Comparison of Inflammation-Based Prognostic Scores Associated with the Prognostic Impact of Adenocarcinoma of Esophagogastric Junction and Upper Gastric Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Several inflammation-based prognostic scores have a prognostic value in patients with various cancers. This study investigated the prognostic value of various inflammation-based prognostic scores in patients who underwent a surgery for adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) and upper gastric cancer (UGC). METHODS: We reviewed data of 206 patients who underwent surgery for AEG and UGC. We calculated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), modified GPS (mGPS), C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin (Alb) ratio, prognostic index (PI), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and analyzed the relationship between these biomarkers and postoperative prognosis. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses for overall survival, mGPS (P = 0.0337, hazard ratio [HR] = 5.211), PI (P = 0.0002, HR = 21.20), and PNI (P < 0.0001, HR = 6.907) were identified as independent predictive factors. A multivariate analysis for recurrence-free survival showed that only PI (P = 0.0006, HR = 11.89) and PNI (P = 0.0002, HR = 4.972) were independent predictive factors among the above-mentioned inflammation-based prognostic scores. CONCLUSIONS: In various inflammation-based prognostic scores, PI and PNI were more strongly associated with poor prognosis in patients who underwent surgery for AEG and UGC.

Phase II study of S-1 plus leucovorin in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: Regimen of 1 week on, 1 week off.

A phase II study of S-1 plus leucovorin (LV) given in a 4-week schedule (2 weeks' administration followed by 2 weeks' rest) for patients with untreated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) showed that the combination was effective, but grade 3 toxicities (diarrhea, stomatitis and anorexia) occurred at a relatively high rate. In this phase II study, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of a 2-week schedule of S-1 plus LV. Patients with mCRC received oral S-1 (40-60 mg) and LV (25 mg) twice daily for 1 week, followed by 1 week's rest. Treatment was repeated until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was response rate. The pharmacokinetics of S-1 and LV in Chinese patients were evaluated on day 1 of the first cycle. Seventy-three patients were enrolled in Japan and China. Of 71 eligible patients, the response rate was 53.5%, and the disease control rate was 83.1%. Median progression-free survival and median overall survival were 6.5 and 24.3 months, respectively. The incidences of grade 3 toxicities were diarrhea 8.3%, stomatitis 8.3%, anorexia 2.8% and neutropenia 9.7%. There were no treatment-related deaths. The pharmacokinetics profiles of S-1 plus LV in Chinese patients were similar to those in Japanese patients. This 2-week schedule of S-1 plus LV showed good efficacy and better tolerability than the 4-week schedule. This therapy will be the base regimen for mCRC to be added by other cytotoxic or molecular-targeted drugs. The optimized treatment schedule for S-1 plus LV was 1 week on and 1 week off.

Weight Loss During Initial Chemotherapy Predicts Survival in Patients With Advanced Gastric Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC) often suffer weight loss, which can be used to predict prognosis. Few reports have assessed the correlation between weight loss during chemotherapy and survival in patients with AGC. METHODS: Fifty-three patients with histologically proven AGC, who started systemic chemotherapy from September 2010 to March 2014, were retrospectively examined for body weight, inflammatory status, and survival. Correlation analyses were performed between weight change and survival. Correlations between weight loss and the patient characteristics were analyzed by stepwise multiple regression analyses. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 64.4 years; 64% of the patients were males. Initial chemotherapy included fluoropyrimidine plus cisplatin (62%), fluoropyrimidine alone (26%), and other medications (12%); 72% of the patients exhibited weight loss during the initial therapy. Poorer mean overall survival and mean progression-free survival were observed in patients with weight loss of higher-than-average values than in those with weight loss of lower-than-average values. Serum C-reactive protein levels were significantly correlated with weight loss. CONCLUSIONS: Weight loss during initial chemotherapy for AGC may predict survival. Systemic inflammation is suggested to be associated with weight loss.

[Comorbid Meckel's diverticulum and omphalomesenteric cyst evaluated by small bowel series under double-balloon enteroscopy: a case report].

A 59-year-old man was referred to our hospital for examination of intermittent abdominal pain. Computed tomography scan showed a cystic lesion adjoining the ileum, and small bowel series demonstrated a small bowel diverticulum. Double-balloon enteroscopy (DBE) revealed a diverticulum in the ileum and a soft and smooth elevated lesion with a small hole at the base of the diverticulum. Small bowel series under DBE demonstrated that the cystic lesion communicated with the diverticulum through the small hole. The diagnosis was Meckel's diverticulum and an omphalomesenteric cyst. This is the first reported case of a Meckel's diverticulum and omphalomesenteric cyst communicating through a small hole without a fibrous ligament. In addition, precise evaluation was possible by small bowel series and DBE.

Preliminary study of surgical audit for overall survival following gastric cancer resection.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies for surgical audit have focused on short-term outcomes, such as perioperative mortality. There has been no gold standard how to evaluate quality of care for long-term outcomes in surgical oncology. This preliminary study aims to propose a method for surgical audit targeting long-term outcome following gastrectomy for gastric cancer. METHODS: We prospectively investigated a set of variables relating to physiologic conditions, tumor characteristics and operations in patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer between June 2005 and July 2008 in 18 referral hospitals in Japan. Overall survival (OS) is the endpoint. Cox hazard regression analysis was used to generate a model to predict OS. The calibration and discrimination power of the model were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratio of observed-to-estimated 5-year OS rates (OE ratio) was defined as a measure of quality. RESULTS: Among 762 patients analyzed, 697 (91%) completed the 5-year follow-up. The constructed model for OS exhibited a good discrimination power (AUC, 95% confidence interval 0.89, 0.86-0.91), which was significantly better than that for the UICC stage (0.81, 0.77-0.84). This model also demonstrated a good calibration power (H-L: χ(2) = 27.2, df = 8, P = 0.77). The OE ratios among the participating hospitals revealed no significant variation between 0.74 and 1.1. CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests the possibility of surgical audit for postoperative OS in gastric cancer. Further studies including high-volume centers will be necessary to validate this idea.

The EPOS-CC Score: An Integration of Independent, Tumor- and Patient-Associated Risk Factors to Predict 5-years Overall Survival Following Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Surgical audit is an essential task for the estimation of postoperative outcome and comparison of quality of care. Previous studies on surgical audits focused on short-term outcomes, such as postoperative mortality. We propose a surgical audit evaluating long-term outcome following colorectal cancer surgery. The predictive model for this audit is designated as 'Estimation of Postoperative Overall Survival for Colorectal Cancer (EPOS-CC)'. METHODS: Thirty-one tumor-related and physiological variables were prospectively collected in 889 patients undergoing elective resection for colorectal cancer between April 2005 and April 2007 in 16 Japanese hospitals. Postoperative overall survival was assessed over a 5-years period. The EPOS-CC score was established by selecting significant variables in a uni- and multivariate analysis and allocating a risk-adjusted multiplication factor to each variable using Cox regression analysis. For validation, the EPOS-CC score was compared to the predictive power of UICC stage. Inter-hospital variability of the observed-to-estimated 5-years survival was assessed to estimate quality of care. RESULTS: Among the 889 patients, 804 (90%) completed the 5-years follow-up. Univariate analysis displayed a significant correlation with 5-years survival for 14 physiological and nine tumor-related variables (p < 0.005). Highly significant p-values below 0.0001 were found for age, ASA score, severe pulmonary disease, respiratory history, performance status, hypoalbuminemia, alteration of hemoglobin, serum sodium level, and for all histological variables except tumor location. Age, TNM stage, lymphatic invasion, performance status, and serum sodium level were independent variables in the multivariate analysis and were entered the EPOS-CC model for the prediction of survival. Risk-adjusted multiplication factors between 1.5 (distant metastasis) and 0.16 (serum sodium level) were accorded to the different variables. The predictive power of EPOS-CC was superior to the one of UICC stage; area under the curve 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.90 for EPOS-CC, and 0.80, 0.76-0.83 for UICC stage, p < 0.001. Quality of care did not differ between hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: The EPOS-CC score including the independent variables age, performance status, serum sodium level, TNM stage, and lymphatic invasion is superior to the UICC stage in the prediction of 5-years overall survival. This higher accuracy might be explained by the inclusion of physiological factors, thus also taking non-tumor-associated deaths into account. Furthermore, EPOS-CC score may compare quality of care among different institutions. Future studies are necessary to further evaluate this score and help improving the prediction of long-term survival following colorectal cancer surgery.

Survival with Collateral Circulation after Gastrointestinal Ischemia Caused by Aortic Dissection: A Case Report.

We report a case of a 43-year-old man who presented with gradually intensifying abdominal pain of acute onset and was shown by contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) examination to have acute aortic dissection (Stanford type B). A diagnosis of gastrointestinal necrosis was made and he underwent emergency surgery. At laparoscopy, he was found to have no superior mesenteric arterial pulse and intestinal necrosis from the upper jejunum to the right transverse colon. Resection of the superior mesenteric artery (SMA) perfusion area was performed. Postoperatively, ischemia in the perfusion area of the celiac artery was also diagnosed, manifesting as gallbladder necrosis, portal vein gas accompanying gastric wall necrosis, perforation of the remaining upper jejunum, and hepatic and splenic infarction. However, development of a collateral circulation originating in the left colic branch of the inferior mesenteric artery (IMA) enabled retrograde provision of blood to the celiac artery through the SMA pancreaticoduodenal arcade. Thus, in this case, spontaneous development of a natural bypass created a new route for arterial perfusion, contributing to the patient's survival. When ischemia of the celiac artery and SMA perfusion areas occur, collateral circulation can develop from the IMA.

[A Case of Laparoscopic Surgery for Early Gastric Cancer that Occurred after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting using the Right Gastroepiploic Artery].

We herein report a case involving a 70-year-old man who was diagnosed with early gastric cancer that occurred after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using the right gastroepiploic artery (RGEA) for effort-induced angina. He was successfully treated by laparoscopic surgery. Preoperative cardiac three-dimensional computed tomography and coronary angiography showed an occlusion of the RGEA graft, which could lead to ligation of the RGEA to dissect the lymph nodes along the RGEA. The laparoscopic approach helps to identify and avoid injury to the RGEA graft because of its enlarged and precise viewing field compared with laparotomy followed by retractor placement. Laparoscopic surgery is a useful method in such cases to reduce perioperative complications risk.

[Laparoscopic-Assisted Percutaneous Endoscopic Gastrostomy--Report of Three Cases].

Laparoscopic-assisted percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (LAPEG) was performed in consecutive three patients for whom it was unable to place a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG). The mean operation time was 40.3 min, and mean blood loss was 1.3 g. Three trocars were placed, two for working and another for endoscopy, and a PEG was established by an usual Introducer method. There were no complications both intra- and post-operatively. LAPEG might be a safe alternative when the application of PEG is difficult.

Sugars, sucrose and colorectal cancer risk: the Fukuoka colorectal cancer study.

OBJECTIVE: A diet high in sugars may promote colorectal carcinogenesis, but it remains uncertain whether high intake of sugars or sucrose confers increased risk of colorectal cancer. The authors investigated the associations of sugars and sucrose intake with colorectal cancer risk in a community-based case-control study in Japan. METHODS: The study subjects comprised 816 incident cases of colorectal cancer and 815 community controls. Consumption frequencies and portion sizes of 148 food and beverage items were ascertained by a computer-assisted interview. The authors used the consumption of 29 food items to estimate sugars and sucrose intake. The odds ratios of colorectal cancer risk according to intake categories were obtained using a logistic regression model with adjustment for potential confounding variables. RESULTS: Overall, intakes of sugars and sucrose were not related to colorectal cancer risk either in men or women. The association between sugars intake and colorectal cancer risk differed by smoking status and alcohol use in men, but not in women. In men, sugars intake tended to be associated with colorectal cancer risk inversely among never-smokers and positively among male ever-smokers (interaction p=0.01). Sugars intake was associated with an increased risk among men with no alcohol consumption, but was unrelated to the risk among male alcohol drinkers (interaction p=0.02). Body mass index did not modify the association with sugars intake in either men or women. CONCLUSION: Sugars intake was associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer among smokers and non-alcohol drinkers in men selectively.

Significance of preoperative evaluation of the right gastroepiploic artery graft to the coronary artery in patients undergoing abdominal surgery.

BACKGROUND: A major concern with the use of the right gastroepiploic artery (RGEA) as the graft for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is the potential for injury, which can result in critical myocardial ischemia during future abdominal surgery. METHODS: We examined the availability of preoperative image evaluation, preoperative recognition of the RGEA graft, and operative findings such as graft identification, graft injury, and cardiac events in 11 patients who underwent abdominal surgery after CABG using the RGEA as the graft. RESULTS: Prior to the abdominal surgery, contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) was performed in all 11 patients, while coronary angiography or three-dimensional CT angiography was performed in five patients. We detected the RGEA graft retrospectively in nine of ten patients in whom the images from contrast-enhanced CT were still available. Among the seven patients whose RGEA grafts were in the operative field, the RGEA graft was identified in five patients, while the RGEA graft was not identified in the remaining two patients because of adhesions. There were no intraoperative cardiac events in any of the 11 patients. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to determine whether an RGEA graft is present when repeat laparotomy is required after CABG. In cases where an RGEA graft is present, it is essential to evaluate the patency and location of the graft since this will be crucial for planning the reoperation strategy. Preoperative recognition and evaluation of the RGEA graft can help avoid graft injury, even if the graft cannot be detected intraoperatively.

Estrogen receptor-ß gene polymorphism and colorectal cancer risk: effect modified by body mass index and isoflavone intake.

Estrogen receptor (ER)-ß signaling has generally been implicated in protection against colorectal cancer. The ER-ß gene cytosine-adenine (ESR2 CA) repeat polymorphism was reported to be associated with colorectal cancer, although showing contradicting results probably caused by ethnicity or age distribution of the subjects. We investigated the association between this polymorphism and the colorectal cancer risk in a community-based case-control study in Japan (685 cases/778 controls), including only subjects younger than 75. The effect modifications of the body mass index (BMI) and isoflavone intake were also examined. ESR2 CA repeat polymorphism was determined by polymerase chain reaction using fluorescein-labeled primers. CA repeat alleles were classified into short (S) allele (<22 repeats) and long (L) allele (≥ 22 repeats). Subjects were divided into three genotype groups (SS/SL/LL). The risk of colon cancer, but not of rectal cancer, was increased with an increasing number of L alleles among postmenopausal women; age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for SL and LL genotypes compared with the SS genotype were 1.78 and 2.91, respectively (trend p = 0.002). Increased risks of colon cancer associated with the L allele were more evident among postmenopausal women with low BMI (<25 kg m(-2)) or with high isoflavone intake. Such associations were not observed among men or premenopausal women. Having longer ESR2 CA repeat increases colon cancer risk among postmenopausal women younger than 75, possibly with modification of BMI and isoflavone intake. Aging and estrogenic condition may be important in the colon cancer pathogenesis associated with ESR2 CA repeat polymorphism.

Microsomal epoxide hydrolase polymorphisms, cigarette smoking, and risk of colorectal cancer: the Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study.

Microsomal epoxide hydrolase (EPHX1) plays an important role in the activation and detoxification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, carcinogens found in cigarette smoke. Polymorphisms in exon 3 (Y113H) and exon 4 (H139R) of the EPHX1 have been associated with enzyme activity. We investigated the risk of colorectal cancer in relation to the EPHX1 Y113H and H139R polymorphisms and assessed effect modifications of cigarette smoking and the other covariates. The interaction between the EPHX1 polymorphisms and selected genetic polymorphisms was also examined. We used data from Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study, a community-based case-control study, including 685 cases and 778 controls. In-person interviews were conducted to assess lifestyle factors. The EPHX1 Y113H and H139R polymorphisms were determined by the TaqMan assay and the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism, respectively. Neither of the two polymorphisms nor the imputed EPHX1 phenotype was associated with colorectal cancer risk. Cigarette smoking and alcohol intake showed no effect modification on the association with the EPHX1 polymorphisms or the imputed EPHX1 phenotype. Increased risks of colorectal cancer associated with the 113Y allele and imputed EPHX1 phenotype were observed among individuals with high body mass index (BMI; ≥25.0 kg/m(2)), but not among those with low BMI (<25.0 kg/m(2)). The risk decreased with an increasing number of the 139R allele in the null genotypes of GSTM1/GSTT1. It is unlikely that the EPHX1 polymorphisms play an important role in colorectal carcinogenesis. The observed interactions of the EPHX1 polymorphisms with BMI and the GSTM1/GSTT1 genotypes warrant further investigation.

Lumbar hernia treated with lightweight partially absorbable mesh: report of a case.

Superior lumbar hernia, also known as Grynfeltt-Lesshaft hernia, is an uncommon abdominal wall defect. We report a case of superior lumbar hernia, which was successfully treated with a lightweight partially absorbable mesh. A 73-year-old man visited our department with complaints of lumbar pain and a feeling of pressure associated with a right lumbar mass. A CT scan of the abdomen demonstrated a defect in the aponeurosis of the transversus abdominis muscle and a protrusion of the small intestine through the defect. The diagnosis of a right superior lumbar hernia was made. The lumbar hernia was surgically treated with a lightweight large-pore polypropylene mesh containing an absorbable component consisting of poliglecaprone (ULTRAPRO Plug). The patient had no evidence of recurrence after 4 years of follow-up without any sense of discomfort. This is the first case report of a lumbar hernia treated with a lightweight partially absorbable mesh. This partially absorbable mesh can be considered to be suitable for the treatment of a lumbar hernia.

[Two cases of acute large bowel obstruction caused by advanced cancer treated with stenting "bridge to surgery" procedure].

Obstructive colorectal cancer accounts for 3.1-15.8% of total colorectal cancer cases, therefore it is not a rare condition. Formerly, it has been often treated with emergent operation such as colostomy or trans-anal tube decompression. Since 2012, revision of the medical payment system, it has become possible to be treated with elective operation when using endoscopic metal stent placement that enable to decompress enlarged intestine by transanal approach. This procedure provides safe elective surgery with sufficient preoperative inspection and conventional bowel preparation. We report two cases of acute large bowel obstruction due to colon cancer treated with endoscopic stent placement as a "bridge to surgery".

Leptomeningeal carcinomatosis originating from advanced gastric cancer--a report of three cases and review of the literatures.

BACKGROUND: Leptomeningeal carcinomatosis (LMC) is a rare complication of gastric cancer. Case 1. A 57-year-old female was diagnosed with gastric cancer and underwent distal gastrectomy with D2 lymph node dissection. Two years later, the patient suffered from para-aortic lymph node metastases and provided chemotherapy. During the chemotherapy, the patient emergently visited our hospital with chief complaints of a severe headache and dizziness. The above symptoms promptly abated by meningeal drainage, with a high value of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pressure. Despite the administration of subsequent chemotherapy, the patient's clinical state rapidly worsened, including gradual progression of both blindness and hearing loss. Case 2. A 42-year-old male was diagnosed with Stage IV gastric cancer due to both distant lymph node metastases and an ascites. Chemotherapy with S-1 plus docetaxel was initiated. Upon finishing the fifth course of treatment, the patient complained of a severe headache. The magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings were suggestive of LMC. Under suspicion of carcinomatous meningitis, the patient underwent both cerebrospinal drainage with a high pressure value of 180 mmH2O and a cytological examination with a diagnosis of Class V. Immediately following the cerebrospinal drainage, the patient's symptoms promptly diminished. Case 3. A 66-year-old female was diagnosed with gastric cancer and underwent total gastrectomy with D2 dissection. About a year later, the patient suffered from the peritoneal dissemination, and provided serial chemotherapy regimens for 13 months. Thereafter the patient suffered from mildly stiff shoulders followed by serial severe headaches, and meningeal drainage was performed. The CSF showed pleocytosis and the presence of neoplastic cells, leading a diagnosis of LMC. After the placement of an Ommaya reservoir, the intrathecal chemotherapy was performed. Within two weeks of treatment, the patient's condition improved significantly, and the cell counts in the CSF obtained from the Ommaya reservoir remained low for six months after the first diagnosis of LMC. CONCLUSIONS: Although gastric LMC-affected patients often exhibit a fatal clinical course, the administration of intrathecal chemotherapy may improve survival. Systemic chemotherapy may be also administered in a limited number of patients with a superior performance status. At present, each case requires the individual making treatment decisions. Further accumulation of clinical cases and improving the overall understanding of the pathogenesis of this disease is needed in order to advance in the treatment of gastric LMC.

Primary esophageal malignant melanoma without recurrence after surgery and adjuvant therapy with nivolumab.

Primary malignant melanoma of the esophagus is a rare disease with a severely poor prognosis. Here, we report a patient with primary malignant melanoma of the esophagus surviving without recurrence after surgery and adjuvant therapy with nivolumab. The patient was a 60-year-old female with dysphagia. Esophagogastroscopy showed an elevated dark brown tumor in the lower thoracic esophagus. A histological examination of the biopsy revealed human melanoma black 45 and melan-A positivity. The patient was diagnosed with primary malignant melanoma of the esophagus and was treated with radical esophagectomy. As postoperative treatment, the patient was given nivolumab (240 mg/body) every 2 weeks. Although bilateral pneumothorax occurred after 2 courses, she recovered after chest drainage. Nivolumab treatment is still ongoing over 1 year after the surgery, and the patient has survived without recurrence. We conclude that nivolumab is an optimal option as a postoperative adjuvant treatment for PMME.

Dietary intakes of retinol, carotenes, vitamin C, and vitamin E and colorectal cancer risk: the Fukuoka colorectal cancer study.

It has long been a matter of interest whether antioxidant vitamins are protective against colorectal cancer as well as human cancers in general, but epidemiological evidence is inconclusive. We investigated associations of dietary intakes of retinol and antioxidant vitamins with colorectal cancer risk in 816 incident cases of histologically confirmed colorectal cancer and 815 controls randomly selected for the Fukuoka colorectal cancer study in Japan. Dietary intakes were assessed by a PC-assisted interview regarding 148 food items. Statistical adjustment was made for body mass index, physical activity, calcium, and n-3 fatty acid intake and other factors. Retinol intake was significantly, inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk; the odds ratio for the highest vs. lowest was 0.55 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.88; P (trend) = 0.01) in women, but a modest increase in the risk was observed among men with the highest intake of retinol. Liver was the major source of retinol intake and showed similar associations with colorectal cancer risk in men and women. Intake of carotenes, vitamin C, and vitamin E were not related to colorectal cancer risk in either men or women. The study did not support a hypothesis that dietary intake of antioxidant vitamins is protective in the development of colorectal cancer.

Value of general surgical risk models for predicting postoperative liver failure and mortality following liver surgery.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the ability of general surgical models to predict postoperative morbidity and mortality in liver surgery. METHODS: The postoperative course and mortality rates predicted by general surgical models were investigated in 960 patients who underwent hepatectomy or ablation therapy for primary or metastatic liver carcinoma. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operative characteristic curve (95% confidence intervals) for detecting postoperative liver failure was 0.89 (0.84-0.94), 0.85 (0.78-0.92), and 0.78 (0.72-0.85) for the estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) model, the modified E-PASS (mE-PASS) model, and the Portsmouth Physiologic and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) model, respectively, and those for detecting in-hospital mortality were 0.85 (0.76-0.93), 0.85 (0.78-0.92), and 0.79 (0.71-0.87), respectively. Nevertheless, all of the models overpredicted the overall mortality rate (by 2.3-fold for E-PASS, 2.3-fold for mE-PASS, and 2.9-fold for P-POSSUM). CONCLUSIONS: The general surgical risk models demonstrated high discriminatory power for predicting postoperative outcomes in liver surgery, but overpredicted the overall mortality rate by more than twofold. Therefore, these models should be refined to make them more suitable for predicting liver surgery outcomes.

Evaluation of modified Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress in gastric carcinoma surgery.

BACKGROUND: We recently modified our prediction scoring system "Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress" and have designated the current version mE-PASS. This scoring system has been designed to obtain predicted postoperative mortality rates before surgery and this study was performed to assess its usefulness in elective surgery for gastric carcinoma. METHODS: We investigated seven variables for mE-PASS and evaluated the postoperative course in 3,449 patients who underwent elective surgery for gastric carcinoma in Japan between August 20, 1987 and April 9, 2007, in order to quantify the predicted in-hospital mortality rates (R). The calibration and discrimination power of R were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), respectively. The ratios of observed-to-estimated mortality rates (OE ratios) were quantified as a measure of quality. RESULTS: The overall postoperative morbidity and mortality rates were 19.0 and 2.0%, respectively. R demonstrated good power in calibration (χ(2) value, 12.5; df 8; P = 0.89) as well as discrimination (AUC, 95% confidence intervals: 0.80, 0.75-0.85). The OE ratios between hospitals ranged from 0.44 to 1.8. Overall, the OE ratios seemed to improve with time (OE ratio, 95% confidence intervals: 1.3, 0.73-2.4 for the early period between 1987 and 2000; 1.0, 0.59-1.7 for the middle period between 2001 and 2004; and 0.65, 0.36-1.2 for the late period between 2005 and 2007). CONCLUSION: Based on these findings, mE-PASS might be useful for medical decision-making and for assessing the quality of care in elective surgery for gastric carcinoma.