Potential association between PSCA rs2976395 functional variant and pancreatic cancer risk.

Correlated regions of systemic interindividual variation (CoRSIV) represent a small proportion of the human genome showing DNA methylation patterns that are the same in all human tissues, are different among individuals, and are partially regulated by genetic variants in cis. In this study we aimed at investigating single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within CoRSIVs and their involvement with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk. We analyzed 29,099 CoRSIV-SNPs and 133,615 CoRSIV-mQTLs in 14,394 cases and 247,022 controls of European and Asian descent. We observed that the A allele of the rs2976395 SNP was associated with increased PDAC risk in Europeans (p = 2.81 × 10-5). This SNP lies in the prostate stem cell antigen gene and is in perfect linkage disequilibrium with a variant (rs2294008) that has been reported to be associated with risk of many other cancer types. The A allele is associated with the DNA methylation level of the gene according to the PanCan-meQTL database and with overexpression according to QTLbase. The expression of the gene has been observed to be deregulated in many tumors of the gastrointestinal tract including pancreatic cancer; however, functional studies are needed to elucidate the function relevance of the association.

Cancer-specific risk prediction with a serum microRNA signature.

We recently derived and validated a serum-based microRNA risk score (miR-score) that predicted colorectal cancer (CRC) occurrence with very high accuracy within 14 years of follow-up in a population-based cohort study from Germany (ESTHER cohort). Here, we aimed to evaluate associations of the CRC-specific miR-score with the risk of developing other common cancers, including female breast cancer (BC), lung cancer (LC), and prostate cancer (PC), in the ESTHER cohort. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) were profiled by quantitative real-time PCR in serum samples collected at baseline from randomly selected incident cases of BC (n = 90), LC (n = 88), and PC (n = 93) and participants without diagnosis of CRC, LC, BC, or PC (controls, n = 181) until the end of the 17-year follow-up. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate the associations of the miR-score with BC, LC, and PC incidence. The miR-score showed strong inverse associations with BC and LC incidence [odds ratio per 1 standard deviation increase: 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.82), p = 0.0017, and 0.64 (95% CI 0.48-0.84),p = 0.0015, respectively]. Associations with PC were not statistically significant but pointed in the positive direction. Our study highlights the potential of serum-based miRNA biomarkers for cancer-specific risk prediction. Further large cohort studies aiming to investigate, validate, and optimize the use of circulating miRNA signatures for cancer risk assessment are warranted.

Does breast cancer modify the long-term relationship between lifestyle behaviors and mortality? A prospective analysis of breast cancer survivors and population-based controls.

BACKGROUND: Modifiable lifestyle factors are known to impact survival. It is less clear whether this differs between postmenopausal women ever diagnosed with breast cancer and unaffected women. METHODS: Women diagnosed with breast cancer and unaffected women of comparable age were recruited from 2002 to 2005 and followed up until 2020. Using baseline information, a lifestyle adherence score (range 0-8; categorized as low [0-3.74], moderate [3.75-4.74], and high [≥4.75]) was created based on the 2018 World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF/AICR) cancer prevention recommendations. Cox regression and competing risks analysis were used to analyze the association of adherence to WCRF/AICR lifestyle recommendations with overall mortality and with death due to cardiovascular diseases and cancer, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 8584 women were included (2785 with breast cancer and 5799 without). With a median follow-up of 16.1 years there were 2006 total deaths. Among the deaths of known causes (98.6%), 445 were cardiovascular-related and 1004 were cancer-related. The average lifestyle score was 4.2. There was no differential effect of lifestyle score by case-control status on mortality. After adjusting for covariates, moderate (hazard ratio [HR], 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.76) and high (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.47-0.63) adherence to WCRF/AICR lifestyle recommendations were significantly associated with a decrease in overall mortality. Similarly, in competing risks analysis, moderate and high adherence were associated with decreased mortality from cardiovascular diseases and from cancer. CONCLUSIONS: A healthy lifestyle can substantially reduce mortality risk in women. With low adherence to all WCRF/AICR guidelines in about a third of study participants, health interventions are warranted.

Diabetes mellitus in long-term survivors with colorectal, breast, or prostate cancer: Prevalence and prognosis. A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cancer are at increased risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). Previous studies on the prevalence and prognostic impact of DM in cancer survivors were limited by small sample sizes or short follow-up times. We aimed to compare the patient-reported prevalence of DM in long-term cancer survivors (LTCS), who survived 5 years or more after cancer diagnosis, with that in cancer-free controls, and to estimate the mortality risk among LTCS according to DM status. METHODS: Our population-based cohort comprised 6952 LTCS diagnosed with breast, colorectal, or prostate cancer between 1994 and 2004, recruited in 2008-2011 (baseline), and followed until 2019. A total of 1828 cancer-free individuals served as controls. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the prevalence of DM in LTCS and controls, and according to covariates at baseline. Mortality among LTCS according to DM was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: A total of 962 (13.8%) LTCS at baseline reported DM. Prevalence of DM in LTCS was not higher than in cancer-free controls, both at baseline (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.97) and at follow-up (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.67-1.04). Prevalence of DM in LTCS was associated with cancer site, older age, lower education, higher socioeconomic deprivation, higher body mass index, physical inactivity, other comorbidities, and poorer prognosis (adjusted hazard ratio [all-cause mortality] = 1.29; 95% CI, 1.15-1.44). CONCLUSION: DM in LTCS is prevalent, but not higher than in cancer-free population controls. Cancer survivors with concurrent DM are at a potentially higher risk of death. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Cancer and diabetes mellitus (DM) are two serious threats to global health. In our study, prevalence of DM in long-term cancer survivors who survived 5 years or more after cancer diagnosis was not higher than in cancer-free controls. This should not be interpreted as an indication of a lower risk of DM in cancer survivors. Rather, it highlights the potentially poor prognosis in diabetic cancer survivors. Therefore, keeping a continuous satisfactory DM and hyperglycemia management is essential during long-term cancer survivorship.

Learning debiased graph representations from the OMOP common data model for synthetic data generation.

BACKGROUND: Generating synthetic patient data is crucial for medical research, but common approaches build up on black-box models which do not allow for expert verification or intervention. We propose a highly available method which enables synthetic data generation from real patient records in a privacy preserving and compliant fashion, is interpretable and allows for expert intervention. METHODS: Our approach ties together two established tools in medical informatics, namely OMOP as a data standard for electronic health records and Synthea as a data synthetization method. For this study, data pipelines were built which extract data from OMOP, convert them into time series format, learn temporal rules by 2 statistical algorithms (Markov chain, TARM) and 3 algorithms of causal discovery (DYNOTEARS, J-PCMCI+, LiNGAM) and map the outputs into Synthea graphs. The graphs are evaluated quantitatively by their individual and relative complexity and qualitatively by medical experts. RESULTS: The algorithms were found to learn qualitatively and quantitatively different graph representations. Whereas the Markov chain results in extremely large graphs, TARM, DYNOTEARS, and J-PCMCI+ were found to reduce the data dimension during learning. The MultiGroupDirect LiNGAM algorithm was found to not be applicable to the problem statement at hand. CONCLUSION: Only TARM and DYNOTEARS are practical algorithms for real-world data in this use case. As causal discovery is a method to debias purely statistical relationships, the gradient-based causal discovery algorithm DYNOTEARS was found to be most suitable.

Childhood and adolescence factors and multiple sclerosis: results from the German National Cohort (NAKO).

BACKGROUND: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) represents the most common inflammatory neurological disease causing disability in early adulthood. Childhood and adolescence factors might be of relevance in the development of MS. We aimed to investigate the association between various factors (e.g., prematurity, breastfeeding, daycare attendance, weight history) and MS risk. METHODS: Data from the baseline assessment of the German National Cohort (NAKO) were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between childhood and adolescence factors and risk of MS. Analyses stratified by sex were conducted. RESULTS: Among a total of 204,273 participants, 858 reported an MS diagnosis. Male sex was associated with a decreased MS risk (HR 0.48; 95% CI 0.41-0.56), while overweight (HR 2.03; 95% CI 1.41-2.94) and obesity (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.02-3.48) at 18 years of age compared to normal weight were associated with increased MS risk. Having been breastfed for ≤ 4 months was associated with a decreased MS risk in men (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.40-0.86) compared to no breastfeeding. No association with MS risk was observed for the remaining factors. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from overweight and obesity at the age of 18 years, we did not observe considerable associations with MS risk. The proportion of cases that can be explained by childhood and adolescence factors examined in this study was low. Further investigations of the association between the onset of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence and its interaction with physical activity and MS risk seem worthwhile.

Strong associations of serum selenoprotein P with all-cause mortality and mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular, respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases in older German adults.

BACKGROUND: Selenium is an essential trace mineral. The main function of selenoprotein P (SELENOP) is to transport selenium but it has also been ascribed anti-oxidative effects. METHODS: To assess the association of repeated measurements of serum SELENOP concentration with all-cause and cause-specific mortality serum SELENOP was measured at baseline and 5-year follow-up in 7,186 and 4,164 participants of the ESTHER study, a German population-based cohort aged 50-74 years at baseline. RESULTS: During 17.3 years of follow-up, 2,126 study participants (30%) died. The relationship of serum SELENOP concentration with all-cause mortality was L-shaped, with mortality being significantly higher at SELENOP concentrations < 4.1 mg/L, which is near the bottom tertile's cut-off (4.2 mg/L). All-cause mortality of participants in the bottom SELENOP tertile was significantly increased compared to subjects in the top tertile (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.35 [1.21-1.50]). SELENOP in the bottom tertile was further associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (1.24 [1.04-1.49]), cancer mortality (1.31 [1.09-1.58]), respiratory disease mortality (2.06 [1.28-3.32]) and gastrointestinal disease mortality (2.04 [1.25-3.32]). The excess risk of all-cause mortality for those in the bottom SELENOP tertile was more than twice as strong in men as in women (interaction of SELENOP and sex; p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort study, serum SELENOP concentration was inversely associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Consistent inverse associations with multiple mortality outcomes might be explained by an impaired selenium transport and selenium deficiency in multiple organs. Trials testing the efficacy of selenium supplements in subjects with low baseline SELENOP concentration are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Retrospectively registered in the German Clinical Trials Register on Feb 14, 2018 (ID: DRKS00014028).

Changes in physical activity and sedentary behavior during the first COVID-19 pandemic- restrictions in Germany: a nationwide survey : Running head: physical activity during the COVID-19 restrictions.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic restrictions posed challenges to maintaining healthy lifestyles and physical well-being. During the first mobility restrictions from March to mid-July 2020, the German population was advised to stay home, except for work, exercise, and essential shopping. Our objective was to comprehensively assess the impact of these restrictions on changes in physical activity and sedentary behavior to identify the most affected groups. METHODS: Between April 30, 2020, and May 12, 2020, we distributed a COVID-19-specific questionnaire to participants of the German National Cohort (NAKO). This questionnaire gathered information about participants' physical activity and sedentary behavior currently compared to the time before the restrictions. We integrated this new data with existing information on anxiety, depressive symptoms, and physical activity. The analyses focused on sociodemographic factors, social relationships, physical health, and working conditions. RESULTS: Out of 152,421 respondents, a significant proportion reported altered physical activity and sedentary behavioral patterns due to COVID-19 restrictions. Over a third of the participants initially meeting the WHO's physical activity recommendation could no longer meet the guidelines during the restrictions. Participants reported substantial declines in sports activities (mean change (M) = -0.38; 95% CI: -.390; -.378; range from -2 to + 2) and reduced active transportation (M = -0.12; 95% CI: -.126; -.117). However, they also increased recreational physical activities (M = 0.12; 95% CI: .117; .126) while engaging in more sedentary behavior (M = 0.24; 95% CI: .240; .247) compared to pre-restriction levels. Multivariable linear and log-binomial regression models indicated that younger adults were more affected by the restrictions than older adults. The shift to remote work, self-rated health, and depressive symptoms were the factors most strongly associated with changes in all physical activity domains, including sedentary behavior, and the likelihood to continue following the physical activity guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Mobility patterns shifted towards inactivity or low-intensity activities during the nationwide restrictions in the spring of 2020, potentially leading to considerable and lasting health risks.

A scan of all coding region variants of the human genome, identifies 13q12.2-rs9579139 and 15q24.1-rs2277598 as novel risk loci for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Coding sequence variants comprise a small fraction of the germline genetic variability of the human genome. However, they often cause deleterious change in protein function and are therefore associated with pathogenic phenotypes. To identify novel pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) risk loci, we carried out a complete scan of all common missense and synonymous SNPs and analysed them in a case-control study comprising four different populations, for a total of 14 538 PDAC cases and 190 657 controls. We observed a statistically significant association between 13q12.2-rs9581957-T and PDAC risk (P = 2.46 × 10-9), that is in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with a deleterious missense variant (rs9579139) of the URAD gene. Recent findings suggest that this gene is active in peroxisomes. Considering that peroxisomes have a key role as molecular scavengers, especially in eliminating reactive oxygen species, a malfunctioning URAD protein might expose the cell to a higher load of potentially DNA damaging molecules and therefore increase PDAC risk. The association was observed in individuals of European and Asian ethnicity. We also observed the association of the missense variant 15q24.1-rs2277598-T, that belongs to BBS4 gene, with increased PDAC risk (P = 1.53 × 10-6). rs2277598 is associated with body mass index and is in LD with diabetes susceptibility loci. In conclusion, we identified two missense variants associated with the risk of developing PDAC independently from the ethnicity highlighting the importance of conducting reanalysis of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in light of functional data.

The impact of cardiovascular disease on all-cause and cancer mortality: results from a 16-year follow-up of a German breast cancer case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine if CVD affects the mortality of women after a breast cancer diagnosis and population controls differently. METHODS: The analysis included a total of 3,555 women, diagnosed with primary stage 1-3 breast cancer or in situ carcinoma between 2002 and 2005 and 7,334 controls breast cancer-free at recruitment, all aged 50-74 years, who were followed-up in a German breast cancer case-control study until June, 30 2020. Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence function were calculated for all-cause mortality and mortality from any cancer, stratified for case-control status and CVD, separately for women aged < 65 and ≥ 65 years. Cox regression and Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the association between case-control-status, CVD and mortality from all causes/any cancer. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 16.1 years. In total, 1,172 cases (33.0%) and 1,401 initial controls (19.1%) died. CVD prevalence at recruitment was 15.2% in cases and controls. Cases with CVD had the highest and controls without CVD the lowest mortality during the entire observation period in both age groups (< 65 and ≥ 65 years). CVD was identified as a risk factor for all-cause mortality in both cases and controls aged < 65 years (HR 1.22, 95%CI 0.96-1.55 and HR 1.79, 95%CI 1.43-2.24) as well as at ages of ≥ 65 years (HR 1.44, 95%CI 1.20-1.73 and HR 1.59, 95%CI 1.37-1.83). A significant association of CVD and cancer mortality was found only for cases aged ≥ 65 years. CONCLUSION: CVD was significantly associated with all-cause mortality of both cases and controls and CVD was identified as a risk factor for cancer mortality of cases aged ≥ 65 years at recruitment. Therefore, attention should be paid on monitoring and preventing CVD in breast cancer patients, especially in those diagnosed at older ages.

Trends in cancer incidence by socioeconomic deprivation in Germany in 2007 to 2018: An ecological registry-based study.

Age-standardized cancer incidence has decreased over the last years for many cancer sites in developed countries. Whether these trends led to narrowing or widening socioeconomic inequalities in cancer incidence is unknown. Using cancer registry data covering 48 million inhabitants in Germany, the ecological association between age-standardized total and site specific (colorectal, lung, prostate and breast) cancer incidence in 2007 to 2018 and a deprivation index on district level (aggregated to quintiles) was investigated. Incidence in the most and least deprived districts were compared using Poisson models. Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) and differences in AAPCs between deprivation quintiles were assessed using Joinpoint regression analyses. Age-standardized incidence decreased strongly between 2007 and 2018 for total cancer and all cancer sites (except female lung cancer), irrespective of the level of deprivation. However, differences in the magnitude of trends across deprivation quintiles resulted in increasing inequalities over time for total cancer, colorectal and lung cancer. For total cancer, the incidence rate ratio between the most and least deprived quintile increased from 1.07 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.12) to 1.23 (1.12-1.32) in men and from 1.07 (1.01-1.13) to 1.20 (1.14-1.26) in women. Largest inequalities were observed for lung cancer with 82% (men) and 88% (women) higher incidence in the most vs the least deprived regions in 2018. The observed increase in inequalities in cancer incidence is in alignment with trends in inequalities in risk factor prevalence and partly utilization of screening. Intervention programs targeted at socioeconomically deprived and urban regions are highly needed.

Benefit finding, posttraumatic growth and health-related quality of life in long-term cancer survivors: a prospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: We explored the relationship between benefit finding (BF)/posttraumatic growth (PTG) at baseline and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) at baseline and follow-up in long-term cancer survivors (LTCS; ≥5-year post-diagnosis). MATERIALS AND METHODS: HRQOL was assessed in LTCS in 2009-2011 (5- to 16-year post-diagnosis, baseline) and re-assessed in 2018/2019 (14- to 24-year post-diagnosis, follow-up). BF and PTG were measured at baseline; mean scores were dichotomized into 'none-to-low' (<3) and 'moderate-to-high' (> =3). Linear regression models and linear mixed regression models were employed to assess the association of BF/PTG with HRQOL. RESULTS: Of the 6057 baseline participants, 4373 were alive in 2019, of whom 2704 completed the follow-up questionnaire. Cross-sectionally, LTCS with none-to-low BF reported better HRQOL at baseline and at follow-up than LTCS with higher BF. Longitudinally, no difference was found between none-to-low and moderate-to-high BF on the HRQOL change from baseline to follow-up. HRQOL differences between the PTG groups were not statistically significant cross-sectionally and longitudinally, except those participants with moderate-to-high PTG reported higher role functioning and global health status/QOL. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-sectionally, BF was significantly negatively related to subscales of HRQOL, while PTG was positively correlated to role functioning and global health status/QOL. The results add further evidence that BF and PTG are two different positive psychological concepts.

Polymorphisms in genes of melatonin biosynthesis and signaling support the light-at-night hypothesis for breast cancer.

Light-at-night triggers the decline of pineal gland melatonin biosynthesis and secretion and is an IARC-classified probable breast-cancer risk factor. We applied a large-scale molecular epidemiology approach to shed light on the putative role of melatonin in breast cancer. We investigated associations between breast-cancer risk and polymorphisms at genes of melatonin biosynthesis/signaling using a study population of 44,405 women from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (22,992 cases, 21,413 population-based controls). Genotype data of 97 candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 18 defined gene regions were investigated for breast-cancer risk effects. We calculated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) by logistic regression for the main-effect analysis as well as stratified analyses by estrogen- and progesterone-receptor (ER, PR) status. SNP-SNP interactions were analyzed via a two-step procedure based on logic regression. The Bayesian false-discovery probability (BFDP) was used for all analyses to account for multiple testing. Noteworthy associations (BFDP < 0.8) included 10 linked SNPs in tryptophan hydroxylase 2 (TPH2) (e.g. rs1386492: OR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.02-1.12), and a SNP in the mitogen-activated protein kinase 8 (MAPK8) (rs10857561: OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.04-1.18). The SNP-SNP interaction analysis revealed noteworthy interaction terms with TPH2- and MAPK-related SNPs (e.g. rs1386483R ∧ rs1473473D ∧ rs3729931D: OR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.09-1.32). In line with the light-at-night hypothesis that links shift work with elevated breast-cancer risks our results point to SNPs in TPH2 and MAPK-genes that may impact the intricate network of circadian regulation.

Association of plasma biomarkers, p-tau181, glial fibrillary acidic protein, and neurofilament light, with intermediate and long-term clinical Alzheimer's disease risk: Results from a prospective cohort followed over 17 years.

INTRODUCTION: Blood biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) are the future of AD risk assessment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between plasma-measured phosphorylated tau (p-tau181), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and neurofilament light (NfL) levels and risk of clinical AD incidence with consideration to the impact of cardiovascular health. METHODS: Within a community-based cohort, biomarker levels were measured at baseline using single molecule array technology in 768 participants (aged 50-75) followed over 17 years. Associations among biomarkers and AD, vascular dementia, and mixed dementia incidence were assessed. RESULTS: GFAP was associated with clinical AD incidence even more than a decade before diagnosis (9-17 years), while p-tau181 and NfL were associated with more intermediate AD risk (within 9 years). Significant interaction was detected between cardiovascular health and p-tau181/NfL. DISCUSSION: GFAP may be an early AD biomarker increasing before p-tau181 and NfL and the effect modifying role of cardiovascular health should be considered in biomarker risk stratification.

High cholesterol levels change the association of biomarkers of neurodegenerative diseases with dementia risk: Findings from a population-based cohort.

INTRODUCTION: This study assessed whether in a population with comorbidity of neurodegenerative and cerebrovascular disease (mixed pathology) the association of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), neurofilament light chain (NfL), and phosphorylated tau181 (p-tau181) with dementia risk varied depending on levels of total cholesterol and apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype. METHODS: Plasma biomarkers were measured using Simoa technology in 768 participants of a nested case-control study embedded within an ongoing population-based cohort. Logistic and spline regression models, and receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated. RESULTS: The strength of the association between GFAP and NfL with risk of a clinical diagnosis of dementia changed depending on cholesterol levels and on APOE ε4 genotype. No significant association was seen with p-tau181. DISCUSSION: In individuals with mixed pathology blood GFAP and NfL are better predictors of dementia risk than p-tau181, and their associations with dementia risk are amplified by hypercholesterolemia, also depending on APOE ε4 genotype. HIGHLIGHTS: Cholesterol levels changed the association of blood biomarkers with dementia risk. Blood biomarkers seem to perform differently in community- and clinic-based cohorts. Neurofilament light chain might be a biomarker candidate for dementia risk after stroke.

Vitamin D-binding protein, total, "nonbioavailable," bioavailable, and free 25-hydroxyvitamin D, and mortality in a large population-based cohort of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies consistently find low concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) in blood to be associated with increased mortality, and a recent large-scale Mendelian randomization study strongly supports a causal relationship among individuals with low vitamin D status. Evolving evidence suggested that bioavailable or free 25(OH)D may better predict mortality. We aimed to compare the prognostic values of vitamin D-binding protein (VDBP), total, bioavailable, complementary "nonbioavailable", and free 25(OH)D for total and cause-specific mortality in a large population-based cohort study of older adults from Germany. METHODS: Bioavailable, complementary "nonbioavailable", and free 25(OH)D concentrations were calculated among 5899 participants aged 50-75 years, based on serum concentrations of total 25(OH)D, VDBP, and albumin. The cohort was followed with respect to total and cause-specific mortality from recruitment in 2001-2002 up to the end of 2018. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the associations between various vitamin D biomarkers and mortality, and further stratified by vitamin D status. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 17.1 years, 1739 participants died, of whom 575, 584, and 94 died of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively. Very similar inverse associations with total mortality (hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation decrease: 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11, 1.24 for total 25(OH)D; HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.21 for bioavailable 25(OH)D; HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.18 for free 25(OH)D) and cause-specific mortalities were seen for all biomarkers of vitamin D status. The strongest associations were consistently seen for respiratory mortality. These inverse associations were strongest among participants with low vitamin D levels (<50 nmol/L). No significant associations were seen between VDBP and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Total, nonbioavailable, bioavailable, and free 25(OH)D showed very similar inverse associations with total and cause-specific mortality, which were strongest among those with low vitamin D status in this large population-based cohort.

Risk of Late-Onset Depression and Cognitive Decline: Results From Inflammatory Proteome Analyses in a Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Research suggests that inflammation is linked to both late-onset depression (LOD) and cognitive decline, and that LOD might have biological underpinnings differentiating it from recurrent depression. Evidence from inflammatory proteome analyses in large prospective cohorts is scarce. The aim of this study was to assess whether and which inflammation-related biomarkers are associated with LOD, recurrent depression, and cognitive decline due to vascular pathology (vascular dementia). DESIGN: Ongoing population-based cohort study of older adults followed for up to 17 years with regard to clinical diagnosis of various age-related diseases (ESTHER study, n = 9,940). SETTING: Longitudinal cohort started in 2000-2002 in a community setting in Saarland, a southwestern German state. PARTICIPANTS: Subgroup of randomly selected participants of the ESTHER study (n = 1,665). MEASUREMENTS: Inflammatory biomarkers were measured with the Olink Target 96 in baseline samples. RESULTS: Out of 78 biomarkers interleukin 10 (IL-10) and C-C chemokine ligand 4 (CCL4) were associated with significantly increased risk of LOD after multiple testing correction. Hazard ratios (95-confidence interval) per 1 standard deviation increase were 1.37 (1.15-1.63) for IL-10 and 1.34 (1.13-1.59) for CCL4. None of the inflammatory markers was associated with recurrent depression. The dose-response analysis showed a similar monotonic risk increase for LOD and vascular dementia with increasing IL-10 levels. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that inflammatory markers are involved in the etiology of LOD, but not of recurrent depression and that LOD and vascular dementia might share common inflammatory etiology with respect to IL-10.

Framework and baseline examination of the German National Cohort (NAKO).

The German National Cohort (NAKO) is a multidisciplinary, population-based prospective cohort study that aims to investigate the causes of widespread diseases, identify risk factors and improve early detection and prevention of disease. Specifically, NAKO is designed to identify novel and better characterize established risk and protection factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, neurodegenerative and psychiatric diseases, musculoskeletal diseases, respiratory and infectious diseases in a random sample of the general population. Between 2014 and 2019, a total of 205,415 men and women aged 19-74 years were recruited and examined in 18 study centres in Germany. The baseline assessment included a face-to-face interview, self-administered questionnaires and a wide range of biomedical examinations. Biomaterials were collected from all participants including serum, EDTA plasma, buffy coats, RNA and erythrocytes, urine, saliva, nasal swabs and stool. In 56,971 participants, an intensified examination programme was implemented. Whole-body 3T magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 30,861 participants on dedicated scanners. NAKO collects follow-up information on incident diseases through a combination of active follow-up using self-report via written questionnaires at 2-3 year intervals and passive follow-up via record linkages. All study participants are invited for re-examinations at the study centres in 4-5 year intervals. Thereby, longitudinal information on changes in risk factor profiles and in vascular, cardiac, metabolic, neurocognitive, pulmonary and sensory function is collected. NAKO is a major resource for population-based epidemiology to identify new and tailored strategies for early detection, prediction, prevention and treatment of major diseases for the next 30 years.

Subjective short-term memory difficulties at ages 50-75 predict dementia risk in a community-based cohort followed over 17 years.

INTRODUCTION: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) is an established precursor of dementia. However, the relationship between SCD and dementia has been mostly studied among people aged 65+. We aimed to assess the association between subjective memory difficulties at ages 50-75 with all-cause dementia and dementia-subtypes in a community-based cohort with long-term follow-up. METHODS: 6,190 individuals (51% female) aged 50-75 years (median age, 62) attending a general health examination (by a total of 684 general practitioners) in Saarland, Germany, in 2000-2002 were recruited for a community-based cohort study. Subjective difficulties regarding short-term and long-term memory were assessed at baseline with two simple yes/no questions. Associations with dementia (-subtypes) diagnoses during 17 years of follow-up were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 492 participants were diagnosed with dementia during 17 years of follow-up. Participants with short-term memory difficulties were at higher risk to receive incident all-cause dementia and vascular dementia diagnoses both within 0-9 years (age and sex adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), 1.80 and 2.00, respectively) and within 0-17 years (aHR 1.55 and 1.78, respectively) from recruitment (P < 0.05 in all cases). For clinical Alzheimer's disease, a significant association was only seen within the initial 6 years. There were no associations of long-term memory difficulties with any type of dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Subjective difficulties in short-term memory predict both intermediate and long-term risk of vascular and all-cause dementia even among late middle-age adults. These results underline the importance of cardiovascular disease prevention efforts well before old age for maintaining cognitive health.

Mortality and morbidity risk prediction for older former smokers based on a score of smoking history: evidence from UK Biobank and ESTHER cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Rapid population ageing has raised the proportion of older former smokers considerably, but a comprehensive assessment tool of former smoking-related health risks is absent. OBJECTIVE: We utilised the large-scale data of UK Biobank and ESTHER study to build a former smoking score (FSS) for older former smokers using three major former smoking traits: pack-years, smoking duration and time since smoking cessation. DESIGN: UK Biobank and ESTHER study are two cohorts of older adults with 502,528 and 9,940 participants from the UK and Germany, respectively. METHODS: Smoking history and covariates were retrieved from the self-administrated questionnaires and mortality and morbidity data were obtained through regular linkages to hospital records. RESULTS: We constructed the FSS based on the 94,446 former smokers of UK Biobank by retrieving the averaged effect estimates of each trait with a 100-time random sampling. This score was robustly associated with higher risks of mortality and incidence of major smoking-related diseases, outperforming each trait. In the validation panel of 2,683 former smokers from ESTHER study, the FSS was highly predictive of mortality and morbidities. Particularly, compared with the 1st quartile of the FSS group, the 4th quartile group had 114.1, 104.5 and 158.9% higher risks of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality, respectively, and 41.9, 31.9, 52.4 and 831.3% higher risks of incident CVD, type 2 diabetes, any cancers and lung cancer, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the large potential of refined risk assessment of former smokers by more comprehensive consideration of the major traits of former smoking.