Effect of Aspirin on All-Cause Mortality in the Healthy Elderly.

BACKGROUND: In the primary analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, now published in the Journal, we report that the daily use of aspirin did not provide a benefit with regard to the primary end point of disability-free survival among older adults. A numerically higher rate of the secondary end point of death from any cause was observed with aspirin than with placebo. METHODS: From 2010 through 2014, we enrolled community-dwelling persons in Australia and the United States who were 70 years of age or older (or ≥65 years of age among blacks and Hispanics in the United States) and did not have cardiovascular disease, dementia, or disability. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 100 mg of enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. Deaths were classified according to the underlying cause by adjudicators who were unaware of trial-group assignments. Hazard ratios were calculated to compare mortality between the aspirin group and the placebo group, and post hoc exploratory analyses of specific causes of death were performed. RESULTS: Of the 19,114 persons who were enrolled, 9525 were assigned to receive aspirin and 9589 to receive placebo. A total of 1052 deaths occurred during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up. The risk of death from any cause was 12.7 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group and 11.1 events per 1000 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.29). Cancer was the major contributor to the higher mortality in the aspirin group, accounting for 1.6 excess deaths per 1000 person-years. Cancer-related death occurred in 3.1% of the participants in the aspirin group and in 2.3% of those in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.56). CONCLUSIONS: Higher all-cause mortality was observed among apparently healthy older adults who received daily aspirin than among those who received placebo and was attributed primarily to cancer-related death. In the context of previous studies, this result was unexpected and should be interpreted with caution. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging and others; ASPREE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01038583 .).

Association of Midlife Cardiovascular Risk Factors With the Risk of Heart Failure Subtypes Later in Life.

BACKGROUND: Independent associations between cardiovascular risk factor exposures during midlife and later life development of heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) versus reduced EF (HFrEF) have not been previously studied. METHODS: We pooled data from 4 US cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Cardiovascular Health, Health , Aging and Body Composition, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and imputed annual risk factor trajectories for body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose starting from age 40 years. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during midlife and later life were calculated and analyzed for associations with the development of HFpEF or HFrEF. RESULTS: A total of 23,861 participants were included (mean age at first in-person visit, 61.8 ±1 0.2 years; 56.6% female). During a median follow-up of 12 years, there were 3666 incident HF events, of which 51% had EF measured, including 934 with HFpEF and 739 with HFrEF. A high midlife systolic blood pressure and low midlife high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with HFrEF, and a high midlife body mass index, systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, and glucose were associated with HFpEF. After adjusting for later life exposures, only midlife pulse pressure remained independently associated with HFpEF. CONCLUSIONS: Midlife exposure to cardiovascular risk factors are differentially associated with HFrEF and HFpEF later in life. Having a higher pulse pressure during midlife is associated with a greater risk for HFpEF but not HFrEF, independent of later life exposures.

Blood amyloid levels and risk of dementia in the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory Study (GEMS): A longitudinal analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Both high or low plasma amyloid levels have been associated with risk of dementia in nondemented subjects. METHODS: We examined baseline plasma ß-amyloid (Aß) levels in relationship to incident dementia during a period of 8.5 years in 2840 subjects age >75 years; 2381 were cognitively normal (CN) and 450 mild cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Increased plasma Aß1-40 and Aß1-42 levels were associated with gender (women), age, low education, creatinine levels, history of stroke, and hypertension. CN participants who developed dementia had lower levels of Aß1-42 and Aß1-42/Aß1-40 ratio compared with those who did not. Aß levels did not predict dementia in mild cognitive impairment participants. DISCUSSION: There was an inverse association between Aß1-42 and Aß1-42/Aß1-40 ratio to risk of dementia in CN participants. Cerebral and cardiovascular disease and renal function are important determinants of increased Aß levels and must be considered in evaluations of relationship of plasma Aß and subsequent risk of dementia.

Three Year Functional Trajectories Among Old Age Survivors and Decedents: Dying Eliminates a Racial Disparity.

BACKGROUND: Long-term trajectories of disability comparing decedents and survivors and differences by race have not been assessed. OBJECTIVE: To examine self-reported difficulty in walking a quarter mile and the need for assistance with activities of daily living (ADL) beginning 3 years before death among decedents and age- and gender-matched survivors. DESIGN: A case-control sample drawn from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study (Health ABC). Data were collected between 1997 and 2015. PARTICIPANTS: Of the 1991 participants who died by the end of the study, 1410 were interviewed for 3 years prior to death, including an interview 6 months before dying. Of these, 1379 decedents were successfully matched by age and gender with 1379 survivors and tracked over the same 3-year period. MAIN MEASURES: Self-reported difficulty walking a quarter mile and the ability to perform activities of daily living without assistance (bathing, dressing, transferring). KEY RESULTS: Decedents (mean age at death, 84) increased in mobility disability from 44.1% 3 years before death to 69.4% 6 months before death and in ADL disability from 32.9% to 58.4%. Among survivors, mobility disability increased from 31.4% to 40.7% and ADL disability from 17.4% to 31.4%. The proportion of decedents and survivors with mobility disability differed significantly in adjusted models at all assessment points (p < 0.0001). African-American survivors were significantly more disabled than White survivors at all points (p < 0.0001), but trajectories of disability among decedents did not differ by race in the last 18 months of life (p = 0.35). CONCLUSIONS: Trajectories of self-reported disability differ between survivors and decedents. Older adults who died were more disabled 3 years before death and also had a greater risk of increasing disability over each subsequent 6-month assessment. The gap in disability between African Americans and Whites was erased in the final 1 to 1.5 years before death.

Study of Cardiovascular Health Outcomes in the Era of Claims Data: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, the diagnostic codes from administrative claims data are being used as clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) were used to compare event rates and risk factor associations between adjudicated hospitalized cardiovascular events and claims-based methods of defining events. The outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure were defined in 3 ways: the CHS adjudicated event (CHS[adj]), selected International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition diagnostic codes only in the primary position for Medicare claims data from the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS[1st]), and the same selected diagnostic codes in any position (CMS[any]). Conventional claims-based methods of defining events had high positive predictive values but low sensitivities. For instance, the positive predictive value of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition code 410.x1 for a new acute MI in the first position was 90.6%, but this code identified only 53.8% of incident MIs. The observed event rates for CMS[1st] were low. For MI, the incidence was 14.9 events per 1000 person-years for CHS[adj] MI, 8.6 for CMS[1st] MI, and 12.2 for CMS[any] MI. In general, cardiovascular disease risk factor associations were similar across the 3 methods of defining events. Indeed, traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were also associated with all first hospitalizations not resulting from an MI. CONCLUSIONS: The use of diagnostic codes from claims data as clinical events, especially when restricted to primary diagnoses, leads to an underestimation of event rates. Additionally, claims-based events data represent a composite end point that includes the outcome of interest and selected (misclassified) nonevent hospitalizations.

Infection hospitalization increases risk of dementia in the elderly.

OBJECTIVES: Severe infections, often requiring ICU admission, have been associated with persistent cognitive dysfunction. Less severe infections are more common and whether they are associated with an increased risk of dementia is unclear. We determined the association of pneumonia hospitalization with risk of dementia in well-functioning older adults. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a randomized multicenter trial to determine the effect of Gingko biloba on incident dementia. SETTING: Five academic medical centers in the United States. SUBJECTS: Healthy community volunteers (n = 3,069) with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified pneumonia hospitalizations using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition-Coding Manual codes and validated them in a subset. Less than 3% of pneumonia cases necessitated ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or vasopressor support. Dementia was adjudicated based on neuropsychological evaluation, neurological examination, and MRI. Two hundred twenty-one participants (7.2%) incurred at least one hospitalization with pneumonia (mean time to pneumonia = 3.5 yr). Of these, dementia was developed in 38 (17%) after pneumonia, with half of these cases occurring 2 years after the pneumonia hospitalization. Hospitalization with pneumonia was associated with increased risk of time to dementia diagnosis (unadjusted hazard ratio = 2.3; CI, 1.6-3.2; p < 0.0001). The association remained significant when adjusted for age, sex, race, study site, education, and baseline mini-mental status examination (hazard ratio = 1.9; CI, 1.4-2.8; p < 0.0001). Results were unchanged when additionally adjusted for smoking, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and preinfection functional status. Results were similar using propensity analysis where participants with pneumonia were matched to those without pneumonia based on age, probability of developing pneumonia, and similar trajectories of cognitive and physical function prior to pneumonia (adjusted prevalence rates, 91.7 vs 65 cases per 1,000 person-years; adjusted prevalence rate ratio = 1.6; CI, 1.06-2.7; p = 0.03). Sensitivity analyses showed that the higher risk also occurred among those hospitalized with other infections. CONCLUSION: Hospitalization with pneumonia is associated with increased risk of dementia.

Estimating Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial Participant Posttrial Survival Using Pooled Epidemiologic Cohort Data.

Background Intensive systolic blood pressure treatment (<120 mm Hg) in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) improved survival compared with standard treatment (<140 mm Hg) over a median follow-up of 3.3 years. We projected life expectancy after observed follow-up in SPRINT using SPRINT-eligible participants in the NHLBI-PCS (National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Pooled Cohorts Study). Methods and Results We used propensity scores to weight SPRINT-eligible NHLBI-PCS participants to resemble SPRINT participants. In SPRINT participants, we estimated in-trial survival (<4 years) using a time-based flexible parametric survival model. In SPRINT-eligible NHLBI-PCS participants, we estimated posttrial survival (≥4 years) using an age-based flexible parametric survival model and applied the formula to SPRINT participants to predict posttrial survival. We projected overall life expectancy for each SPRINT participant and compared it to parametric regression (eg, Gompertz) projections based on SPRINT data alone. We included 8584 SPRINT and 10 593 SPRINT-eligible NHLBI-PCS participants. After propensity weighting, mean (SD) age was 67.9 (9.4) and 68.2 (8.8) years, and 35.5% and 37.6% were women in SPRINT and NHLBI-PCS, respectively. Using the NHLBI-PCS-based method, projected mean life expectancy from randomization was 21.0 (7.4) years with intensive and 19.1 (7.2) years with standard treatment. Using the Gompertz regression, life expectancy was 11.2 (2.3) years with intensive and 10.5 (2.2) years with standard treatment. Conclusions Combining SPRINT and NHLBI-PCS observed data likely offers a more realistic estimate of life expectancy than parametrically extrapolating SPRINT data alone. These results offer insight into the potential long-term effectiveness of intensive SBP goals.

Identifying mild cognitive impairment at baseline in the Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory (GEM) study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify, characterize and compare the frequency of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subtypes at baseline in a large, late-life cohort (n = 3063) recruited into a dementia prevention trial. METHOD: A retrospective, data-algorithmic approach was used to classify participants as cognitively normal or MCI with corresponding subtype (e.g. amnestic vs. non-amnestic, single domain vs. multiple domain) based on a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological test scores, with and without Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) global score included in the algorithm. RESULTS: Overall, 15.7% of cases (n = 480) were classified as MCI. Amnestic MCI was characterized as unilateral memory impairment (i.e. only verbal or only visual memory impaired) or bilateral memory impairment (i.e. both verbal and visual memory impaired). All forms of amnestic MCI were almost twice as frequent as non-amnestic MCI (10.0% vs. 5.7%). Removing the CDR = 0.5 ('questionable dementia') criterion resulted in a near doubling of the overall MCI frequency to 28.1%. CONCLUSION: Combining CDR and cognitive test data to classify participants as MCI resulted in overall MCI and amnestic MCI frequencies consistent with other large community-based studies, most of which relied on the 'gold standard' of individual case review and diagnostic consensus. The present data-driven approach may prove to be an effective alternative for use in future large-scale dementia prevention trials.

Ginkgo biloba for preventing cognitive decline in older adults: a randomized trial.

CONTEXT: The herbal product Ginkgo biloba is taken frequently with the intention of improving cognitive health in aging. However, evidence from adequately powered clinical trials is lacking regarding its effect on long-term cognitive functioning. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether G. biloba slows the rates of global or domain-specific cognitive decline in older adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory (GEM) study, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial of 3069 community-dwelling participants aged 72 to 96 years, conducted in 6 academic medical centers in the United States between 2000 and 2008, with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. INTERVENTION: Twice-daily dose of 120-mg extract of G. biloba (n = 1545) or identical-appearing placebo (n = 1524). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of change over time in the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MSE), in the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS-Cog), and in neuropsychological domains of memory, attention, visual-spatial construction, language, and executive functions, based on sums of z scores of individual tests. RESULTS: Annual rates of decline in z scores did not differ between G. biloba and placebo groups in any domains, including memory (0.043; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.034-0.051 vs 0.041; 95% CI, 0.032-0.050), attention (0.043; 95% CI, 0.037-0.050 vs 0.048; 95% CI, 0.041-0.054), visuospatial abilities (0.107; 95% CI, 0.097-0.117 vs 0.118; 95% CI, 0.108-0.128), language (0.045; 95% CI, 0.037-0.054 vs 0.041; 95% CI, 0.033-0.048), and executive functions (0.092; 95% CI, 0.086-0.099 vs 0.089; 95% CI, 0.082-0.096). For the 3MSE and ADAS-Cog, rates of change varied by baseline cognitive status (mild cognitive impairment), but there were no differences in rates of change between treatment groups (for 3MSE, P = .71; for ADAS-Cog, P = .97). There was no significant effect modification of treatment on rate of decline by age, sex, race, education, APOE*E4 allele, or baseline mild cognitive impairment (P > .05). CONCLUSION: Compared with placebo, the use of G. biloba, 120 mg twice daily, did not result in less cognitive decline in older adults with normal cognition or with mild cognitive impairment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00010803.

Fluctuating Physical Function and Health: Their Role at the End of Life.

BACKGROUND: Our recent research suggests that a fluctuating trajectory, previously thought to be the experience of those dying with heart failure or chronic lung disease, may not accurately characterize the end of life for these patients. OBJECTIVE: We sought to further examine health and function to investigate whether other measures or a different time frame captures the purported exacerbation/recovery trajectory associated with these diseases. DESIGN: Function and health data were collected prospectively at six-month intervals for 17 years during the Heath, Aging and Body Composition Study. SUBJECTS AND MEASURES: We analyzed self-reported mobility, health status, and health care utilization for 1410 decedents, defining high fluctuations as transitions in two or more adjacent assessment pairs during the last three years of life. RESULTS: Among decedents, only 207 (14.7%) reported two or more changes in mobility during the last three years of life; and 586 (41.6%) reported more than two transitions in self-reported health during the period. This fluctuation was not associated with any clinical condition in the three years before death, but decedents with chronic heart failure or chronic lung disease reported significantly more changes in mobility (odds ratio = 1.15, p = 0.025) for a longer follow-up period. Decedents with heart failure were also more likely to report hospital stays in the last three years of life. CONCLUSIONS: Fluctuations in mobility and self-reported health do not differ by clinical condition in the three years before death, but people dying with chronic heart failure or chronic lung disease are more frequently hospitalized during this period and experience more unstable mobility for a longer period of observation.

Associations of Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Levels During Young Adulthood With Later Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol are major modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but effects of exposures during young adulthood on later life CVD risk have not been well quantified. OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to evaluate the independent associations between young adult exposures to risk factors and later life CVD risk, accounting for later life exposures. METHODS: The authors pooled data from 6 U.S. cohorts with observations spanning the life course from young adulthood to later life, and imputed risk factor trajectories for low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterols, systolic and diastolic BP starting from age 18 years for every participant. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during young (age 18 to 39 years) and later adulthood (age ≥40 years) were calculated and linked to subsequent risks of coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), or stroke. RESULTS: A total of 36,030 participants were included. During a median follow-up of 17 years, there were 4,570 CHD, 5,119 HF, and 2,862 stroke events. When young and later adult risk factors were considered jointly in the model, young adult LDL ≥100 mg/dl (compared with <100 mg/dl) was associated with a 64% increased risk for CHD, independent of later adult exposures. Similarly, young adult SBP ≥130 mm Hg (compared with <120 mm Hg) was associated with a 37% increased risk for HF, and young adult DBP ≥80 mm Hg (compared with <80 mm Hg) was associated with a 21% increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative young adult exposures to elevated systolic BP, diastolic BP and LDL were associated with increased CVD risks in later life, independent of later adult exposures.

Coronary artery calcium, carotid artery wall thickness, and cardiovascular disease outcomes in adults 70 to 99 years old.

Few population studies have evaluated the associations of both coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid ultrasound with cardiovascular events, especially in adults >70 years of age. At the Pittsburgh Field Center of the Cardiovascular Health Study, 559 men and women, mean age 80.2 (SD 4.1) years had CAC score assessed by electron beam computerized tomographic scan and common and internal carotid artery intimal medial wall thickness (CCA-IMT and ICA-IMT) by carotid ultrasound between 1998 and 2000 and were followed for total and incident cardiovascular disease events through June 2003. Crude rates and hazard ratios for total and incident events were examined with and without adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. After 5 years, there were 127 cardiovascular disease events, 48 myocardial infarctions or cardiovascular disease deaths, and 28 strokes or stroke deaths. Total and incident cardiovascular disease event rates were higher in each quartile of CAC and CCA-IMT, but not of ICA-IMT. For total cardiovascular disease, the adjusted hazard ratio for the fourth versus first quartile of CAC was 2.1 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 3.9) and for CCA-IMT was 2.3 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.1). The CCA-IMT was more strongly related to stroke risk than was CAC, although CAC was also an important predictor of stroke. No significant gender differences were found, although relative risks appeared to be stronger in women, especially for stroke. In conclusion, in adults >70 years of age, CAC and CCA-IMT had similar hazard ratios for total cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease. The CCA-IMT was more strongly related to stroke than CAC, but CAC was also a predictor of stroke.

Ginkgo biloba for prevention of dementia: a randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: Ginkgo biloba is widely used for its potential effects on memory and cognition. To date, adequately powered clinical trials testing the effect of G. biloba on dementia incidence are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To determine effectiveness of G. biloba vs placebo in reducing the incidence of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer disease (AD) in elderly individuals with normal cognition and those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial conducted in 5 academic medical centers in the United States between 2000 and 2008 with a median follow-up of 6.1 years. Three thousand sixty-nine community volunteers aged 75 years or older with normal cognition (n = 2587) or MCI (n = 482) at study entry were assessed every 6 months for incident dementia. INTERVENTION: Twice-daily dose of 120-mg extract of G. biloba (n = 1545) or placebo (n = 1524). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident dementia and AD determined by expert panel consensus. RESULTS: Five hundred twenty-three individuals developed dementia (246 receiving placebo and 277 receiving G. biloba) with 92% of the dementia cases classified as possible or probable AD, or AD with evidence of vascular disease of the brain. Rates of dropout and loss to follow-up were low (6.3%), and the adverse effect profiles were similar for both groups. The overall dementia rate was 3.3 per 100 person-years in participants assigned to G. biloba and 2.9 per 100 person-years in the placebo group. The hazard ratio (HR) for G. biloba compared with placebo for all-cause dementia was 1.12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-1.33; P = .21) and for AD, 1.16 (95% CI, 0.97-1.39; P = .11). G. biloba also had no effect on the rate of progression to dementia in participants with MCI (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.85-1.50; P = .39). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, G. biloba at 120 mg twice a day was not effective in reducing either the overall incidence rate of dementia or AD incidence in elderly individuals with normal cognition or those with MCI. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00010803.

Time-varying social support and time to death in the cardiovascular health study.

OBJECTIVES: There is a consensus that social connectedness is integral for a long, healthy life. However, studies of social support and survival have primarily relied on baseline social support measures, potentially missing the effects of fluctuations of perceived support over time. This is especially important for older adults who experience increased changes in disability. This study examined whether among older adults time-varying perceived social support was associated with time to death (main effect model of support) and whether time-varying disability was a modifier (stress-buffering model of support). Gender and marital status were also examined as modifiers. METHODS: Older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study (N = 5,201) completed self- report measures of demographics and psychological health and clinical risk factors for mortality at baseline (1989-1990). Perceived social support and disability were measured from baseline through Wave 11 (1998-1999). Cox regression of time to death with time-varying covariates was performed. RESULTS: Time-varying as well as baseline-only perceived social support was associated with greater survival in the unadjusted models but not after adjustment. Gender, marital status, and time-varying disability were not significant modifiers. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast with the previously reported association between baseline individual differences in perceived social support and time to death, older adults' baseline-only and fluctuating perceptions of perceived support over time were not associated with time to death after adjustment for other clinical physical and psychological risk factors. Research is needed to identify other relationship factors that may be more informative as time-varying predictors of health and longevity in large longitudinal data sets. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Racial Differences in Cause-Specific Mortality Between Community-Dwelling Older Black and White Adults.

OBJECTIVES: To understand which causes of death are higher in black than white community-dwelling older adults and determine whether differences in baseline risk factors explain racial differences in mortality. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study (Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study). SETTING: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Memphis, Tennessee. PARTICIPANTS: Black and white men and women aged 70 to 79 during recruitment (N=3,075; 48% men, 42% black) followed for a median of 13 years. MEASUREMENTS: A committee of physicians adjudicated cause of death, which was categorized as cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, cancer, dementia, pulmonary, infection, kidney, or other causes. Using competing risks regression, we examined whether known risk factors at baseline (demographic characteristics, smoking, body mass index, chronic diseases, physical function, cognition) could explain racial differences in cause-specific mortality risk. RESULTS: During follow-up, 1,991 (65%) participants died. Black participants died at higher rates from cancer (hazard ratio (HR)=1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.14-1.63), kidney disease (HR=2.09, 95% CI=1.16-3.74), stroke (HR=1.31, 95% CI=0.98-1.76); and CVD (HR=1.16, 95% CI=0.98-1.37). Poorer physical and cognitive performance at baseline among black participants explained most of the racial difference in risks of dying from kidney disease, stroke, and CVD but not cancer. When examining types of cancer deaths, black participants died at higher rates from multiple myeloma, pancreatic cancer, and prostate cancer, which baseline risk factors did not explain either. CONCLUSION: Factors contributing to poorer physical and cognitive performance in similarly aged black men and women could be targets to reduce excess mortality from CVD, stroke, and kidney disease. More work is needed to identify factors contributing to cancer mortality disparities.

Mobility Trajectories at the End of Life: Comparing Clinical Condition and Latent Class Approaches.

OBJECTIVES: To assess mobility disability trajectories before death in a large sample of very old adults using two analytical approaches to determine how well they corresponded. DESIGN: Decedent sample from the Health, Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study. Data were collected between 1997 and 2015. SETTING: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Memphis, Tennessee. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals randomly selected from well-functioning white Medicare beneficiaries and all black community residents meeting age criteria (70-79) (N = 3,075). MEASUREMENTS: Participants were interviewed in person or by phone at least every six months throughout the study. Of the 1,991 participants who died by the end of the study, 1,410 had been interviewed for 3 years before death, including an interview 6 months before dying. We analyzed self-reported mobility collected prospectively at 6-month intervals during the last 3 years of life. We derived trajectories in two ways: by averaging decline within decedent groups prespecified according to clinical conditions and by estimating trajectory models using maximum-likelihood semiparametric modeling. RESULTS: Ninety-eight percent of decedents were classified according to 4 prespecified clinical conditions (sudden death, terminal, organ failure, frailty), which produced groups with different characteristics. Five disability trajectories were identified: late decline, progressive disability, moderate disability, early decline, and persistent disability. Disability trajectory and clinical condition grouping confirmed previous research but were only marginally related. CONCLUSION: Derived disability trajectories and grouping according to clinical condition provide useful information about different facets of the end-of-life experience. The lack of fit between them suggests a need for greater attention to heterogeneity in disability in the period before death.

Development of a standardized definition for clinically significant bleeding in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding is the major risk of aspirin treatment, especially in the elderly. A consensus definition for clinically significant bleeding (CSB) in aspirin primary prevention trials is lacking in the literature. METHODS: This paper details the development, modification, application, and quality control of a definition for clinically significant bleeding in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial, a primary prevention trial of aspirin in 19,114 community-dwelling elderly men and women. In ASPREE a confirmed bleeding event needed to meet criteria both for substantiated bleeding and clinical significance. Substantiated bleeding was defined as: 1) observed bleeding, 2) a reasonable report of symptoms of bleeding, 3) medical, nursing or paramedical report, or 4) imaging evidence. Bleeding was defined as clinically significant if it: 1) required transfusion of red blood cells, 2) required admission to the hospital for >24 h, or prolonged a hospitalization, with bleeding as the principal reason, 3) required surgery to stop the bleeding, or 4) resulted in death. Bleeding sites were subclassified as upper gastrointestinal, lower gastrointestinal, intracranial (hemorrhagic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, subdural hematoma, extradural hematoma, or other), or other sites. Potential events were retrieved from medical records, self-report or notification from treating doctors. Two reviewers adjudicated each event using electronic adjudication software, and discordant cases were reviewed by a third reviewer. Adjudication rules evolved to become more strictly defined as the trial progressed and decision rules were added to assist with frequent scenarios such as post-operative bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provides a detailed methodologic description of the development of a standardized definition for clinically significant bleeding and provides a benchmark for development of a consensus definition for future aspirin primary prevention trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ASPREE is registered on the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number Register (ISRCTN83772183) and on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583).

Death rates and causes of death after bariatric surgery for Pennsylvania residents, 1995 to 2004.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery has emerged as the most effective treatment for class III obesity (body mass index, >or=40). The number of operations continues to increase. We measured case fatality and death rates by time since operation, sex, age, specific causes of death, and mortality rates. DESIGN AND SETTING: Data on all bariatric operations performed on Pennsylvania residents between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2004, were obtained from the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost and Containment Council. Matching mortality data were obtained from the Division of Vital Records, Pennsylvania State Department of Health. OUTCOME MEASURES: Age- and sex-specific death rates after bariatric surgery. RESULTS: There were 440 deaths after 16 683 operations (2.6%). Age-specific death rates were much higher in men than in women and increased with age. Age- and sex-specific death rates after bariatric surgery were substantially higher than comparable rates for the age- and sex-matched Pennsylvania population. The 1-year case fatality rate was approximately 1% and nearly 6% at 5 years. Less than 1% of deaths occurred within the first 30 days. Fatality increased substantially with age (especially among those > 65 years), with little evidence of change over time. Coronary heart disease was the leading cause of death overall, being cited as the cause of death in 76 patients (19.2%). Therapeutic complications accounted for 38 of 150 natural deaths within the first 30 days, including pulmonary embolism in 31 (20.7%), coronary heart disease in 26 (17.3%), and sepsis in 17 (11.3%). CONCLUSIONS: There was a substantial excess of deaths owing to suicide and coronary heart disease. Careful monitoring of bariatric surgical procedures and more intense follow-up could likely reduce the long-term case fatality rate in this patient population.

Association of Holter-Derived Heart Rate Variability Parameters With the Development of Congestive Heart Failure in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether Holter-based parameters of heart rate variability (HRV) are independently associated with incident heart failure among older adults in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) as evidenced by an improvement in the predictive power of the Health Aging and Body Composition Heart Failure (Health ABC) score. BACKGROUND: Abnormal HRV, a marker of autonomic dysfunction, has been associated with multiple adverse cardiovascular outcomes but not the development of congestive heart failure (CHF). METHODS: Asymptomatic CHS participants with interpretable 24-h baseline Holter recordings were included (n = 1,401). HRV measures and premature ventricular contraction (PVC) counts were compared between participants with (n = 260) and without (n = 1,141) incident CHF on follow-up. Significantly different parameters between groups were added to the components of the Health ABC score, a validated CHF prediction tool, using stepwise Cox regression. RESULTS: The final model included components of the Health ABC score, In PVC counts (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07 to 1.19; p < 0.001) and the following HRV measures: abnormal heart rate turbulence onset (aHR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.11 to 2.08; p = 0.009), short-term fractal scaling exponent (aHR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.53; p < 0.001), in very low frequency power (aHR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.60; p = 0.037), and coefficient of variance of N-N intervals (aHR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.90 to 0.99; p = 0.009). The C-statistic for the final model was significantly improved over the Health ABC model alone (0.77 vs. 0.73; p = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal HRV parameters were significantly and independently associated with incident CHF in asymptomatic, older adults. When combined with increased PVCs, HRV improved the predictive power of the Health ABC score.

Are Preferences for Aggressive Medical Treatment Associated with Healthcare Utilization in the Very Old?

Objectives: To examine the relationship between end-of-life (EOL) treatment preferences and recent hospitalization or emergency department (ED) care in the very old. Design: Quarterly telephone follow-up of participants in the EOL in the Very Old cohort. Setting: The EOL in the Very Old Age cohort drew from 1403 participants in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study who were alive in year 15 of follow-up. 87.5% (n = 1227) were successfully recontacted and enrolled. Participants: Preferences for treatment at the EOL and reported hospital and ED use were examined for 1118 participants (18% involving proxy reports) over 6 months, 1021 (16% with proxy reports) over 12 months, and 945 (23% with proxy reports) over 18 months in 6-month intervals. Measurements: Preferences for eight EOL treatments, elicited once each year; hospitalization and ED use reported every six months. Results: Preferences for more aggressive treatment (endorsing ≥5 of 8 options) were not significantly associated with inpatient or ED treatment. Inpatient and ED treatment were not associated with changes in preferences for aggressive EOL treatment over 12 months. Conclusion: Alternative measures that tap attitudes toward routine care, rather than EOL treatment preferences, may be more highly associated with healthcare utilization.