Probabilistic modeling methods for cell-free DNA methylation based cancer classification.

BACKGROUND: cfMeDIP-seq is a low-cost method for determining the DNA methylation status of cell-free DNA and it has been successfully combined with statistical methods for accurate cancer diagnostics. We investigate the diagnostic classification aspect by applying statistical tests and dimension reduction techniques for feature selection and probabilistic modeling for the cancer type classification, and we also study the effect of sequencing depth. METHODS: We experiment with a variety of statistical methods that use different feature selection and feature extraction methods as well as probabilistic classifiers for diagnostic decision making. We test the (moderated) t-tests and the Fisher's exact test for feature selection, principal component analysis (PCA) as well as iterative supervised PCA (ISPCA) for feature generation, and GLMnet and logistic regression methods with sparsity promoting priors for classification. Probabilistic programming language Stan is used to implement Bayesian inference for the probabilistic models. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We compare overlaps of differentially methylated genomic regions as chosen by different feature selection methods, and evaluate probabilistic classifiers by evaluating the area under the receiver operating characteristic scores on discovery and validation cohorts. While we observe that many methods perform equally well as, and occasionally considerably better than, GLMnet that was originally proposed for cfMeDIP-seq based cancer classification, we also observed that performance of different methods vary across sequencing depths, cancer types and study cohorts. Overall, methods that seem robust and promising include Fisher's exact test and ISPCA for feature selection as well as a simple logistic regression model with the number of hyper and hypo-methylated regions as features.

LuxRep: a technical replicate-aware method for bisulfite sequencing data analysis.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation is commonly measured using bisulfite sequencing (BS-seq). The quality of a BS-seq library is measured by its bisulfite conversion efficiency. Libraries with low conversion rates are typically excluded from analysis resulting in reduced coverage and increased costs. RESULTS: We have developed a probabilistic method and software, LuxRep, that implements a general linear model and simultaneously accounts for technical replicates (libraries from the same biological sample) from different bisulfite-converted DNA libraries. Using simulations and actual DNA methylation data, we show that including technical replicates with low bisulfite conversion rates generates more accurate estimates of methylation levels and differentially methylated sites. Moreover, using variational inference speeds up computation time necessary for whole genome analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In this work we show that taking into account technical replicates (i.e. libraries) of BS-seq data of varying bisulfite conversion rates, with their corresponding experimental parameters, improves methylation level estimation and differential methylation detection.

Umbilical cord blood DNA methylation in children who later develop type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Distinct DNA methylation patterns have recently been observed to precede type 1 diabetes in whole blood collected from young children. Our aim was to determine whether perinatal DNA methylation is associated with later progression to type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Reduced representation bisulphite sequencing (RRBS) analysis was performed on umbilical cord blood samples collected within the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention (DIPP) Study. Children later diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and/or who tested positive for multiple islet autoantibodies (n = 43) were compared with control individuals (n = 79) who remained autoantibody-negative throughout the DIPP follow-up until 15 years of age. Potential confounding factors related to the pregnancy and the mother were included in the analysis. RESULTS: No differences in the umbilical cord blood methylation patterns were observed between the cases and controls at a false discovery rate <0.05. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Based on our results, differences between children who progress to type 1 diabetes and those who remain healthy throughout childhood are not yet present in the perinatal DNA methylome. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that such differences would be found in a larger dataset.

LuxUS: DNA methylation analysis using generalized linear mixed model with spatial correlation.

MOTIVATION: DNA methylation is an important epigenetic modification, which has multiple functions. DNA methylation and its connections to diseases have been extensively studied in recent years. It is known that DNA methylation levels of neighboring cytosines are correlated and that differential DNA methylation typically occurs rather as regions instead of individual cytosine level. RESULTS: We have developed a generalized linear mixed model, LuxUS, that makes use of the correlation between neighboring cytosines to facilitate analysis of differential methylation. LuxUS implements a likelihood model for bisulfite sequencing data that accounts for experimental variation in underlying biochemistry. LuxUS can model both binary and continuous covariates, and mixed model formulation enables including replicate and cytosine random effects. Spatial correlation is included to the model through a cytosine random effect correlation structure. We show with simulation experiments that using the spatial correlation, we gain more power to the statistical testing of differential DNA methylation. Results with real bisulfite sequencing dataset show that LuxUS is able to detect biologically significant differentially methylated cytosines. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The tool is available at https://github.com/hallav/LuxUS. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A comparative study of clinical trial and real-world data in patients with diabetic kidney disease.

A growing body of research is focusing on real-world data (RWD) to supplement or replace randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, due to the disparities in data generation mechanisms, differences are likely and necessitate scrutiny to validate the merging of these datasets. We compared the characteristics of RCT data from 5734 diabetic kidney disease patients with corresponding RWD from electronic health records (EHRs) of 23,523 patients. Demographics, diagnoses, medications, laboratory measurements, and vital signs were analyzed using visualization, statistical comparison, and cluster analysis. RCT and RWD sets exhibited significant differences in prevalence, longitudinality, completeness, and sampling density. The cluster analysis revealed distinct patient subgroups within both RCT and RWD sets, as well as clusters containing patients from both sets. We stress the importance of validation to verify the feasibility of combining RCT and RWD, for instance, in building an external control arm. Our results highlight general differences between RCT and RWD sets, which should be considered during the planning stages of an RCT-RWD study. If they are, RWD has the potential to enrich RCT data by providing first-hand baseline data, filling in missing data or by subgrouping or matching individuals, which calls for advanced methods to mitigate the differences between datasets.

Permutation-based significance analysis reduces the type 1 error rate in bisulphite sequencing data analysis of human umbilical cord blood samples.

DNA methylation patterns are largely established in-utero and might mediate the impacts of in-utero conditions on later health outcomes. Associations between perinatal DNA methylation marks and pregnancy-related variables, such as maternal age and gestational weight gain, have been earlier studied with methylation microarrays, which typically cover less than 2% of human CpG sites. To detect such associations outside these regions, we chose the bisulphite sequencing approach. We collected and curated clinical data on 200 newborn infants; whose umbilical cord blood samples were analysed with the reduced representation bisulphite sequencing (RRBS) method. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fit for each high coverage CpG site, followed by spatial and multiple testing adjustment of P values to identify differentially methylated cytosines (DMCs) and regions (DMRs) associated with clinical variables, such as maternal age, mode of delivery, and birth weight. Type 1 error rate was then evaluated with a permutation analysis. We discovered a strong inflation of spatially adjusted P values through the permutation analysis, which we then applied for empirical type 1 error control. The inflation of P values was caused by a common method for spatial adjustment and DMR detection, implemented in tools comb-p and RADMeth. Based on empirically estimated significance thresholds, very little differential methylation was associated with any of the studied clinical variables, other than sex. With this analysis workflow, the sex-associated differentially methylated regions were highly reproducible across studies, technologies, and statistical models.