Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January-August 2020.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). METHODS: Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. RESULTS: As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18-185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112-1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

Care pathways at end-of-life for cancer decedents: registry based analyses of the living situation, healthcare utilization and costs for all cancer decedents in Norway in 2009-2013 during their last 6 months of life.

BACKGROUND: Research on end-of-life care is often fragmented, focusing on one level of healthcare or on a particular patient subgroup. Our aim was to describe the complete care pathways of all cancer decedents in Norway during the last six months of life. METHODS: We used six national registries linked at patient level and including all cancer decedents in Norway between 2009-2013 to describe patient use of secondary, primary-, and home- and community-based care. We described patient's car pathway, including patients living situation, healthcare utilization, and costs. We then estimated how cancer type, individual and sociodemographic characteristics, and access to informal care influenced the care pathways. Regression models were used depending on the outcome, i.e., negative binomial (for healthcare utilization) and generalized linear models (for healthcare costs). RESULTS: In total, 52,926 patients were included who died of lung (16%), colorectal (12%), prostate (9%), breast (6%), cervical (1%) or other (56%) cancers. On average, patients spent 123 days at home, 24 days in hospital, 16 days in short-term care and 24 days in long-term care during their last 6 months of life. Healthcare utilization increased towards end-of-life. Total costs were high (on average, NOK 379,801). 60% of the total costs were in the secondary care setting, 3% in the primary care setting, and 37% in the home- and community-based care setting. Age (total cost-range NOK 361,363-418,618) and marital status (total cost-range NOK354,100-411,047) were stronger determining factors of care pathway than cancer type (total cost-range NOK341,318- 392,655). When patients died of cancer types requiring higher amounts of secondary care (e.g., cervical cancer), there was a corresponding lower utilization of primary, and home- and community-based care, and vice versa. CONCLUSION: Cancer patient's care pathways at end-of-life are more strongly associated with age and access to informal care than underlying type of cancer. More care in one care setting (e.g., the secondary care) is associated with less care in other settings (primary- and home- and community based care setting) as demonstrated by the substitution between the different levels of care in this study. Care at end-of-life should therefore not be evaluated in one healthcare level alone since this might bias results and lead to suboptimal priorities.

Does rehabilitation setting influence risk of institutionalization? A register-based study of hip fracture patients in Oslo, Norway.

BACKGROUND: Reducing the economic impact of hip fractures (HF) is a global issue. Some efforts aimed at curtailing costs associated with HF include rehabilitating patients within primary care. Little, however, is known about how different rehabilitation settings within primary care influence patients' subsequent risk of institutionalization for long-term care (LTC). This study examines the association between rehabilitation setting (outside an institution versus short-term rehabilitation stay in an institution, both during 30 days post-discharge for HF) and risk of institutionalization in a nursing home (at 6-12 months from the index admission). METHODS: Data were for 612 HF incidents across 611 patients aged 50 years and older, who were hospitalized between 2008 and 2013 in Oslo, Norway, and who lived at home prior to the incidence. We used logistic regression to examine the effect of rehabilitation setting on risk of institutionalization, and adjusted for patients' age, gender, health characteristics, functional level, use of healthcare services, and socioeconomic characteristics. The models also included fixed-effects for Oslo's boroughs to control for supply-side and unobserved effects. RESULTS: The sample of HF patients had a mean age of 82.4 years, and 78.9 % were women. Within 30 days after hospital discharge, 49.0 % of patients received rehabilitation outside an institution, while the remaining 51.0 % received a short-term rehabilitation stay in an institution. Receiving rehabilitation outside an institution was associated with a 58 % lower odds (OR = 0.42, 95 % CI = 0.23-0.76) of living in a nursing home at 6-12 months after the index admission. The patients who were admitted to a nursing home for LTC were older, more dependent on help with their memory, and had a substantially greater increase in the use of municipal healthcare services after the HF. CONCLUSIONS: The setting in which HF patients receive rehabilitation is associated with their likelihood of institutionalization. In the current study, patients who received rehabilitation outside of an institution were less likely to be admitted to a nursing home for LTC, compared to those who received a short-term rehabilitation stay in an institution. These results suggest that providing rehabilitation at home may be favorable in terms of reducing risk of institutionalization for HF patients.

Addressing safety risks in integrated care programs for older people living at home: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Many older people live at home, often with complex and chronic health and social care needs. Integrated care programs are increasingly being implemented as a way to better address these needs. To support older people living at home, it is also essential to maintain their safety. Integrated care programs have the potential to address a wide range of risks and problems that could undermine older people's ability to live independently at home. The aim of this scoping review is to provide insight into how integrated care programs address safety risks faced by older people living at home - an area that is rather underexplored. METHODS: Safety was conceptualised as preventing or reducing the risk of problems, associated with individual functioning and behaviour, social and physical environments, and health and social care management, which could undermine older people's ability to live independently at home. For this scoping review a systematic literature search was performed to identify papers describing integrated care programs where at least one intervention component addressed safety risks. Data were extracted on the programs' characteristics, safety risks addressed, and the activities and interventions used to address them. RESULTS: None of the 11 programs included in this review explicitly mentioned safety in their goals. Nevertheless, following the principles of our conceptual framework, the programs appeared to address risks in multiple domains. Most attention was paid to risks related to older people's functioning, behaviour, and the health and social care they receive. Risks related to people's physical and social environments received less attention. CONCLUSION: Even though prevention of safety risks is not an explicit goal of integrated care programs, the programs address a wide range of risks on multiple domains. The need to address social and environmental risks is becoming increasingly important given the growing number of people receiving care and support at home. Prioritising a multidimensional approach to safety in integrated care programs could enhance the ability of health and social care systems to support older people to live safely at home.

A performance comparison of patient pathways in Nordic capital areas - a pilot study for ischaemic stroke patients.

Aims: This article describes and discusses the extension of performance measurement using an episode-based approach so that the measurement includes primary care, and social and long-term-care services. By using data on incident stroke patients from the capital areas of four Nordic countries, this pilot study: (a) extended the disease-based performance analysis to include new indicators that better describe patient care pathways at different levels of care; (b) described and compared the performance of care given in the four areas; (c) evaluated how additional information changed the rankings of performance between the areas; and (d) described the trends in performance in the capital areas. Methods: The construction of data was based on a common protocol that used routinely collected national registers and statistics linked with local municipal registers. We created new variables describing the timing of discharge to home and institutionalisation, as well as describing the use and cost of primary and social hospital services. Risk adjustment was performed with four different sets of confounders. Results: Differences existed in various performance indicators between the four metropolitan areas. The ranking was sensitive to the risk-adjustment method. The study showed that for stroke patients a performance comparison with data that are only from secondary and tertiary care, and without a valid severity measure, is not sufficient for international comparisons. Conclusions: Extending and deepening international performance analysis in order to cover patient pathways, including primary care and social services, is very useful for benchmarking activities when focusing on diseases affecting older people.

Planning future care services: Analyses of investments in Norwegian municipalities.

AIMS: To analyse whether the Norwegian Central Government's goal of subsidizing 12,000 places in nursing homes or sheltered housing using an earmarked grant was reached and to determine towards which group of users the planned investments were targeted. METHODS: Data from the investment plans at municipal level were provided by the Norwegian Housing Bank and linked to variables describing the municipalities' financial situation as well as variables describing the local needs for services provided by Statistics Norway. Using regression analyses we estimated the associations between municipal characteristics and planned investments in total and by type of care place. RESULTS: The Norwegian Central Government reached its goal of giving subsidies to 12,000 new or rebuilt places in nursing homes and sheltered housing. A total of 54% of the subsidies (6878 places) were given to places in nursing homes. About 7500 places were available by the end of the planning period and the rest were under construction. About 50% of the places were planned for user groups aged <67 years and 23% of the places for users aged <25 years. One-third of the places were planned for users with intellectual disabilities. Investments in nursing homes were correlated with the share of the population older than 80 years and investments in sheltered houses were correlated with the share of users with intellectual disabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Earmarked grants to municipalities can be adequate measures to affect local resource allocation and thereby stimulate investments in future care. With the current institutional setup the municipalities adapt investments to local needs.

The health policy pendulum: Cost control vs activity growth.

BACKGROUND: Cost containment is a major policy challenge and one of the key drivers of health care reform. In this article, we focus on the role cost control has played as a reform driver in the Norwegian hospital sector between 1980 and 2014. METHODS: We use data on aggregate expenditure as well as on activity changes from year to year. We also use qualitative data for illustrative purposes. RESULTS: We identify 4 phases in the period 1980 to 2014: two where activity increases have dominated the agenda and 2 where cost control has been emphasized. The desire to either increase activity or improve cost control has been important reform drivers. CONCLUSION: Cost control has been a major reform motivator in the period, and some of the policies aimed towards achieving cost control have been successful. But as cost control is achieved, waiting lists and popular dissatisfaction increase and new policies are implemented to increase activity.

Risk adjustment in measurements of predicted mortality after myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, the government introduced elements of quality-based funding (pay-for-performance) for the hospital sector. Survival is included as a quality indicator. If such quality indicators are to be used for funding purposes, it must be established that the observed variations are caused by conditions that the hospital trusts are able to influence, and not by any underlying variables. The objective of this study was to investigate how the predicted mortality after myocardial infarction was influenced by various forms of risk adjustment. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Data from the Norwegian Patient Register on 10,717 patients who had been discharged with the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in 2009 were linked to data on socioeconomic status, comorbidity, travel distances and mortality. The predicted 30-day mortality after myocardial infarction was analysed at the hospital-trust level, using three different models for risk adjustment. RESULTS: Unadjusted 30-day mortality was highest in the catchment area of Førde Hospital Trust (12.5%) and lowest in Asker og Bærum (5.2%). Risk adjustment changed the estimates of mortality for many of the hospital trusts. In the model involving the most comprehensive risk adjustment, mortality was highest in the catchment area of Akershus University Hospital (10.9%) and lowest in the catchment areas of Sunnmøre Hospital Trust (5.2%) and Nordmøre og Romsdal Hospital Trust (5.2%). INTERPRETATION: The variation in treatment quality between the hospital trusts, as measured by predicted mortality after myocardial infarction, is influenced by the methods used for risk adjustment. If the quality-based funding scheme is to continue, well-documented models for risk adjustment of the quality indicators need to be established.

Acute Myocardial Infarction, Use of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention, and Mortality: A Comparative Effectiveness Analysis Covering Seven European Countries.

Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) on acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients have increased substantially in the last 12-15 years because of its clinical effectiveness. The expansion of PCI treatment for AMI patients raises two questions: How did PCI utilization rates vary across European regions, and which healthcare system and regional characteristic variables correlated with the utilization rate? Were the differences in use of PCI associated with differences in outcome, operationalized as 30-day mortality? We obtained our results from a dataset based on the administrative information systems of the populations of seven European countries. PCI rates were highest in the Netherlands, followed by Sweden and Hungary. The probability of receiving PCI was highest in regions with their own PCI facilities and in healthcare systems with activity-based reimbursement systems. Thirty-day mortality rates differed considerably between the countries with the highest rates in Hungary, Scotland, and Finland. Mortality was lowest in Sweden and Norway. The associations between PCI and mortality were remarkable in all age groups and across most countries. Despite extensive risk adjustment, we interpret the associations both as effects of selection and treatments. We observed a lower effect of PCI in the higher age groups in Hungary.

Socio-economic Inequality in the Use of Procedures and Mortality Among AMI Patients: Quantifying the Effects Along Different Paths.

It is not known whether inequality in access to cardiac procedures translates into inequality in mortality. In this paper, we use a path analysis model to quantify both the direct effect of socio-economic status on mortality and the indirect effect of socio-economic status on mortality as mediated by the provision of cardiac procedures. The study links microdata from the Finnish and Norwegian national patient registers describing treatment episodes with data from prescription registers, causes-of-death registers and registers covering education and income. We show that socio-economic variables affect access to percutaneous coronary intervention in both countries, but that these effects are only moderate and that the indirect effects of the socio-economic factors on mortality through access to percutaneous coronary intervention are minor. The direct effects of income and education on mortality are significantly larger. We conclude that the socio-economic gradient in the use of percutaneous coronary intervention adds to socio-economic differences in mortality to little or no extent.

Physicians' engagement in dual practices and the effects on labor supply in public hospitals: results from a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Physician dual practice, a combination of public and private practice, has attracted attention due to fear of reduced work supply and a lack of key personnel in the public system, increase in low priority treatments, and conflicts of interest for physicians who may be competing for their own patients when working for private suppliers. In this article, we analyze both choice of dual practice among hospital physicians and the dual practices' effect on work supply in public hospitals. METHODS: The sample consisted of 12,399 Norwegian hospital physicians working in public hospitals between 2001 and 2009. We linked hospital registry data on salaries and hospital working hours with data from national income and other registries covering non-hospital income, including income from dual work, cohabiting status, childbirths and socioeconomic characteristics. Our dataset also included hospital variables describing i.e. workload. We estimated odds ratio for choosing dual practice and the effects of dual practice on public working hours using different versions of mixed models. RESULTS: The percentage of physicians engaged in dual practice fell from 35.1% for men and 17.6% for women in 2001 to 25.0% and 14.2%, respectively, in 2009. For both genders, financial debt and interest payments were positively correlated and having a newborn baby was negatively correlated with engaging in dual practice. Larger family size and being cohabitating increased the odds ratio of dual practice among men but reduced it for women. The most significant internal hospital factor for choosing dual practice was high wages for extended working hours, which significantly reduced the odds ratio for dual practice. The total working hours in public hospitals were similar for both those who did and did not engage in dual practice; however, dual practice reduced public working hours in some specialties. CONCLUSION: Economic factors followed by family variables are significant elements influencing dual practice. Although our findings indicate that engagement in dual practice by public hospital physicians in a well-regulated market may increase the total labor supply, this may vary significantly between medical specialties.

Exploring End-of-Life Care for Patients with Breast Cancer, Dementia or Heart Failure: A Register-Based Study of Individual and Institutional Factors.

OBJECTIVE: To examine variations in end-of-life care for breast cancer, heart failure, and dementia patients. DATA AND METHODS: Data from four Norwegian health registries were linked using a personal identification number. Longitudinal trends over 365 days and the type of care on the final day of life were analyzed using descriptive techniques and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Patients with dementia were more commonly placed in nursing homes than patients in the two other groups, while patients with heart failure and breast cancer were more frequently hospitalized than the dementia patients. Breast cancer and heart failure patients had a higher likelihood of dying at home than dementia patients. The higher the number of general practitioners, the higher was the probability of home-based end-of-life care for cancer patients, while an increasing non-physician healthcare workers increased the likelihood of home-based care for the other patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnoses, individual characteristics, and service availability are all associated with the place of death in end-of-life care. The higher the availability of health care services, the higher also is the probability of ending the life at home.

Place of living at end-of-life according to cause of death: a comparative analysis of all decedents 70 years or older in 2009-2013 in Finland and Norway.

BACKGROUND: Time at home at end-of-life is perceived as valuable to individuals. Increasing home care is therefore often a political goal. Yet, little is known about where individuals live towards their end-of-life. Our aim was to describe where individuals reside their last 6 months of life in Finland and Norway, and how this differed by cause of death, sex, age, marital status, and income. METHODS: We used individual-leveled national registry data on all decedents aged >70 years in 2009-2013 to describe the number of days individuals spent at home, in hospital, in long-term care (LTC) and short-term care (STC) facilities. We described the place of residence for all and by causes of death: cancer, diseases of the circulatory system, disease in the respiratory system, and mental and behavioral disorders (primarily dementia). We analyzed how age, marital status (indicating informal care), and income associated with place of residence. Analyses were stratified by sex and country. RESULTS: During the last 6 months of life, decedents in Finland (n=186,017) and Norway (n=159,756) spent similar amounts of days in hospital (8 and 11 days) and in STC facilities (15 and 13 days). Finnish decedents spent more days at home (96 vs. 84 days) and fewer days in LTC facilities (64 vs. 80 days). Living arrangement differed similarly by cause of death in the two countries, e.g., decedents from cancer and mental and behavioral disorders spent 123 [113] vs. 29 [21] days at home in Finland (Norway). In both countries, for all causes of death, lower age and marital status were associated with more days at home, for both males and females. While those with higher income spent more days at home in Norway, the opposite was found in Finland. CONCLUSIONS: Older individual's living arrangements in the last 6 months of life were similar in Finland and Norway but differed by cause of death. Younger individuals and those with access to informal care spent more days at home, compared to their counterparts. With aging populations, more individuals will likely need LTC at their end of life. Policies should align with these needs when developing future health care services.

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project.

INTRODUCTION: To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age. METHODS: Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models. RESULTS: Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.

The role of young users in determining long-term care expenditure in Norway.

AIMS: In Norway, it is the responsibility of the country's 429 municipalities to provide long term care (LTC) services to their residents. Recent years have seen a sharp rise in the number of LTC users under the age of 65. This article aims to explore the effect of this rise on LTC expenditure. METHODS: Panel data models are used on data from municipalities from 1986 to 2011. An instrumental variable approach is also utilized to account for possible endogeneity related to the number of young users. RESULTS: The number of young users appears to have a strong effect on LTC expenditure. There is also evidence of municipalities exercising discretion in defining eligibility criteria for young users in order to limit expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The rise in the number of young LTC users presents a long-term challenge to the sustainability of LTC financing. The current budgeting system appears to compensate municipalities for expenditure on young LTC users.

The effect of activity-based financing on hospital length of stay for elderly patients suffering from heart diseases in Norway.

BACKGROUND: Whether activity-based financing of hospitals creates incentives to treat more patients and to reduce the length of each hospital stay is an empirical question that needs investigation. This paper examines how the level of the activity-based component in the financing system of Norwegian hospitals influences the average length of hospital stays for elderly patients suffering from ischemic heart diseases. During the study period, the activity-based component changed several times due to political decisions at the national level. METHODS: The repeated cross-section data were extracted from the Norwegian Patient Register in the period from 2000 to 2007, and included patients with angina pectoris, congestive heart failure, and myocardial infarction. Data were analysed with a log-linear regression model at the individual level. RESULTS: The results show a significant, negative association between the level of activity-based financing and length of hospital stays for elderly patients who were suffering from ischemic heart diseases. The effect is small, but an increase of 10 percentage points in the activity-based component reduced the average length of each hospital stay by 1.28%. CONCLUSIONS: In a combined financing system such as the one prevailing in Norway, hospitals appear to respond to economic incentives, but the effect of their responses on inpatient cost is relatively meagre. Our results indicate that hospitals still need to discuss guidelines for reducing hospitalisation costs and for increasing hospital activity in terms of number of patients and efficiency.

The Causal Effect of Community Hospitals on General Hospital Admissions. Evaluation of a Natural Experiment Using Register Data.

Background: To reduce overall healthcare costs, several countries have attempted to shift services from specialist to primary care. This was also the main strategy of the Coordination Reform introduced in Norway in 2012. An important part of the reform was the introduction of Municipal Acute Wards (MAWs), a type of community hospital aimed at reducing admissions to general hospitals. The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether the implementation of MAWs had a causal effect on hospital admissions. Methods: Monthly admission rates in total and by age groups for patients admitted with acute or elective conditions at internal medicine or surgical departments were analyzed using panel data regression techniques. We identified causal effects by exploiting the sequential roll out of the MAWs within fixed effect analyses. Our data covered all municipalities from start of 2010 until the end of 2017. Results: The sequential implementation of the MAWs started during the summer of 2012. By the beginning of 2016 close to all municipalities had an operative MAW. The introduction of MAWs significantly reduced acute hospital admissions. The effect was strongest for patients ≥80 years admitted acutely to internal medicine departments. The effects were even stronger if the MAW had a physician on site 24/7 or was located close to a local emergency center. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that this type of intermediate care unit is a viable option to alleviate the burden on hospitals by reducing acute secondary care admission volumes.

Stayin' alive: The introduction of municipal in-patient acute care units was associated with reduced mortality and fewer hospital readmissions.

BACKGROUND: Integrated care is seen as integral in combating the current and projected resource scarcity in the healthcare systems of developed economies. Previous research finds positive effects from implementing intermediate care but there is a lack of research on how this shift towards care integration has affected traditional quality indicators within healthcare, indicators such as mortality rates and hospital readmissions. We seek to contribute to the discourse by studying how the introduction of intermediate care in the form of municipal acute units (MAUs) in Norway has affected age adjusted mortality rates and hospital readmissions. DATA AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study we utilize yearly population-based registry data from 2010 to 2016, analysed with fixed-effects regressions. Data on the implementation, characteristics and localization of the MAUs were gathered by telephone during the implementation period. Data on mortality rates and hospital readmissions were collected from Statistics Norway and the Norwegian patient registry. RESULTS: Our analyses finds that the introduction of MAU was associated with a statistically significant reduction in both aggregated mortality rates and hospital readmission rates. In depth analyses finds that our results are contingent upon the age of the patients treated at the MAUs and the clinical characteristics of the medical units themselves. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that the shift towards intermediate care through the introduction of MAUs has increased performance within the public healthcare sector in Norway. Our findings indicate that the introduction of MAU have had a positive public health impact by lowering the mortality and readmission rates for the oldest population cohort in Norway. Our findings suggests that countries with comparatively similar healthcare systems as Norway could achieve similar benefits from implementing intermediate care in the form of somatic medical institutions in the local communities.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on total, sex- and age-specific all-cause mortality in 20 countries worldwide during 2020: results from the C-MOR project.

BACKGROUND: To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, this study investigates overall, sex- and age-specific excess all-cause mortality in 20 countries, during 2020. METHODS: Total, sex- and age-specific weekly all-cause mortality for 2015-2020 was collected from national vital statistics databases. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 observed mortality against expected mortality, estimated from historical data (2015-2019) accounting for seasonality, long- and short-term trends. Crude and age-standardized rates were analysed for total and sex-specific mortality. RESULTS: Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Israel, Italy, Northern Ireland, Peru, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the USA displayed substantial excess age-standardized mortality of varying duration during 2020, while Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Mauritius, Norway, and Ukraine did not. In sex-specific analyses, excess mortality was higher in males than females, except for Slovenia (higher in females) and Cyprus (similar in both sexes). Lastly, for most countries substantial excess mortality was only detectable (Austria, Cyprus, Israel, and Slovenia) or was higher (Brazil, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Italy, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Peru and the USA) in the oldest age group investigated. Peru demonstrated substantial excess mortality even in the <45 age group. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that excess all-cause mortality during 2020 is context dependent, with specific countries, sex- and age-groups being most affected. As the pandemic continues, tracking excess mortality is important to accurately estimate the true toll of COVID-19, while at the same time investigating the effects of changing contexts, different variants, testing, quarantine, and vaccination strategies.