From Fax to Secure File Transfer Protocol: The 25-Year Evolution of Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance in England.

The purpose of syndromic surveillance is to provide early warning of public health incidents, real-time situational awareness during incidents and emergencies, and reassurance of the lack of impact on the population, particularly during mass gatherings. The United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) currently coordinates a real-time syndromic surveillance service that encompasses 6 national syndromic surveillance systems reporting on daily health care usage across England. Each working day, UKHSA analyzes syndromic data from over 200,000 daily patient encounters with the National Health Service, monitoring over 140 unique syndromic indicators, risk assessing over 50 daily statistical exceedances, and taking and recommending public health action on these daily. This English syndromic surveillance service had its origins as a small exploratory pilot in a single region of England in 1999 involving a new pilot telehealth service, initially reporting only on "cold or flu" calls. This pilot showed the value of syndromic surveillance in England, providing advanced warning of the start of seasonal influenza activity over existing laboratory-based surveillance systems. Since this initial pilot, a program of real-time syndromic surveillance has evolved from the single-system, -region, -indicator pilot (using manual data transfer methods) to an all-hazard, multisystem, automated national service. The suite of systems now monitors a wide range of syndromes, from acute respiratory illness to diarrhea to cardiac conditions, and is widely used in routine public health surveillance and for monitoring seasonal respiratory disease and incidents such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we describe the 25-year evolution of the English syndromic surveillance system, focusing on the expansion and improvements in data sources and data management, the technological and digital enablers, and novel methods of data analytics and visualization.

Describing the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using syndromic surveillance systems.

BACKGROUND: Since the end of January 2020, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has been responsible for a global health crisis. In England a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been introduced throughout the pandemic, including guidelines on healthcare attendance (for example, promoting remote consultations), increased handwashing and social distancing. These interventions are likely to have impacted the incidence of non-COVID-19 conditions as well as healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic Surveillance Systems offer the ability to monitor trends in healthcare usage over time. METHODS: This study describes the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using a range of syndromic indicators including eye conditions, mumps, fractures, herpes zoster and cardiac conditions. Data from the syndromic surveillance systems monitored by Public Health England were used to describe the number of contacts with NHS 111, general practitioner (GP) In Hours (GPIH) and Out-of-Hours (GPOOH), Ambulance and Emergency Department (ED) services over comparable periods before and during the pandemic. RESULTS: The peak pandemic period in 2020 (weeks 13-20), compared to the same period in 2019, displayed on average a 12% increase in NHS 111 calls, an 11% decrease in GPOOH consultations, and a 49% decrease in ED attendances. In the GP In Hours system, conjunctivitis consultations decreased by 64% and mumps consultations by 31%. There was a 49% reduction in attendance at EDs for fractures, and there was no longer any weekend increase in ED fracture attendances, with similar attendance patterns observed across each day of the week. There was a decrease in the number of ED attendances with diagnoses of myocardial ischaemia. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically impacted healthcare utilisation for non-COVID-19 conditions, due to a combination of a probable decrease in incidence of certain conditions and changes in healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic surveillance has a valuable role in describing and understanding these trends.

The COVID-19 pandemic: a new challenge for syndromic surveillance.

The COVID-19 pandemic is exerting major pressures on society, health and social care services and science. Understanding the progression and current impact of the pandemic is fundamental to planning, management and mitigation of future impact on the population. Surveillance is the core function of any public health system, and a multi-component surveillance system for COVID-19 is essential to understand the burden across the different strata of any health system and the population. Many countries and public health bodies utilise 'syndromic surveillance' (using real-time, often non-specific symptom/preliminary diagnosis information collected during routine healthcare provision) to supplement public health surveillance programmes. The current COVID-19 pandemic has revealed a series of unprecedented challenges to syndromic surveillance including: the impact of media reporting during early stages of the pandemic; changes in healthcare-seeking behaviour resulting from government guidance on social distancing and accessing healthcare services; and changes in clinical coding and patient management systems. These have impacted on the presentation of syndromic outputs, with changes in denominators creating challenges for the interpretation of surveillance data. Monitoring changes in healthcare utilisation is key to interpreting COVID-19 surveillance data, which can then be used to better understand the impact of the pandemic on the population. Syndromic surveillance systems have had to adapt to encompass these changes, whilst also innovating by taking opportunities to work with data providers to establish new data feeds and develop new COVID-19 indicators. These developments are supporting the current public health response to COVID-19, and will also be instrumental in the continued and future fight against the disease.

Correcting for day of the week and public holiday effects: improving a national daily syndromic surveillance service for detecting public health threats.

BACKGROUND: As service provision and patient behaviour varies by day, healthcare data used for public health surveillance can exhibit large day of the week effects. These regular effects are further complicated by the impact of public holidays. Real-time syndromic surveillance requires the daily analysis of a range of healthcare data sources, including family doctor consultations (called general practitioners, or GPs, in the UK). Failure to adjust for such reporting biases during analysis of syndromic GP surveillance data could lead to misinterpretations including false alarms or delays in the detection of outbreaks. The simplest smoothing method to remove a day of the week effect from daily time series data is a 7-day moving average. Public Health England developed the working day moving average in an attempt also to remove public holiday effects from daily GP data. However, neither of these methods adequately account for the combination of day of the week and public holiday effects. METHODS: The extended working day moving average was developed. This is a further data-driven method for adding a smooth trend curve to a time series graph of daily healthcare data, that aims to take both public holiday and day of the week effects into account. It is based on the assumption that the number of people seeking healthcare services is a combination of illness levels/severity and the ability or desire of patients to seek healthcare each day. The extended working day moving average was compared to the seven-day and working day moving averages through application to data from two syndromic indicators from the GP in-hours syndromic surveillance system managed by Public Health England. RESULTS: The extended working day moving average successfully smoothed the syndromic healthcare data by taking into account the combined day of the week and public holiday effects. In comparison, the seven-day and working day moving averages were unable to account for all these effects, which led to misleading smoothing curves. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study make it possible to identify trends and unusual activity in syndromic surveillance data from GP services in real-time independently of the effects caused by day of the week and public holidays, thereby improving the public health action resulting from the analysis of these data.

Using real-time syndromic surveillance to assess the health impact of the 2013 heatwave in England.

Heatwaves are a seasonal threat to public health. During July 2013 England experienced a heatwave; we used a suite of syndromic surveillance systems to monitor the impact of the heatwave. Significant increases in heatstroke and sunstroke were observed during 7-10 July 2013. Syndromic surveillance provided an innovative and effective service, supporting heatwave planning and providing early warning of the impact of extreme heat thereby improving the public health response to heatwaves.

Estimating the Impact of Air Pollution on Healthcare-Seeking Behaviour by Applying a Difference-in-Differences Method to Syndromic Surveillance Data.

Syndromic surveillance data were used to estimate the direct impact of air pollution on healthcare-seeking behaviour, between 1 April 2012 and 31 December 2017. A difference-in-differences approach was used to control for spatial and temporal variations that were not due to air pollution and a meta-analysis was conducted to combine estimates from different pollution periods. Significant increases were found in general practitioner (GP) out-of-hours consultations, including a 98% increase (2-386, 95% confidence interval) in acute bronchitis and a 16% (3-30) increase in National Health Service (NHS) 111 calls for eye problems. However, the numbers involved are small; for instance, roughly one extra acute bronchitis consultation in a local authority on a day when air quality is poor. These results provide additional information for healthcare planners on the impacts of localised poor air quality. However, further work is required to identify the separate impact of different pollutants.

Mental Health Presentations Across Health Care Settings During the First 9 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic in England: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented impact on the day-to-day lives of people, with several features potentially adversely affecting mental health. There is growing evidence of the size of the impact of COVID-19 on mental health, but much of this is from ongoing population surveys using validated mental health scores. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the impact of the pandemic and control measures on mental health conditions presenting to a spectrum of national health care services monitored using real-time syndromic surveillance in England. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational descriptive study of mental health presentations (those calling the national medical helpline, National Health Service [NHS] 111; consulting general practitioners [GPs] in and out-of-hours; calling ambulance services; and attending emergency departments) from January 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020. Estimates for the impact of lockdown measures were provided using an interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: Mental health presentations showed a marked decrease during the early stages of the pandemic. Postlockdown, attendances for mental health conditions reached higher than prepandemic levels across most systems-a rise of 10% compared to that expected for NHS 111 and 21% for GP out-of-hours service-while the number of consultations to GP in-hours service was 13% lower compared to the same time previous year. Increases were observed in calls to NHS 111 for sleep problems. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses showed marked changes in the health care attendances and prescribing for common mental health conditions across a spectrum of health care provision, with some of these changes persisting. The reasons for such changes are likely to be complex and multifactorial. The impact of the pandemic on mental health may not be fully understood for some time, and therefore, these syndromic indicators should continue to be monitored.

Study into COVID-19 Crisis Using Primary Care Mental Health Consultations and Prescriptions Data.

The effect of the 2020 pandemic, and of the national measures introduced to control it, is not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to investigate how different types of primary care data can help quantify the effect of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis on mental health. A retrospective cohort study investigated changes in weekly counts of mental health consultations and prescriptions. The data were extracted from one the UK's largest primary care databases between January 1st 2015 and October 31st 2020 (end of follow-up). The 2020 trends were compared to the 2015-19 average with 95% confidence intervals using longitudinal plots and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). A total number of 504 practices (7,057,447 patients) contributed data. During the period of national restrictions, on average, there were 31% (3957 ± 269, p < 0.001) fewer events and 6% (4878 ± 1108, p < 0.001) more prescriptions per week as compared to the 2015-19 average. The number of events was recovering, increasing by 75 (± 29, p = 0.012) per week. Prescriptions returned to the 2015-19 levels by the end of the study (p = 0.854). The significant reduction in the number of consultations represents part of the crisis. Future service planning and quality improvements are needed to reduce the negative effect on health and healthcare.

Estimating primary care attendance rates for fever in infants after meningococcal B vaccination in England using national syndromic surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In September 2015, the United Kingdom became the first country to introduce the multicomponent group B meningococcal vaccine (4CMenB) into a national infant immunisation programme. In early clinical trials 51-61% of infants developed a fever when 4CMenB was administered with other routine vaccines. Whilst administration of prophylactic paracetamol is advised, up to 3% of parents may seek medical advice for fever following vaccination. We used research-level general practitioner consultations to identify any increase in attendances for all-cause fever in vaccine-eligible infants following 4CMenB introduction in England. METHODS: Consultations for infant all-cause fever in the year following the vaccine introduction were identified from The Phoenix Partnership (TPP) ResearchOne general practice database using Read (CTV3) codes. Average daily consultation rates and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated for vaccine-eligible age groups and compared to the two years preceding vaccine introduction. The difference between pre- and post-vaccine all-cause fever consultations was estimated. RESULTS: All-cause fever consultations in vaccine-eligible 7-10 week olds were 1.6-fold higher (IRR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.22-2.05) compared to the two previous years and 1.5-fold higher (IRR 1.47; 95% CI, 1.17-1.86) in 15-18 week-olds. There were no significant differences in 0-6 or 11-14 week-olds. Applying the difference between pre- and post-vaccine consultation rates to the 4CMenB vaccine-eligible age groups across England estimated 1825 additional fever consultations in the year following 4CMenB introduction. CONCLUSIONS: We found a small but significant difference in all-cause fever consultation rates in vaccine-eligible infants who would have received 4CMenB with other vaccines.

An Observational Study Using English Syndromic Surveillance Data Collected During the 2012 London Olympics - What did Syndromic Surveillance Show and What Can We Learn for Future Mass-gathering Events?

Introduction In preparation for the London 2012 Olympic Games, existing syndromic surveillance systems operating in England were expanded to include daily general practitioner (GP) out-of-hours (OOH) contacts and emergency department (ED) attendances at sentinel sites (the GP OOH and ED syndromic surveillance systems: GPOOHS and EDSSS). Hypothesis/Problem The further development of syndromic surveillance systems in time for the London 2012 Olympic Games provided a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of a large mass-gathering event on public health and health services as monitored in near real-time by syndromic surveillance of GP OOH contacts and ED attendances. This can, in turn, aid the planning of future events. METHODS: The EDSSS and GPOOHS data for London and England from July 13 to August 26, 2012, and a similar period in 2013, were divided into three distinct time periods: pre-Olympic period (July 13-26, 2012); Olympic period (July 27 to August 12); and post-Olympic period (August 13-26, 2012). Time series of selected syndromic indicators in 2012 and 2013 were plotted, compared, and risk assessed by members of the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team (ReSST) in Public Health England (PHE). Student's t test was used to test any identified changes in pattern of attendance. RESULTS: Very few differences were found between years or between the weeks which preceded and followed the Olympics. One significant exception was noted: a statistically significant increase (P value = .0003) in attendances for "chemicals, poisons, and overdoses, including alcohol" and "acute alcohol intoxication" were observed in London EDs coinciding with the timing of the Olympic opening ceremony (9:00 pm July 27, 2012 to 01:00 am July 28, 2012). CONCLUSIONS: Syndromic surveillance was able to provide near to real-time monitoring and could identify hourly changes in patterns of presentation during the London 2012 Olympic Games. Reassurance can be provided to planners of future mass-gathering events that there was no discernible impact in overall attendances to sentinel EDs or GP OOH services in the host country. The increase in attendances for alcohol-related causes during the opening ceremony, however, may provide an opportunity for future public health interventions. Todkill D , Hughes HE , Elliot AJ , Morbey RA , Edeghere O , Harcourt S , Hughes T , Endericks T , McCloskey B , Catchpole M , Ibbotson S , Smith G . An observational study using English syndromic surveillance data collected during the 2012 London Olympics - what did syndromic surveillance show and what can we learn for future mass-gathering events? Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(6):628-634.

Developing a national primary care-based early warning system for health protection--a surveillance tool for the future? Analysis of routinely collected data.

The increasing threat of infections with pandemic potential such as influenza has focussed attention on the information needed to inform those managing a pandemic. The Health Protection Agency, Nottingham University and EMIS have developed a new national health protection surveillance system using QRESEARCH, an established primary care-derived database, to provide timely and local information on trends in community illness and prescribing. This article describes the first year of the surveillance project. Data on consultations and prescribing were extracted from routinely generated computerized consultation records between November 2004 and December 2005. Weekly consultation and prescribing rates for a range of conditions including influenza-like illness and prescription of anti-viral drugs for influenza and vomiting were developed as 'key indicators'. These indicators were presented in a weekly bulletin showing data to strategic health authority level for use by those working in public health. The particular value of this scheme is the ability to produce timely data on illness to local level and to link prescribing to morbidity. The data were used 'real time' to reassure about lack of illness following the Buncefield Fuel Depot incident. This scheme is being further developed to provide daily local influenza-related information needed in an influenza pandemic.

Inequalities in uptake of influenza vaccine by deprivation and risk group: time trends analysis.

The aim of this study was to investigate influenza immunisation rates in the United Kingdom over a 6-year period and examine trends in uptake by deprivation, ethnicity, rurality and risk group. Influenza immunisation rates were determined from 1999/2000 to 2004/2005 using a large general practice database (QRESEARCH). There was a relative increase of 59.5% in the overall influenza vaccination rate over the study period. In 2004/2005, 70.2% of all patients aged 65 and over were vaccinated, compared with 29.3% of patients in a clinical risk group aged less than 65. Males, patients from deprived areas and from areas with a higher proportion of non-White residents had slightly lower vaccination rates overall. This general practice based study suggests that substantial increases in influenza vaccination rates have occurred across all risk groups, but that increased focus should be given to immunising high-risk patients below the age of 65.