Optimal anthropometric measures to predict incidence of coronary heart disease in adults in Turkey.

Background: We aimed to identify the most suited anthropometric measure for the prediction of risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) among the Turkish population. Methods: We collected data on body mass index, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and a body shape index. We analysed these using both C-statistics and Cox regression models adjusted for age, systolic blood pressure, glucose and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol for assessing risk of incident CHD among 3203 Turkish Adult Risk Factor (TARF) study participants (mean [SD] age 48.5 [11] years). Results: Over a mean follow-up of 9.93 years, new CHD developed in 573 individuals. Multi-adjusted C-statistics were highest for WHtR followed by WC, in both sexes. Except WHR, all measures were significantly associated with incident CHD in combined sexes in the full model. There was a sex difference, however, in the mediation of the three risk factors for adiposity; these attenuated hazard ratios (HRs) in males, whereas in females, significant prediction of incident CHD persisted for each measure. WC (HR 1.36 [95% CI 1.13; 1.64]), followed by WHtR (HR 1.24 [95% CI 1.10; 1.40]), were in combined sex, as in females, the most informative surrogates of adiposity. Hip circumference did not protect, but rather conferred modest CHD risk, especially in females, rendering a low utility of predictive value for WHR. The CHD risk curve did not have a J shape. Conclusions: WC is the most suitable of five adiposity surrogates for CHD risk among Turkish adults, while in males, unmediated adiposity risk was similarly identified by WHtR. Retention of the large part of CHD risk in females perhaps reflects the underlying autoimmune activation.

Evaluation of Naples prognostic score to predict long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism.

Background: The Naples prognostic score (NPS), which reflects the inflammatory and nutritional status of patients, is often used to determine prognosis in cancer patients. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term prognostic value of the NPS in acute pulmonary embolism (APE) patients. Methods: Two hundred thirty-nine patients diagnosed with APE were divided into two groups according to their NPS, and long-term mortality was compared. Results: The long-term mortality was observed in 38 patients out of 293 patients in the mean follow-up of 24 months. Multivariate analysis showed that NPS as a categorical parameter and NPS as a numeric parameter were independent predictors of long-term mortality. Conclusion: This study highlights that NPS may have the potential to predict long-term mortality in APE patients.

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Admission triglyceride-glucose index is predictor of long-term mortality and appropriate implantable cardiac defibrillator therapy in patients with heart failure.

Background: In this study, the main aim was to evaluate the relation of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index to long-term mortality and proper shock therapy in patients with an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) implanted for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Methods: This retrospective study group consisted of 773 patients treated with ICD for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. The long-term prognostic effect of the TyG index among tertiles was evaluated regarding mortality and appropriate ICD therapy. Results: In the adjusted model, the mortality rates were 14.0% (hazard ratio: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.42-6.88) in tertile 2 and 23.3% (hazard ratio: 3.88; 95% CI: 1.84-14.38) in tertile 3. Conclusion: The TyG index was found to be an independent predictive marker for both long-term mortality and appropriate ICD therapy.

Algorithm for predicting CHD death risk in Turkish adults: conventional factors contribute only moderately in women.

OBJECTIVE: To assist the management strategy of individuals, we determined an algorithm for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) death in Turkish adults with a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). METHODS: The risk of CHD death was estimated in 3054 middle-aged adults, followed over 9.08±4.2 years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict risk. Discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. RESULTS: CHD death was identified in 233 subjects. In multivariable analysis, the serum high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) level was not predictive in men and the non-HDL-C level was not predictive in women. Age, presence of diabetes, systolic blood pressure ≥160 mm Hg, smoking habit, and low physical activity were predictors in both sexes. The exclusion of coronary disease at baseline did not change the risk estimates materially. Using an algorithm of the 7 stated variables, individuals in the highest category of risk score showed a 19- to 50-fold higher spread in the absolute risk of death from CHD than those in the second lowest category. C-index of the model using age alone was as high as 0.774 in men and 0.836 in women (p<0.001 each), while the incorporation of 6 conventional risk factors contributed to a C-index of 0.058 in males and 0.042 in females. CONCLUSION: In a middle-aged population with prevalent MetS, men disclosed anticipated risk parameters (except for high HDL-C levels) as determinants of the risk of CHD death. On the other hand, serum non-HDL-C levels and moderate systolic hypertension were not relevant in women. The moderate contribution of conventional risk factors (beyond age) to the estimation of the risk of CHD death in women is consistent with the operation of autoimmune activation.

Can we use plasma hyperosmolality as a predictor of mortality for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of plasma osmolality with all-cause mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated with a primary percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS: This study included 3748 patients (mean age 58.3±11.8 years, men 81%) with STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention. The following formula was used to measure the plasma osmolality at admission: osmolality=1.86×sodium (mmol/l)+glucose (mg/dl)/18+BUN (mg/dl)/2.8+9. RESULTS: The patients were followed up for a mean period of 22±10 months. Patients with higher plasma osmolality had 3.7 times higher in-hospital (95% confidence interval: 2.7-5.1) and 3.2 times higher long-term (95% confidence interval: 2.5-4.1) all-cause mortality rates than patients with lower plasma osmolality. CONCLUSION: Plasma osmolality was found to be a predictor of both in-hospital and long-term all-cause mortality. Hence, plasma osmolality can be used to detect high-risk patients in STEMI.

Female and urban participants demonstrate an adverse trend in overall mortality in Turkey - and a report on the TARF survey 2016.

OBJECTIVE: This study is an examination of 1) overall mortality trend in the Turkish Adult Risk Factor (TARF) study stratified by sex and place of residence, and 2) brief report on main aspects of the 2016 survey. METHODS: The period of last 18 years was divided into 2 for trend analysis of data. Required information on deaths was obtained. Baseline age ≥40 years at the beginning of each period was the inclusion criterion. Cox regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Among over 2500 participants in each, deaths were recorded in 281 and 334 individuals in Periods 1 and 2, respectively, and baseline mean age was 54.6 years and 56.4 years, respectively, in each period. Age-adjusted hazard ratio for mortality in Period 2 remained virtually the same for rural males, rose to borderline significance for urban males and rural females (p=0.06, p=0.09), and increased 1.72-fold for urban females (p=0.006), as compared to Period 1. Whereas males gained an average of 3.8 years of survival in the later period compared with the earlier period, females gained only 1.8 years. This narrowed the difference in mean age at death in favor of women from 2.5 years to 0.5 year. Of 1144 participants to be surveyed in the TARF 2016, 48 were lost to follow-up, 695 were examined, and 39 participants were ascertained to be deceased. In 362 cases, verbal information was obtained regarding health status. CONCLUSION: Gain in survival in Turkish women has distinctly stagnated compared with men, and hazard of death has risen significantly for women and urban residents in the past decade, suggesting interaction between female sex and urban residence. Both phenomena require recognition and adoption of appropriate measures.

The association of the coronary thrombus burden with all-cause mortality and major cardiac events in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients treated with tirofiban.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of the coronary thrombus burden with all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients treated with 'in-cath lab' (downstream) high-dose bolus tirofiban. METHODS: This study included 2452 patients with STEMI treated with a primary percutaneous coronary intervention. All glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor inhibitor (GPI) (tirofiban) infusions were started in the catheterization laboratory according to the coronary thrombus burden; tirofiban was not administered to patients who did not have coronary thrombus burden. All patients with small, moderate, or large thrombus burden received tirofiban therapy. The primary study endpoint was the incidence of all-cause mortality. The secondary study endpoints were major bleeding and MACE, which included all-cause death, nonfatal acute coronary syndrome, and target lesion revascularization. RESULTS: The patients were followed up for a mean period of 28.3±10.4 months. The groups showed similar in-hospital and long-term event rates (MACE, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality). The 3-year Kaplan-Meier overall survivals for no thrombus, small thrombus, moderate thrombus, and large thrombus were 91.9, 92.6, 92.3, and 89.5%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite the fact that the large coronary thrombus was found to be a predictor of MACE and mortality in many previous studies, we found that the large thrombus was not associated with MACE or in-hospital mortality or long-term mortality. This can be an effect of downstream GPI therapy. We suggest the use of downstream GPI therapy for STEMI patients with large coronary thrombus without an increased risk of bleeding.