Modeling net ecosystem carbon balance and loss in coastal wetlands exposed to sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion.

Coastal wetlands are globally important stores of carbon (C). However, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), increased saltwater intrusion, and modified freshwater discharge can contribute to the collapse of peat marshes, converting coastal peatlands into open water. Applying results from multiple experiments from sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense)-dominated freshwater and brackish water marshes in the Florida Coastal Everglades, we developed a system-level mechanistic peat elevation model (EvPEM). We applied the model to simulate net ecosystem C balance (NECB) and peat elevation in response to elevated salinity under inundation and drought exposure. Using a mass C balance approach, we estimated net gain in C and corresponding export of aquatic fluxes ( F AQ $$ {F}_{\mathrm{AQ}} $$ ) in the freshwater marsh under ambient conditions (NECB = 1119 ± 229 gC m-2  year-1 ; FAQ  = 317 ± 186 gC m-2  year-1 ). In contrast, the brackish water marsh exhibited substantial peat loss and aquatic C export with ambient (NECB = -366 ± 15 gC m-2  year-1 ; FAQ  = 311 ± 30 gC m-2  year-1 ) and elevated salinity (NECB = -594 ± 94 gC m-2  year-1 ; FAQ  = 729 ± 142 gC m-2  year-1 ) under extended exposed conditions. Further, mass balance suggests a considerable decline in soil C and corresponding elevation loss with elevated salinity and seasonal dry-down. Applying EvPEM, we developed critical marsh net primary productivity (NPP) thresholds as a function of salinity to simulate accumulating, steady-state, and collapsing peat elevations. The optimization showed that ~150-1070 gC m-2  year-1 NPP could support a stable peat elevation (elevation change ≈ SLR), with the corresponding salinity ranging from 1 to 20 ppt under increasing inundation levels. The C budgeting and modeling illustrate the impacts of saltwater intrusion, inundation, and seasonal dry-down and reduce uncertainties in understanding the fate of coastal peat wetlands with SLR and freshwater restoration. The modeling results provide management targets for hydrologic restoration based on the ecological conditions needed to reduce the vulnerability of the Everglades' peat marshes to collapse. The approach can be extended to other coastal peatlands to quantify C loss and improve understanding of the influence of the biological controls on wetland C storage changes for coastal management.

Relative linkages of canopy-level CO2 fluxes with the climatic and environmental variables for US deciduous forests.

We used a simple, systematic data-analytics approach to determine the relative linkages of different climate and environmental variables with the canopy-level, half-hourly CO2 fluxes of US deciduous forests. Multivariate pattern recognition techniques of principal component and factor analyses were utilized to classify and group climatic, environmental, and ecological variables based on their similarity as drivers, examining their interrelation patterns at different sites. Explanatory partial least squares regression models were developed to estimate the relative linkages of CO2 fluxes with the climatic and environmental variables. Three biophysical process components adequately described the system-data variances. The 'radiation-energy' component had the strongest linkage with CO2 fluxes, whereas the 'aerodynamic' and 'temperature-hydrology' components were low to moderately linked with the carbon fluxes. On average, the 'radiation-energy' component showed 5 and 8 times stronger carbon flux linkages than that of the 'temperature-hydrology' and 'aerodynamic' components, respectively. The similarity of observed patterns among different study sites (representing gradients in climate, canopy heights and soil-formations) indicates that the findings are potentially transferable to other deciduous forests. The similarities also highlight the scope of developing parsimonious data-driven models to predict the potential sequestration of ecosystem carbon under a changing climate and environment. The presented data-analytics provides an objective, empirical foundation to obtain crucial mechanistic insights; complementing process-based model building with a warranted complexity. Model efficiency and accuracy (R(2) = 0.55-0.81; ratio of root-mean-square error to the observed standard deviations, RSR = 0.44-0.67) reiterate the usefulness of multivariate analytics models for gap-filling of instantaneous flux data.

Soil carbon consequences of historic hydrologic impairment and recent restoration in coastal wetlands.

Coastal wetlands provide key ecosystem services, including substantial long-term storage of atmospheric CO2 in soil organic carbon pools. This accumulation of soil organic matter is a vital component of elevation gain in coastal wetlands responding to sea-level rise. Anthropogenic activities that alter coastal wetland function through disruption of tidal exchange and wetland water levels are ubiquitous. This study assesses soil vertical accretion and organic carbon accretion across five coastal wetlands that experienced over a century of impounded hydrology, followed by restoration of tidal exchange 5 to 14 years prior to sampling. Nearby marshes that never experienced tidal impoundment served as controls with natural hydrology to assess the impact of impoundment and restoration. Dated soil cores indicate that elevation gain and carbon storage were suppressed 30-70 % during impoundment, accounting for the majority of elevation deficit between impacted and natural sites. Only one site had substantial subsidence, likely due to oxidation of soil organic matter. Vertical and carbon accretion gains were achieved at all restored sites, with carbon burial increasing from 96 ± 33 to 197 ± 64 g C m-2 y-1. The site with subsidence was able to accrete at double the rate (13 ± 5.6 mm y-1) of the natural complement, due predominantly to organic matter accumulation rather than mineral deposition, indicating these ecosystems are capable of large dynamic responses to restoration when conditions are optimized for vegetation growth. Hydrologic restoration enhanced elevation resilience and climate benefits of these coastal wetlands.

A novel index-based decision support toolkit for safe reopening following a generalized lockdown in low and middle-income countries.

While the effectiveness of lockdowns to reduce Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) transmission is well established, uncertainties remain on the lifting principles of these restrictive interventions. World Health Organization recommends case positive rate of 5% or lower as a threshold for safe reopening. However, inadequate testing capacity limits the applicability of this recommendation, especially in the low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). To develop a practical reopening strategy for LMICs, in this study, we first identify the optimal timing of safe reopening by exploring accessible epidemiological data of 24 countries during the initial COVID-19 surge. We find that a safe opening can occur two weeks after the crossover of daily infection and recovery rates while maintaining a negative trend in daily new cases. Epidemiologic SIRM model-based example simulation supports our findings. Finally, we develop an easily interpretable large-scale reopening (LSR) index, which is an evidence-based toolkit-to guide/inform reopening decision for LMICs.

Ecological parameter reductions, environmental regimes, and characteristic process diagram of carbon dioxide fluxes in coastal salt marshes.

We investigated the ecological parameter reductions (termed "similitudes") and characteristic patterns of the net uptake fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in coastal salt marshes using dimensional analysis method from fluid mechanics and hydraulic engineering. Data collected during May-October, 2013 from four salt marshes in Waquoit Bay and adjacent estuary, Massachusetts, USA were utilized to evaluate the theoretically-derived dimensionless flux and various ecological driver numbers. Two meaningful dimensionless groups were discovered as the light use efficiency number (LUE = CO2 normalized by photosynthetically active radiation) and the biogeochemical number (combination of soil temperature, porewater salinity, and atmospheric pressure). A semi-logarithmic plot of the dimensionless numbers indicated the emergence of a characteristic diagram represented by three distinct LUE regimes (high, transitional, and low). The high regime corresponded to the most favorable (high temperature and low salinity) condition for CO2 uptake, whereas the low regime represented an unfavorable condition (low temperature and high salinity). The analysis identified two environmental thresholds (soil temperature ~ 17 °C and salinity ~ 30 ppt), which dictated the regime transitions of CO2 uptake. The process diagram and critical thresholds provide important insights into the CO2 uptake potential of coastal wetlands in response to changes in key environmental drivers.