Updating age-specific contact structures to match evolving demography in a dynamic mathematical model of tuberculosis vaccination.

We investigated the effects of updating age-specific social contact matrices to match evolving demography on vaccine impact estimates. We used a dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis in India as a case study. We modelled four incremental methods to update contact matrices over time, where each method incorporated its predecessor: fixed contact matrix (M0), preserved contact reciprocity (M1), preserved contact assortativity (M2), and preserved average contacts per individual (M3). We updated the contact matrices of a deterministic compartmental model of tuberculosis transmission, calibrated to epidemiologic data between 2000 and 2019 derived from India. We additionally calibrated the M0, M2, and M3 models to the 2050 TB incidence rate projected by the calibrated M1 model. We stratified age into three groups, children (<15y), adults (≥15y, <65y), and the elderly (≥65y), using World Population Prospects demographic data, between which we applied POLYMOD-derived social contact matrices. We simulated an M72-AS01E-like tuberculosis vaccine delivered from 2027 and estimated the per cent TB incidence rate reduction (IRR) in 2050 under each update method. We found that vaccine impact estimates in all age groups remained relatively stable between the M0-M3 models, irrespective of vaccine-targeting by age group. The maximum difference in impact, observed following adult-targeted vaccination, was 7% in the elderly, in whom we observed IRRs of 19% (uncertainty range 13-32), 20% (UR 13-31), 22% (UR 14-37), and 26% (UR 18-38) following M0, M1, M2 and M3 updates, respectively. We found that model-based TB vaccine impact estimates were relatively insensitive to demography-matched contact matrix updates in an India-like demographic and epidemiologic scenario. Current model-based TB vaccine impact estimates may be reasonably robust to the lack of contact matrix updates, but further research is needed to confirm and generalise this finding.

Affordability of Adult Tuberculosis Vaccination in India and China: A Dynamic Transmission Model-Based Analysis.

New tuberculosis vaccines have made substantial progress in the development pipeline. Previous modelling suggests that adolescent/adult mass vaccination may cost-effectively contribute towards achieving global tuberculosis control goals. These analyses have not considered the budgetary feasibility of vaccine programmes. We estimate the maximum total cost that the public health sectors in India and China should expect to pay to introduce a M72/AS01E-like vaccine deemed cost-effective at country-specific willingness to pay thresholds for cost-effectiveness. To estimate the total disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by the vaccination programme, we simulated a 50% efficacy vaccine providing 10-years of protection in post-infection populations between 2027 and 2050 in India and China using a dynamic transmission model of M. tuberculosis. We investigated two mass vaccination strategies, both delivered every 10-years achieving 70% coverage: Vaccinating adults and adolescents (age ≥10y), or only the most efficient 10-year age subgroup (defined as greatest DALYs averted per vaccine given). We used country-specific thresholds for cost-effectiveness to estimate the maximum total cost (Cmax) a government should be willing to pay for each vaccination strategy. Adult/adolescent vaccination resulted in a Cmax of $21 billion (uncertainty interval [UI]: 16-27) in India, and $15B (UI:12-29) in China at willingness to pay thresholds of $264/DALY averted and $3650/DALY averted, respectively. Vaccinating the highest efficiency age group (India: 50-59y; China: 60-69y) resulted in a Cmax of $5B (UI:4-6) in India and $6B (UI:4-7) in China. Mass vaccination against tuberculosis of all adults and adolescents, deemed cost-effective, will likely impose a substantial budgetary burden. Targeted tuberculosis vaccination, deemed cost-effective, may represent a more affordable approach.

Long-term neurological and healthcare burden of adults with Japanese encephalitis: A nationwide study 2000-2015.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the healthcare utilization, economic burden, and long-term neurological complications and mortality of an adult population with Japanese encephalitis (JE). METHODS: This study utilized two nationwide datasets in Taiwan: the Notifiable Disease Dataset of confirmed cases from the Centers for Disease Control to identify JE patients, and the National Health Insurance Research Database to obtain patients' healthcare utilization. Survival analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors associated with the all-cause mortality of patients. RESULTS: This study included 352 adult cases with JE (aged≥20 years). The mean age of JE patients was 45 years. Stroke (event rate: 3.49/100 person-years) was the most common neurological complication, followed by epilepsy/convulsions (3.13/100 person-years), encephalopathy/delirium (2.20/100 person-years), and parkinsonism (1.97/100 person-years). Among the 336 hospitalized patients at JE diagnosis, 58.33% required intensive care. Among 79 patients who died following JE diagnosis, 48.84% of death events occurred within the year of diagnosis. The medical costs increased considerably at JE diagnosis and subsequent-year costs remained significantly higher than the costs before diagnosis (p<0.05). Having a four-dose JE vaccination (i.e., born after 1976) versus no JE vaccination history (i.e., born before 1963) was significantly associated with lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 0.221 [95% confidence interval: 0.067, 0.725]). Comorbid diabetes and incident epilepsy/convulsion events significantly increased the mortality risk by 2.47- and 1.85-fold, respectively (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: A considerable medical burden associated with JE was observed in affected adults, even in the years following JE diagnosis. Vaccination should be considered to prevent this sporadic, but lethal, viral infection.