The association between vital signs and clinical outcomes in emergency department patients of different age categories.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate interpretation of vital signs is essential for risk stratification in the emergency department (ED) but may change with advancing age. In several guidelines, risk scores such as the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores, commonly used in emergency medicine practice (as well as critical care) specify a single cut-off or threshold for each of the commonly measured vital signs. Although a single cut-off may be convenient, it is unknown whether a single cut-off for vital signs truly exists and if the association between vital signs and in-hospital mortality differs per age-category. AIMS: To assess the association between initial vital signs and case-mix adjusted in-hospital mortality in different age categories. METHODS: Observational multicentre cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED) in which consecutive ED patients ≥18 years were included between 1 January 2017 and 12 January 2020. The association between vital signs and case-mix adjusted mortality were assessed in three age categories (18-65; 66-80; >80 years) using multivariable logistic regression. Vital signs were each divided into five to six categories, for example, systolic blood pressure (SBP) categories (≤80, 81-100, 101-120, 121-140, >140 mm Hg). RESULTS: We included 101 416 patients of whom 2374 (2.3%) died. Adjusted ORs for mortality increased gradually with decreasing SBP and decreasing peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2). Diastolic blood pressure (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) had quasi-U-shaped associations with mortality. Mortality did not increase for temperatures anywhere in the range between 35.5°C and 42.0°C, with a single cut-off around 35.5°C below which mortality increased. Single cut-offs were also found for MAP <70 mm Hg and respiratory rate >22/min. For all vital signs, older patients had larger increases in absolute mortality compared with younger patients. CONCLUSION: For SBP, DBP, SpO2 and HR, no single cut-off existed. The impact of changing vital sign categories on prognosis was larger in older patients. Our results have implications for the interpretation of vital signs in existing risk stratification tools and acute care guidelines.

Risk factors for unplanned transfer to the intensive care unit after emergency department admission.

INTRODUCTION: Unplanned Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission has been used as a surrogate marker of adverse events, and is used by the Australian Council of Healthcare Accreditation as a reportable quality indicator. If we can identify independent variables predicting deterioration which require ICU transfer within 24h after emergency department (ED) admission, direct ICU admission should be considered. This may improve patient safety and reduce adverse events by appropriate disposition of patients presenting to the ED. OBJECTIVE(S): The aim of this study was to identify independent variables predicting deterioration which require ICU transfer within 24h after ED admission. METHODS: A case control study was performed to examine characteristics of patients who underwent an unplanned transfer to the ICU within 24h after ED admission. RESULTS: There were significantly more hypercapnia patients in the ICU admission group (n=17) compared to the non-ICU group (n=5) (p=0.028). There were significantly greater rates of tachypnea in septic patients (p=0.022) and low oxygen saturation for patients with pneumonia (p=0.045). The level of documentation of respiratory rate was poor. CONCLUSIONS: In patients presenting to the ED, hypercapnia was a predictor for deterioration which requires ICU transfer within 24h after ED admission. Additional predicting factors in patients with sepsis or pneumonia were respectively tachypnea and low oxygen saturation. For these patient groups direct ICU admission should be considered to prevent unplanned ICU admission. This data emphasizes the importance of measuring the vital signs, particularly the respiratory rate.

Age-adjusted interpretation of biomarkers of renal function and homeostasis, inflammation, and circulation in Emergency Department patients.

Appropriate interpretation of blood tests is important for risk stratification and guidelines used in the Emergency Department (ED) (such as SIRS or CURB-65). The impact of abnormal blood test values on mortality may change with increasing age due to (patho)-physiologic changes. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the effect of age on the case-mix adjusted association between biomarkers of renal function and homeostasis, inflammation and circulation and in-hospital mortality. This observational multi-center cohort study has used the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED), including all consecutive ED patients ≥ 18 years of three hospitals. A generalized additive logistic regression model was used to visualize the association between in-hospital mortality, age and five blood tests (creatinine, sodium, leukocytes, C-reactive Protein, and hemoglobin). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between the number of abnormal blood test values and mortality per age category (18-50; 51-65; 66-80; > 80 years). Of the 94,974 included patients, 2550 (2.7%) patients died in-hospital. Mortality increased gradually for C-reactive Protein (CRP), and had a U-shaped association for creatinine, sodium, leukocytes, and hemoglobin. Age significantly affected the associations of all studied blood tests except in leukocytes. In addition, with increasing age categories, case-mix adjusted mortality increased with the number of abnormal blood tests. In summary, the association between blood tests and (adjusted) mortality depends on age. Mortality increases gradually or in a U-shaped manner with increasing blood test values. Age-adjusted numerical scores may improve risk stratification. Our results have implications for interpretation of blood tests and their use in risk stratification tools and acute care guidelines.Trial registration number Netherlands Trial Register (NTR) NL8422, 03/2020.

The association between presenting complaints and clinical outcomes in emergency department patients of different age categories.

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE: Although aging societies in Western Europe use presenting complaints (PCs) in emergency departments (EDs) triage systems to determine the urgency and severity of the care demand, it is unclear whether their prognostic value is age-dependent. OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency and association of PCs with hospitalization and mortality across age categories. METHODS: An observational multicenter study using all consecutive visits of three EDs in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database. Patients were stratified by age category (0-18; 19-50; 51-65; 66-80; >80 years), in which the association between PCs and case-mix adjusted hospitalization and mortality was studied using multivariable logistic regression analysis (adjusting for demographics, hospital, disease severity, comorbidity and other PCs). RESULTS: We included 172 104 ED-visits. The most frequent PCs were 'extremity problems' [range across age categories (13.5-40.8%)], 'feeling unwell' (9.5-23.4%), 'abdominal pain' (6.0-13.9%), 'dyspnea' (4.5-13.3%) and 'chest pain' (0.6-10.7%). For most PCs, the observed and the case-mix-adjusted odds for hospitalization and mortality increased the higher the age category. The most common PCs with the highest adjusted odds ratios (AORs, 95% CI) for hospitalization were 'diarrhea and vomiting' [2.30 (2.02-2.62)] and 'feeling unwell' [1.60 (1.48-1.73)]. Low hospitalization risk was found for 'chest pain' [0.58 (0.53-0.63)] and 'palpitations' [0.64 (0.58-0.71)]. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of PCs in ED patients varies with age, but the same PCs occur in all age categories. For most PCs, (case-mix adjusted) hospitalization and mortality vary across age categories. 'Chest pain' and 'palpitations,' usually triaged 'very urgent', carry a low risk for hospitalization and mortality.

Machine learning for developing a prediction model of hospital admission of emergency department patients: Hype or hope?

OBJECTIVE: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models predicting the hospitalization of ED patients and conventional regression techniques at three points in time after ED registration. METHODS: We analyzed consecutive ED patients of three hospitals using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). We developed prediction models for hospitalization using an increasing number of data available at triage, ∼30 min (including vital signs) and ∼2 h (including laboratory tests) after ED registration, using ML (random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, deep neural networks) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (including spline transformations for continuous predictors). Demographics, urgency, presenting complaints, disease severity and proxies for comorbidity, and complexity were used as covariates. We compared the performance using the area under the ROC curve in independent validation sets from each hospital. RESULTS: We included 172,104 ED patients of whom 66,782 (39 %) were hospitalized. The AUC of the multivariable logistic regression model was 0.82 (0.78-0.86) at triage, 0.84 (0.81-0.86) at ∼30 min and 0.83 (0.75-0.92) after ∼2 h. The best performing ML model over time was the gradient boosted decision trees model with an AUC of 0.84 (0.77-0.88) at triage, 0.86 (0.82-0.89) at ∼30 min and 0.86 (0.74-0.93) after ∼2 h. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that machine learning models had an excellent but similar predictive performance as the logistic regression model for predicting hospital admission. In comparison to the 30-min model, the 2-h model did not show a performance improvement. After further validation, these prediction models could support management decisions by real-time feedback to medical personal.

Position within the hospital and role in the emergency department of emergency physicians in the Netherlands: a national survey.

OBJECTIVES: Emergency medicine (EM) in the Netherlands has developed rapidly and initially without central guidance. This has led to heterogeneity in current EM practice. Our aim was to quantify this heterogeneity by answering the following questions: (1) What is the current position of emergency physicians (EPs) within hospital organizations? (2) Which roles and responsibilities do EPs have across emergency departments (EDs)? METHODS: During 2018, we conducted a survey among all EM consultant bodies (CBs, n = 56) in the Netherlands. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The response rate was 91.1%. Presence of EPs has been realized 24/7 in 23.1% of EDs. EPs were the main consultants for all ED patients in 9.8% of CBs, but never had this role in 13.7% of CBs. EPs supervised EM junior doctors in 78.5% of EDs, GPs in training in 80.0% of EDs, and junior doctors of other specialties in 41.5% of EDs. Procedures such as lumbar puncture (LP), procedural sedation and analgesia (PSA), and emergency ultrasound (US) were performed by all EPs in the CB in a range between 5.9 and 78.4%. In 36.9% of EDs, EPs did not analyze patients with presumed cardiac pathology due to a separate First Heart Aid. CONCLUSION: We conclude that there is a high degree of heterogeneity between emergency CBs in regard to the position in the hospital and the role or responsibilities in the ED. Lack of uniformity might inhibit emancipation of the profession.

Patellar dislocation: cylinder cast, splint or brace? An evidence-based review of the literature.

Patellar dislocations are a common injury in the emergency department. The conservative management consists of immobilisation with a cylinder cast, posterior splint or removable knee brace. No consensus seems to exist on the most appropriate means of conservative treatment or the duration of immobilisation. Therefore the aims of this review were first to examine whether immobilisation with a cylinder cast causes less redislocation and joint movement restriction than a knee brace or posterior splint and second to compare the redislocation rates after conservative treatment with surgical treatment. A systematic search of Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane Library was performed. We identified 470 articles. After applying the exclusion and inclusion criteria, only one relevant study comparing conservative treatment with a cylinder cast, brace and posterior splint remained (Mäenpää et al.). In this study, the redislocation frequency per follow-up year was significant higher in the brace group (0.29; p < 0.05) than in the cylinder cast group (0.12) and the posterior splint group (0.08). The proportion of loss of flexion and extension was the highest in the cylinder cast group and the lowest in the posterior splint group (not significant). The evidence level remained low because of the small study population, difference in duration of immobilisation between groups and use of old braces. Also, 12 studies comparing surgical with conservative treatment were assessed. Only one study reported significantly different redislocation rates after surgical treatment. In conclusion, a posterior splint might be the best therapeutic option because of the low redislocation rates and knee joint restrictions. However, this recommendation is based on only one study with significant limitations. Further investigation with modern braces and standardisation of immobilisation time is needed to find the most appropriate conservative treatment for patellar luxation. Furthermore, there is insufficient evidence to confirm the added value of surgical management.