Isolating the effect of confounding from the observed survival benefit of screening participants - a methodological approach illustrated by data from the German mammography screening programme.

BACKGROUND: Mammography screening programmes (MSP) aim to reduce breast cancer mortality by shifting diagnoses to earlier stages. However, it is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of current MSP because analyses can only rely on observational data, comparing women who participate in screening with women who do not. These comparisons are subject to several biases: one of the most important is self-selection into the MSP, which introduces confounding and is difficult to control for. Here, we propose an approach to quantify confounding based on breast cancer survival analyses using readily available routine data sources. METHODS: Using data from the Cancer Registry of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, we estimate the relative contribution of confounding to the observed survival benefit of participants of the German MSP. This is accomplished by comparing non-participants, participants with screen-detected and participants with interval breast cancers for the endpoints "death from breast cancer" and "death from all causes other than breast cancer" - the latter being assumed to be unrelated to any MSP effect. By using different contrasts, we eliminate the effects of stage shift, lead and length time bias. The association of breast cancer detection mode with survival is analysed using Cox models in 68,230 women, aged 50-69 years, with breast cancer diagnosed in 2006-2014 and followed up until 2018. RESULTS: The hazard of dying from breast cancer was lower in participants with screen-detected cancer than in non-participants (HR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.20-0.22), but biased by lead and length time bias, and confounding. When comparing participants with interval cancers and non-participants, the survival advantage was considerably smaller (HR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.58-0.66), due to the elimination of stage shift and lead time bias. Finally, considering only mortality from causes other than breast cancer in the latter comparison, length time bias was minimised, but a survival advantage was still present (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.56-0.70), which we attribute to confounding. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that, in addition to stage shift, lead and length time bias, confounding is an essential component when comparing the survival of MSP participants and non-participants. We further show that the confounding effect can be quantified without explicit knowledge of potential confounders by using a negative control outcome.

Breast Density and Breast Cancer Screening with Digital Breast Tomosynthesis: A TOSYMA Trial Subanalysis.

Background Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) plus synthesized mammography (SM) reduces the diagnostic pitfalls of tissue superimposition, which is a limitation of digital mammography (DM). Purpose To compare the invasive breast cancer detection rate (iCDR) of DBT plus SM versus DM screening for different breast density categories. Materials and Methods An exploratory subanalysis of the TOmosynthesis plus SYnthesized MAmmography (TOSYMA) study, a randomized, controlled, multicenter, parallel-group trial recruited within the German mammography screening program from July 2018 to December 2020. Women aged 50-69 years were randomly assigned (1:1) to DBT plus SM or DM screening examination. Breast density categories A-D were visually assessed according to the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System Atlas. Exploratory analyses were performed of the iCDR in both study arms and stratified by breast density, and odds ratios and 95% CIs were determined. Results A total of 49 762 women allocated to DBT plus SM and 49 796 allocated to DM (median age, 57 years [IQR, 53-62 years]) were included. In the DM arm, the iCDR was 3.6 per 1000 screening examinations in category A (almost entirely fatty) (16 of 4475 screenings), 4.3 in category B (102 of 23 534 screenings), 6.1 in category C (116 of 19 051 screenings), and 2.3 in category D (extremely dense breasts) (six of 2629 screenings). The iCDR in the DBT plus SM arm was 2.7 per 1000 screening examinations in category A (12 of 4439 screenings), 6.9 in category B (154 of 22 328 screenings), 8.3 in category C (156 of 18 772 screenings), and 8.1 in category D (32 of 3940 screenings). The odds ratio for DM versus DBT plus SM in category D was 3.8 (95% CI: 1.5, 11.1). The invasive cancers detected with DBT plus SM were most often grade 2 tumors; in category C, it was 58% (91 of 156 invasive cancers), and in category D, it was 47% (15 of 32 invasive cancers). Conclusion The TOmosynthesis plus SYnthesized MAmmography trial revealed higher invasive cancer detection rates with digital breast tomosynthesis plus synthesized mammography than digital mammography in dense breasts, relatively and absolutely most marked among women with extremely dense breasts. ClinicalTrials.gov registration no.: NCT03377036 © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Lee and Moy in this issue.

Digital Breast Tomosynthesis versus Digital Mammography for Detection of Early-Stage Cancers Stratified by Grade: A TOSYMA Subanalysis.

Background Breast cancer screening with digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) plus synthesized mammography (SM) increases invasive tumor detection compared with digital mammography (DM). However, it is not known how the prognostic characteristics of the cancers detected with the two screening approaches differ. Purpose To compare invasive breast cancers detected with DBT plus SM (test arm) versus DM (control arm) screening with regard to tumor stage, histologic grade, patient age, and breast density. Materials and Methods This exploratory subanalysis of the Tomosynthesis plus Synthesized Mammography (TOSYMA) study, which is a multicenter randomized controlled trial embedded in the German mammography screening program, recruited women aged 50-70 years from July 2018 to December 2020. It compared invasive cancer detection rates (iCDRs), rate differences, and odds ratios (ORs) between the arms stratified by Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) stage (I vs II-IV), histologic grade (1 vs 2 or 3), age group (50-59 vs 60-70 years), and Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System categories of breast density (A or B vs C or D). Results In total, 49 462 (median age, 57 years [IQR, 53-62 years]) and 49 669 (median age, 57 years [IQR, 53-62 years]) participants were allocated to DBT plus SM and DM screening, respectively. The iCDR of stage I tumors with DBT plus SM was 51.6 per 10 000 women (255 of 49 462) and with DM it was 30.0 per 10 000 women (149 of 49 669). DBT plus SM depicted more stage I tumors with grade 2 or 3 (166 of 49 462, 33.7 per 10 000 women) than DM (106 of 49 669, 21.3 per 10 000 women; rate difference, +12.3 per 10 000 women [95% CI: 0.3, 24.9]; OR, 1.6 [95% CI: 0.9, 2.7]). DBT plus SM achieved the highest iCDR of stage I tumors with grade 2 or 3 among women aged 60-70 years with dense breasts (41 of 7364, 55.4 per 10 000 women; rate difference, +21.6 per 10 000 women [95% CI: -21.1, 64.3]; OR, 1.6 [95% CI: 0.6, 4.5]). Conclusion DBT plus SM screening appears to lead to higher detection of early-stage invasive breast cancers of grade 2 or 3 than DM screening, with the highest rate among women aged 60-70 years with dense breasts. Clinical trial registration no. NCT03377036 © RSNA, 2023 See also the editorial by Ha and Chang in this issue.

Digital breast tomosynthesis plus synthesised mammography versus digital screening mammography for the detection of invasive breast cancer (TOSYMA): a multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, superiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Two dimensional (2D) full-field digital mammography is the current standard of breast cancer screening. Digital breast tomosynthesis generates pseudo-three dimensional datasets of the breast from which synthesised 2D (s2D) mammograms can be reconstructed. This innovative approach reduces the likelihood of overlapping breast tissues that can conceal features of malignancy. We aimed to compare digital breast tomosynthesis plus s2D mammography with digital screening mammography for the detection of invasive breast cancer. METHODS: TOSYMA was a randomised, open-label, superiority trial done at 17 screening units in two federal states of Germany. Eligible participants were women aged 50-69 years who had been invited to participate in a population-wide, quality-controlled mammography screening programme. Women were randomly assigned (1:1) to digital breast tomosynthesis plus s2D mammography or digital mammography alone using block randomisation (block size of 32), stratified by site. The primary endpoints were the detection rate of invasive breast cancer and invasive interval cancer rate at 24 months, analysed in the modified full analysis set, which included all randomly assigned participants who underwent either type of screening examination. Ten examinations, corresponding to a second study participation, were excluded. Analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. Interval cancer rates will be reported in the follow-up study. Safety was assessed in the as-treated population, which included all participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03377036, and is closed to accrual. FINDINGS: Between July 5, 2018, and Dec 30, 2020, 99 689 women were randomly assigned to digital breast tomosynthesis plus s2D mammography (n=49 804) or digital mammography (n=49 830). Invasive breast cancers were detected in 354 of 49 715 women with evaluable primary endpoint data in the digital breast tomosynthesis plus s2D group (detection rate 7·1 cases per 1000 women screened) and in 240 of 49 762 women in the digital mammography group (4·8 cases per 1000 women screened; odds ratio 1·48 [95% CI 1·25-1·75]; p<0·0001). Adverse events and device deficiencies were rare (six adverse events in each group; 23 device deficiencies in the digital breast tomosynthesis plus s2D group vs five device deficiencies in the digital mammography group) and no serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: The results from this study indicate that the detection rate for invasive breast cancer was significantly higher with digital breast tomosynthesis plus s2D mammography than digital mammography alone. Evaluation of interval cancer rates in the follow-up study will further help to investigate incremental long-term benefits of digital breast tomosynthesis screening. FUNDING: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation).

The Phenotypic Course of Age-Related Macular Degeneration for ARMS2/HTRA1: The EYE-RISK Consortium.

PURPOSE: Age-related maculopathy susceptibility 2 (ARMS2) is considered the most enigmatic of the genes for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We investigated the phenotypic course and spectrum of AMD for the risk haplotype at the ARMS2 and high-temperature requirement A serine peptidase 1 (HTRA1) locus in a large European consortium. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of 4 case-control and 6 cohort studies. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals (N = 17 204) aged 55 years or older participating in the European Eye Epidemiology consortium. METHODS: Age-related macular degeneration features and macular thickness were determined on multimodal images; data on genetics and phenotype were harmonized. Risks of AMD features for rs3750486 genotypes at the ARMS2/HTRA1 locus were determined by logistic regression and were compared with a genetic risk score (GRS) of 19 variants at the complement pathway. Lifetime risks were estimated with Kaplan-Meier analyses in population-based cohorts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-related macular degeneration features and stage. RESULTS: Of 2068 individuals with late AMD, 64.7% carried the ARMS2/HTRA1 risk allele. For homozygous carriers, the odds ratio (OR) of geographic atrophy was 8.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.5-11.4), of choroidal neovascularization (CNV) was 11.2 (95% CI, 9.4-13.3), and of mixed late AMD was 12.2 (95% CI, 7.3-20.6). Cumulative lifetime risk of late AMD ranged from 4.4% for carriers of the nonrisk genotype to 9.4% and 26.8% for heterozygous and homozygous carriers. The latter received the diagnosis of late AMD 9.6 years (95% CI, 8.0-11.2) earlier than carriers of the nonrisk genotype. The risk haplotype was not associated with hard or soft drusen < 125 µm (OR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.9-1.7), but risks increased significantly for soft drusen ≥ 125 µm (OR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.5-3.0), up to an OR of 7.2 (95% CI, 3.8-13.8) for reticular pseudodrusen. Compared with persons with a high GRS for complement, homozygous carriers of ARMS2/HTRA1 showed a higher risk of CNV (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 3.2-5.4); risks of other characteristics were not different. CONCLUSIONS: Carriers of the risk haplotype at ARMS2/HTRA1 have a particularly high risk of late AMD at a relatively early age. Data suggest that risk variants at ARMS2/HTRA1 act as a strong catalyst of progression once early signs are present. The phenotypic spectrum resembles that of complement genes, only with higher risks of CNV.

Genetic Risk, Lifestyle, and Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Europe: The EYE-RISK Consortium.

PURPOSE: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common multifactorial disease in the elderly with a prominent genetic basis. Many risk variants have been identified, but the interpretation remains challenging. We investigated the genetic distribution of AMD-associated risk variants in a large European consortium, calculated attributable and pathway-specific genetic risks, and assessed the influence of lifestyle on genetic outcomes. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of cross-sectional data from the European Eye Epidemiology Consortium. PARTICIPANTS: Seventeen thousand one hundred seventy-four individuals 45 years of age or older participating in 6 population-based cohort studies, 2 clinic-based studies, and 1 case-control study. METHODS: Age-related macular degeneration was diagnosed and graded based on fundus photographs. Data on genetics, lifestyle, and diet were harmonized. Minor allele frequencies and population-attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated. A total genetic risk score (GRS) and pathway-specific risk scores (complement, lipid, extra-cellular matrix, other) were constructed based on the dosage of SNPs and conditional ß values; a lifestyle score was constructed based on smoking and diet. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Intermediate and late AMD. RESULTS: The risk variants with the largest difference between late AMD patients and control participants and the highest PAFs were located in ARMS2 (rs3750846) and CHF (rs570618 and rs10922109). Combining all genetic variants, the total genetic risk score ranged from -3.50 to 4.63 and increased with AMD severity. Of the late AMD patients, 1581 of 1777 (89%) showed a positive total GRS. The complement pathway and ARMS2 were by far the most prominent genetic pathways contributing to late AMD (positive GRS, 90% of patients with late disease), but risk in 3 pathways was most frequent (35% of patients with late disease). Lifestyle was a strong determinant of the outcome in each genetic risk category; unfavorable lifestyle increased the risk of late AMD at least 2-fold. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic risk variants contribute to late AMD in most patients. However, lifestyle factors have a strong influence on the outcome of genetic risk and should be a strong focus in patient management. Genetic risks in ARMS2 and the complement pathway are present in most late AMD patients but are mostly combined with risks in other pathways.

Integrating Metabolomics, Genomics, and Disease Pathways in Age-Related Macular Degeneration: The EYE-RISK Consortium.

PURPOSE: The current study aimed to identify metabolites associated with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by performing the largest metabolome association analysis in AMD to date, as well as aiming to determine the effect of AMD-associated genetic variants on metabolite levels and investigate associations between the identified metabolites and activity of the complement system, one of the main AMD-associated disease pathways. DESIGN: Case-control association analysis of metabolomics data. PARTICIPANTS: Five European cohorts consisting of 2267 AMD patients and 4266 control participants. METHODS: Metabolomics was performed using a high-throughput proton nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics platform, which allows quantification of 146 metabolite measurements and 79 derivative values. Metabolome-AMD associations were studied using univariate logistic regression analyses. The effect of 52 AMD-associated genetic variants on the identified metabolites was investigated using linear regression. In addition, associations between the identified metabolites and activity of the complement pathway (defined by the C3d-to-C3 ratio) were investigated using linear regression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Metabolites associated with AMD. RESULTS: We identified 60 metabolites that were associated significantly with AMD, including increased levels of large and extra-large high-density lipoprotein (HDL) subclasses and decreased levels of very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL), amino acids, and citrate. Of 52 AMD-associated genetic variants, 7 variants were associated significantly with 34 of the identified metabolites. The strongest associations were identified for genetic variants located in or near genes involved in lipid metabolism (ABCA1, CETP, APOE, and LIPC) with metabolites belonging to the large and extra-large HDL subclasses. Also, 57 of 60 metabolites were associated significantly with complement activation levels, independent of AMD status. Increased large and extra-large HDL levels and decreased VLDL and amino acid levels were associated with increased complement activation. CONCLUSIONS: Lipoprotein levels were associated with AMD-associated genetic variants, whereas decreased essential amino acids may point to nutritional deficiencies in AMD. We observed strong associations between the vast majority of the AMD-associated metabolites and systemic complement activation levels, independent of AMD status. This may indicate biological interactions between the main AMD disease pathways and suggests that multiple pathways may need to be targeted simultaneously for successful treatment of AMD.

Incidence of advanced-stage breast cancer in regular participants of a mammography screening program: a prospective register-based study.

BACKGROUND: The European Guidelines for breast cancer screening suggest that the impact of population-based mammography screening programmes (MSP) may be assessed using the relative reduction in the incidence of advanced breast cancer (ABC, that is, stage UICC II and higher) as a surrogate indicator of screening effectiveness. METHODS: This prospective, population register-based study contained individual data of 1,200,246 women (aged 50-69 years) who attended the initial prevalence screening between 2005 and 2009. Of them, 498,029 women returned for the regular (i.e., within 24 months) first subsequent, and 208,561 for the regular second subsequent incidence screenings. The incidence rate of ABC was calculated for the 24-months period following, but not including, the initial screening by incorporating all interval ABCs and all ABCs detected at the regular first incidence screening; the ABC rate for the second 24-months period was determined in the same way, including ABCs detected in the interval after the first and, respectively, at the second incidence screening. The relative reduction in the ABC incidence was derived by comparing the age-standardized rates in these two periods with an age-standardized reference incidence rate, observed in the target population before the MSP implementation. The strengths and weaknesses of this particular study design were contrasted with a recently published checklist of main methodological problems affecting studies of the effect of MSP on ABC incidence. RESULTS: The age-standardized ABC incidence rate was 291.6 per 100,000 women for the 24-months period subsequent to the initial screening, and 275.0/100,000 for the 24-months period following the first subsequent screening. Compared to the 2-year incidence of 349.4/100,000 before the start of the MSP, this amounted to a relative reduction of 16.5 and 21.3%, respectively, in the incidence of ABC among regular MSP participants. CONCLUSIONS: The design employed in this study avoids some of the substantial methodological limitations that compromised previous observational studies. Nevertheless, specific limitations prevail that demand a cautious interpretation of the results. Therefore, the study findings, indicating a reduction in ABC for regular MSP participants, need to be followed with respect to potential impacts on breast cancer mortality rates.

Secure Linking of Data from Population-Based Cancer Registries with Healthcare Data to Evaluate Screening Programs.

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of population-based screening programs, like the German Mammography Screening Program (MSP), requires collection and linking data from population-based cancer registries and other sources of the healthcare system on a case- specific level. To link such sensitive data, we developed a method that is compliant with German data protection regulations and does not require written individual consent. METHODS: Our method combines a probabilistic record linkage on encrypted identifying data with 'blinded anonymisation'. It ensures that all data either are encrypted or have a defined and measurable degree of anonymity. The data sources use a software to transform plain-text identifying data into a set of irreversibly encrypted person cryptograms, while the evaluation attributes are aggregated in multiple stages and are reversibly encrypted. A pseudonymisation service encrypts the person cryptograms into record assignment numbers and a downstream data-collecting centre uses them to perform the probabilistic record linkage. The blinded anonymisation solves the problem of quasi-identifiers within the evaluation data. It allows selecting a specific set of the encrypted aggregations to produce data export with ensured k-anonymity, without any plain-text information. These data are finally transferred to an evaluation centre where they are decrypted and analysed. Our approach allows creating several such generalisations, with different resulting suppression rates allowing dynamic balance information depth with privacy protection and also highlights how this affects data analysability. RESULTS: German data protection authorities approved our concept for the evaluation of the impact of the German MSP on breast cancer mortality. We implemented a prototype and tested it with 1.5 million simulated records, containing realistically distributed identifying data, calculated different generalisations and the respective suppression rates. Here, we also discuss limitations for large data sets in the cancer registry domain, as well as approaches for further improvements like l-diversity and how to reduce the amount of manual post-processing. CONCLUSION: Our approach enables secure linking of data from population-based cancer registries and other sources of the healthcare system. Despite some limitations, it enables evaluation of the German MSP program and can be generalised to be applicable to other projects.

Increased High-Density Lipoprotein Levels Associated with Age-Related Macular Degeneration: Evidence from the EYE-RISK and European Eye Epidemiology Consortia.

PURPOSE: Genetic and epidemiologic studies have shown that lipid genes and high-density lipoproteins (HDLs) are implicated in age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We studied circulating lipid levels in relationship to AMD in a large European dataset. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of cross-sectional data. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals (N = 30 953) aged 50 years or older participating in the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium and 1530 individuals from the Rotterdam Study with lipid subfraction data. METHODS: AMD features were graded on fundus photographs using the Rotterdam classification. Routine blood lipid measurements, genetics, medication, and potential confounders were extracted from the E3 database. In a subgroup of the Rotterdam Study, lipid subfractions were identified by the Nightingale biomarker platform. Random-intercepts mixed-effects models incorporating confounders and study site as a random effect were used to estimate associations. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: AMD features and stage; lipid measurements. RESULTS: HDL was associated with an increased risk of AMD (odds ratio [OR], 1.21 per 1-mmol/l increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.29), whereas triglycerides were associated with a decreased risk (OR, 0.94 per 1-mmol/l increase; 95% CI, 0.91-0.97). Both were associated with drusen size. Higher HDL raised the odds of larger drusen, whereas higher triglycerides decreases the odds. LDL cholesterol reached statistical significance only in the association with early AMD (P = 0.045). Regarding lipid subfractions, the concentration of extra-large HDL particles showed the most prominent association with AMD (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.10-1.40). The cholesteryl ester transfer protein risk variant (rs17231506) for AMD was in line with increased HDL levels (P = 7.7 × 10-7), but lipase C risk variants (rs2043085, rs2070895) were associated in an opposite way (P = 1.0 × 10-6 and P = 1.6 × 10-4). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggested that HDL cholesterol is associated with increased risk of AMD and that triglycerides are negatively associated. Both show the strongest association with early AMD and drusen. Extra-large HDL subfractions seem to be drivers in the relationship with AMD, and variants in lipid genes play a more ambiguous role in this association. Whether systemic lipids directly influence AMD or represent lipid metabolism in the retina remains to be answered.

[Enrichment of Claims Data with Official Causes of Death Using a Record Linkage with the Epidemiological Cancer Registry of North Rhine-Westphalia: Feasibility Study and Comparison of Procedures]. / Anreicherung eines GKV-Datensatzes mit amtlichen Todesursachen über einen Abgleich mit dem Epidemiologischen Krebsregister Nordrhein-Westfalen: Machbarkeitsstudie und Methodenvergleich.

BACKGROUND: Claims data of the statutory health insurance (SHI) are an important data source for the evaluation of cancer prevention programs. However, this source does not contain relevant information on cause of death. This study examined whether individual claims data can be enriched with data on the required cause of death using record linkage procedures with suitable external data sources. METHODS: In the German pharmacoepidemiologic research database (GePaRD) we identified a sample of 25,528 deceased female residents of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) who, according to GePaRD information, died between 2006 and 2013. Date and cause of all deaths among inhabitants of NRW since 2005 were available in the epidemiological cancer registry of NRW. In cooperation with 2 SHI companies, we tried to match each individual of the sample with a case of death in NRW and the corresponding cause of death using a probabilistic and, alternatively, a deterministic linkage procedure. RESULTS: Of the study sample, 94.72% were successfully matched by the probabilistic and 93.36% by the deterministic method. CONCLUSIONS: The probabilistic and the deterministic record linkage approach produced comparably high matching rates. Cases without matches are probably due to errors occurring at the stage of personal data entry. Given the lower technical efforts, the deterministic approach appears to be the method of choice for the enrichment of claims data with cause of death information from suitable external data sources in Germany.

Detection Rates of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ with Biennial Digital Mammography Screening: Radiologic Findings Support Pathologic Model of Tumor Progression.

Purpose To compare detection rates of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), classified according to nuclear grade, between the prevalence round (baseline screening) and two subsequent screening rounds of a population-based digital mammography screening program, to assess differences over time. Materials and Methods The cancer registry provided data for 1970 graded pure DCIS cases from 16 screening regions of the prevalence round (baseline screening, from 2005 to 2008), first subsequent round, and second subsequent round; the interval between all screening rounds was 22-30 months. Age-adjusted logistic regression analysis was performed to compare the grade-specific detection rates between the prevalence round (reference) and subsequent screening rounds. Results Over all screening rounds, cancer detection rates were lowest for low-grade DCIS (range, 0.11 [58 of 508 817 patients] to 0.25 [178 of 713 867 patients] per 1000 women screened) and highest for high-grade DCIS (range, 0.53[271 of 508 817 patients] to 0.59 [237 of 398 944 patients] per 1000 women screened). Detection rates for low-grade DCIS were significantly lower in the first (odds ratio [OR] = 0.45, P < .001) and second (OR = 0.57, P < .001) subsequent screening rounds compared with that in the prevalence round; the relative reduction of detection rates of intermediate-grade DCIS was less pronounced (OR = 0.79, P = .006 and OR = 0.76, P = .003, respectively). Conversely, the detection rate of high-grade DCIS remained at the high level found in the prevalence screening (OR = 0.89, P = .143 and OR = 0.97, P = .700, respectively). Conclusion The findings demonstrate persistently high detection rates of high-grade DCIS in two consecutive subsequent screening rounds compared with the prevalence round; conversely, rates of low-grade DCIS and, less markedly, intermediate-grade DCIS decreased in subsequent rounds. Grade-related changes of DCIS detection are suggestive of distinct dynamics of lesion progression. © RSNA, 2017 An earlier incorrect version of this article appeared online. This article was corrected on November 10, 2017.

[The development of early cancer detection in Germany]. / Entwicklung der Krebsfrüherkennung in Deutschland.

Cancer is one of the most relevant chronic diseases in the German population, but not all neoplastic entities are eligible for early cancer detection (ECD) programs. In 1971, ECDs were introduced as population-wide screenings for the first time in the catalogue of benefits of the West German statutory health insurance funds. However, the implementation at that time was rarely systematic. Concurrently, a discussion on the perspectives of ECD arose in the former German Democratic Republic, where a structured program was not prepared in the country until the late 1980s.A national cancer plan (NCP) was initiated in 2008 and its area of action #1 was titled "Further development of ECD". In April 2013, the law for the development of early cancer detection and quality assurance by clinical cancer registries was passed, which adopted major suggestions of the NCP. Consequently, the pertinent recommendations of the EU guidelines for the screening of the breast, cervix, and colon-rectum are currently being implemented.Public opinion in Germany with regard to ECDs has changed in recent years from unanimous consent to a rather critical distance. While ineffective and inefficient preventive action is being replaced by quality-assured screening procedures, public discussion about the fundamental reasonability of ECDs is controversial as never before.

[Time trend in programme sensitivity within the German mammography screening programme in North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony]. / Zeitliche Entwicklung der Programmsensitivität des deutschen Mammographie-Screening-Programms in Nordrhein-Westfalen und Niedersachsen.

BACKGROUND: The programme sensitivity is a performance indicator for evaluating the quality of the mammography screening programme (MSP). OBJECTIVES: We analysed the development of the programme sensitivity over time in two federal states of Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (NDS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from 2,717,801 (NRW) and 1,197,660 (NDS) screening examinations between 2006 and 2011 were linked with data of the State Cancer Registry NRW and the Epidemiological Cancer Registry NDS, respectively. Breast cancers (invasive and in situ) were either detected at screening or diagnosed within the 24-month interval after an inconspicuous screening result outside the programme. The crude and age-standardized programme sensitivity was calculated per calendar year. The German mammography screening office provided aggregated recall rates. RESULTS: The age-standardized programme sensitivity increased markedly for initial screening examinations from 2006 to 2011 from 75.0% (95% CI: 72.1-77.9) to 80.5% (95% CI: 78.5-82.5) in NRW, and from 74.9% (95% CI: 71.4-78.5) to 84.7% (95% CI: 81.1-88.3) in NDS. Concurrently, recall rates increased as well. For subsequent screening examinations, the programme sensitivity increased from 2008 to 2011 from 68.1% (95% CI: 63.1-73.1) to 71.9% (95% CI: 70.2-73.6) in NRW, and from 69.8% (95% CI: 64.2-75.4) to 74.9% (95% CI: 72.3-77.5) in NDS, whereas the recall rates remained relatively constant. CONCLUSIONS: In both federal states, the programme sensitivity increased over time. This increase, possibly indicating an improved quality of diagnosis within the MSP as a learning system, is discussed under consideration of the age distribution of screening participants and the recall rates.

Genetic Polymorphisms and the Phenotypic Characterization of Individuals with Early Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PURPOSE: While the importance of risk polymorphisms for the pathogenesis of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is well established, their impact on morphological and functional phenotypes is largely unclear. We aimed to characterize individual phenotypes in patients who were either homozygous for a risk allele in the CFH gene, ARMS2 gene, or both as compared to non-carriers. METHODS: Patients with early AMD (n = 85) were assessed during a follow-up examination of a prospective study (MARS) with multimodal diagnostics including SD-OCT and microperimetry. RESULTS: Compared to non-carriers, OCT scans revealed lower retinal thickness in patients homozygous for CFH or ARMS2, which was caused by a significantly reduced photoreceptor layer. The number and ultrastructure of drusen were also significantly different. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that patients with risk alleles demonstrate distinct phenotypic differences of morphology and function as compared to non-carriers. In particular in the CFH group, a loss of photoreceptors occurred concomitantly with reduced retinal sensitivity. Further studies might help to better understand the pathophysiology.

Patients with Fabry Disease after Enzyme Replacement Therapy Dose Reduction and Switch-2-Year Follow-Up.

Because of the shortage of agalsidase-ß supply between 2009 and 2012, patients with Fabry disease either were treated with reduced doses or were switched to agalsidase-α. In this observational study, we assessed end organ damage and clinical symptoms with special focus on renal outcome after 2 years of dose-reduction and/or switch to agalsidase-α. A total of 89 adult patients with Fabry disease who had received agalsidase-ß (1.0 mg/kg body wt) for >1 year were nonrandomly assigned to continue this treatment regimen (regular-dose group, n=24), to receive a reduced dose of 0.3-0.5 mg/kg and a subsequent switch to 0.2 mg/kg agalsidase-α (dose-reduction-switch group, n=28), or to directly switch to 0.2 mg/kg agalsidase-α (switch group, n=37) and were followed-up for 2 years. We assessed clinical events (death, myocardial infarction, severe arrhythmia, stroke, progression to ESRD), changes in cardiac and renal function, Fabry-related symptoms (pain, hypohidrosis, diarrhea), and disease severity scores. Determination of renal function by creatinine and cystatin C-based eGFR revealed decreasing eGFRs in the dose-reduction-switch group and the switch group. The Mainz Severity Score Index increased significantly in these two groups (P=0.02 and P<0.001, respectively), and higher frequencies of gastrointestinal pain occurred during follow-up. In conclusion, after 2 years of observation, all groups showed a stable clinical disease course with respect to serious clinical events. However, patients under agalsidase-ß dose-reduction and switch or a direct switch to agalsidase-α showed a decline of renal function independent of the eGFR formula used.

Ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe: the "European Eye Epidemiology" (E3) consortium.

The European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium is a recently formed consortium of 29 groups from 12 European countries. It already comprises 21 population-based studies and 20 other studies (case-control, cases only, randomized trials), providing ophthalmological data on approximately 170,000 European participants. The aim of the consortium is to promote and sustain collaboration and sharing of data and knowledge in the field of ophthalmic epidemiology in Europe, with particular focus on the harmonization of methods for future research, estimation and projection of frequency and impact of visual outcomes in European populations (including temporal trends and European subregions), identification of risk factors and pathways for eye diseases (lifestyle, vascular and metabolic factors, genetics, epigenetics and biomarkers) and development and validation of prediction models for eye diseases. Coordinating these existing data will allow a detailed study of the risk factors and consequences of eye diseases and visual impairment, including study of international geographical variation which is not possible in individual studies. It is expected that collaborative work on these existing data will provide additional knowledge, despite the fact that the risk factors and the methods for collecting them differ somewhat among the participating studies. Most studies also include biobanks of various biological samples, which will enable identification of biomarkers to detect and predict occurrence and progression of eye diseases. This article outlines the rationale of the consortium, its design and presents a summary of the methodology.

Comparing adaptive and fixed bandwidth-based kernel density estimates in spatial cancer epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring spatial disease risk (e.g. identifying risk areas) is of great relevance in public health research, especially in cancer epidemiology. A common strategy uses case-control studies and estimates a spatial relative risk function (sRRF) via kernel density estimation (KDE). This study was set up to evaluate the sRRF estimation methods, comparing fixed with adaptive bandwidth-based KDE, and how they were able to detect 'risk areas' with case data from a population-based cancer registry. METHODS: The sRRF were estimated within a defined area, using locational information on incident cancer cases and on a spatial sample of controls, drawn from a high-resolution population grid recognized as underestimating the resident population in urban centers. The spatial extensions of these areas with underestimated resident population were quantified with population reference data and used in this study as 'true risk areas'. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were conducted by spatial overlay of the 'true risk areas' and the significant (α=.05) p-contour lines obtained from the sRRF. RESULTS: We observed that the fixed bandwidth-based sRRF was distinguished by a conservative behavior in identifying these urban 'risk areas', that is, a reduced sensitivity but increased specificity due to oversmoothing as compared to the adaptive risk estimator. In contrast, the latter appeared more competitive through variance stabilization, resulting in a higher sensitivity, while the specificity was equal as compared to the fixed risk estimator. Halving the originally determined bandwidths led to a simultaneous improvement of sensitivity and specificity of the adaptive sRRF, while the specificity was reduced for the fixed estimator. CONCLUSION: The fixed risk estimator contrasts with an oversmoothing tendency in urban areas, while overestimating the risk in rural areas. The use of an adaptive bandwidth regime attenuated this pattern, but led in general to a higher false positive rate, because, in our study design, the majority of true risk areas were located in urban areas. However, there is a strong need for further optimizing the bandwidth selection methods, especially for the adaptive sRRF.

Small-area spatio-temporal analyses of participation rates in the mammography screening program in the city of Dortmund (NW Germany).

BACKGROUND: The population-based mammography screening program (MSP) was implemented by the end of 2005 in Germany, and all women between 50 and 69 years are actively invited to a free biennial screening examination. However, despite the expected benefits, the overall participation rates range only between 50 and 55%. There is also increasing evidence that belonging to a vulnerable population, such as ethnic minorities or low income groups, is associated with a decreased likelihood of participating in screening programs. This study aimed to analyze in more detail the intra-urban variation of MSP uptake at the neighborhood level (i.e. statistical districts) for the city of Dortmund in northwest Germany and to identify demographic and socioeconomic risk factors that contribute to non-response to screening invitations. METHODS: The numbers of participants by statistical district were aggregated over the three periods 2007/2008, 2009/2010, and 2011/2012. Participation rates were calculated as numbers of participants per female resident population averaged over each 2-year period. Bayesian hierarchical spatial models extended with a temporal and spatio-temporal interaction effect were used to analyze the participation rates applying integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). The model included explanatory covariates taken from the atlas of social structure of Dortmund. RESULTS: Generally, participation rates rose for all districts over the time periods. However, participation was persistently lowest in the inner city of Dortmund. Multivariable regression analysis showed that migrant status and long-term unemployment were associated with significant increases of non-attendance in the MSP. CONCLUSION: Low income groups and immigrant populations are clustered in the inner city of Dortmund and the observed spatial pattern of persistently low participation in the city center is likely linked to the underlying socioeconomic gradient. This corresponds with the findings of the ecological regression analysis manifesting socioeconomically deprived neighborhoods as risk factors for low attendance in the MSP. Spatio-temporal surveillance of participation in cancer screening programs may be used to identify spatial inequalities in screening uptake and plan spatially focused interventions.