild, age ≤ 3 months at BDG, ventricular dysfunction >mild, and prolonged hospital stay after S1P to be associated with increased risk of death or orthotopic heart transplant. Multivariable competing risk analysis through 5 years of follow-up showed >mild AVVR (hazard ratio (HR) 7.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.0-18.8), prolonged hospitalization after S1P (HR 4.5, 95% CI 1.8-11.5), and age ≤ 3 months at BDG (HR 6.8, 95% CI 2.3-20.0) to be independent risk factors for death or transplant. Concomitantly, > mild AVVR and age ≤ 3 months were independently associated with an overall decreased rate of Fontan completion. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-BDG AVVR, age ≤ 3 months at time of BDG, and prolonged hospitalization after S1P are independently associated with decreased successful progression of staged palliation in midterm follow-up after BDG.