Outlier detection methods to improve the quality of citizen science data.

Citizen science involves public participation in research, usually through volunteer observation and reporting. Data collected by citizen scientists are a valuable resource in many fields of research that require long-term observations at large geographic scales. However, such data may be perceived as less accurate than those collected by trained professionals. Here, we analyze the quality of data from a plant phenology network, which tracks biological response to climate change. We apply five algorithms designed to detect outlier observations or inconsistent observers. These methods rely on different quantitative approaches, including residuals of linear models, correlations among observers, deviations from multivariate clusters, and percentile-based outlier removal. We evaluated these methods by comparing the resulting cleaned datasets in terms of time series means, spatial data coverage, and spatial autocorrelations after outlier removal. Spatial autocorrelations were used to determine the efficacy of outlier removal, as they are expected to increase if outliers and inconsistent observations are successfully removed. All data cleaning methods resulted in better Moran's I autocorrelation statistics, with percentile-based outlier removal and the clustering method showing the greatest improvement. Methods based on residual analysis of linear models had the strongest impact on the final bloom time mean estimates, but were among the weakest based on autocorrelation analysis. Removing entire sets of observations from potentially unreliable observers proved least effective. In conclusion, percentile-based outlier removal emerges as a simple and effective method to improve reliability of citizen science phenology observations.

Survey to estimate the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in hospital patients in Germany by systematic HbA1c measurement upon admission.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this survey was to estimate the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in hospitalised patients ≥55 years based on routine HbA1c measurement upon admission, using the diagnosis algorithm according to the German National Diabetes Care Guideline. DESIGN: Non-interventional survey. SETTING: Four German maximum care hospitals. POPULATION: Consecutive patients ≥55 years of age admitted to hospital. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participating hospitals measured HbA1c upon admission and applied the algorithm for diagnosing T2DM per the clinical recommendations of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the German National Diabetes Care Guideline as part of the clinical routine and allocated patients to three diagnostic categories: T2DM, increased risk for T2DM, no T2DM. RESULTS: Between Oct 2014 and May 2015, the survey documented data from 6092 patients; the analyses included 5820 patients fulfilling validity criteria (95.5%). Of these, 1906 (32.7%) had a known history of T2DM. Among the 3914 remaining patients, 2181 had no T2DM (55.8%), 1180 an increased risk for T2DM (30.1%) and 553 unrecognised T2DM (14.1%; 95% CI: 13.1%-15.3%). The overall prevalence of known and unrecognised T2DM was 42.3% (95% CI: 41.0%-43.5%). Patients with previously unrecognised T2DM were admitted to hospital predominantly for cardiac disorders (21.9%), nervous system disorders such as cerebral infarction (15.0%) and infections/infestations (13.4%). CONCLUSIONS: This survey revealed an overall prevalence of known and unrecognised T2DM of more than 40%. Among patients with unrecognised T2DM on admission, the prevalence of T2DM was 14%. These data indicate that systematic documentation of T2DM in in-patients is clinically useful. Hospitals should consider using the diagnostic algorithm and to streamline pathways of care to secure adequate care considering patients' diabetic risk profiles, and to manage related additional costs.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide-ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north.

Choosing drought-tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long-term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.

Glacial refugia and modern genetic diversity of 22 western North American tree species.

North American tree species, subspecies and genetic varieties have primarily evolved in a landscape of extensive continental ice and restricted temperate climate environments. Here, we reconstruct the refugial history of western North American trees since the last glacial maximum using species distribution models, validated against 3571 palaeoecological records. We investigate how modern subspecies structure and genetic diversity corresponds to modelled glacial refugia, based on a meta-analysis of allelic richness and expected heterozygosity for 473 populations of 22 tree species. We find that species with strong genetic differentiation into subspecies had widespread and large glacial refugia, whereas species with restricted refugia show no differentiation among populations and little genetic diversity, despite being common over a wide range of environments today. In addition, a strong relationship between allelic richness and the size of modelled glacial refugia (r(2) = 0.55) suggest that population bottlenecks during glacial periods had a pronounced effect on the presence of rare alleles.

Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management.

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul-de-sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present-to-future velocities) and management of species populations (future-to-present velocities).

Douglas-fir plantations in Europe: a retrospective test of assisted migration to address climate change.

We evaluate genetic test plantations of North American Douglas-fir provenances in Europe to quantify how tree populations respond when subjected to climate regime shifts, and we examined whether bioclimate envelope models developed for North America to guide assisted migration under climate change can retrospectively predict the success of these provenance transfers to Europe. The meta-analysis is based on long-term growth data of 2800 provenances transferred to 120 European test sites. The model was generally well suited to predict the best performing provenances along north-south gradients in Western Europe, but failed to predict superior performance of coastal North American populations under continental climate conditions in Eastern Europe. However, model projections appear appropriate when considering additional information regarding adaptation of Douglas-fir provenances to withstand frost and drought, even though the model partially fails in a validation against growth traits alone. We conclude by applying the partially validated model to climate change scenarios for Europe, demonstrating that climate trends observed over the last three decades warrant changes to current use of Douglas-fir provenances in plantation forestry throughout Western and Central Europe.

Validation of global precipitation time series products against tree ring records and remotely sensed vegetation greenness.

Global interpolated climate products are widely used in ecological research to investigate biosphere-climate interactions and to track ecological response to climate variability and climate change. In turn, biological data could also be used for an independent validation of one aspect of climate data quality. All else being equal, more variance explained in biological data identifies the better climate data product. Here, we compare seven global precipitation time series products, including gauge-based datasets (CRU-TS, UDEL-TS, GPCC), re-analysis products (ERA5, CHELSA), a satellite-based dataset (PERSIANN) and a multi-source product that draws on gauge, re-analysis, and satellite data (MSWEP). We focus on precipitation variables, because they are more difficult to interpolate than temperature, and show larger divergence among gridded data products. Our validation is based on 20 years of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (MODIS-EVI) and 120 years of tree ring records from the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The results for the 20-year EVI based validation shows that all gauge and re-analysis data products performed similarly, but were outperformed by the multi-source MSWEP product, especially in regions with low weather station coverage, such as Africa. For analyzing long 120-year time-series, UDEL-TS showed superior performance prior to the 1940s, with especially large margins for northern Asia and the Himalayas region. For other regions, CRU-TS and GPCC could be recommended. We provide maps that can guide the best regional choice of climate product for research involving time series of biological response to historic climate variability and climate change.

Sixteen years of winter stress: an assessment of cold hardiness, growth performance and survival of hybrid poplar clones at a boreal planting site.

In recent years, thousands of hectares of hybrid poplar plantations have been established in Canada for the purpose of carbon sequestration and wood production. However, boreal planting environments pose special challenges that may compromise the long-term survival and productivity of such plantations. In this study, we evaluated the effect of winter stress, that is, frequent freeze-thaw and extreme cold events, on growth and survival of 47 hybrid poplar clones in a long-term field experiment. We further assessed physiological and structural traits that are potentially important for cold tolerance for a selected set of seven clones. We found that trees with narrow xylem vessels showed reduced freezing-induced embolism and showed superior productivity after 16 growing seasons. With respect to cold hardiness of living tissues, we only observed small differences among clones in early autumn, which were nonetheless significantly correlated to growth. Maximum winter cold hardiness and the timing of leaf senescence and budbreak were not related to growth or survival. In conclusion, our data suggest that reduction of freezing-induced embolism due to small vessel diameters is an essential adaptive trait to ensure long-term productivity of hybrid poplar plantations in boreal planting environments.

Genetic variation of hydraulic and wood anatomical traits in hybrid poplar and trembling aspen.

Intensive forestry systems and breeding programs often include either native aspen or hybrid poplar clones, and performance and trait evaluations are mostly made within these two groups. Here, we assessed how traits with potential adaptive value varied within and across these two plant groups. Variation in nine hydraulic and wood anatomical traits as well as growth were measured in selected aspen and hybrid poplar genotypes grown at a boreal planting site in Alberta, Canada. Variability in these traits was statistically evaluated based on a blocked experimental design. We found that genotypes of trembling aspen were more resistant to cavitation, exhibited more negative water potentials, and were more water-use-efficient than hybrid poplars. Under the boreal field test conditions, which included major regional droughts, height growth was negatively correlated with branch vessel diameter (Dv ) in both aspen and hybrid poplars and differences in Dv were highly conserved in aspen trees from different provenances. Differences between the hybrid poplars and aspen provenances suggest that these two groups employ different water-use strategies. The data also suggest that vessel diameter may be a key trait in evaluating growth performance in a boreal environment.

Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada.

Human-aided movement of species populations in large-scale reforestation programs could be a potent and cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy. Such large-scale management interventions, however, tend to entail the risks of unintended consequences, and we propose that three conditions should be met before implementing assisted migration in reforestation programs: (1) evidence of a climate-related adaptational lag, (2) observed biological impacts, and (3) robust model projections to target assisted migration efforts. In a case study of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michaux.) we use reciprocal transplant experiments to study adaptation of tree populations to local environments. Second, we monitor natural aspen populations using the MODIS enhanced vegetation index as a proxy for forest health and productivity. Last, we report results from bioclimate envelope models that predict suitable habitat for locally adapted genotypes under observed and predicted climate change. The combined results support assisted migration prescriptions and indicate that the risk of inaction likely exceeds the risk associated with changing established management practices. However, uncertainty in model projections also implies that we are restricted to a relatively short 20-year planning horizon for prescribing seed movement in reforestation programs. We believe that this study exemplifies a safe and realistic climate change adaptation strategy based on multiple sources of information and some understanding of the uncertainty associated with recommendations for assisted migration. Ad hoc migration prescriptions without a similar level of supporting information should be avoided in reforestation programs.

Plant phenology networks of citizen scientists: recommendations from two decades of experience in Canada.

Plant phenology networks of citizen scientists have a long history and have recently contributed to our understanding of climate change effects on ecosystems. This paper describes the development of the Alberta and Canada PlantWatch programs, which coordinate networks of citizen scientists who track spring development timing for common plants. Tracking spring phenology is highly suited to volunteers and, with effective volunteer management, observers will stay loyal to a phenology program for many years. Over two decades beginning in 1987, Alberta PlantWatch volunteers reported 47,000 records, the majority contributed by observers who participated for more than 9 years. We present a quantitative analysis of factors that determine the quality of this phenological data and explore sources of variation. Our goal is to help those who wish to initiate new observer networks with an analysis of the effectiveness of program protocols including selected plant species and bloom stages.

Xylem Anomalies as Indicators of Maladaptation to Climate in Forest Trees: Implications for Assisted Migration.

Xylem anomalies that are caused by unusual climate events have long been used to aid cross-dating in tree ring research. Here, we analyzed a range of xylem anomalies in a 39-year-old common garden experiment of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) in central Alberta, Canada, designed to investigate local adaptation. We extracted wood cores from trees representing 24 provenances covering much of the species range across the Canadian boreal forest. Using a double stain and light microscopy analysis, four xylem anomalies and their causes could be distinguished: (1) frost rings indicate issues with synchronizing the onset of growth with the start of the growing season, and were prevalent in young trees; (2) light rings represent thin cell walls caused by an insufficient growing season length, most prevalent in southern sources; (3) blue rings were caused by a failure to complete lignification of new wood due to an early end of the growing season; and (4) double rings represent density fluctuations due to drier than normal summers. Local provenances showed the least amount of xylem anomalies, indicating that they are correctly adapted to the environment in which they occur. In contrast, trees moved to the test site from other climate regions showed various types of xylem anomalies depending on their origin. In particular, populations originating from warmer regions showed an increased presence of latewood anomalies, consistent with a more extensive use of the growing season in the fall. We conclude that xylem anomalies may serve as a sensitive early indicator of maladaptation to climate before populations experience tree dieback or mortality. They may therefore be useful to monitor the health of natural populations, or to evaluate the success of assisted migration in reforestation to address climate change.

Chilling and Forcing From Cut Twigs-How to Simplify Phenological Experiments for Citizen Science.

Low-cost phenological experiments with cut twigs are increasingly used to study bud development in response to spring warming and photoperiod. However, a broader variety of species needs to be tackled and in particular the influence of insufficient winter chilling deserves more attention. Therefore, we investigated if and how chilling requirements can be efficiently investigated by cut twigs and how this low-tech approach could be successfully implemented as a citizen science or school project. We conducted an experiment on bud burst and leaf development of Corylus avellana L. twigs, with natural chilling outdoors on a shrub (S) and another chilling treatment as cut twigs in containers (C), and subsequent forcing indoors. Subsampling of the number of cutting dates and number of twigs was used to infer minimum required sample sizes. Apart from insufficiently chilled twigs, ~80% of the twigs (both S and C) reached leaf out. For multiple definitions of chilling and forcing, a negative exponential relationship was revealed between chilling and amount of forcing needed to reach certain developmental stages. At least 5 out of 15 cutting dates or alternatively half of the 10 twig repetitions, but especially those mirroring low chilling conditions, were needed to describe the chilling-forcing relationship with some degree of robustness. In addition, for cutting dates with long chilling, i.e., from January onwards, freshly cut twigs (S) required significantly more forcing to reach bud burst than twigs from containers (C), although the effect was small. In general, chilling conditions of mature shrubs were well captured by cut twigs, therefore opening the possibility of chilling through refrigeration. We conclude that experimental protocols as outlined here are feasible for citizen scientists, school projects, and science education, and would have the potential to advance the research field if carried out on a large scale. We provide an easy-to-use Shiny simulation app to enable citizen scientists to build up a bud development model based on their own experimental data and then simulate future phenological development with winter and/or spring warming. This may encourage them to further study other aspects of climate change and the impacts of climate change.

Genetic parameters of growth and adaptive traits in aspen (Populus tremuloides): Implications for tree breeding in a warming world.

Aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) is a widespread commercial forest tree of high economic importance in western Canada and has been subject to tree improvement efforts over the past two decades. Such improvement programs rely on accurate estimates of the genetic gain in growth traits and correlated response in adaptive traits that are important for forest health. Here, we estimated genetic parameters in 10 progeny trials containing >30,000 trees with pedigree structures based on a partial factorial mating design that includes 60 half-sibs, 100 full-sib families and 1,400 clonally replicated genotypes. Estimated narrow-sense and broad-sense heritabilities were low for height and diameter (~0.2), but moderate for the dates of budbreak and leaf senescence (~0.4). Furthermore, estimated genetic correlations between growth and phenology were moderate to strong with tall trees being associated with early budbreak (r = -0.3) and late leaf senescence (r = -0.7). Survival was not compromised, but was positively associated with early budbreak or late leaf senescence, indicating that utilizing the growing season was more important for survival and growth than avoiding early fall or late spring frosts. These result suggests that populations are adapted to colder climate conditions and lag behind environmental conditions to which they are optimally adapted due to substantial climate warming observed over the last several decades for the study area.

ClimateEU, scale-free climate normals, historical time series, and future projections for Europe.

Interpolated climate data have become essential for regional or local climate change impact assessments and the development of climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we contribute an accessible, comprehensive database of interpolated climate data for Europe that includes monthly, annual, decadal, and 30-year normal climate data for the last 119 years (1901 to 2019) as well as multi-model CMIP5 climate change projections for the 21st century. The database also includes variables relevant for ecological research and infrastructure planning, comprising more than 20,000 climate grids that can be queried with a provided ClimateEU software package. In addition, 1 km and 2.5 km resolution gridded data generated by the software are available for download. The quality of ClimateEU estimates was evaluated against weather station data for a representative subset of climate variables. Dynamic environmental lapse rate algorithms employed by the software to generate scale-free climate variables for specific locations lead to improvements of 10 to 50% in accuracy compared to gridded data. We conclude with a discussion of applications and limitations of this database.

Publisher Correction: Northern forest tree populations are physiologically maladapted to drought.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

External electric muscle stimulation improves burning sensations and sleeping disturbances in patients with type 2 diabetes and symptomatic neuropathy.

OBJECTIVE: External muscle stimulation (EMS) of the thighs was previously shown to have beneficial effects in a pilot study on painful diabetic neuropathy. However, differential effects on specific symptoms of neuropathy as well as determinants of treatment response have not been described. DESIGN: Ninety-two type 2 diabetes patients with different neuropathic symptoms were included in a prospective uncontrolled trial. Patients were treated twice a week for 4 weeks. Symptoms were graded on numeric scales at baseline, before the second and the eighth visit. RESULTS: Seventy-three percent of the participants reported marked improvement of symptoms. Subjective treatment response was positively and independently associated with symptom intensity but independent of disease extent, metabolic factors, age, or gender. Total symptoms graded by patients on numerical scales decreased significantly after 4 weeks of treatment. Patients in the upper tertile of symptom intensity showed significant improvement of paresthesia, pain, numbness and most pronounced for burning sensations and sleeping disturbances. CONCLUSIONS: In an uncontrolled setting, EMS seems to be an effective treatment for symptomatic neuropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes, especially in patients with strong symptoms.

Atherogenic dyslipidaemia but not total- and high-molecular weight adiponectin are associated with the prognostic outcome in patients with coronary heart disease.

AIMS: Adiponectin is closely related to atherogenic dyslipidaemia and may be a clinical important mediator of recurrent coronary heart disease (CHD). However, studies with emphasis on secondary disease prevention are rare. We report data from a prospective study investigating the prognostic value of adiponectin, its high-molecular weight (HMW) form, and of markers of lipid metabolism in patients after their first acute CHD event. METHODS AND RESULTS: We measured baseline total- and HMW-adiponectin in 1051 patients aged 30-70 years with incident CHD and a prospective follow-up was conducted [median: 56.6 months (interquartile range: 53.2; 57.5)]. During this period, 95 patients (incidence: 22.3/1000 patient years) experienced a secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) event. After adjustment by Cox proportional hazard models, neither total- nor HMW-adiponectin was associated with secondary CVD events. In contrast, LDL-cholesterol and markers of atherogenic dyslipidaemia were independently associated with secondary CVD events (relative risk per unit increase: LDL-cholesterol: 1.54; 95%CI 1.18-2.01; P = 0.001, triglycerides: 1.58; 95%CI 1.31-1.90; P < 0.0001 and HDL-cholesterol: 0.34; 95%CI 0.14-0.79; P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Measurement of total- and HMW-adiponectin may add no significant value to risk stratifications in patients with incident CHD. In contrast, approaching atherogenic dyslipidaemia may represent a promising target in secondary prevention programs for high-risk patients.

Adaptive limitations of white spruce populations to drought imply vulnerability to climate change in its western range.

A cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy for the forestry sector is to move seed sources to more northern and higher elevation planting sites as part of ongoing reforestation programs. This is meant to match locally adapted populations with anticipated environments, but adaptive traits do not always show population differences suitable to mitigate climate change impacts. For white spruce, drought tolerance is a critical adaptive trait to prevent mortality and productivity losses. Here, we use a 40-year-old provenance experiment that has been exposed to severe drought periods in 1999 and 2002 to retrospectively investigate drought response and the adaptive capacity of white spruce populations across their boreal range. Relying on dendrochronological analysis under experimentally controlled environments, we evaluate population differences in resistance, resilience, and recovery to these extreme events. Results showed evidence for population differentiation in resistance and recovery parameters, but provenances conformed to approximately the same growth rates under drought conditions and had similar resilience metrics. The lack of populations with better growth rates under drought conditions is contrary to expectations for a wide-ranging species with distinct regional climates. Populations from the wettest environments in the northeastern boreal were surprisingly drought-tolerant, suggesting that these populations would readily resist water deficits projected for the 2080s, and supporting the view that northeastern Canada will provide a refugium for boreal species under climate change. The findings also suggest that white spruce is sensitive to growth reductions under climate change in the western boreal. The study highlights that population differentiation in adaptive capacity is species- and trait-specific, and we provide a counterexample for drought tolerance traits, where assisted migration prescriptions may be ineffective to mitigate climate change impacts. For resource managers and policy makers, we provide maps where planning for widespread declines of boreal white spruce forests may be unavoidable.