A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease.

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, which are significantly correlated with socioeconomic, environmental and ecological factors1. Studies have shown that infectious disease risk is modified by changes to biodiversity2-6, climate change7-11, chemical pollution12-14, landscape transformations15-20 and species introductions21. However, it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. Here we amassed a dataset from the literature that contains 2,938 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,497 host-parasite combinations, including plant, animal and human hosts. We found that biodiversity loss, chemical pollution, climate change and introduced species are associated with increases in disease-related end points or harm, whereas urbanization is associated with decreases in disease end points. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation and forest fragmentation are comparatively unimportant or idiosyncratic as drivers of disease. Overall, these results are consistent across human and non-human diseases. Nevertheless, context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were found to be common. The findings uncovered by this meta-analysis should help target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. Specifically, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, managing ecosystem health, and preventing biological invasions and biodiversity loss could help to reduce the burden of plant, animal and human diseases, especially when coupled with improvements to social and economic determinants of health.

Dispersal evolution in temporally variable environments: implications for plant range dynamics.

Dispersal-the movement of an individual from the site of birth to a different site for reproduction-is an ecological and evolutionary driver of species ranges that shapes patterns of colonization, connectivity, gene flow, and adaptation. In plants, the traits that influence dispersal often vary within and among species, are heritable, and evolve in response to the fitness consequences of moving through heterogeneous landscapes. Spatial and temporal variation in the quality and quantity of habitat are important sources of selection on dispersal strategies across species ranges. While recent reviews have evaluated the interactions between spatial variation in habitat and dispersal dynamics, the extent to which geographic variation in temporal variability can also shape range-wide patterns in dispersal traits has not been synthesized. In this paper, we summarize key predictions from metapopulation models that evaluate how dispersal evolves in response to spatial and temporal habitat variability. Next, we compile empirical data that quantify temporal variability in plant demography and patterns of dispersal trait variation across species ranges to evaluate the hypothesis that higher temporal variability favors increased dispersal at plant range limits. We found some suggestive evidence supporting this hypothesis while more generally identifying a major gap in empirical work evaluating plant metapopulation dynamics across species ranges and geographic variation in dispersal traits. To address this gap, we propose several future research directions that would advance our understanding of the interplay between spatiotemporal variability and dispersal trait variation in shaping the dynamics of current and future species ranges.

Long-stay forensic psychiatric inpatients in the Republic of Ireland: aggregated needs assessment.

OBJECTIVES: To profile the current cohort of forensic psychiatric inpatients in the Republic of Ireland, comparing psychiatric healthcare and placement needs of long-stay patients with those more recently admitted. METHOD: All forensic psychiatric inpatients in the Central Mental Hospital, Dundrum on a census date were included in the study. Patients and key worker were interviewed using a standardised schedule and validated research instruments. Static and dynamic risk factors for violence including demographic, diagnostic and legal characteristics were supplemented by detailed chart review. Standardised anonymised case vignettes were presented to panels of forensic and community psychiatric multidisciplinary teams who assessed current and future treatment and placement requirements for the cohort. RESULTS: There were 88 forensic psychiatric inpatients on the census date. Forty-three had lengths of stay over two years (17 over 20 years). Both patient groups were predominantly males with severe mental illness and histories of violent offending. The majority of the long-stay group were receiving regular parole and this group had lower levels of positive symptoms and comorbid substance misuse disorders. Significant gaps in existing rehabilitation inputs were identified. Almost half the long-stay patients were inappropriately placed. Thirty per cent of long-stay patients could be safely transferred to lower levels of security within six months and 63% within three years. CONCLUSIONS: Holding patients in conditions of excessive security impedes rehabilitation and has considerable human rights implications. Almost half of long-stay forensic psychiatric patients in Ireland are inappropriately placed. Barriers to discharge include legislative inadequacies, lack of local low-secure facilities and under-resourcing of community psychiatric services. Such barriers lead to inappropriate utilisation of limited resources and limit access to secure facilities for higher-risk mentally disordered offenders. These findings are of particular relevance in the context of proposed new insanity legislation.