RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Anthrax, a soil-borne zoonosis caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is enzootic in areas of North America with frequent outbreaks in west Texas. Despite a long history of study, pathogen transmission during natural outbreaks remains poorly understood. Here we combined case-level spatio-temporal analysis and high resolution genotyping to investigate anthrax transmission dynamics. Carcass locations from a single white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginanus, outbreak were analyzed for spatial clustering using K-function analysis and directionality with trend surface analysis and the direction test. RESULTS: The directionalities were compared to results of high resolution genotyping. The results of the spatial clustering analyses, combined with deer movement data, suggest anthrax transmission events occur within limited spatial areas, with carcass locations occurring within the activity space of adjacent cases. The directionality of the outbreak paralleled adjacent dry river beds. Isolates from the outbreak were represented by a single genotype based on multiple locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA); four sub-genotypes were identified using single nucleotide repeat (SNR) analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Areas of high transmission agreed spatially with areas of higher SNR genetic diversity; however, SNRs did not provide clear evidence of linear transmission. Overlap of case home ranges provides spatial and temporal support for localized transmission, which may include the role of necrophagous or hematophagous flies in outbreaks in this region. These results emphasize the need for active surveillance and prompt cleanup of anthrax carcasses to control anthrax both during outbreaks and between seasons.
Asunto(s)
Carbunco/epidemiología , Carbunco/veterinaria , Bacillus anthracis/genética , Ciervos/microbiología , Variación Genética , Animales , Bacillus anthracis/clasificación , Técnicas de Tipificación Bacteriana , Análisis por Conglomerados , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Femenino , Genotipo , Masculino , Repeticiones de Minisatélite , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , TexasRESUMEN
Even though anthrax is a disease of antiquity that has been studied for centuries, serious concerns have been raised about our understanding of its epidemiology. Since the 1960s, we have based the epidemiology of anthrax on the results of dose-dependent experiments, especially those involving cattle at that time. In this species the experiments demonstrated that the severity of infection was dependent upon the numbers of Bacillus anthracis spores ingested. The opinion was that ingesting only a few spores would be insufficient to cause an apparent infection; any infection that resulted would be latent (i.e., unrecognized). Based on the results of these experiments, it was accepted that the ingestion of large numbers of spores was the source of infection for hundreds of anthrax outbreaks. However, many investigations of both human and animal anthrax outbreaks have failed to identify sources of large numbers of spores, suggesting that these outbreaks are only rarely a consequence of ingestion or inhalation of large quantities of spores. This opinion piece builds upon the indirect evidence previously presented in an article focused on the existence of latent infections. Much of the evidence for the existence of latent infections was predicated upon a reduction of host resistance, which revealed how latent infections could be a source of more severe forms of the infection. That is, a latent infection can be the source of a severe infection, but the cause of the severe infection is the reduced host resistance. That first article concentrated on the arguments for latent infections, while this article concentrates on the arguments for host resistance. Host resistance is virtually impossible to measure objectively in the field. To provide a subjective measure of host resistance during anthrax outbreaks, we suggest the use of the opinions of livestock owners and or their veterinary practitioners and or field workers during investigations of anthrax outbreaks. When veterinary personal work in the field they are much like field biologists. In some ways field biologists better appreciate environmental factors, population ecology and other perspectives that are of use to epidemiologists. The more diverse the information the better the epidemiology is understood. To this effect we present our personal anecdotal and theoretical ideas from our experiences as well as a collection of bibliographic observations from others'. Our conclusions are that a combination of latent infections and reduced host resistance based on the host's relationship with its environment would better explain the epidemiology of severe infections in anthrax outbreaks for which large quantities of spores have not been located. This applies especially if the area has a history of the disease and/or if necropsies have shown the presence of latent infections in otherwise normal animals in the area and/or if environmental conditions are considered stressful and include intense insect activity.
Asunto(s)
Carbunco , Bacillus anthracis , Infección Latente , Animales , Humanos , Bovinos , Carbunco/epidemiología , Carbunco/veterinaria , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Ecología , Infección Latente/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The two major causes of Parkinson's disease (PD) are genetic susceptibility and exposure to agricultural pesticides. Access to 23,224 individuals' hospital primary discharge diagnoses of PD allowed the mapping of cases against known crop distributions and pesticides. Our main objective was to map PD risks (cases per 10,000 people) against crops and their pesticides. The ZIP Code address locations, and the 2000 and 2010 census data, were used to map the risks of PD throughout Louisiana and in relation to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-recorded crops. The introduction of glyphosate-resistant crops appears to have initiated the PD disappearance from northeastern parishes on the west bank of the Mississippi river. Rice and sugar cane are seemingly unassociated with PD, as is the Mississippi itself, except for Jefferson and St. Charles Parishes, which are essentially urban or industrial. The present major PD-affected areas are associated with commercial forests, woodlands, and pastures, and thus with certain arbor-pastoral pesticides, 2,4-D, chlorpyrifos, and paraquat. Human populations at maximum risk are those living in areas of moderate and high aquifer-recharge potential. The levels of estimated pesticide exposure in these recharge areas we were able to access were of variable use, but significant amounts of 2,4-D were being used.
Asunto(s)
Agricultura , Agua Subterránea , Enfermedad de Parkinson , Plaguicidas , Productos Agrícolas , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Louisiana , Masculino , Medio Oriente , Mississippi , Enfermedad de Parkinson/epidemiología , Alta del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Plaguicidas/toxicidad , Riesgo , Abastecimiento de AguaRESUMEN
Hugh-Jones and Blackburn and Turnbull's collective World Health Organization (WHO) report did literature reviews of the theories and the bases for causes of anthrax outbreaks. Both comment on an often-mentioned suspicion that, even though unproven, latent infections are likely involved. Hugh-Jones suggested Gainer do an updated review of our present-day knowledge of latent infections, which was the basis for Gainer's talk at the Biology of Anthrax Conference in Bari, Italy 2019. At the Conference Gainer met Vergnaud who presented anthrax genome studies that implied that the disease might have spread throughout Asia and from Europe to North America in a short time span of three or four centuries. Vergnaud wondered if latent infections might have played a role in the process. Several other presenters at the Conference also mentioned results that might suggest the existence of latent infections. Vergnaud subsequently looked into some of the old French literature about related observations, results, and discussions of early Pasteur vaccine usage (late 1800's) and found mentions of suspected latent infections. The first part of the paper is a focused summary and interpretation of Hugh-Jones and Blackburn's and Turnbull's reviews specifically looking for suggestions of latent infections, a few additional studies with slightly different approaches, and several mentions made of presentations and posters at the Conference in Italy. In general, many different investigators in different areas and aspects of the anthrax study at the Conference found reasons to suspect the existence of latent infections. The authors conclude that the affected species most studied, including Homo sapiens, provide circumstantial evidence of latent infections and modified host resistance. The last part of the review explores the research needed to prove or disprove the existence of latent infections.
RESUMEN
Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades de los Animales/epidemiología , Carbunco/epidemiología , Carbunco/veterinaria , Bacillus anthracis/fisiología , Animales , Animales Salvajes/microbiología , Carbunco/microbiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Microbiología Ambiental , Geografía , Humanos , Ganado/microbiología , Modelos Biológicos , Salud Pública , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
The ecology and distribution of Bacillus anthracis is poorly understood despite continued anthrax outbreaks in wildlife and livestock throughout the United States. Little work is available to define the potential environments that may lead to prolonged spore survival and subsequent outbreaks. This study used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system to model the ecological niche for B. anthracis in the contiguous United States using wildlife and livestock outbreaks and several environmental variables. The modeled niche is defined by a narrow range of normalized difference vegetation index, precipitation, and elevation, with the geographic distribution heavily concentrated in a narrow corridor from southwest Texas northward into the Dakotas and Minnesota. Because disease control programs rely on vaccination and carcass disposal, and vaccination in wildlife remains untenable, understanding the distribution of B. anthracis plays an important role in efforts to prevent/eradicate the disease. Likewise, these results potentially aid in differentiating endemic/natural outbreaks from industrial-contamination related outbreaks or bioterrorist attacks.
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Carbunco/epidemiología , Bacillus anthracis/fisiología , Microbiología Ambiental , Modelos Biológicos , Algoritmos , Animales , Área Bajo la Curva , Ecología , Ambiente , Geografía , Humanos , Curva ROC , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Medición de Riesgo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To identify emerging animal and zoonotic diseases and associated geographic distribution, disease agents, animal hosts, and seasonality of reporting in the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED)-mail electronic early warning system. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 10,490 disease reports. PROCEDURES: Descriptive statistics were collated for all animal disease reports appearing on the ProMED-mail system from January 1, 1996, to December 31, 2004. RESULTS: Approximately 30% of reports concerned events in the United States; reports were next most common in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Russia, and China. Rabies, bovine spongiform encephalopathy, and anthrax were reported consistently over the study period, whereas avian influenza, Ebola virus, and Hantavirus infection were reported frequently in approximately half of the study years. Reports concerning viral agents composed more than half of the postings. Humans affected by zoonotic disease accounted for a third of the subjects. Cattle were affected in 1,080 reports, and wildlife species were affected in 825 reports. For the 10,490 postings studied, there was a retraction rate of 0.01 and a correction rate of 0.02. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: ProMED-mail provided global coverage, but gaps in coverage for individual countries were detected. The value of a global electronic reporting system for monitoring emerging diseases over a 9-year period illustrated how new technologies can augment disease surveillance strategies. The number of animal and zoonotic diseases highlights the importance of animals in the study of emerging diseases.
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Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/veterinaria , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Correo Electrónico/estadística & datos numéricos , Difusión de la Información/métodos , Internet , Animales , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Salud Global , Humanos , Estudios RetrospectivosRESUMEN
A mosquito study based on collections from horse-baited stable traps was conducted in 1993 and 1994 at 3 sites in geographically and ecologically distinct areas of St. Tammany Parish (southeastern Louisiana) to determine the major horse-feeding mosquito species that could be possible bridging and epidemic vectors of eastern equine encephalomyelitis virus. A total of 4,535 mosquitoes in 1993 and 23,906 in 1994 involving 26 species were collected, of which, depending on the site, Culex salinarius, Cx. (Melanoconion) spp., Aedes vexans, Psophora ferox, Coquillettidia perturbans, Anopheles quadrimaculatus, An. crucians, Ps. columbiae. Ae. albopictus, and Ochlerotatus atlanticus were captured in relatively high numbers with high engorgement rates and were therefore considered important horse-feeding species in the parish.
Asunto(s)
Culicidae , Caballos/parasitología , Aedes , Animales , Anopheles , Culex , Virus de la Encefalitis Equina del Este , Encefalomielitis Equina Oriental/transmisión , Femenino , Enfermedades de los Caballos/transmisión , Enfermedades de los Caballos/virología , Caballos/virología , Humanos , Insectos Vectores/virología , Louisiana , Vigilancia de la Población , Tiempo (Meteorología)RESUMEN
Early studies confirmed Bacillus anthracis in emesis and feces of flies under laboratory conditions, but there is little empirical field evidence supporting the roles of flies in anthrax transmission. We collected samples during outbreaks of anthrax affecting livestock and native and exotic wildlife on two ranches in West Texas (2009-2010). Sampling included animal carcasses, maggots, adult flies feeding on or within several meters of carcasses, and leaves from surrounding vegetation. Microbiology and PCR were used to detect B. anthracis in the samples. Viable B. anthracis and/or PCR-positive results were obtained from all represented sample types. Genetic analysis of B. anthracis samples using multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) confirmed that each ranch represented a distinct genetic lineage. Within each ranch, we detected the same genotype of B. anthracis from carcasses, maggots, and adult flies. The results of this study provide evidence supporting a transmission cycle in which blowflies contaminate vegetation near carcasses that may then infect additional browsing animals during anthrax outbreaks in the shrubland environment of West Texas.
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Carbunco/transmisión , Carbunco/veterinaria , Bacillus anthracis/aislamiento & purificación , Dípteros/microbiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Ganado/microbiología , Rumiantes/microbiología , Animales , Carbunco/epidemiología , Bacillus anthracis/genética , Variación Genética , Genotipo , Insectos Vectores/fisiología , Hojas de la Planta/microbiología , Texas/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
We modeled the ecological niche of a globally successful Bacillus anthracis sublineage in the United States, Italy and Kazakhstan to better understand the geographic distribution of anthrax and potential associations between regional populations and ecology. Country-specific ecological-niche models were developed and reciprocally transferred to the other countries to determine if pathogen presence could be accurately predicted on novel landscapes. Native models accurately predicted endemic areas within each country, but transferred models failed to predict known occurrences in the outside countries. While the effects of variable selection and limitations of the genetic data should be considered, results suggest differing ecological associations for the B. anthracis populations within each country and may reflect niche specialization within the sublineage. Our findings provide guidance for developing accurate ecological niche models for this pathogen; models should be developed regionally, on the native landscape, and with consideration to population genetics. Further genomic analysis will improve our understanding of the genetic-ecological dynamics of B. anthracis across these countries and may lead to more refined predictive models for surveillance and proactive vaccination programs. Further studies should evaluate the impact of variable selection of native and transferred models.
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Bacillus anthracis/genética , Ecosistema , Geografía , Modelos Biológicos , Humanos , Italia , Kazajstán , Tamaño de la Muestra , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
We compared a local clustering and a cluster morphology statistic using anthrax outbreaks in large (cattle) and small (sheep and goats) domestic ruminants across Kazakhstan. The Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistic and a multidirectional optimal ecotope algorithm (AMOEBA) were compared using 1st, 2nd and 3rd order Rook contiguity matrices. Multivariate statistical tests were used to evaluate the environmental signatures between clusters and non-clusters from the AMOEBA and Gi* tests. A logistic regression was used to define a risk surface for anthrax outbreaks and to compare agreement between clustering methodologies. Tests revealed differences in the spatial distribution of clusters as well as the total number of clusters in large ruminants for AMOEBA (n = 149) and for small ruminants (n = 9). In contrast, Gi* revealed fewer large ruminant clusters (n = 122) and more small ruminant clusters (n = 61). Significant environmental differences were found between groups using the Kruskall-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U tests. Logistic regression was used to model the presence/absence of anthrax outbreaks and define a risk surface for large ruminants to compare with cluster analyses. The model predicted 32.2% of the landscape as high risk. Approximately 75% of AMOEBA clusters corresponded to predicted high risk, compared with ~64% of Gi* clusters. In general, AMOEBA predicted more irregularly shaped clusters of outbreaks in both livestock groups, while Gi* tended to predict larger, circular clusters. Here we provide an evaluation of both tests and a discussion of the use of each to detect environmental conditions associated with anthrax outbreak clusters in domestic livestock. These findings illustrate important differences in spatial statistical methods for defining local clusters and highlight the importance of selecting appropriate levels of data aggregation.
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Carbunco/epidemiología , Ganado/microbiología , Animales , Carbunco/veterinaria , Bovinos/microbiología , Análisis por Conglomerados , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Cabras/microbiología , Kazajstán/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo , Ovinos/microbiología , Estadísticas no ParamétricasRESUMEN
Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km(2) and 8 km(2) and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km(2). Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting approximately 14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting approximately 15% loss at 55 km(2), approximately 34% loss at 8 km(2), and approximately 30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km(2). Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B. anthracis.
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Bacillus anthracis/fisiología , Algoritmos , Área Bajo la Curva , Cambio Climático , Planificación en Desastres , Microbiología Ambiental , Monitoreo del Ambiente/métodos , Geografía , Kazajstán , Salud Pública , Curva ROC , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
This case study confirms the interaction between necrophilic flies and white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus, during an anthrax outbreak in West Texas (summer 2005). Bacillus anthracis was identified by culture and PCR from one of eight pooled fly collections from deer carcasses on a deer ranch with a well-documented history of anthrax. These results provide the first known isolation of B. anthracis from flesh-eating flies associated with a wildlife anthrax outbreak in North America and are discussed in the context of wildlife ecology and anthrax epizootics.
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Carbunco/veterinaria , Bacillus anthracis/aislamiento & purificación , Ciervos/microbiología , Dípteros/microbiología , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Animales , Animales Salvajes/microbiología , Carbunco/epidemiología , Carbunco/transmisión , Femenino , Masculino , Estaciones del Año , Texas/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Present animal vaccines against Bacillus anthracis infection are capable of inducing protective immunity. However, due to the route of administration, the vaccine has limited or no use in wildlife especially in rural areas of the world. Hence, an oral vaccine is needed for controlling this disease. For proof of concept we used the commercially available Sterne strain 34F2 vaccine mixed with oral scarifying agents. Although the immunological response as measured by ELISA in this group was not equal to the parenterally inoculated animals, the results indicate that the oral administration of this vaccine with oropharyngeal mucosa scarifying agents mixed with feed can induce immune responses in goats.
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Vacunas contra el Carbunco/inmunología , Bacillus anthracis/inmunología , Vacunas Bacterianas/inmunología , Administración Oral , Animales , Carbunco/prevención & control , Vacunas contra el Carbunco/administración & dosificación , Anticuerpos Antibacterianos/sangre , Antígenos Bacterianos/inmunología , Toxinas Bacterianas/inmunología , Vacunas Bacterianas/administración & dosificación , Ensayo de Inmunoadsorción Enzimática , Femenino , Cabras , Inmunoglobulina G/sangre , Modelos AnimalesRESUMEN
Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a disease of historical and current importance that is found throughout the world. The basis of its historical transmission is anecdotal and its true global population structure has remained largely cryptic. Seven diverse B. anthracis strains were whole-genome sequenced to identify rare single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), followed by phylogenetic reconstruction of these characters onto an evolutionary model. This analysis identified SNPs that define the major clonal lineages within the species. These SNPs, in concert with 15 variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) markers, were used to subtype a collection of 1,033 B. anthracis isolates from 42 countries to create an extensive genotype data set. These analyses subdivided the isolates into three previously recognized major lineages (A, B, and C), with further subdivision into 12 clonal sub-lineages or sub-groups and, finally, 221 unique MLVA15 genotypes. This rare genomic variation was used to document the evolutionary progression of B. anthracis and to establish global patterns of diversity. Isolates in the A lineage are widely dispersed globally, whereas the B and C lineages occur on more restricted spatial scales. Molecular clock models based upon genome-wide synonymous substitutions indicate there was a massive radiation of the A lineage that occurred in the mid-Holocene (3,064-6,127 ybp). On more recent temporal scales, the global population structure of B. anthracis reflects colonial-era importation of specific genotypes from the Old World into the New World, as well as the repeated industrial importation of diverse genotypes into developed countries via spore-contaminated animal products. These findings indicate humans have played an important role in the evolution of anthrax by increasing the proliferation and dispersal of this now global disease. Finally, the value of global genotypic analysis for investigating bioterrorist-mediated outbreaks of anthrax is demonstrated.
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Bacillus anthracis/genética , Análisis por Conglomerados , Genes Bacterianos , Filogenia , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido SimpleRESUMEN
A test of 25 genetically diverse isolates of Bacillus anthracis was conducted to determine their susceptibility to seven clinically relevant antimicrobial agents. Etest strips (AB BIODISK, Solna, Sweden) were used to measure the MICs for the isolates. Using the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards MIC breakpoints for staphylococci, three isolates were found to be resistant to penicillin and five were found to be resistant to cefuroxime. The penicillin-resistant isolates were negative for beta-lactamase production. Continued surveillance of B. anthracis field isolates is recommended to monitor antimicrobial susceptibility.
Asunto(s)
Bacillus anthracis/efectos de los fármacos , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana Múltiple , Animales , Bacillus anthracis/genética , Bacillus anthracis/aislamiento & purificación , Humanos , Pruebas de Sensibilidad MicrobianaRESUMEN
Frog legs were contaminated with Vibrio cholera 01, Inaba serotype, ElTor biotype. The organism remained viable for more than 28 and 2 d when stored at -20°C and 4°C, respectively. Exposure to a multicurie 60Cobalt source of 50 and 100 kilorads eliminated V. choierae from both the frozen and fresh frog legs.
RESUMEN
Bacillus anthracis is a bacterial pathogen of great importance, both historically and in the present. This study presents data collected from several investigations and indicates that B. anthracis virulence is associated with the clonality and virulence of plasmids pXO1 and pXO2. Guinea pigs vaccinated with Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed were challenged with 20 B. anthracis isolates representative of worldwide genetic diversity. These same isolates were characterized with respect to plasmid copy number by using a novel method of quantitative PCR developed for rapid and efficient detection of B. anthracis from environmental samples. We found that the copy numbers for both pXO1 and pXO2 differed from those in previously published reports. By combining the data on survival, plasmid copy numbers, and clonality, we developed a model predicting virulence. This model was validated by using a randomly chosen set of 12 additional B. anthracis isolates. Results from this study will be helpful in future efforts to elucidate the basis for variation in the virulence of this important pathogen.