Spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth in China, 1990-2020: A systematic review and modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the long-term trends of preterm birth rates in China and their geographic variation by province. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth rates in China by province from 1990 to 2020. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, CNKI, WANFANG and VIP from January 1990 to September 2023. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Studies that provided data on preterm births in China after 1990 were included. Data were extracted following the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. SYNTHESIS: We assessed the quality of each survey using a 9-point checklist. We estimated the annual preterm birth risk by province using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models considering potential socioeconomic, environmental, and sanitary predictors. RESULTS: Based on 634 survey data from 343 included studies, we found a gradual increase in the preterm birth risk in most provinces in China since 1990, with an average annual increase of 0.7% nationally. However, the preterm birth rates in Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Fujian Province showed a decline, while those in Sichuan were quite stable since 1990. In 2020, the estimates of preterm birth rates ranged from 2.9% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2.1, 3.8) in Inner Mongolia to 8.5% (95% BCI 6.6, 10.9) in Jiangxi, with the national estimate of 5.9% (95% BCI 4.3, 8.1). Specifically, some provinces were identified as high-risk provinces for either consistently high preterm birth rates (e.g. Jiangxi) or relatively large increases (e.g. Shanxi) since 1990. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides annual information on the preterm birth risk in China since 1990 and identifies high-risk provinces to assist in targeted control and intervention for this health issue.

Predicting the incidence of infectious diarrhea with symptom surveillance data using a stacking-based ensembled model.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diarrhea remains a major public health problem worldwide. This study used stacking ensemble to developed a predictive model for the incidence of infectious diarrhea, aiming to achieve better prediction performance. METHODS: Based on the surveillance data of infectious diarrhea cases, relevant symptoms and meteorological factors of Guangzhou from 2016 to 2021, we developed four base prediction models using artificial neural networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), support vector regression (SVR) and extreme gradient boosting regression trees (XGBoost), which were then ensembled using stacking to obtain the final prediction model. All the models were evaluated with three metrics: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). RESULTS: Base models that incorporated symptom surveillance data and weekly number of infectious diarrhea cases were able to achieve lower RMSEs, MAEs, and MAPEs than models that added meteorological data and weekly number of infectious diarrhea cases. The LSTM had the best prediction performance among the four base models, and its RMSE, MAE, and MAPE were: 84.85, 57.50 and 15.92%, respectively. The stacking ensembled model outperformed the four base models, whose RMSE, MAE, and MAPE were 75.82, 55.93, and 15.70%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incorporation of symptom surveillance data could improve the predictive accuracy of infectious diarrhea prediction models, and symptom surveillance data was more effective than meteorological data in enhancing model performance. Using stacking to combine multiple prediction models were able to alleviate the difficulty in selecting the optimal model, and could obtain a model with better performance than base models.

How long-term PM exposure may affect all-site cancer mortality: Evidence from a large cohort in southern China.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of a potential causal link between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and all-site cancer mortality from large population cohorts remained limited and suffered from residual confounding issues with traditional statistical methods. AIMS: We aimed to examine the potential causal relationship between long-term PM exposure and all-site cancer mortality in South China using causal inference methods. METHODS: We used a cohort in southern China that recruited 580,757 participants from 2009 through 2015 and tracked until 2020. Annual averages of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 concentrations were generated with validated spatiotemporal models. We employed a causal inference approach, the Marginal Structural Cox model, based on observational data to evaluate the association between long-term exposure to PM and all-site cancer mortality. RESULTS: With an increase of 1 µg/m³ in PM1, PM2.5, and PM10, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for all-site cancer were 1.033 (95% CI: 1.025-1.041), 1.032 (95% CI: 1.027-1.038), and 1.020 (95% CI: 1.016-1.025), respectively. The HRs (95% CI) for digestive system and respiratory system cancer mortality associated with each 1 µg/m³ increase in PM1 were 1.022 (1.009-1.035) and 1.053 (1.038-1.068), respectively. In addition, inactive participants, who never smoked, or who lived in areas of low surrounding greenness were more susceptible to the effects of PM exposure, the HRs (95% CI) for all-site cancer mortality were 1.042 (1.031-1.053), 1.041 (1.032-1.050), and 1.0473 (1.025-1.070) for every 1 µg/m³ increase in PM1, respectively. The effect of PM1 tended to be more pronounced in the low-exposure group than in the general population, and multiple sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. CONCLUSION: This study provided evidence that long-term exposure to PM may elevate the risk of all-site cancer mortality, emphasizing the potential health benefits of improving air quality for cancer prevention.

Unveiling causal connections: Long-term particulate matter exposure and type 2 diabetes mellitus mortality in Southern China.

Evidence of the potential causal links between long-term exposure to particulate matters (PM, i.e., PM1, PM2.5, and PM1-2.5) and T2DM mortality based on large cohorts is limited. In contrast, the existing evidence usually suffers from inherent bias with the traditional association assessment. A prospective cohort of 580,757 participants in the southern region of China were recruited during 2009 and 2015 and followed up through December 2020. PM exposure at each residential address was estimated by linking to the well-established high-resolution simulation dataset. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using time-varying marginal structural Cox models, an established causal inference approach, after adjusting for potential confounders. During follow-up, a total of 717 subjects died from T2DM. For every 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, the adjusted HRs and 95% confidence interval (CI) for T2DM mortality was 1.036 (1.019-1.053). Similarly, for every 1 µg/m3 increase in PM1 and PM1-2.5, the adjusted HRs and 95% CIs were 1.032 (1.003-1.062) and 1.085 (1.054-1.116), respectively. Additionally, we observed a generally more pronounced impact among individuals with lower levels of education or lower residential greenness which as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We identified substantial interactions between NDVI and PM1 (P-interaction = 0.003), NDVI and PM2.5 (P-interaction = 0.019), as well as education levels and PM1 (P-interaction = 0.049). The study emphasizes the need to consider environmental and socio-economic factors in strategies to reduce T2DM mortality. We found that PM1, PM2.5, and PM1-2.5 heighten the peril of T2DM mortality, with education and green space exposure roles in modifying it.

Analysis of health service utilization and influencing factors due to COVID-19 in Beijing: a large cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: In the wake of China's relaxed zero-COVID policy, there was a surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections. This study aimed to examine the infection status and health service utilization among Beijing residents during a widespread outbreak, and to explore the factors that affected utilization of health services due to COVID-19. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among Beijing residents from 13 January to 13 February 2023, collecting information on socio-demographic characteristics, health behaviours, COVID-19 infection status, utilization of health services and depressive symptoms. Multivariate Tobit regression was used for data analysis. RESULTS: Among the 53 924 participants, 14.7% were older than 60 years, 63.7% were female and 84.8% were married. In total, 44 992 of the 53 924 individuals surveyed (83.4%) contracted COVID-19 during 2020-2023, and 25.2% (13 587) sought corresponding health services. The majority of individuals (85.6%) chose in-person healthcare, while 14.4% chose internet-based healthcare. Among those who chose in-person healthcare, 58.6% preferred primary healthcare institutions and 41.5% were very satisfied with the treatment. Factors affecting health service utilization include being female (ß = -0.15, P < 0.001), older than 60 years (ß = 0.23, P < 0.01), non-healthcare workers (ß = -0.60, P < 0.001), rich self-rated income level (ß = 0.59, P < 0.001), having underlying disease (ß = 0.51, P < 0.001), living alone (ß = -0.19, P < 0.05), depressive symptoms (ß = 0.06, P < 0.001) and healthy lifestyle habits, as well as longer infection duration, higher infection numbers and severe symptoms. CONCLUSION: As COVID-19 is becoming more frequent and less severe, providing safe and accessible healthcare remains critical. Vulnerable groups such as the elderly and those with underlying conditions need reliable health service. Prioritizing primary healthcare resources and online medical services have played a vital role in enhancing resource utilization efficiency.

Morbidity, Mortality, and Pathologic Outcomes of Transanal Versus Laparoscopic Total Mesorectal Excision for Rectal Cancer Short-term Outcomes From a Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the morbidity, mortality, and pathologic outcomes of transanal total mesorectal resection (taTME) versus laparoscopic total mesorectal excision (laTME) among patients with rectal cancer with clinical stage I to III rectal cancer below the peritoneal reflection. BACKGROUND: Studies with sufficient numbers of patients allowing clinical acceptance of taTME for rectal cancer are lacking. Thus, we launched a randomized clinical trial to compare the safety and efficacy of taTME versus laTME. METHODS: A randomized, open-label, phase 3, noninferiority trial was performed at 16 different hospitals in 10 Chinese provinces. The primary endpoints were 3-year disease-free survival and 5-year overall survival. The morbidity and mortality within 30 days after surgery, and pathologic outcomes were compared based on a modified intention-to-treat principle; this analysis was preplanned. RESULTS: Between April 13, 2016, and June 1, 2021, 1115 patients were randomized 1:1 to receive taTME or laTME. After exclusion of 26 cases, modified intention-to-treat set of taTME versus laTME groups included 544 versus 545 patients. There were no significant differences between taTME and laTME groups in intraoperative complications [26 (4.8%) vs 33 (6.1%); difference, -1.3%; 95% confidence interval (CI), -4.2% to 1.7%; P =0.42], postoperative morbidity [73 (13.4%) vs 66 (12.1%); difference, 1.2%; 95% CI, -2.8% to 5.2%; P =0.53), or mortality [1 (0.2%) vs 1 (0.2%)]. Successful resection occurred in 538 (98.9%) versus 538 (98.7%) patients in taTME versus laTME groups (difference, 0.2%; 95% CI, -1.9% to 2.2%; P >0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Experienced surgeons can safely perform taTME in selected patients with rectal cancer.

Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention. CONCLUSION: Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE[30-70].

Effects of family multi-generational relationship on multimorbidity and healthy life expectancy for second generations: insight from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: In the context of aging, Chinese families consisting of more than three generations (grandparents, parents, children) are the norm. The second generation (parents) and other family members may establish a downward (contact only with children) or two-way multi-generational relationship (contact with children and grandparents). These multi-generational relationships may have the potential effect on multimorbidity burden and healthy life expectancy in the second generation, but less is known about the direction and intensity of this effect. This study aims to explore this potential effect. METHODS: We obtained longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018, which included 6,768 people. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between multi-generational relationships and the number of multimorbidity. The Markov multi-state transition model was used to analyze the relationship between multi-generational relationships and the severity of multimorbidity. The multistate life table was used to calculate healthy life expectancy for different multi-generational relationships. RESULTS: The risk of multimorbidity in two-way multi-generational relationship was 0.830 (95% CIs: 0.715, 0.963) times higher than that in downward multi-generational relationship. For mild multimorbidity burden, downward and two-way multi-generational relationship may prevent aggravation of burden. For severe multimorbidity burden, two-way multi-generational relationship may aggravate the burden. Compared with two-way multi-generational relationship, the second generations with downward multi-generational relationship has a higher healthy life expectancy at all ages. CONCLUSION: In Chinese families with more than three generations, the second generations with severe multimorbidity burden may aggravate the condition by providing support to elderly grandparents, and the support provided by offspring to the second generations plays a vital positive role in improving the quality of life and narrowing the gap between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy.

Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy and Its Predictive Factors Among People Living with HIV in China: A Behavioral Theory-Based Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Free antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been expanded to all people living with HIV (PLWH) in China since 2016, and adherence to ART has been shown to be the primary determinant of viral suppression. This study aimed to investigate the ART adherence and its associated factors among PLWH in China in the context of a scaling-up of treatment policy. METHOD: A prospective cohort study was conducted from June 2016 to May 2018 in Guangzhou, China. A total of 400 eligible participants were recruited from the Guangzhou Eighth People's hospital in Guangzhou, China. The Theory of Planned Behavior and the Behavioral Maintenance Theory were applied to guide the questionnaire design. Participants were invited to completed self-administered questionnaire at baseline and months 3 and 6 post-baseline. Logistic regression models were fitted to explore factors associated with ART adherence. RESULTS: Of the 400 participants, the prevalence of optimal ART adherence was 83.6% at month 3 and 83.3% at month 6. The baseline attitude (ORa = 1.11, P < 0.05), behavioral intention (ORa = 1.90, P < 0.05), and outcome expectations (ORa = 1.09, P < 0.001) predicted ART adherence at month 3 in adjusted analyses, but only outcome expectations (ORa = 1.09, P < 0.01) remained significant in the final multivariate model. At month 3, negative experiences (ORa = 0.62, P < 0.05) were the only predictor of adherence at month 6. CONCLUSION: Approximately 15% of participants reported suboptimal ART adherence. The developments of tailored interventions that target factors such as outcome expectations at baseline and negative experiences during treatment are warranted.

Uptake of an App-Based Case Management Service for HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Process Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in China are disproportionately affected by the HIV epidemic, and medication adherence to antiretroviral treatment in this vulnerable population is suboptimal. To address this issue, we developed an app-based case management service with multiple components, informed by the Information Motivation Behavioral skills model. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to conduct a process evaluation for the implementation of an innovative app-based intervention guided by the Linnan and Steckler framework. METHODS: Process evaluation was performed alongside a randomized controlled trial in the largest HIV clinic in Guangzhou, China. Eligible participants were HIV-positive MSM aged ≥18 years planning to initiate treatment on the day of recruitment. The app-based intervention had 4 components: web-based communication with case managers, educational articles, supportive service information (eg, information on mental health care and rehabilitation service), and hospital visit reminders. Process evaluation indicators of the intervention include dose delivered, dose received, fidelity, and satisfaction. The behavioral outcome was adherence to antiretroviral treatment at month 1, and Information Motivation Behavioral skills model scores were the intermediate outcome. Logistic and linear regression was used to investigate the association between intervention uptake and outcomes, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 344 MSM were recruited from March 19, 2019, to January 13, 2020, and 172 were randomized to the intervention group. At month 1 follow-up, there was no significant difference in the proportion of adherent participants between the intervention and control groups (66/144, 45.8% vs 57/134, 42.5%; P=.28). In the intervention group, 120 participants engaged in web-based communication with case managers and 158 accessed at least 1 of the delivered articles. The primary concern captured in the web-based conversation was the side effects of the medication (114/374, 30.5%), which was also one of the most popular educational articles topics. The majority (124/144, 86.1%) of participants that completed the month 1 survey rated the intervention as "very helpful" or "helpful." The number of educational articles accessed was associated with adequate adherence in the intervention group (odds ratio 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.15; P=.009). The intervention also improved the motivation score after adjusting for baseline values (ß=2.34, 95% CI 0.77-3.91; P=.004). However, the number of web-based conversations, regardless of conversation features, was associated with lower motivation scores in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was well-received. Delivering educational resources of interest may enhance medication adherence. The uptake of the web-based communication component could serve as an indicator of real-life difficulties and could be used by case managers to identify potential inadequate adherence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrial.gov NCT03860116; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03860116. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR2-10.1186/s12889-020-8171-5.

Is COPD mortality in South China causally linked to the long-term PM1 exposure? Evidence from a large community-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Long-term ambient particulate matter (PM) exposure has been found associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality in an increasing body of research. However, limited evidence was available on the potential causal links between PM1 and COPD mortality, especially in highly exposed areas. OBJECTIVES: To examine the COPD mortality risk following long-term ambient PM1 exposure in south China. METHODS: The cohort included 580,757 participants recruited during 2009-2015. Satellite-based annual concentrations of PM1 were estimated at a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km and assigned to each participant based on their residential addresses. We analyzed the potential causal links between time-varying PM1 exposure and COPD mortality using marginal structural cox models within causal frameworks. Stratified analyses were also performed to identify the potential susceptible groups. RESULTS: The annual average PM1 concentration continuously decreased over time. After adjusting for confounders, each 1 µg/m3 increase in PM1 concentration corresponded to an 8.1 % (95% confidence interval: 6.4-9.9 %) increment in the risk of COPD mortality. The impact of PM1 was more pronounced among the elderly and those with low exercise frequency, with a 1.9-6.9 % higher risk than their counterparts. We further observed a 0.1-9.7 % greater risk among those who lived in lower greenness settings. Additionally, we observed higher effect estimates in participants with long-term low PM1 exposure compared to the general population. CONCLUSIONS: COPD mortality risk significantly increased following long term ambient PM1 exposure, particularly among groups with certain demographics or long-term low exposure.

Potential causal links between long-term ambient particulate matter exposure and cardiovascular mortality: New evidence from a large community-based cohort in South China.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is associated with long-term particulate matter (PM) exposure. However, evidence from large, highly-exposed population cohort and observational-data-based causal inference approaches remains limited. AIMS: We examined the potential causal links between PM exposure and the CVD mortality in South China. METHODS: 580,757 participants were recruited during 2009-2015 and followed up through 2020. Satellite-based annual concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, and PMcoarse (i.e., PM10 - PM2.5) at 1 km2 spatial resolution were estimated and assigned to each participant. Marginal structural Cox models with time-varying covariates, adjusted using inverse probability weighting, were developed to evaluate the association between prolonged PM exposure and CVD mortality. RESULTS: For overall CVD mortality, the hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval for each 1 µg/m3 increase in the annual average concentration of PM2.5, PM10, and PMcoarse were 1.033 (1.028-1.037), 1.028 (1.024-1.032), and 1.022 (1.012-1.033), respectively. All three PMs were linked to a higher mortality risk for myocardial infarction and ischemic heart disease (IHD). The mortality risk of chronic IHD and hypertension was linked to PM2.5 and PM10. Significant association between PMcoarse and other heart disease mortality was also observed. The older, women, less-educated participants, or inactive participants exhibited particularly higher susceptibility. Participants who were generally exposed to PM10 concentrations below 70 µg/m3 were more vulnerable to PM2.5-, PM10- and PMcoarse-CVD mortality risks. CONCLUSION: This large cohort study provides evidence for the potential causal links between increased CVD mortality and ambient PM exposure, as well as socio-demographics linked to the highest vulnerability.

Baseline and Process Factors of Anti-Retroviral Therapy That Predict Loss to Follow-up Among People Living with HIV/AIDS in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

We explored the predictors and predictive models of loss to follow-up (LTFU) during the first year of anti-retroviral therapy (ART). LTFU was defined as the failure to visit the clinic for antiretroviral drugs for ≥ 90 days after the last missed scheduled visit. Based on the electronic medical records of 5953 patients who were HIV positive and began ART between 2016 and 2019 in China, the LTFU rate was 7.24 (95% confidence interval 6.49-7.97) per 100 person-years during the first year of ART. ART baseline factors were associated with LTFU, but were non-optimal predictors. A model including ART process-related factors such as follow-up behaviors and physical health status had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 73.4% for predicting LTFU. Therefore, the medical records of follow-up visits can be used to identify patients with a high risk of LTFU and allow interventions to be implemented proactively.

Developing and validating a Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index for middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an index to quantify the multimorbidity burden in Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. METHODS: We included 20,035 individuals aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and 19,297 individuals aged 65 and older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Health outcomes of physical functioning (PF), basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL and IADL) and mortality were obtained. Based on self-reported disease status, we calculated five commonly used western multimorbidity indexes for CHARLS baseline participants. The one that predicted the health outcomes the best was selected and then modified through a linear mixed model using the repeated individual data in CHARLS. The performance of the modified index was internally and externally evaluated with CHARLS and CLHLS data. RESULTS: The multimorbidity-weighted index (MWI) performed the best among the five indexes. In the modified Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index (CMWI), the weights of the diseases varied greatly (range 0.2-5.1). The top three diseases with the highest impact were stroke, memory-related diseases and cancer, corresponding to weights of 5.1, 4.3 and 3.4, respectively. Compared with the MWI, the CMWI showed better model fits for PF and IADL with larger R2 and smaller Akaike information criterion, and comparable prediction performances for ADL, IADL and mortality (e.g. the same predictive accuracy of 0.80 for ADL disability). CONCLUSION: The CMWI is an adequate index to quantify the multimorbidity burden for Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. It can be directly computed via disease status examined in regular community health check-ups to facilitate health management.

Influencing factors of multiple adverse outcomes among schizophrenia patients using count regression models: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia patients have increased risks of adverse outcomes, including violent crime, aggressiveness, and suicide. However, studies of different adverse outcomes in schizophrenia patients are limited and the influencing factors for these outcomes need clarification by appropriate models. This study aimed to identify influencing factors of these adverse outcomes by examining and comparing different count regression models. METHODS: This study included schizophrenia patients who had at least one follow-up record in the Guangdong Mental Health Center Network Medical System during 2020. Three types of adverse outcomes were included: a) aggressiveness with police dispatch or violent crime, b) aggressiveness without police dispatch, and c) self-harm or suicide attempts. The incidence density of these adverse outcomes was investigated using the Poisson, negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models, accordingly. The best model was chosen based on goodness-of-fit tests. We further analyzed associations between the number of occurrences of adverse outcomes and sociodemographic, clinical factors with the best model. RESULTS: A total of 130,474 schizophrenia patients were enrolled. Adverse outcomes rates were reported to be less than 1% for schizophrenia patients in 2020, in Guangdong. The NB model performed the best in terms of goodness-of-fit and interpretation when fitting for the number of occurrences of aggressiveness without police dispatch, whereas the ZINB models performed better for the other two outcomes. Age, sex, and history of adverse outcomes were influencing factors shared across these adverse outcomes. Higher education and employment were protective factors for aggressive and violent behaviors. Disease onset aged ≥ 18 years served as a significant risk factor for aggressiveness without police dispatch, and self-harm or suicide attempts. Family history of mental diseases was a risk factor for self-harm or suicide attempts individually. CONCLUSIONS: NB and ZINB models were selected for fitting the number of occurrences of adverse outcomes among schizophrenia patients in our studies. Influencing factors for the incidence density of adverse outcomes included both those shared across different types and those individual to specific types. Therefore, comprehensive and customized tools in risk assessment and intervention might be necessary.

Association of neighborhood greenness with severity of hand, foot, and mouth disease.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an epidemic infectious disease in China. Relationship of neighborhood greenness with human health has been widely studied, yet its association with severe HFMD has not yet been established. METHODS: Individual HFMD cases that occurred in Guangdong province in 2010 were recruited and were categorised into mild and severe cases. Residential greenness was assessed using global land cover data. We used a case-control design (i.e., severe versus mild cases) with logistic regression models to assess the association between neighborhood greenness and HFMD severity. Effect modification was also examined. RESULTS: A total of 131,606 cases were included, of whom 130,840 were mild cases and 766 were severe cases. In an unadjusted model, HFMD severity increased with higher proportion of neighborhood greenness (odds ratio, OR = 1.029, 95%CI: 1.009-1.050). The greenness-HFMD severity association remained (OR = 1.031, 95%CI: 1.006-1.057) after adjusting for population density, demographic variables and climate variables. Both population density (Z = 4.148, P < 0.001) and relative humidity (Z = -4.297, P < 0.001) modified the association between neighborhood greenness and HFMD severity. In the stratified analyses, a protective effect (OR = 0.769, 95%CI: 0.687-0.860) of greenness on HFMD severity were found in the subgroup of population density being lower than and equal to 5 ln(no.)/km2. While in both the subgroups of population density being higher than 5, the greenness had hazard effects (subgroup of > 5 & ≤7: OR = 1.071, 95%CI: 1.024-1.120; subgroup of > 7: OR = 1.065, 95%CI: 1.034-1.097) on HFMD severity. As to relative humidity, statistically significant association between greenness and HFMD severity was only observed in the subgroup of being lower than and equal to 76% (OR = 1.059, 95%CI: 1.023-1.096). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that HFMD severity is associated with the neighborhood greenness in Guangdong, China. This study provides evidence on developing a prevention strategy of discouraging the high-risk groups from going to the crowded green spaces during the epidemic period.

A clinical model and nomogram for early prediction of gestational diabetes based on common maternal demographics and routine clinical parameters.

AIM: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on the common maternal demographics and routine clinical variables in Chinese population. METHODS: Individual information was collected from December 2018 to October 2019 by a pretested questionnaire on demographics, medical and family history, and lifestyle factors. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to establish a predictive model for GDM by variables in pre- and early pregnancy. The consistency and discriminative validity of the model were evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing and ROC curve analysis. Internal validation was appraised by fivefold cross-validation. Clinical utility was assessed by decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Total 3263 pregnant women were included with 17.2% prevalence of GDM. The model equation was: LogitP = -11.432 + 0.065 × maternal age (years) + 0.061 × pre-pregnancy BMI (kg/m2 ) + 0.055 × weight gain in early pregnancy (kg) + 0.872 × history of GDM + 0.336 × first-degree family history of diabetes +0.213 × sex hormone usages during pre- or early pregnancy + 1.089 × fasting glucose (mmol/L) + 0.409 × triglycerides (mmol/L) + 0.082 × white blood cell count (109/L) + 0.669 × positive urinary glucose. Homer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing indicated a good consistency between predictive and actual data (p = 0.586). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.720 (95% CI: 0.697 ~ 0.744). Cross-validation suggested a good internal validity of the model. A nomogram has been made to establish an easy to use scoring system for clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model of GDM exhibited well acceptable predictive ability, discriminative performance, and clinical utilities. The project was registered in clinicaltrial.gov.com with identifier of NCT03922087.

Evaluation of China's Hubei control strategy for COVID-19 epidemic: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: To fight against COVID-19, many policymakers are wavering on stricter public health interventions. Examining the different strategies both in and out of China's Hubei province, which contained the epidemic in late February 2020, could yield valuable guidance for the management of future pandemics. This study assessed the response process and estimated the time-varying effects of the Hubei control strategy. Analysis of these strategies provides insights for the design and implementation of future policy interventions. METHODS: We retrospectively compared the spread and control of COVID-19 between China's Hubei (excluding Wuhan) and non-Hubei areas using data that includes case reports, human mobility, and public health interventions from 1 January to 29 February 2020. Static and dynamic risk assessment models were developed to statistically investigate the effects of the Hubei control strategy on the virus case growth after adjusting importation risk and policy response timing with the non-Hubei strategy as a control. RESULTS: The analysis detected much higher but differential importation risk in Hubei. The response timing largely coincided with the importation risk in non-Hubei areas, but Hubei areas showed an opposite pattern. Rather than a specific intervention assessment, a comprehensive comparison showed that the Hubei control strategy implemented severe interventions characterized by unprecedentedly strict and 'monitored' self-quarantine at home, while the non-Hubei strategy included physical distancing measures to reduce contact among individuals within or between populations. In contrast with the non-Hubei control strategy, the Hubei strategy showed a much higher, non-linear and gradually diminishing protective effect with at least 3 times fewer cases. CONCLUSIONS: A risk-based control strategy was crucial to the design of an effective response to the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study demonstrates that the stricter Hubei strategy achieves a stronger controlling effect compared to other strategies. These findings highlight the health benefits and policy impacts of precise and differentiated strategies informed by constant monitoring of outbreak risk.

Moderating effect of self-efficacy on the association of intimate partner violence with risky sexual behaviors among men who have sex with men in China.

BACKGROUND: In China, men who have sex with men (MSM) face a high risk of HIV infection. Intimate partner violence (IPV) is common in this population and leads to various adverse consequences, including risky sexual behaviors, substance abuse, and poor mental health, which pose huge challenges to HIV prevention and control. METHODS: An anonymous cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate the lifetime prevalence of IPV and prevalence of risky sexual behaviors during the previous 6 months in a convenience sample of 578 MSM from 15 cities covering seven geographical divisions in mainland China. The associations between IPV and risky sexual behaviors and the moderating effect of self-efficacy on these associations were explored through univariate and multivariate regression analyses. RESULTS: The prevalence rates of IPV perpetration and victimization were 32.5% and 32.7%, respectively. The proportions of participants who reported inconsistent condom use with regular or casual partners and multiple regular or casual sexual partners were 25.8%, 8.3%, 22.2%, and 37.4%, respectively. Multiple IPV experiences were positively associated with risky sexual behaviors; for example, any IPV victimization was positively associated with multiple regular partners, adjusted odds ratio (ORa) = 1.54, 95% CI [1.02,2.32], and multiple casual partners, ORa = 1.93, 95% CI [1.33, 2.80]. Any IPV perpetration was positively associated with inconsistent condom use with regular partners, ORa = 1.58, 95% CI [1.04, 2.40], and multiple casual partners, ORa = 2.11, 95% CI [1.45, 3.06]. Self-efficacy was identified as a significant moderator of the association between multiple casual sexual partnership and emotional IPV. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, given the high prevalence of both IPV and risky sexual behaviors among Chinese MSM in this study, the inclusion of self-efficacy in interventions targeting IPV and risky sexual behaviors should be considered.

The effects of intimate relationship characteristics on unprotected anal intercourse among same-sex male couples in China: a dyadic analysis using the actor-partner interdependence model.

BACKGROUND: Unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) within the context of concurrent sexual relationship are prevalent among men who have sex with men (MSM) who have regular male sex partners and it aggravates the risk of HIV infection among this community. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of intimate relationship characteristics on UAI among MSM couples at the dyadic level. METHODS: Two hundred four MSM couples were recruited from a HIV testing clinic from April 2017 to April 2018 in Guangzhou, China. The actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) was applied for dyadic analysis. Each MSM couple was divided into the insertive role and the receptive role according to their regular anal sex role. In this context, actor effect is the impact of an MSM's intimate relationship characteristics on his own UAI, and partner effect is the impact of his partner's intimate relationship characteristics on his UAI. RESULTS: Of the 408 participants, 58.82% had UAI with regular male sex partner (UAI-RP) and 8.09% had concurrent UAI. Intimate relationship characteristics were associated with concurrent UAI, but not associated with UAI-RP. For the receptive role, his relationship investment exerted significant actor and partner effects on concurrent UAI (AOR actor = 1.31, P < 0.001; AOR partner = 1.17, P < 0.001). Meanwhile, receptive role's violence experience within relationship exerted significant actor effects on his own concurrent UAI (AOR actor = 6.43, P = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: Relationship investment and violence experience influenced concurrent UAI among MSM couples and it varied in different sex roles. Additional assistance on empowerment, relationship therapy and sexual agreement is urgently needed to reduce their high possibility on engagement of HIV-related risk behaviors.