Performance of Prediction Models for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in General Population: A Systematic Review and External Validation Study.

INTRODUCTION: Prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) need to be proven effective in the target population before they can be applied to population-based endoscopic screening to improve cost-effectiveness. We have systematically reviewed ESCC prediction models applicable to the general population and performed external validation and head-to-head comparisons in a large multicenter prospective cohort including 5 high-risk areas of China (Fei Cheng, Lin Zhou, Ci Xian, Yang Zhong, and Yan Ting). METHODS: Models were identified through a systematic review and validated in a large population-based multicenter prospective cohort that included 89,753 participants aged 40-69 years who underwent their first endoscopic examination between April 2017 and March 2021 and were followed up until December 31, 2022. Model performance in external validation was estimated based on discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by C-statistic (concordance statistic), and calibration was assessed by calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The systematic review identified 15 prediction models that predicted severe dysplasia and above lesion (SDA) or ESCC in the general population, of which 11 models (4 SDA and 7 ESCC) were externally validated. The C-statistics ranged from 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.69) to 0.70 (0.68-0.71) of the SDA models, and the highest was achieved by Liu et al (2020) and Liu et al (2022). The C-statistics ranged from 0.51 (0.48-0.54) to 0.74 (0.71-0.77), and Han et al (2023) had the best discrimination of the ESCC models. Most models were well calibrated after recalibration because the calibration plots coincided with the x = y line. DISCUSSION: Several prediction models showed moderate performance in external validation, and the prediction models may be useful in screening for ESCC. Further research is needed on model optimization, generalization, implementation, and health economic evaluation.

Effectiveness of one-time endoscopic screening programme in prevention of upper gastrointestinal cancer in China: a multicentre population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effectiveness of endoscopic screening programme in reducing incidence and mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer in high risks areas of China. DESIGN: This multicentre population-based cohort study was conducted in six areas in China from 2005 to 2015. All permanent residents aged 40 to 69 years were identified as target subjects. We refer to those who were invited for screening collectively as the invited group. Of these, we classify those who were invited and undertook endoscopic screening as the screened group and those who were invited but did not accept screening as the non-screened group. Target subjects who were not invited to the screening were assigned to the control group. The effectiveness of the endoscopic screening and screening programme were evaluated by comparing reductions in incidence and mortality from upper gastrointestinal cancer in the screened and invited group with control group. RESULTS: Our cohort analysis included 637 500 people: 299 483 in the control group and 338 017 in the invited to screening group, 113 340 (33.53%) of whom were screened eventually. Compared with subjects in the control group, upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality decreased by 23% (relative risk (RR)=0.77, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.81) and 57% (RR=0.43, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.47) in the screened group, respectively, and by 14% (RR=0.86, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.89) and 31% (RR=0.69, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.72) in the invited group, respectively. CONCLUSION: Among individuals aged 40 to 69 years in high risk areas of upper gastrointestinal cancer, one-time endoscopic screening programme was associated with a significant decrease in upper gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality.

Surveillance of premalignant gastric cardia lesions: A population-based prospective cohort study in China.

In our study, we aimed to assess the long-term risk of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) for patients with different histological cardia lesions to inform future guidelines for GCA screening in China. We conducted a population-based prospective study among 9740 subjects who underwent upper endoscopy screening during 2005 to 2009 and followed until December 2017. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of GCA were calculated by the baseline histological diagnoses, and the hazard ratios (HRs), overall and by age and sex, were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models. During a median follow-up of 10 years, we identified 123 new GCA cases (1.26%) and 31 GCA deaths (0.32%). The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of GCA were 128.71/100 000 and 35.69/100 000 person-years, and cumulative incidence rate in patients with cardia high-grade dysplasia (CHGD), cardia low-grade dysplasia (CLGD) and atrophic carditis (AC)/cardia intestinal metaplasia (CIM) was 25%, 3.05% and 1.58%, respectively. The progression rate and cancer risk of GCA increased monotonically with each step in Correa's cascade. Individuals aged 50 to 69 years had 4.4 times higher GCA incidence than those aged 40 to 49 years. Patients with CLGD had a significantly higher 3-year GCA incidence than the normal group, while patients with AC/CIM had a comparable GCA risk during 3-year follow-up but a higher risk at 5-year intervals. Our results suggested a postponed starting age of 50 years for GCA screening, immediate treatment for patients with CHGD, a 3-year surveillance interval for patients with CLGD, and a lengthened surveillance interval of 5 years for patients with AC/CIM.

Esophageal Histological Precursor Lesions and Subsequent 8.5-Year Cancer Risk in a Population-Based Prospective Study in China.

INTRODUCTION: Data on the associations between esophageal histological lesions and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in general populations are limited. We aimed to investigate these associations in a large Chinese general population to inform future Chinese ESCC screening guidelines. METHODS: We performed endoscopic screening of 21,111 participants aged 40-69 years from 3 high-risk areas of China in 2005-2009, and followed the cohort through 2016. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of ESCC were calculated by baseline histological diagnosis, and hazard ratios of ESCC, overall and by age and sex, were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We identified 143 new ESCC cases (0.68%) and 62 ESCC deaths (0.29%) during a median follow-up of 8.5 years. Increasing grades of squamous dysplasia were associated with the increasing risk of ESCC incidence and mortality. The cumulative ESCC incidence rates for severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ, moderate dysplasia (MD), and mild dysplasia were 15.5%, 4.5%, and 1.4%, respectively. Older individuals (50-69 years) had 3.1 times higher ESCC incidence than younger individuals (40-49 years), and men had 2.4 times higher ESCC incidence than women. DISCUSSION: This study confirmed that increasing grades of squamous dysplasia are associated with increasing risk of ESCC and that severe dysplasia and carcinoma in situ require clinical treatment. This study suggests that in high-risk areas of China, patients with endoscopically worrisome MD should also receive therapy, the first screening can be postponed to 50 years, and endoscopic surveillance intervals for unremarkable MD and mild dysplasia can be lengthened to 3 and 5 years, respectively.

Efficacy of endoscopic treatment on patients with severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the natural history of severe dysplasia/carcinoma in situ (SD/CIS) patients and to evaluate the efficacy of endoscopic treatment to SD/CIS patients. METHODS: Between January 2005 and December 2009, a population-based prospective screening program on esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) was performed in Linzhou, China, with endoscopic screening plus iodine staining. All the eligible histologically confirmed SD/CIS patients were followed up through the door-to-door follow-up and local cancer registry. The endpoint was diagnosed as ESCC or the December 31st, 2016. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Log-rank test were used to compare the survival rates among treated and untreated patients. RESULTS: A total of 175 SD/CIS patients were enrolled and grouped by whether they received endoscopic treatment. Eleven-year cumulative incidence rates for untreated and treated SD/CIS patients were 10.7% [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 6.9-16.1] and 3.2% (95% CI: 1.4-7.0), respectively. The ESCC incidence free survival rate, and all-cause incidence and mortality free survival rates were all significantly higher in the treated patientsvs. untreated patients (P=0.043, P=0.008 and P=0.015, respectively). The ESCC mortality free survival rate showed no significant differences between the two groups (P=0.847). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence rate of SD/CIS patients to ESCC was much lower than previously reported. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that endoscopic treatment could increase the ESCC and all-cause disease-free survival rates of SD/CIS patients significantly.

Endoscopy screening effect on stage distributions of esophageal cancer: A cluster randomized cohort study in China.

Efficacy of endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer is not sufficiently definitive and lacks randomized controlled trial evidence. The present study proved short-term screening efficacy through describing and comparing disease stage distributions of intervention and control populations. Villages from Linzhou and Cixian were cluster randomly allocated to the intervention or to the control group and the target population of 52 729 and 43 068 individuals was 40-69 years old, respectively, and the actual enrolled numbers were 18 316 and 21 178, respectively. TNM stage information and study-defined stage information of esophageal cases from 2012 to 2016 were collected. Stage distributions were compared between the intervention and control groups in the total target population, as well as in the subgroup populations in terms of enrolment and before or after intervention. There were a total of 199 and 141 esophageal cancer cases in the intervention and control groups, respectively. For the target population, distributions of TNM stage were borderline significant between the two groups after intervention (P = .093). However, subgroup analysis of the enrolled population during the after-intervention period had statistical significance for both TNM and study-defined stage. Natural TNM stage distributions were approximately 32%, 41%, 24% and 3% for stages I to IV vs 71%, 19%, 7% and 3% in the intervention population. The natural study-defined stage distributions from early, middle to advanced stages were approximately 18%, 49% and 33% vs 59%, 33% and 8%. Early-stage esophageal cancer cases accounted for a higher proportion after endoscopy screening, and the efficacy in the target population depends on the intervention compliance.

DNA image cytometry test for primary screening of esophageal cancer: a population-based multi-center study in high-risk areas in China.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility of DNA image cytometry (DNA-ICM) as a primary screening method for esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC). METHODS: A total of 5,382 local residents aged 40-69 years from three high-risk areas in China (Linzhou in Henan province, Feicheng in Shandong province and Cixian in Hebei province) from 2008 to 2011 were recruited in this population-based screening study. And 2,526 subjects declined to receive endoscopic biopsy examination with Lugol's iodine staining, while 9 and 815 subjects were excluded from liquid-based cytology and DNA-ICM test respectively due to slide quality. Finally, 2,856, 5,373 and 4,567 subjects were enrolled in the analysis for endoscopic biopsy examination, liquid-based cytology and DNA-ICM test, respectively. Sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP), negative predictive values (NPV) and positive predictive values (PPV) as well as their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for DNA-ICM, liquid-based cytology and the combination of the two methods were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to determine the cutoff point of DNA-ICM for esophageal cancer. RESULTS: DNA-ICM results were significantly correlative with esophageal cancer and precancer lesions (χ(2)=18.016, P<0.001). The cutoff points were 5,802, 5,803 and 8,002 based on dissimilar pathological types of low grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN), high grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN), and ESCC, respectively, and 5,803 was chosen in this study considering the SE and SP. The SE, SP, PPV, NPV of DNA-ICM test (cutoff point 5,803) combined with liquid-based cytology [threshold atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS)] were separately 72.1% (95% CI: 70.3%-73.9%), 43.3% (95% CI: 41.3%-45.3%), 22.8% (95% CI: 21.1%-24.5%) and 87.0% (95% CI: 85.7%-88.3%) for LGIN, 85.7% (95% CI: 84.3%-87.1%), 41.3% (95% CI: 39.3%-43.3%), 4.6% (95% CI: 3.8%-5.4%) and 98.9% (95% CI: 98.5%-99.3%) for HGIN, and 96.0% (95% CI: 95.2%-96.8%), 40.8% (95% CI: 38.8%-42.8%), 1.7% (95% CI: 1.2%-2.2%) and 99.9% (95% CI: 99.8%-100.0%) for ESCC. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to use DNA-ICM test as a primary screening method before endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer.

[Cost-effectiveness analysis of esophageal cancer once-in-a-lifetime endoscopic screening in high-risk areas of rural China].

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of esophageal cancer endoscopic screening once-in-a-lifetime and to predict the optimal screening age for people in high-risk areas of rural China. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to predict and compare the effect of four esophageal cancer endoscopic screening modalities which varied with different screening ages. Long-term epidemiological effectiveness and cost-effectiveness were predicted by simulation of the model. RESULTS: Compared with the control group, strategies starting at 40, 45, 50 and 55 year-old had saved life-years of 629.51, 769.88, 738.98 and 533.21 years per 100 000 people, respectively, of which the strategy starting at 45 year-old saved the maximum life years. All strategies were cost-effective and starting at 40 year-old cost the most per life-year saved. Among all alternatives, strategies starting age at 45 year-old and 50 year-old were incremental cost-effective, and the incremental cost-effective ratios were 34 962.87 and 3 346.43 RMB per life year saved, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The strategy starting at 40 year-old implemented at present and other strategies were cost-effective in high-risk areas of rural China. However, the 45-year-old group is more aligned with the principle of cost-effectiveness. Considering the cost-effectiveness of different strategies and social economic status, 45 year-old is regarded as the optimal starting age of esophageal cancer once-in-a-lifetime endoscopic screening and is recommended in areas lacking health resources. The strategy of starting age at 40 year-old which could obtain better screening effects would be preferable in wealthy regions.

[Distribution of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions in high-risk areas, Linzhou in Henan province and Feicheng in Shandong province of China, 2005-2009].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the distribution of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions in high-risk areas of China, and to provide evidence for determining the reference ranges of detection rates in high-risk areas. METHODS: Endoscopy with Lugol's iodine staining was performed on 15 709 local residents aged 40 to 69 years old in Linzhou of Henan province and Feicheng of Shandong province from 2005-2009. 35 cases without accurate pathology diagnosis and 11 cases with vital disease before screening were excluded. 15 663 subjects were enrolled in this study. Compliance was calculated by the percentage of the people who had endoscopic screening among the target population. Chi-square test and trend chi-square test were used to compare the distribution differences in age, gender and areas of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precancer. 95% CI of the detection rates was then employed to represent the reference ranges of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions. RESULTS: The compliance rate of screening endoscopy of this study was 49.36% (15 709/31 826) of all, and female's compliance (54.05%, 8 447/15 628) was much higher than that of male (44.83%, 7 262/16 198) (χ(2) = 88.14, P < 0.001). The detection rates of basal cell hyperplasia, low grade intraepithelial neoplasia, high grade intraepithelial neoplasia and esophageal squamous cell cancer of males were 4.17% (302/7 246), 17.22% (1 248/7 246), 1.67% (121/7 246), 0.83% (60/7 246), and were higher than that of females (3.45% (290/8 417), 14.82% (1 247/8 417), 1.41% (119/8 417), 0.48% (40/8 417), respectively). Except for high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, the detection rates of male were higher than that of female (P values were 0.018, < 0.001, 0.960, 0.006). The detection rates of all grades of precursor lesions increased with age rising (all P values < 0.001), among which the detection rates of the mentioned four lesions for 40-44 years old were 2.69% (94/3 500), 8.11% (284/3 500), 0.40% (14/3 500), 0.14% (5/3 500), and that of 65-69 years old were 5.46% (46/843), 23.25% (196/843), 3.68% (31/843), 2.14% (18/843). The proportion of esophageal precursor lesion of Linzhou were higher than that of Feicheng observably except for esophageal squamous cell cancer (P values were < 0.001, < 0.001, < 0.001, 0.437). The detection rates of the four lesions of Linzhou and Feicheng were 4.90% (504/10 287), 17.37% (1 787/10 287), 1.79% (184/1 0287), 0.60% (62/10 287) and 1.64% (88/5 376), 13.17% (708/5 376), 1.04% (56/5 376), 0.71% (38/5 376). The 95% CI of detection rates of various lesions were, 3.78% (3.48%-4.08%) for basal cell hyperplasia, 15.93% (15.37%-16.50%) for low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, 12.31% (11.79%-12.82%) for mild dysplasia and 3.62% (3.33%-3.91%) for moderate hyperplasia, 1.53% (1.34%-1.72%) for high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia and 0.64% (0.51%-0.76%) for esophageal squamous cell cancer, respectively. CONCLUSION: Up to 21.88% residents that were asymptomatic were suffered from esophageal squamous cancer or precursor lesions in high-risk areas in China. The distribution of esophageal squamous cell cancer and precursor lesions was closely related to the gender and the age, which suggested that males were supposed to be paid more attention to.

Non-invasive early detection on esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and precancerous lesions by microbial biomarkers combining epidemiological factors in China.

BACKGROUND: Microbiota may be associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) development. However, it is not known the predictive value of microbial biomarkers combining epidemiological factors for the early detection of ESCC and precancerous lesions. METHODS: A total of 449 specimens (esophageal swabs and saliva) were collected from 349 participants with different esophageal statuses in China to explore and validate ESCC-associated microbial biomarkers from genes level to species level by 16S rRNA sequencing, metagenomic sequencing and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: A bacterial biomarker panel including Actinomyces graevenitzii (A.g_1, A.g_2, A.g_3, A.g_4), Fusobacteria nucleatum (F.n_1, F.n_2, F.n_3), Haemophilus haemolyticus (H.h_1), Porphyromonas gingivalis (P.g_1, P.g_2, P.g_3) and Streptococcus australis (S.a_1) was explored by metagenomic sequencing to early detect the participants in Need group (low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia and ESCC) vs participants without these lesions as the Noneed group. Significant quantitative differences existed for each microbial target in which the detection efficiency rate was higher in saliva than esophageal swab. In saliva, the area under the curve (AUC) based on the microbial biomarkers (A.g_4 ∩ P.g_3 ∩ H.h_1 ∩ S.a_1 ∩ F.n_2) was 0.722 (95% CI 0.621-0.823) in the exploration cohort. Combining epidemiological factors (age, smoking, drinking, intake of high-temperature food and toothache), the AUC improved to 0.869 (95% CI 0.802-0.937) in the exploration cohort, which was validated with AUC of 0.757 (95% CI 0.663-0.852) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to combine microbial biomarkers in saliva and epidemiological factors to early detect ESCC and precancerous lesions in China.

[Long-term outcomes of endoscopic argon plasma coagulation (APC) therapy for early esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term outcomes of endoscopic argon plasma coagulation (APC) therapy for early esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions. METHODS: One-hundred and seventy-one cases with early esophageal cancer (intramucosal carcinoma) and precancerous lesions were treated by APC from 1994 to 2005, and all the cases were followed up. One-hundred and sixty-eight (98.2%) cases were follow-up by endoscopic examination for several times. On average, each patient was endoscopically examined 2.8 times. The follow-up rate was 100%. RESULTS: The precancerous lesion group had 160 patients. They were followed up for 5 years. 11 patients died of causes unrelated to cancer. The lesions developed into esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in five patients ( 2 died and 3 underwent esophagectomy). The remaining 144 cases survived without cancer. In this group, the esophageal cancer incidence rate is only 3.1% (5/160). The early cancer (i.e. intramucosal cancer) group had 11 patients. During the 5-year follow-up period, two patients died of causes unrelated to cancer,six patients had recurrence (4 patients died and 2 patients underwent esophagectomy), and only 3 patients survived without cancer. Therefore, the 5-year survival rate was only 27.3% (3/11). CONCLUSIONS: The APC therapy for precancerous lesions of the esophagus is effective and successful. Indications should be carefully considered when treating early esophageal cancer such as intramucosal carcinoma by APC therapy.

Optimal starting age of endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in China: A multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer has been performed in high-risk areas in China for decades, there is limited and inconsistent evidence regarding the starting age for individuals participating in screening. The aim of this study is to investigate the optimal starting age of esophageal cancer screening. METHODS: This study is based on a multicenter prospective cohort consisting 338,017 permanent residents aged 40-69 years in six high-risk areas of esophageal cancer in China. The participation rate, detection rate, hazard ratios (HRs), cumulative incidence and mortality and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated in each age group. Screening burden, benefit and risk were compared among screening strategies with different initiation ages to explore the optimal starting age for population-based screening in high-risk areas. RESULTS: Individuals aged 50-69 had a higher participation rate, a higher detection rate and improved screening effectiveness than those aged 40-49. The endoscopic screening had no significant effect on reducing the incidence of esophageal cancer in individuals under 55 and mortality in individuals under 45. Increasing the starting age to 50 years reduced the screening demand and NNS by 40% and 55%, and resulted in 12% of detectable positive cases, 16% of preventable incident cases, and 14% of preventable deaths being missed. CONCLUSIONS: Postponing the starting age of endoscopic screening to 50 years might yield a more-favorable balance between screening benefit and burden in high- risk areas with limited resources.

Microbial Diversity and Composition in Six Different Gastrointestinal Sites among Participants Undergoing Upper Gastrointestinal Endoscopy in Henan, China.

The objective of this study was to describe and compare the dynamic microbiota characteristics in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract in Chinese participants via high-throughput sequencing techniques. The study collected saliva, esophageal swab, cardia biopsy, noncardia biopsy, gastric juice, and fecal specimens from 40 participants who underwent upper GI tract cancer screening in Linzhou (Henan, China) in August 2019. The V4 region of 16S rRNA genes was amplified and sequenced using the Illumina MiniSeq platform. The observed amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) gradually decreased from saliva to esophageal swab, cardia biopsy, noncardia biopsy, and gastric juice specimens and then increased from gastric juice to fecal specimens (P < 0.05). Each GI site had its own microbial characteristics that overlapped those of adjacent sites. Characteristic genera for each site were as follows: Neisseria and Prevotella in saliva, Streptococcus and Haemophilus in the esophagus, Helicobacter in the noncardia, Pseudomonas in gastric juice, Faecalibacterium, Roseburia, and Blautia in feces, and Weissella in the cardia. Helicobacter pylori-positive participants had decreased observed ASVs (cardia, P < 0.01; noncardia, P < 0.001) and Shannon index values (cardia, P < 0.001; noncardia, P < 0.001) compared with H. pylori-negative participants both in cardia and noncardia specimens. H. pylori infection played a more important role in the microbial composition of noncardia than of cardia specimens. In gastric juice, the gastric pH and H. pylori infection had similar additive effects on the microbial diversity and composition. These results show that each GI site has its own microbial characteristics that overlap those of adjacent sites and that differences and commonalities between and within microbial compositions coexist, providing essential foundations for the continuing exploration of disease-associated microbiota. IMPORTANCE Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) tract cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide, while limited attention has been paid to the UGI microbiota. Microbial biomarkers, such as Fusobacteria nucleatum and Helicobacter pylori, bring new ideas for early detection of UGI tract cancer, which may be a highly feasible method to reduce its disease burden. This study revealed that each gastrointestinal site had its own microbial characteristics that overlapped those of adjacent sites. There were significant differences between the microbial compositions of the UGI sites and feces. Helicobacter pylori played a more significant role in the microbial composition of the noncardia stomach than in that of the cardia. Gastric pH and Helicobacter pylori had similar additive effects on the microbial diversity of gastric juice. These findings played a key role in delineating the microbiology spectrum of the gastrointestinal tract and provided baseline information for future microbial exploration covering etiology, primary screening, treatment, outcome, and health care products.

Characterization of the Oral and Esophageal Microbiota in Esophageal Precancerous Lesions and Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Important evidence indicates that the microbiota plays a key role in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Here, paired saliva and brush specimens were obtained from 276 participants undergoing upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination before or during screening for upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer. The esophageal microbiota was investigated by 16S rRNA gene profiling and next-generation sequencing. We observed that as the disease progressed, the α diversity in the saliva and cell brush samples decreased. Linear discriminant analysis effect size (LEfSe) results showed that in both the saliva and cell brush specimens, Granulicatella, Rothia, Streptococcus, Gemella, Leptotrichia and Schaalia were common biomarkers in patients with low-grade dysplasia, Lactobacillus was a common biomarker in patients with high-grade dysplasia, and Bosea, Solobacterium, Gemella, and Peptostreptococcus were common biomarkers in patients with esophageal cancer. The top 3 genera in the saliva and cell brush specimens had areas under the curve (AUCs) of 87.16 and 89.13%, respectively, to distinguish ESCC patients from normal people. The PICRUSt2 results identified in brush samples that patients with ESCC had decreased nitrate reductase functions. Our results suggest that future studies can focus on the function of the characteristic bacteria in ESCC.

[Natural progression of early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma].

OBJECTIVE: The survival time of untreated advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is about 8 - 9 months. The objective of this study was to observe the natural progression of untreated early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma for 20 years. METHODS: 4800 subjects from a high risk area of esophageal cancer in Lin-zhou city, Henan province, were examined by endoscopy from 1985 to 1990. Among them, 132 cases were diagnosed as early esophageal cancer. Based on the criteria, the lesions were endoscopically diagnosed as superficial mucosal lesions and histopathologically confirmed by biopsy as carcinoma in situ, intramucosal carcinoma or squamous cell carcinoma. 48 of the 132 patients, who refused treatment, were followed up to the end of 2005. There were 43 death and 5 alive. 40 patients were re-examined for 1 - 4 times by endoscopy during the following up. RESULTS: A total of 48 patients have been followed up for 20 years. 38 (79.2%) cases died of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, 5 (10.4%) died of non-cancer diseases and 5 (10.4%) were surviving. 37 patients had survived for over 5 years. The 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-years survival rates were 77.1%, 39.6%, 25.0% and 10.4%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The natural history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma takes a long time to progress from early to advanced stage. It is very helpful for early diagnosis and selection of opportunity for treatment. The leading time bias by natural history of this disease should be considered when evaluate therapeutic effect on early stage esophageal cancer.

[A prospective study of the origin of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the esophageal mucosa:result from a high risk area of esophageal cancer in China during a 15-year follow up (1987 - 2002)].

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to observe the association between the occurrence of esophageal cancer lesions and esophageal mucosa fold (white ridges), and further identify where is the initial origin of esophageal cancer lesions in the esophagus mucosa. METHODS: This was a cohort study which recruited 551 subjects underwent endoscopic examination in a high risk area of esophageal cancer in Linxian, Henan Province in 1987. 339 subjects with esophageal white ridges, and with red area or erosion lesion at the surface of the white ridges, was studied as exposure group. Other 212 subjects whose esophagus had no white ridges and pathological diagnosis was negative, was studied as control group. The endpoint was occurrence of pathologically confirmed esophageal cancer. After a 15-year follow-up, the results were compared between two groups. RESULTS: Among the 551 subjects, there were 339 cases with esophageal mucosal white ridges in the exposure group. During the period of 15 year follow-up, the incidence of esophageal cancer was 11.8% (9/76) in 76 case with simple mucosal white ridges, 33.5% (88/263) in 263 subjects with white ridges and red area, or erosions on the surface of white ridge. While only 8.0% of subjects (17/212) developed esophageal cancer after the 15-year follow up in the control group. There was a significant difference between the two groups (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Esophageal mucosal white ridge, especially white ridge with red area or erosions is closely associated with subsequent esophageal cancer occurrence in the esophageal cancer high risk area in China. It is suggested that esophageal mucosa with white ridge may be the initial origin of esophageal cancer. Further investigations focused on this spot are required.

Estimating Individualized Absolute Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Population-Based Study in High-Risk Areas of China.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a high incidence rate and poor prognosis. In this study, we aimed to develop a predictive model to estimate the individualized 5-year absolute risk for ESCC in Chinese populations living in the high-risk areas of China. METHODS: We developed a risk-predicting model based on the epidemiologic data from a population-based case-control study including 244 newly diagnosed ESCC patients and 1,220 healthy controls. Initially, we included easy-to-obtain risk factors to construct the model using the multivariable logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) with cross-validation methods was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Combined with local age- and sex-specific ESCC incidence and mortality rates, the model was then used to estimate the absolute risk of developing ESCC within 5 years. RESULTS: A relative risk model was established that included eight factors: age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, education, and dietary habits (intake of hot food, intake of pickled/salted food, and intake of fresh fruit). The relative risk model had good discrimination [AUC, 0.785; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.749-0.821]. The estimated 5-year absolute risk of ESCC for individuals varied widely, from 0.0003% to 19.72% in the studied population, depending on the exposure to risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our model based on readily identifiable risk factors showed good discriminative accuracy and strong robustness. And it could be applied to identify individuals with a higher risk of developing ESCC in the Chinese population, who might benefit from further targeted screening to prevent esophageal cancer.

Helicobacter pylori Is Associated With Precancerous and Cancerous Lesions of the Gastric Cardia Mucosa: Results of a Large Population-Based Study in China.

Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is widely accepted to be the most important cause of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA), while its role in the development of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) is not well-defined. We aimed to investigate current H. pylori infection in relation to the severity of both precancerous and cancerous lesions of the gastric cardia in an Asian population at high risk of GCA. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Linzhou County, Henan Province, China. Two thousand three (2,003) randomly selected participants with data on current H. pylori infection, assayed by 13C-urea breath test (13C-UBT), and a sequence of histological diagnoses of the gastric cardia mucosa were analyzed. Results: Of 2,003 subjects, 828 (41.33%) were currently infected with H. pylori. The prevalence of current H. pylori infection increased with increasing severity of histological lesions, from 34.12% in subjects with normal gastric cardia mucosa to 52.17% in subjects with gastric cardia high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (CHIN)/ gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) (P for trend <0.001). With H. pylori-negative subjects as the reference category, H. pylori-positive subjects had statistically significant elevated adjusted prevalence odds ratios (PORs) for each of the histological lesions. The PORs (95% CI) were 2.15 (1.74-2.64), 3.46 (2.08-5.75), 2.78 (1.90-4.07), and 3.05 (1.30-7.17) for subjects with carditis, cardia intestinal metaplasia (CIM), cardia low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (CLIN), and CHIN/GCA), respectively. The associations remained when subjects with abnormal stomach non-cardia mucosa were excluded. Conclusions: This large epidemiologic study demonstrates a positive association between current H. pylori infection and the severity of both precancerous and cancerous lesions of the gastric cardia in an Asian population at high risk of GCA. These findings suggest that H. pylori infection may play a role throughout both early- and late-stage development of GCA.

Cytologic detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and its precursor lesions using balloon samplers and liquid-based cytology in asymptomatic adults in Llinxian, China.

OBJECTIVE: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is associated with very high regional mortality rates in several countries. Our initial test of esophageal cytology screening devices found them not sensitive enough for an early detection program. The current study tested a newly designed "mechanical" balloon and a traditional Chinese inflatable balloon, followed by liquid-based cytology, to detect biopsy-proven squamous dysplasia and early cancer. STUDY DESIGN: Participants were randomized to a cytologic sampler, followed by endoscopy with iodine staining. For each patient, the cytologic diagnosis (test) was compared with the worst endoscopic biopsy diagnosis (truth). RESULTS: Seven hundred forty subjects completed both examinations. Approximately 30% showed atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS), and 10% showed squamous intraepithelial lesions. Seven hundred twenty-five subjects (98%) had satisfactory biopsies, and 32% had low grade dysplasia or worse disease. Defining > ASCUS, favor neoplastic, as a positive screening test, the sensitivities/specificities of the mechanical and inflatable balloons were 39%/85% and 46%/84%, respectively, for detecting any squamous dysplasia or cancer. CONCLUSION: These esophageal cell samplers performed equivalently, but the accuracy was still too low for a primary screening test. These results highlight the need to develop new cytologic criteria or molecular markers that can better detect early squamous esophageal disease [corrected]