Primary care consultations for respiratory tract symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cohort study including 70,000 people in South West England.

BACKGROUND: Primary care consultations for respiratory tract symptoms including identifying and managing COVID-19 during the pandemic have not been characterized. METHODS: A retrospective cohort analysis using routinely collected records from 70,431 adults aged 18+ in South England within the Electronic Care and Health Information Analytics (CHIA) database. Total volume and type of consultations (face-to-face, home visits, telephone, email/video, or out of hours) for respiratory tract symptoms between 1 January and 31 July 2020 (during the first wave of the pandemic) were compared with the equivalent period in 2019 for the same cohort. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize consultations by sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, and by COVID-19 diagnosis and outcomes (death, hospitalization, and pneumonia). RESULTS: Overall consultations for respiratory tract symptoms increased by 229% during the pandemic compared with the preceding year. This included significant increases in telephone consultations by 250%, a 1,574% increase in video/email consultations, 105% increase in home visits, and 92% increase in face-to-face consultations. Nearly 60% of people who presented with respiratory symptoms were tested for COVID-19 and 16% confirmed or clinically suspected to have the virus. Those with complications including pneumonia, requiring hospitalization, and who died were more likely to be seen in-person. CONCLUSION: During the pandemic, primary care substantially increased consultations for respiratory tract symptoms to identify and manage people with COVID-19. These findings should be balanced against national reports of reduced GP workload for non-COVID care.

Ethnic minority disparities in progression and mortality of pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease: a systematic scoping review.

BACKGROUND: There are a growing number of studies on ethnic differences in progression and mortality for pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but this literature has yet to be synthesised, particularly for studies on mortality. METHODS: This scoping review synthesized existing literature on ethnic differences in progression and mortality for adults with pre-dialysis CKD, explored factors contributing to these differences, and identified gaps in the literature. A comprehensive search strategy using search terms for ethnicity and CKD was taken to identify potentially relevant studies. Nine databases were searched from 1992 to June 2017, with an updated search in February 2020. RESULTS: 8059 articles were identified and screened. Fifty-five studies (2 systematic review, 7 non-systematic reviews, and 46 individual studies) were included in this review. Most were US studies and compared African-American/Afro-Caribbean and Caucasian populations, and fewer studies assessed outcomes for Hispanics and Asians. Most studies reported higher risk of CKD progression in Afro-Caribbean/African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, lower risk of mortality for Asians, and mixed findings on risk of mortality for Afro-Caribbean/African-Americans and Hispanics, compared to Caucasians. Biological factors such as hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease contributed to increased risk of progression for ethnic minorities but did not increase risk of mortality in these groups. CONCLUSIONS: Higher rates of renal replacement therapy among ethnic minorities may be partly due to increased risk of progression and reduced mortality in these groups. The review identifies gaps in the literature and highlights a need for a more structured approach by researchers that would allow higher confidence in single studies and better harmonization of data across studies to advance our understanding of CKD progression and mortality.

The association between stress and multiple long-term conditions: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Stress is an important predictor of long-term conditions. We examine whether hair cortisol (a biomarker of stress) is associated with incidence and accumulation of multiple long-term conditions (MLTC). METHODS: We included data from 4295 individuals aged ≥50 years within the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing dataset with data on hair cortisol, sociodemographic and health behaviour variables. Cox proportional hazards models were used to quantify the association between hair cortisol at baseline and accumulation of MLTC between 2012/2013 and 2018/2019, both for individuals with and without MLTC at baseline. RESULTS: Our cohort included 1458 (34.0%) individuals who accumulated MLTC between 2012/2013 and 2018/2019. The proportion of individuals with zero, 1, and ≥ 2 conditions at baseline who accumulated MLTC were 12.0% (n = 127), 40.4% (n = 520), and 41.7% (n = 811), respectively. Higher cortisol levels were associated with higher risk of accumulation of MLTC in both unadjusted [HR:1.15(1.05-1.25)] and models adjusted for sociodemographic and health behaviours [HR:1.12(1.02-1.22)]. For individuals without MLTC at baseline, higher cortisol levels were significantly associated with higher risk of developing MLTC in unadjusted [HR: 1.20(1.05-1.36)] and adjusted models [HR: 1.16(1.02-1.32)]. CONCLUSION: The study provides the first evidence of the role of stress in the development and accumulation of MLTC. This modifiable risk factor could be targeted to reduce the risk of MLTC. However, further work is needed to better understand the mechanisms and pathways that link stress and accumulation of MLTC.

Even short periods of diabetes remission are linked to lower risk of heart attack and stroke.

The studyDambha-Miller H, Hounkpatin HO, Stuart B, Farmer A, Griffin S. Type 2 diabetes remission trajectories and variation in risk of diabetes complications: a population-based cohort study. PLoS ONE 2023;18. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0290791To read the full NIHR Alert, go to: https://evidence.nihr.ac.uk/alert/even-short-periods-of-diabetes-remission-are-linked-to-lower-risk-of-heart-attack-and-stroke/.

Multiple long-term conditions, loneliness and social isolation: A scoping review of recent quantitative studies.

BACKGROUND: Multiple long-term conditions (MLTC), loneliness and social isolation are common in older adults. Recent studies have explored the association of MLTC with loneliness and social isolation. This scoping review aimed to map this current evidence and identify gaps in the literature. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted following the PRISMA guidelines for scoping reviews. Ovid Medline, Embase, CINAHL, The Cochrane Library, PsycInfo, and Bielefeld Academic Search Engine were searched for studies published between January 2020-April 2023. Quantitative studies, published in any language, that assessed the association of MLTC with loneliness and/or social isolation were included. RESULTS: 1827 records were identified and screened. Of these, 17 met inclusion criteria. Most studies were cross-sectional and based on older adults. Studies were conducted in Europe, the US, Canada, and low- and middle-income countries. Ten studies focused on the association between MLTC and loneliness, six assessed the association between MLTC and social isolation and one examined associations with both loneliness and social isolation. Most studies reported a significant cross-sectional association of MLTC with loneliness, but there was weaker evidence for a longitudinal association between MLTC and loneliness and an association between MLTC and social isolation. Studies were heterogenous in terms of measures and definitions of loneliness/social isolation and MLTC, confounders adjusted for, and analytical models used, making comparisons difficult. CONCLUSIONS: Further population-based longitudinal studies using consistent measures and methodological approaches are needed to improve understanding of the association of MLTC with both loneliness and social isolation.

NSAID prescribing and adverse outcomes in common infections: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Infections in primary care are often treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). This study evaluates whether NSAID prescribing is associated with adverse outcomes for respiratory (RTIs) or urinary track (UTI) infections. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether there is an association between NSAID prescribing and the rate of adverse outcomes for infections for individual consulting in primary care. DESIGN: Cohort study of electronic health records. SETTING: 87 general practices in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD. PARTICIPANTS: 142 925 patients consulting with RTI or UTI. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Repeat consultations, hospitalisation or death within 30 days of the initial consultation for RTI or UTI. Poisson models estimated the associations between NSAID exposure and outcome. Rate ratios were adjusted for gender, age, ethnicity, deprivation, antibiotic use, seasonal influenza vaccination status, comorbidities and general practice. Since prescribing variations by practice are not explained by case mix-hence, less impacted by confounding by indication-both individual-level and practice-level analyses are included. RESULTS: There was an increase in hospital admission/death for acute NSAID prescriptions (RR 2.73, 95% CI 2.10 to 3.56) and repeated NSAID prescriptions (6.47, 4.46-9.39) in RTI patients, and for acute NSAID prescriptions for UTI (RR 3.03; 1.92 to 4.76). Practice-level analysis, controlling for practice population characteristics, found that for each percentage point increase in NSAID prescription, the percentages of hospital admission/death within 30 days increased by 0.32 percentage points (95% CI 0.16 to 0.47). CONCLUSIONS: In this non-randomised study, prescription of NSAIDs at consultations for RTI or UTIs in primary care is infrequent but may be associated with increased risk of hospital admission. This supports other observational and limited trial data that NSAID prescribing might be associated with worse outcomes following acute infection and should be prescribed with caution.

Type 2 diabetes remission trajectories and variation in risk of diabetes complications: A population-based cohort study.

Biochemical remission of type 2 diabetes is achievable through dietary changes, physical activity and subsequent weight loss. We aim to identify distinct diabetes remission trajectories in a large population-based cohort over seven-years follow-up and to examine associations between remission trajectories and diabetes complications. Group-based trajectory modelling examined longitudinal patterns of HbA1c level (adjusting for remission status) over time. Multivariable Cox models quantified the association between each remission trajectory and microvascular complications, macrovascular complications, cardiovascular (CVD) events and all-cause mortality. Four groups were assigned. Group 1 (8,112 [13.5%]; achieving HbA1c <48 mmol/mol (6.5%) followed by increasing HbA1c levels); Group 2 (6,369 [10.6%]; decreasing HbA1c levels >48 mmol/mol (6.5%)); Group 3 (36,557 [60.6%]; stable high HbA1c levels); Group 4 (9,249 [15.3%]; stable low HbA1c levels (<48mmol/mol or <6.5%)). Compared to Group 3, Groups 1 and 4 had lower risk of microvascular complications (aHRs (95% CI): 0.65 (0.61-0.70), p-value <0.001;0.59 (0.55-0.64) p-value<0.001, respectively)), macrovascular complications (aHRs (95% CI): 0.83 (0.75-0.92), p-value<0.001; 0.66 (0.61-0.71), p-value<0.001) and CVD events (aHRs (95% CI): 0.74(0.67-0.83), p-value<0.001; 0.67(0.61-0.73), p-vlaue<0.001). Risk of CVD outcomes were similar for Groups 2 and 3. Compared to Group 3, Group 1 (aHR: 0.82(95% CI: 0.76-0.89)) had lower risk of mortality, but Group 4 had higher risk of mortality (aHR: 1.11(95% CI: 1.03-1.19)). Risk of CVD outcomes vary by pattern of remission over time, with lowest risk for those in remission longer. People who achieve remission, even for shorter periods of time, continue to benefit from this lower exposure to hyperglycaemia, which may, in turn, lower the risk of CVD outcomes including mortality.

Post-consultation acute respiratory tract infection recovery: a latent class-informed analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of evidence regarding post-consultation symptom trajectories for patients with respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and whether patient characteristics can be used to predict illness duration. AIM: To describe symptom trajectories in patients with RTIs, and assess baseline characteristics and adverse events associated with trajectories. DESIGN AND SETTING: The study included data about 9103 adults and children from 12 primary care studies. METHOD: A latent class-informed regression analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials and observational cohort studies was undertaken. Post-consultation symptom trajectory (severity and duration), re-consultation with same or worsening illness, and admission to hospital were assessed. RESULTS: In total, 90% of participants recovered from all symptoms by 28 days, regardless of antibiotic prescribing strategy (none, immediate, and delayed antibiotics). For studies of RTI with cough as a dominant symptom (n = 5314), four trajectories were identified: 'rapid (6 days)' (90% of participants recovered within 6 days) in 52.0%; 'intermediate (10 days)' (28.9%); 'slow progressive improvement (27 days)' (12.5%); and 'slow improvement with initial high symptom burden (27 days)' (6.6%). For cough, being aged 16-64 years (odds ratio [OR] 2.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.72 to 3.85 compared with <16 years), higher presenting illness baseline severity (OR 1.51, 95% CI = 1.12 to 2.03), presence of lung disease (OR 1.78, 95% CI = 1.44 to 2.21), and median and above illness duration before consultation (≥7 days) (OR 1.99, 95% CI = 1.68 to 2.37) were associated with slower recovery (>10 days) compared with faster recovery (≤10 days). Re-consultations and admissions to hospital for cough were higher in those with slower recovery (ORs: 2.15, 95% CI = 1.78 to 2.60 and 7.42, 95% CI = 3.49 to 15.78, respectively). CONCLUSION: Older patients presenting with more severe, longer pre-consultation symptoms and chronic lung disease should be advised they are more likely to experience longer post-consultation illness durations, and that recovery rates are similar with and without antibiotics.

Primary care service utilisation and outcomes in type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal cohort analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To describe primary care utilisation patterns among adults with type 2 diabetes and to quantify the association between utilisation and long-term health outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: 168 primary care practices in Southern England within the Electronic Care and Health Information Analytics database between 2013 and 2020. PARTICIPANTS: 110 240 adults with Quality and Outcomes Framework read code of type 2 diabetes diagnosis; age greater than 18 years; linked and continuous records available from April 2013 until April 2020 (or death). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Rates of service utilisation (total number of primary care contacts per quarter) across the study period; (2) participant characteristics associated with higher and lower rates of service utilisation; and (3) associations between service utilisation and (A) cardiovascular disease (CVD events) and (B) all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Mean (SD) number of primary care attendances per quarter in the cohort of 110 240 went from 2.49 (2.01) in 2013 to 2.78 (2.06) in 2020. Patients in the highest usage tertile were more likely to be female, older, more frail, white, from the least deprived quintile and to have five or more comorbidities. In adjusted models, higher rates of service utilisation (per consultation) were associated with higher rates of CVD events (OR 1.0058; 95% CI 1.0053 to 1.0062; p<0.001) and mortality (OR 1.0057; 95% CI 1.0051 to 1.0064; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: People with type 2 diabetes are using primary care services more frequently, but increased volume of clinical care does not correlate with better outcomes, although this finding may be driven by more unwell patients contacting services more frequently. Further research on the nature and content of contacts is required to understand how to tailor services to deliver effective care to those at greatest risk of complications.

Development and Validation of Population Clusters for Integrating Health and Social Care: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study in Multiple Long-Term Conditions (Cluster-Artificial Intelligence for Multiple Long-Term Conditions).

BACKGROUND: Multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) (MLTC-M) are increasingly prevalent and associated with high rates of morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditure. Strategies to address this have primarily focused on the biological aspects of disease, but MLTC-M also result from and are associated with additional psychosocial, economic, and environmental barriers. A shift toward more personalized, holistic, and integrated care could be effective. This could be made more efficient by identifying groups of populations based on their health and social needs. In turn, these will contribute to evidence-based solutions supporting delivery of interventions tailored to address the needs pertinent to each cluster. Evidence is needed on how to generate clusters based on health and social needs and quantify the impact of clusters on long-term health and costs. OBJECTIVE: We intend to develop and validate population clusters that consider determinants of health and social care needs for people with MLTC-M using data-driven machine learning (ML) methods compared to expert-driven approaches within primary care national databases, followed by evaluation of cluster trajectories and their association with health outcomes and costs. METHODS: The mixed methods program of work with parallel work streams include the following: (1) qualitative semistructured interview studies exploring patient, caregiver, and professional views on clinical and socioeconomic factors influencing experiences of living with or seeking care in MLTC-M; (2) modified Delphi with relevant stakeholders to generate variables on health and social (wider) determinants and to examine the feasibility of including these variables within existing primary care databases; and (3) cohort study with expert-driven segmentation, alongside data-driven algorithms. Outputs will be compared, clusters characterized, and trajectories over time examined to quantify associations with mortality, additional long-term conditions, worsening frailty, disease severity, and 10-year health and social care costs. RESULTS: The study will commence in October 2021 and is expected to be completed by October 2023. CONCLUSIONS: By studying MLTC-M clusters, we will assess how more personalized care can be developed, how accurate costs can be provided, and how to better understand the personal and medical profiles and environment of individuals within each cluster. Integrated care that considers "whole persons" and their environment is essential in addressing the complex, diverse, and individual needs of people living with MLTC-M. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/34405.

Change in treatment burden among people with multimorbidity: a follow-up survey.

BACKGROUND: Treatment burden is the effort required of patients to look after their health and the impact this has on their functioning and wellbeing. Little is known about change in treatment burden over time for people with multimorbidity. AIM: To quantify change in treatment burden, determine factors associated with this change, and evaluate a revised single-item measure for high treatment burden in older adults with multimorbidity. DESIGN AND SETTING: A 2.5-year follow-up of a cross-sectional postal survey via six general practices in Dorset, England. METHOD: GP practices identified participants of the baseline survey. Data on treatment burden (measured using the Multimorbidity Treatment Burden Questionnaire; MTBQ), sociodemographics, clinical variables, health literacy, and financial resource were collected. Change in treatment burden was described, and associations assessed using regression models. Diagnostic test performance metrics evaluated the revised single-item measure relative to the MTBQ. RESULTS: In total, 300 participants were recruited (77.3% response rate). Overall, there was a mean increase of 2.6 (standard deviation 11.2) points in treatment burden global score. Ninety-eight (32.7%) and 53 (17.7%) participants experienced an increase and decrease, respectively, in treatment burden category. An increase in treatment burden was associated with having >5 long-term conditions (adjusted ß 8.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.20 to 12.32) and living >10 minutes (versus ≤10 minutes) from the GP (adjusted ß 3.88, 95% CI = 1.32 to 6.43), particularly for participants with limited health literacy (mean difference: adjusted ß 9.59, 95% CI = 2.17 to 17.00). The single-item measure performed moderately (sensitivity 55.7%; specificity 92.4%. CONCLUSION: Treatment burden changes over time. Improving access to primary care, particularly for those living further away from services, and enhancing health literacy may mitigate increases in burden.

Association of type 2 diabetes remission and risk of cardiovascular disease in pre-defined subgroups.

AIM: To quantify the association between type 2 diabetes remission and 5-year incidence of cardiovascular disease outcomes, overall and in pre-defined subgroups. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of 60,287 adults with type 2 diabetes from the Care and Health Information Analytics (CHIA) database. Multivariable Cox models were used to assess the association between remission within the first two years of follow-up and incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes including events, microvascular and macrovascular complications at 7-year follow-up. Effect modification by age, sex, diabetes duration, pre-existing CVD, baseline body mass index (BMI) and HbA1c level was assessed. RESULTS: 7489 (12.4%) people achieved remission during the first two years of follow-up. Overall, remission was associated with lower risk of CVD outcomes. Remission was associated with lower risk of microvascular complications for younger compared with older age groups (eg aHR: 0.59 (0.41-0.84) and aHR: 0.78 (0.67-0.92) for those aged <45 years and 75-84 years, respectively). Amongst those achieving remission, those with no or 1-2 comorbidities had lower risk of microvascular complications (aHR: 0.65 (0.56-0.75)) compared to those with more than three comorbidities (aHR: 0.83 (0.69-0.99), respectively). There were no significant interactions in the remaining subgroups or for models assessing CVD events or macrovascular complications. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving remission of type 2 diabetes is associated with a lower risk of microvascular complications, particularly for younger groups and those with fewer comorbidities. Targeted interventions that focus on promoting remission in these groups may reduce the impact of microvascular complications and associated health costs.

Understanding GPs' views and experiences of using clinical prediction rules in the management of respiratory infections: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) account for 60% of antibiotic prescribing in primary care. Several clinical prediction rules (CPRs) have been developed to help reduce unnecessary prescribing for RTIs, but there is a lack of studies exploring whether or how these CPRs are being used in UK general practice. AIM: To explore UK GPs' views and experiences with regards to RTI CPRs, and to identify barriers and facilitators to their use in practice. DESIGN & SETTING: A qualitative analysis of interviews with in-hours GPs working in the South and South West of England. METHOD: Semi-structured qualitative telephone interviews were conducted, digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using an inductive thematic approach. Patient and public involvement representatives contributed to study design and interpretation of findings. RESULTS: Thirty-two GPs were interviewed. Some CPRs were more commonly used than others. Participants used CPRs to facilitate patient-clinician discussion, confirm and support their decision, and document the consultation. GPs also highlighted concerns including lack of time, inability of CPRs to incorporate patient complexity, a shift in focus from the patient during consultations, and limited use in remote consultation (during the COVID-19 pandemic). CONCLUSION: This study highlights the need for user-friendly CPRs that are readily integrated into computer systems, and easily embedded into routine practice to complement clinical decision-making. Existing CPRs need to be validated for other populations where demographics and clinical characteristics may differ, as well different settings including remote consultations and self-assessment.

Change in treatment burden among people with multimorbidity: Protocol of a follow up survey and development of efficient measurement tools for primary care.

BACKGROUND: Treatment burden is the effort required of patients to look after their health and the impact this has on their functioning and wellbeing. It is likely treatment burden changes over time as circumstances change for patients and health services. However, there are a lack of population-level studies of treatment burden change and factors associated with this change over time. Furthermore, there are currently no practical screening tools for treatment burden in time-pressured clinical settings or at population level. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a three-year follow-up of a cross-sectional survey of 723 people with multimorbidity (defined as three or more long-term conditions; LTCs) registered at GP practices in in Dorset, England. The survey will repeat collection of information on treatment burden (using the 10-item Multimorbidity Treatment Burden Questionnaire (MTBQ) and a novel single-item screening tool), sociodemographics, medications, LTCs, health literacy and financial resource, as at baseline. Descriptive statistics will be used to compare change in treatment burden since the baseline survey in 2019 and associations of treatment burden change will be assessed using regression methods. Diagnostic test accuracy metrics will be used to evaluate the single-item treatment burden screening tool using the MTBQ as the gold-standard. Routine primary care data (including demographics, medications, LTCs, and healthcare usage data) will be extracted from medical records for consenting participants. A forward-stepwise, likelihood-ratio logistic regression model building approach will be employed in order to assess the utility of routine data metrics in quantifying treatment burden in comparison to self-reported treatment burden using the MTBQ. IMPACT: To the authors' knowledge, this will be the first study investigating longitudinal aspects of treatment burden. Findings will improve understanding of the extent to which treatment burden changes over time for people with multimorbidity and factors contributing to this change, as well as allowing better identification of people at risk of high treatment burden.

Delayed antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract infections: individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the overall effect of delayed antibiotic prescribing on average symptom severity for patients with respiratory tract infections in the community, and to identify any factors modifying this effect. DESIGN: Systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, EBSCO CINAHL Plus, and Web of Science. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: Randomised controlled trials and observational cohort studies in a community setting that allowed comparison between delayed versus no antibiotic prescribing, and delayed versus immediate antibiotic prescribing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the average symptom severity two to four days after the initial consultation measured on a seven item scale (ranging from normal to as bad as could be). Secondary outcomes were duration of illness after the initial consultation, complications resulting in admission to hospital or death, reconsultation with the same or worsening illness, and patient satisfaction rated on a Likert scale. RESULTS: Data were obtained from nine randomised controlled trials and four observational studies, totalling 55 682 patients. No difference was found in follow-up symptom severity (seven point scale) for delayed versus immediate antibiotics (adjusted mean difference -0.003, 95% confidence interval -0.12 to 0.11) or delayed versus no antibiotics (0.02, -0.11 to 0.15). Symptom duration was slightly longer in those given delayed versus immediate antibiotics (11.4 v 10.9 days), but was similar for delayed versus no antibiotics. Complications resulting in hospital admission or death were lower with delayed versus no antibiotics (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 1.27) and delayed versus immediate antibiotics (0.78, 0.53 to 1.13). A significant reduction in reconsultation rates (odds ratio 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.87) and an increase in patient satisfaction (adjusted mean difference 0.09, 0.06 to 0.11) were observed in delayed versus no antibiotics. The effect of delayed versus immediate antibiotics and delayed versus no antibiotics was not modified by previous duration of illness, fever, comorbidity, or severity of symptoms. Children younger than 5 years had a slightly higher follow-up symptom severity with delayed antibiotics than with immediate antibiotics (adjusted mean difference 0.10, 95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.18), but no increased severity was found in the older age group. CONCLUSIONS: Delayed antibiotic prescribing is a safe and effective strategy for most patients, including those in higher risk subgroups. Delayed prescribing was associated with similar symptom duration as no antibiotic prescribing and is unlikely to lead to poorer symptom control than immediate antibiotic prescribing. Delayed prescribing could reduce reconsultation rates and is unlikely to be associated with an increase in symptoms or illness duration, except in young children. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018079400.

Comparing indices of relative deprivation using behavioural evidence.

What measure of relative deprivation best predicts health? While numerous indices of relative deprivation exist, few studies have compared how well different measures account for empirical data. Hounkpatin et al. (2016) demonstrated that the relative ranked position of an individual i's income within a comparison group (their relative rank) was a better predictor of i's health than i's relative deprivation as assessed by the widely-used Yitzhaki index. In their commentary, Stark and Jakubek (2020) argue that both relative rank and relative deprivation may matter, and they develop a composite index. Here we identify some issues with their composite index, develop an alternative based on behavioural evidence, and test the various indices against data. Although almost all existing indices assume that the significance of an income yj to an individual with income yi (yj>yi) will be some increasing function of the difference between yj and yi, we find that the influence of j's income on i's health is actually a reducing function of (yj-yi). This finding - that less significance is assigned to distant higher incomes than to near higher incomes - is consistent with the well-established idea that we compare ourselves primarily to similar others.

The association of socioeconomic status with incidence and outcomes of acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Socioeconomic status may be negatively associated with AKI as some risk factors for AKI such as chronic kidney disease, diabetes and heart failure are socially distributed. This study explored the socioeconomic gradient of the incidence and mortality of AKI, after adjusting for important mediators such as comorbidities. METHODS: Linked primary care and laboratory data from two large acute hospitals in the south of England, sourced from the Care and Health Information Analytics database, were used to identify AKI cases over a 1-year period (2017-18) from a population of 580 940 adults. AKI was diagnosed from serum creatinine patterns using a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes-based definition. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities and prescribed medication (in incidence analyses) and AKI severity (in mortality analyses), were used to assess the association of area deprivation (using Index of Multiple Deprivation for place of residence) with AKI risk and all-cause mortality over a median (interquartile range) of 234 days (119-356). RESULTS: Annual incidence rate of first AKI was 1726/100 000 (1.7%). The risk of AKI was higher in the most deprived compared with the least deprived areas [adjusted odds ratio = 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-2.01 and 1.33, 95% CI 1.03-1.72 for <65 and >65 year old, respectively] after controlling for age, sex, comorbidities and prescribed medication. Adjusted risk of mortality post first AKI was higher in the most deprived areas (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.36). CONCLUSIONS: Social deprivation was associated with higher incidence of AKI and poorer survival even after adjusting for the higher presence of comorbidities. Such social inequity should be considered when devising strategies to prevent AKI and improve care for AKI patients.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in adults in England: comparison of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from 2003 to 2016.

OBJECTIVES: To identify recent trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence in England and explore their association with changes in sociodemographic, behavioural and clinical factors. DESIGN: Pooled cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: Health Survey for England 2003, 2009/2010 combined and 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 17 663 individuals (aged 16+) living in private households. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and albuminuria (measured by albumin-creatinine ratio) during 2009/2010 and 2016 and trends in eGFR between 2003 and 2016. eGFR was estimated using serum creatinine Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equations. RESULTS: GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 prevalence was 7.7% (95% CI 7.1% to 8.4%), 7.0% (6.4% to 7.7%) and 7.3%(6.5% to 8.2%) in 2003, 2009/2010 and 2016, respectively. Albuminuria prevalence was 8.7% (8.1% to 9.5%) in 2009/2010 and 9.8% (8.7% to 10.9%) in 2016. Prevalence of CKD G1-5 (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria) was 12.6% (11.8% to 13.4%) in 2009/2010 and 13.9% (12.8% to 15.2%) in 2016. Prevalence of diabetes and obesity increased during 2003-2016 while prevalence of hypertension and smoking fell. The age-adjusted and gender-adjusted OR of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 2016 versus 2009/2010 was 0.99 (0.82 to 1.18) and fully adjusted OR was 1.13 (0.93 to 1.37). There was no significant period effect on the prevalence of albuminuria or CKD G1-5 from 2009/2010 to 2016 in age and gender or fully adjusted models. CONCLUSION: The fall in eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 seen from 2003 to 2009/2010 did not continue to 2016. However, absolute CKD burden is likely to rise with population growth and ageing, particularly if diabetes prevalence continues to increase. This highlights the need for greater CKD prevention efforts and continued surveillance.

Patients' and kidney care team's perspectives of treatment burden and capacity in older people with chronic kidney disease: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is often a multimorbid condition and progression to more severe disease is commonly associated with increased management requirements, including lifestyle change, more medication and greater clinician involvement. This study explored patients' and kidney care team's perspectives of the nature and extent of this workload (treatment burden) and factors that support capacity (the ability to manage health) for older individuals with CKD. DESIGN: Qualitative semistructured interview and focus group study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Adults (aged 60+) with predialysis CKD stages G3-5 (identified in two general practitioner surgeries and two renal clinics) and a multiprofessional secondary kidney care team in the UK. RESULTS: 29 individuals and 10 kidney team members were recruited. Treatment burden themes were: (1) understanding CKD, its treatment and consequences, (2) adhering to treatments and management and (3) interacting with others (eg, clinicians) in the management of CKD. Capacity themes were: (1) personal attributes (eg, optimism, pragmatism), (2) support network (family/friends, service providers), (3) financial capacity, environment (eg, geographical distance to unit) and life responsibilities (eg, caring for others). Patients reported poor provision of CKD information and lack of choice in treatment, whereas kidney care team members discussed health literacy issues. Patients reported having to withdraw from social activities and loss of employment due to CKD, which further impacted their capacity. CONCLUSION: Improved understanding of and measures to reduce the treatment burden (eg, clear information, simplified medication, joined up care, free parking) associated with CKD in individuals as well as assessment of their capacity and interventions to improve capacity (social care, psychological support) will likely improve patient experience and their engagement with kidney care services.